Elections Are Always Local

February 04, 2016 at 12:01 am

Emil Jurado/Manila Standard

AS IT was in previous presidential elections, it will be the masa,

the people living below the poverty line, who constitute the bulk of
the electorate that will decide the fate of the presidential
candidates.
Elections in the Philippines are local. It wont be the oligarchs and
the A & B category of voters, but the C and especially the D & E,
who will decide the May 9 polls.
What we are seeing now in poll survey ratings are simply the
sentiments of people at a particular time and place.
To a certain extent, poll surveys may influence peoples thinking.
But voters can still change their minds depending on what they
believe is the best for them.
Thats the reason why it is said that elections are local. People will
go for the candidate who gives them food on the table,
prevents them from starving, and gives them jobs to keep
body and soul together.
Sure, there are command votes like in Muslim Mindanao and
religious sectors like the Iglesia ni Cristo. Still, it is the millions of
poor and unemployed Filipinos who constitute the mass base being
courted by all presidential candidates.
This is why the presidential candidate who has a wellfunded grassroots machinery has the edge over others who
simply mouth slogans and promises.
The Liberal Party candidate, Mar Roxas, should have the edge. After
all, the Aquino administration has a built-in grassroots machinery.
With this, the poor and the unemployed would gravitate to the
candidate they think cares about them. However, Mar does not
qualify.
Thats precisely why the administration is now zeroing in against
Vice President Jejomar Binay. The administration knows that Binay
has a well-funded grassroots machinery which he built as early
when he was still mayor of Makati City. My gulay, how do you think

he was able to beat Mar? In the end, its still funding that counts in
all elections in the Philippines.
The masa constituency of Binay has been validated by the fact
that even at the height of the demolition campaign against him, his
ratings never fell below 20 percent.
Binays surge proves his resiliency. His personal sorties in the
provinces and rural areas, where no presidential bet has gone, is
paying off. There is no substitute for seeing a candidate in person.
The surge in Binays ratings also indicates that the masses do not
believe the charges thrown at him.
Thats why I think the May polls will end up to be a Binay-versus-Mar
fight.
Knowing how desperate BS Aquino III and his cohorts now are in
avoiding jail time, anything can happen.
***
Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Serenos heart bleeds for foundlings. The
chief justice claims that there have been decisions that said
foundlings are presumed natural-born.
Sereno claims that if Mrs. Llamanzares would be disqualified for not
being natural-born, it would be discrimination against hundreds of
thousands of foundlings to seek positions in government.
I am not about to debate Serenos bleeding heart for foundlings. She
certainly knows more about the law and the Constitution than I do.
But the word presumed bothers me because, to qualify as naturalborn, one must be able to show proof.
I will just stick the wordings of the Constitution about natural-born
citizens. The Constitution is very clear in its letter, intent and spirit
that to qualify for the Senate and the presidency, he/she must be
natural-born, and a resident of the country for 10 years before
Election Day.
Yes, Mrs. Llamanzares was a foundling. But, to presume that she is
natural-born is a stretch of the imagination.

Santa Banana, the logic of Serenos arguments confounds me. Why

should foundlings be presumed natural-born when theres no law to
provide such presumption? When theres no law, one cannot
presume.
It may be discriminatory to some, but the Constitutions letter,
intent and spirit must be followed.
While Serenos heart bleeds for foundlings in the case of Mrs.
Llamanzares, how about her lack of residency? The senator lied
when she claimed that she had been a resident for over 10 years
when the CoC or Certificate of Candidacy for the Senate stated that
her residency was only for six years and six months. Poe would
never have corrected this if her attention had not been called last
year. Mrs. Llamanzares still has to disprove the fact that she lied
under oath, not only once on her CoC as a senator, but twice when
he applied for dual citizenship.
***
The economics of BS Aquino III for the more than five years he had
been in office is lamentable. This, despite some window dressing by
former Neda Director General Arsenio Balisacan.
Take, for instance, the fact that the Aquino administration has been
crowing about the strong growth of the economy for the last five
years with an average of 6.2 percent. The fact is that BS Aquino IIIs
statisticians and economists included the last year of the Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo administration when the Gross Domestic Product
rose an unprecedented 8.2 percent, the highest ever under any
administration because of strong economic reforms and
fundamentals.
Smart, huh?
Lets look at facts on the ground. We now have some 11 to 12
million who consider themselves poor, three million of them
starving, in fact. There also some 10 to 11 million unemployed. So,
whats all this focus on GDP at 6.2 percent on the average all about
when the numbers of the poor and the jobless are increasing? To
them, GDP growth rate is meaningless.
Perhaps the best way to see how the Philippines is faring is to look
at Foreign Direct Investments
in Southeast Asia where the

Philippines continues to get the lowest inflows. From 2010 to 2014,

the Philippines drew a total of US$ only as 16 billion, dwarfed by
Singapores $292 billion; Indonesias $107 billion; Malaysias $57
billion; and Thailands $50 billion.
My gulay, even Vietnam, which used to trail behind the Philippines
or most microeconomic indicators, attracted about 2.5 times bigger
than that of the Philippines at $42 billion.
Santa Banana, something must be wrong with the economics of BS
Aquino III, and to think that he finished economics at the Ateneo.
Mrs. Arroyo who was his economics professor should have failed
him.