Charles E. Cook Jr.

The End of Politics?

Looking Beyond the Election

T hose hoping for resolution and relief from politics and political
strife after the election may be distressed to find that November 7 was more
likely to have marked halftime than the end of the game. In fact, Washing-
ton in 2001 and 2002 may well be the most politically interesting and tu-
multuous time in many years.
Months before the actual election returns were tabulated, certain
things were clear. Politics after Bill Clinton would still be characterized by
stalemates, bloodletting, power struggles, and, finally, a volatile election in
2002 that might actually resolve the deadlock caused by two evenly
matched parties.
In the wake of the 2000 election, bold policy initiatives and real accom-
plishments in the 107th Congress are highly unlikely. The undoubtedly ra-
zor-thin majority for either side means that effective control does not exist
in the House. There is a majority party in technical terms, but, practically
speaking, it will not be able to accomplish much.
The most hotly contested presidential campaign in two decades also
means a new president inaugurated without a popular mandate—the moral
and political authority that accompanies an electoral victory of larger pro-
portions. When a popular mandate exists, the party that loses the presiden-
tial election by a relatively wide margin finds itself intimidated by the
victorious party. In the course of action in early battles on key legislative is-
sues in the new session of Congress, its members are easily stampeded into
defections. That will not be the case in the 107th Congress.

Charles E. Cook Jr. writes weekly columns for the National Journal magazine and
CongressDaily AM, published by the National Journal Group. He is a political analyst
for CNN and the editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based,
nonpartisan newsletter analyzing U.S. politics and elections.

Copyright © 2000 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Washington Quarterly • 24:1 pp. 239–241.

T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ WINTER 2001 239

 l Charles E. Cook Jr.

This combination of minuscule congressional majorities and a president

elected by a narrow majority is a prescription for stalemate. Neither side is
likely to try to enact bold changes, whether it be big domestic spending
packages by Democrats or substantial Pentagon spending increases and deep
tax cuts by Republicans. That could be good news for deficit hawks hoping
to avoid both.
Then there will be the inevitable bloodletting and power struggles. The
political vacuum created among the “losers” will continue to keep Washing-
ton entertained for months. That rumor mill
will die down, but political chatter will not
fade. It is very likely that we will see a large
2 001-02 may well be number of retirements in early 2001 because
the most politically the members of the minority party will have
interesting and good reason to feel dispirited. Either Demo-
crats will likely be giving up hope after three
tumultuous time in
close, but ultimately unsuccessful, attempts
many years. to recapture control; or Republicans, who
have seen the promised land, will be wary of
going back to the hell of minority govern-
ment. Acrimony and finger pointing may
well accompany a loss in this fight for control, and leadership challenges,
resignations, or retirements will follow.
For example, if the Democrats have come up short yet again, many do
not expect House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) to hang around.
For Gephardt, it is likely to be up or out, with a fight between other Demo-
crats to replace him if he leaves. If the Republicans have lost the House, a
fight will surely be in the offing as they handle the necessary downsizing of
their leadership in addition to the heads that will roll as blame is assigned.
The same is true in the fight for the White House. If the Republicans
have lost the third straight presidential race for the first time since 1940,
there will be a great struggle in the GOP over the future direction of the
party. Conservatives will argue that 1996 Republican nominee Robert Dole
and 2000 nominee George W. Bush were too secular and not sufficiently
conservative. More moderate mainstreamers will blame strategic or tactical
decisions or the individual candidate’s shortcomings. If the Democrats have
lost the White House, some in the labor sector will almost surely blame the
role of the free-trade policies of the Clinton-Gore administration for dimin-
ishing enthusiasm among union members. Environmentalists and other lib-
erals, in turn, will say that the Clinton-Gore administration stayed too
much in the middle after its cataclysmic 1994 election loss. Others will
surely blame Gore and his campaign specifically.

240 T HE W ASHINGTON Q UARTERLY ■ WINTER 2001

 The End of Politics? l

Death, taxes, and contentious politics will, in fact, continue even after
Clinton leaves the scene. Following an acrimonious 2001-02 Congress, there
will be an equally contentious 2002 election. The new president will be
seeking a Congress more willing to implement his agenda than the stale-
mated Congress that he inherited. Plus, there is also the possibility of a re-
cession or political fallout from presidential missteps that often occur in the
first two years of a presidency. In the House, redistricting and many likely
retirements will increase volatility. In the Senate, where 20 Republican and
only 13 Democratic seats are up for grabs in 2002, the GOP will be particu-
larly vulnerable.
In both the House and the Senate, congressional leaders of the
president’s party must also hope that the administration does not cannibal-
ize their congressional ranks for executive and judicial branch nominations.
If that happens, those congressional leaders will benefit if the new adminis-
tration picks only those from “safe states” or, in the case of senators, those
in states with same-party governors making the replacement appointments.
Republicans will also be challenged to maintain their pre-2000 election
number of 30 governors. In 2002, they will have eight open governorships
compared with only four for the Democrats, with Republicans seeking to
hold onto their substantial 1994 gains—that is, those who were reelected in
1998.
In short, do not expect peace and quiet after this election. The stakes are
too high and the margins too slim for things to stay quiet for long.

T HE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY ■ WINTER 2001 241