This weeks headlines

Bright future for the Swedish Labour market

Overall weakness in global equity markets
Oil keeps falling
The downside of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike
OMXS30 approaching strong support at 1383SEK
MACD indicates that the market are still bearish towards Oniva Group

WEEK 51

Distress in the high-yield bond market

The bond market is in turmoil as junk bond yields have continued to
spike leading to falling bond prices. CCC rated high yield bonds
recently reached a yield of 17 percent, the highest since the
financial crisis. High yield fund outflows reached record levels for
2015 in December as investors begun to pull their money out of the
bond market. Distinguished high yield funds have decided to close
up shop and liquidate their funds because of the carnage in the
market. However, as the market continues to fall, illiquidity
becomes a bigger and bigger issue as the underlying assets have
become remarkably illiquid. The high yield market is being
pressured by a higher default rate among US companies as the
rising dollar takes a toll on industry profits. The problem in the junk
bond market however, is primarily linked to the oil slump.
The US bond market has been overheated for a long period of time,
with record issuance taking place in recent years and increasingly
complacent investors. During the good times investors got
complacent and bonds were issued to companies that should never
have received any financing. The easy credit environment resulted
in a market susceptible to exogenous events, like the recent decline
in the price of oil. Today a big chunk of the high yield market is
exposed to oil companies. As has been discussed previously, it is
likely that the price of oil will be low in the short term as long as the
supply glut remains unresolved. If the price of oil remains low for
much longer, it can lead to mass defaults in the US energy sector,
with huge consequences for the high yield market.
With persistent low oil prices and a slowing US economy, the
situation could easily turn from bad to worse in the high yield
market. As more and more investors start to realize that the
underlying assets are illiquid, it becomes increasingly likely that a

stampede to the exits will occur, which could result in a complete

meltdown. This stampede seems to have already begun, and it can
affect the stock market adversely as the US credit cycle turns.

Sweden

Stocks

Bright future for the Swedish labour market

The net of the Swedish central government payments gave a
surplus of SEK 21.8 billion in November, according to the National
Debt Office. The Debt Office's forecast was a surplus of SEK 14.6
billion. Higher tax revenues mainly explain the difference. It also
indicates that tax revenues for the full year could be higher than the
Debt Office's forecast. It is offset by the fact that even the
expenditure is expected to be higher, primarily due to additional
government grants to municipalities as a result of the refugee crisis.
Elsewhere it was announced that the Employment Service's new
forecast signed a bright future for the Swedish economy and the
labour market due to the fact that Sweden has a strong
international position. But there is no lack of challenges since we
have increasing matching problems and the labour market is about
to be more divided, said Tord Strannefors, Forecast boss at
Employment Service. The number of people employed is increasing
while the workforce continues to grow with the great asylum
immigration. This increased range is very positive for the Swedish
economy in the long term, but contribute to a higher
unemployment rate in the short term, Strannefors went further to
say. The Employment Service expects that the trend of
unemployment will continue to be concentrated to vulnerable
groups, and that the division in the labour market therefore will
become clearer. Approximately 75 percent of the registered
unemployed belong to the vulnerable groups and the proportions
of unemployed with demand skills decreases, which is making the
matching between employers and employees even more difficult.

Overall weakness in global equity markets

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P ended the week about 4 percent
lower than it closed the week before. The Swedish OMX index
performed even worse than its American counterparty with a
decline of 5.67%. One might get the feeling of Dj vu, as the
decline is taking place as it once again looks as if the Federal
Reserve is about to raise rates. Front running the FEDs decision is
the Swedish Riksbank who, considering the less dovish than
expected ECB-meeting and the resent strength in the Euro, now is
less pressured to ease further. This will be an interesting decision,
as Swedish growth figures are strong but inflation has remained
low. If the Riksbank cuts the Repo-rate further, it would signal to
the markets that it is mostly looking at inflation. While a decision
not to ease further might hurt inflation expectations, and thereby
also inflation in the long run and market participant might once
again start to question whether or not the Riksbank will be able to
reach its 2% target. Considering all this, we do expect the Riksbank
to leave the Repo-rate untouched. Regardless which decision that
eventually will be taken by both the Riksbank and the FED, one
should probably expect increased market turbulence during the
week.

