Vietnam in 2030 PDF

Vietnam in 2030: The Future
Demographic
December 2010
Population and Homes
Euromonitor International
Vietnam in 2030
Summary
Population Past, Present and Future
Population Shift
Ageing
Men and Women in Vietnam
Births and Deaths
Diversity
Population by Ethnicity
Cities
Vietnam in 2030
Summary
Population: 99.6 million
Median age: 36.7 years
Life expectancy: 78.2 years
Fastest-growing major
cities: 2010-2030
1. Hai Phong
2. Hanoi
3. Bien Hoa
Population Age Shift 2010-2030

2,000
2010
2030
000
1,500
1,000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Population by Ethnicity: 2030
75%
80%
Vietnamese
85%
Thai
90%
Tay
Khome
95%
Muong
100%
Other
3
Vietnam in 2030
Population Past, Present and Future

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance 1980-2030
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)
In 2030, the population of Vietnam will
reach 99.6 million, an increase of 14.5%

from 2010. This growth will be mainly
driven by huge increases in the population
aged 54+ years which will expand by
118% or 13.8 million inhabitants.
Nevertheless, Vietnam remains an
overwhelmingly young population as
indicated by the hot spots in the chart on
the left. In 2030 Vietnam will have 23.0
million 30-44 year olds.
All age groups of 26 years and under will
decline in size between 2010 and
2030, with the sharpest falls being seen in
those aged 14-22 years.
These trends are being driven by a baby
boom in the 1970s and 1980s which
followed reunification of the north and
south in 1975. Since then birth and fertility
rates have dropped rapidly and driven the
ageing process.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Reading the chart: This heat chart depicts changes in the age
structure of the population over time. Each dot represents the number of
people in a specific (single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a
dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular
year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of red
therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms.
4
Vietnam in 2030
Population Shift
The rate of growth of the population is decelerating decade by decade. In the 2020s the population is expected to
increase by 6.0% compared to an increase of 24.3% in the 1980s when the population was expanding by more than
1 million per year on average.
The population should surpass the 90 million mark in 2015 and the 100 million mark in the very early 2030s. By this
time the population will have doubled since 1977.
All age groups of 26 years and under will decline in size between 2010 and 2030. This age group will see a decline
in numbers of 5.9 million. The sharpest falls will be felt by those aged 14-22 years there will be 3.4 million fewer
inhabitants of this age range in 2030.
Population density is nearly double the average for the Asia Pacific region. Much of the population is concentrated in
the Red River Delta (which includes Hanoi) and the Mekong Delta (Ho Chi Minh City).
2,000
2010
1,800
2030
120,000
1,600
1,400
000
1,200
1,000
Those aged 0-26 will

fall by 5.9 million in
2010-2030
800
600
400
200
Total population - 000
100,000
Total population
Population density
80,000
10
20
30
300
250
200
60,000
150
40,000
20,000
-
350
100
50
0
Population density-persons per sq km
Total Population and Population Density

1980s-2020s
Population by Age 2010 and 2030
40
50
60
70
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
5
Vietnam in 2030
Ageing
The population of Vietnam is ageing from a low base. In 2010 more than half (52.4%) of the population was aged
under 30. By 2030, this proportion will drop to 40.0%. This trend is caused by a decline in birth rates which is causing
a decrease in the number of all those aged 26 and under.
The median age of the population is expected to be 36.7 years in 2030, compared to 28.4 in 2010.
The population aged 65+ is growing rapidly. Between 2010 and 2030 it is expected to expand by 125%, compared to
14.5% for the overall population. In 2010 there are four 0-14 year olds for every person aged 65+, by 2030 there will
be less than two. At current rates of growth, the 65+ age group will overtake the 0-14s at some point in the 2040s.
The oldest old (those aged 80+) are expected to increase at a slower pace 63.8% during this period. In 2030, life
expectancy at birth will reach 78.2, an increase of 3.2 years since 2010.
Population Aged 0-14 and 65+

1980-2030
30,000
Population aged 65+
Growth Indices 1980-2030

600
Population aged 0-14

500
25,000
10,000
1980 = 100
000
20,000
15,000
Total
Population aged 65+
Population aged 80+
Those aged 65+ will

grow by a massive 388%
in 1980-2030.
400
300
200
5,000
0
1980
100
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030

