The Current Status, Problems and Countermeasures

of Chinese population
Li Ding

Zhang Yan

School of Public Administration

Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Chengdu, P.R.China
liding@swufe.edu.cn

School of Public Administration

Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Chengdu, P.R.China
yan_zhang0707@163.com

AbstractThe population problem is the significant problem that

our country faces with for long-term in the primary stage of
socialism; it is the key factor that restricted our countrys
economic and social development. Since entering 21st century,
China has gotten rid of the strange cycle of population growth,
but has to face a new round of population issues now. This paper
first introduced the current state of The Chinese population:
number is large, quality is low, the growing population aging and
so on. Then we analyzed the above issues, referred to the Leslie
population prediction models regarding the population quantity.
Established the mathematic model, forecasted that Chinas total
population would reach 1.37759 billion by 2021. Predicted the
trend of aging and the reason of it was put forward. Low quality
of the population is still a huge problem our country faced with,
this article analyses the current status first, then presents some
suggestions.
Keywords-component; population; aging; population quality;
mathematic model (key words)

I.

THE CURRENT STATUS OF CHINESE

POPULATION

Figure 2: The figure of aging

Data come from: population statistics, China Statistics
Press, 2009 edition.
The sixth population census showed :Among 0-14-Year-old
people making up 16.60 percent of the total; Among 15-59Year-old people making up 70.14 percent of the total; Over 60
Year-old people making up 13.26 percent of the total, among
which over 65 year-olds making up 8.87 percent of the total.
Our country has entered the aging society absolutely.
II.

A. Large population base

Chinas huge population has always been one of the major
conditions, according to the 2010 census data, the total
population of china is 1,370,536,875 included Hong Kong,
Macao and Taiwan. And the total population that census
registration of the 31 provinces and soldiers on service is
1,339,724,852.
B. The growing population aging
In recent years, the aged population has taken a growing
share with the total population increasing and the phenomena
of aging increasingly serious. Population aging is a process that
the proportion of elderly population increases and the structure
of total population changes in a country or region. According
to international standard, when the number of the elderly
people aged over 60 years shared 10% or that aged over 65
years shared 7% of all, it can be referred to as aging society.
As the following figure 1 shows:

THE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION OF

POPULATION

A. Population
We've already described the current situation of China's
population, and Population growth problem is the question we
must first consider. Through the use of mathematical models of
the following, forecasting of the number of the Short-term
people.
1) Objective analysis:
To forecast the number of Chinese population in
short-term, we collect the number of the urban and rural
ratio of different groups of population, mortality and
fertility rate of women in all age groups of data. Set
function for population increment.
2) Some hypothesis of the model:
Only one child per child

Only consider the number of female

3) Production of Parameter

978-1-4577-0536-6/11/$26.00 2011 IEEE

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the
sex
the
the

The Population of i+1-year-old group in m+1 period is the

number of i-year-old group in m period, that is to say

cfd i I-aged urban women's mortality

cfsi Matrix of the survival rate of urban women in each
age group
cmf i : Matrix of the survival rate of urban men in each age
group

cx(m) : Distribution vector of urban population of period

m in each age group

xi +1 (m + 1) = si xi (m) i=0,1,290+

(2)

Let distribution vector by age in period m is:

x(m) = [x1 (m), x 2 (m),...., x n (m)

Further,

]T

(3)

bi (m) will be divided into:

i2

hi = 1

fa : The average ratio of female

bi (m) = p(m)hi

cxi (m) The number of urban population aged I of

hi is procreation pattern.

(4)

i =i1

period m

i2

p (m) = bi (m)

p (m) Total fertility rate of period m

(5)

i = i1

ch Matrix of urban women's fertility patterns

cbi (m) The urban women's fertility ratio of aged I of

period m

x(m) The country's total population of period m

p (m) is the average number of daughters born by all

women of childbearing age. If the fertility rate of childbearing
age remain unchanged, p (m) is the average number of
daughters born by all i+1-year-old women in m period of
childbearing age, the number of total fertility. It is the main
parameters to control the population.

xi (m) The number of country's total population aged I

We still use x (m) as the distribution of the female

population vector. The same as formula (3) showed. To clearly

mf The ratio of male to female

show the function of p (m)  we constitute a matrix of

of period m

Symbols explanation:

c is city , z is urban, v is village s is the survival rate

d is mortality x is the number of population
4) Model:
Divide the population into n groups by age, And each year
as a group. Only consider the female population. Assuming a
one-year-old age as a group, Put one year as a period. Let the
number
of
I-year-old
woman
in
m
year

x ( m)

is i
, i =0,1,2,...,90+, m =2001,2002,2005, let fertility
rate is associated with aging and time. The fertility rate of Iyear-old woman in m year is
bearing age is

bi (m) , the period of child-

[i1 ,i2 ] ,let death rate is associated with aging.

