Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Regional REITs
DBS Group Research . Equity 14 May 2008
Solid fundamentals: Thai PFPOs offer an attractive proposition Source: DBS Vickers
for long-term investors looking for value. Average sector yield Prices as of 7 May 2008
of 7.7% is one of the highest in the region. After having lagged
the region in recent years, we believe it is at an inflexion point.
Positive economic fundamentals and investor friendly policy
changes stemming from removal of capital controls, should
provide a firm base for a re-rating. While we recognize illiquidity
could be a constraint, large cap PFPOs like CPNRF and SPF, with
free float of about US$215m and US$160m should enjoy
investor attention.
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Industry Focus
Regional REITs
Hong Kong 69
Champion REIT 70
Fortune REIT 72
Prosperity REIT 74
Thailand 77
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund 78
Samui Airport Property Fund 80
Malaysia 83
Axis REIT 84
Appendix
Economic Forecasts 87
REIT News 88
Property News Snippets 89
Regional REIT Guidelines 90
Page 2
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
for the smaller cap REITs such as FCT and Suntec to play catch
REGIONAL SUMMARY up.
Strategy Relative Yield Comparison of S-REIT and HK-REIT
We have identified 3 key themes across our regional universe
5.0%
going forward
i) exposure into the resilient retail sector
4.0%
ii) Thailand as a value play
iii) attractive relative valuation of Singapore over HK 3.0%
Page 3
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
• EPRA NAREIT Index underperformed global REITs YTD by 20%
• Australian and Japan markets were the worst performers, down 16.4% and 13.2%
• Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia markets outperformed the EPRA NAREIT Asia Index YTD
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Global Europe US EPRA Australia Japan HK Spore Malaysia Thailand
NAREIT
Source: Bloomberg
110
100
100
90
80 80
70
60 60
J-08 J-08 F-08 M-08 A-08 M-08
J-08 J-08 F-08 M-08 A-08 M-08
S-reit HK-reit T-reit M-reit EPRA NAREIT Singapore Hong Kong Thailand Malaysia
HK
1.6% Spore
4.3%
Msia
0.3%
Thai
Nth America 0.3%
53.1%
ANZ
12.3%
Page 4
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Thailand Australia Malaysia Singapore Japan US HK Europe
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Office Retail Industrial Hotel Residential Svc Apt Healthcare Cinema Airport Plantation
Page 5
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 6
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 7
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
IN CONVERSATION
with Mr Pua Seck Guan, CEO
CapitaMall Trust
This section aims to share management’s views and thoughts with investors on a regular basis through a Q&A session. In this
inaugural edition, we feature CapitaMall Trust, the largest S-REIT by market cap and leading retail mall operator in Singapore. We
have the pleasure of speaking with Mr Pua Seck Guan, CEO of CapitaMall Trust Management Ltd, the REIT manager for CMT, who
shared his view of the retail market in Singapore and CMT’s strategy going forward.
Page 8
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Q. Can you comment on the retail landscape evolution in not more than 50bps between the high-end and good
Singapore pre and post establishment of REITs? suburban malls. More important is the level of sustainable
A. Managing retail properties through a REIT structure has income that the properties can generate.
benefited the entire retail industry. The establishment of REIT
has transformed the real estate industry as developers have Q. What is CMT’s strategy in terms of growth and
increased confidence in investing in large projects as REITs positioning going forward?
offer an exit strategy to developers. The retail industry has A. In terms of growth thrusts, CMT has always focused on
benefited from such large-scale projects as it has drawn more delivering not only DPU growth but also total returns to
new-to-market retailers. Post establishment, talent pool of unitholders. This is via both organic and asset enhancement
professional asset and retail managers taking a disciplined and initiatives as well as acquisition strategies. An estimated 40%
professional approach to enhance asset value, extract higher of CMT’s DPU growth since listing comes from AEI activities,
total returns to unitholders, as well as providing more vibrant where with professional management, we were able to deliver
and varieties in shopping experience for customers and higher returns via increased efficiency as well as proper
channel capital to enhance assets for higher returns. monitoring of retail sales. Our larger size also enables us to
have economies of scale.
Q. What is your view on the retail leasing landscape in
Singapore given that there are 3 mega and high-end In terms of positioning, we are keen to be market leaders in all
malls coming up along Orchard Rd? segments of the retail market. We target to achieve an S$8bn
A. Speaking from the perspective of ION Orchard, we have asset size by 2010. Pipeline is clear. In addition to ION Orchard,
been able to attract new tenants, flagship stores of other buildings such as Clarke Quay and One North are also
international standards which are comparable to key gateway potential investment candidates.
cities such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, London and New York. The
market is also deepening. The establishment of 2 IRs, Youth Q. Can you share more colour on the overseas strategy
Olympics, F1 will draw more tourist arrivals as well as growth plans for CMT?
convention crowd, benefiting from growth in China and India. A. Singapore will remain our core market and we would target
With more immigration and government policy to drive for it to account for about 70% of assets. In terms of overseas
population from 4.5m to 6m, there is a lot of scope for retail assets, we have started with a 20% stake in CRCT for China
mall operators. In terms of global benchmarks, Singapore is retail exposure. Capitaland has established presence in the
still lagging in terms of rental per capita, trailing at one third of retail sector in Malaysia as well as India. We have stated before
HK and 20% of US. This gives a lot of upside. Also, Singapore that Malaysia is where things could happen this year.
is moving towards a more service oriented economy and
income is still rising. These are all positive indicators for the Q. How do you see M&A activity panning out in the
retail sector. retail REIT segment?
A. Anecdotal evidence has shown that a REIT does not trade
Q. How do you see occupancy costs performing and well if it does not meet investor expectations. Hence, we see
where do you see room for growth? the differences within each sub-segment.
A. Currently, occupancy costs for suburban properties are
within the 13-18% range and we believe that at 20%, it is still Q. CMT has a fairly sizeable amount of refinancing due
at a healthy mark. In terms of the high-end, some are still in in 2009. When is that due and what are your plans in this
the region of 6-8% and there is certainly room for growth. respect?
A. CMT has about $655m of debt to be refinanced in 2H09.
Q. The completion of high-end malls and suburban This is made up of $335m CMBS issue and $320m term loan
complexes would introduce more polarization into the due in August. Depending on market conditions then, we
retail market. What is you view on retail cap rates going would consider both equity as well as debt options.
forward?
A. Retail cap rates in general are likely to stabilize at current
levels, 5-5.5%. We think there would be a slight difference, of
Page 9
Corporate Profile
CapitaMall Trust
Bloomberg: CT SP | Reuters: CMLT.SI
BUY S$3.56 FSSTI: : 3,228.95 CMT offers investors exposure to the relatively more resilient
retail sector with earnings upside coming from positive organic
Price Target: 12-Month S$3.93
rental growth and asset enhancement initiatives. Its
Description attractiveness is also underpinned by a strong acquisition
CapitaMall Trust (CMT) owns and invests in quality income- pipeline visibility from its sponsor, which should enable the
producing retail assets in Singapore. CMT’s portfolio group to retain its pole position as the largest listed Singapore-
consists of 13 retail malls with an appraised value of centric retail S-REIT over the medium term.
S$5.9bn as at 31 Dec 2007. CMT also holds a 20% stake in The retail rental upcycle should benefit CMT with 55% of its
CapitaRetail China Trust, another retail REIT listed on the
gross revenue due for renewal over FY08-09. AEI accounts for
SGX, which invests in retail malls in China.
about 38% of DPU growth since listing. It has earmarked
capex of S$265m in FY08-09 which should not impact its
Manager & Strategy
The Manager of (CMT) is CapitaMall Trust Management balance sheet given a low gearing of 37%. In the longer run,
Limited (CMTML), who is an indirect wholly owned ION Orchard, Clarke Quay and One North, could be injected
subsidiary of CapitaLand Limited, one of Asia’s largest listed into the REIT, to expand its asset base towards its target of
real estate companies. S$8b by 2010.
The stock is trading at FY08-09 yields of 4.3-4.8% and is 10%
Sponsor below our target price of $3.93.
Capitaland is one of Asia’s largest listed real estate
companies, providing CMT with an acquisition pipeline.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
(x)
S$ 2.4
5.5 Ceiling 3%
2.2
5.0
2.0
4.5
1.8
4.0
Mid 4% 1.6
3.5
CMT 1.4
3.0
2.0 1.0
1.5 0.8
1.0 Jan-03 A ug-03 M ar-04 Oct-04 M ay-05 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 A pr-08
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 May-08 Dec-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
(%)
5.0
8.0
4.0 7.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
2.0 4.0
3.0
1.0 2.0
0.0 1.0
0.0
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 A pr-08
CM T FSSTI FSTRE Real Estate
CM T M A S 10 yr Govt Bo nd
Page 10
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
CapitaMall Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details ( Top ten properties by Valuation)
S$m
Valuation Val
600 76% NLA sqf S$'m 1 S$psf
74% Bugis Junction 420,713 720 1,711
500
72% Bukit Panjang Plaza 134,862 251 1,861
70% Funan DigitaLife Mall 296,601 304.5 1,027
400 Hougang Plaza 70,095 50.5 720
68% Retail: 418,261
300 66% IMM Building Office: 489,314 600 661
64% Junction 8 246,476 521 2,114
200
62% Jurong Entertainment
60% Centre 110,764 89 804
100
58% Lot One Shopper's Mall 198,994 385.5 1,937
0 56% Plaza Singapura 497,467 922 1,853
Retail: .362,173
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F Raffles City Office: 380,288 2586 3,483
Gro ss Revenues NP I NP I M argin RHS
Rivervale Mall 81,564 86 1,054
Sembawang Shopping
Centre 323,487 94 291
Tampines Mall 323,487 720 2,226
20.0% 500
15.0% 400
10.0% 300
5.0% 200
100
0.0%
2008 2009 2010 >2010 0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Gross revenue 332 408 473 515 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 65.6 72.9 73.7 74.7
Property expenses (114) (110) (125) (130) Net Income Margins (%) 50.5 50.8 51.4 51.9
Net Property Income 218 297 348 385 Dist to revenue (%) 51.1 53.7 54.2 54.8
Other Operating expenses (23) (32) (34) (36) Managers & Trustee’s fees 6.9 7.8 7.3 7.0
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (42) (63) (76) (88) ROAE (%) 6.4 6.2 6.5 7.2
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.3
Net Income 167 207 243 267 ROCE (%) 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.9
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Net Income After Tax 167 207 243 267 Aggregate Leverage (%) 35.6 34.8 36.6 37.9
Total Return 420 498 243 267 Operating CFPS (S cts) 14.2 17.7 14.7 15.8
Non-tax deductible Items 2 12 13 15 Free CFPS (S cts) (45.0) 19.6 6.3 9.7
Net Inc available for Dist. 169 219 256 282
Page 11
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
SINGAPORE
REITS PERFORMANCE TRACKER
The S-REIT sector has grown to 20 REITs since starting in 5.5-5.7% FY08 yields while industrial REITs are averaging
2002 with a market cap of S$28b, accounting for 28% of 7%. In terms of P/BV, the sector is trading at 0.9x compared
the Far East market share and 4.3% of the global market. In to the high of 1.1x in 2007. Retail REITs are generally
terms of diversity, assets of S-REITs are spread-out over trading above book NAV, at 1.1-1.5x as investors accord a
Singapore (77%), HK/China/Japan (15%) and the remaining premium for value creation through asset enhancement
in rest of SEA, ANZ and other countries. Office, retail and activities and the more resilient rental outlook. In contrast,
industrial properties make up 84% of the asset base by office REITs are trading below book NAV as investors priced
value. in a potential peaking in office rents.
S-REITs have generally done better, year to Apr 08, Refinancing concerns will continue to be the focus of
rebounding close to 40% from the low in Feb-Mar 08 investors’ attention under the current tight credit market
period. Convertible bond issues by Suntec and CCT as well conditions. There is an estimated $2.4b of debt maturing for
as strong 1Q08 results allayed investors’ fears. Of note is the remainder of 2008 and $3.8b in 2009, or about 47% of
CMT, which rose 40% from the trough to a new year’s high total S-REIT indebtedness and c18% of sector’s enterprise
of $3.72. Suntec, which was earlier adversely impacted by value.
negative newsflow on its refinancing activities, saw a more
moderate 20% pick up. While acquisition growth had slowed down significantly,
recent proposed purchases by CCT of One George St, to be
In mid Apr 08, we upgraded our call on the property sector funded via debt and easing of pressure on cap rates as
to overweight as disparities between stock valuations and sellers become more realistic in the more subdued present
physical prices appear overdone. However, developers are environment, could provide another catalyst for S-REIT
likely to trade range bound in the short term in the absence performance. Average sector gearing is still at a healthy
of catalysts such as improving take up at new home 33%. On the flipside, S-REITs with refinancing concerns and
launches. high gearing such as MLT are likely to underperform its
peers until it degears its balance sheet.
Valuations
Our top S-REIT selections are those in the retail and
S-REITs are yielding an average 5.5% or 3.6% spread over hospitality sectors as both are enjoying positive rental
the 10-year rate, the highest yield gap since early 2005 growth trends such as CMT, FCT and CDL HT.
