Vol.

: 289
11th April,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View:

Earning season will provide next trigger

CompanyUpdate
2

As expected The RBI has reduced the rates by 25 bps and the market participants were disappointed
Aroundthe
as they were expecting rate cut of 50 bps. But looking to the overall policy, the changes made by The
Economy

3 RBI are really welcome by the bankers. The cut in daily CRR maintenance by 5% and decreasing the
gap between repo and reverse repo are really the steps in right direction. The statements that the mone
tary policy will remain accommodative and the confidence to achieve the targeted inflation rates next
KnowledgeCorner 3 year are big positives from the policy. The expectations of gradual growth recovery in 2017 assuming

the normal monsoon is also dependable considering The Government adhering the fiscal road map.
MutualFund
4

The rate cut and other factors like fall in commodity prices and gradual recovery in economy will boost
CommodityCorner5 the earning recovery process. Even though there are not many expectations from earning front, the conditions are set for marginal revenue recovery starting this quarter. The international investors fraternities

are all convinced that India is having positive / improving important economic parameters and is the
ForexCorner
6 brightest star in the world economy. The gradual reduction in interest rate structure and stagnant infla
tion with healthy current account position is providing a platform for gradual earnings recovery. TechniReportCard
7 cally the market remains in a range with moderate positive bias. It is very difficult to judge the next move
from Federal Reserve as the opinions from the members and chairwoman are confusing. Considering

the uncertain international trend, it is important to focus on local issues and trend which is improving
ShortTermCallStatus8 gradually. Technically any rise above 7750 will take the market to higher levels, while any fall below

7400 / 7450 range will be negative for the market.

Editor&Contributor
MargiShah
Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

SpecialContributors
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

Company Update : Mold-Tek Packaging Limited

Company Basics
533080

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

5.00
7.57

MOLDTKPAC

P/E (x) (TTM)

18.23

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

3.02
1.0354
20.06

BSE Code
NSE Symbol

Financial Basics

EQUITY (` in Cr.)

13.85

MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

382.14

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
2.68
17.15
33.91
0.00
46.27
0.00

Valuation : MOLDTEKPAC is trading at `146. We recommend Buy with target price of `179.valuing stock
18.23xFY18E EPS of `9.84. The stock currently trades at 20.17x of FY16E, 16.81x of FY17E and 14.01x of FY18E.
Company Overview

Established in 1986, Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is the leader in rigid plastic packaging in India.
Mold-Tek Packaging Limited is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for lubes, paints,
food and other products. The Company designs and manufactures standard airtight and pilfer - proof pails as
well as customized containers to meet customer's packaging requirements.
Investment Rational
Market leader in Pail Packaging
MPL has developed 'Square pail' with IML decoration for the first time in India. Through this innovative product
range, Mold-Tek is entering into `1000crore edible oil packaging segment thereby expanding its arena of
operations beyond its traditional paint and lube industry.
Positive response from leading edible oil players
MPL has received positive response from leading edible oil companies such as ConAgra Foods, Ghodawat Foods,
Allana Group and Adani Wilmar. The 5 & 15 litre edible oil pack sales should pick up from third quarter and the
Companys capacities are being expanded in all its three major plants - Hyderabad, Daman and Satara to cater to
the expected demand from this new segment.
Pioneer in In Mould Labeling (IML)
Most of the clients started shifting to IML decorated pails from traditional silk screen printing. As IML offers
photographic finish and hands free operation, many paint, lube and food companies are gradually shifting to
IML. This enables Mold-Tek to lead from the front, as it is way ahead of the rest of the competition in IML
decoration in India. Majority of the clientele are actively considering IML containers. Going forward, this segment
is likely to contribute significantly to the top and bottom lines of the Company.
- 2-

Vol.:
289
11th April,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) hit eight-month high
of 52.4 in March 2016, data showed on Monday, 4 April 2016. The index rose from 51.1 in February 2016.

Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) announcement of a reduction in its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate by
25 basis points (bps) after a monetary policy review came in line with market expectations.

On the economic front, the outcome of a monthly survey showed that growth in India's services sector
accelerated last month on the back of a marked and accelerated increase in new business.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Among key macro economic announcements, the government is scheduled to release industrial production
data for February 2016 on Tuesday, 12 April 2016. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew negative 1.5%
year-on-year (yoy) in January 2016.

