Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem | Week 4 Practice Problems | CTL.SC1x Courseware | edX
Week 4: Forecasting III - Special Cases & Extensions > Week 4 Practice Problems >
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem
Bookmarks
Bookmark
Course
Overview &
Logistics
Entrance
Survey
Week 1:
Overview of
Supply Chain
Management &
Logistics
the corner, Max decided to start tracking his pizza sales from May 1 to July
31. In order to more accurately predict pizza sales, Max has contacted you
to help develop a regression, so he can better predict future sales. Click
hereto download the Excel Data and herefor the LibreOffice data. For
this problem, please enter all numerical responses to three decimal
places.
Week 2:
Forecasting I Introduction
Week 3:
Forecasting II Exponential
Smoothing
Part 1A
Max thinks that his pizza chain is beginning to generate some buzz with
the MIT students and that sales are going up with time. Run a regression
against time only to determine how many additional pizzas are sold each
day. What is the
? Please state your answer to three decimal places.
Week 4:
Forecasting III
- Special Cases
& Extensions
Answer: 0.757
Welcome to Week
4
Lesson 1: Causal
Analysis
EXPLANATION
Lesson 2: New
Product &
Intermittent
Demand
Forecasting
The
value is determined by using the LINEST function to regress
time against pizza sales. It is telling us how much of the variability in
the dependent variable (Number of Pizzas) can be explained by the
independent variables (the number of days).
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x_2+1T2016/courseware/71f80ac0a02747fe9cf6fcee5dd77b63/da338c912f0d4a80a7391d82ca9952b5/
1/5
3/15/2016
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem | Week 4 Practice Problems | CTL.SC1x Courseware | edX
Week 4 Practice
Problems
Supplemental
Materials for
MicroMasters
Week 4 Graded
Assignment
Even if your answer was accepted - use our value of 0.757 for the next
part. The solution is shown in spreadsheet form in part 1.2.
Part 1B
Week 5:
Inventory
Management I
- Deterministic
Demand
Answer: 0.755
EXPLANATION
adjusted
Part 2
About how many additional pizzas are sold each day? That is, what is the
daily trend for the number of pizzas sold each day? Please state your
answer to three decimal places.
Answer: 0.648
EXPLANATION
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x_2+1T2016/courseware/71f80ac0a02747fe9cf6fcee5dd77b63/da338c912f0d4a80a7391d82ca9952b5/
2/5
3/15/2016
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem | Week 4 Practice Problems | CTL.SC1x Courseware | edX
Using the LINEST function, we find that approximately 0.648 pizzas are
sold each day. After performing a t-test, we see that this value is
significant at a p-value of 0.01. The solution can be found in Excel
form here and LibreOffice here. See the solution slides for Excel and
LibreOffice .
Part 3
Max has read that pizza sales are highest on Fridays and Saturdays? Using
a regression that includes both time (days) and a dummy variable for
weekend sales, how many additional pizzas are sold on Fridays and
Saturdays. Please state your answer to just one decimal place.
Answer: 15.0
EXPLANATION
Part 4
Finally, Max has heard that Mondays and Tuesdays are the slowest days
for the restaurant industry, so he has experimented by offering a deal on
these days in June and July. Running a regression include time, weekends,
and this discount, determine the p-value as a percentage associated with
sales on days with the discount. (Enter your answer without a % sign i.e.
12.3 rather than 12.3%.)
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x_2+1T2016/courseware/71f80ac0a02747fe9cf6fcee5dd77b63/da338c912f0d4a80a7391d82ca9952b5/
3/5
3/15/2016
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem | Week 4 Practice Problems | CTL.SC1x Courseware | edX
Answer: 19.719
EXPLANATION
Running a third regression, we see that days with the discount sell 2.8
pizzas less than other days. But once we check the p-value, we see
that the discount is not significant under a p-value threshold of 0.01.
See the solution slides for Excel and LibreOffice.
Part 5
What variable(s) to you recommend that Max use to predict pizza sales?
(multiple choice)
Time only
Discount Only
Weekend Only
Time and Discount
Time and Weekend
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x_2+1T2016/courseware/71f80ac0a02747fe9cf6fcee5dd77b63/da338c912f0d4a80a7391d82ca9952b5/
4/5
3/15/2016
Practice Problem 1: Maxs Slice Problem | Week 4 Practice Problems | CTL.SC1x Courseware | edX
EXPLANATION
Using a p-value threshold of 0.01, we see that time and weekend are
the best predictors of pizza sales. We find that this regression has an
value of 0.8712, which is pretty good. Adding in the discount, we
increase our
edX Inc. All rights reserved except where noted. EdX, Open edX and the edX and Open EdX logos are registered
trademarks or trademarks of edX Inc.
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:MITx+CTL.SC1x_2+1T2016/courseware/71f80ac0a02747fe9cf6fcee5dd77b63/da338c912f0d4a80a7391d82ca9952b5/
5/5