helped by continued DPU growth and a declining interest
rate environment. Office, retail and hotel REITs are offering
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Page 12
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
DPU / EPS* Book Price/
Share Target
Price Price Recmd DPU / EPS * (S cts) CAGR (%) Yield (%) / PE (x)* NAV PS BV
Singapore FYE (S$) (S$) 07 08 09 07-09 07 08 09 (S cts) (x)
REITs
Allco Dec 0.825 1.23 Buy 6.7 6.6 6.7 0 8.2 8.0 8.1 143 0.6
Ascendas Reit Mar 2.68 2.86 Buy 12.7 14.1 15.6 10 4.8 5.3 5.8 184 1.5
Ascendas India Mar 1.26 1.84 Buy 5.4 6.1 7.3 17 4.3 4.8 5.8 104 1.2
Ascott Residence Trust Dec 1.30 2.30 Buy 7.7 8.6 9.5 11 5.9 6.6 7.3 159 0.8
CapitaCommercial Trust Dec 2.35 2.93 Buy 8.7 10.7 12.9 22 3.7 4.5 5.5 273 0.9
CapitaMall Trust Dec 3.56 3.93 Buy 13.8 15.4 17.0 11 3.9 4.3 4.8 223 1.6
Cambridge Ind trust+ Dec 0.71 NR NR 6.3 6.3 6.5 2 8.9 8.9 9.2 77 0.9
CDL HT Dec 2.05 2.90 Buy 9.0 11.9 13.1 21 4.4 5.8 6.4 159 1.3
First REIT+ Dec 0.72 NR NR 7.1 7.3 7.4 2 9.9 10.1 10.3 92 0.8
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Sep 1.33 1.66 Buy 6.5 7.2 7.4 6 4.9 5.4 5.6 114 1.2
K-REIT Asia Dec 1.43 1.96 Buy 8.8 7.4 8.8 0 6.2 5.2 6.1 220 0.7
Lippo Mapletree Reit+ Dec 0.55 NR NR 6.0 6.5 6.2 2 11.0 11.9 11.4 95 0.6
Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT Dec 1.20 1.63 Buy 6.2 7.4 7.7 11 5.2 6.2 6.4 159 0.8
Mapletree Logistics Trust Dec 1.03 1.51 Buy 6.6 7.7 8.2 12 6.4 7.5 8.0 94 1.1
MacarthurCook REIT Mar 0.955 NR NR 7.7 NA 9.2 NA 8.0 NA 9.6 130 0.7
Parkway Life Dec 1.26 1.50 Buy 6.3** 6.6 6.8 4 1.8 5.2 5.4 136 0.9
Suntec Sep 1.61 1.98 Buy 8.1 9.0 9.8 10 5.1 5.6 6.1 247 0.7
Developers
Allgreen Props Dec 1.23 1.66 Buy 9.2 9.8 14.1 24 13.4 12.5 8.7 147 0.8
Capitaland Dec 6.70 7.20 Buy 60.9 49.4 74.6 11 11.0 13.6 9.0 393 1.7
City Devts Dec 11.96 12.81 Buy 77.7 102.9 180.8 53 15.4 11.6 6.6 646 1.9
Ho Bee Invts Dec 1.05 1.24 Buy 36.9 17.6 31.1 -8 2.8 6.0 3.4 125 0.8
Keppel Land Dec 6.00 6.64 Buy 34.1 49.7 58.5 31 17.6 12.1 10.3 364 1.6
SC Global Dec 1.47 1.58 Hold 7.2 21.3 43.2 145 20.5 6.9 3.4 106 1.4
UOL Dec 3.87 5.26 Buy 21.2 28.8 37.1 33 18.3 13.5 10.4 505 0.8
Wheelock Props Dec 2.16 1.85 Fully Valued 20.7 27.5 37.8 35 10.4 7.8 5.7 201 1.1
Wing Tai Jun 2.06 2.17 Hold 51.3 16.4 23.0 -33 4.0 12.5 9.0 202 1.0
Landlords
Singapore Land Dec 7.08 9.82 Buy 33.3 34.3 40.5 10 21.2 20.6 17.5 1007 0.7
UIC Dec 2.72 2.91 Hold 9.0 12.5 17.4 39 30.3 21.7 15.6 251 1.1
Others
Amara Hldgs Dec 0.555 0.82 Buy 0.9 2.6 3.7 103 61.3 21.6 14.9 32.0 1.7
Banyan Tree Hldgs Dec 1.42 2.03 Buy 4.9 5.9 7.6 25 29.0 24.2 18.7 79.6 1.8
Hotel Grand Central Dec 0.99 1.34 Buy 7.3 7.6 8.0 5 13.6 13.0 12.4 124.7 0.8
Hotel Properties Dec 2.91 3.98 Buy 10.0 18.1 24.4 56 29.1 16.1 11.9 249.4 1.2
ARA Asset Mgmt Dec 0.75 1.13 Buy 5.8 6.4 8.1 18 12.8 11.8 9.3 19.3 3.9
Page 13
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
No of Avg
Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) NPI / Gross Margins * (%) Price Performance (%) Units / Free float Liquidity
Shares
Singapore 08 08 08 07 08 09 3M 6M 12M *(m) (%) (‘000)
REITs
Allco 47 3.0 1.6 81.6 82.0 81.8 11 (19) (34) 710 76.3 2,426
Ascendas Reit 38 7.9 4.7 74.3 75.6 75.6 22 7 0 1,326 67.1 5,129
Ascendas India 19 0.4 0.3 58.7 58.9 59.5 10 (26) 7 753 48.8 1,821
Ascott Residence Trust 36 4.2 2.4 45.0 44.2 44.6 2 (12) (34) 608 53.9 957
CapitaCommercial Trust 38 3.5 2.4 72.5 79.7 81.1 19 (6) (21) 1,386 59.6 4,476
CapitaMall Trust 37 6.5 4.0 72.9 73.7 74.7 20 2 (14) 1,664 65.8 5,346
Cambridge Ind Trust # 37 8.3 5.2 86.4 NA NA 12 (1) (18) 795 84.2 1,939
CDL HT 19 6.9 5.4 94.7 92.7 91.4 (5) (12) 6 825 45.5 1,588
First REIT# 16 7.7 5.7 99.1 NA NA 1 (8) (9) 273 79.7 338
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 41 5.2 3.2 66.7 68.0 68.5 12 (10) (24) 619 42.9 443
K-Reit Asia 28 1.1 0.6 70.5 67.9 68.5 (13) (50) (55) 647 28.8 472
Lippo Mapletree Reit # 10 9.2 7.1 94.2 NA NA (12) NA NA 1,062 43.3 3,283
Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT 30 4.2 2.8 74.6 78.5 78.8 13 6 (4) 954 67.6 1,755
Mapletree Logistics Trust 61 8.2 3.3 88.1 90.0 90.0 16 (11) (26) 1,108 70.0 2,817
MacarthurCook Reit # 28 13.6 9.8 74.9 NA NA 4 (18) (18) 261 73.1 670
Parkway Life 8 4.7 4.4 93.6 94.3 94.6 11 2 (2) 602 53.5 902
Suntec 27 3.3 2.5 73.9 74.5 75.4 8 (9) (19) 1,493 83.5 8,709
Developers
Allgreen Props 23 6.8 4.2 44.2 50.0 50.0 8 (22) (29) 1,590 47.1 4,093
Capitaland 52 14.7 5.8 35.0 35.0 35.0 18 (12) (19) 2,821 60.0 14,085
City Devts 40 16.9 7.5 52.4 63.3 67.6 4 (19) (28) 909 68.2 3,158
Ho Bee Invts 77 15.0 6.2 45.8 45.8 45.8 (8) (43) (55) 737 37.6 1,866
Keppel Land 40 14.6 5.7 30.1 41.4 47.8 3 (27) (34) 721 42.3 3,248
SC Global 193 21.8 4.5 35.0 50.0 50.0 (13) (42) (42) 396 43.5 744
UOL cash 5.7 3.6 52.8 53.8 50.9 6 (23) (21) 796 77.1 1,954
Wheelock Props cash 14.4 10.8 33.2 40.0 40.0 11 (4) (32) 1,197 24.6 615
Wing Tai 39 8.3 4.1 35.1 26.4 42.9 (3) (30) (36) 793 60.7 3,187
Landlords
Singapore Land 14 3.4 2.4 60.2 58.2 48.2 11 (23) (33) 412 21.6 454
UIC 23 5.1 2.4 45.2 52.5 50.5 0 (10) (10) 1,377 28.6 736
Others
Amara Hldgs 104 8.3 3.1 55.5 62.2 65.1 5 (28) (26) 577 34.9 306
Banyan Tree Hldgs 35 7.2 2.9 80.1 80.0 80.0 6 (32) (44) 761 53.5 1,027
Hotel Grand Central cash 6.2 4.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 11 (6) (1) 466 41.1 63
Hotel Properties 48 7.3 3.3 31.5 35.0 36.0 (13) (32) (47) 504 39.3 279
ARA Asset Mgmt cash 34.8 24.9 64.2 57.7 57.2 10 (42) (35) 582 37.9 4,047
Page 14
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
SINGAPORE
Distribution By Asset Type Distribution by Geography
Hotel
Industrial SEA
10%
27% 4%
Others ANZ
6% 2%
Singapore
77%
HK/China/Japan
15%
Office
Retail Others
28%
29% 2%
8%
8%
7%
6%
6%
4%
5%
2%
4%
0% 3%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
S-reit Yield Spread
Office Retail
8%
1.6
7%
1.2
6%
0.8
5%
4% 0.4
3% 0.0
S-02 M-03 S-03 M-04 S-04 M-05 S-05 M-06 S-06 M-07 S-07 M-08 S-02 M-03 S-03 M-04 S-04 M-05 S-05 M-06 S-06 M-07 S-07 M-08
Page 15
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
Yeild P/Bv
SUN SUN
KREIT KREIT
CCT CCT
ALLC
ALLC
MMP
MMP
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Yield
P/Bv
FRT FRT
MMP MMP
CT CT
FCT FCT
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
Yield P/Bv
Hospitality S-REIT Yield and P/BV Hospitality S-REIT Yield and P/BV
ART ART
CDREIT CDREIT
5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Yield P/ Bv
Page 16
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Funding Monitor
Ave
1Q08
RE Total Gross Gearing Targeted Corporate Cost
Int Debt Maturity Profile (S$b)
Assets Debt Gearing+ limit gearing Rating of
Cover
debt
(S$b) (S$b) (%) (X) 2008 2009 2010 2011 =>2012
Office
Allco 1.88 0.88 47.0% 60% 45% Ba2 4.0 4.1 0.07 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.27
CCT 5.19 1.46 28.2% 60% 45% A3 3.9 3.3 0.11 0.58 0.15 0.62 0.00
K-REIT* 1.98 0.58 29.3% 60% 45% Baa3 3.9 2.3 0.39 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub total 9.05 2.92 32.3% 0.57 1.32 0.15 0.62 0.27
Retail/Mixed
CMT 5.88 2.04 34.8% 60% 45% A2 3.5 5.3 0.19 0.66 0.13 0.35 0.78
FCT 1.04 0.31 29.5% 60% 45% A3 3.8 4.0 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00
Lippo
Mapletree 1.15 0.12 10.2% 35% 35% nil na na 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12
MM Prime 2.22 0.66 29.9% 60% 45% Baa1 2.7 4.9 0.22 0.02 0.38 0.00 0.05
Suntec 5.72 1.88 32.9% 60% 45% Baa1 3.1 1.9 0.50 0.70 0.00 0.25 0.45
Sub-total 16.01 5.01 31.3% 0.96 1.38 0.51 0.86 1.40
Industrial
A-REIT 4.17 1.56 37.4% 60% 45% A3 3.4 5.3 0.00 0.04 0.30 0.28 0.95
Ascendas
India 1.00 0.04 4.0% 60% 45% - 3.1 na 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cambridge 0.96 0.36 37.4% 60% 45% BBB- 3.5 4.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36
MLT 2.42 1.40 57.9% 60% 45% Baa2 3.3 3.2 0.33 0.20 0.11 0.11 0.65
MI Reit 0.46 0.13 27.6% 60% 45% Baa3 2.4 7.0 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total 9.01 3.49 38.7% 0.33 0.41 0.41 0.39 1.96
Hospitality
ART 1.56 0.54 34.6% 60% 45% Baa2 3.0 3.6 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.35 0.00
CDL HT 1.63 0.31 18.8% 60% 45% BBB- 2.4 10.6 0.03 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total 3.19 0.84 26.3% 0.21 0.30 0.00 0.35 0.00
Healthcare
Parkway Life 0.33 0.05 15.6% 60% 45% BBB+ 3.9 13.0 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
First 0.83 0.03 4.0% 35% 35% BBB+ 3.0 13.0 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saizen 0.69 nil 0.0% 35% 35% - 3.2 - 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub total 1.85 0.08 4.3% 0.01 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00
Page 17
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Acquisition Monitor
(S$m) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Office
Allco - - - - 880 750 - -
CCT - - 1918 147 1317 -21 1347* -
K-REIT - - - - 631 939 - -
Retail/Mixed
CMT 916 300 753 1648 878 710 - -
FCT - - - - 915 48 150** 103**
Lippo Mapletree - - - - - 1004 146 -
MM Prime - - - 1304 - 253 - -
Suntec - - 2150 355 - 24 1002 -
Industrial
A-REIT 585 340 856 615 301 303 400*** 400***
Ascendas India - - - - - 889 218+ 112+
Cambridge - - - - 533 361 50++ -
MLT - - - 898 695 842 228+++ 700+++
MI REIT - - - - - 488 18 -
Hospitality
ART - - - 911 268 187 36 -
CDL HT - - - 846 340 - - -
*CCT’s acquisitions include Wilkie Edge pre-completed development (S$182m) and $1165m One George St
** Assumes Northpoint 2 and Yew Tee Mall to be acquired in 2008 and 2009 by FCT
***Assumes $400m of new acquisitions pa for A-REIT
+ New buys factored into forecast for Ascendas India
++ Announced $50m of new and completed buys to date by Cambridge
+++ Announced $228m of new and completed buys to date and assumes $700m of new buys in FY09 by MLT
Page 18
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Retail/Mixed
CMT Jun 03 128.1 119.8m new units @ $1.07
Dec 03 59.9 45m new units @ $1.33
Jul 04 238.4 147m new units @ $1.62
Oct 05 407.5 173.4m new units @ $2.35
Aug 06 401.0 174.35m new units @ $2.30
Oct 07 352.1 97m new units @ $3.63
Suntec Oct 06 180.0 Placement of 120m new units @ $1.50
Feb 08 250.0 Issue $250m CBs with conversion price of $1.968
Apr 08 20.0 Exercised option for $20m CBs with conversion price of $1.968
Industrial
A-REIT Feb 04 186.2 160.5m new units @ $1.16
Jun 04 115.0 82.14m new units @ $1.40
Nov 04 400.0 258.07m new units @ $1.55
Feb 05 205.0 109.9m new units @ $1.865
Oct 05 240.0 112.68m new units @ $2.13
Feb 07 100.0 40.323m new units @ $2.48
Cambridge Oct 07 166.2 276.97m new units @ $0.60
MLT Nov 05 49.3 48.33m new units @ $1.02
Jan 06 130.0 135.94m new units @ average $0.956
Jan 07 349.0 296.82m new units @ average $1.176
Hospitality
ART Sep 06 48.4 44m new units @ $1.10
May 07 199.0 105.33m new units @ average $0.956
CDL HT Jul 07 303.1 120.16m new units @ average $2.52
Page 19
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
5 16%
200 14%
4
12%
150 3
10%
2
8%
100 1
6%
0 4%
50
-1 2%
0 -2 0%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 1Q08 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08f 09f
Price Index Rental Index Annual Supply (msf ) Annual Demand (msf ) Vacancy rate (RHS)
150 50000
8%
40000
100
30000 6%
20000
50
4%
10000
0 0 2%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 1Q08 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08f 09f
Price Index Rental Index Annual Supply (msf) Annual Demand (msf) Vacancy rate (RHS)
9%
200 3.0
8%
2.0
150
7%
1.0
100
6%
0.0
50 5%
-1.0 4%
0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08f 09f
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08f
Annual Supply (msf ) Annual Demand (msf ) Vacancy rate (RHS)
Price Index Rental Index
14 13%
110
12%
12
11%
100
10 10%
90 8 9%
6 8%
80
7%
4
6%
70
2 5%
60 0 4%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08f 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Price Index Rental Index Annual Supply (msf ) Annual Demand (msf ) Vacancy rate (RHS)
Page 20
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
HONG KONG
REITS PERFORMANCE TRACKER Valuations
The HK–REIT market is valued at close to HK$68b in terms The HK-REIT sector average yield is estimated at 5.0%
of market cap, giving it a 1.6% of the global and 10.5% of presently while the band ranges from 7-8% for office REITs
the Far East REIT market share. In terms of asset size, about and below 4.5-5% for retail REITs. Yield spreads are at
HK$107.3b worth of assets are held under REIT structures, historical highs of 2.7% owing to lower interest rates. The
of which 91% are made up of office (38%), retail (38%) high office REIT yields are driven by financial engineering
and hotel (15%) properties. No new REITs were listed in the activities. Retail REIT yields average 4.7%, largely impacted
first 4 months of the year. by Link REIT, which had enjoyed a good run up in stock
prices. The sole hotel REIT, Regal is trading at about 10%.
Share price performance
Since the start of the year, Hong Kong REITs have staged a Key issues
better showing than property stocks. The Link REIT showed Looking ahead, there appears not to be any major near term
a gain of 12% in share price YTD amidst a shaky market, catalyst for the HK-REIT sector but we expect this sector to
thanks to its resilient income stream as well as benefiting remain in favour as it is defensive in a volatile market.
from successive interest rate cuts. Prosperity REIT and RREEF
China Commercial Trust also held up firmly. However, the The fund raising exercise by Champion REIT for its
proposed acquisition of Langham Place Mall and Office HK$12.5bn purchase of Langham Place, the largest
Towers, which was approved by unitholders, failed to boost transaction by a REIT post listing, is likely to be closely
the share price of Champion REIT. watched by the market as an indication of the market’s risk
appetite.
On the other hand, Hong Kong property stocks have been
under pressure until the recent strong rally, partly because HK-REITs were a beneficiary of the declining interest rate
of increased uncertainties for the residential market, led by a trend over the past 9 months, particularly Link REIT, which
slowdown in global economic growth. Hang Seng Property has a sizeable proportion of its debt at floating rates.
Index had once dipped 35% to its low of 24,831 in mid- However, with interest rates at already low levels, additional
March, but regained its lost ground and ended 32,341, a benefits from further rate downside are likely to be more
15% drop y-t-d, against 9.9% decline in the broader muted going forward.
market. Property stocks have seen their prices approaching
or even surpassing our price targets.