On the global front, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2016 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 12 April
2016. Trade Balance data in China will be unveiled on Tuesday, 12 April 2016.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2016 will be unveiled on Thursday, 14 April 2016. Bank of
England (BOE) will decide on interest rates on Thursday, 14 April 2016. China Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
data and Industrial Production data will be declared on Thursday, 14 April 2016.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Tue: IIP data for the month of February 2016, Bajaj Corp, RIIL earning
2. Fri: Infosys, DCB Bank, Blue Dart express earning
3. Sat : Gujarat Hotels earning

Knowledge Corner :
Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is used to measure the change over time of the average price of goods produced domestically.

PPI is divided into three levels. The first is the PPI commodity Index, which shows the average price change over a certain time period
(usually a month) for commodities like crude oil and coal.

PPI of finished goods is a direct indicator of the near-term level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- 3-

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Axis Long Term Equity Fund

AMC

Axis Asset Management Company

Type

Tax Planning

Category

Open-ended and Equity

Launch Date

December 2009

Fund Manager

Jinesh Gopani

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 6677.0 crore as on Feb 29, 2016

Financial

30.89

Automobile

13.13

Healthcare

11.98

Technology

8.64

Chemicals

7.76

FMCG

5.77

Cons Durable

5.36

Engineering

3.48

Diversified

2.82

Services

2.75

History

2013

2014

2015

2016

NAV (Rs)

17.26

28.69

30.61

29.12

Total Return (%)

16.51

66.18

6.70

-4.89

9.75

34.79

10.76

-2.00

12.13

30.71

8.18

-0.97

1/37

6/73

19/73

34/81

52 Week High (Rs)

17.27

28.69

32.84

52 Week Low (Rs)

13.54

16.65

28.53

Equity

96.7

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

755.32

2983.00

6479.59

Debt

4.11

Expense Ratio (%)

2.85

2.55

2.51

Cash

-0.8

+/-Nifty 50
+/- S&P BSE 100
Rank (Fund/Category)

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

14.41

Sharpe Ratio

1.13

Beta

0.92

R-Squared
Alpha

0.83
15.27

Composition (%)

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Blend

Value

Large
Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Growth

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices gained on weekly basis amid further indications of slowing economic conditions after the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said U.S. GDP hardly grew during the first quarter. The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting indicated that the central bank is unlikely to
raise interest rates before June due to concerns over global economic growth. The metal has been hemmed into a narrow range by uncertainty over the
path the U.S. central bank will take to raising rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in a conversation with former Fed chairmen on Thursday, said the U.S.
economy is still on track to warrant further interest rate hikes. Several other members considered raising rates in March, the minutes showed. Citing
evidence that the economy was expanding at a moderate pace, improved labor market conditions and continued firming of inflation, the members discussed the possibility of raising the Fed Funds Rate even further. But U.S. interest rate futures still see a less than 20 percent chance of a rate hike in
June. Data from the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, showed its holdings are little changed this
week after posting their first weekly outflow this year last week. China's gold reserves stood at 57.79 million fine troy ounces at the end of March, up
from 57.5 million at the end of February, the central bank said. Demand for physical gold from Asia has also been muted of late. Reflecting a sharp pullback in inventories of nondurable goods, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing a bigger than expected decrease in U.S.
wholesale inventories in the month of February. Prices of yellow metal are up nearly 14% so far this year as expectations faded that the Fed would
move to normalize interest rates due to fears over a China-led global economic slowdown. Notably, the FOMC included 10 references to "gradual" accommodation when it came to monetary policy in the minutes.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 28850 SL 28400 TGT 29200-29700. BUY SILVER @ 36300 SL 35700 TGT 37000-37450.

