TABLE OF CONTENTS

.....................................................................................................................................
Introduction................................................................................................................ 2
Part A.......................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Plan for collection of Primary and Secondary Data............................................3
1.2 Survey Methodology and Survey Technique......................................................4
1.3 The Questionnaire............................................................................................. 5
Part B.......................................................................................................................... 7
2.1 Information of Decision Making.........................................................................7
2.2 Analyzing the results......................................................................................... 8
2.3. Measures of Dispersion..................................................................................10
2.4 Quartiles, Percentiles, Correlation Coefficient.................................................12
Part C........................................................................................................................ 14
3.1 Graphs Using Spreadsheet.............................................................................. 14
3.2 Trend Lines Using Spreadsheet........................................................................16
Part D....................................................................................................................... 17
4.1 Information Processing Tools...........................................................................17
4.2 Preparing a Project plan and Determining a Critical path................................19
4.3 Using Financial Tools to Make a Decision.........................................................21
Conclusion................................................................................................................ 22
References................................................................................................................ 23

INTRODUCTION

Business Decision Making is one of the most useful courses for a manager-to-be,
considering the fact that decision making is the most critical aspect of managing a
firm. In this assignment, the most important tools for analyzing a business and
making decisions regarding it, have been used in various circumstances and in
various ways, giving it a complete picture of business decision making.
This assignment has been designed in such a way that a comprehensive knowledge
of the course will prove to be necessary while doing it. And thus, this assignment
has been done with all necessary calculations, providing a detailed view of the
solutions given for every problem.

PART A
1.1 PLAN FOR COLLECTION OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY DATA
In order to complete any research, data has to be collected, and it can be done in
several ways. The collected data can be classified into mainly two types:
a. Primary data
b. Secondary Data

a. Primary Data:
The data that is collected by the researcher him/herself or by anybody paid by the
researcher, right from the subject of research, is called primary Data.
Example: Survey results.
b. Secondary Data:
The data that is already present, i.e. collected by somebody else for some other
purpose, is called secondary data. Secondary data maybe present in various forms.
Example: Newspaper articles, government reports, etc.
So, basically, the data obtained by the own effort of the researcher is termed as
primary data, whereas, relevant data which have already been obtained by
someone else is classified as secondary data. (Dawson, 2009)

In order to collect primary data, we suggest the management of Travel For London
(TFL) to arrange for surveys to be conducted on the passengers of Route 23. This
has to be done by using printed questionnaires to be handed out to every
passenger who gets on board at every stop. This should be conducted for about 2-3
weeks so as to cover most of the passengers. The survey questionnaire has to be
easy, short and precise, with close-ended answers so that the passengers are not
reluctant towards the surveys, thus reducing the percentage of no-response.
The questionnaire should have the easier questions first, and then the ones which
would require comparative thinking. This should also be done at various times of the
day so that all sorts of passengers get to respond. The notice of the survey should
also be posted beforehand, so that the passengers know about it.
In case of secondary data, the researchers will have to go through any legitimate
information available over the internet, government reports, surveys carried out by
other transportation companies, newspapers, etc.

1.2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND SURVEY TECHNIQUE

Survey Methodology:
Survey is a very effective means of collecting information. As Robson says it, Survey
is suitable technique for collecting enormous amount of information in significantly
short time and assets. (Robson, 2002)
Some workers need to be hired for this work, and they will be paid. They will take
the printed questionnaires and distribute among the passengers. When they have
done taking the survey, they printed papers will be taken back by the workers from
the passengers. This will be returned to our agent, who will be present at a specified
time at a specified stop of Route 23.
Some extra survey can be done by sending some workers over to the residents of
Route 23, where they can be requested to fill up the form.

Sampling Frame:
The sample frame would be the passengers of Route 23 who travel mostly by bus.
Since around 1500 families are present around Route 23, around 300 families
should be surveyed.

Sampling Techniques:
All the information collected will be compiled. A thorough study of the information
will be done. For a systematic conduction, every 5 th house of the area will be
questioned by our representative. (Saunders, Thornhill, & Lewis, 2009) (Kish, 1995)

1.3 THE QUESTIONNAIRE

A sample of the questionnaire is provided below:

Please help us out by answering a few questions!

