Professional Documents
Culture Documents
X January 2016
Strategy
Saudi Arabia
Jul-15
2015
2016
2017
3.4
2.2
2.9
20,139 20,093 21,269
31.4
32.0
32.7
2.1
2.3
2.9
-3.5
-4.7
-1.9
-21.6
-19.4
-17.6
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
3000
SASEIDX
18
Frontier
16
2500
14
2000
12
1500
10
1000
Cons.
Staples
Cons. Disc.
90
Utilities
70
Industrials
60
Jan-16
Dec-15
80
Nov-15
29%
100
Oct-15
48%
Sep-15
9%
110
Aug-15
Telecoms
2017
120
Jul-15
Materials
2016
Jun-15
3%
Apr-15
Financials
Mar-15
6%
2015
130
0%
2%
Feb-15
3%
May-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
500
Jan-15
3500
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
115
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 543: Index and stock data
Ticker
MXSAD
RJHI AB
SABIC AB
NCB AB
STC AB
SAMBA AB
BSFR AB
ALINMA AB
SAVOLA AB
ALMARAI AB
MAADEN AB
RIBL AB
SECO AB
EEC AB
SAFCO AB
SABB AB
YANSAB AB
ARNB AB
JARIR AB
SACCO AB
ALTAYYAR AB
APPC AB
EMAAR AB
ALBI AB
ALARKAN AB
SOCCO AB
KAYAN AB
BUPA AB
AAAL AB
YACCO AB
SIIG AB
BJAZ AB
SIBC AB
YNCCO AB
SPC AB
QACCO AB
NIC AB
SIPCHEM AB
ALHOKAIR AB
CATERING AB
SGS AB
KINGDOM AB
PETROR AB
ZAINKSA AB
PETROCH AB
JOMAR AB
NSCSA AB
MCDCO AB
ARCCO AB
TAWUNIYA AB
TIRECO AB
SCCO AB
MOUWASAT AB
SPIMACO AB
AOTHAIM AB
EACCO AB
ADCO AB
Bloomberg
Name
MSCI Saudi Arabia
Al Rajhi Bank
Sabic
National Comm
Saudi Telecom Co
Samba
Banque Saudi Fr
Alinma Bank
Savola
Almarai Co
Saudi Arabian Mi
Riyad Bank
Saudi Electricit
Etihad Etisalat
Saudi Arabian Fe
Saudi British Bk
Yanbu National P
Arab Natl Bank
Jarir Marketing
Saudi Cement
Al Tayyar Travel
Advanced Petroch
Emaar Economic C
Bank Albilad
Dar Al Arkan Rea
Southern Provinc
Saudi Kayan Petr
Bupa Arabia
Saudi Hollandi
Yamama Cement Co
Saudi Ind Invest
Bank Al-Jazira
Saudi Investment
Yanbu Cement Co
Sahara Petrochem
Qassim Cement
Nic
Saudi Internatio
Fawaz Abdulaziz
Saudi Airlines C
Saudi Ground Ser
Kingdom Holding
Rabigh Refining
Mobile Telecommu
National Petroch
Jabal Omar Devel
National Shippin
Makkah Construct
Arabian Cement
Co For Cooperati
Taiba Holding C
Saudi Chemical C
Mouwasat Medical
Saudi Pharmaceut
Abdullah Al Otha
Eastern Cement
Arriyadh Develop
Sector
Financials
Materials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Materials
Financials
Utilities
Telecoms
Materials
Financials
Materials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Materials
Materials
Industrials
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Energy
Telecoms
Materials
Financials
Energy
Financials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Healthcare
Healthcare
Cons. Staples
Materials
Financials
3MADTV
($mn)
784.1
44.4
168.0
7.6
11.4
4.4
1.1
238.7
6.9
7.6
29.5
2.8
7.4
11.9
4.9
1.8
4.8
1.7
4.6
1.9
24.2
8.0
33.4
5.5
38.2
0.8
18.9
9.0
1.5
2.6
4.5
13.6
0.7
2.3
6.0
1.1
4.9
3.1
3.8
6.0
8.6
5.6
8.7
6.6
2.7
9.6
31.0
2.6
4.0
6.3
1.6
3.9
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
5.4
$ Performance
12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
1M
3M
12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
-14.2
-16.8
-31.5
10.5
1.3
10.9
440
-8.5
-6.7
-15.1
10.7
1.7
15.5
13
13.6
-12.3
-17.2
-20.5
13.1
1.3
9.5
17
11.9
-22.1
-25.9
-32.5
8.2
1.6
18.8
10
7.4
-10.2
-6.3
-8.9
10.2
2.0
18.0
17
5.6
-13.0
-13.2
-28.0
7.5
1.0
11.8
16
5.0
-9.9
-14.1
-29.7
7.3
1.0
13.1
13
3.4
-11.3
-10.5
-38.1
11.2
1.1
10.2
8
3.3
-16.7
-21.3
-48.7
12.3
2.1
17.1
12
3.1
-13.4
-14.4
-19.7
18.4
3.3
18.2
20
2.8
-14.0
-1.7
-19.2
25.0
1.3
4.1
11
2.8
-7.5
-14.1
-35.7
7.8
0.9
11.1
12
2.7
-10.8
-17.3
-10.0
17.3
1.0
5.4
4
2.7
-16.8
-16.5
-36.7