Let the death rate of I-year-old woman in m year is

d i , survival

s
s = 1 d i , bi and si achieved by statistics.
rate is i , then i
x (m) achieved by the following: the
Change regularity of i

Population of one-year-old group in m+1 period is sum of

multiplying numbers in each m period. that is to say
n

x1 (m + 1) = bixi(m)

reproduction

bi and survival rates s i .

0 0
s1 0

A = 0 s2

... ...
0 0

... ...
... ...
... ...
... ...
... sn 1
0 ... 0 hi1 ...
0 ... ...
...
B = .
...

...
0 ... ...

0
0
0

...
0
hi 2 0 ... 0
... ... ... 0
...

... ... ... 0

i2

Because of

bi (m) = p(m)hi , p(m)= bi (m)

i = i1

hi =

bi (m)
p ( m)

The figure made by collecting data:



(1)

i =1

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so

b) Improve the quality of population. Therefore, it is

necessary to increase the investment of education, improve
teachers and intellectuals treatment, popularize primary
education, and make an effort to improve the level of higher
education. Only to improve the cultural quality of the whole
nation, make society and economy get greater development,
could people lower fertility rates consciously.

Figure 2: The figure of urban population

thousand

Unit: ten


The figure shows: obvious decline in rural population and the
still growth of urban population, but the growth rate tends to
slow down because of the urbanization of population. To some
extent, the urbanization of population slows the growth of
total population. To sum the total population of the city, we
can get the total population continues to grow up by 2021, and
it would reach its peak number of 1.37759 billion at 2021, and
then began to decline.

2) Slow down the aging of the population

a) The establishment and improvement of the reserve
accumulation type endowment insurance in rural is a longterm benefits, and strategic countermeasures. The government
should resume the development of rural reserves endowment
insurance as soon as possible.
b) Promote the re-employment and relearning of the
aged actively. The old not only should be supported, but also
realize the goal of doing something and studying. Taking this
policy helps to ease social and economic pressure appearing
with the population aging, can reduce the thought burden of
the old, and contribute to improving the mental health of the
aged.

B. The prediction problem of aging

We want to do some forecasting for the trend of population
aging. Then we can understand better and make some useful
Countermeasures.
Objective Functions: =

90

w (k ) / w(k )
i

i = 60

c) Encourage and pull the market of the older consumer

actively, and vigorously develop the aged industry which
contains the products and services needed by the aged. The old
people in China, especially who need more special care and
service, are increasing rapidly. It provides a huge potential
market for our country, is helpful for expanding domestic
demand and promoting the development of economy, and then
can also change the consumption concept of the old.

wi (k ) i = 0,1, 2, " ,8,9 is The population of i-aged at

the k period.
w90 (k ) is the population of people 90 and over 90 years.
Put the data into the above equation, and then we can get the
result. Towns and villages are not volatile, although they also
on the rise. China's aging rate will always rise in the following
two decades.
The ratio of urban, rural and village population elderly in the
next 50 years is as follows: although the aging population may
decrease in the next 50 years, it would have prevented the
development of Chinese economy in the two decades. In order
to control its growth trend, the country needs to put in the
massive energy regarding this.
III.

c) Propaganda development situation of global

environment and the present situation, existing problems and
prospects and basic countermeasures of China sustainable
development to all the citizens, enhance suffering
consciousness, set up the overall concept in the intergrowth of
human and nature and the coordination of environment and
development, make the goal of sustainable development clear,
and enhance the confidence and responsibility to sustainable
development of the whole society.

References
[1]

[2]

THE COUNTERMEASURES TO POPULATION

PROBLEM

[3]

1) Control population
a) Strengthen the family planning work, put the work of
controlling the population into the long-term and annual plan
of the state and government at all levels in economic
construction and social development, and then places it at
equally important position with economic development.

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[4]

Tang Zhao-yun, On the Construction of the Legal System Concerning

Population Policy in China, Journal of Beijing People s Police
College(2006)
WANG JinyingFamily Planning Policy Resultsin Lower Population
Growth, China Economist2007
Christopher Wilson The Dictionary of DEMOGRAPHY, Roland Pressat
, Basil Blackwell Ltd 1985 , pp. 5254.
CEInet Statistics Database, http://db.cei.gov.cn/