FEATURE

Growing demand for

eco-efficient aircraft
According to the latest forecasts the aviation sector is set for continued
growth over the next 20 years. This is good news for composites, as
older aircraft will be replaced by new, eco-efficient models.

irbus Global Market Forecast for 20122031 predicts that air passenger
trac will grow at an average annual
rate of 4.7% in the next 20 years, during
which time some 10,350 aircraft will be
replaced by new, more ecient models
(see chart opposite). The report identies a
need for a total of some 28,200 passenger
(100 seats or more) and freighter aircraft
between 2012 and 2031, worth nearly
US$4 trillion. Of these, over 27,350 will be
passenger aircraft, valued at $3.7 trillion.
Boeings latest gures (Current Market
Outlook 2012-2031) oer a slightly higher
forecast, with passenger trac growing at
a rate of approximately 5% per year. Boeing
predicts demand for 34,000 new aircraft,
valued at $4.5 trillion, with some 13,940
aircraft being replaced by new, more
ecient models.

By 2031, Airbus forecasts the number of

aviation mega cities will more than double
to 92 and over 90% of the worlds trac
will be between or through these points.
Airbus agship model, the A380, the worlds
largest commercial aircraft, links these cities.
According to Airbus, an A380 takes o or
lands every 7 minutes. The A380s structure is 25% composite, leading to reduced
weight and improved fuel eciency.

Aircraft type
Over 1,700 very large aircraft (400 seats
and above) like the A380 will have been

delivered by 2031, valued at $600 billion. Of

these over 1,330 will be passenger aircraft
worth a total of some $500 billion. Asia
Pacic leads demand (46%) for these large
aircraft, followed by the Middle East (23%)
and Europe (19%).
In the twin-aisle segment (250-400 seats),
which includes the A330 and the A350
XWB, some 6,970 new passenger and
freighter aircraft will be delivered, valued
at some US$1.7 trillion. Of these, 6,500 are
passenger aircraft, valued at US$1.6 trillion. Asia Pacic will lead demand (46%),
followed by Europe and North America.

Growth in emerging regions

According to Airbus, emerging economic
regions will represent more than 50%
of all trac growth in the next 20 years.
Increasing urbanisation and the doubling
of the worlds middle classes to 5 billion
people is also driving growth (see table for
more drivers of growth).
Asia Pacic will account for 35% of all new
aircraft deliveries, followed by Europe and
North America with 21% each. In value
terms, the single biggest market will be
China followed by the US, UAE and India.

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Airbus describes its Concept Plane as an engineers dream. It features long, slim wings, semi-embedded
engines, a U-shaped tail and lightweight body, all designed to improve economic and environmental
performance or eco-efficiency. (Picture Airbus.)

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2012

0034-3617/12 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

FEATURE

In the next 20 years, over 19,500 singleaisle aircraft worth over $1.6 trillion will be
delivered. A third of deliveries will be in Asia
Pacic, followed by North America (25%)
and Europe (22%).

Fleet size
35,000 30,000 -

32,551
+ 3.8% per annum

25,000 -

16,995

Growth
New
aircraft
27,347

20,000 -

Sustainable growth

15,556

Although only 2% of global man-made

carbon dioxide (CO) emissions come from
aviation, the industry is under pressure to
become more environmentally sustainable.
It has set itself a target to reduce aviation
emissions by at least 50% by 2050.

15,000 10,000 -

10,352

5,000 -

Composites and eco-efficiency

Airbus 21st century agship the doubledeck A380 entered service in 2007. With
the capacity to carry 525 passengers in
a three-class conguration, it boasts new
benchmarks for fuel eciency and noise
levels.
The A380 was also the rst commercial
aircraft to incorporate as much as 25%
composites, with its lightweight carbon
bre reinforced plastic (CFRP) centre wing
box saving up to 1.5 tonnes of weight.
According to Airbus, the A380 is 15 tonnes
lighter than it would be if made entirely
of metal. As a result, the aircraft has a
very low fuel burn of less than 3 litres
per passenger per 100 km. Airbus says

www.reinforcedplastics.com

Stay in service

2031

Replaced

Demand for over 27,000 new passenger aircraft (100 seats and above) by 2031. (Source: Airbus.)

in-service experience has shown a fuel

consumption of 20% less than its nearest
competitor.
The Airbus A350 XWB, scheduled to enter
service in the second half of 2014, will be
over 50% composite with a carbon bre
reinforced plastic (CFRP) fuselage and
wings. With three versions, accommodating
270-350 passengers, this twin-aisle model
brings together the latest in aerodynamics,
design and advanced technologies to oer
25% less fuel consumption than currentgeneration aircraft. Over 70% of A350
XWBs airframe is made from advanced
materials, combining 53% of composite
structures with titanium and advanced
aluminium alloys. The use of these materials also reduces the new aircrafts overall
fatigue and corrosion maintenance tasks
by 60%.
Boeings agship model, the 787 Dreamliner, can carry 210-290 passengers in two

Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth

More people, bigger cities, more wealth;
Emerging markets, more rst time yers and
a growing middle class;
Growing tourism and internationalisation will
stimulate demand;
More liberalisation to come, particularly in
Asia, Africa and Latin America;

5,204

0-

Beginning 2012

Today, Airbus spends more than 90% of

its 2 billion annual R&D budget on technologies that have environmental benets
for current and future aircraft. Part of this
investment is used to develop new aircraft
that generate fewer emissions and less
noise, while carrying a larger payload over
longer ranges.

Replaced

Replacement of less eco-ecient aircraft

2/3 of existing eet will be replaced;
Low cost model set to grow in Asia Pacic
and Africa;
Growth in the number of aviation mega-cities,
driving demand for very large aircraft.
(Source: Airbus.)

variants. Delivered to its rst customer in

2011, Boeing says the Dreamliner uses 20%
less fuel than current aircraft of a similar
size. Composite materials make up 50% of
the primary structure of the 787 including
the fuselage and wing.
Composites also play a big part in the
Airbus Concept Plane. This illustrates what
air transport could look like in 2050 and
is a representation of the main technologies that are being explored to meet future
needs: a signicant cut in fuel burn and
emissions, less noise and greater comfort.
The fuselage is no longer a simple tube
but is curved and shaped to provide more
internal space for various cabin congurations, with better aerodynamics outside
to improve ight. The fuselage and entire
aircraft structure is manufactured entirely
from composite, which can be shaped into
the required design.
And composites are not increasing their
role in the airframe, composite fan
blades are now being incorporated into
aero engines. The Airbus A320neo (a
re-engined version of the popular A320),
the Boeing 737 MAX (a similarly upgraded
B737), and Chinas new COMAC C919
will feature the new fuel-ecient LEAP
engine with composite fan blades and
containment case. (See pages 32-35 of
this issue for more information on this
application.)

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2012

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