DECEMBER 2015

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,017 Albertans by Smart IVR on December 3rd, 2015.
A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of
20. Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.11%; Calgary +/-3.09%; Rest of Alberta :
+/-3.07%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011
Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

ALBERTANS DIVIDED ON CLIMATE PLAN; PAN CARBON TAX

December 7, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds strong opposition to a new
proposed carbon tax with 66% of Albertans opposed to the new tax. Overall 68% oppose the provinces
climate plan but views are mixed on individual components aside from the carbon tax. With 3,017
respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/-1.78%, 19 times out of 20.
Weve consistently found opposition to new taxes in Alberta, even with the current economic climate, so it
comes as no surprise that most are against the climate plan - and in particular, the carbon tax, said Quito
Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
Support for the climate plan is strongest in Edmonton and weakest outside the two major cities . We
continue to see strong regional dierences in Alberta among this and other issues.
Albertans are more or less split on other components of the plan. 50% oppose the switch to renewable
power while 44% support it - only a 6% dierence; providing compensation to coal power energy plans is
supported by 37% but opposed by 33% - a 4% margin; and using money collected from the carbon tax to
eliminate the decit is supported by 43% and opposed by 37% - another 6% dierence.
On two other issues public opinion is more pronounced. 48% support compensation for coal-mining
communities (29% oppose it) while 62% say Albertas new climate plan will not help with future pipelines
approval.
For now at least Albertans are not convinced the climate plan will help win approval for new pipelines - but
if any pipelines are in fact approved in the near future, it would be a big win for Albertas NDP and they
could certainly frame it to their benet, nished Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the
only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

From what you have seen, heard or read, do you support the provinces new climate plan?

LEANING AND DECIDED

10%

22%

68%

TOTAL SUPPORT: 22%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

NOT SURE: 10%

TOTAL OPPOSITION: 68%

18-34
14%
11%
18%
47%
11%
457

35-49
8%
11%
22%
48%
10%
732

Edmonton
25%
20%
15%
26%
14%
991

50-64
13%
14%
26%
38%
8%
902
Calgary
12%
11%
30%
40%
7%
1005

65+
12%
18%
23%
36%
10%
926

Male Female
10%
13%
11%
13%
22%
22%
49% 39%
7%
13%
1322 1695
Rest of Alberta
8%
10%
21%
51%
10%
1021

A4

One of the main elements of the plan is an economy-wide carbon tax. Do you support a carbon tax in Alberta?

LEANING AND DECIDED

5%

29%

66%

TOTAL SUPPORT: 29%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL OPPOSITION: 66%

NOT SURE: 5%
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
11%
16%
18%
14% 17%
12%
13%
12%
13%
20% 15%
13%
12%
10%
17%
15%
8%
18%
56%
57%
48%
47% 57%
49%
7%
5%
4%
4%
3%
7%
Edmonton
27%
23%
15%
28%
6%

Calgary
17%
18%
17%
43%
5%

Rest of Alberta
10%
9%
11%
65%
5%

A5

Part of the plan calls for phasing out coal-red power plants more rapidly to reduce emissions, and ramping up
LEANING AND DECIDED
renewable power supply. Advocates say this will reduce smog and improve health in Alberta among those with
asthma, opponents say that renewable power will cost much more than coal power. Do you support or oppose
the plan to replace coal power with renewable energy?
6%

44%

50%

TOTAL SUPPORT: 44%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL OPPOSITION: 50%

18-34 35-49 50-64
23%
28%
25%
20%
16%
20%
16%
22%
18%
35%
30%
32%
7%
4%
5%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Edmonton
43%
18%
14%
16%
8%

NOT SURE: 6%
65+ Male Female
25% 24%
26%
24% 18%
20%
16% 17%
19%
30% 36%
28%
5%
5%
7%

Calgary
30%
24%
20%
23%
2%

Rest of Alberta
17%
18%
18%
41%
6%

A6

And in your opinion, should the province pay companies compensation for coal-powered electricity plants that
LEANING AND DECIDED
are shut down early under the climate plan?

30%
37%

33%

YES: 37%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NO: 33%

NOT SURE: 30%

18-34
43%
32%
25%

35-49
29%
40%
31%

Edmonton
25%
36%
39%

50-64
39%
29%
32%
Calgary
39%
39%
23%

65+
38%
26%
36%

Male Female
39%
36%
39%
26%
22%
38%
Rest of Alberta
40%
29%
31%

A8

Should the province pay compensation to coal-mining communities aected by the climate plan?

LEANING AND DECIDED

24%

48%

29%

YES: 48%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NO: 29%

NOT SURE: 24%

18-34
51%
28%
21%

35-49
43%
34%
23%

Edmonton
33%
29%
38%

50-64
51%
26%
23%
Calgary
47%
32%
21%

65+ Male Female

43% 47% 48%
22% 32%
25%
34% 22%
26%
Rest of Alberta
52%
27%
21%

A8

Should the Alberta government use money collected from the carbon tax to eliminate the decit and pay o
LEANING AND DECIDED
debt?

20%

43%

37%

YES: 43%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NO: 37%

NOT SURE: 20%

18-34
46%
34%
20%

35-49
48%
39%
13%

Edmonton
48%
32%
20%

50-64
40%
38%
22%
Calgary
43%
40%
18%

65+
31%
41%
28%

Male Female
45% 40%
39%
35%
15%
24%
Rest of Alberta
41%
38%
21%

A9

The provincial government says taking action on climate change will help the province win approval to build oil
LEANING AND DECIDED
pipelines in other provinces and countries. Do you believe Albertas climate plan will help get oilsands pipelines
built?

16%
22%

62%

YES: 16%
YES
NO
NOT SURE
YES
NO
NOT SURE

NO: 62%

NOT SURE: 22%

18-34
18%
58%
24%

35-49
12%
72%
16%

Edmonton
27%
39%
33%

50-64
17%
61%
22%
Calgary
17%
63%
19%

65+ Male Female

19% 17%
15%
51% 63%
61%
30% 20% 24%
Rest of Alberta
12%
68%
20%

A10

From what you have seen, heard or read, do you support the provinces new climate plan?
Strongly support the plan
Somewhat support the plan
Somewhat oppose the plan
Strongly oppose the plan
Not Sure
One of the main elements of the plan is an economy-wide carbon tax. Do you support a
carbon tax in Alberta?
Strongly support a carbon tax
Somewhat support a carbon tax
Somewhat oppose a carbon tax
Strongly oppose a carbon tax
Not Sure
Part of the plan calls for phasing out coal-red power plants more rapidly to reduce emissions,
and ramping up renewable power supply. Advocates say this will reduce smog and improve
health in Alberta among those with asthma, opponents say that renewable power will cost
much more than coal power. Do you support or oppose the plan to replace coal power with
renewable energy?
Strongly support the plan
Somewhat support the plan
Somewhat oppose the plan
Strongly oppose the plan
Not Sure
And in your opinion, should the province pay companies compensation for coal-powered
electricity plants that are shut down early under the climate plan?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Should the province pay compensation to coal-mining communities aected by the climate
plan?
Yes
No
Not Sure

A11

Should the Alberta government use money collected from the carbon tax to eliminate the
decit and pay o debt?
Yes
No
Not Sure
The provincial government says taking action on climate change will help the province win
approval to build oil pipelines in other provinces and countries. Do you believe Albertas
climate plan will help get oilsands pipelines built?
Yes
No
Not Sure

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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