Agriculture and Chemical Menu. by JPM

North America Equity Research
27 July 2015
Agriculture and Chemical Menu

The Week in Chemicals - 7/27/15
The S&P Averages retreated (2.2%) this week, and the Chemical and
Agricultural companies were broadly routed; the more cyclical the equity, the
larger the price decrease. The stalwarts for the week, if they can be termed so,
were Sherwin-Williams up 0.4%, Scotts Miracle-Gro, which edged lower by (0.6%),
Valspar off (1.2%) and IFF, which gave back (1.4%). Oil prices moved lower and
took the petrochemicals down with them. Dow Chemical fell (10.2%) despite
reporting far stronger than expected 2Q:15 EPS; LyondellBasell was (7.3%) lower;
Westlake fell (6.3%); and Eastman receded (5.9%). Lower oil prices did little for
PPG, off (7.6%) and for Axalta, which declined (3.2%). Agriculture was hit hard by
stable-to-improving crop conditions: CF fell (11.7%); Potash Corp by (5.4%);
Mosaic by (5.2%); Agrium by (4.7%); and Monsanto by (3.9%). Smaller
capitalization specialties that had shown recent strength gave up ground: Ferro was
off (5.7%) and Albemarle by (6.0%) and is now back below $50/sh. Titanium
dioxide companies, needless to say, struggled: Huntsman was (8.4%) lower and
Chemours was this weeks weakest performer, down (13.3%).
We expect lower and better entry points from the Chemical companies this
earnings season. The share prices of chemical companies, for the past two years,
tended to rise whether news was good or bad, and now the share prices tend to go
down whether news is good or bad, which is probably a reflection on the general
relative trading multiples of the chemical companies. There is no longer an element
of prospective new activist activity that would make a difference. There is no sense
of rising trading multiples and some sense of falling trading multiples. The chemical
companies thought to be non-cyclical are decidedly outperforming companies
perceived as cyclical. Investors have observed CE, PPG, DOW, and SHW report
decent-to-excellent 2Q:15 EPS and then fall in value, and now simply want to stay
clear of anything chemical, and certainly wish to reduce exposures going into any
new print. There is no confidence that holding a chemical company into a positive
print will make a positive difference. Lower oil prices near-term are weighing on the
commodity chemical companies and weak demand numbers on the specialties. The
specialties have run in price so far over the past two years that they do not fall into
the value category when they give up ground. Investors have wanted a larger raw
material benefit from the coatings companies that they have yet to receive, and so
are to a degree dissatisfied with the group. That said, the earnings of the reporting
chemical companies, generally speaking, are for the most part stronger than one
would have expected from a profit standpoint and weaker than one might have
thought from a demand standpoint. Chemical earnings estimates are mostly rising
on the margin.
Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity

and Agricultural
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas
AC
(1-212) 622-6644
jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA ZEKAUSKAS <GO>
Silke Kueck
(1-212) 622-6503
silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com
Ben Richardson
(1-212) 622-6455
ben.richardson@jpmorgan.com
Youyou Yan
(1-212) 622-4951
youyou.yan@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Table of Contents
I. Commodity Chemicals
Table 1: Ethane-based Ethylene Margin
Table 2: Commodity Chemical Pricing
Table 3: Chemicals & Feedstock Pricing
II. Railcars
Table 4: Chemical Railcar Shipments
III. Crude Oil Crack Spreads
Table 5: Global Crude Oil Pricing & Spreads
IV. Agricultural Chemicals & Crop Pricing
Table 6: Fertilizer, Feedstock & Crop Prices
Table 7: U.S. Crop Prices
Table 8: U.S. Crop Conditions
Table 9: U.S. Crop Budgets
Figure 1: N. American Fertilizer Inventories
Table 10: Chinese Fertilizer Tariff Schedule
Chart 1: Chinese Glyphosate Price
V. Currencies
Table 11: Global Currencies
VI. Chemicals Stock Performance
Table 12: Weekly Pricing Table
Economics: Existing U.S. home sales lifted 3.2% m/m to 5.49m units annualized in
June. New U.S. home sales fell (6.8%) m/m to 0.482m units annualized in June. The
U.S. Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a leading indicator of construction activity,
increased to 55.7 in June versus 51.9 in May and 48.8 in April. The Markit U.S.
Manufacturing PMI inched higher from 53.6 in May to 53.8 in June.
The Brent price (COA Commodity) decreased from $57.10/bbl to $54.62/bbl.
Henry Hub gas moved slightly lower from $2.84/mmBtu to $2.82/mmBtu.
Chemical Railcar shipments increased 1.1% for the week. July shipments are 0.7%
higher y/y, and year-to-date shipments are 0.4% better.
See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
(1-212) 622-6644

