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ECON 41 - STATISTICS FOR ECONOMISTS

(Winter, 2016)
UCLA Department of Economics
Zhipeng Liao
Contact: Instructors contacts are (310) 794-5427 and zhipeng.liao@econ.ucla.edu.
E-Mails: Please make sure that your full name with proper capitalization and Economics 41 appear in the
Sender and in the Subject lines; I routinely delete suspicious e-mails without opening them. It is also
advised to send emails from your ucla.edu account since emails from other accounts might be automatically
classified as spam.
Office Hour: Thursday 3:15 pm 4:45pm. The last office hour is on March 10, 2016. My office is at Bunche
8379.

Description: This course is an introduction to the theory and practice of statistics with an emphasis on its
use in economics. It will introduce basic statistical concepts such as random variables, probability
distributions, estimation, confidence intervals and hypothesis testing.
Textbook: The textbook for the course is A Brief Course in Mathematical Statistics by Elliot A. Tanis and
Robert V. Hogg (Prentice Hall). We do not use the entire book.

Course Outline: Maple exercises need not be read or understood.

Probability
Basic Concepts
Methods of Enumeration Only three topics including Sampling with Replacement,
Combination, Binomial Coefficients
Conditional Probability
Independent Events
[Skip Section 1.5 Bayess Theorem]
Discrete Distributions
Discrete Probability Distributions Topics include Mean, Variance, Sample Mean, and
Sample Variance
Expectations. [Unbiased estimation and Chebyshevs inequality deferred until after
continuous random variables.]
Special Discrete Distributions. Discuss only the definition of Poisson. [Skip relationship
between binomial and Poisson. Skip every other distribution in the section.]
Linear Functions of Independent Random Variables. [Law of large numbers discussed
later.]
Covariance [Skip the rest of Section 2.6 Multivariate Discrete Distributions]
Continuous Random Variables
[Skip Section 3.1]
Continuous Probability Distributions. [No percentile]
The Normal Distribution [Skip Example 3.4-7]
(Optional) Estimation in the Continuous Case
Central Limit Theorem. [Skip every example except Example 3.6-1]
Approximations for Discrete Distributions. [Skip Example 3.7-5]
Applications of Statistical Inference
Chebyshevs Inequality, Law of Large Numbers and Estimation
Section 3.3. Brief Introduction to chi-square, t- and F-distributions. No other distributions
will be discussed.
Summary of Necessary Theoretical Results.
Section 4.2. Just discuss confidence intervals using T. Two-sample problems on pp 165168 optional.

Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses


[Skip the rest of this chapter, i.e., 4.4-4.11]
[Skip Chapter 5]
[Skip Chapter 6]

Homework: Homework problems are listed in the lecture note, which will be available at the course web
site (https://moodle2.sscnet.ucla.edu/course/view/16W-ECON41-3). You are not required to turn in your
homework questions. (Around 40% of midterm and final questions will be based on the homework problems.
Numbers will be changed, so you should really understand how to solve the problems.) Your TA will go over
the homework problems in the TA session. To encourage you to attend the TA sessions, we will not post
the homework hints online.
Exams: There will be an in-class mid-term exam on February 11, 2016, and a final exam. The date of the
final exam is decided by the university, and it is your responsibility to find the final exam schedule and location.
(Last time I checked the registrars web page, it is administered on Thursday, March 17, 2016, 3:00pm6:00pm.) Here are some important policies about the exams.
1. The midterm will cover everything discussed during January 4 - February 5 time window. The final
exam will cover everything discussed this quarter, including the material covered in the midterm exam.
2. In exams, Tables in the appendix of the textbook, when needed, will be provided.
3. The exams will be of the multiple choice format, and you are required to use the Scantron provided by
the economics department. You cannot assess and revise the Scantron after you turn it in, even if there
are unfinished questions.
4. If you erase an answer on your Scantron, you have to write the letter answer over to the right-hand side
of the Scantron on the appropriate line.
5. In both exams, you are required to bring a calculator. The only acceptable calculator is Canon LS100TS. It can be bought from ASUCLA book stores.
6. No cheat sheet is allowed in both exams.
7. Cell phones, PDAs or any other electronics are not allowed during the exams.
8. In both exams, you should write down your name and UID in both the Scantron and the exam paper.
The exam paper should be turned in together with the Scantron for the full consideration of your grade.

Evaluation: Your final letter grade will be based on the weighted average of the midterm exam and the
final exam. No other factor will be considered when your letter grades are determined. The weights given
to the midterm and final examinations will be 40%, and 60%, respectively. The grade will be based on a
curve. Roughly speaking, I will assign 25% students some As, 35% students some Bs, and 25%
students some Cs. In order to eliminate any ambiguity arising from ties, I will use the precise mathematical
algorithm described below:

Your midterm score will be divided by the maximum possible midterm score, and then multiplied
by 100. Call it M. Likewise, your final score will be divided by the maximum possible final score,
and then multiplied by 100. Call it F. Your weighted average W is calculated by the formula W =
M0.4 + F0.6.
If W40, you will get F regardless of your class rank.
If W>40, then your grade will be determined by the algorithm below.
Your W will be compared with every other W. Define your r to denote the number of
students in class whose Ws are strictly higher than your own W. (Let W1,Wn denote the
weighted averages of all the students in class, where n denotes the number of enrolled
students. Let W denote your weighted average. Let Zi=1 if Wi > W, and let Zi=0

otherwise. Your r is defined to be


.) Define your rank R by the formula R = r+1.
If R10, you will get A+. If 11R20, you will get A. If 21R35, you will get A-.
If 36R50, you will get B+. If 51R65, you will get B. If 66R80, you will get B-.
If 81R92, you will get C+. If 93R103, you will get C. If 104R112, you will get C-.
If 113R122, you will get D+. If 123R125, you will get D.
Just to be clear, the symbols < and have completely different mathematical meanings.

Other Rules: Consult the Common Syllabus, which can be found at:
http://www.econ.ucla.edu/undergraduate/?p=commonsyllabus.
Rules governing missed exams, e.g., can be found there.

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