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A
P(Bi )
i=1 i
P(A/Bi)-Probability of occurrence of A when Bi has already
happened.
P(A) =
P B
Bayes Theorem
If B1, B2, B3,...... Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive random
events whose individual probabilities are greater than zero, and A
be an event within these events. (P(A) > 0), then,
B
P i =
A
A
P
Bi
. P(E i )
n
A
P B P(Bi )
i =1 i
Sample Problem
1.
There are two bags A and B having 2 white and 1 black ball
in bag A and 1 white and 3 black balls in bag B. A bag is
chosen at random and two balls are drawn. The balls were
one white and one black ball. What is the probability that it
is from bag B ?
1
Probability of choosing a bag = P(A) = P(B) =
2
Let X be probability of choosing 2 balls.
We have to find P(B/X)
By Bayes theorem
X
P . P(B)
B
P(B/X) =
X
X
P . P(A) + P . P(B)
A
B
X
P
1
B
P(A) = P(B) =
=
X
X
2
P + P
A
B
2!
1 2
2
1
C1 C1 1!1!
2
X
=
=1 =
P =
3
3
!
3
3
A
C2
2 !1!
1
X
P =
B
=
B
P =
X
3!
3
C1 C1
2!
1
=
=
4
4!
3 4
C2
2!2!
2
3 1
=
6 2
1
1
2 = 2
2 1 4+3
+
3 2
6
1 6 3
=
2 7 7
1
Conditional probability
B
P(AB) = P(A) . P
A
B
P . P(A)
A
A
P =
P(B)
B
Consider one event B which occurs after occurrence of event A,
then
P(B A)
B
P =
P(A)
A
number of elements in A B
no of elements in A
B
i.e., P(B A) = P(A) . P
A
[Multiplication theorem of conditional probability]
Sample Problem
1.
If a pair of die is thrown and the sum of numbers that
appeared is 7. Find the probability that one of dice shows 3.
Total elements in sample space = 6 6 = 36
Sample spaces of occurred sum of 7, B = {(1, 6), (2, 5),
(3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}
Sample space of occurrence of one element as 3 = [(1, 3)
(2, 3) (3, 3) (4, 3) (5, 3) (6, 3), (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 4) (3, 5),
(3, 6)]
(A B) = {(3, 4), (4, 3)}
6
36
2
P(A B) =
36
P(B) =
P(A) =
11
36
2
P(A B)
A
36
P =
=
6
B
P(B)
36
2 1
= =
6 3
mean
x =
fi xi
i =1
n
fi
i =1
- C
h
2
median = L' +
f
L-lower limit of median class
N-total frequency = S fi
h -width of median class.
C-cumulative frequency upto class preceding median class
f -cumulative frequency of median class
Mode : It is the value that occur most frequently or it is the value
with maximum frequency.
fi - f i -1
h
( fi - f i -1 ) + ( fi - fi +1 )
L-lower limit of class certaining mode
fi-maximum frequency
fi1-frequency preceding fi
fi+1-frequency just after fi
h-size of model class
Points to be noted
For asymmetric distribution : mean = medians = mode
For normal distribution : mean mode
= 3(mean median).
mode =
Sample Problem
1.
Find the median and mode of following data.
Age group
No. of people
Age
No. of Cumulative
group people frequency
0-10
5
5
10-20
20-30
30-40
7
9
6
12
21
27
40-50
35
N = 35
Median class : 20 30
3
N
-C
h
2
Median = L +
f
35
- 12
10
2
= 20 +
21
= 20.62
Mode
Max frequency = a
\ Modal class is 20 30 \ a = 20
Mode = a +
mr .e - m
r!
C( fi - fi -1 )
( f i - f i -1 ) + ( fi - fi +1 )
= 20 +
10(9 - 7)
(9 - 7) + (9 - 6)
= 20 +
10 2
= 24
2+3
standard deviation = m
Normal Distribution
A continuous random variable X follow normal distribution if its
probability density function f (x) is given by:
f (x) =
1
2ps2
(X -m )2
2s 2
Standard Deviation
It is the square root of mean of squared of the difference of values
from their arithmetic mean. It is denoted by s.
S( xi - x )2
Sfi
s=
S f i di
Sf d
- i i C
Sf i
Sf i
s=
deviation (s2)
X(ai ) . P(ai )
i =1
npq
1.
2.
3.
4.
1
2
(b)
1
3
(c)
1
4
(d)
1
5
[2008, 2 marks]
5.
1 + exp 1.7255 x N x N
0.12
6.
7.
8.
(a) 66.7%
(b) 50.0%
(c) 33.3%
(d) 16.7%
Two coins are simultaneously tossed. The probability of
two heads simultaneously appearing is [2010, 1 mark]
(a)
1
8
(b)
1
6
(c)
1
4
(d)
1
2
1
7
(b)
9
49
(c)
12
49
(d)
3
7
1
32
(b)
2
32
(c)
3
32
(d)
6
32
1.
2.
3.
1
7
(b)
2
7
(a)
10.
(c)
4.
5.
6.
11
40
(b)
8.
