Statistika Rekayasa

Introduction to Probability

Course outline
Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning
Probabilities
Events and Their Probability
Some Basic Relationships of Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes Theorem

Uncertainties
Manager often base their decisions on an
analysis of uncertainties such as the following:
What are the chances that sales will decrease if we
increase prices?
o What is the likelihood a new assembly method will
increase productivity?
o How likely is it that the project will be finished on
time?
o What is the chance that a new investment will be
profitable?

Probability
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an
event will occur.
Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1.

Example:
a near 0 probability of rain tomorrow almost no chance of
rain
o 0.9 probability of rain tomorrow
very likely to rain
o 0.5 probability of rain tomorrow
as likely to occur as not
o

Some concepts
Experiment as a process that generates well-defined
outcomes.
The sample space for an experiment is the set of all
experimental outcomes. The sample space is
denoted by S
A sample point is an element of the sample space,
any one particular experimental outcome.

A counting rule for multiple-step

experiments

Example: Toss two coins

n1=2, n2=2, we have (2)(2)=4 distinct outcomes
S={(HH),(H,T),(T,H),(TT)}
How about tossing six coins?
Number of outcomes: (2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)=64
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Tree diagram
A tree diagram is a helpful graphical
representation of a multiple-step experiment.

Tree diagram for tossing two coins

Tree diagram - example

Experimental outcomes (sample points) for the
KP&L project.

Tree diagram for KP&L project

Counting rule for combinations

The number of combinations when n objects are
selected from a set of N objects at random

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Combinations - examples
In a group of five parts, how many combinations
of two parts can be selected?

Florida lottery system uses the random selection

of six integers from a group of 53 to determine
the weekly winner.

An individual who buys a lottery ticket has 1

chance in 22,957,480 of winning
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Counting rule for permutation

The number of permutation of N taken n, where the
order of selection is important.

An experiment results in permutations more than

combinations for the same number of objects. Why?

every selection of n objects can be ordered in

n! different ways.
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Example - permutation
consider again the quality control process in
which an inspector selects two of five parts to
inspect for defects. How many permutations may
be selected?

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Combination vs Permutation

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Basic requirements for assigning

probabilities

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Three approaches for assigning

probability

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Example Classical method for tossing a

die

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Example Relative frequency method

for 40 KP&L projects

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Example Relative frequency method

for 40 KP&L projects

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Events and their probability

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Example coin toss

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Example 40 KP&L project

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Example 40 KP&L project

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Example 40 KP&L project

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References
Statistics for Business and Economics, Anderson,
Sweeney, and Williams, West Publishing
Company.
Statistics for Business and Economics., South
Western/Thompson Learning

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