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Page 21
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
DPU /
EPS* Book Price/
Share Target
Price Price Recmd DPU / EPS * (HK$) CAGR (%) Yield (%) / PE (x)* NAV PS BV
Hong Kong FYE (HK$) (HK$) 07 08 09 07-09 07 08 09 (HK$) (x)
REITs
Champion REIT Dec 3.97 5.19 Buy 0.34 0.34 0.32 -3 8.6 8.6 8.0 7.3 0.5
Fortune REIT Dec 4.98 6.83 BUY 0.35 0.36 0.36 1 7.1 7.2 7.3 9.4 0.5
Prosperity REIT Dec 1.59 1.80 Buy 0.13 0.13 0.12 -3 8.2 8.4 7.6 2.5 0.6
GZI REIT+ Dec 2.94 n.a. NR 0.23 0.21 0.21 -4 7.7 7.0 7.1 3.5 0.8
Link REIT+ Mar 18.98 n.a. NR 0.67 0.74 0.83 11 3.6 3.9 4.4 13.6 1.4
Regal REIT+ Dec 1.94 n.a. NR 0.15 0.20 0.20 14 7.5 10.3 10.3 3.5 0.6
RREEF China REIT+ Dec 3.65 n.a. NR 0.18 0.40 0.32 34 9.2 10.8 8.8 5.7 0.6
Sunlight REIT+ Jun 2.21 n.a. NR 0.14 0.24 0.25 36 11.6 10.7 11.3 3.2 0.7
Property Developers
Cheung Kong** Dec 123.20 131.2 Buy 11.95 4.97 7.67 -20 10.3 24.8 16.1 98.1 1.3
Hang Lung Properties Jun 31.00 32 Buy 0.51 1.21 1.57 75 60.5 25.6 19.7 14.4 2.1
Henderson Land Jun 60.35 66.5 Buy 3.10 3.27 2.77 -5 19.4 18.4 21.8 53.5 1.1
Kerry Properties Dec 56.15 55.4 Buy 1.95 2.35 2.38 11 28.8 23.9 23.5 30.9 1.8
New World Dev** Jun 21.05 22.4 Buy 1.17 1.98 1.34 7 17.9 10.6 15.7 18.0 1.2
SHK Properties Jun 138.00 165.2 Buy 4.61 4.70 5.57 10 29.9 29.3 24.8 80.5 1.7
Sino Land Jun 21.20 21.5 Buy 0.87 0.67 1.24 20 24.4 31.8 17.1 11.5 1.8
Tai Cheung ** Mar 4.63 6.18 Buy 0.44 0.46 0.97 48 10.5 10.1 4.8 5.6 0.8
Property Investors
Great Eagle Dec 24.70 32 Buy 1.49 1.67 2.13 20 16.6 14.8 11.6 41.5 0.6
Hongkong Land (US$) Dec 4.82 5.21 Buy 0.15 0.20 0.29 39 32.1 24.5 16.5 5.2 0.9
Hysan Development Dec 23.35 24.05 Buy 1.10 0.95 1.03 -3 21.2 24.6 22.7 30.5 0.8
Wharf Holdings Dec 41.95 43.5 Buy 2.43 1.92 1.99 -9 17.3 21.8 21.0 35.3 1.2
Swire Pacific Dec 96.10 98.3 Hold 6.76 6.16 6.39 -3 14.2 15.6 15.0 89.4 1.1
Page 22
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
No of Avg
Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) NPI / Gross Margins * (%) Price Performance (%) Units / Free Float Liquidity
Shares*
Hong Kong 08 08 08 07 08 09 3M 6M 12M (m) (%) (‘000)
REITs
Champion REIT 25 2.7 1.3 81.1 83.9 84.2 (7) (8) (12) 2,814 51.3 2,971
Fortune REIT 23 3.5 2.6 73.2 73.8 72.1 (5) (15) (14) 814 32.6 605
Prosperity REIT 34 2.7 1.6 78.8 79.4 79.7 (2) (1) (5) 1,276 78.4 3,242
GZI REIT NA NA NA 67.5 NA NA (1) (5) (4) 1,000 60.8 1,472
Link REIT NA NA NA 59.7 NA NA (1) 10 7 2,159 100.0 11,273
Regal REIT NA NA NA 98.9 NA NA (7) (20) (27) 3,116 27.4 2,946
RREEF China REIT NA NA NA 90.8 NA NA 5 (6) NA 484 74.9 1,114
Sunlight REIT NA NA NA 74.1 NA NA (7) (8) 1 1,503 69.9 3,162
Property Developers
Cheung Kong 15 5.0 4.1 78.0 43.4 48.0 3 (15) 13 2,316 59.9 8,854
Hang Lung Properties Cash 8.6 6.8 56.3 62.6 66.0 10 (12) 25 4,145 48.0 10,417
Henderson Land 12 6.5 4.8 38.2 33.9 38.4 (1) (16) 9 2,147 46.6 7,033
Kerry Properties 24 7.3 4.4 26.6 30.5 23.8 8 (21) 32 1,425 46.8 3,263
New World Dev 26 11.6 5.0 8.3 21.4 23.4 2 (25) 5 3,736 63.0 14,697
SHK Properties 15 6.0 4.4 40.9 43.9 47.4 (1) (7) 43 2,564 57.5 12,111
Sino Land 30 6.3 4.0 49.2 42.2 37.0 1 (18) 18 4,857 47.0 14,367
Tai Cheung cash 8.0 7.3 46.0 52.9 61.8 (18) (33) (19) 618 53.0 575
Property investors
Great Eagle 21 4.0 2.6 39.5 38.1 53.0 (1) (25) (17) 605 48.4 1,488
Hongkong Land (US$) 21 3.7 2.4 47.2 48.8 50.6 13 (2) 3 2,295 52.1 5,291
Hysan Development 8 3.0 2.3 81.8 80.9 80.9 9 5 10 1,038 58.9 3,307
Wharf Holdings 27 5.6 3.4 65.4 55.3 54.6 3 (3) 35 2,754 50.0 7,335
Swire Pacific 17 6.6 4.7 36.6 31.1 31.7 (2) (9) 7 916 85.3 4,728
Page 23
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
HONG KONG
Distribution By Asset Type Distribution by Geography
Hotel
15%
Industrial
Retail 2%
HK
38%
92%
China
Others
8%
7%
Office
38%
Page 24
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Sunlight Sunlight
Prosperit y
Prospi erty
Champion
Champion
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
P/BV
Yield
Sunlight Sunlight
Link Link
GZI
GZI
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Yield 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
P/BV
P/BV (x)
Yield (% )
Regal
Page 25
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Funding Monitor
Companies RE Total Gross Gearing Targeted Corporate Ave FY07 Debt Maturity Profile (HK$b)
Assets Debt Gearing limit gearing Rating Cost Int
+ of Cover
debt
(HK$b) (HK$b) (%) (%) (%) (%) (X) 2008 2009 2010 2011 =>2012
Office
Champion 28.3 7.8 27.5 45.0 na na 0.5 36.2 7.8
Prosperity 5.2 1.8 34.1 45.0 na na 0.8 11.6 1.8
RREEF CCT 3.8 1.4 35.6 45.0 na na 6.2 2.6 1.4
Retail/Mixed
Fortune 9.72 2.4 24.1 60.0 45.0 A+ 4.6 4.2 2.4
GZI 4.7 1.3 27.3 45.0 na na 4.1 6.0 1.3
Link 42.4 12.2 28.8 45.0 na A3 3.9 4.6 2.2 5.4 - 4.6 -
Sunlight 9.9 4.0 39.6 45.0 na na 2.5 2.6 4.0
Hospitality
Regal 16.1 4.3 27.0 45.0 na na 2.8 4.2 4.3
Acquisition Monitor
(HK$m) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Office
Champion - - - - 22670 1107 * -
Prosperity - - 4538 - 28 - -
RREEF CCT - - - - - 3978 - -
Retail/Mixed
GZI - - - 4005 - - **
Link - - - 33802 - - - -
Sunlight - - - - 9090 - - -
- - -
Hospitality - - -
Regal - - - - - 14900 - -
* On 14 Feb 2008, Champion announced the acquisition of Langham Place for a consideration of HK12.5b, at a discount to appraised value of
HK$14.5b, to be paid via consideration units, placement units, CBs and bank loans.
** In Jan 08, GZI announced the acquisition of 72.3% of Yue Xiu Neo Metropolis Plaza for HK$677.3m of which HK$203m to be paid via issue of
new units @ HK$3.0 apiece and the remaining from proceeds from its proposed CB issue.
Page 26
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006F
2007F
2008F
2009F
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
C o m p le tio n ( m sf) T a k e - u p ( m sf )
O ffic e C a p ita l In d e x O ffic e R e n ta l In d e x V aca n cy (% )
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008E
Jan 94
Jan 95
Jan 96
Jan 97
Jan 98
Jan 99
Jan 00
Jan 01
Jan 02
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006F
2007F
2008F
2009F
H ig h S tre e t S h o p s
C o m p le tio n ( m sf) ) T a k e - u p ( m sf )
P rim e A re a R e ta il C e n tre s
D e c e n t r a lise d R e t a il C e n t r e V a ca n cy (% )
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Page 27
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
THAILAND
REITS PERFORMANCE TRACKER Key issues
The Thai REIT market is made up of close-ended property The property sector including T-REITs should continue to
funds, which are publicly listed on the SET. There are currently outperform over the next 6 months. We maintain our
18 listed property funds for public offering (PFPOs) with a Overweight rating on Thai properties in view of strong FY08
market cap of Bt54b or equivalent to a 0.3% and 2.1% of the earnings growth of 38% (vs 13% for the SET). This strong
global and Far East REIT markets respectively. Within the Thai growth (although will not be seen in 1Q08 as buyers delayed
PFPO sphere, retail PFs have a slightly larger share of 26% their title transfer awaiting the tax-cut package to take effect
owing to the dominance of CPN Retail Growth Fund. The on 29 Mar 2008) should be supported by (i) rebounding
commercial, residential and airport PFs are fairly distributed at consumer confidence, and (ii) tax savings from the tax-cut
17-19% each. There were two close-ended funds listed since stimulus measure. Property-related taxes for property
beginning of this year, namely Property Perfect Fund (PFFUND), transactions were cut for 1 year from 29 Mar 2008. Currently,
a residential property fund and Quality Hospitality Leasehold property developers pay 3.3% specific business tax on real
Property Fund (QHOP), a hotel-related fund. estate sales, while the 2% transfer fee is normally shared
equally between the home buyers and developers. The
Thailand Market Summary proposed tax cuts will reduce the corresponding taxes to a
The Thai market has outperformed regional peers YTD, with total of only 0.11% vs 4.3% (developers share) previously.
the SET Index easing 1.1% vs -8.0% return for the region. The Homebuyers will also see their share of transfer fees drop from
SET Property Index rose 6.5% y-o-y due to strong showing by 1.0% to 0.005% and mortgage registration fees drop from
property companies, REITs, and contractors, thanks to the 1.0% to 0.01%.
rebounding consumer and business confidence and positive
government policy changes. Key index movers were Preuksa Property Tax Cuts
RE, Quality Houses, Property Perfect, Land & Houses and Lalin Tax Previous New
Property, which rose 16-44%. From 29/3/08-28/03/09
Specific business tax 3.3% 0.10%
The Thai REIT sector also out-performed the SET Index with Transfer fees 2.0% 0.01%
average 5.7% return YTD, thanks to the Bank of Thailand’s Mortgage registration fees 1.0% 0.01%
decision to lift the unremunerated reserve requirement (URR) Source: DBS Vickers
110
110
105
105
100 100
95
95
90 90
85 85
80 80
January-08 February-08 March-08 April-08 May-08 January-08 February-08 March-08 April-08 May-08
SET Property
Reits SET
Page 28
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
DPU / EPS* Book Price/
Share Target NAV
Price Price Recmd DPU / EPS * (Bt) CAGR (%) Yield (%) / PE (x)* PS BV
Thailand FYE (Bt) (Bt) 07 08 09 07-09 07 08 09 (Bt) (Bt)
REITs
CPN Retail Growth Property
Fund Dec 10.50 12.00 Buy 0.82 0.84 0.86 2 7.8 8.0 8.2 10.3 1.0
Samui Airport Property Fund Dec 9.05 11.83 Buy 0.92 0.90 0.94 1 10.2 9.9 10.4 11.4 0.8
Developers
Industrial
Amata Corporation Dec 17.60 21.26 Buy 0.99 1.42 1.45 21 17.8 12.4 12.2 4.1 4.3
Hemaraj Land Dec 1.24 1.68 Buy 0.12 0.13 0.10 -9 10.0 9.6 12.1 0.8 1.6
Rojana Industrial Park Dec 15.60 20.39 Buy 1.21 1.24 1.46 10 12.9 12.6 10.7 5.9 2.6
Residential
Asian Property Dec 7.40 8.71 Buy 0.39 0.54 0.60 25 19.2 13.6 12.3 2.4 3.1
Lalin Property Dec 3.80 4.32 Buy 0.15 0.39 0.43 71 26.1 9.7 8.9 4.0 0.9
Land & Houses Dec 9.00 9.9 Hold 0.36 0.42 0.45 11 24.7 21.4 20.1 2.9 3.1
LPN Development Dec 7.60 8.3 Buy 0.63 0.83 0.80 13 12.1 9.2 9.4 2.6 2.9
M.K. Real Estate Dec 2.28 2.94 Buy 0.38 0.49 0.49 13 6.0 4.7 4.6 5.4 0.4
Noble Development Dec 4.06 5.06 Buy 0.54 0.72 0.72 16 7.5 5.6 5.6 7.1 0.6
Property Perfect Dec 4.96 6.85 Buy 0.52 0.93 0.92 33 9.5 5.3 5.4 7.7 0.6
Prinsiri Dec 2.64 3.76 Buy 0.08 0.34 0.55 165 34.0 7.8 4.8 2.2 1.2
Preuksa Real Estate Dec 12.10 14.21 Buy 0.58 0.95 1.07 36 20.8 12.8 11.3 3.8 3.2
Quality Houses Dec 2.68 3.00 Buy 0.15 0.19 0.21 19 18.4 13.9 13.0 1.2 2.2
SC Asset Corp Dec 13.20 14.76 Sell 1.97 1.90 1.78 -5 6.7 7.0 7.4 16.0 0.8
Sansiri Dec 3.82 4.31 Buy 0.48 0.66 0.76 26 8.0 5.8 5.0 5.7 0.7
Supalai Dec 3.74 5.21 Buy 0.53 0.74 0.83 25 7.0 5.0 4.5 3.0 1.3
Landlord
Central Pattana Dec 27.50 32.66 Buy 0.82 0.82 0.90 5 33.6 33.5 30.5 6.0 4.6
Page 29
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
No of Avg
Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) NPI / Gross Margins * (%) Price Performance (%_ Units/ Free Float Liquidity
Shares*
Thailand 08 08 08 07 08 09 3M 6M 12M (m) (%) (‘000)
REITs
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund Cash 8.3 8.0 88.4 91.1 91.1 9 9 5 1,092 59.3 858
Samui Airport Property Fund Cash 7.3 7.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5 12 (9) 950 59.8 1,244
Developers
Industrial
Amata Corporation 43 27.1 15.1 49.1 49.1 49.2 9 7 42 1,067 33.1 1,665
Hemaraj Land 74 16.8 8.4 41.6 40.6 40.3 3 (14) 25 9,376 78.0 11,655
Rojana Industrial Park 181 17.4 5.9 27.9 31.2 30.3 (1) (9) 31 833 40.1 612
Residential
Asian Property 71 19.6 10.8 32.6 31.9 32.1 25 9 64 2,331 64.2 9,207
Lalin Property 26 9.3 7.3 39.2 39.5 39.5 28 3 (14) 825 26.4 455
Land & Houses 33 14.6 7.4 30.5 30.0 30.0 18 22 26 9,920 57.0 24,192
LPN Development 28 29.7 16.2 34.7 30.0 30.6 21 (7) 22 1,476 45.9 9,680
M.K. Real Estate 23 8.8 6.0 37.5 36.5 36.5 1 (7) (7) 867 63.0 819
Noble Development 89 10.0 4.8 37.1 35.6 35.6 3 (12) (19) 456 58.4 311
Property Perfect 71 12.2 6.2 29.9 29.5 29.5 38 19 51 788 48.3 2,221
Prinsiri 54 15.0 6.9 23.0 25.7 30.2 (10) (14) (6) 1,005 29.7 639
Preuksa Real Estate 14 21.2 15.2 34.9 35.0 33.0 52 51 118 2,186 21.8 2,436
Quality Houses 97 15.9 6.6 28.9 30.6 30.5 23 47 109 7,673 40.6 38,825
SC Asset Corp 30 11.4 6.9 36.9 36.2 36.1 9 41 55 321 37.1 6,249
Sansiri 91 11.3 4.4 30.3 28.5 30.4 8 10 29 1,474 65.6 4,719
Supalai 75 24.6 13.4 40.2 37.5 38.3 8 (1) 8 1,635 74.4 5,749
Landlord
Central Pattana 108 13.2 4.5 41.8 42.1 42.2 13 4 7 2,179 35.5 1,973
Page 30
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
THAILAND
Distribution By Asset Type and Value Distribution by Geography
Industrial Thailand
10%
Commercial
Residential
18%
19%
Lifestyle
4%
Retail
26% Airport
17%
Svc Apt
6%
9%
8%
8%
6%
7%
4%
6%
2%
5%
0% 4%
-2% 3%
D-03 J-04 D-04 J-05 D-05 J-06 D-06 J-07 D-07 D-03 J-04 D-04 J-05 D-05 J-06 D-06 J-07 D-07
Residential and Serviced Apartment T-REIT Yield Industrial, Airport and Lifestyle T-REIT Yield
Trend
8%
11.0%
7%
10.0%
6%
9.0%
5% 8.0%
4% 7.0%
Page 31
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
M IPF
M IPF
JCP
JCP
BKKCP
BKKCP
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
P/ BV
Yield
TFUND TFUND
TIF1 TIF1
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Yield P/ BV
MNIT M NIT
SIRIPF SIRIPF
Yield P/ BV
URBNPF URBNPF
UOBAPF UOBAPF
GOLDPF GOLDPF
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Yield P/ BV
M JLF MJLF
SPF
SPF
Page 32
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Acquisition Monitor
(Btm) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Airport
SPF - - - - 9301.4 - - -
Svc Apt
GoldPF - - - - - 2074.7 - -
UOBAPF - 818 - - - - - -
URBNPF - - - - - 711 - -
Retail
FuturePF - - - - 4778.8 - - -
CPNRF - - - 10613 - - - -
Residential
SiriPF - - - 850 - - - -
MNIT - - - 700 67 - - -
Industrial
TIF1 491.3 - 395 - -
Tfund 1730 2050 1970.25
Commercial
BKKCP - 956 - - - - - -
JCP - - - - 610.1 - - -
MIPF - - 1880 - - - - -
QHPF - - - - 7214.3 - - -
Miscellanous
MJLF (Entertainment) - - - - - 2301 - -
TUPF (dormitory) - - - - 829.6 - - -
QHOP (Hotel) - - - - - - 1849.6 -
Page 33
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
80000 30%
600 0.5
70000
500 25%
60000 0.4
400 20%
50000
0.3
300 40000 15%
0.2
30000 10%
200
20000 0.1 5%
100
10000
0 0%
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F
J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08
Annual Supply (msm) Annual Demand (msm) Vacancy rate (RHS)
Gross Rents (THB/sm/mth) Capital Values (THB/sm)
1900 145
14%
140
1800 0.3 12%
135
1700 130 10%
1500 120 6%
115
1400 0.1 4%
110
1300 105 2%
Cumulative Supply of Serviced Industrial Land Plots (rai) Cumulative Supply of Purpose Built Factories
R ai
100,000 6% 700 35%
Cu m ulativ e Sto ck
Cu m u lativ e Sto ck % y -o-y ( R HS)
95,000 5% 600 30%
% y -o -y ( R HS)
90,000 4% 500 25%
100 5%
70,000 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0 0%
2004 2005 2006 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07
Economy
Luxury
2009
2009
2009
2009
2007
2007
2007
2007
150000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Bangkok Phuket
6000 30%
5000 25%
4000 20%
3000 15%
2000 10%
1000 5%
0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Vacancy rate (RHS)
Page 34
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
MALAYSIA
REITS PERFORMANCE TRACKER
The M-REIT market has grown from the initial listing of Axis Valuations
REIT in Aug 2005 to 11 REITs with a total market cap of The M-REIT sector is trading at about 7-7.5% FY08 yield
RM4.6b, accounting for 0.3% of the global and close to 2% while yield spreads have widened to about 320-360bps over
of the Far East segment. In terms of asset types, there is a the 10yr MGS rate, thanks to both DPU growth as well as a
diverse range from office to plantations. Office and retail lowering in the long term rates. Plantation REIT, Al-Hadhrah
assets account for 69% of asset value while industrial, Boustead REIT put on a strong showing, with REIT yields
healthcare and plantation players account for the remaining narrowing from 11% to 8% while office and industrial REITs
31%. There has been no new REIT listing YTD 2008. are yielding 5-6%.