Commodities
Oil keeps on falling
It was a very tough Friday for oil since it was clear that Opec wont
react to decrease the oversupply in the world. When the market
closed at Friday the Brent oil had decreased 4,3 per cent to 38,00
dollars per barrel. WTI fell by 3,2 per cent to 35,58 dollars per
barrel. This outcome meant that the past week was the worst week



of the year 2015 seen from a price trend perspective. According to
the IEA there is no light in the tunnel for a long time ahead since
they in an interview with the Marketwatch declared that they
believe that the oversupply will stand until the end of next year.
Also John Kilduff at Again Capital expressed his concern over Opecs
passive actions, when he in an interview with Bloomberg News
claimed that the hits on market will keep on coming. It was
negative that Opec did not lower the production limits at the last
meeting. Now we are seeing everyone fighting for market shares.
Gold ended the week with a 0,6 per cent surge thanks to the
weaker dollar. This meant that precious metal landed the week
with a total fall of 1 per cent. This is the seventh time the last eight
weeks gold ends up with a minus result.

Bonds and Forex

The downside of a Federal Reserve rate hike

Two days ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, a rate
hike is heavily priced in. In spite of the fact that many may be in
favour of such an event, there are still some that believe it would
be most unpropitious. They argue that the labour market in the US
still have a long way to go with wages as well as participation rates
and that the inflation rate is too low to justify a rate rise. In
comparison to the diverging opinions regarding the outcome for the
US economy, most seem to be in agreement about the fact that a
rate hike will leave China in a more perilous situation. Despite the
increased amortization costs that China will suffer from the hike, a
potential rate hike in conjunction with a stronger dollar may
compound into another negative effect on the Chinese economy:
Spurring capital outflows from the Chinese markets. Last week one
could observe that this type of movement had already presented
itself rather clearly. Besides repositioning the Renminbi in favour of

getting exposure to the more attractive US dollar, an important

reason for withdrawing money seems to have been that nervous
investors doubt the potential returns in the Chinese markets. The
jitters are rooted in the overvalued Renminbi that probably is up for
depreciation and the reserve of foreign exchanges that have been
slashed to record low levels recently, making China less able to
control the Renminbi exchange rate. A rate hike would likely prove
troublesome for the Chinese economy, leaving the government
with even emptier pockets.

Small cap
Episurf
Historical low expectations provides big upside both short and long-
term. Episurf raised about 120MSEK in Q3 to finance its progression
from research and development into full scale commercialization of
the companys three ready products. By the end of Q3, 62
successful operations had been conducted using Episurfs leading
technology of anatomically shaped implants tailored for the
individual. Episurfs revolutionary technology and nonexisting fail
rate has a good chance at establishing itself on the market. Episurf
is planning on expanding to the European market, and within a two
year period to continue to the North American market which is
valued to 4,2 billion $. Their goal is that 100 new clinics will join the
companys own web based IT-system , iFidelity, in 2015. By the
end of Q1, 39 clinics had already joined. If these clinics on average
perform three operations a year this equals a revenue of 6-7,5
MSEK for Episurf. With increasing sales cost the burn rate has
increased by 10 MSEK per quarter but with a solvency of 95 % there
is room for continuing expansion. This was a summary of Analyst Groups
analysis, read the full analysis on Episurf at: http://analystgroup.se/episurf/



Capacent Holding
Capacent Holding is a recently listed management consulting
company. High dividend yield and incentive programs to keep
skilled employees provides a large potential upside with a limited
downside. Q4 has an estimated revenue of 150 MSEK and an
EBITDA of 15,6 MSEK for 2015. Capacent has a stated goal of
achieving an organic growth greater than 4,7 %
It aims to achieve its financial goal by organically building on its
current strong market position and explore further geographical
expansion. The company has historically acquired consulting firms
with different specialisations to broaden Capacents expertise and
provide consulting in different areas. The market risk and a current
high goodwill post in the balance sheet should however be taken
into consideration.
This was a summary of Analyst Groups analysis, read the full analysis on
Capacent Holding at: http://analystgroup.se/capacent/