27 July 2015
The bulk of 2Q earnings are to be reported this week: On Monday, RPM has its
earnings call at 10:00 a.m. (dial: 888-771-4371); JPM est. $0.85; Street est. $0.83. On
Tuesday, EMN has an earnings call at 8:00 a.m. (dial: 913-312-0934, ID 1077297); JPM
est. $1.78; Street est. $1.83. The DD call is at 9:00 a.m. (dial: 847-413-3538, ID
7613839); JPM est. $1.23; Street est. $1.22. The CMP call is also at 9:00 a.m. (dial: 877614-0009, ID 1706826); JPM est. $0.33; Street est. $0.30. LYB will host its call at 11:00
a.m. (dial: 888-677-1826, ID 4843334); JPM est. $2.37; Street est. $2.72. ECL has an
earnings call at 1:00 p.m. (contact ECL at 651-293-2233); JPM est. $1.10; Street est.
$1.08. On Wednesday, AVY has its earnings call at 10:00 a.m. (dial: 800-891-3472); JPM
est. $0.92; Street est. $0.88. The HUN call is also at 10:00 a.m. (dial: 888-713-4211, ID
43780722); Street est. $0.55. PX will host its call at 11:00 a.m. (dial: 631-485-4849, ID
72624899); JPM est. $1.53; Street est. $1.46. On Thursday, ASH has its earnings call at
9:00 a.m. (dial: 877-303-6152, ID 75975407); JPM est. $1.76; Street est. $1.75. APD has
an earnings call at 10:00 a.m. (dial: 888-500-6974, ID 1083893); JPM est. $1.55; Street
est. $1.58. The FOE call is also at 10:00 a.m. (dial: 800-940-2599); Street est. $0.25.
POT will host its call at 1:00 p.m. (dial: 855-327-6838); JPM est. $0.55; Street est. $0.52.
Switching seats: Matthew Trerotola (prev. EVP at DuPont overseeing its Safety &
Protection division, Electronics & Communications business, and Asia Pacific region) is
leaving DuPont to become CEO of Colfax. Marc Doyle was named SVP of the Safety &
Protection division at DuPont; James Collins, of Industrial Biosciences and Performance
Materials, will assume oversight of the Electronics & Communications business; and
Douglas Muzyka, SVP and Chief Science & Technology Officer, assumes responsibility
for the Asia Pacific region. Chris Jensen was named CFO at Celanese, a role he has been
filling on an interim basis since May 2014. Minerals Technologies appointed W. Rand
Mendez (prev. Corporate Marketing Director at DuPont) as SVP and Managing Director
of its Paper PCC business. Axalta named David Grimes (prev. Performance Materials
Business Director at BASF) to the newly created role of Global VP of its Automotive
Plastic Components (APC) business. RPM International appointed Kenneth Armstrong to
VP of Environmental, Health & Safety; Tracy Crandall to VP, Associate General Counsel
and Assistant Secretary; and Melissa Schoger to VP of Planning & Financial analysis.
Investimus Foris plans to invest $265m to convert an idle biofuels refinery to an
ammonia manufacturing facility in Grant Parish, Louisiana. The Lithuania-based
company plans to purchase the assets from the former Vanguard Synfuels refinery as the
site for its new facility. The plant is designed to produce 500,000 st/year ammonia for the
northern U.S. market and potentially for exports. The project is expected to be completed
in late 2018.
The weather in key corn growing regions continues to improve, and corn crop
conditions are unchanged for a third week in succession. As of the week ending July
19, 69% of U.S. corn was in good or excellent condition (compared to 76% last year), and
31% was in fair or poor condition (compared to 24% a year ago).
Potash: Domestic potash barge prices slipped (~$5/st) this week to a range of $305-310/st
fob NOLA. Corn Belt prices are trending lower at about $340/st, and below the producers
summer fill price of $355/st. Brazil potash prices are under pressure with August tons
being offered at $320-325/mt cfr and buyers indicating interest at $310-$320/mt cfr. In
India, potash imports are (32%) lower y/y for the April-June period at 669 kt, which could
be a timing issue. About 700 kt of potash are to arrive in India in July. In China, potash
imports are (2%) lower YTD through June at 3.87m tons. Canadian and Belarusian potash
shipments to China grew 67% and 50% to 1.19m tons and 0.99m tons, respectively. By
contrast, Russian and Israeli potash shipments to China slipped (8%) and (81%) to 0.95m
tons and 0.18m tons, respectively.
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27 July 2015
Phosphate: The general pattern over the past month has been a slowly eroding price in
South America stemming from weak demand and general price stability elsewhere.
Phosphate prices still continue to edge lower in Brazil. Brazilian MAP is close to $470/t
cfr. There is talk that higher prices in Brazil are needed for OCP to ship to Brazil in size.
There is some firming domestically with some barges at $430-$440/st up from $420/st.
India is taking material at $465/t fob and landed prices are near to $480/t in the US Gulf.
Indian demand is reasonably strong. Indian DAP imports in June were 1.1m tons and DAP
imports from April to June 2015 are 2.55m tons, which is more than double the shipments
of the year-ago period. China has been a key beneficiary of the Indian phosphate demand
strength. DAP exports YTD from China through June are 2.8m tons, more than double last
years total. DAP raw materials are generally stable with little movement in ammonia and
sulfur prices.
Nitrogen: Prices for granular urea in Nola edged higher by a couple of dollars to just
under $290/st fob. China prills are quoted at $280/t fob but little business is being
transacted at such levels: ideas are closer to $265/t for August and September with the
price direction lower. January through June global exports from China were 6.7m tons up
62% from the same period in 2014. China urea exports over the 12 months ending June
2015 were 16.2m tons. Black Sea ammonia is unchanged at just under $390/t as it has
been for most of July. There are more bullish feelings about ammonia for September due
to prospective gas curtailments in Trinidad that could amount to more than 25% of
Trinidad production for later in September and into October. Year to date ammonia
imports from Trinidad to the US have been about 5% higher. UAN pricing is decidedly
soft. Some sources maintain Nola prices are just above $210/st; others claim that some
barges are indicated closer to $200/st. Black Sea and Egyptian UAN prices each look
about $10/t lower from last week between $180-$190/t fob.
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27 July 2015
Commodity Chemicals
Table 1: Ethane-based Ethylene Margin
2015 YTD
Week 3 Jul
Week 2 Jul
Week 1 Jul
2Q:15
Jun-15
May-15
1Q:15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
2014
4Q:14
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
3Q:14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
2Q:14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
1Q:14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
2013
Ethane Price
(cents/gal)
18.44
19.00
18.63
18.25
18.27
18.68
18.97
18.62
18.33
18.33
19.19
26.81
20.82
17.53
22.37
22.56
23.65
23.36
22.83
24.75
29.03
29.00
28.66
29.44
33.74
30.08
38.69
32.44
25.83
Ethylene contract Price