80 80
75 75
70 70
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
KLCI Reits Reits Property
Page 35
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
DPU / EPS* Book Price/
Share Target NAV
Price Price Recmd DPU / EPS *(sen) CAGR (%) Yield (%) / PE (x)* PS BV
Malaysia FYE (RM) (RM) 07 08 09 07-09 07 08 09 (sen) (x)
REITs
Axis REIT Dec 1.77 2.60 Buy 11.0 13.5 13.8 12 6.2 7.5 7.7 148 1.2
Property Developers
SP Setia Oct 4.16 5.10 Buy 25.8 26.9 31.6 11 16.1 15.5 13.1 198 2.1
KLCC Property Mar 3.04 4.40 Buy 21.7 24.8 26.5 10 NM 12.3 11.5 450 0.7
Sunway City Jun 2.78 5.50 Buy 31.3 35.8 48.0 24 8.9 7.8 5.8 370 0.8
Eastern & Oriental Bhd Mar 1.70 3.80 Buy 17.0 14.9 18.7 5 10.0 11.4 9.1 134 1.3
Sunrise Berhad Jun 2.48 4.00 Buy 25.3 26.5 44.6 33 9.8 9.4 5.6 163 1.5
YTL Land Jun 1.22 2.70 Buy 4.6 8.7 25.2 134 26.6 14.0 4.8 159 0.8
Page 36
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
VALUATIONS
No of
Gearing (%) ROE(%) ROA (%) NPI / Gross Margins *(%) Price Performance (%) Units / Free Float Avg
Shares* Liquidity
Malaysia 08 08 08 07 08 09 3M 6M 12M (m) (%) (‘000)
REITs
Axis REIT 2 9.5 8.6 82.6 78.4 78.4 (2) (7) (12) 256 40.0 128
Property Developers
SP Setia 12 14.1 9.1 32.7 32.6 30.3 (20) (16) (28) 1,017 82.4 3,493
KLCC Property 25 5.3 2.4 87.0 88.8 89.0 (12) (17) (22) 934 68.3 1,171
Sunway City 33 11.8 3.5 53.5 51.8 53.2 (26) (49) (38) 470 40.0 504
Eastern & Oriental Bhd 46 30.3 6.4 20.6 46.0 47.8 (32) (31) (45) 419 75.0 221
Sunrise Berhad 13 23.7 11.9 36.3 30.2 38.6 (10) (24) (35) 450 63.5 1,046
YTL Land 9 5.6 3.2 20.1 35.1 32.1 (6) (19) (10) 796 38.9 331
Page 37
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
MALAYSIA
Distribution By Asset Type and Value Distribution by Geography
Healthcare Malaysia
11%
Commercial Industrial
38% 12%
Plantation
8%
Retail
31%
6.0% 8%
5.0%
4.0% 6%
3.0%
2.0% 4%
1.0%
0.0%
2%
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
M-reit Yield Spread Retail Office
Industrial M-REIT Yield Trend Healthcare and Plantation M-REIT Yield Trend
8.0%
13%
7.5% 12%
11%
7.0%
10%
6.5% 9%
8%
6.0% 7%
6%
5.5%
5%
5.0% 4%
2007 2008
2006 2007 2008
Healthcare Plantation
0.0
2006 2007 2008
M-reit Developer Landlord
Page 38
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
AARET AARET
UOAR UOAR
TRET TRET
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Yield
P/ BV
ATRM ATRM
AXRB AXRB
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Yield P/BV
STRH STRH
HEKT
HEKT
Healthcare and Plantation M-REIT Yield Healthcare and Plantation M-REIT P/BV
(x)
BIRT BIRT
AQAR
AQAR
Page 39
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Funding Monitor
Ave
FY07
RE Total Gross Gearing Targeted Corporate Cost
Companies Int Debt Maturity Profile (RMb)
Assets Debt Gearing+ limit gearing Rating of
Cover
debt
(RMb) (RMb) (%) (%) (%) (%) (X) 2008 2009 2010 2011 =>2012
Al Aqar* 481.0 133.3 27.7 50 na na na 20.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 138.3
Axis 570.4 209.8 36.8 50 40.0# na 6.0 4.2 209.8 - - - -
AlHadharah 50 na na
477.3 0.0 0.0 nil nil - - - - -
Boustead
Hektar 559.4 184.0 32.9 50 na na 10.7 - - - 184.0 -
Starhill 1275.0 180.0 14.1 50 na na 4.8 9.4 - - 180.0 - -
50 na na 4.19-
550.0 135.5 24.6 35.3 30.0 105.5 - - -
4.32
50 na na 3.9-
UOA 425.3 64.3 15.1 2.4 64.3 - - - -
4.35
50 na na 4.5-
AmanahRaya 645.5 253.0 39.2 10.5 - - - 253.0 -
5.25
4.04-
Atrium 154.8 43.7 29.2 50 na na 7.0 - - - - 43.7
4.28
* Al Aqar has secured a syndicated Bai’ Bithamin Ajil financing facility arrangement that enables them to pay in 59 equal monthly installments plus
RM134.6m beginning July 2006. Total assets have not included acquisition of 5 hospitals valued at RM170m in Mar 08
+ Actual as last reported by company
# Estimate
Acquisition Monitor
(RMm) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Commercial
Tower - - - - 390.0 - - -
UOA REIT - - - - 345.5 - - -
Amanah Raya - - - - - 645.5 - -
Retail/Mixed
Hektar - - - - - 515.4 - -
Starhill - - - 1150.0 - - - -
Industrial
Axis - - - 332.0 - 64.0 - -
Atrium 154.8 - -
Page 40
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
4
5 600
3 20%
500 2
4
15%
400 1
3 0
300 10%
-1
2
200
-2 5%
1 100 -3
-4 0%
0 0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual Supply (msf ) Annual Demand (msf ) Vacancy Rate (RHS)
Prime office value (RM psf) Ave rental (prime) RM psf/mth
Ave rental (overall) RM psf /mth
40000
120 30000
20000
110
10000
0
100
-10000
90 -20000
-30000
80 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
2500
50%
160000
2000
40%
140000 1500
1000 30%
120000
500
20%
0
100000
10%
-500
80000 -1000 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
60000 Annual Supply (rooms) Annual Demand (rooms) Vacancy rate (RHS)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1.2
50%
1.0
40%
0.8
0.6 30%
0.4
20%
0.2
10%
0.0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-0.2 0%
Annual Supply (msf ) Annual Demand (msf ) Vacancy rate (RHS)
Page 41
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 42
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Singapore
Page 43
Corporate Profile
Allco Commercial REIT
Bloomberg: ALLC SP | Reuters: ALCR.SI
BUY S$0.825 FSSTI: 3,228.95 Allco is a geographically diversified REIT with exposure to the
office and retail markets in Singapore, Australia and Japan.
Pricce Target : 12 Month S$1.23 Recent negative newsflow on its corporate rating downgrade
to Ba2 and re-financing concerns dragged on stock
Description
Allco REIT (Allco) invests primarily in income producing performance. However, we believe this has largely been
commercial and office assets in Singapore, Australia and factored into share price. The group had extended the
Japan. As at 31st Dec 07, its portfolio consists of 9 assets refinancing of $550m loan to Dec 09 and an ongoing strategic
and a stake in AWPF private property fund, worth a total of review of its Australian assets could unlock cash to further pare
S$1.96bn. down gearing of 46%.
Manager & Strategy We believe a catalyst for a re-rating of the stock could hinge
Allco’s manager is Allco Singapore Pte Ltd, an indirect on outcome of its strategic review as well as clarity on the
wholly owned subsidiary of its sponsor Allco Finance Group restructuring exercise at its parent AFG and API. In the
(AFG). The manager aims to optimize yields for unitholders meantime, AEI at Keypoint and positive rental reversion should
through, I) opportunistic accretive acquisitions, ii) active drive DPU expansion.
asset management and efficient capital management.
Maintain BUY with a target price of S$1.23 based on 20%
discount to its DCF valuation.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
1.8 1.2
Ceiling 4%
1.6
1.0
1.4
1.2 0.8
Mid
1.0 6 5%
ALL 0.6
0.8 C
0.6 0.4
Floor 10%
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0 0.0
Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 M ar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 M ar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 M ar-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(%)
(x) 12
1.8
10
1.6
1.4 8
1.2
1.0 6
0.8
4
0.6
0.4 2
0.2
0
0.0
M ar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 M ar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07
M ar-06 Sep-06 M ar-07 Sep-07 M ar-08
A LLC FSSTI Index FSTRE Real Estate ALLC M AS 10 year Govt Bond
Page 44
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Allco Commercial REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
S$m
120 86% Valuation
85% LH / FH NLA sqf S$'m* S$ / sqf
100
China Square Central LH 2096 368,238 567.5 1,541
84%
80 55 Market Street LH 2825 72,109 148 2,052
83% Key Point LH 2075 311,892 374.4 1,200
60
82% Cosmo Plaza Shoyu-kun 224,470 84.7 377
40
81% Galleria Otemae Shoyu-kun* 108,735 87 800
20
Azabu Aco Shoyu-kun* 15,944 26 1,631
80%
Ebara Techno-Serve Shoyu-kun* 52,050 39.6 761
0 79%
Central Park FH 356,865 411 1,152
06A 07A 08F 09F
Centrelink HQ LH 2,101 215,278 137.9 641
Gross Revenues LHS NPI Margins RHS
AWPF Units - - 75.1 -
1951.2
DPU Performance ( since listing) Portfolio Size (since Listing)
S$ m
S cts 2000
8.0 1800
1600 612
7.0
6.0 1400
121
1200
5.0 141
1000 182
4.0 73
800
140
3.0 0 1219
600
892
2.0 400
663 668
1.0 200
0
0.0
Jun-06 Dec'06 30-Jun-07 31-Dec-07
06A 07A 08F 09F
B ase P o rtfo lio Revaluatio n A cquisitio n
25%
500
20% 400
15% 300
10% 200
5%
100
0%
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2008 2009 2010 > 2011
Gross revenue 35 75 100 102 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 82.4 81.6 82.0 81.8
Property expenses (6) (14) (18) (19) Net Income Margins (%) (28.8) 22.7 31.8 32.6
Net Property Income 29 61 82 83 Dist to revenue (%) 65.0 63.2 47.7 48.3
Other Operating expenses (3) (13) (11) (12) Managers & Trustee’s fees 7.6 16.8 11.5 11.3
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (7) (16) (35) (35) ROAE (%) (1.7) 2.1 3.0 3.2
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 3 15 0 0 ROA (%) (1.1) 1.2 1.6 1.7
Net Income 22 48 35 37 ROCE (%) (1.4) 1.2 3.4 3.5
Tax (32) (31) (4) (4) Int. Cover (x) 3.6 3.1 2.0 2.1
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net Income After Tax (10) 17 32 33 Aggregate Leverage (%) 36.8 48.1 46.5 47.1
Total Return 106 289 32 33 Operating CFPS (S cts) 5.1 7.4 4.4 4.6
Non-tax deductible Items (83) 30 16 16 Free CFPS (S cts) (138.5) (121.2) 4.4 4.6
Net Inc available for Dist. 23 48 47 49
Page 45
Corporate Profile
Ascendas India Trust
Bloomberg: AIT SP I Reuters: AINT.SI
BUY S$1.26 FSSTI: 3,228.95 With its 4 assets located strategically in the IT parks in India, AIT
is well positioned to ride the office real estate market boom in
Price Target: 12 Month S$1.84
India. Its portfolio has an average occupancy of 98% with a
Description strong tenant base consisting of internationally recognized
Ascendas India Trust (ART) invests in high-growth business companies who are looking to outsource their US operations to
space located in India. Its portfolio consists of 4 IT parks, IT hubs in India including GM, IBM and Infineon Technologies.
namely ITPB , ITPC, Cyberpearl and The V with a total SBA Development pipeline is visible and strong, with plans to
of 4.7m. As of 31 March’08, its portfolio has an appraised complete more space at its existing 4 properties. Together these
value of S$1bn.
can add 4.2msf of new space of 89% of existing portfolio when
completed. In terms of acquisition growth, it has the ROFR from
Manager & Strategy
Ascendas Land and Ascendas India Development Trust for
A-iTrust is managed by Ascendas Property Fund Trustee Pte.
Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ascendas Land. The trust another 10.8msf of pipeline.
aims to acquire, own and develop land or uncompleted AIT offers a unique exposure into the fast growing business parks
developments to be used for business space with the leasing business in India. The stock offers FY09 and FY10 yields
objective of holding the properties upon completion. It also of 5.7% and 6.4% 46% upside to our price target of $1.84.
has 2 ROFR with Ascendas India Development Trust and
Ascendas over their properties in India.
Sponsor
Ascendas Land is Asia's leading provider of business space
solutions. They provide AREIT with a pipeline of potential
acquisition opportunities.
1.8 1.4
1.2
Ceiling 4%
1.6
1.0
1.4 0.8
Mid 5% 0.6
1.2
AiT 0.4
1.0 0.2
Floor 6%
0.8 0.0
Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (% )
1 .4 7.0
1 .3 6.0
1 .2 5.0
1 .1
4.0
1 .0
3.0
0 .9
2.0
0 .8
0 .7 1.0
0 .6 0.0
Ju l-0 7 A u g -0 7 Sep -0 7 O ct -0 7 N o v-0 7 D ec-0 7 Jan -0 8 Feb -0 8 M ar-0 8 A p r-0 8 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Ait M AS 10 year bond yield
A iT FSSTI FSTRE
Page 46
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Ascendas India Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
(S$m)
(% ) Operating
180 64
160
Buildings m Proposed Devt
63
140 62
sqft m sqft Remarks
120
61 24 acres/ 2.7m sqft
100
80
60 SBA available for
60
59
ITPB 1.7 0.7 future devt
58
40
57
ITPC 1.3 0.7
20
0 56 The V 0.4 -
07 08
Gross Revenues LHS
09F 10F
Net Property Income Margin RHS
CyberPearl 1.3 -
Total 4.7 1.5
DPU Performance ( since listing) Portfolio (NLA) by Country Tenant sector by base
rental
S cts Others F&B
10.0
5% 1%
9.0
Chennai
8.0 ITES
28%
Hyderabad 19%
7.0
36%
6.0
5.0
4.0
IT/ITES
3.0
10%
IT
2.0 65%
1.0
0.0
Bangalore
07 08 09F 10F
36%
Gross revenue 68 103 124 159 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 58.7 58.9 59.5 63.3
Property expenses (28) (42) (50) (58) Net Income Margins (%) 59.3 2.7 41.0 39.9
Net Property Income 40 61 74 101 Dist to revenue (%) 59.3 44.6 44.7 39.6
Other Operating expenses 1 (10) (9) (11) Managers & Trustee’s fees (1.1) 9.7 7.3 7.1
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (5) (7) 0 (7) ROAE (%) 8.5 0.4 6.3 7.8
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (3) 2 0 0 ROA (%) 4.5 0.3 4.1 4.3
Net Income 47 39 65 82 ROCE (%) 5.9 1.3 5.9 7.0
Tax (5) (31) (12) (16) Int. Cover (x) 8.1 6.8 NM 12.5
Minority Interest (2) (5) (2) (3) Current Ratio (x) 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Net Income After Tax 41 3 51 63 Aggregate Leverage (%) 39.5 19.0 14.6 28.7
Total Return 41 62 51 63 Operating CFPS (S cts) 5.1 (1.5) 8.6 9.2
Non-tax deductible Items 0 (15) 6 8
Net Inc available for Dist. 41 46 55 63
NAV per shr (S cts) 63.1 103.9 103.5 103.9
DPU (S cts) 5.4 6.1 7.3 8.3
Distribution Yield (%) 4.2 4.7 5.7 6.4
Revenue Gth (%) N/A 50.2 20.6 28.4
N Property Inc Gth (%) N/A 50.7 21.7 36.7
Net Inc Gth (%) N/A (93.2) 1,751.7 25.0
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers AIT was listed on 1/8/07
Page 47
Corporate Profile
Ascendas REIT
Bloomberg: AREIT SP | Reuters: AEMN.SI
BUY S$2.68 FSSTI: 3,228.95 AREIT offers attractive yields of 5.8% and a steady income
stream supported by a weighted average length of lease of 5.9
Target Price : 12-Month S$2.86
years. An estimated 47% of its portfolio caters to long-term sale
Description and leaseback properties.
AREIT invests primarily in income producing industrial and Its science and business park properties are also enjoying the
st
business space that are located in Singapore. As at 31 spillover effect of the present shortage of new tight office
March ’08, its portfolio consists of 84 assets with a supply and high office rents in the prime areas.
combined appraised value of S$4.0bn.
Acquisition pipeline growth, although moderated from the peak
Manager & Strategy of $1b pa, is still a commendable $300-400m a year. With a low
AREIT’s manager is Ascendas Funds Management limited, a gearing of 38.3%, it can fund these new buys via debt. Move
100% subsidiary of its sponsor Ascendas. The investment into development activities could raise risks, however, as returns
strategy of AFM is to invest in a diverse portfolio of Business of c8% are better than the 6.5-7% for completed properties,
Park, hi-tech and light industrial properties, distribution and these deals are earnings accretive.
logistics centres and warehouse retail properties in
Singapore. A-REIT is currently trading at FY09 and FY10 yields of 5.8-5.9%.
Maintain Buy with a price target of S$2.86.
