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23 April 2010
Sector Upda te
23 April 2010
MARKET DATELINE
♦ A new “norm”. While in terms of yields, M-REITs are currently already trading at Chart 1: Yield Gap Between M-
a slight premium to (i.e. lower than) the historical average. We remain bullish on REITs & S-REITs (bps)
the sector. We expect a new “norm” to gradually emerge, taking the premium (%)
13.0
higher to match or even surpass the high end of the historical range, propelled by 11.0
a buoyant stock market, and more importantly, the continued narrowing of the 9.0
5.0
convergence between M-REITs and S-REITs is not a new story in the market, we
M-REIT (%) S-R EIT (%)
believe investors have not fully appreciated that this story is fast turning into
Source: RHBRI, Bloomberg
reality. On a normalised basis, the yield gap between M-REITs and S-REITs has
narrowed from 316 bps in 2007 to 197 bps in 2008, and further to 132 bps in
Relative Performance To FBM
2009-2010 (up to 1Q2010) (see Chart 1). We believe the convergence has been KLCI
driven largely by the growing, and hence improved relative investability of the M-
REIT sector vis-à-vis the S-REIT sector.
♦ A slight premium to historical valuations, but history is to be re-written. FBM KLCI
At present, M-REITs trade at 7.7% net yield, at a slight premium to its historical
average of 7.9%. However, on the back of a buoyant stock market and a new Axis REIT
“norm” that is taking shape with the rising relative investability of M-REITs vis-a-
vis S-REITs, we expect M-REIT yields to soon revisit the lows of 6.8-7.0% prior to
the recent financial crisis, before heading towards the 6% level currently
commanded by S-REITs.
♦ Yield gap between M-REIT and MGS to narrow. At present, the yield gap
Relative Performance To FBM
KLCI
between M-REITs and the 10-year MGS is 364 bps that is fairly consistent with the
historical average of 380 bps. Similarly, on the back of a buoyant stock market
and a new “norm” that is taking shape with the rising relative investability of M- FBM KLCI
REITs vis-a-vis risk-free debt, we expect the yield gap between M-REITs and the
10-year MGS to soon revisit the historical lows of 330-336 bps prior to the recent
financial crisis, before heading towards new lows. Quill Capita
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23 April 2010
♦ A new “norm”. While in terms of yields, M-REITs are currently already trading at a slight premium to (i.e. lower
than) the historical average, as yields are inversely correlated to share price), we remain bullish on the sector as
we expect a new “norm” to gradually emerge, taking the premium higher to match or even surpass the high end
of the historical range, propelled by a buoyant stock market, and more importantly, the continued narrowing of
the yield gap with S-REITs.
♦ Convergence is no theory but actual work-in-progress. While the convergence between M-REITs and S-
REITs is not a new story in the market, we believe investors have not fully appreciated that it is fast turning into
a reality. On a normalised basis (i.e. excluding 4Q08, 1Q09 and 2Q09 at the height of the recent financial crisis),
the yield gap between M-REITs and S-REITs has narrowed from 316 bps in 2007 to 197 bps in 2008, and further
to 132 bps in 2009-2010 (up to 1Q2010) (see Chart 1). We believe the convergence has been driven largely by
the growing, and hence improved relative investability of the M-REIT sector vis-à-vis the S-REIT sector. Over the
last 5-6 years, the number of publicly traded M-REITs has jumped by almost four-fold from three to eleven, and
in terms of market value, by more than 3x from RM1.7bn to RM5.3bn (see Charts 2 & 3). With at least three
more new M-REITs to be listed over the immediate term, we believe the convergence will accelerate further.
11.0
9.0
132 bps
7.0 197 bps
316bps
5.0
3.0
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
* Net yield
Source: RHBRI, Bloomberg
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23 April 2010
No. of REITs
15
14
12 11 11 11
9
7
3
3
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e#
RM bn
6.0
5.3
5.1 5.2
5.0
3.9
4.0
3.0 2.8
2.0 1.7
1.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q2010
♦ A slight premium to historical valuations, but history is to be re-written. At present, M-REITs trade at
7.7% net yield, at a slight premium to its historical average of 7.9% (excluding anomalies in 4Q08, 1Q09 and
2Q09 at the height of the recent financial crisis). However, on the back of a buoyant stock market and a new
“norm” that is taking shape with the rising relative investability of M-REITs vis-a-vis S-REITs, we expect M-REIT
yields to soon revisit the lows of 6.8-7.0% prior to the recent financial crisis (see Chart 4), before heading
towards the 6% level currently commanded by S-REITs. Falling yields mean share price appreciation for REITs.
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(%)
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
M-REIT Average
♦ Yield gap between M-REIT and MGS to narrow. At present, the yield gap between M-REITs and the 10-year
MGS is 364 bps that is fairly consistent with the historical average (excluding anomalies in 4Q08, 1Q09 and 2Q09
at the height of the recent financial crisis) of 380 bps. Similarly, on the back of a buoyant stock market and a
new “norm” that is taking shape with the rising relative investability of M-REITs vis-a-vis risk-free debt, we
expect the yield gap between M-REITs and the 10-year MGS to soon revisit the historical lows of 330-336 bps
prior to the recent financial crisis (see Charts 5 & 6), before heading towards new lows.
(%)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
M-REITs MGS
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Chart 6: Yield Gap Between M-REITs & 10-Year MGS
bps
800
700
600
500
400
300
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
♦ Risks and concerns. The risks include: (1) Non-renewal of tenancy after expiry; (2) Unfavourable economic
conditions; and (3) Interest rate hikes that will reduce the yield spread between M-REITs and risk-free rate.
♦ Forecasts. Maintained. We value Axis REIT and Quill Capita based on yield benchmark of 7%, pre-crisis level,
and after taking into account the relative market capitalisation and liquidity.
♦ Maintain Overweight on the M-REIT sector. We continue to be bullish on M-REITs due to: (1) The bright
prospects of the investment property sector in Malaysia underpinned by economic growth, rising consumerism
backed by a young demographic structure in Malaysia and growing tourist arrival; (2) Rising M-REITs’ relative
investability vis-à-vis S-REITs and risk-free debts on the back of an expanding publicly traded M-REIT sector; and
(3) Rising investors’ appetite for asset classes that provide a hedge against inflation such as REITs.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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Stock Ratings
Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more
over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on
higher risks.
Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.
Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.
Industry/Sector Ratings
Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.
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