6
Vietnam in 2030
Men and Women in Vietnam

Age Pyramid 2010 and 2030
As the birth rate has fallen the population
pyramid has become more rectangular in

shape and will continue to do so.
The average age of the female population will
increase from 29.7 years in 2010, to 37.6 years
in 2030. The equivalent figures for men are
27.1 and 35.9 years. The median age is first
expected to surpass 30 in 2011 for women and
2018 for men.
Both men and women aged 15-24 represent
the largest segments in 2010, while in 2030
those aged 35-44 will become the largest age
segment. This is a natural result of the ageing
process.
Females are expected to outnumber males in
each age group over 44 in 2030, below which
the reverse is true. Significant differences only
emerge for those aged 80+. There are 75.7%
more women than men in this age group.
However this age segment remains small, so
this equates to only 504,760 more women than
men and is due to higher female life
expectancy.
Females born in 2010 can expect to outlive
men by 3.9 years. In 2030 this is expected to
increase slightly to 4.2 years. This is due to
healthier lifestyles amongst women.
7
Vietnam in 2030
Births and Deaths

Fertility and birth rates have fallen dramatically. In 1977 the fertility rate was 5.95 children per female, by 2010 it had
fallen to 2.01 and by 2030 it is expected to be 1.85. It first fell below replacement rate in 2009.
The average age at childbirth is 28.4 years in 2010 and this will remain almost static during the forecast
period, increasing only to 28.5 years in 2030. This is relatively high for a country of Vietnams level of economic
development and is due to the high level of female employment which rivals that of males.
The birth rate is in keeping with the regional average. The number of births peaked in 1988 at 2.1 million. In 2030
there are expected to be just 1.3 million. This is not due to a decline in women of childbearing age females aged
15-49 will actually increase by 55% during this period. Rather it is caused by economic growth, urbanisation and
social change all combining to encourage women to have smaller families.
Both the number of deaths and the death rate are expected to increase between 2010 and 2030. This is a result of
the increasing number of older Vietnamese. The main causes of death in 2010 are diseases of the circulatory
system, followed by cancer. Despite the ageing population the death rate is expected to remain below the high levels
seen before 1985 which were due to the lack of publicly funded healthcare.
Birth Rates 1980s-2020s
Mean Age at Childbirth 1980s-2020s
35.0
34.3
30.0
25.6
25.0
18.5
20.0
16.2
15.0
14.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Years
Per 000 inhabitants
40.0
30.0
29.0
28.0
27.0
26.0
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
20.0
29.0
1980s
28.0
28.0
1990s
2000s
28.4
28.5
2010s
2020s

8
Vietnam in 2030
Diversity
Vietnam is overwhelmingly a country of emigration. As one of its anti-poverty tactics the government organises
overseas employment.
According to World Bank figures, in 2010 2.2 million Vietnamese lived outside of the country. The most popular
destination countries are: the USA, Australia, Canada, Cambodia, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, the UK
and Thailand.
Brain drain is a huge problem with 27.1% of the population with a higher education emigrating.
For these reasons remittances are an important contributor to the economy. Migrants sent back US$6.6 billion in
2009 which is the equivalent of US$77 per capita. Money sent from urban to rural areas from internal migrants is
also an important source of income.
Net migration has been falling since 2006 as a result of the strong levels of economic growth being seen in Vietnam.
This growth has created more employment opportunities for young Vietnamese.
Net Migration 1980-2030
In 2010 the World Bank estimated that
there were only 69,300 immigrants in

Vietnam. Almost all were economic
migrants and just over one third of
immigrants were women.
Due to these low numbers immigration
has very little impact on general
demographic trends such as ageing and
falling birth rates.
0
-50
000
-100
-150
-200
Net migration
-250
-300
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030

9
Vietnam in 2030
Vietnam is an ethnically diverse country with 54 officially recognised ethnic groups.
The Vietnamese are the largest group accounting for 85.7% of the population in 2010. In 2030 this will remain largely
unchanged at 85.3%. No other group accounts for more than 2% of the total population.
The Tay are the second largest group with 1.6 million inhabitants in 2010. Most Tay are located in the north of the
country and are predominantly agricultural.
In 2020 the Tay will be overtaken by Thais who will become the second largest group with 1.7 million
inhabitants, increasing further to 1.8 million in 2030.
Population by Ethnicity 2010/2030

100%
Other
90%
% of total population
80%
Muong
70%
60%
Khome
50%
Tay
40%
30%
Vietnamese is also the countrys main
language with 86.0% of the population

speaking Vietnamese in 2010. In 2030
this will remain largely unchanged at
85.6%.
French is a commonly spoken second
language; particularly amongst older
Vietnamese, largely as a result of
Vietnams colonial past. English is
gaining in popularity however, particularly
amongst the young as the language of
business.
Thai
20%
10%
Vietnamese
0%
2010
2030

