NATIONAL

[JANUARY 2016; PART B]

METHODOLOGY
Smarton
IVR
on January
7th,
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,937 Canadians by Smart IVR
January
15th, 2016.
A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of
20. Party margins of error: Conservative: +/-2.32%; NDP: +/-3.87%; Greens: +/-6.21%;
19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.

B2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

70% DONT LIKE TRUMP, 67% SAY CRUZ CAN RUN

January 22, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds 70% of Canadians have an
unfavourable view of Donald Trump - but he commands the highest level of support among Republican
candidates. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.49%, 19 times out of 20.
As a follow up to our American politics survey last year, we asked Canadian their views on Presidential
primary candidates for both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, said Quito Maggi, President
of Mainstreet Research.
Quick Stats:
- 70% of Canadians have an unfavourable view of Donald Trump
- Trump is most popular in British Columbia (22% Favourable) and Alberta (24% Favourable)
- 52% have a favourable view of Hilary Clinton, down 18% from last year
- 67% Say Cruz can run for the Presidency
Net Scores: Clinton +30, Sanders +21, Trump -51, Cruz -11
Hillary Clinton continues to lead other Democrats among Canadians with almost 4 in 10 saying they would
vote for her, but Bernie Sanders has made a signicant impression and now has the support of over 25%.
The undecided is also up since 2015, to 32%. Canadian views seem to follow similar patterns as their
American counterparts on both Republican and Democratic candidates. Among Republicans, Canadians
would now support Donald Trump with 16%, followed by Ted Cruz at 10% and Jeb! Bush at 10%.
Despite his lead, over 70% of Canadians have an unfavourable view of Mr. Trump, with just under 20%
having a favourable view. Although Ted Cruz only slightly outperforms Trump with 21% of Canadians having
a favourable view of him, only 31% have an unfavourable view of Mr. Cruz. Canadians also tend to agree with
Cruz about his eligibility for the Presidency, over two thirds say his Canadian birth to American parents,
shouldn't aect his eligibility to run for President despite Mr. Trump's assertions to the contrary.
Hilary Clinton is viewed favourably by 52% of Canadians compared to Bernie Sanders's 34% and is viewed
unfavourably by 22% of Canadians compared to just 13% unfavourable for Bernie Sanders. Canadians have
a more favourable view of the Democrats (on average among the various candidates) than the
Republicans, he nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

B3

Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Democratic Nomination: Hillary
Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or Martin OMalley?

32%
39%

Clinton
Sanders
OMalley
Undecided

+/-15%
+18%
+2%
-4%

3%

26%

Clinton

Sanders

OMalley

Undecided

HILLARY CLINTON
BERNIE SANDERS
MARTIN OMALLEY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34
30%
40%
3%
27%
560

35-49
39%
23%
3%
35%
1239

HILLARY CLINTON
BERNIE SANDERS
MARTIN OMALLEY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

BC
33%
24%
4%
40%
846

AB
39%
20%
2%
39%
960

50-64
43%
20%
3%
34%
1429
Prairies
42%
22%
3%
34%
681

65+ Male Female

47% 37%
42%
18% 28%
23%
2%
3%
3%
33% 32%
33%
1709 2278 2659
ON
38%
27%
3%
32%
1019

QC
44%
30%
2%
23%
887

ATL
42%
23%
3%
32%
544

B4

Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Republican nomination: Jeb
Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Ben Carson or John Kasich?
10%

10%

6%

Bush
Cruz
Rubio
Trump
Carson
Kasich
Undecided

50%

+/-7%
+6%
-3%
+5%
+4%
+4%
+4%

16%

4%

Bush

Cruz

Rubio

4%

Trump

Carson

Kasich

JEB BUSH
TED CRUZ
MARCO RUBIO
DONALD TRUMP
BEN CARSON
JOHN KASICH
UNDECIDED

18-34
10%
8%
9%
11%
7%
3%
51%

35-49
9%
9%
4%
21%
4%
3%
51%

JEB BUSH
TED CRUZ
MARCO RUBIO
DONALD TRUMP
BEN CARSON
JOHN KASICH
UNDECIDED

BC
9%
10%
4%
19%
6%
1%
50%

AB
14%
13%
3%
20%
3%
2%
44%

50-64
9%
12%
5%
17%
3%
4%
50%
Prairies
12%
11%
5%
15%
5%
3%
48%

Undecided

65+ Male Female

12%
9%
10%
12%
11%
9%
7%
6%
6%
14% 18%
14%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
49% 47%
54%
ON
9%
11%
7%
15%
5%
4%
51%

QC
10%
7%
8%
13%
3%
6%
54%

ATL
9%
11%
6%
16%
4%
4%
51%

B5

In the last republican debate there was an exchange between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump as to whether Cruz,
who was born in Calgary to an American mother, is eligible to run for US President. From everything you have
seen, heard or read, do you believe Ted Cruz is eligible to run for US President, or not?

19%

14%

67%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE

18-34
68%
18%
14%

35-49
64%
15%
21%

YES
NO
NOT SURE

BC
59%
17%
24%

AB
63%
18%
19%

50-64
68%
12%
21%

65+ Male Female

69% 66% 68%
10% 16%
12%
21% 18%
20%

Prairies ON
68%
69%
15%
12%
16%
19%

QC
69%
13%
18%

ATL
68%
12%
20%

B6

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Hilary Clinton?

4%

22%

52%

Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar

+/-18%
+4%
+10%
+4%

22%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH HILLARY CLINTON

18-34
45%
24%
25%
6%

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH HILLARY CLINTON

BC
50%
28%
18%
4%

35-49
54%
23%
19%
4%
AB
49%
33%
15%
3%

Not Familiar
50-64
54%
20%
23%
3%

65+ Male Female

56% 50% 54%
20% 26%
19%
21% 22%
23%
3%
3%
5%

Prairies ON
53%
51%
24%
19%
19%
25%
4%
4%

QC
55%
19%
24%
3%

ATL
54%
18%
24%
4%

B7

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Bernie Sanders?

19%

34%

Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar

+/+18%
-6%
-12%
-1%

34%
13%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH BERNIE SANDERS

18-34
46%
13%
26%
15%

35-49
32%
17%
34%
18%

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH BERNIE SANDERS

BC
30%
17%
32%
22%

AB
31%
18%
35%
16%

Not Familiar
50-64
30%
12%
39%
20%

65+
27%
11%
39%
23%

Prairies ON
34%
35%
15%
12%
32%
35%
19%
19%

Male Female
38%
30%
14%
12%
31%
37%
16%
21%
QC
39%
10%
34%
17%

ATL
31%
12%
36%
20%

B8

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump?

2%
9%
19%

Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar

+/+1%
+5%
-5%
-1%

70%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH DONALD TRUMP

18-34
16%
75%
9%
1%

35-49
23%
67%
9%
2%

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH DONALD TRUMP

BC
22%
65%
11%
2%

AB
24%
62%
12%
3%

Not Familiar
50-64
21%
68%
9%
2%
Prairies
19%
70%
9%
2%

65+
16%
71%
10%
2%
ON
19%
71%
9%
1%

Male Female
22%
17%
68%
72%
8%
10%
2%
2%
QC
16%
76%
7%
2%

ATL
19%
70%
9%
1%

B9

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Ted Cruz?

15%
21%

33%

32%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Sure

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH TED CRUZ

18-34
17%
39%
29%
15%

FAVOURABLE
UNFAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
NOT FAMILIAR WITH TED CRUZ

BC
21%
30%
32%
18%

35-49
20%
33%
33%
14%
AB
28%
25%
34%
13%

Not Familiar
50-64
23%
28%
35%
14%

65+ Male Female

25% 22%
20%
25% 34% 30%
34% 31%
34%
17% 13%
17%

Prairies ON
24%
21%
29%
31%
31%
33%
16%
15%

QC
16%
39%
31%
14%

ATL
21%
31%
33%
15%

B10

Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Democratic
Nomination: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or Martin OMalley?
Hilary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided
Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could for the 2016 Republican
nomination: Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Ben Carson or John Kasich?
Jeb Bush
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Undecided
In the last republican debate there was an exchange between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump as
to whether Cruz, who was born in Calgary to an American mother, is eligible to run for US
President. From everything you have seen, heard or read, do you believe Ted Cruz is eligible to
run for US President, or not?
Yes
No
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Hilary Clinton?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not sure
Not familiar with Hilary Clinton
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Bernie Sanders?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not sure
Not familiar with Bernie Sanders

B11

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump?

Favourable
Unfavourable
Not sure
Not familiar with Donald Trump
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Ted Cruz?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not sure
Not familiar with Ted Cruz

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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