21
1
(d)
40
40
A hydraulic structure has four gates which operate
independently. The probability of failure of each gate is
0.2. Given that gate 1 has failed, the probability that gate
2 and 3 will fail is
(a) 0.24
(b) 0.20
(c) 0.04
(d) 0.008
Six dices are thrown simultaneously. What is the
probability that all will show different faces?
(a)
7!
(b)
(d)
14.
15.
5!
64
1
6
6
What is the expectation of number of failures preceeding
first success in independent trials with constant
probability of success?
(c)
9.
6!
13.
31
40
(c)
7.
12.
1
,
4
2
3
and P(B) = . Then P(A B) =
5
8
(b)
p +1
q +1
q
q +1
(d)
p
p +1
Let X be a normal random variable with mean 1 and
variance 4. The probability P{X < 0} is
(a) 0.5
(b) greater than zero and less than 0.5
(c) greater than 0.5 and less than 1.0
(d) 1.0
The probability that a student knows a correct answer in
a multiple choice question is 2/3. If the student does not
know the answer, he guesses the answer. The probability
that the guessed answer being correct is 1/4. Given that
the student has answered the question correctly, the
conditional probability that the student knows the correct
answer is
(a) 2/3
(b) 3/4
(c) 5/6
(d) 8/9
An automobile plant contracted to buy shock absorbers
from two suppliers X and Y. X supplies 60% and Ysupplies
40% of the shock absorbers. All shock absorbers are
subjected quality test. The ones that pass the quality test
are considered reliable. Of X's shock absorber, 96% are
reliable. Of Y's shock absorbers, 72% are reliable. The
probability that a randomly chosen shock absorber, which
is found reliable, is made by Y is
A box contains 4 red balls and 6 black balls. Three balls
are chosen at random from one box one after other, without
replacement. The probability that the selected set contain
one red ball and two black balls is
(a) 1/20
(b) 1/12
(c) 3/10
(d) 1/2
An unbiased coin is tossed five times. The outcome of
each toss either head/tail. Probability of getting at least
one head is
(a) 1/32
(b) 13/32
(c) 16/32
(d) 31/32
A box contain 2 washers, 3 nuts and 4 bolts. Items are
drawn from a box at random one at a time without
replacement. The probability of drawing 2 washers first
followed by 3 nuts and subsequently the forth bolt is:
(a) 2/315
(b) 1/630
(c) 1/1260
(d) 1/2520
A standard deviation of a uniformly distributed random
variable between 0 and 1 is
(c)
11.
3
4
(d)
7
7
A box contains 10 screws, 3 of which are defective.
Two screws are drawn at random with replacement.
The probability that none of the two screws will
be defective
(a) 100%
(b) 50%
(c) 47%
(d) none of these
For a data, mode is 16 and mean is 22, then median is
equal to
(a) 60
(b) 66
(c) 20
(d) 38
p
q
16.
(a)
(c)
12
5
12
(b)
(d)
7
12
6
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
1
1
and
respectively.
9
4
2
36
(b)
27.
k
p (x = k )
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
26.
(a)
( 2)
(c)
1
2
(b)
10
1
C2
2
(d)
10
1
C2
2
10
10
2
0.2
3
0.4
4
0.2
5
0.1
8
3
(b)
9
3
(c)
17
3
(d)
26
2e
2e
2e
2e3
If two fair coins are flipped and at least one of the
outcomes is known to be a head, what is the probability
that both outcome are heads?
1
2
1
1
(b)
(c)
(d)
3
3
4
2
Consider a company that assembles computers. The
probability of a faulty assembly of any computer is p. The
company therefore subjects each computer to a testing
process. This testing process gives the correct result for
any computer with a probability q. what is the probability
of a computer being declared faulty?
(a) pq + (1 p) (1 q)
(b) (1 q) p
(c) (1 p) q
(d) pq
An exam paper has 150 multiple choice question of 1 mark
each with each question having 4 choices. Each incorrect
answer fetches 0.25 marks. Suppose 1000 students chose
all their answer randomly with uniform probability. The
sum total of the expected marks obtained by all the
students is
Seven car accidents occurred in a week, what is the
probability that they all occurred on the same day?
(a)
33.
(c)
25.
1
0 .1
2
6
5
1
(d)
12
2
A coin is tossed independently 4 times. The probability
of the event the no. of times heads show up is more than
no. of times tail shows up is
(a) 1/16
(b) 1/8
(c) 1/4
(d) 5/16
A fair coin is tossed 10 times. What is the probability that
only the first two tosses will yield heads?
34.
35.
(a)
1
7
(b)
1
7
(c)
1
7
(d)
7
27
1.
(b) P =
6.
C1 25C4
25
C2
P=
2.
(b)
3
C1
PB = 7
C1
1
.
3
1
1
P x =
3
3
1
3
1
3
f ( x ) dx
1
3
x 2 dx
1
3
1
3
= 2 f ( x ) dx
4
C1 3 C1 12
.
=
required probability, P = 7 7
C1
C1 49
7.
(a)
8.
[f(x) is even]
2
x3 3
= 2
=
81
3
2
100 = 2.47%.