Date:
Time:
1. Age:
a. 15-22 b. 23-30 c. 30-40 d. above 60
2. Occupation:
3. Gender:
a. male b. female c. others
4. Annual Income:
a. 5k 10k b. 10k- 20k c. 20k-35k d. 35k-50k e. more than 50k
5. residence:
6. members in the family:
a. 1-2 b. 3-5 c. more than 5
7. marital Status:
a. married b. unmarried c. Others
8. how do you mostly travel?
a. Bus b. Train c. Car d. Foot e. Others
9. On an average, how often do you use the bus of route 23?
a. almost never b. 2-3 times a week c. once a week d. once a month e. 4-5 times a
year f. never
10. please mention the time(s) that you usually travel.
11. Do any of your family members/friends use the bus of Route 23?
a. yes b. No
12. (If answer to No. 11 is yes, then) How many?

13. How frequently do they use it?

a. almost never b. 2-3 times a week c. once a week d. twice a week e. once a month
f. 4-5 times a year e. almost everyday
14. Do you have car?
a. yes b. no
15. (If answer to no. 14 is yes, then) How many?
16. What do you think about the bus service of route no. 23?

PART B
2.1 INFORMATION OF DECISION MAKING

The following table shows the number of passengers boarding the bus service on
Route 23:
Time
700-800
800-900
900-1000
1000-1100
1100-1200
1200-1300
1300-1400
1400-1500
1500-1600
1600-1700
1700-1800
1800-1900
1900-2000
2000-2100
2100-2200
Total

Mo
n
8
11
12
7
6
6
5
2
6
8
6
6
2
2
1
88

Tue

Wed

Thurs

Fri

Sat

Sun

Total

10
10
12
8
5
3
2
6
2
3
4
5
2
2
2
76

9
8
7
8
4
2
2
4
6
7
8
8
6
2
0
81

8
8
9
9
7
4
2
3
3
4
7
6
6
1
0
77

10
7
8
1
1
3
3
3
4
4
8
6
7
10
10
85

6
8
5
2
4
4
5
4
5
4
5
9
8
10
9
88

0
1
2
8
8
10
8
10
8
5
4
4
1
0
0
69

51
53
55
43
35
32
27
32
34
35
42
44
32
27
22
564

The above table indicates the number of passengers boarding the bus weekly which
is 564. During the office hour which is 900-1000, it has a total of 55 passengers
boarding the bus throughout the week. This is so far the highest number of
boarding.

2.2 ANALYZING THE RESULTS

The table presented in 2.1 hardly gives us a lot of information on what to do in the
current situation. For this reasons, some calculations need to be done, which is
being presented in the following table:
For calculation, the total number of passengers has been divided by 7, thus
presenting the mean.
Time
700800
800900
9001000
1000
1100
1100
1200
1200
1300
1300
1400
1400
1500
1500
1600
1600
1700
1700
1800
1800
1900
1900
2000
2000

Mon
8

Tue
10

Wed
9

Thurs
8

Fri
10

Sat
6

Sun
0

Total
51

Mean
7.28571
4
7.57142
9
7.85714
3
6.14285
7

11

10

53

12

12

55

43

35

10

32

4.57142
9

27

3.85714
3

10

32

4.57142
9

34

4.85714
3

35

42

44

6.28571
4

32

4.57142
9

10

10

27

3.85714

2100
2100
2200
Total
Mean

3
1

10

22

88
5.8666
67

76
5.0666
67

81
5.4

77
5.1333
33

85
5.6666
67

88
5.8666
67

69
4.6

564

3.14285
7

The graph below can show the allotment of passengers all round the day. The chart
shows a slight rise during 900-1000, which clearly shows that since working hour
starts from 1000, most of the passengers take the bus to get to work. During 700800 and also during 800-900 people travel as well. Understandably, the curve
decreases at midday and ascends from the evening.

Passengers Every Hour

60
50
40
30
20
10

51 53 55

Passengers Every Hour

43

35 32

27

32 34 35

42 44
32

27

22

This
curve clearly shows that people board the bus during the whole day, keeping none
of the time slots vacant. This is a clear indication that the bus service of route 23
should not be stopped.

2.3. MEASURES OF DISPERSION

Variance and standard deviation are frequently used actions of dispersion.
The formula for variance is:

( X )2
n
And standard deviation is the square root of variance.
These values can be simply measured by putting the values into MS Excel using the
functions, STDEV.P( ) and VAR.P( ). But here, it has been done by stepsHere is the average sum of passengers per weeks time slot = 564/15 = 37.6.

