LONDONS GLOBAL UNIVERSITY

Mathematical Modelling & Analysis I ENGS103P

Coursework No 4

Topic Coverage:

Topic 9: Engineering Uncertainty

Topic 10: Analysing Data

Date When Coursework Set

07 December 2015

Coursework Submission Deadline

11 January 2016

Date of Coursework Return

05 February 2016

Student Name:
Student UCL ID number:

Workgroup Number:
Workgroup Lead:
Department:

Abel Nyamapfene
Module Coordinator ENGS103P Mathematical Modelling & Analysis
University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT
Tel: +44 (0)20 7679 2390
a.nyamapfene@ucl.ac.uk
www.ucl.ac.uk

Show all your workings

Engineering Uncertainty
1.

The water supply for a City C comes from two sources A and B through the
water supply network shown in the figure below.
Source A

Branch 3

City C

Source B

F1 , F2 and F3 denote the failure of branch 1, 2, and 3 respectively. It is known

that P(F1 ) = 0.1, P(F2 ) = 0.15, and P(F3 ) = 0.05.
Assuming the failures of the branches are independent. Determine the probability
of failure of this water supply system to City C.
[10%]

2.

Consider two river streams flowing past an industrial plant. Let A denote the
event that stream a is polluted, and B denote that stream b is polluted. It is
determined from historical observations that
P( A)

3.

2
3
4
, P( B) , P( A OR B)
5
4
5

a.

Determine P( A B) and P(B A) .

b.
c.

Interpret the results.

Determine whether A and B are independent.

[10%]
[5%]
[5%]

The bearing capacity X of the soil under a column-footing foundation is known to

vary between 6-15 kips/sq ft. Its probability density function is given as

f X ( x)

1
x
1
2.7 15

f X ( x) 0

if 6 x 15
otherwise

If the column is designed to carry a load of 7.5 kips/sq ft, what is the probability
of failure of the foundation?
[20%]

Page 2 of 3

Analysing Data
4.

Table 1 shows measurements of current (mA) flowing in a sample of labelled

100 Ohms resistors at 1 V.
From Table 1 what is the systematic error from the sample to the nominal
resistance value and what is the random error on the measurement.
[10%]

Table 1: Measured current (mA) across sample of labelled 100 Ohms resistors at 1 V
10.10

5.

9.85

9.93

10.01

9.82

9.99

10.16

10.03

9.89

9.97

Table 2 shows a range of voltage values applied across a given resistance

together with measurements of the corresponding value of current flowing
through the resistance.
a.

By carrying out a linear regression in Matlab or Excel find the best fit straight line
for the given data.
[10%]
Use linear interpolation to estimate the value of the current at 0.45 V.
[10%]

b.

Table 2: For a given resistance in the sample current as a function of voltage

Voltage
(V)
Current
(mA)

6.

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0,.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.99

2.00

3.01

4.1

4.85

5.99

7.02

7.98

9.00

10.03

Table 3 shows a range of voltage values applied across a diode together with
measurements of the corresponding value of current flowing through the diode.
Use regression techniques to find the ideality factor of the diode and calculate
the maximum error of a linear interpolation in the 0.9-1 V range compared to
the fitted value.
[20%]

Table 3: Current as a function of voltage in a diode

Voltage
(V)
Current
(mA)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0,.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.07

0.92

12.02

158.29

NB: Equation of a diode:

) 1)

Where I is in milli-amperes, V is in Volts, = ideality factor

= 38.68 1

0 = 1.00 109
= 0 (exp (

Page 3 of 3