Sponsor
Ascendas is Asia's leading provider of business space
solutions. They provide AREIT with a pipeline of potential
acquisition opportunities to be injected to the REIT.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
4.00 Ceiling 4% 2.1
3.50
1.9
3.00 AREIT
2.50 1.7
2.00 M id 6.5%
1.5
1.50
1.00 Floor 10% 1.3
0.50
1.1
0.00
Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 M ay-06 M ar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 0.9
Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
5.0 12
4.5
4.0 10
3.5
3.0 8
2.5
2.0 6
1.5
1.0 4
0.5
0.0 2
Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 A pr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 A pr-08
0
A REIT FSSTI Index FSTRE Real Estate Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Page 48
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Ascendas REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details ( Top ten properties by Valuation)
Valuation Val %
S$m (%)
450 77 NLA sqf S$'m1 S$psf Portfolio
400 77 Telepark (Biz & Sc Park) 260,952 242 927 6%
350 76 The Gemini (Biz & Sc Park) 282,633 102.7 363 3%
300 The Capricon (Biz & Sc Park) 239,485 103.4 432 3%
76
250 Kim Chuan Tele Complex (Hi-
75 Tech) 270,388 116 429 3%
200
75 Techlink (Hi-Tech) 371,898 111.9 301 3%
150 Techplace I (Flatted Factories) 641,274 121.9 190 3%
100 74
50 74 Techplace II (Flatted Factories) 762,335 148.4 195 4%
0 73 C&P Logistics Hub (Logistics) 1,377,506 237 172 6%
SenKee Logistics (Logistics) 305,810 106.6 349 3%
05 06 07 08 09F 10F
TT International Tradepark
Gross Revenues NP I M argin (Logistics) 460,151 106 230 3%
6.0
4.0
Flatted
2.0 Hi-Tech Fact ories
0.0 Industrials 7%
Light Industrials
05 06 07 08 09F 10F 25%
14%
600
30%
20% 400
10% 200
0% 0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 > FY12 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Gross revenue 283 322 380 419 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 74.3 75.6 75.6 75.6
Property expenses (73) (79) (93) (102) Net Income Margins (%) 52.4 54.3 50.9 50.1
Net Property Income 210 243 288 316 Dist to revenue (%) 57.9 58.1 54.4 53.5
Other Operating expenses (24) (28) (34) (38) Managers & Trustee’s fees 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.0
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (38) (40) (59) (69) ROAE (%) 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.2
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3
Net Income 148 175 194 210 ROCE (%) 6.4 6.0 6.1 6.1
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 4.9 5.3 4.3 4.0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net Income After Tax 148 175 194 210 Aggregate Leverage (%) 37.5 38.3 43.6 43.2
Total Return 337 669 194 210 Operating CFPS (S cts) 15.4 17.3 14.6 15.0
Non-tax deductible Items 15 12 13 15 Free CFPS (S cts) 15.4 17.0 16.0 15.5
Net Inc available for Dist. 164 187 207 224
Page 49
Corporate Profile
Ascott Residence Trust
Bloomberg: ART SP | Reuters: ASRT.SI
BUY S$1.30 FSSTI: 3,228.95 Started from an initial portfolio of 12 properties, its asset base
has tripled to 37 properties valued at S$1.53b as at Dec 07. It
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.30
has a well-balanced portfolio of 52% emerging market and 48%
Description stable economies to provide both earnings growth and stability.
Ascott Residence Trust (ART) is the first and only listed
service residence investment trust in Singapore, focusing on Strong FDI into parts of Asia such as Vietnam, China, Philippines
high-growth serviced residence and rental housing markets and Singapore would enable ART to enjoy strong demand for its
st
located in Asia. Since its listing on the 31 March 06, ART services and boost room and occupancy rates. Together these 4
has almost doubled its asset portfolio from S$856m to markets account for up to 82% of topline.
S$1.5bn with a high portfolio occupancy of c.80% as at 31
Dec 07. Acquisition visibility is clear with a strong pipeline from parent
Ascott and the group is likely on track to achieve its targeted
Manager & Strategy portfolio size of $2b by end 2008. With a gearing of 35%, it has
ART is managed by is managed by Ascott Residence Trust sufficient capacity to fund these purchases via debt.
Management Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The
Ascott Group Limited (Ascott). The manager aims to actively We continue to like ART’s exposure to the relatively more stable
pursue acquisition opportunities and yield optimization segment component of the hospitality market. Our price target
through leveraging on the experience of its management of $2.30 offers potential upside of 77%.
team and through the support of the sponsor.
Sponsor
The Ascott Group is the largest international serviced
residence owner-operator, with over 20,000 serviced
residence units in key cities of Asia Pacific, Europe and the
Gulf region.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
3.0 1.6
Ceiling 3%
1.5
2.5
1.4
2.0 1.3
M id 4.5 %
1.2
1.5 ART
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.0 0.7
Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 M ay-08 Oct-08 M ar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
2.0 7
1.8 6
1.6 5
1.4 4
3
1.2
2
1.0
1
0.8
0
Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07
M ar-06 Sep-06 M ar-07 Sep-07
FSSTI Index FTSRE Real Estate ART
ART M as 10 year Govt Bond
Page 50
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Ascott Residence Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Valuation by Country Revenue by Sector
Industrial
S$m % Japan
250 48 18%
20% Singapore
27% Others
47
200 34%
Australia
46
150 1%
45 Vietnam Healthcare
100
11% 17%
44
50 Philippines
43
9%
China Consumers
0 42 Manufacturing
Indonesia 26% 9% IT
06 07 08F 09F 12%
Gross Revenues LHS Net Property Margins RHS 6% 10%
4.0
2.0
1 - 6 mths
0.0 6 - 12 mths 22%
06 07 08F 09F 14%
88
300
150 250
86
200
100
84 150
50 100
82
50
0 80
0
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07
2008 2009 2010 2011
A OR (LHS) Rev P A R (LHS) Occupancy Rate (RHS)
Gross revenue 90 155 191 209 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 47.5 45.0 44.2 44.6
Property expenses (47) (85) (107) (116) Net Income Margins (%) 10.6 8.5 21.3 22.2
Net Property Income 43 70 84 93 Dist to revenue (%) 27.4 29.1 27.6 28.0
Other Operating expenses (4) (7) (10) (10) Managers & Trustee’s fees 4.1 4.3 5.0 4.8
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (10) (15) (19) (19) ROAE (%) 1.5 1.6 4.2 4.8
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (7) (7) 0 0 ROA (%) 0.9 0.9 2.4 2.7
Net Income 22 41 56 64 ROCE (%) 3.0 2.4 4.2 4.6
Tax (6) (22) (8) (10) Int. Cover (x) 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.4
Minority Interest (6) (6) (7) (8) Current Ratio (x) 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
Net Income After Tax 10 13 41 46 Aggregate Leverage (%) 29.1 34.1 35.6 35.7
Total Return 27 161 41 46 Operating CFPS (S cts) 7.6 11.2 10.3 10.5
Non-tax deductible Items (3) (115) 12 12 Free CFPS (S cts) (0.1) 10.5 8.7 9.6
Net Inc available for Dist. 25 45 53 58
Page 51
Corporate Profile
CapitaCommercial Trust
Bloomberg: CCT SP | Reuters: CACT.SI
BUY S$2.35 FSSTI: 3,228.95 As one of the largest commercial REIT with a total portfolio
NLA of 2.5msf or an estimated 7% of the prime Grade office
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.93
stock, CCT is well placed to ride on the office upcycle.
Description CCT will continue to benefit from the positive rental reversion
CCT invests primarily in income producing commercial trend with a total 56% of rental income due to be reviewed
assets. Since listing, its has grown to be Singapore’s biggest over the remaining 2008 to 2010. Large spreads between new
st
commercial REIT by market capitalization. As at 31 Dec 07, and previous leases should translate to strong earnings growth
its assets, located mostly in downtown core and in the CBD over the next 2 years. In addition, acquisition of One George St
has a combined appraised value of S$5.1bn.
for $1.165b or at a NPI yield of 4.25% is accretive to earnings.
Progressive AEI at Raffles City office and retail area should
Manager & Strategy
provide another boost to bottom line in the medium term.
CCT is managed CapitaCommercial Trust Management
Limited ("CCTML"), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of We continue to like CCT for its strong organic earnings growth
CapitaLand. The manager aims to actively manage its assets prospects. FY08 and FY09 yields are attractive at 4.5-5.5%.
and source for accretive acquisition opportunities when Our price target of $2.93 offers a potential upside of 25%.
available.
Sponsor
Capitaland is one of Asia’s largest listed real estate
companies, providing CMT with an encompassing pipeline
of potential asset injections.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
(x)
S$
1.8
3.9 Ceiling 3%
1.6
3.4
1.4
2.9
CCT Mid 4.5% 1.2
2.4
Floor 6% 1.0
1.9
0.8
1.4
0.6
0.9 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08
May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
3.5
7
3.0
6
2.5 5
2.0 4
1.5 3
1.0 2
0.5 1
0.0 0
May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07
May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08
CCT FSSTI FSTRE Real CCT MAS 10 year Govt Bond
Page 52
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
CapitaCommercial Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
300.0
S$'m % 82.0 Valuation
80.0
NLA S$'m Val psf % Portfolio
Capital Tower 740,665 1,090 1,472 24%
250.0
78.0
100.0
72.0
Robinson Pt 133,090 169 1,270 4%
70.0
Bugis Village 118,737 70 590 2%
50.0
68.0 Golden Shoe Carpark 42,416 110 2,593 2%
0.0 66.0 Market Street Carpark 21,197 59 2,783 1%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F 09F
Raffles City- 60% 440,435 1,447 3,284 32%
Gro ss Revenues LHS NPI M argin RHS
4500.2
DPU Performance ( since listing) Top 10 Tenant Profile
S cts
14.0 StarHub Ltd.
EDB
12.0
CapitaLand Group(2)
10.0 Cisco Systems (USA) Pte. Ltd.
35.0% S$'m
31.5% 700
30.0%
30.0% 600
25.0% 500
21.8%
20.0% 400
300
15.0% 12.6%
200
10.0%
100
4.1%
5.0%
-
0.0% FY08 FT09 FY10 FY11
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 > FY12
Gross revenue 156 240 273 342 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 73.6 72.5 79.7 81.1
Property expenses (41) (66) (55) (65) Net Income Margins (%) 45.1 45.8 50.9 50.9
Net Property Income 115 174 218 277 Dist to revenue (%) 50.6 50.2 55.1 55.1
Other Operating expenses (9) (19) (23) (27) Managers & Trustee’s fees 6.0 8.1 8.6 7.9
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (29) (48) (66) (87) ROAE (%) 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.4
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (6) (6) 0 0 ROA (%) 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7
Net Income 70 110 139 174 ROCE (%) 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.9
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.9
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Net Income After Tax 70 110 139 174 Aggregate Leverage (%) 31.6 24.0 37.8 37.8
Total Return 427 1,416 139 174 Operating CFPS (S cts) 8.5 11.6 9.2 11.2
Non-tax deductible Items 9 10 11 15 Free CFPS (S cts) (114.6) 9.7 (73.2) 12.0
Net Inc available for Dist. 79 120 151 188
NAV per shr (S cts) 191.2 284.5 273.4 262.8
DPU (S cts) 7.3 8.7 10.7 12.9
Distribution Yield (%) 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.5
Revenue Gth (%) 35.3 54.2 13.9 24.9
N Property Inc Gth (%) 36.1 51.7 25.3 27.1
Net Inc Gth (%) 14.1 56.6 26.5 24.9
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers
Page 53
Corporate Profile
CDL Hospitality Trust
Bloomberg: CDREIT SP | Reuters: CDLT.SI
BUY S$2.05 FSSTI: 3,228.95 CDL HT is Singapore’s purest listed hotel player with a total
inventory of 2,324 rooms or an 8% market share.
Target Price : 12 Month S$2.90
The group is well placed to benefit from various government
Description initiatives to position Singapore as a MICE and tourist
CDL H-REIT invests primarily in income producing hospitality destination with events like F1 in Sept’08, opening of the 2 IRs
assets. Its initial portfolio consists of four quality hotels in 2009/2010 as well as hosting the Youth Olympics.
located at and near the CBD. Since its listing, it has added 2
more hotels to its portfolio, with a combined appraised Strong industry fundamentals such as a lack of new room
value of S$1.6bn as at 31 Dec 2007. supply over FY08 and strong demand should underpin strong
Revpar growth. In 1Q08, room rates in Singapore grew a
Manager & Strategy strong 30% yoy.
CDL H-REIT is managed by M&C REIT Management Limited,
an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Millennium & We reiterate Buy on CDL HT’s given its strong positioning in a
Copthorne Hotels plc. The manager works with master buoyant sector. Based on our DPU estimates of 11.9cts and
lessees of the hotels to implement asset enhancement plans 13.1cts for FY08 and FY09, CDL HT is trading at 5.8-6.4%
and source for acquisitions with the expertise from its yield respectively. Our price target of $2.90 offers 41% upside.
sponsor, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Plc (M&C) as well
as its parents, City Developments Ltd.
Sponsor
M&C is an internationally recognized hotel group with a
portfolio of c.105 hotels in 18 countries around the world,
representing a wide variety of hotel styles with high
standards of service and facilities.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$
4.4
(x)
Ceiling 3% 2.6
3.9
2.4
3.4
2.2
2.9 CDL HT 2.0
Mid pt 5%
2.4 1.8
1.9 Floor 7% 1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.4
0.8
Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08
Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
S$
3.0 (% )
7
2.5
6
2.0 5
4
1.5
3
1.0 2
1
0.5
0
0.0 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 A pr-08 CD REIT MAS 10 year Govt Bond
CDL HT FTSRE FSSTI
Page 54
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
CDL Hospitality Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
S$m % Number Valuation Val / room
160 95 of Rooms S$'m S$'000
140 Orchard Hotel 653.0 458.0 701.4
94
120 Grand Copthorne
93
100 Waterfront Hotel 550.0 334.0 607.3
80 92 M Hotel 413.0 253.0 612.6
60
91
Copthorne King's Hotel 310.0 141.0 454.8
40 Orchard Hotel Shopping
20
90 Arcade - 40.3 -
0 89
Rendezvous Hotel
03 04 05 06 07 08F 09F Auckland 455.0 127.5 280.2
Gross Revenue LHS NPI Margin RHS Novotel Quay 398.0 275.0 691.0
2,779.0 1,628.8
82% 0
0
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07
81%
FY08 FY09
RevPAr (LHS) AOR (LHS) Occupancy (RHS)
Gross revenue 28 91 127 138 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 91.8 94.7 92.7 91.4
Property expenses (2) (5) (9) (12) Net Income Margins (%) 81.3 66.2 71.6 72.9
Net Property Income 26 86 117 126 Dist to revenue (%) 71.7 73.6 77.9 79.0
Other Operating expenses (4) (10) (10) (11) Managers & Trustee’s fees 15.7 10.9 8.1 7.8
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 6 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (5) (16) (16) (15) ROAE (%) 3.2 5.9 6.9 7.7
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 2.1 4.3 5.4 6.0
Net Income 23 60 91 101 ROCE (%) 2.0 5.6 6.6 7.1
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 4.6 4.8 6.5 7.8
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4
Net Income After Tax 23 60 91 101 Aggregate Leverage (%) 34.6 17.6 19.1 19.2
Total Return 156 357 91 101 Operating CFPS (S cts) 3.5 8.2 9.1 12.1
Non-tax deductible Items (3) 7 8 8 Free CFPS (S cts) (134.0) (16.3) 8.8 12.1
Net Inc available for Dist. 20 67 99 109
Page 55
Corporate Profile
Frasers Centerpoint Trust
Bloomberg: FCT SP | Reuters: FCRT.SI
BUY S$1.33 FSSTI: 3,228.95 We like FCT for its exposure to the resilient Singapore’s suburban
retail sector. FCT’s well-located properties, within huge
Price Target: 12 Month S$1.66
population catchment areas of Woodlands and Yishun, will
Description ensure continued strong patronage at its malls. Its overseas
FCT invests primarily in income producing retail properties. expansion, via a stake in Malaysian-listed Hektar Reit, should
Its initial portfolio consists of three quality suburban malls provide another wing of growth in the medium term.
with a combined appraised value of S$989 million as at 30
September 2007. We expect FCT to grow its DPU from its i) positive rental
reversions from its tenant expiry profile of c. 60% over FY08-
Manager & Strategy FY09, ii) accretive acquisition lineup of properties over the next
The manager, Frasers Centerpoint Asset Management Ltd, few years starting with Northpoint II in FY08 and Yew Tee Point
is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Sponsor Frasers in FY09.
Centerpoint Limited (“FCL”). It aims to actively manage its
properties and invest in income producing retail assets or In addition, asset enhancement activities such as downsizing of
properties that could be developed into income generating ‘big box’ space at Causeway Point and active tenant mix
properties. management should provide the organic component of growth.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
2.3 Ceiling 3.5%
2.1 1.95
1.9 1.70
1.7 Mid 4.5%
1.5 FCT Share Px 1.45
1.3
1.1 1.20
0.9
0.95
0.7
Floor 6%
0.5 0.70
Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (% )
1.8 7
1.7
6
1.6
1.5 5
1.4 4
1.3 3
1.2
1.1 2
1.0 1
0.9 0
0.8
Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07
Jul-06 Nov-06 M ar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 M ar-08
FCT MAS 10 yr Govt bond
FCT FTSE STI FTSRE Real Estate
Page 56
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Frasers Centerpoint Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
S$m Valuation Value
120 71%
NLA (sf) ($m) ($psf)
100 70%
Causeway Point 418,543 676 1,615
80 69%
Northpoint 149,243 266 1,782
60 68%
Anchorpoint 71,000 47 662
40 67%
Total 638,786 989
20 66%
0 65%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F
Gross Revenues (LHS) NPI Margin (RHS)
1.0 2%
0.0 0%
06 07 08F 09F Cold Storage Metro Courts John Little Cathay Cineplexes
Gross revenue 17 77 84 97 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 69.1 66.7 68.0 68.5
Property expenses (5) (26) (27) (30) Net Income Margins (%) 46.3 44.8 43.6 40.2
Net Property Income 12 52 57 66 Dist to revenue (%) 52.2 52.1 53.2 49.7
Other Operating expenses (1) (6) (8) (9) Managers & Trustee’s fees 7.9 8.2 9.9 9.7
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (3) (12) (14) (20) ROAE (%) 1.2 5.0 5.2 5.4
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 0.9 3.5 3.2 3.1
Net Income 8 35 37 39 ROCE (%) 1.2 4.6 4.4 4.6
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 4.1 3.9 3.4 2.8
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Net Income After Tax 8 35 37 39 Aggregate Leverage (%) 29.8 31.6 40.7 41.6
Total Return 29 87 37 39 Operating CFPS (S cts) 1.3 5.5 5.6 5.8
Non-tax deductible Items 1 4 4 4 Free CFPS (S cts) (0.8) 7.5 (18.2) (10.0)
Net Inc available for Dist. 9 40 45 48
Page 57
Corporate Profile
K-REIT Asia
Bloomberg: KREIT SP | Reuters: KASA.SI
BUY S$1.43 FSSTI: 3,228.95 K-REIT is a beneficiary of the positive office rental reversion
market. An estimated 42% of its portfolio NLA is due for lease
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.96
renewals over 2008-10. Average gross rent within its portfolio
Description is a low $6.86psf while current prime office rents are at an
KREIT Asia invests primarily in income producing office and average $16psf/mth as at end 1Q08.
commercial real estate assets. As at 31 Dec’07, its portfolio Balance sheet has strengthened post its rights issue, with
consists of 5 commercial assets located at and near the CBD gearing down to 27.6%, giving it significant headroom for
with a combined appraised value of S$2.1bn . new acquisitions. In the near term, it has an estimated
remaining short-term debt of $390m to be refinanced.
