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Table 1
Table 2
Absolute
Difference
between Was Greenspan’s
Yield When Greenspan’s Greenspan’s Actual Greenspan’s Forecast in Was The
Date of Survey Yield Forecast for Forecasted Change in Forecast and Direction Consensus
Survey Published 6 mos. Forward Change in Yield Yield Actual Correct? Correct?
Jan-82 13.45% 12.90% -0.55% 0.47% 1.02%
Jul-82 13.92% 13.75% -0.17% -3.51% 3.34% YES YES
Jan-83 10.41% 10.15% -0.26% 0.57% 0.83%
Jul-83 10.98% 10.95% -0.03% 0.89% 0.92%
Jan-84 11.87% 11.40% -0.47% 1.77% 2.24%
Jul-84 13.64% 14.05% 0.41% -2.11% 2.52%
Jan-85 11.53% 11.00% -0.53% -1.09% 0.56% YES
Jul-85 10.44% 11.00% 0.56% -1.17% 1.73%
Jan-86 9.27% 9.30% 0.03% -1.99% 2.02%
Jul-86 7.28% 7.70% 0.42% 0.21% 0.21% YES YES
Jan-87 7.49% 7.50% 0.01% 1.01% 1.00% YES
Jul-87 8.50% Became Federal Reserve Chairman
Difference Between Forecast And Actual (average of all periods) 1.49%
Batting Average 0.364 0.182
Bianco Research, L.L.C. Page 3 of 3 January 2, 2001
Table 3
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