(cents/lb)
34.43
33.00
33.00
33.00
34.58
33.75
35.50
34.75
34.25
34.75
35.25
48.02
44.77
38.30
45.50
50.50
51.77
54.50
51.30
49.50
47.18
47.75
47.00
46.80
48.35
45.30
49.50
50.25
46.63
Ethane-based Ethylene
Margin (cents/lb)
26.43
24.75
24.92
25.08
26.66
25.64
27.27
26.67
26.29
26.80
26.92
36.38
35.73
30.69
35.79
40.71
41.50
44.36
41.39
38.76
34.58
35.16
34.56
34.02
33.71
32.24
32.71
36.17
35.42
Monthly Average Ethane-based Ethylene Margin (cents/lb)
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Source: IHS Chemical, Bloomberg, and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Ethane-based ethylene margin is calculated as: ethylene contract price-0.434*ethane spot price. Wkly prices as of end of the week.
Table 2: U.S. Commodity Chemical Contract Pricing

Ethylene, Contract
2014
2015
$0.503
$0.353
$0.495
$0.348
$0.453
$0.343
$0.468
$0.343
$0.470
$0.345
$0.475
$0.338
$0.495
$0.330e
$0.515
$0.545
$0.505
$0.455
$0.383
Titanium Dioxide (TiO2)**
2014
2015
$3,567
$2,963
$3,470
$2,871
$3,472
$2,748
$3,469
$2,678
$3,408
$2,686
$3,396
$2,693
$3,388
$2,677e
$3,368
$3,202
$3,065
$3,041
$3,032
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Propylene*
2014
2015
$0.730
$0.480
$0.720
$0.490
$0.705
$0.475
$0.695
$0.415
$0.690
$0.405
$0.660
$0.385
$0.660
$0.365
$0.710
$0.710
$0.750
$0.700
$0.600
PET Resin
2014
2015
$0.803
$0.675
$0.775
$0.660
$0.765
$0.680
$0.800
$0.713
$0.800
$0.750
$0.820
$0.770
$0.850
$0.780e
$0.865
$0.848
$0.823
$0.755
$0.725
Butadiene
2014
2015
$0.553
$0.373
$0.607
$0.291
$0.695
$0.291
$0.695
$0.293
$0.695
$0.300
$0.666
$0.350
$0.633
$0.413e
$0.609
$0.569
$0.549
$0.463
$0.433
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
2014
2015
$0.73
$0.74
$0.76
$0.74
$0.79
$0.77
$0.79
$0.77
$0.79
$0.77
$0.79
$0.77
$0.79
$0.77e
$0.79
$0.81
$0.81
$0.79
$0.76
High-Density PE (HDPE)
2014
2015
$0.815
$0.775
$0.855
$0.725
$0.855
$0.725
$0.855
$0.725
$0.855
$0.775
$0.855
$0.775
$0.855
$0.775e
$0.855
$0.885
$0.885
$0.855
$0.815
Caustic Soda***
2014
2015
$390
$360
$380
$350
$410
$330
$420
$330
$420
$330
$420
$320
$410
$370
$360
$350
$370
$370
Polypropylene (PP)
2014
2015
$0.960
$0.730
$0.950
$0.740
$0.935
$0.725
$0.925
$0.685
$0.920
$0.675
$0.890
$0.685
$0.890
$0.670e
$0.940
$0.940
$0.980
$0.930
$0.835
Chlorine***
2014
2015
$150
$150
$140
$150
$140
$150
$140
$150
$140
$160
$150
$160
$150
$150
$150
$150
$150
$150
Source: Industry Sources, Chemical Data Inc, IHS Chemical, Industrial Minerals and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: *The propylene price is quoted as the chemical grade propylene price.
**TiO2 prices are quoted as dollar per metric ton. The global blended price is composed of 24% of North America, 34% of EMEA, 5% of Latin America and 37% of Asia.
*** Caustic soda and chlorine prices are quoted as dollars per short ton.
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27 July 2015
Table 3: U.S. Commodity Chemicals & Feedstock Spot Pricing