81
(a) P (using private car) = 0.45
\ P (using public transport) = 1 0.45 = 0.55
P (using bus) = 0.55 0.55 = 0.3
P (using metro) = 1 (0.45 + 0.3) = 0.25
(d) Probability, P(90 x 102)
4.
1.
(b) P(women), p =
40 2
=
100 5
3
5
\ p (2 women members) = 5C2 p2 q3
\ q=
12
12
1 + exp 1.7255
27
27
1
1
=
1 + 1 1 + exp ( 0.6870)
5.
PRACTICE EXERCISE
12
F(0) F
27
1
1 + exp (0)
1 1
1 1
C0 + 5C1
2 2
2 2
5
102 102
90 102
12
= P
z
= P
z 0
27
27
27
1 1
6
1
= 11 + 5 = .
2
2 2
32
% of P =
3.
1
2
(Total probability is one and each are equally likely
to occur)
Required probability
= P (no negative value) + P (one negative value)
1
.
4
5 4 2 3
1 2 5 5
= .346.
2.
(d) np = 5, npq = 3
\ q=
3
5
\ p=1
3 2
=
5 5
25
2
Mode x is given by
np + p > x > np q
\ n=
8
\ E(x) = 0 . p + 1 . qp + 2 q2p + .....
= qp (1 + 2p + 3q2 + .....)
2
3
5+
>x>5
5
5
27
22
>x>
5
5
5.4 > x > 4.4
\ x = 5.
3.
4.
(c) P =
10.
11.
6.
31 1
40 4
31 10 21
= .
40
40
9.
(b) m = 1
m
)
s
2
3
1
4
R
R
P = 0.96 , P = 0.72
X
Y
Y P(Y R)
P =
R
P(R)
16 + 15 1
=
40
4
6!
q
.
P
2
8
3
Required probability =
2 1 1 9
+
3 3 4
2 3 1
= +
5 8 4
\ P=
5.
8.
qp
1
= P(Z < )
2
= P (Z < 0.5)
P (X < 0) = 0.5 P (0 < z < 5)
7
47%.
=
15
7.
(1 q ) 2
P (X < 0) = P (Z <
2
.
7
C0 7 C2
10
C2
qp
5!
6
13.
P(Y)P(R )
Y
P(X)P R + P(Y)P R
X
Y
0.4 0.72
0.6 0.96 + 0.4 0.72
0.288
= 0.334
.864
( )
1
n
14.
xi
i =1
Pi xi
i=1
( )
C1 6C1
10
C3
4 15
120
1
2
1
1
(d) n = 5, p = , q =
2
2
P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
1
= 1 5C0
2
31
32
9
15.
16.
2 1 3 2 1 4 3
2 1
1
=
9 8 7 6 5 5 3
2 1 1260
18.
19.
20.
Req. prob =
25.
36 =
= 4 C3 ( 1 2 )
26.
1 1 1
(c) P (first two tosses is head) = =
2 2 2
21.
22.
= P[X x] P [Y y]
1
1
dx
2
1
=
2
1 1
10
Required probability = = ( 1 2 )
2 2
27.
28.
(c)
X + 4 = 2 = P[(X + Y = 2) (X Y = 0)]
P
P(X Y = 0)
X Y = 0
2 dy
P(X = 1,Y = 1)
(solving)
P(X Y = 0)
1 3 3
4 2 2
=
29.
30.
9
16
3
23.
1
2 1
1/ 2
= [ x ]1/
1 [ y ]1
2
2
1 1
1
P (remaining 8 tosses is tail) = ... (8 times)
2 2
2
( 2 ) + 4 C2 ( 1 2 ) 4
3 1
= 5/16
Total 36 cases.
= 1 P = 1
15 5
=
36 12
(d) n = 4
Let X be event of showing no. of heads.
Req. prob = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)
12
(d) Required probability (getting at least one head)
= 1 P (getting no head)
= 1 3C0 (1/2)0 (1\2)3 = 7/8
(a) P(X = 3) = 4C3 (1/2)3 (1/2) = 1/4
(d)
(d) First find probability of getting sum 8 or 9
S = (2, 6) (3, 5) (4, 4) (5, 3) (6, 2); (3, 6) (4, 5) (5, 4)
(6, 3)
\ n=9
P(E) =
(b a)2
for a < x < b
12
(1 0)2 1
=
12
12
SD = s =
17.
24.
1
4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1
+ +
2 2 4 4 4 4
1
1 1 1
(c) Probability = + + + ....
2 2 2
1
2
= 2 =
1 3
1
4
Req. prob =
1
2
1
2
1 1 1
= = 0.25
2 2 4
10
31.
(c) P(X< 3) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
= e3 + 3e3 +
32.
9e
2
1
0.25
0.25
0.75
1
3
Ans : 9375
Marks
Probability
9 17 3
3
= e 1 + 3 + = e
2 2
(a) Total available out comes ={(H, T) (T, H) (H, H)}
Required probability =
33.
34.
35.
1
1
7
(b) Required probability = C1 7 = 6
7
7