Verisec
Verisec (VERI) is a company with focus on digital security. The
company has its own digital security solution, Freja, which
generates most of the companys revenue. Mobile identification is a
growing market and is expected to double its size to 2018.
Combined with a continually growth in the IT-security segment of
15.5 % on a year basis indicates that Verisec operates on a market
with strong underlying growth. Verisecs most recent deal is with
the Spanish bank BBVA that has implemented Freja in its systems.
The bank has approximately 40 million customers. The deal will
result in a great boost in Verisecs future revenue. The Freja system
is mostly sold by subscription to the banks and therefore generates
income on a yearly basis. The customer, which usually is banks,
does not change supplier of these services particularly often and

therefore becomes loyal customers. As an example has Verisec not

lost a single maintenance deal since 2002. The hard competition on
the Swedish market by the alternative Mobilt BankID has forced
Verisec to expand internationally and made 2014 a public float that
generated in 35 million SEK in new capital to finance the
international expansion. The success of the company will depend
on this expansion and has so far has been above expectations.
This was a summary of Analyst Groups analysis, read the full analysis on Verisec
at: http://analystgroup.se/verisec/

Christian Berner
Christian Berner (CBTT B) is a technology trading company that
market, sells and deliver components, systems and services with a
high level of technical content. The company provides quality
products, support and solutions for customers in both the private
and public sector. With an increased focus on value sales and
control of expenditures has the profitability improved four quarter
in a row. Combined with a improved turnover for the first nine
month and a strong wallet gives space for strategic acquisitions
with which Christian Berner intends to further strengthen its
position as a niche player in their field of business. With a strong
main owner in Christian Berner Invest AB that owns 61.4 % of the
capital and 75.9 % of the votes. They are represented by the third
and fourth generation in the Berner family that indicates a personal
interest in the companys success. The rest of the board has a broad
range of experience in the technical trade market as well as the CEO
Bo Sderqvist. Christian Berner is going to change stock floor and
will be traded at small cap in 2016. This opens up for institutional
investors that will make the stock more liquid. This was a summary of
Analyst Groups analysis, read the full analysis on Christian Berner at:
http://analystgroup.se/christian-berner/



MACRO EVENTS WEEK 51
Monday:
Japan: Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4, Industrial Production
YoY Final OCT and Tertiary Industry Index MoM OCT
Euro Area: Industrial Production YoY OCT, ECB President Draghi
Speech
India: WPI Inflation YoY NOV and Inflation Rate YoY NOV
Tuesday:
Sweden: Riksbank Rate Decision
Great Britain: Inflation Rate YoY NOV
Brazil: Business Confidence DEC
Euro Area: Employment Change YoY Q3
United States: Inflation Rate YoY NOV, Nahb Housing Market Index
Wednesday:
Euro Area: ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, Balance of Trade
OCT and Inflation Rate YoY Final NOV
Great Britain: Unemployment Rate OCT and Average Earnings incl.
Bonus OCT
United States: Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Economic
Projections
Thursday:
Japan: Balance of Trade NOV and Exports YoY NOV
Sweden: Unemployment Rate NOV
Norway: Interest Rate Decison
Euro Area: Construction Output YoY OCT, Labour Cost Index YoY Q3
and Wage Growth YoY Q3
Friday:
China: House Price Index YoY NOV
Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
United States: Fed Lacker Speech