( X )2

37.6

13.4

179.56

53

37.6

15.4

237.16

55

37.6

17.4

302.76

43

37.6

5.4

29.16

35

37.6

-2.6

6.76

32

37.6

-5.6

31.36

27

37.6

-10.6

112.36

32

37.6

-5.6

31.36

34

37.6

-3.6

12.96

35

37.6

-2.6

6.76

42

37.6

4.4

19.36

44

37.6

6.4

40.96

32

37.6

-5.6

31.36

27

37.6

-10.6

112.36

22

37.6

-15.6

243.36

43

( X )

No of observations

1397.6
15

Variance

93.2

Standard Deviation

9.65

So, here the average value of per time slot is 37.6. Variance is 93.2 and the
standard deviation is 9.65.
The mean of the passengers of each day = 556/7 = 79.4
X

( X )2

88.0

80.6

7.43

55.18

76.0

80.6

-4.57

20.90

81.0

80.6

0.43

0.18

77.0

80.6

-3.57

12.76

85.0

80.6

4.43

19.61

88.0

80.6

7.43

55.18

69.0

80.6

-11.57

133.90

( X )2

297.71

No of observations

7.0

Variance

42.5

Standard Deviation

6.52

Here, the average is 80.6. The variance is 42.5 and the standard deviation is 6.52.

2.4 QUARTILES, PERCENTILES, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

Quartiles:
Quartiles are of three types. It some random numbers are selected, arranged in
increasing order, then the number exactly in the middle is called the median. So,
the median represents 50% or half of the arranged numbers, or corresponds to 50%
percentile. (Median Value, 2003)
The median is also called the 2 nd quartile, which represents 50% percentile.
Accordingly, the 1st percentile will correspond to 25% of the percentile and the 3 rd
percentile will correspond to 75% percentile. (Mean, Variance and Standard
Deviation, 2012)
Mathematically, the quarantines can be determined using the following formula:

Q = L + [ {(K.N/4)-F} f ] a
Here,
Q= Required quartile
L= lower limit of the quartile class
N= sum total of frequencies/responses
F= cumulative frequency/responses of just below the selected quartile class
A= width of the quartile class
F= frequency or responses of the quartile class

Percentiles:
As concepts, quartiles and percentiles are extremely related. As an example, we can
say that, in a group of 10 members, Johan earns the second highest. So, Johan earns
more than 80% of the entire group. So, we say that mathematically Johan is in the
80th percentile. So, percentiles basically act as representative values, just like the
quartiles.

Co-efficient of Co-relation:
Karl Pearsons co-efficient of co-relation is something thats used to determine what
nature or characteristics are the relations between two variables of. If, during the
increase of one variable, the other variable increases, the variables have a positive

co-relation. If, during the decrease of one variable, the other variable decreases,
they still have a positive co-relation.
But, if with the increase/decrease of one variable, the other variable takes the
opposite direction, then the variables are said to have a negative co-relation.
This relation can also be understood from their values. The value of the co-efficient
can range from +1 to -1. Usually, the value lies somewhere in the middle. But if the
value exceeds 0.8, the variables are supposed to have a very strong positive
relation. If the value becomes lower than -0.8 then they have a very strong negative
relation.
If the absolute value is somewhere between 0.5 to 0.8, it is considered to have a
moderate value.
Mathematically, considering the variables as x and y, their coefficient correlation
can be determined by the formula:

r = (n xy- xy) [{nx^2-(x)^2}{ny^2-(y)^2}]

(Analysis of Karl Pearson's Co-efficient of Co-relation, 2012)
Using the Microsoft Excel, the values can be easily calculated. This concept can
readily help in case of business purposes, like relation between peoples income and
the demand for a commodity, peoples income and their preference for discount
shops, etc.

PART C
3.1 GRAPHS USING SPREADSHEET
A bar chart is drawn below showing the number of passengers availing each day by
the bus service of route no.23

Total Passengers Per Day

Sun

69

Sat

88

Fri

85

Thurs

Total Passengers Per Day

77

Wed

81

Tues

76

Mon

88
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 100

On the above bar chart, the number of passenger is on X axis and the days are on Y
axis. The chart above indicates that the highest number of passengers travels both
on Monday and Saturday equally and the number is 88. On Sunday people tend to
travel less and thus it has the lowest number of passengers which is 69. Rest of the
days has passengers that are very close in number.

And now another graph has been drawn showing the relation of the number of
passengers and the
time slot per hour.
People mostly travel at 900-1000 which is quite obvious as it is the office time.
People go to their workplace at this time so there is a slight rush at this time.
Actually the rush starts from the early morning and continuous till 1000. Again we
can see that at the afternoon more people tend to travel by bus as it is the time of
returning home. But the mid day seems to be off peak hour for the bus service.

Passengers Every Hour

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

51 53 55

Passengers Every Hour

43

35 32

27

32 34 35

42 44

32

27

22

3.2 TREND LINES USING SPREADSHEET

A scatter chart showing the number of passengers on each day is given below-

Daily Journeys
100
90

88

80

76

70

88

85

81

Daily Journeys

77

Linear (Daily Journeys)

69

Moving average (Daily

Journeys)

60
50

Moving average (Daily

Journeys)

40
30
20
10
0
0

From the chart it is clear that the bus service has fewer passengers on Sunday
which is a holiday. It has higher passengers on Monday and Saturday. Also it can be
seen that Linear line through the number of journeys is an up and down curve
where the average of daily journey is almost straight.

PART D
4.1 INFORMATION PROCESSING TOOLS
Pearsons correlation coefficient is an accepted instrument for decisive the character of relation
amid two independent variables. The number of cars that each household has is one variable. The
number of bus journey of the members is the other variable. It is obvious that the families having
more cars will have less bus journeys. The correlation coefficient has been calculated with the
help of MS Excel. In X axis, there is the number of cars each family has and in y axis , the
number of bus journeys has been put. There are 15 pairs of variables. The formula is as follows if
X & Y are the two variables:
R = (n xy- xy) [{nx^2-(x)^2}{ny^2-(y)^2}]
Here, R is the value of the coefficient & n is the total number of entries.

Cars
2
4
4
5
1
3
3
2
3
2
5

Journeys
5
1
2
0
7
5
4
5
4
6
1

3
6
2
0
Co efficient

1
0
6
10
-0.93434

Here the coefficient is -0.93434. It means the two variables have strongly negative correlation.

4.2 PREPARING A PROJECT PLAN AND DETERMINING A CRITICAL PATH

A PERT chart is a tool that is used to schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within
a project. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is another tool for determining the
minimum time required to finish a task.
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

Time
Select office site
Create organizational and financial plan
Determine personnel requirements
Design facility
Construct interior
Select personnel to move
Hire new employees
Move records, key personnel etc
Make financial arrangement with a bank
Train new personnel.

Predecessor
_
_
B
A,C
D
C
F
F
B
H,E,G

Time/Days
2
3
1
3
8
1
6
3
7
2

Mr. Anderson should complete task A and task B without any delay. When he has
done these tasks he may move to task C. And once C is done he can start with his
work D and then he can move towards with the other works. We have to determine
4 things for this

Earliest Start Time

Earliest Finish Time
Latest Start Time
Latest Finish Time

We can calculate and say that the latest finish time for task J is 17 days. We can
calculate the latest start time now by using the following formula- LS = LF t
And now the slack time of the project has to be calculated. Slack time means how
much time we can delay without delaying the whole project. It can be measured by
the formula- Slack = LS ES = LF EF
The tasks with a slack time which is zero shape the critical path.
Therefore the Critical Path is:

BCDEJ

4.3 USING FINANCIAL TOOLS TO MAKE A DECISION

NPV or Net Profit Value is an essential tool to determine whether it should be wise to
invest in a project or not. It also helps to identify the sustainability of a business.
Here, Mr. Anderson wants to shift his business from East London to Central London
due to some problems. A table showing the NPV for both the East London clinic and
the Central London clinic is shown below-

Year
0
1
2
3
4
5

East London
Clinic
-255000
90000
85000
90000
91000
110000

NPV

19202.67

Cost of
Capital
20%

Central London Clinic

-530000
40000
80000
140000
250000
320000
-110928

From the above calculation we can see that Central London clinic has a negative
NPV. It means that shifting the clinic may incur a huge loss of Mr. Anderson. On the
other hand, in spite of the increased rent, Mr. Anderson will somehow manage to
generate some profit in East London.
Payback Period
Payback period is another tool to identify which project will be more viable to
accept. By calculating in MS excel, we have found that the payback period of East
London clinic is 2.89 and the payback period of Central London is 4.06. It is known
that the project having a lower payback period should be accepted because it tends
to be more feasible. So, here East London clinic is more profitable than the Central
London Clinic. So Mr. Anderson should not shift his office to Central London if he
wants to jeep his business profitable.

CONCLUSION
The assignment has been extremely realistic and stimulating, thus urging us to
think and use the skills acquired to utilize in this piece. The practice of everything
that has been covered in this course is simply outstanding, and effective.
A lot more calculations could be placed in this assignment, but due to limitations, I
have kept the assignment short and simple. I look forward to more knowledge and
skills on Business Decision making and hope that this assignment meets the
necessary requirements.

REFERENCES

Analysis of Karl Pearson's Co-efficient of Co-relation. (2012).

Dawson. (2009).

Kish. (1995).

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation. (2012).

Median Value. (2003).

Robson. (2002).

Saunders, Thornhill, & Lewis. (2009).