TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Jim McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt

RE: Alabama Statewide
Survey Results Republican Primary for U.S. Senate
Date: January 28th, 2016
SURVEY SUMMARY:
Senator Richard Shelby is well positioned to win the Republican primary. Shelby
receives an impressive 75% on the ballot outright and is very popular with voters.
Since November, Senator Shelby has seen an improvement in all of his key metrics
and has significantly driven up the intensity to his numbers.
Key Takeaways:
Senator Shelby receives 75% on the ballot, an increase of four points from November.

Jonathan McConnell receives 9% and John Martin, Shadrack McGill and Marcus Bowman
each receive 1%. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided.
Now, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you
vote?
(Candidates Rotated)

Vote Shelby
Vote McConnell
Vote McGill
Vote Martin
Vote Bowman
Undecided

Jan. 27, 2016

75%
9%
1%
1%
1%
13%

Nov. 17, 2015

71%
5%
1%
2%
1%
20%

Nearly eight in ten (79%) approve of the job Senator Shelby is doing, while just 14%
disapprove. This is a net improvement of four points from November.
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Richard Shelby is doing in the U.S. Senate?

Approve
Disapprove
DK/Refused
APPROVE-DISAPPROVE

Jan. 27, 2016

79%
14%
7%
+65

Nov. 17, 2015

75%
14%
11%
+61

Continued on Next Page:

__________________________________________________________________
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

Three in four (74%) have a favorable opinion of Senator Shelby, with only 11%
unfavorable, a net gain of nine points from November.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Richard Shelby?

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
NO OPINION
NEVER HEARD OF
FAV. UNFAV

Jan. 27, 2016

74%
11%
15%
0%
+63

Nov. 17, 2015

67%
13%
16%
5%
+54

Jonathan McConnell remains largely unknown, attaining only 61% soft name awareness.
Among the voters who are aware of McConnell, opinions are divided, 16% favorable to
11% unfavorable.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jonathan McConnell?

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
NO OPINION
NEVER HEARD OF
FAV. UNFAV

Jan. 27, 2016

16%
11%
34%
39%
+4

Nov. 17, 2015

10%
7%
30%
53%
+3

BOTTOM LINE:
Senator Shelby continues to hold a decisive lead in the Republican primary. Shelby has
a clear base of support with intensity to his numbers. It appears that Jonathan
McConnells negative political attacks are backfiring, as Senator Shelbys numbers
have improved in spite of these attacks. Furthermore, Jonathan McConnells image is
very weak and his unfavorables are increasing as a result of the negative campaign
that he has chosen to run.
Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 600 likely 2016 Republican primary voters in Alabama on
th
th
January 25 and 26 , 2016. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. To increase
coverage, 25% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. Interview selection was random and interviews were
stratified by county, race, age and gender to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous statewide Republican
primary elections. This poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

__________________________________________________________________
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008