10
Vietnam in 2030
Cities
Vietnams 10 Biggest Cities
2010/2020/2030
Vietnam remains a predominantly rural country, with only
28.8% of inhabitants living in urban areas in 2010. In

2030, the majority of Vietnamese will remain rural
dwellers but the proportion of the urban population will
have risen to 41.8%.
Urbanisation has been proceeding at a rapid, if
decelerating, pace since its peak in the 1990s. It has
been driven by economic development with rural-to-urban
migrants searching for employment. It is accompanied by
social change and the demise of the extended family.
Ho Chi Minh City is Vietnams largest city and most
important business centre with a population of 6.2 million
in 2010, or 1-in-4 of the urban population. In 2030, the
city will be home to 11.3 million inhabitants.
Hanoi, the capital, is the second largest city with a
population of 2.8 million in 2010, which is expected to
expand to 6.7 million in 2030.
Hai Phong in the north is set to be Vietnams fastest
growing city, with a population of 900,280 in
2010, expanding to 2.3 million in 2030. This growth of
157% is more than twice the pace of the expansion of the
urban population in general. Hai Phong is an important
port and has benefited from the setting up of industrial
and export processing zones.
No cities are declining in size although Hue is expected to
see very little growth between 2010 and 2030.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

11
Data
Population by 5-Year Age Group
Male Population by 5-Year Age Group
Female Population by 5-Year Age Group
Vital Statistics
Population by City
12
Data
Population by 5-Year Age Group

000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
7,755
7,489
7,056
6,936
6,827
6,705
6,368
5-9
9,242
7,715
7,161
6,937
6,854
6,758
6,636
10-14
9,252
9,083
7,649
7,076
6,851
6,777
6,684
15-19
8,277
8,847
8,792
7,534
6,977
6,761
6,700
20-24
7,402
7,644
8,116
8,622
7,419
6,871
6,657
25-29
6,651
6,938
6,855
7,919
8,489
7,300
6,797
30-34
6,214
6,503
6,746
6,693
7,789
8,355
7,135
35-39
5,635
6,210
6,797
6,628
6,570
7,662
8,285
40-44
4,565
5,634
6,498
6,683
6,496
6,453
7,532
45-49
3,320
4,558
5,830
6,367
6,536
6,367
6,307
50-54
2,218
3,308
4,645
5,673
6,192
6,372
6,239
55-59
1,905
2,213
3,268
4,472
5,469
5,986
6,175
60-64
1,729
1,886
2,103
3,095
4,252
5,215
5,721
65-69
1,657
1,662
1,735
1,932
2,863
3,950
4,872
70-74
1,237
1,501
1,449
1,519
1,706
2,546
3,531
75-79
853
1,032
1,197
1,164
1,239
1,406
2,129
80+
678
920
1,122
1,369
1,483
1,631
1,838
78,592
83,143
87,020
90,618
94,011
97,114
99,607
23.2
25.6
28.4
30.2
32.2
34.4
36.7
TOTAL
Median Age

13
Data
Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
3,960
3,825
3,631
3,543
3,490
3,429
3,257
5-9
4,715
3,956
3,679
3,564
3,501
3,452
3,392
10-14
4,716
4,673
3,967
3,635
3,518
3,461
3,414
15-19
4,164
4,512
4,594
3,908
3,580
3,469
3,417
20-24
3,712
3,803
4,170
4,501
3,840
3,519
3,412
25-29
3,303
3,437
3,403
4,063
4,423
3,772
3,475
30-34
3,047
3,218
3,333
3,317
3,989
4,347
3,680
35-39
2,765
3,062
3,354
3,268
3,249
3,918
4,306
40-44
2,185
2,779
3,188
3,292
3,198
3,187
3,848
45-49
1,556
2,186
2,848
3,116
3,213
3,129
3,105
50-54
991
1,545
2,177
2,759
3,020
3,122
3,058
55-59
817
987
1,489
2,081
2,646
2,904
3,011
60-64
759
808
927
1,396
1,962
2,503
2,752
65-69
730
723
732
840
1,274
1,798
2,313
70-74
514
644
618
628
727
1,110
1,572
75-79
328
409
501
483
497
581
901
80+
236
324
407
516
555
590
667
38,497
40,891
43,018
44,909
46,680
48,291
49,579
22.2
24.6
27.1
29.0
31.2
33.5
35.9
TOTAL
Median Age