Week
Ending
24-Jul
Olefins
Ethylene (cents/lb.) FINSETFD
Est. Ethane-based ethylene margin (cents/lb), spot
Propylene (cents/lb.) FINSPPFD
Feedstocks
Benzene ($/gal) MATSBNFB
Feedstocks
Natural Gas, H. Hub ($/mmBTU) NGUSHHUB
Light Naphtha ($/gal) LPGSMBNG
Ethane (cents/gal) LPGSMBPE
Propane ($/gal) LPGSMBPP
Ethanol ($/gal) DLA Comdty
Week
Month
Quarterly Average
Annual Average
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
2Q:14
YTD
2014
2013
Low
High
35.00
26.92
23.00
35.00
27.08
24.00
36.00
27.92
30.00
35.00
27.02
24.06
35.50
27.57
29.68
66.94
56.67
59.77
55.12
42.52
57.91
35.80
27.79
32.95
57.78
46.19
58.38
57.05
45.76
58.73
----
----
2.89
Week
Ending
24-Jul
2.77
2.78
2.85
2.69
4.80
4.66
2.50
4.45
4.41
--
--
Week
Month
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
2Q:14
YTD
2014
2013
Low
High
2.82
1.04
19.00
0.42
1.50
2.84
1.09
18.63
0.43
1.54
2.77
1.21
19.00
0.41
1.56
2.82
1.10
18.38
0.42
1.59
2.72
1.26
18.27
0.47
1.51
3.93
2.11
23.65
1.04
1.68
4.58
2.22
29.03
1.06
1.81
2.79
1.17
18.44
0.49
1.50
4.32
1.98
26.72
1.04
1.70
3.72
2.14
26.02
1.00
1.86
1.82
0.65
15.00
0.32
1.38
15.39
3.11
154.25
1.98
2.33
Quarterly Average
Since 2005
Annual Average
Since 2005
Source: Bloomberg. Note: Spot propylene price represents refinery grade propylene.
Railcars
Table 4: U.S. Chemical Railcar Shipments
As of
Year Ago Week
Week Prior
YTD Total
Year-Ago YTD Total
Weekly Average
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
7/18/15
7/11/15
2014
29,456
30,291
30,524
31,208
30,517
29,958
30,013
30,416
29,752
29,929
28,938
29,883
Freight Carloads
30,057
29,734
31,213
853,152
849,643
2015
30,670
30,871
30,410
31,094
29,976
29,827
30,225
Y-O-Y % Change
1.1%
Monthly U.S. Railcar Shipments

33,000
0.4%
Y-O-Y % Change
4.1%
1.9%
(0.4%)
(0.4%)
(1.8%)
(0.4%)
0.7%
32,000
31,000
30,000
29,000
28,000
27,000
26,000
25,000
24,000
Source: Bloomberg, Association of American Railroads, and J.P. Morgan estimates.