SPOT PRICES and one week change

OMXS30
1 401,14
NASDAQ

4 933,47
S&P 500
2 012,37
DAX 30

10 340,06
NIKKEI

19 230,48
HANG SENG
21 464,05
Gold spot
1 072,10
Crude Oil (Brent)
39,91
USD/SEK

8,496
EUR/USD
1,099
Bitcoin

434.11

Writers:
Tomas Nyln
Emma Egnell
David Ingman
Olof Svanemur
Johan Svensson
Matilda Andersson
Carl Dalerstedt
Mark Thiongo
Technical analysts:
Johan Lvstrand
Emil Esbjrnsson

-5,67%
-4,06%
-3,79%
-3,83%
-1,40%
-3,90%
-1,19%
-9,84%
+1,08%
+4,01%
+11,4%



OMXS30

OMXS30 is for the moment trading in a long term down trend. The
index moves in the current situation in the upper part of the trend
channel although it has bounced back since it was testing the roof
earlier last week. Friday the stock closed at the same level as the
MA-50 line which can act as a distinct support/resistance level next
week. The past few days, we have seen two large red candle sticks
combined with increased volume which indicates a continued
decline which follows the trend. Also the MACD indicator pointing
in the same direction since it has broken through the signal line
from above, which triggers a sell signal. Stop loss would in the
current situation be recommended to around 1440 points. We are
technically negative to the OMXS30 in the short and long term.

Elous Vind B

Eolus Vind broke out if its downtrend by a breach of the roof of the
trend channel. This results in an indication towards a more
horizontal development of the stock and a slowdown in the rate of
decline. MACD recently crossed the signal line from below,
indicating a positive momentum. The stock recently tested
resistance of 24.5 SEK, which meant a short term downward
movement. The nearest support is at 21 SEK and a stop-loss is
tentatively set just below this level. We are in total technically
neutral to Eolus Wind in the medium term.



Avensia

Avensia has previously been trading in a long-term downtrend, but
broke out of it in the end of October. The stock has since then had a
strong upward movement, but is now on the decline. The stock is
currently showing no clear trend, which does not give clear
indications about the future. MACD has just broken the signal line
from above and are moving towards the zero line. This indicates a
slightly more negative view of the market and a negative
momentum in the stock. It recently tested the resistance at 6.5 SEK,
but is now approaching support at 5.0 SEK. We recommend a stop-
loss below the support level at 5.0 SEK. In the total, we technically
negative to Avensia in the medium term.

Oniva Online Group

Oniva Online Group has for a long time been traded at very low
volumes within a falling trend channel. The stock has tried to break
through the roof on several occasions, which it succeeded in one
month ago but fell fairly straight back into the trend channel. The
stock is now traded in the middle of the trend channel, while the
MACD is below the signal line, suggesting a bearish view of the
market. Furthermore, there is no support level for the stock since
its traded close to the all-time low and thus it becomes difficult
to identify a stop loss and caution is advised. The resistance level of
the stock is around 10 SEK. In summary, the technical view of Oniva
Online Group is negative in the short term and medium term.



BTS Group B

BTS Group has since the beginning of the year been traded in a
positive trend. The stock has since the peak of 82.5 SEK, broken
down and is now close to the floor of the trend channel, where the
stock previously found support with higher volume. MACD is below
the signal line indicating that a short-term rebound can be
expected. The future direction of the trend will be determined
whether the support level at 71 SEK will hold, where a stop loss is
tentatively set slightly below this level. The resistance level is to be
found around 76 SEK. The technical view of BTS Group is positive in
the short and medium term.

Precio Fishbone B

Precio Fishbone has for the last six months been moving in a slightly
positive trend, where the stock recently broke up through the trend
channel after a rectangle formation triggered a buy signal. This gave
a signal of further positive development with a target price of 16.5
SEK, which it also reached during high volume. The stock has now
bounced down towards the trend channel and is about to break
through. The stock can either find support at this level or it will
break down and settle back within the trend channel. MACD is still
above the signal line, but is close to break down, which in this case
will provide a "bearish" view of the market. The support level is
approximately at 14.5 SEK and a stop loss is tentatively set slightly
below this level. The resistance level is found around 17.2 SEK. The
technical view of Precio Fishbone is neutral in the short term and
positive in the medium term.