62.2
1.2
4.3
12
2.7
-20.5
-19.5
-42.6
11.8
3.7
30.0
19
2.6
-6.5
-17.4
-39.8
7.1
1.2
15.4
12
2.3
-0.4
-21.8
-30.5
13.5
1.2
8.3
17
1.7
-14.0
-27.3
-41.6
5.9
0.9
14.0
12
1.6
-17.7
-19.0
-31.8
12.4
7.9
57.9
20
1.5
-23.5
-22.7
-49.0
8.6
2.4
26.7
13
1.4
-33.3
-26.6
-53.9
7.3
2.4
34.6
6
1.3
-2.9
-22.6
-20.7
10.0
2.4
23.3
13
1.3
-1.4
33.1
-13.7
11.4
1.3
7.9
2
1.3
-13.2
-4.1
-42.5
10.1
1.7
13.7
5
1.2
-20.5
-24.2
-51.6
10.0
0.3
2.5
9
1.2
-5.1
-9.5
-36.7
10.3
2.9
27.6
9
1.1
-32.1
-43.3
-60.4 135.3
0.6
-1.6
10
1.1
7.6
-0.6
40.6
15.1
5.5
33.3
2
1.1
-8.6
-5.9
-31.7
7.1
1.3
16.1
6
1.1
-16.2
-24.8
-45.3
9.5
1.5
15.4
12
1.0
-15.6
-29.1
-52.2
6.2
0.8
11.5
8
1.0
-25.7
-30.7
-55.4
7.0
0.7
8.0
5
1.0
-8.7
-13.9
-37.3
7.2
0.9
10.6
3
0.9
-10.9
-16.2
-44.6
8.8
1.7
17.8
13
0.9
-24.4
-34.2
-52.8
10.9
0.6
5.7
8
0.7
-13.5
-16.1
-32.4
11.6
3.0
24.1
9
0.7
-23.0
-31.7
-68.8
9.8
0.7
5.9
10
0.7
-24.6
-37.8
-63.0
7.3
0.7
7.6
10
0.7
-39.6
-30.6
-50.6
9.2
3.6
34.0
13
0.7
-19.8
-16.8
-46.7
11.2
6.2
52.1
9
0.6
-15.1
-31.3
-21.9
9.6
2.7
na
1
0.5
-30.0
-34.9
-37.9
na
1.5
na
1
0.5
-27.0
-35.4
-51.6
26.6
1.0
3.6
2
0.5
-31.0
-34.7
-55.7
na
0.7
-16.1
7
0.4
-20.1
-32.7
-42.0
8.5
1.2
12.2
9
0.3
-8.4
-17.3
-11.9
18.4
4.9
21.2
2
-15.9
-10.6
2.8
na
1.7
na
1
-5.9
23.9
5.1
na
1.6
na
0
-12.5
-13.4
-45.6
8.2
1.4
14.1
5
-7.1
-11.6
2.0
12.2
3.0
na
1
-5.6
-1.6
-19.7
na
1.3
na
1
-12.1
-13.5
-14.1
na
2.0
na
0
-6.9
-5.1
-12.4
18.9
4.8
22.4
12
-12.4
-16.9
-30.9
11.0
1.3
9.1
3
-5.8
-10.7
-24.9
14.5
3.7
22.3
14
-13.1
-18.8
-53.1
8.9
1.0
11.5
5
-4.1
-5.6
-25.3
12.4
1.2
10.2
1
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg
116
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 544: Population, '000
30,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.14
25,000
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.12
0.1
20,000
0.08
15,000
0.06
10,000
0.04
5,000
0.02
France
Taiwan
Singapore
India
Euro Area
Korea
EU
USA
China
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Japan
0
0
Source: UN
Figure 546: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP
CPI (average % YoY)
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
30
2004
SAR vs $
7
SAR vs EUR
Weaker
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Source: IMF
Figure 548: Bank lending growth vs GDP
150
14
140
Stronger
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Source: IMF
Figure 547: Saudi Arabia - riyal
12
12
10
10
10.0
8.6
7.3
-4000
5.6
-2000
8.4
6.0
5.4
4.8
2.7
3.5 3.4
2.2
1.8
-6000
-8000
2.9 3.0
-10000
-12000
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015E
Source: IMF
2004
-2
Source: IMF
117
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 550: CPI, %YoY
CPI, % YoY
4.5
50%
40%
3.5
3
30%
2.5
20%
2
1.5
10%
0%
0.5
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
-10%
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: IMF
Figure 552: Manufacturing PMI
65
800,000
700,000
60
600,000
500,000
55
400,000
50
300,000
200,000
45
100,000
Dec-15
May-15
Oct-14
Mar-14
Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg
Aug-13
Jun-12
Apr-11
Nov-11
Sep-10
Jul-09
Feb-10
Dec-08
Oct-07
May-08
Mar-07
Aug-06
Jan-06
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
40
Source: Bloomberg
erg, Bruegel
Figure 554: Trade balance
700
650
-2000
600
-4000
550
-6000
500
450
-8000
400
-10000
350
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
Feb-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Jan-13
Mar-12
Aug-12
Oct-11
May-11
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
300
Apr-09
-12000
Source: Bloomberg
Source: IMF
118