27 July 2015
(1-212) 622-6644
Crude Oil Crack Spreads

Table 5: Global Crude Oil Pricing & Spreads
$ per barrel, X-Y-Z crack spreads represent (Y * $/barrel of gasoline) + (Z * $/barrel of heating oil) - (X * $/barrel of crude oil)
Global Crude Oil Prices and Spreads
(Spot Prices)
Crack Spreads - Bloomberg Ticker
Heavy - Light (WTI - Maya)
Spread ($/barrel)
WTI 2-1-1 Crack Spread - Cushing ($)
- CRKS211C
WTI 3-2-1 Crack Spread - Cushing ($)
- CRKS321C
European Dated Brent 3-2-1 Crack Spread ($)
- CRKS321Y
Crude Oil Prices - Bloomberg Ticker
WTI Crude Oil, Cushing, OK ($/barrel)
- USCRWTIC
Crude Oil, Brent Active Contract ($/barrel)
- COA Comdty
European Dated Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)
- EUCRBRDT
Latin American (Maya) Crude Oil ($/barrel)
- LACRMAUS
Week
Ending
24-Jul
Week
Month
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
2Q:14
YTD
2014
2013
Low
High
1.36
1.49
2.89
1.65
2.49
6.65
7.36
3.27
7.36
0.63
(15.15)
24.14
19.01
20.17
15.43
19.92
16.55
14.29
15.48
16.51
13.60
18.91
(1.64)
51.61
20.75
22.98
17.39
22.58
17.81
14.10
15.23
17.32
12.83
17.70
(2.02)
56.05
16.60
17.72
17.73
18.43
16.24
12.81
11.50
15.11
12.01
10.82
1.10
51.50
47.99
50.89
59.63
52.42
57.68
97.69
103.15
53.14
93.07
98.01
31.41
145.29
54.62
57.10
63.84
58.21
65.08
103.58
103.04
62.24
96.99
97.45
54.31
109.64
53.85
56.34
61.35
57.20
62.08
102.14
109.84
58.00
98.91
108.84
34.04
145.66
46.63
49.40
56.74
50.77
55.19
91.04
95.78
49.87
85.71
97.38
26.56
130.74
Note: Crude Oil Brent price historical low/high is quoted starting at 2/24/2006
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Quarterly Average
Annual Average
Since 2005

27 July 2015
(1-212) 622-6644
Agricultural Chemicals & Crop Pricing

Table 6: Benchmark Selling Prices for Fertilizer Products, Major Crops, and Key Feedstocks
Week
Ending
24-Jul
Week
Month
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
2Q:14
YTD
2014
2013
Low
High
465
329
418
465
332
418
455
320
408
465
330
418
468
337
421
552
375
504
564
363
517
483
349
436
550
381
504
611
483
564
125
955
85
891
330
224
270
269
332
228
288
276
351
246
297
300
335
230
274
280
331
228
284
276
379
244
333
315
389
236
316
304
338
233
291
286
379
249
343
340
520
416
408
450
211
907
173
193
813
825
231
156
231
157
231
156
231
156
254
181
265
175
298
198
266
192
303
215
338
248
135
573
474
465
475
470
475
472
475
469
485
469
481
499
498
461
484
474
477
443
538
535
219
223
1193
1228
295
313
295
318
308
320
295
317
308
319
295
320
293
312
306
319
391
420
474
526
148
181
875
1008
Natural Gas
Henry Hub ($mmBTU)-NGUSHHUB
2.82
2.84
2.77
2.82
2.72
3.93
4.58
2.79
4.32
3.72
1.82
15.39
Ammonia
Tampa cfr ($/mt)
460
460
450
460
463
547
559
478
545
607
125
931
129
810
129
810
129
805
129
810
130
805
125
738
124
702
132
789
148
723
195
917
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
137
23-Jul
1102
1161
132
17-Jul
1048
1162
132
135
135
135
131
138
123
175
606
790
834
933
1053
629
646
1093
1026
953
738
659
677
1101
964
1220
1195
509
418
11793
11713
Products
Ammonia
US Gulf cfr ($/mt)
Benchmark Margin ($/mt)
Caribbean fob ($/mt)
Urea
US Gulf fob ($/mt)
Yuzhnyy/Black Sea fob ($/mt)
Trinidad/Venez fob ($/mt)
Nitrogen Solutions (UAN 32% N)
NOLA ($/mt)
DAP
Central Florida fob ($/mt)
US Gulf export fob ($/mt)
Potash
Vancouver fob spot ($/mt)
Brazil cfr spot ($/mt)
Feedstocks
Phosphate
Phosphate Rock 68-70% BPL (cfr India, $/mt)
Phosphoric Acid (cfr India, $/mt)
Sulfur
Tampa/Florida cfr contract ($/lt)
Basic Freight Indices
Baltic Dry Freight Index BDIY
Panamax (50-60,000 mt)-BPIY
Quarterly Average
Annual Average
Since 2005
Source: ARGUS FMB, FWA, Green Markets, Bloomberg, and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: mt=metric ton (2,205 pounds); mmBtu=million British Thermal Units; bu=bushel.
Table 7: U.S. Crop Prices (Near-Month Futures)

In $ per bushel, except cotton in $ per pound
Price
Week
Month
Quarterly Average
% Change
24-Jul
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
QTD
YTD
2014
YTD
Low
Corn
3.93
4.20
3.68
4.18
3.66
3.61
16.0%
3.81
4.16
(8.4%)
1.86
8.31
Soybeans
9.91
10.15
9.88
10.27
9.64
11.52
(10.8%)
9.83
12.45
(21.1%)
5.00
17.71
Wheat
5.12
5.54
5.22
5.65
5.05
5.29
6.8%
5.20
5.88
(11.5%)
2.88
12.80
Cotton
0.66
0.66
0.64
0.66
0.65
0.67
(1.8%)
0.64
0.76
(16.8%)
0.39
2.15
U.S. Crop Prices
Annual Average
% Change
Since 2005
High

27 July 2015
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Table 8: Crop Progress - Conditions

Very Poor
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Corn (Jul 19)

Corn (Jul 12)
Soybean (Jul 19)
Soybean (Jul 12)
Wheat (Jul 19)
Wheat (Jul 12)
Cotton (Jul 19)
Cotton (Jul 12)
Poor
7%
7%
8%
8%
6%
5%
7%
7%
Fair
22%
22%
27%
27%
23%
23%
35%
35%
Good
52%
54%
50%
50%
55%
56%
46%
47%
Excellent
17%
15%
12%
12%
15%
15%
11%
10%
Source: USDA. Note: Corn and soybeans represents 18 states, cotton 15 states, Spring wheat: 6 states.
Table 9: U.S. Crop Budgets

Corn
03/04
11/12
Avg
2013
/14
Soybeans
2014
/15
2015
/16
03/04
11/12
Avg
Wheat
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
03/04
11/12
Avg
Cotton ($/lb)
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
03/04
11/12
Avg
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
Price
$/bu or lb.
3.64
4.39
3.56
4.09
8.97
13.00
9.53
9.55
4.73
6.87
4.74
5.22
0.66
0.78
0.64
0.65
Yield
bu or lb./acre
152
158
171.0
166.8
41
44
47.8
46.0
44
47
43.7
44.3
814
821
838
819
Gross Revenue
$/acre
555
694
609
683
372
572
456
439
210
323
207
231
537
640
536
532
Seed
$/acre
63
109
111
110
43
66
67
69
10
17
16
16
64
104
106
106
Fertilizer
Crop
Protection
Other
Total Cash
Costs
$/acre
86
131
104
112
15
21
17
19
37
55
44
47
68
109
88
94
25
29
26
29
18
28
28
28
10
15
14
14
64
72
70
70
85
106
111
111
60
72
87
87
59
72
73
73
245
292
285
285
259
375
352
362
136
187
200
202
116
159
148
150
441
577
549
555
Margin
$/acre
296
319
257
321
236
385
256
237
94
164
59
81
96
63
(13)
(26)
$/acre
$/acre
$/acre
Source: USDA, Doanes, Green Markets, Agrium, Bloomberg and J.P.Morgan estimates. Cotton prices in $/lb.

27 July 2015
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Figure 1: North American Fertilizer Producer Inventories

United States Phosphate (P2O5) Inventories (in short tons)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1Q
2Q
5-year average
3Q
2013
2014
4Q
2015
1Q:15s ending inventory increased by 59,000 short tons versus 4Q:14 and is 15.5% above the previous 5-year avg.
North American Potash (KCl) Inventories (in metric tons)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1Q
2Q
5-year average
3Q
2013
2014
4Q
2015
1Q:15s ending inventory increased by 641,000 metric tons versus 4Q:14 and is (2.9%) below the previous 5-year avg.
North American Urea Inventories (in short tons based on 3-month lag)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1Q
2Q
5 Year Average
3Q
2014
2013
4Q
2012
4Q:14s ending inventory increased by 208,000 short tons versus 3Q:14 and is (14.3%) below the previous 5-year avg.
Source: The Fertilizer Institute and J.P. Morgan estimates.
9

27 July 2015
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Table 10: Chinese Fertilizer Tariff Schedule 2015

Product
Season
Period
Provisional Tax
Special Tax
Base Price (if applicable)
Urea
All Year
Jan 1 - Dec 31
Rmb80
None
None
DAP
MAP
All Year
Jan 1 - Dec 31
Rmb100
None
None
All Year
Jan 1 - Dec 31
Rmb100
None
None
Source: ARGUS FMB, Fertecon.
Chart 1: Chinese Glyphosate Price

$7,000
$6,750
$6,500
$6,250
$6,000
$5,750
$5,500
$5,250
$5,000
$4,750
$4,500
$4,250
$4,000
$3,750
$3,500
$3,250
$3,000
China Glyphosate Price in $/mt - CHCNGLYP
Source: Bloomberg.
10

27 July 2015
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Currencies
Table 11: Global Currencies
USD ($) Denominated
Global Currencies (Spot)
Price
Week
Month
Quarterly Average
% Change
USD Denominated
24-Jul
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
QTD
YTD
2014
YTD
Low
High
Euro
0.910
0.923
0.895
0.909
0.903
0.730
24.53%
0.897
0.753
19.17%
0.625
0.953
Chinese Renminbi
6.208
6.211
6.209
6.209
6.201
6.101
1.76%
6.217
6.161
0.91%
6.041
8.283
Brazilian Real
3.353
3.189
3.129
3.177
3.070
2.362
34.54%
2.982
2.346
27.08%
1.540
3.353
Canadian Dollar
1.305
1.297
1.232
1.279
1.229
1.103
15.97%
1.239
1.104
12.25%
0.920
1.305
Japanese Yen
123.808
124.054
123.854
123.202
121.319
102.796
19.85%
120.583
105.614
14.17%
75.827
125.612
Mexican Peso
16.265
15.929
15.555
15.845
15.319
13.228
19.79%
15.215
13.297
14.43%
9.858
16.265
Australian Dollar
1.373
1.357
1.306
1.344
1.286
1.115
20.49%
1.286
1.108
16.03%
0.907
1.663
South Korea Won
11.705
11.505
11.230
11.398
10.975
10.699
6.54%
11.039
10.528
4.85%
9.022
15.838
Global Currencies (Spot)
Price
Week
Month
Offshore Denominated
24-Jul
Ago
Ago
QTD
2Q:15
3Q:14
QTD
YTD
2014
YTD
Low
High
Euro
1.098
1.083
1.117
1.101
1.107
1.370
(19.70%)
1.115
1.328
(16.09%)
1.050
1.599
Chinese Renminbi
0.161
0.161
0.161
0.161
0.161
0.164
(1.73%)
0.161
0.162
(0.90%)
0.121
0.166
Brazilian Real
0.298
0.314
0.320
0.315
0.326
0.423
(25.67%)
0.335
0.426
(21.31%)
0.298
0.649
Canadian Dollar
0.767
0.771
0.812
0.782
0.814
0.907
(13.77%)
0.807
0.906
(10.91%)
0.767
1.087
Japanese Yen
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.010
(16.56%)
0.008
0.009
(12.41%)
0.008
0.013
Mexican Peso
0.061
0.063
0.064
0.063
0.065
0.076
(16.52%)
0.066
0.075
(12.61%)
0.061
0.101
Australian Dollar
0.728
0.737
0.766
0.744
0.778
0.897
(17.01%)
0.778
0.902
(13.81%)
0.601
1.102
South Korea Won
0.085
0.087
0.089
0.088
0.091
0.093
(6.14%)
0.091
0.095
(4.63%)
0.063
0.111
Quarterly Average
% Change
Annual Average
Annual Average
% Change
% Change
Since 2005
Since 2005
11

27 July 2015
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The S&P 500 decreased -2.2% for the week. The top performers for 2015 are Pall
(+24.1%), Novozymes (+22.5%), and Axalta (+15.9%). The largest decliners are
Chemours (-45.8%), Axiall (-32.3%) and Potash Corp. (-21.7%).
Table 12: Weekly Pricing Table

YTD Pricing Table
Company
Ticker
Specialty, Commodity & Agricultural

Chemicals
Pall Corp.
PLL
Novozymes
NZYMB.DC
Axalta
AXTA
Avery Dennison
AVY
Ferro
FOE
LyondellBasell
LYB
CF Industries Holdings
CF
Intl. Flavors & Fragrances
IFF
Agrium Inc.
AGU
Orion
OEC
Ecolab
ECL
Celanese
CE
WD-40 Company
WDFC
Sherwin-Williams
SHW
Dow Chemical
DOW
Westlake Chemical Corp.
WLK
Eastman Chemical
EMN
Ashland
ASH
Scotts Miracle-Gro
SMG
Mosaic Company
MOS
Compass Minerals
CMP
Valspar Corp.
VAL
RPM International
RPM
Air Products & Chemicals
APD
PPG Industries
PPG
Minerals Technologies
MTX
Praxair
PX
H.B. Fuller
FUL
Monsanto
MON
Albemarle Corp.
ALB
Huntsman Corp.
HUN
DuPont
DD
Cabot Corp.
CBT
Potash Corp. Saskatchewan
POT
Axiall Corp.
AXLL
Chemours
CC
Major Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJII
Nasdaq Composite
COMP
S&P 500 Index
SPX
JPM
Rating
N
N
OW
N
N
OW
N
N
N
OW
OW
N
N
N
OW
OW
OW
N
OW
OW
N
OW
N
N
OW
OW
N
N
NR*
N
N
N
OW
OW
N
UW
Price
12/31/14
Price
7/24/15
YTD Increase/
(Decrease)
101.21
42.40
26.02
51.88
12.96
79.39
54.51
101.36
94.72
16.99
104.52
59.96
85.08
263.04
45.61
61.09
75.86
119.76
62.32
45.65
86.83
86.48
50.71
144.23
115.58
69.45
129.56
44.53
119.47
60.13
22.78
70.24
43.86
35.32
42.47
20.85
125.60
51.93
30.16
60.11
14.98
90.37
60.85
111.10
101.18
18.14
109.53
62.47
87.96
267.12
45.97
60.63
73.55
115.02
59.33
42.89
81.55
80.61
45.97
130.06
103.25
61.52
112.98
38.83
102.86
49.81
18.82
56.94
34.80
27.65
28.75
11.31
24.1%
22.5%
15.9%
15.9%
15.6%
13.8%
11.6%
9.6%
6.8%
6.8%
4.8%
4.2%
3.4%
1.6%
0.8%
-0.8%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-4.8%
-6.0%
-6.1%
-6.8%
-9.3%
-9.8%
-10.7%
-11.4%
-12.8%
-12.8%
-13.9%
-17.2%
-17.4%
-18.9%
-20.7%
-21.7%
-32.3%
-45.8%
17823.07
4736.05
2058.90
17569
5089
2080
-1.4%
7.4%
1.0%
Weekly Pricing Table

Company
Specialty, Commodity & Agricultural

Chemicals
Novozymes
51.93
Sherwin-Williams
267.12
Pall Corp.
125.60
Scotts Miracle-Gro
59.33
Valspar Corp.
80.61
Intl. Flavors & Fragrances
111.10
WD-40 Company
87.96
Compass Minerals
81.55
Ashland
115.02
RPM International
45.97
Avery Dennison
60.11
Ecolab
109.53
Axalta
30.16
Praxair
112.98
Monsanto
102.86
Minerals Technologies
61.52
Air Products & Chemicals
130.06
DuPont
56.94
H.B. Fuller
38.83
Agrium Inc.
101.18
Orion
18.14
Celanese
62.47
Cabot Corp.
34.80
Mosaic Company
42.89
Potash Corp. Saskatchewan
27.65
Ferro
14.98
Eastman Chemical
73.55
Albemarle Corp.
49.81
Westlake Chemical Corp.
60.63
LyondellBasell
90.37
PPG Industries
103.25
Huntsman Corp.
18.82
Axiall Corp.
28.75
Dow Chemical
45.97
CF Industries Holdings
60.85
Chemours
11.31
Major Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average
17569
Nasdaq Composite
5089
S&P 500 Index
2080
Key: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates
NOTE: Companies at and above the shaded line represent companies that outperformed the S&P 500.
**Chemours (CC) began trading on June 19, 2015.
*Due to J.P. Morgan's involvement in the proposed transaction, we are suspending our rating, price target, and estimates for Monsanto (MON)
12
Price
7/24/15
1-Week Increase/
(Decrease)
0.8%
0.4%
-0.1%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.4%
-2.8%
-2.9%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-3.9%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-4.6%
-4.6%
-4.7%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.1%
-5.2%
-5.4%
-5.7%
-5.9%
-6.0%
-6.3%
-7.3%
-7.6%
-8.4%
-8.7%
-10.2%
-11.7%
-13.3%
-2.9%
-2.3%
-2.2%
(1-212) 622-6644

27 July 2015
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research
analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of
any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per
KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or
intervention.
Important Disclosures
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compendium reports and all J.P. Morgancovered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406,
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Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total return is
compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear
in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans research
website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Zekauskas, Jeffrey J: Agrium (AGU), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Ashland
Inc. (ASH), Avery Dennison (AVY), Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA), Axiall Corp (AXLL), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF),
Cabot Corporation (CBT), Celanese (CE), Chemours (CC), Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP), Dow Chemical (DOW), DuPont
(DD), Eastman Chemical Company (EMN), Ecolab Inc. (ECL), Ferro Corp (FOE), H.B. Fuller (FUL), Huntsman Corporation (HUN),
International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Monsanto (MON),
Novozymes (NZYMb.CO), Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC), PPG Industries (PPG), Pall Corporation (PLL), Polypore International
(PPO), Potash Corp. (POT), Praxair (PX), RPM International Inc. (RPM), Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), The
Mosaic Company (MOS), Valspar Corp (VAL), WD-40 Company (WDFC), Westlake Chemical Corp. (WLK)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2015
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage

IB clients*
JPMS Equity Research Coverage
IB clients*
Overweight
(buy)
44%
51%
45%
71%
Neutral
(hold)
43%
48%
47%
66%
Underweight
(sell)
13%
38%
9%
57%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table
above.
Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered
companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst
or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com.
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upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.
Other Disclosures
13
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27 July 2015
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14
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27 July 2015
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Copyright 2015 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
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