Manager & Strategy
K-REIT Asia is managed by K-REIT Asia Management Ltd, a
While the recent 8-for-5 rights issue, completed in May 08,
wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Land Ltd. The manager
aims to maximize yields to unitholders through actively may dampen DPU growth, it is likely to have been anticipated
managing its assets, practising prudent capital management and factored into share price.
and sourcing for acquisitions opportunities from third
parties and leveraging on the expertise from its sponsor, K-REIT offers post-rights FY08 and FY09 DPU yield of 5.2%
Keppel Land. and 6.1% respectively. Price target of $1.96 offers upside of
37%.
Sponsor
Keppel Land is the property arm of the Keppel Group, one
of Singapore's largest conglomerates.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
3.5 Ceiling 3% 1.8
3.0 1.6
1.4
2.5
M id 5% 1.2
2.0 1.0
1.5 0.8
Floor 8%
0.6
1.0 K REIT 0.4
0.5 0.2
0.0 0.0
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
Historical Relative Tend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
2.5
8
2.0 7
6
1.5
5
1.0 4
3
0.5 2
1
0.0
0
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
K-REIT FSSTI Index FTSRE Real Estate
K-REIT M A S 10 year Go vt B ond
Page 58
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
K-REIT Asia
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
S$ m %
NLA Value Value
70 72
Property (sq f) (S$'m) (S$ psf)
60 70
Prudential Tower 108,396 227 2,094
50 68
66
40
64 Keppel Towers and GE Tower 430,422 580 1,348
30
62 Bugis Junction Towers 247,372 303 1,225
20
60
10 58 One Raffles Quay* 445,023 992 2,229
0 56
05 06 07 08F 09F
Total 1,231,213 2,102
Gro ss Revenues LHS NP I M argins RHS
* K-REIT Asia owns a one-third interest of One Raffles Quay,
which has a total net lettable area of 124,078 sq
0.0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
06 07 08F 09F
Gross revenue 24 40 48 59 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 70.5 70.5 67.9 68.5
Property expenses (7) (12) (15) (18) Net Income Margins (%) 35.1 31.3 27.7 39.0
Net Property Income 17 28 32 40 Dist to revenue (%) 46.8 54.4 100.9 99.0
Other Operating expenses (3) (7) (13) (13) Managers & Trustee’s fees 14.4 18.2 27.2 22.6
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 (28) (28) to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (5) (9) (19) (17) ROAE (%) 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.6
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.1
Net Income 8 13 18 28 ROCE (%) 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.1
Tax 0 0 (5) (5) Int. Cover (x) 2.7 2.5 1.0 1.6
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income After Tax 8 13 13 23 Aggregate Leverage (%) 27.9 54.9 27.6 28.0
Total Return 8 445 13 23 Operating CFPS (S cts) 8.4 10.5 (3.9) (3.2)
Non-tax deductible Items 3 9 35 35 Free CFPS (S cts) (63.3) 11.3 (3.5) (2.8)
Net Inc available for Dist. 11 22 48 58
Page 59
Corporate Profile
Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT
Bloomberg: MMP SP | Reuters: MMPR.SI
BUY S$1.20 FSSTI: 3,228.95 MMP is an attractive undervalued play with its retail properties
located in prime Orchard Road. We expect MMP to benefit
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.63
from Government’s push to remake Orchard Road area as a
Description premier tourist draw in Singapore
MMP invests primarily in income producing retail assets The opening of ION Orchard will further enhance the product
located in the Asia Pacific Region. Its portfolio consists of 10 offerings along the Orchard Road belt, sustaining the capital
assets with a total combined appraised value ofS$2.2bn as values for its 2 prime assets. In the near term, catalysts for re-
at 31 Dec 07. Among these, it prides itself to have two rating could come from (i) Toshin rent review that should kick
distinctive local icons Wisma Atria and Nee Ann City in its
in from June 2008, (ii) outcome of its strategic review that is
portfolio.
expected to be concluded by Nov 2008.
Manager & Strategy We have a BUY rating and DCF-based S$1.63 target price.
MMP’s manager is MacquarieStar Prime REIT Management
Ltd, jointly held by Macquarie Bank (50%), Investmeore
(25%) and MEAG (25%). The manager aims to optimize
yields for unitholders through prudent capital management
and strategic and opportunistic acquisitions to grow its asset
base.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$ (x)
1.6 1.2
Ceiling 5%
1.5
1.1
1.4
1.3 1.0
M id 6%
1.2
0.9
1.1 MMP
1.0 Flo o r 7% 0.8
0.9 0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.6 0.5
Sep-05 M ar-06 Sep-06 M ar-07 Sep-07 M ar-08 Sep-08 Sep-05 M ar-06 Sep-06 M ar-07 Sep-07 M ar-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
2.1
8.0
1.9
7.0
1.7
6.0
1.5
1.3 5.0
1.1 4.0
0.9 3.0
0.7
2.0
0.5
Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 M ay-07 Oct-07 1.0
Page 60
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
S$ m % NLA Valuation S$'m Val psf % Portfolio
140 80 1
Wisma Atria 227,631 901.5 3,960 41%
120 79 Nee Ann City 2 397,008 1030.9 2,597 47%
78 Terzo Roppongi 16,005 42.1 2,630 2%
100
Secondo Harajuku 2,253 6.3 2,796 0%
77
80 Holon L. Aoyoma 4,865 21.8 4,481 1%
76 Primo Roppongi 5,069 16.9 3,334 1%
60
75 Nakameguro 3,528 7.4 2,098 0%
40 Daikanyama 8,087 25.3 3,128 1%
74
Ebisu Fort 27,917 79.6 2,851 4%
20 73 Chengdu 101,000 76.8 760 3%
0 72 793,363 2,208.6
1
06 07A 08F 09F : represents 74.23% of total share value fo the strata lots in WA
Gro ss Revenues LHS NP I M argin RHS
Retail component: 128,718 sqf, Office: 98,913 sqf
2
: represents 27.23% of total share value fo the strata lots in NAC.
Retail component: 256,022, Office 140,986
4.0
3.0
2.0 Retail
70%
1.0 Singapore
0.0
78%
200
10.0%
150
0.0% 100
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
50
Gross revenue 90 103 118 122 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 77.1 74.6 78.5 78.8
Property expenses (21) (26) (25) (26) Net Income Margins (%) 51.6 37.1 54.2 54.5
Net Property Income 69 77 93 96 Dist to revenue (%) 61.1 57.3 59.8 60.7
Other Operating expenses (9) (11) (16) (17) Managers & Trustee’s fees 10.1 10.9 13.6 14.1
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (13) (16) (16) (16) ROAE (%) 4.6 2.9 4.2 4.3
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (1) (8) 4 4 ROA (%) 3.2 2.0 2.8 3.0
Net Income 46 41 64 67 ROCE (%) 4.4 3.3 3.5 3.6
Tax 0 (3) 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 4.6 4.0 4.7 4.9
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4
Net Income After Tax 46 38 64 67 Aggregate Leverage (%) 26.0 29.6 29.6 29.6
Total Return 217 487 64 67 Operating CFPS (S cts) 6.8 7.6 7.1 7.3
Non-tax deductible Items 8 21 7 8 Free CFPS (S cts) 7.0 (11.0) 3.9 6.6
Net Inc available for Dist. 55 59 71 74
Page 61
Corporate Profile
MapleTree Logistics Trust
Bloomberg: MLT SP | Reuters: MAPL.SI
BUY S$1.03 FSSTI: 3,228.95 MLT is one of the larger industrial REITs in Singapore by
portfolio size. Led by an experienced management team and a
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.51
strong sponsor backing, MLT’s strong Pan-Asian exposure gives
Description investors the opportunity to ride the growth in the Asian
MLT invests primarily in income producing industrial and logistics sector.
business space that are located in Asia Pacific Region. Its Looking ahead, MLT expects to benefit from (i) optimizing
portfolio consists of 70 assets with a combined appraised yields through rental reversions for the remaining 124k sqm of
value of S$2.4bn as at 31 Dec 07. NLA between 2Q08 – 4Q08, (ii) additional income from
completion of another eight asset acquisitions throughout
Manager & Strategy
FY08F for a total consideration of S$291m. With gearing of
MLT’s manager is Mapletree Logistics Trust Management
60.9%, and a limited S$329m debt headroom, may prove to
Limited, a 100% subsidiary of its sponsor Mapletree
Investment. The investment strategy of the manager is to be a drag on share price in the near term.
invest in a diverse portfolio of good quality logistics We maintain BUY on MLT with DCF-backed target price of
properties in the Asian Region. S$1.51. P/BV valuation of 1.1x is on the lower end of the peer
group range of 0.8-1.5x. However, a re-rating of the stock
Sponsor could be triggered if it de-gears its balance sheet.
Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd is the Sponsor of the trust. It
has granted first right of refusal to MLT over its future sales
of logistics properties and will support MLT by warehousing
assets with good growth potential for possible future
acquisition.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
S$
(x)
2.1
Ceiling 1.2
1.9
1.1
1.7
1.5 M id 5.5% 1.0
1.3 0.9
1.1 M LT Flo o r 0.8
0.9 0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
Sep-05 M ar-06 Sep-06 M ar-07 Sep-07 M ar-08
Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Mar-08 Nov-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) (%)
2.5
8.0
2.0 7.0
6.0
1.5
5.0
1.0 4.0
3.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 0.0
Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
M LT FSSTI Index FSTRE Real Estate
M LT M A S 10 yr Go vt B o nd
Page 62
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Mapletree Logistics Trust
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details (Top 10 properties by Value)
S$ m % Valuation
250 100
% revnue NLA S$'m Val psf Location
200 TIC Tech Centre 4.80% 330,956 65.9 199 Singapore
90
Pulau Sebarok 4.80% 5,492,464 99 18 Singapore
150 Jurong Logistics Hub 10.40% 1,340,814 186 139 Singapore
80
Shatin 2 3.3% 280,040 86.4 309 HK
100
Shantin 3 3.2% 261,963 84.7 323 HK
70 Shatin 4 9.1% 647,913 205.7 317 HK
50
Grandtech Centre 4.6% 508,991 162.1 318 HK
0 60 Tsuen Wan 1 2.1% 183,931 52.2 284 HK
05 06 07 08F 09F
Kyoto Centre 2.8% 242,208 105.9 437 Japan
Gro ss Revenues LHS NP I M argins RHS
Zama Centre 3.2% 443,000 135.8 307 Japan
DPU Performance ( since listing) Asset Class by Country / Trade Sector
S cts Oil & Chemical
9.0 Wareho using
Lo gistics
Japan 4% FTZ 3 P L
8.0 14%
13% 5%
7.0 China
6.0 4%
30% 500
25% 400
21%
20%
16%
300
15%
9% 200
10% 8% 7%
5% 100
0%
0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 > FY12
FY0 8 FY0 9 FY1 0 FY1 1 FY1 2
Gross revenue 80 142 185 199 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 87.1 88.1 90.0 90.0
Property expenses (10) (17) (19) (20) Net Income Margins (%) 15.5 40.0 46.1 45.5
Net Property Income 70 125 167 179 Dist to revenue (%) 50.2 50.5 46.3 45.8
Other Operating expenses (10) (15) (24) (25) Managers & Trustee’s fees 12.8 10.6 12.8 12.8
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (18) (4) 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (18) (34) (50) (55) ROAE (%) 2.6 6.9 8.2 8.7
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 1.3 2.9 3.3 3.3
Net Income 23 72 93 99 ROCE (%) 3.5 4.7 5.3 5.4
Tax (11) (15) (8) (8) Int. Cover (x) 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.8
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net Income After Tax 12 57 85 91 Aggregate Leverage (%) 56.3 55.4 60.9 60.9
Total Return 68 182 85 91 Operating CFPS (S cts) 7.2 9.8 8.4 8.2
Non-tax deductible Items (28) (111) 0 1 Free CFPS (S cts) (77.7) (67.6) (21.8) 8.2
Net Inc available for Dist. 40 71 86 91
Page 63
Corporate Profile
Parkway Life REIT
Bloomberg: PREIT SP | Reuters: PWLR.SI
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
S$
1.40 Ceiling 5% (%)
1.35 0.94
1.30 0.92
M id pt 5.5%
1.25 0.9
1.20 0.88
P REITT Flo o r 6%
1.15 0.86
1.10
0.84
1.05
0.82
1.00
0.8
A ug-07 No v-07 Feb-08 M ay-08 A ug-08 No v-08
A ug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 A pr-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
%
1.2 7.0
6.0
1.1
5.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
2.0
0.9
1.0
0.0
0.8
Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08
Au g -07 Oct -07 Dec-07 Feb -08 Ap r -08
PREIT FSSTI FSTRE
PREIT M As 10 year Govt Bo nd
Page 64
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Corporate Profile
Parkway Life REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details
S$ m No of
60 96% Operational Valuatio Valuation/
50
Property Hospital Beds n (S$m) bed (S$m)
95% Mt Elizabeth Hospital 339 400.1 1.18
40
Medical centres 30 171.6 5.7
30 94%
Gleneagles Hospital 280 200.5 0.72
20
Medical centres 10 24.8 2.48
93%
10 Eastshore Hospital and 154 34.5 4.46
0 92% Medical centres 28 - -
07A 08F 09F
Gro ss Revenue LHS NP I M argins RHS
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Mt Elizabeth
0.0 63%
07A 08F 09F
Gross revenue 17 48 51 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 93.6 94.3 94.6
Property expenses (1) (3) (3) Net Income Margins (%) 75.1 80.9 79.3
Net Property Income 16 45 48 Dist to revenue (%) 80.7 83.6 81.5
Other Operating expenses (2) (6) (6) Managers & Trustee’s fees 13.1 12.0 11.9
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (1) (1) (2) ROAE (%) 1.5 4.7 4.9
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 ROA (%) 1.5 4.4 4.5
Net Income 13 38 40 ROCE (%) 1.6 4.6 4.8
Tax 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 15.0 57.1 24.3
Minority Interest 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.7 0.3 0.3
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.7 0.3 0.3
Net Income After Tax 13 38 40 Aggregate Leverage (%) 4.0 7.9 7.9
Total Return 69 38 40 Operating CFPS (S cts) 2.3 6.4 6.7
Non-tax deductible Items (55) 1 1 Free CFPS (S cts) (79.0) 1.0 6.7
Net Inc available for Dist. 14 40 41
Page 65
Corporate Profile
Suntec REIT
Bloomberg: SUN SP | Reuters: SUNT.SI
BUY S$1.61 FSSTI: 3,228.95 Suntec REIT offers investors exposure to the local office and retail
scene through its portfolio of 1.9msf NLA of retail and
Price Target : 12 month S$1.98
commercial space.
Description
Suntec REIT invests primarily in income producing DPU growth over the next 2 years are expected to be derived
commercial and retail real estate assets. Its initial portfolio from office lease reversions as well as higher retail rents post its
consists of the retail and office portion of Suntec City AEI at Suntec City. The group is scheduled to renew an
located along the CBD. Since its listing, Suntec has added 3 estimated 53% of NLA over FY09-10 and the significant spreads
more assets to its portfolio, bringing its combined appraised between new and expiring contracts will provide strong earnings
value to S$5.7bn as at 31st Dec 07. uplift. In addition, plans to enhance Park Mall and add a further
67,000sf GFA (from the purchase of adjacent two state land
Manager & Strategy sites) could provide another earnings growth driver in the
Suntec REIT is managed by ARA Asset Management Limited, medium term. Refinancing concerns are largely allayed with the
a listed firm on the SGX and an affiliate of Cheung Kong recent $270m CB issue (with greenshoe option). The remaining
Group. The manager aims to grow and deliver stable $400m short-term debt to be refinanced by Oct 08, are also
distributions through active asset management to maximize being progressively addressed.
property yields and to source for accretive acquisition
opportunities, leveraging on the good relationship it has We have a BUY rating on Suntec REIT with a target price of
established with Cheung Kong. S$1.98.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band P/BV
(x)
S$
1.2
2.5 Ceiling 4%
2.3 1.1
2.1
M id 5% 1.0
1.9
1.7 0.9
SUN
1.5 0.8
1.3
0.7
1.1 Flo o r 6.5%
0.9 0.6
0.7 0.5
0.5
0.4
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08
Dec-05 A pr-06 A ug-06 Dec-06 A pr-07 A ug-07 Dec-07
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
3.0 (%)
8.0
2.5
7.0
2.0 6.0
1.5
5.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
0.5 2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Suntec FSSTI Index FTSRE Real Estate Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
Page 66
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Suntec REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details (Top 10 properties by Value)
S$m
300
%
76
Valuation Val %
76
NLA S$'m psf Portfolio
250
75 Suntec City 2,070,854 4,118 1,989 75%
200 75 ORQ 445,192 942 2,115 17%
74
150 Park Mall 270,191 313 1,157 6%
74
100 73 Chijmes 79,977 139 1,738 3%
73 2,866,214 5,511
50
72
0 72
05 06 07 08F 09F
Gross Revenues LHS NPI Margin RHS
6.0 10.00%
4.0 5.00%
5.00%
2.0
30% 500
400
20% 300
200
10%
100
0
0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 > FY12
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12>
Gross revenue 171 190 241 271 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 73.4 73.9 74.5 75.4
Property expenses (46) (50) (62) (67) Net Income Margins (%) 46.2 46.1 52.6 54.6
Net Property Income 126 141 180 204 Dist to revenue (%) 55.4 60.7 62.3 63.6
Other Operating expenses (16) (20) (25) (26) Managers & Trustee’s fees 9.6 10.3 10.5 9.7
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (30) (33) (39) (40) ROAE (%) 4.2 3.0 3.3 3.6
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.6
Net Income 79 88 127 148 ROCE (%) 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.2
Tax 0 0 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.4
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7
Net Income After Tax 79 88 127 148 Aggregate Leverage (%) 32.1 20.1 26.9 27.5
Total Return 645 1,379 127 148 Operating CFPS (S cts) 12.4 8.8 7.4 8.0
Non-tax deductible Items 16 28 23 24 Free CFPS (S cts) 10.3 10.2 (60.2) 8.0
Net Inc available for Dist. 95 115 150 172
NAV per shr (S cts) 166.1 252.5 246.9 234.1
DPU (S cts) 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.8
Distribution Yield (%) 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.1
Revenue Gth (%) 60.1 11.1 26.7 12.4
N Property Inc Gth (%) 61.1 11.8 27.7 13.8
Net Inc Gth (%) 39.7 10.7 44.7 16.7
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers
Page 67
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 68
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Hong Kong
Page 69
Corporate Profile
Champion REIT
Bloomberg: 2778 HK | Reuters: 2778.HK
BUY HK$3.97 HSI : 25,610 Champion is a beneficiary of rising office rents. In FY07, an
estimated 50% of its leases was marked to market. Average
Price Target: 12-month HK$5.19 passing rents surged 74% from Jan 07 to HK67.06psf in Dec 07.
Sponsor
Great Eagle develops, invests in and manages office, retail,
residential and hotel properties in Hong Kong, North
America and Europe. Its key assets include nine hotels (Hong
Kong and overseas), Langham Place in Mongkok and 48.5%
stake in Champion REIT.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
(x)
HK$ 0.8
8.5
0.75
0.7
6.5 Ceiling 5%
0.65
M id 7 %
0.6
4.5
Champio n
Flo o r 9%
0.55
0.5
M ay-06 O c t-06 M ar-07 A ug-07 Jan-08
2.5
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
1.20 10%
1.15
1.10 8%
1.05
1.00 6%
0.95
0.90
4%
0.85
0.80
2%
0.75
0.70
0%
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08
Champion HSI Index
Champion HK 30 year govt bond
Page 70
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Champion REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
HK$m Asset Value GRA (sf) Value (HK$psf)
1400 86
600 78
400 76
200 74
0 72
2006 2007 2008f 2009f
Revenue NPI margin
(HK$) (%)
0.3
7,000
0.2
5,000
0.1
3,000
0
FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F
1,000
Sources: Company, DBS Vickers 2008 2009 2010
Gross revenue 340 839 1,171 1,308 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 76.8 81.1 83.9 84.2
Property expenses (79) (158) (188) (207) Net Income Margins (%) 213.7 386.0 35.2 35.6
Net Property Income 261 680 983 1,101 Dist to revenue (%) 75.7 79.8 73.8 69.5
Other Operating expenses (22) (90) (130) (144) Managers & Trustee’s fees 6.4 10.8 11.1 11.0
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (184) (355) (378) (396) ROAE (%) 4.4 17.9 2.0 2.2
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 827 3,696 0 0 ROA (%) 2.8 11.7 1.3 1.5
Net Income 882 3,931 476 561 ROCE (%) 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.8
Tax (156) (693) (63) (95) Int. Cover (x) 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.4
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5
Net Income After Tax 726 3,238 412 466 Aggregate Leverage (%) 31.4 26.8 25.3 24.9
Total Return 726 3,238 412 466 Operating CFPS (HK cts) 8.2 17.3 30.5 32.0
Non-tax deductible Items (469) (2,568) 453 443 Free CFPS (HK cts) (407.2) (6.0) 30.7 32.3
Net Inc available for Dist. 257 670 865 908
Page 71
Corporate Profile
Fortune REIT
Bloomberg: FRT SP | Reuters: FORT.SI
BUY HK$4.98 HSI : 25,610 Fortune REIT enjoyed a healthy rental reversion of 13.9% upon
lease renewal in 1Q08. However, due to more down time
Price Target: 12-month HK$6.83
incurred in association with progressive repositioning of tenant
Description mix at The Metropolis Mall and Jubilee Court Shopping Mall,
Fortune REIT has an initial portfolio of five suburban net property income fell marginally by1.8% y-o-y in 1Q08.
shopping malls in Hong Kong when it was listed in Portfolio occupancy stood at 90.7% at Mar 08 but committed
Singapore in August 2003. In June 2005, it acquired six occupancy reached 94.2%
retail properties for HK$3.4bn, doubling its asset size.
Currently, its eleven suburban malls has total rentable area Fortune REIT completed the second phase of asset
of 1.7m sf with appraised valuation of HK$9.7bn at Dec 07. enhancement works at The Waldorf Garden property in Mar
08, with strong leasing commitment. Over 90% of enhanced
Manager & Strategy area has been committed with new rents about 60% higher
The REIT is managed by ARA Asset Management than the previous ones. Fortune REIT also plans new asset
(Singapore) Limited, a a member of Singapore-listed ARA enhancement initiatives at City One Shatin property and
Asset Management.The manager aims to provide stable Smartland to optimize rental returns.
distributions with long-term growth potential through
implementing asset management strategies, making yield- Fortune offers high distribution yield of 7.2% and 37% to its
accretive acquisition opportunities and optimizing capital price target of HK$6.83. Maintain Buy
structure.
Sponsor
Cheung Kong (CK) is one of the largest developers in Hong
Kong and holds 49.9% stake in Hutchison Whampoa (HW).
CK holds investment properties, including shopping malls,
directly or indirectly through HW.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
HK$ (x)
8 1.9
Ceilin g 5% 1.8
1.7
7
1.6
1.5
Mid 5%
6 1.4
Fo r t u n e 1.3
5 Flo o r 7% 1.2
1.1
1
4 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07
Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
4.0 (x)
3.5
3.0 7.0%
2.5
6.0%
2.0
1.5 5.0%
1.0
4.0%
0.5
0.0 3.0%
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
2.0%
Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07
Page 72
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Fortune REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
Valuation
HKD'm %
720 74% NLA sqf HK$'m Val per sqf % portfolio
30%
40 0
25%
20% 30 0
15%
20 0
10%
5%
10 0
0%
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
0
20 08 2009 20 10 20 11
Gross revenue 614 615 644 695 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 73.5 75.5 76.1 74.3
Property expenses (176) (165) (169) (194) Net Income Margins (%) 152.9 114.5 40.8 40.4
Net Property Income 438 450 476 501 Dist to revenue (%) 45.0 46.3 45.6 42.4
Other Operating expenses 0 0 0 0 Managers & Trustee’s fees 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.6
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (49) (42) (45) (46) to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (100) (105) (104) (106) ROAE (%) 14.4 9.9 3.5 3.6
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 710 461 0 0 ROA (%) 10.2 7.2 2.6 2.7
Net Income 998 764 327 349 ROCE (%) 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.8
Tax (59) (60) (64) (68) Int. Cover (x) 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.4
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Net Income After Tax 939 704 263 281 Aggregate Leverage (%) 25.3 24.1 23.2 22.5
Total Return 939 704 263 281 Operating CFPS (HK cts) 53.7 54.7 56.9 60.0
Non-tax deductible Items (663) (419) 31 14 Free CFPS (HK cts) 51.1 48.3 49.4 52.0
Net Inc available for Dist. 277 285 294 295
Page 73
Corporate Profile
Prosperity REIT
Bloomberg: 808 HK | Reuters: 0808.HK
BUY HK1.59 HSI : 25,610 Prosperity REIT’s net property income grew 15.1% to
HK$193m in FY07, thanks to positive rental reversion and
Price Target: 12-month HK$1.80
effective cost control. The rental reversion averaged 18.2%,
Description with average effective unit rents rising 11.7% y-o-y to
Prosperity REIT is the first private sector REIT listed on the HK$13.38psf. Cost-to-revenue ratio improved to 21.2% from
Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) in December 2005. It FY06’s 22.8%. But net property income growth was partially
owns seven office, industrial/office and industrial properties offset by higher cash finance cost due to its interest rate
throughout Hong Kong, totalling 1.22m sf of gross rental swap’s step-up structure. Overall, Prosperity REIT’s distribution
area. income grew 9.4% y-o-y to HK$166m.
Manager & Strategy Portfolio occupancy edged up to 98.4% in Dec 07 from 97%
The REIT is managed by ARA Asset Management (Prosperity) in Jun 07. At end Dec 07, Prosperity REIT’s gearing stood at
Limited, a member of Singapore-listed ARA Asset 33.4%.
Management. The manager aims to provide stable
distributions with long-term growth potential through Our DDM-based target price stands at HK$1.80, which
implementing asset management strategies, making yield- suggests a total return of 22%. Hence we re-iterate our BUY
accretive acquisition opportunities and optimizing capital recommendation on the counter.
structure.
Sponsor
Cheung Kong (CK) is one of the largest developers in Hong
Kong and holds 49.9% stake in Hutchison Whampoa (HW).
CK holds office and industrial properties for rental purpose
directly or indirectly through HW.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
HK$
8.5 (x)
0.8
0.75
6.5 Ceiling 5%
0.7
M id 7 % 0.65
4.5 0.6
Champio n
Flo o r 9%
0.55
2.5 0.5
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
1.20 10%
1.15
1.10 8%
1.05
1.00 6%
0.95
0.90 4%
0.85
0.80
2%
0.75
0.70
0%
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08
May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08
Champion HSI Index
Champion HK 30 year govt bond
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, DBS Vickers
Page 74
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Prosperity REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
Valuation Value
300 (HK$m) 80
Property GRA (sf) (HK$m) (HK$psf)
250 Metropolis Tower 271418 1970 7258
79
200
Prosperity Millenia Plaza 217955 1080 4955
Harbourfront Landmark 77021 350 4544
150 78
Modern Warehouse 240000 609 2538
100 Trendy Centre 173764 568 3269
77
50 Prosperity Centre 149253 482 3229
New Treasure 86168 166 1926
0 76
2006 2007 2008f 2009f
1600
0.13
1200
800
0.12
400
0.11
06 07 08F 09F 0
2008 2009 2010 >2010
Gross revenue 217 245 257 267 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 77.2 78.8 79.4 79.7
Property expenses (50) (52) (53) (54) Net Income Margins (%) 143.1 133.7 32.0 31.9
Net Property Income 168 193 204 213 Dist to revenue (%) 76.4 67.8 66.8 59.4
Other Operating expenses (35) (36) (39) (40) Managers & Trustee’s fees 16.3 14.9 15.1 14.9
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (80) (85) (64) (64) ROAE (%) 10.5 10.7 2.7 2.8
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 316 310 0 0 ROA (%) 6.1 6.2 1.6 1.6
Net Income 368 381 101 108 ROCE (%) 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8
Tax (57) (54) (19) (23) Int. Cover (x) 1.7 1.8 2.6 2.7
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Net Income After Tax 311 327 82 85 Aggregate Leverage (%) 35.1 33.4 34.3 33.4
Total Return 311 327 82 85 Operating CFPS (HK cts) 12.4 14.4 15.1 15.5
Non-tax deductible Items (159) (161) 89 74 Free CFPS (HK cts) 16.1 12.1 15.1 15.5
Net Inc available for Dist. 152 166 172 159
Page 75
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 76
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Thailand
Page 77
Corporate Profile
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund
Bloomberg: CPNRF TB | Reuters: CPMRF.BK
BUY Bt10.5 SET: 848.71 CPNRF offers an attractive value proposition with a generous
dividend yield of 8.0%. Our target price of Bt12 offers a
Price Target : 12-month Bt12
potential upside of 14.3%
Description
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund invests in retail assets As the largest listed property fund, CPNRF is likely to be a key
located in Thailand. beneficiary of the proposed relaxation in rules for property
funds.
Fund Manager
The REIT is managed by TMB Asset Management Company Plans to acquire Central Plaza Pinklao from parent CPN, earlier
Limited. The manager aims to grow and deliver stable postponed, are now back on track after the BOT recently lifted
distributions through active asset management to maximize the 30% capital control. The Fund is considering three
yields and the fund NAV. investment alternatives to acquire (i) Central Pinklao, (ii)
Central Pinklao + Central Chiangmai, and (iii) Central Pinklao +
Property Manager Central Chiangmai + Central Phuket (owned by Central Group,
Central Pattana Public Company Limited ("CPN") has not CPN). Final conclusion has yet to be reached, probably
experienced over 25 years of success in developing and soon and assets are to be injected into the fund by 3Q08.
managing its properties and is one of the largest and most
sophisticated retail property developers in Thailand. We also like CPNRF for its organic growth angle coming from
rental reversions. In addition to rising rents, asset enhancement
activities implemented at Central Rama 2 and Central Rama 3
should expand leasable area and improve rates.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
Bt (x)
15
Mid 6%
1.20
14
13 1.10
12 Mid 7%
1.00
11
10
CPNRF
0.90
9 Flo o r 9%
0.80
8
Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 0.70
Au g -05No v-05 Feb -06May-06Au g -06 No v -06 Feb -07 May-07Au g -07No v -07 Feb -08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
1.4 10%
1.3 8%
1.2
6%
1.1
4%
1
2%
0.9
0%
0.8 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08
Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08
Page 78
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
CPN Retail Growth Property Fund
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
1400 (Btm) 92%
Valuation (TH NLA(sf) Value (THBpsf) Occupancy
1200
1002720 5932
1000 Central Rama II 5,939 (93155sm) (63754/sm) 99%
90%
800
422099 11613
600 Central Plaza
4,902 (39214sm) (125002/sm) 92%
88% Ratchada-Rama III
400
200
0 86%
05 06 07 08f 09f
Revenue (Btm) NPI Margins
25%
20% Entertainment
16%
15% Electronics, IT
16%
10%
Food & Beverage
5%
11%
0% Fashion
Vacant
2008 2009 2010 20011-2024 2025 18%
3%
Gross revenue 1,120 1,186 1,261 1,301 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 88.5 88.4 91.1 91.1
Property expenses (128) (138) (112) (116) Net Income Margins (%) 75.9 75.6 73.8 76.2
Net Property Income 992 1,048 1,149 1,185 Dist to revenue (%) 76.1 75.7 72.3 72.4
Interest and Other Income 81 85 3 3 Managers & Trustee’s fees
Fund Manager Fees & (21) (21) (27) (27) to sales (%) 15.5 15.8 15.3 15.1
Property Manager's Fees (153) (166) (166) (170) ROAE (%) 7.3 7.7 8.3 8.5
Amortization Expenses (49) (49) (28) 0 ROA (%) 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.4
Net Investment Income 850 897 931 991 ROCE (%) 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.8
Asset revaluation loss 55 61 0 0 Int. Cover (x) Cash Cash Cash Cash
Net Income 905 958 931 991 Current Ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9
Asset revaluation loss 55 61 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9
Distributable Income 899 946 959 991 Operating CFPS (S cts) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9
Dividend pay-out ratio 95% 95% 95% 95% Free CFPS (S cts) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
Dividends 853 898 911 942
Page 79
Corporate Profile
Samui Airport Property Fund
Bloomberg: SPF TB | Reuters: SPF.BK
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
Bt (x)
10.5 1.1
Ce i li n g 9%
1
10
0.9
9.5
M id 10% 0.8
9
SPF 0.7
8.5 0.6
Flo o r 11%
8 0.5
No v -06 Fe b -07 M ay -07 Au g -07 No v -07 Fe b -08
Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x)
1.4
12%
1.3
10%
1.2
8%
1.1
6%
1
4%
0.9
2%
0.8
0%
Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08
Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08
Samui Airport Property Fund SET Index
SPF Thai Govt Fund
Page 80
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Samui Airport Property Fund
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
Assets:
THB'm
1000 91%
Leased Assets I) The Leased Land, 719,935 sqm
900 91%
800 ii) 45 x 2,060 meter runway
90%
700
90% iii) Parking Apron ( 2 125 x 150m)
600
500 89% iv) Passenger terminals (1,939sqm)
400 89% v) New terminals (U/C) size 7,905 sqm
300
200
88% Bangkok Airways Company Limited
100 88% Lessor (for 30 yrs ending Nov 2036)
0 87% Bangkok Airways Company Limited
FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F (for 3 yrs, with an option to renew for
Sub lessee 9 terms of 3 years each)
Gross Revenues NI Margin
Investment in properties 10960THBm
DPU Performance ( since listing) SPF: Monthly Passenger Number and YoY Growth
THB 81,000 16%
1
0.9 78,000 14%
0.8 75,000 12%
0.7
72,000 10%
0.6
69,000 8%
0.5
0.4 66,000 6%
0.3 63,000 4%
0.2 60,000 2%
0.1
57,000 0%
0
Jan Feb Mar
FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F
2008 2007 y-o-y (RHS)
Turnover 81 828 884 927 Net Invest Inc Margins (%) 88.7 88.5 89.3 90.8
Interest income 1 9 9 10 Dist to revenue (%) 0.0 104.8 95.6 95.7
Total revenue 82 837 893 937 Managers & Trustee's fees 4.4 1.0 1.1 1.0
Fund's admin expenses (4) (38) (39) (40) to sales (%)
Amortization expense (6) (66) (65) (55) ROAE (%) 0.7 6.5 7.3 8.1
Total expenses (10) (104) (104) (96) ROA (%) 0.7 6.5 7.2 8.0
Net investment income 72 733 789 841 ROCE (%) 0.7 6.5 7.3 8.1
Asset revaluation loss (2) 1,661 (378) (378) Int. Cover (x) Cash Cash Cash Cash
Net income 69 2,394 411 463 Current Ratio (x) 1.55 3.43 4.21 4.62
Amortization expense 6 66 65 55 Quick ratio (x) 1.55 3.43 4.21 4.62
Asset revaluation loss 2 (1,661) 378 378 Operating CFPS (Bt) 0% 0% 0% 0%
Distributable income 78 799 854 897 Free CFPS (Bt) (9.80) 0.74 0.90 0.95
Div. Payout 0% 110% 100% 100%
Distribution 0 877 854 897
Page 81
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 82
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Malaysia
Page 83
Corporate Profile
Axis REIT
Bloomberg: AXRB MK | Reuters: AXSR.KL
BUY RM1.77 KLCI : 1,287.15 Axis REIT offers the twin growth story of organic and
acquisition expansion. As an independent REIT, Axis has
Target Price: 12-month RM2.60 demonstrated an impressive track record for yield accretive
acquisitions. Purchase of 7 properties in 2007 at net yields of
Description
Axis REIT invests primarily in income producing office and 6.3% vs cost of debt of 4-5% will enhance earnings from
industrial real estate assets located in Malaysia. Its portfolio FY08.
consists of 14 properties with a total appraised value of RM
570m as at 31 Dec 07. Acquisition growth remains strong with properties such as
Wisma Academy, Proton Logistic Centre and Toyota Logistic
Manager & Strategy Centre. With a gearing of 48% vs the limit of 50%, it has
Axis REIT is managed by Axis Managers Berhad. The sufficient debt headroom for new purchases. In addition,
manager aims to grow and deliver stable distributions organic growth potentials could arise from enhancements of
through active asset management to maximize property Menara Axis, Crystal Plaza and Infinite Centre.
yields and to source for accretive acquisition opportunities.