14
Data
Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
3,795
3,665
3,425
3,393
3,337
3,276
3,112
5-9
4,527
3,759
3,483
3,373
3,353
3,306
3,245
10-14
4,536
4,410
3,682
3,441
3,333
3,316
3,270
15-19
4,113
4,335
4,198
3,627
3,398
3,292
3,283
20-24
3,691
3,841
3,946
4,120
3,579
3,351
3,245
25-29
3,348
3,501
3,452
3,856
4,066
3,528
3,322
30-34
3,168
3,285
3,413
3,377
3,800
4,008
3,454
35-39
2,870
3,148
3,443
3,360
3,321
3,744
3,979
40-44
2,380
2,854
3,310
3,392
3,298
3,267
3,685
45-49
1,764
2,372
2,982
3,251
3,324
3,239
3,202
50-54
1,227
1,763
2,468
2,914
3,172
3,250
3,181
55-59
1,089
1,227
1,780
2,391
2,823
3,081
3,164
60-64
970
1,078
1,176
1,698
2,290
2,712
2,969
65-69
927
940
1,003
1,092
1,589
2,151
2,559
70-74
724
857
831
890
979
1,436
1,958
75-79
525
623
696
681
742
825
1,228
80+
442
595
715
854
927
1,040
1,172
40,095
42,253
44,002
45,709
47,331
48,823
50,028
24.1
26.6
29.7
31.5
33.3
35.4
37.6
TOTAL
Median Age

15
Data
Vital Statistics
Birth rates
Live births (000)
Fertility rates
Age at childbirth
Net migration (000)
Death rates
Deaths (000)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
19.9
18.3
17.0
16.0
15.3
14.4
13.4
1,562.3
1,524.9
1,476.9
1,453.3
1,442.2
1,401.1
1,336.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
27.0
28.2
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.5
28.5
-96.7
-217.9
-144.9
-60.4
-29.7
-19.3
- 20.2
5.5
5.8
6.8
7.7
8.0
8.4
8.9
429.0
479.7
591.6
694.1
755.4
810.9
891.1

Note: Birth and death rates refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female.
Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years.
16
Data
000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
67,700
71,407
74,568
77,516
80,320
82,898
84,974
Thai
1,378
1,489
1,574
1,651
1,722
1,785
1,836
Tay
1,525
1,603
1,641
1,678
1,718
1,758
1,791
Khome
1,091
1,188
1,286
1,374
1,452
1,518
1,571
Muong
1,175
1,243
1,283
1,319
1,357
1,393
1,422
Other
5,723
6,212
6,667
7,079
7,443
7,761
8,013
Vietnamese
17
Data
Population by City
000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Ho Chi Minh City
4,368
5,210
6,171
7,264
8,500
9,879
11,341
Hanoi
1,596
2,095
2,795
3,612
4,542
5,586
6,712
Hai Phong
500
651
900
1,195
1,530
1,907
2,315
Da Nang
564
673
797
939
1,099
1,278
1,467
Bien Hoa
453
545
648
766
901
1,054
1,218
Vung Tau
205
245
290
340
398
461
529
Qui Nhon
224
252
281
314
352
393
435
Nha Trang
264
278
295
316
341
371
402
Can Tho
247
257
270
285
305
328
354
Hue
Total urban
population
233
226
221
218
218
220
223
19,081
21,956
25,088
28,612
32,581
36,985
41,603
18
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Vietnam in 2030: The Future

Population and Homes

Population and Homes

Population Age Shift 2010-2030

Population by Ethnicity: 2030

Population and Homes

Population Past, Present and Future

In 2030, the population of Vietnam will

reach 99.6 million, an increase of 14.5%

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Those aged 0-26 will

Total population - 000

Population density-persons per sq km

Total Population and Population Density

Population by Age 2010 and 2030

Population and Homes

Population Aged 0-14 and 65+

Population aged 65+

Growth Indices 1980-2030

Population aged 0-14

Those aged 65+ will

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Men and Women in Vietnam

As the birth rate has fallen the population

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

pyramid has become more rectangular in

Population and Homes

Births and Deaths

Birth Rates 1980s-2020s

Mean Age at Childbirth 1980s-2020s

Per 000 inhabitants

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Net Migration 1980-2030

In 2010 the World Bank estimated that

there were only 69,300 immigrants in

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Population by Ethnicity 2010/2030

Vietnamese is also the countrys main

language with 86.0% of the population

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Vietnam remains a predominantly rural country, with only

28.8% of inhabitants living in urban areas in 2010. In

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

Population and Homes

Population and Homes

Population by 5-Year Age Group

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Population and Homes

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics