Power Supply Op-ons for 

Energy Security 

Allan
C.
Nerves,
Ph.D.

Electrical
&
Electronics
Engineering
Ins9tute

University
of
the
Philippines,
Diliman


Beyond

2010:
Leadership
for
the
Next
genera9on

A
U.P.
Academic’s
Congress



Malcolm
Hall,
University
of
the
Philippines,
Diliman

February
16,
2010

 Objec9ves

•  Latest
data
on
current
and
prospec9ve
use
of
electricity.

•  Comparison
of
energy
genera9on
op9ons

•  Overview
of
the
issues
related
to
each
technology
and
an

assessment
of
the
poten9al
of
each
technology
to
be
a

contributor
to
the
long‐term
genera9on
outlook
in
the

Philippines.

2006
Power
Grid

Map


3

2006
Power
Grid
Map

2006
Power
Grid

Map

2006
Power
Grid

Map

 Electricity
Demand


Peak
Demand
(MW)

DOE
Power
Sta9s9cs

 Electricity
Demand


Electricity
Consump9on
by
Sector
(GWh)

DOE
Power
Sta9s9cs

 Resources

•  The
poten9al
hydrocarbon
energy
resources
in
the
Philippines
are
very

limited,
and
while
there
were
some
new
coal
and
natural
gas
discoveries

between
2000
and
2005,
it
is
unlikely
their
produc9on
will
match

projected
demand
growth.


•  U9lizing
alterna9ve
energy
sources,
such
as
geothermal,
biomass
and

hydro,
will
be
cri9cal
to
the
economy
mee9ng
its
energy
supply–demand

balance
in
the
future,
and
to
avoid
increasing
its
dependency
on
imported

fuels
further
than
already
projected.

•  A
remarkable
feature
of
the
Philippines
is
the
very
high
rate
of
u9liza9on

of
its
geothermal
resource
–
in
volume
the
world’s
second
largest
a^er

the
United
States.
To
develop
its
geothermal
energy
poten9al
further
so
it

can
reach
the
projected
total
installed
capacity
of
3500
MW
by
2030,
the

economy
will
need
to
implement
strategies
to
encourage
explora9on
and

increase
u9liza9on,
and
also
establish
a
policy
framework
that
supports

investment.

 Resources

Energy
Reserves:

•  Oil:
24
million
cubic
meters

•  Gas:
107
billion
cubic
meters

•  Coal:
399
million
tonnes

•  Geothermal:
4537
MW
poten9al
(1931
MW

exis9ng
plants)

•  Solar,
wind,
biomass,
ocean:
250,000
MW

poten9al

 Genera9on


Genera9on
Mix

DOE
Power
Sta9s9cs

 Genera9on


Compara9ve
Genera9on
by
Resource
(GWh)

DOE,

14th
EPIRA
Implementa9on
Status
Report,
April
2009.

 Genera9on


2008
Installed
&
Dependable
Capacity

DOE,

14th
EPIRA
Implementa9on
Status
Report,
April
2009.

 Genera9on

•  Commiced
Power
Projects:
1354
MW
(600

MW
–
Luzon,
653.5
MW
–
Visayas,
100.5
MW

–
Mindanao)
(2010‐2014
comple9on)

•  Indica9ve
Power
Projects:
4135
MW

(2010‐2015
comple9on)



DOE,

14th
EPIRA
Implementa9on
Status
Report,
April
2009.

 Genera9on


Electricity
Genera9on
Outlook
(TWh)

UN
ESCAP,
Energy
Security
and
Sustainable
Development
in
Asia
and
the
Pacific,
2008.

 Genera9on


Philippine
Electricity

Genera9on
Mix

APERC
,
APEC
Energy
Supply
&
Demand
Outlook,
4th
Ed.,
Economy
Review,
2009.

 Transmission
Network


Substa9on
Capacity
(MVA)

TRANSCO
Annual
Reports
2002‐2008

 Transmission
Network


Transmission
Line
Length
(ckt‐km)

TRANSCO
Annual
Reports
2002‐2008

 Transmission
Network


System
Loss
(%
of
Net
Genera9on)

TRANSCO
Annual
Reports
2002‐2008

 Transmission
Network

•  Useful
new
transmission
lines
o^en
face
difficult
regulatory
obstacles,
as

well
as
complex
laws
and
rules.

BENEFITS
OF
POWER
GRID
EXPANSION

•  Power
grid
enhancements
can
make
electric
supply
more
reliable
by

improving
the
ability
of
economies
to
cope
with
the
outage
of
specific

genera9ng
units
or
types
of
genera9ng
units,
as
well
as
by
limi9ng
the

scope
of
power
outages.

•  Enhanced
power
grids
can
lower
electricity
costs
by
reducing
needs
for

electric
genera9ng
capacity
and
allowing
cheaper
fuel
to
be
subs9tuted

for
more
expensive
fuel.
Grids
lower
needs
for
genera9ng
capacity
by

allowing
peak
demand
in
one
area
to
be
served
in
part
by
spare
capacity

in
a
neighbouring
area
where
demand
is
not
at
its
peak.
Grids
lower
fuel

costs
by
allowing
genera9on
from
nuclear,
hydro
and
coal‐fired
power

plants
to
displace
genera9on
from
gas‐fired
plants.

 Transmission
Network

•  Extension
of
power
grids
can
benefit
the
environment
by
allowing
forms
of

power
genera9on
with
lower
atmospheric
emissions
to
replace
types
of

genera9on
with
higher
emissions.
For
example,
nuclear
and
hydropower

have
much
lower
emissions
than
gas‐fired
power,
which
in
turn
has
much

lower
emissions
than
conven9onal
coal‐fired
power.

 Transmission
Network


•  Obstacles
relates
to
the
complexity
of
zoning
and
environmental

regula9ons,
which
may
make
it
difficult
to
obtain
approval
for
new
electric

power
lines
in
all
the
jurisdic9ons
through
which
they
run.

•  Different
rules
and
regula9ons
which
are
o^en
inconsistent
with
each

other
and
do
not
always
promote
investment.

Several
op9ons
are
available
to
streamline
the
si9ng
of
transmission
facili9es:

•  An
open
planning
process,
which
solicits
the
views
of
all
interested
par9es

on
how
best
to
address
a
transmission
need,
reduces
opposi9on
in
two

ways.
It
allows
all
par9es
to
be
sa9sfied
that
their
views
have
been

considered.
It
also
allows
those
proposing
new
lines
to
suit
their
proposals

to
a
broader
spectrum
of
interests.

 Transmission
Network

•  Considera9on
of
a
broad
range
of
op9ons,
which
focuses
on
how
best
to

meet
power
needs
rather
than
on
gejng
a
par9cular
project
built,
can

engage
the
public
to
help
the
transmission
company
find
a
solu9on
that

meets
everyone’s
requirements.
It
also
allows
the
applicant
to
show
that
a

project
is
the
best
way
to
meet
the
need.

•  Regional
planning
bodies
can
create
an
efficient
review
process
for

proposed
new
transmission
lines.
All
en99es
that
have
legal
jurisdic9on

over
si9ng
can
work
with
the
same
documents
and
establish
common

9melines
for
reviews,
elimina9ng
the
need
for
duplicate
applica9ons
and

review
mee9ngs
across
jurisdic9ons.

 Environment


Philippine
CO2
Emissions
by
Sector


APERC
,
APEC
Energy
Supply
&
Demand
Outlook,
4th
Ed.,
Economy
Review,
2009.

Environmental impacts of electricity generation technology
Canadian Electricity Association, Power Generation in Canada, 2006
 Life‐cycle
air
emissions
of
electricity
genera9ons

Interna9onal
Energy
Agency,
Benign
Energy?
The
Environmental
Implica9ons
of
Renewables,
1998

 Performance
summary
for
different
fossil
fuel‐fired
plants

ADB,
Improving
Energy
Security
&
Reducing
Carbon
Intensity
in
Asia
and
the
Pacific,
2009

 Environment


Current
and
future
carbon
footprints

Parliamentary
Office
of
S&T,
Carbon
Footprint

of
Electricity
Genera9on,
2006.
CCS
=
carbon
capture
&
storage

 Environment


Range
of
carbon
footprints
for
European
low
carbon
technologies

Parliamentary
Office
of
S&T,
Carbon
Footprint

of
Electricity
Genera9on,
2006

 Genera9on
Cost


Electricity
genera9on
cost,
without
emissions
trading

R.
Tarjanne
&
A.
Kivisto,
Comparison
of
Electricity
Genera9on
Cost,
Lappeenranta
Univ.
Of
Tech.,
2008.


 Genera9on
Cost


Electricity
genera9on
cost,
with
emissions
trading

R.
Tarjanne
&
A.
Kivisto,
Comparison
of
Electricity
Genera9on
Cost,
Lappeenranta
Univ.
Of
Tech.,
2008.


 Wholesale
electricity
genera9on
cost

BC
Hydro,
Integrated
Electricity
Plan,
2004.

 Long‐run
marginal
cost
of
genera9on
technologies,
A$/MWh,
2008

McLennan,
Magasnik
&
Associates,
Compara9ve
Cost
of
Electricity
Genera9on
Technologies,
2009.


Ability of
technologies
to deliver
base and peak
load electricity

Canadian Electricity
Association, Power
Generation in Canada,
2006
Seasonal availability of power from various technologies
Canadian Electricity Association, Power Generation in Canada, 2006
 Poten9al
measures
to
address
energy
security

ADB,
Improving
Energy
Security
&
Reducing
Carbon
Intensity
in
Asia
and
the
Pacific,
2009

 Urgency
of
investment
requirements

ADB,
Improving
Energy
Security
&
Reducing
Carbon
Intensity
in
Asia
and
the
Pacific,
2009

 Likelihood
of
fuel
choices
for
electricity
genera9on
in
the
future

ADB,
Improving
Energy
Security
&
Reducing
Carbon
Intensity
in
Asia
and
the
Pacific,
2009

 The
Path
Forward

•  Mee9ng
the
an9cipated
significant
increase
in
genera9on
requirements

over
the
next
20
years
entails
serious
financial,
environmental
and
social

implica9ons.

•  Support
con9nued
fuel
diversity
and
the
pursuit
of
opportuni9es
that

ensure
affordable
electricity,
while
mee9ng
increasingly
demanding

objec9ves
with
respect
to
security,
power
quality,
reliability
and
the

environment.

•  The
use
of
each
resource
to
produce
electricity
results
in
different
life
‐cycle
environmental
impacts,
costs
and
opera9ng
characteris9cs.
Each
of

these
factors
needs
to
be
carefully
considered
and
balanced
in
developing

future
electricity
projects
in
the
Philippines.

•  Technological
changes
and
development
prac9ces
will
have
a
significant

impact
on
the
con9nued
use
of
conven9onal
sources
and
the
feasibility
of

using
emerging
technologies.

 The
Path
Forward

•  Need
to
draw
upon
a
combina9on
of
electricity
genera9on
technologies,

as
well
as
demand‐side
management,
to
ensure
a
sustainable
energy

future.

•  Only
with
a
good
grasp
of
the
technologies
and
their
range
of
implica9ons

can
stakeholders
work
effec9vely
together
to
meet
these
significant

supply
challenges,
and
create
the
right
condi9ons
to
foster
a
sustainable

electricity
future.

THANK YOU.