Our DCF-backed price target of RM2.60 translates to an upside
of 47% from current price levels. Potential catalysts could
come in the form of rising rental income, asset enhancement
plans and new acquisitions.
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Historical Yield Band Price/BV
RM (x)
2.4 1.9
2.3 1.8
2.2 Ceilin g 6% 1.7
2.1 1.6
2 1.5
Mid 7 %
1.9 1.4
1.8 Axis 1.3
1.7 1.2
1.6 Flo o r 8% 1.1
1.5 1
1.4 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07
Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08
Historical Relative Trend Analysis Yield vs 10-yr Govt Bond (since listing)
(x) 9.0%
2.10
1.90 8.0%
1.70 7.0%
1.50 6.0%
1.30 5.0%
1.10
4.0%
0.90
3.0%
0.70 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08
Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08
Axis REIT Malaysian Bond Yield
Axis REIT KLSE Index KLPROP Index
Page 84
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Corporate Profile
Axis REIT
EARNINGS DATA
Gross Revenues vs NPI Margin Portfolio Details:
Appraised Value (RM'm) NLA (sf) Value (RMpsf) Occupancy
60 RM 'm 85%
Menara Axis 87.7 147686 593.8 100%
Crystal Plaza 82.8 203376 407.1 100%
50
Nestle House 41 106000 386.8 100%
40 FCI 13.9 136619 101.7 100%
Axis Plaza 30.7 118765 258.5 82%
30 80% Axis Business Park 97.8 341065 286.7 98%
Infinite Centre 35.2 147408 238.8 100%
20 Wisma Kemajuan 45.9 200117 229.4 66%
Kayanqan Depot 21.8 163769 133.1 69%
10
Wisma Bintang (C&C) 36 172967 208.1 100%
0 75% Nestel Office & WH (Shah Alam) 7.5 27554 272.2 100%
Axis Shag Alam Distribution Centre 1 18.5 110591 167.3 100%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08F FY09F Axis North Port Logistics Center 1 13.6 130000 104.6 100%
Giant Hypermarket (Sungei Petani) 38 138000 275.4 100%
Gross Revenues LHS NPI Margins RHS 570.4
30%
150
25%
20%
100
15%
10%
50
5%
0%
0
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
FY08 > FY08
Gross revenue 41 42 55 56 Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 81.0 82.6 78.4 78.4
Property expenses (8) (7) (12) (12) Net Income Margins (%) 104.9 70.2 65.4 65.6
Net Property Income 33 35 43 44 Dist to revenue (%) 65.2 67.6 63.0 63.2
Other Operating expenses (3) (6) (7) (7) Managers & Trustee’s fees 8.2 13.2 11.4 11.2
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 to sales (%)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (3) 1 0 0 ROAE (%) 15.0 8.7 9.5 9.6
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 17 0 0 0 ROA (%) 11.4 7.1 8.6 8.7
Net Income 43 30 36 37 ROCE (%) 8.5 7.5 9.4 9.7
Tax 0 (1) 0 0 Int. Cover (x) 9.6 6.1 96.8 107.4
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Current Ratio (x) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Quick ratio (x) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4
Net Income After Tax 43 29 36 37 Aggregate Leverage (%) 21.6 2.0 2.0 2.0
Total Return 0 0 0 0 Operating CFPS (sen) 14.3 11.2 14.1 14.4
Non-tax deductible Items (16) (1) (2) (2) Free CFPS (sen) (13.1) 10.9 14.1 17.5
Net Inc available for Dist. 27 28 34 35
Page 85
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
Page 86
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
ECONOMIC FORECASTS
GDP Inflation Forecast
GDP 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f Inflation 2005 2006 2007 2008f 2009f
US 3.2 3.3 2.2 2.0 2.6 US 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.5 2.3
Japan 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.5 2.1 Japan -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.2
Eurozone 1.6 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.2 Eurozone 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.1
Indonesia 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.3 6.5 Indonesia 10.5 13.3 6.3 10.0 7.0
Malaysia 5.0 5.9 6.3 5.8 6.0 Malaysia 3.1 3.6 2.0 2.8 2.0
Philippines 4.9 5.4 7.3 6.6 6.7 Philippines 7.7 6.3 2.8 5.9 3.1
Singapore 6.9 7.9 7.7 6.0 6.8 Singapore 0.5 1.0 2.1 5.0 2.8
Thailand 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.6 5.2 Thailand 4.5 4.6 2.2 5.0 2.8
China 10.4 11.1 11.5 10.0 9.0 China 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.5 4.5
Hong Kong 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.2 4.7 Hong Kong 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.8 4.0
Taiwan 4.2 4.9 5.7 5.0 5.4 Taiwan 2.3 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.4
Korea 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 5.0 Korea 2.8 2.2 2.5 3.7 3.0
India 9.0 9.9 8.7 8.6 8.6 India 4.4 5.4 4.3 6.5 4.9
Interest rates Current 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f USD X rates Current 2Q08f 3Q08f 4Q08f 1Q09f
US 2.0 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 US - - - - -
Japan 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75 Japan 104.7 105.0 100.0 95.0 98.0
Eurozone 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Eurozone 1.55 1.48 1.50 1.54 1.50
Indonesia 8.25 8.5 8.75 8.75 8.75 Indonesia 9242 9300 9000 8700 9000
Malaysia 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Malaysia 3.23 3.25 3.15 3.00 3.15
Philippines 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Philippines 42.8 42.5 41.0 39.0 41.0
Singapore na na na na na Singapore 1.37 1.39 1.36 1.33 1.36
Thailand 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.75 4.0 Thailand 32.3 33.0 32.0 30.0 31.0
China 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 China 6.99 6.90 6.70 6.50 6.30
Hong Kong na na na na na Hong Kong 7.80 7.80 7.78 7.75 7.78
Taiwan 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Taiwan 30.9 31.0 30.5 29.5 30.5
Korea 5.0 5.0 4.75 4.5 4.5 Korea 1047.0 1050.0 1100.0 1075.0 1075.0
India 7.75 8.0 8.25 8.25 8.25 India 42.2 41.5 40.5 39.5 40.5
Page 87
Industry Focus
Regional REIT Handbook
In Feb 08, Champion REIT proposed to acquire Langham Place UOB Apartment Fund I (UOBAPF) plan to dispose its leasehold
Mall, Office Towers and Carparks in Mongkok from its major interest in Natural Ville Residence, a serviced apartment in Soi
shareholder Great Eagle for HK$12.5bn Langsuan, return the proceeds to unit-holders and dissolve the
fund. It has recently assigned a property consultant to assist in
Malaysia the disposition process. The main reasons for the Fund’s
Sunway City Bhd is on track to list the country’s first integrated decision to dispose the asset are the extremely low trading
resort REIT in 2008 worth RM3.7bn, but is still undecided liquidity on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the unit
between listing in Malaysia or Singapore. price (Bt8.20), which is now trading at a deep discount to its
NAV at Bt10.74 as of 31 Mar 2008.
Capitaland aims to launch a new Malaysian retail REIT in 2008.
It has acquired two retail assets in Malaysia - Gurney Plaza in TMB Asset Management (TMBAM) plans to launch the initial
Penang (RM336.8m) and Mines Shopping Fair in Selangor public offering units of Luxury Property Fund (LUXF) from 7-15
(RM190.3m). May 2008. The fund, with an estimated fund size of
Bt1.965bn will invest in “Six Senses Hideaway” project, a
In Jan 08, QCT proposed to acquire three assets for RM94.5m freehold luxury 5-star resort on Koh Yaonoi, Pang-nga
from Quill Land Sdn Bhd - Quill Building 5-IBM (RM43.0m), a province. The fund will guarantee dividend yields for the first
five-storey property located in Cyberjaya; Quill Building 8-DHL five years at 6.0% in year 1, 6.5% in year 2, and 7.0% in year
(RM28.8m), a three-storey property sited at Shah Alam and 3-5, respectively.
Quill Building 10-HSBC (RM22.7m), a four-storey property
located in Section 13, Petaling Jaya.
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Property News Snippets CIMB Mapletree Management Sdn Bhd, a joint venture
Singapore between CIMB Group and Mapletree, a leading real estate
URA plans to double the size of Singapore's Marina Bay company in Singapore, is targeting to set up RM4.7b to RM5b
financial district to 2.82m sm or 2x the size of London's Canary property fund early 2009.
Wharf financial district. (BT – 13 Mar)
Property developer Petaling Tin Bhd plans to spend some
ARA Asset Management has bought the remaining 53 units at RM1bn to build luxury villas and a boutique hotel on
Grange Infinite freehold condo project for almost $400 million Karambunai Peninsular, 30km east of Kota Kinabalu in Sabah.
or at $2,600-$2,700 psf.
Mar 08 Property developer UEM Land Sdn Bhd is in talks with
SINGAPORE'S retail sales in January rose 7.8% yoy. Retail sales Singapore real estate firms about joint projects in a US$105b
rose just 1.5%, adjusted for inflation. Excluding motor vehicles, (about RM332b) industrial and tourism zone in south Malaysia.
retail sales in January were 15.1% higher. The strongest
increases were seen in sales of petrol, food and beverages, and Thailand
at department stores and supermarkets. (BT – 15 Mar) The Thai cabinet recently agreed with the Ministry of Finance’s
proposed property-related tax cuts to boost the economy.
CWT will invest more than $80m in two new integrated These include (i) reduction in specific business tax from 3.3%
logistics hubs at Tanjong Penjuru with 850000sf of warehouse to 0.1%, (ii) reduction in transfer fees from 2% to 0.01%, (iii)
space for the handling of hazardous and chemical goods. reduction in mortgage registration fees from 1% to 0.1%.
These measures will be effective for one year from 29 Mar
SINGAPORE has risen two notches to become the 12th most 2008 to 28 Mar 2009.
expensive industrial location in the world. Excluding Japan,
Singapore is the most expensive location in Asia, surpassing According to the Bank of Thailand, retail sales index surged
Hong Kong (23rd), Mumbai (26th) and Taipei (36th). Average 12.1% y-o-y in Jan 2008. This is very encouraging considering
net rents are now at $1.70 psf/mth, up 26% yoy last year. the 0.4% and 2.1% growth in 2006 and 2007, respectively.
Total occupancy cost was US$14.64 psf/yr at end-Dec 2007. The strong retail sales reflected the rebounding consumer
confidence after the general election and the new government
URA Property Price Index recorded a 3.7% rise in 1Q08. is in place.
However transaction volumes for new sales fell to 730 units.
With political tension rising again as the three coalition parties
Hong Kong are facing the risks of possible dissolution and constitution
In Feb/Mar 08, the launch of Cheung Kong’s Capitol in Tseung amendment under way. We believe political development is
Kwan O was well received with all of 2096 units completely what investors need to monitor closely as it will have a
pre-sold within a short period of time substantial impact on consumer and business confidence and
thus the retail sales number.
In May 08, Deutsche Bank agreed to take up 12 floors totaling
420,000sf at SHKP’s Intl Commerce Centre at Kowloon MTR Suzuki Motor Corporation, a leading car manufacturer has
Station and has an option to lease up to 18 floors signed an agreement with Hemaraj Land And Development
Plc., to purchase land of 412 rai at Hemaraj Eastern Seaboard
Industrial enbloc transactions totalled 1.35msf valued at Industrial Estate or the Detroit of the East II. The land will be
HK$1.98b in 1Q08. Notable transactions include Piazza used for the construction of Suzuki’s BOI promoted Eco-car
Industrial Building, sold at HK600m or HK$1470psf and manufacturing and CKD kit assembly plant, scheduled to
Oriental News Building at HK$525m or HK$1684psf. commence operation in 2010. Total value of investment is
Bt9.5bn.
Total value of retail sales in Feb 08 was estimated at HK$22.8b,
up 9.5% yoy. Amata Corporation (AMATA) has recently signed an
agreement to sell 90-rai land at Amata Nakorn Industrial Estate
Trade Square in Cheung Sha Wan was sold for HK1.518b or to Mitsubishi Turbocharger Asia (MTA) for the construction of
HK$4000psf (excluding car park spaces) in Apr 08. its plant to produce turbocharger for the automotive industry.
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Malaysia
Axis Axis REIT Managers Axis Development Max of 1% of None 0.05% of NAV Graduated scale fees 1%
Bhd Sdn Bhd NAV 0.5%
Quill Capita Quill Capita Mgmt Quill Resources 0.4% of GAV 3% of net investment 0.021% 5% (gross rental inc 1% 0.5%
Sdn Bhd Hldgs Sdn Bhd, inc <RM30k, 3% (gross rental
Capitaland RECM inc <RM100k, 2% (gross
Pte Ltd, Coast rental inc >RM100k)
Capital Sdn Bhd
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Regional
Timothy Wong Head, Regional Equity Research timothywongkc@dbsvickers.com
Joanne Goh Regional Equity Strategist Joanne gohsc@dbs.com
Indonesia
Agus Pramono, CFA Strategy, Banking, Consumer , agus.pramono@id.dbsvickers.com
Automotive
Yusuf Ade Winoto, CFA Basic Materials, Oil, Gas & Energy yusuf.winoto id.dbsvickers.com
Andrey Wijaya Consumer, Property andrey.wijaya@id.dbsvickes.com
Devianita Tjandera Generalist devianita@id.dbsvickers.com
Ong Boon Leong, CFA Telecommunications boonleong@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Malaysia
Wong Ming Tek Head of Research, Strategy mingtek@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Construction, Concessionaires
Goh Yin Foo CFA Retail/ Technical Product yinfoo@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Lim Sue Lin Banking suelin@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Ong Boon Leong CFA Motor, Telecommunications, Technology Services boonleong@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
June Ng Power, Oil & Gas, Conglomerates, REITs june@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Ben Santoso Plantation bensantoso@dbsvickers.com
Azida Nor Azizi Steel azida@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Kok Chiew Sia Consumer, IPO/ Retail Product chiewsia@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Juliana Ramli Shipping, Logistic, Manufacturing, Plantation juliana@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Iman Zaman Manufacturing iman@hwangdbsvickers.com.my
Singapore
Janice Chua Head of Research, Strategy, Industrials janicechua@dbsvickers.com
Jesvinder Sandhu Dy Head of Research, Industrials jesvinder@dbsvickers.com
Chong Wee Lee, CFA Industrials weelee@dbsvickers.com
Lock Mun Yee Property munyee@dbsvickers.com
Jeremy Thia Industrials, Property jeremythia@dbsvickers.com
Paul Yong, CFA Consumer paulyong@dbsvickers.com
Andy Sim, CFA Consumer andysim@dbsvickers.com
Tan Ai Teng Electronics aiteng@dbsvickers.com
Ho Pei Hwa Electronics peihwa@dbsvickers.com
Sachin Mittal Electronics, Telecom sachin@dbsvickers.com
Ben Santoso Plantations bensantoso@dbsvickers.com
Yeo Kee Yan Trader Spectrum keeyan@dbsvickers.com
Ling Lee Keng Trader Spectrum leekeng@dbsvickers.com
Thailand
Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul Head of Research chanpens@th.dbsvickers.com
Property, Transportation
Chirasit Vuttigrai Telecoms, Entertainment chirasitv@th.dbsvickers.com
Vichitr Kuladejkhuna CFA Building Materials, Energy (Oil& Gas), vichitrk@th.dbsvickers.com
Petrochemicals, Chemicals, Energy (electricity)
Sugittra Kongkhajornkidsuk Banks, Securities sugittrak@th.dbsvickers.com
Parin Kitchatornpitak Automotive, Commerce, Electronics parink@th.dbsvickers.com
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