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices last week ended with losses where nickel is the only counter that ended with 3% gains as the market took a
breather after sliding for the last some sessions, but slowing growth in top consumer China and global oversupply of the metal kept a lid on prices.
While other base metals ended with losses where zinc prices dropped heavily by around 5% followed by others as simmering demand concerns undermined prices and came under further selling pressure. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell in the past three weeks after
reaching a record in March, stocks have more than doubled since the start of the year. Rising stockpiles of metal at exchanges have fanned jitters about
demand, compounding the impact of souring sentiment in broader markets. China may be about to shock the global copper market by unleashing some
of its stockpiles of the metal, which are near record highs, onto the global market. Four traders of copper, including two from state-owned Chinese
smelters, said they expect China to raise its copper exports - which are usually tiny - in the next few months. China's refined copper exports averaged
less than 10,000 tonnes a month in the first two months of 2016, and around 17,000 a month in 2015. There are, however, signs that China's economy
is stabilising. The country's exports likely returned to growth for the first time in nine months in March, while the pace of bank lending may have picked
up. The second quarter is typically the strongest for demand in China, falling after the calendar and Lunar New Year holidays as factories manufacturing
copper products such as cables and wire reach peak steam before the northern hemisphere's summer break. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in a conversation
with former Fed chairmen on Thursday, said the U.S. economy was still on track to warrant further interest rate increases. But U.S. interest rate futures
still see a less than 20 percent chance of a rate rise in June. Russias aluminum exports grew significantly during the first two months of the year, reports showed, citing Russian Customs data. Exports of the light metal totaled 574,400 tonnes January-February 2016, up from 567,100 tonnes in the
same period last year.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 312 SL 318 TGT 305-298. BUY ZINC @ 115 SL 113 TGT 118.50-121. SELL NICKEL @ 582 SL 600 TGT
565-550. Aluminium 2 103 SL 105 TGT 100.50-99. SELL LEAD @ 116 SL 119 TGT 113.20-110.

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, crude oil prices ended with around 6.5% gains amid renewed hopes from top Kuwait officials that a comprehensive
OPEC-Non OPEC production freeze can be completed without cooperation from Iran. Russia's oil production could fall in April, sources said, while the
country's energy minister expressed hopes that producer nations could agree to an output freeze at a meeting in Doha later this month. Oil exports from
Iraq's southern ports have risen to about 3.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in average in April, more than 3.29 million bpd recorded in March. Such an
increase is only adding to the current huge supply glut that many OPEC and non-OPEC producers are trying to reduce by capping their output at January levels, and also boosting oil prices. The oil producers are scheduled to meet in Doha, Qatar on April 17. Still, the market remains skeptical, saying
the production must be notably slashed, not only frozen, as the long-term effect on oil prices will be limited. On the oversupply story, market intelligence
agency Genscape said that crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by about 255,800 barrels. Still, the most important data showed
earlier last week that crude oil inventories in the US fell finally after seven straight weeks of rises. The Energy Information Administration reported a fall
of 4.9 million barrels for the week to April 1, while the market had bet on another increase. Natural gas made gains for the week of more than 3% with
traders divided about whether the market can rebound from a record glut. Prices have been rising in recent weeks as speculators bet that massive
spending cuts from producers, and demand from warm weather and cheap prices are likely to help futures recover from historic lows. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 1 rose by 12 billion cubic feet, compared
to expectations for a gain of 8 billion. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.480 trillion cubic feet, 40.6% higher than levels at this time a year ago
and 35.3% above the five-year average for this time of year.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2550 SL 2400 TGT 2680-2850. BUY NAT.GAS @ 125 SL 118 TGT 132-145.

- 5-

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee inched higher at commencement

on Monday, 11 April 2016 and strengthened further
thereafter on increased selling of the US currency by
exporters and banks amid higher opening in the domestic equity market.

The domestic currency opened at Rs 66.45 against

the dollar and climbed to a high of 66.33 so far
during the day.

In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last

seen trading at 66.39.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures

the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted
basket of six major currencies, was last quoted at
94.22.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Last week USD-INR pair had made new low and then bounced back from its lows of 66.31 to close at 66.70 levels. Rupee
is oversold in charts and has huge monthly support at 66.00 levels. So, the trading range for week should be 66.00-67.30.
For long term, USD weakness, Moodys positive remarks on Narendra Modis Make in India campaign will help INR to
gain bids. According to the report, the inflows for the FDI in India were the highest in January 2016 and helped the current
account deficit (CAD) to a great extent.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.03

66.36

66.65

66.98

67.27

66.93

66.31

66.70

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

75.08

75.53

75.93

76.38

76.78

76.32

75.47

75.99

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

93.00

93.54

94.25

94.79

95.50

94.95

93.70

94.09

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

58.57

60.06

60.93

62.42

63.29

61.81

59.45

61.54

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty finally closed the week at 7555.20 thereby showed a net fall of 157 points on week to week Basis. On Weekly Chart, 1 week
trend down, 3 weeks trend up and 8 weeks trend is up. Exit long on rise to 7650-7704 as the opportunity arises. Further rise can be
seen on close above 7800. Nifty Daily chart is showing Consolidation as ADX is below 20. Downtrend will start only on breach of
7450. Trading range for week will be 7500-7750 as it is truncated week.

The trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and crude oil
price movement will dictate trend on the Markets.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Status

Mold-Tek Packaging

28/03/2016

138

146

179

6%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

145

181

9%

Buy

MT Educare

1/2/2016

164

181

230

10%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

330

550

-22%

Buy

Welspun syntax

23/11/2015

121

103

223

-15%

Buy

Natco Pharma

2/11/2015

509

440

636

-14%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1295

1374

14%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

282

368

20%

Buy

Infinite Computer Sol.

20/07/2015

190

198

255

4%

Buy

Ambika Cotton Mills

18/05/2015

880

822

1149

-7%

Buy

4/5/2015

298

272

430

-9%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

184

251

21%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

190

368

-25%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

313

337

41%

Buy

M&M

12/1/2015

1238

1233

1452

0%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

347

346

27%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

7/7/2014

39

37

45

-4%

Buy

Adani Port

5/7/2014

280

229

347

-18%

Accumulate

Stocks

Sadbhav Engineering
Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

19Feb16

DHFL

SELL

152

155

22Feb16

SRTRANFIN

BUY

817

23Feb16

PIDILITE

BUY

24Feb16

DLF

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

153.50 146.00

160

TA

5.1

833

825.00 850.00

802

TA

3.0

630

643

636.50 655.00

615

SL

3.0

SELL

84

86

85.00

80.00

89

SL

4.7

25Feb16

INDUSIND
BANK

SELL

816

832

824.00 800.00

852

TA

3.0

29Feb16

KSCL

SELL

334

345

339.50 322.00

360

SL

5.0

1Mar16

ARVIND

SELL

237

242

239.50 232.00

248

SL

3.7

2Mar16

TATAELAXSI BUY

1785

1825 1805.00 1870.00

1750

TA

3.6

3Mar16

MARUTI

SELL

3650

3580 3615.00 3500.00

3690

TA

3.3

10

4Mar16

TATASTEEL

SELL

283

290

286.50 276.00

300

SL

4.7

11

8Mar16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

905

923

914.00 945.00

885

TA

3.4

12

9Mar16

BANKBARODA SELL

140

144

142.00 137.00

148

TA

3.6

13

10Mar16

RELCAPITAL BUY

374

382

378.00 390.00

360

SL

4.2

14

11Mar16

SELL

411

418

414.50 404.00

430

SL

4.0

15

14Mar16

HINDUNILVR BUY

845

858

851.50 875.00

825

TA

2.8

16

15Mar16

TATAMOTOR BUY

362

368

365.00 376.00

348

TA

3.0

17

16Mar16

HDFC

SELL

1106

1128 1117.00 1080.00

1150

SL

3.8

18

17Mar16

ICICIBANK

BUY

223

233

228.00 240.00

210

TA

5.3

19

18Mar16

INDUSINDBK SELL

900

920

910.00 880.00

942

SL

3.5

20

21Mar16

VOLTAS

BUY

265

270

267.50 276.00

256

TA

3.2

21

22Mar16

INDIACEM

BUY

83

86

84.50

88.00

80

TA

4.1

22

23Mar16

BHEL

BUY

115

118

116.50 120.00

112

SL

3.8

23

28Mar16

TATASTEEL

BUY

314

320

317.00 328.00

304

TA

3.5

- 7-

AXISBANK

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

24

29Mar16

AXISBANK

SELL

421

428

25

30Mar16

CIPLA

SELL

500

510

26

31Mar16

BAJAJFINANCE BUY

27

4Apr16

28

5Apr16

29

6Apr16

30

7Apr16

HEROMOTO
BUY
CORP
ORIENTAL
SELL
BANK

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

424.50 411.00

440

SL

3.0

505.00 490.00

520

SL

2.9

6750

6860 6805.00 7120.00

6600

TA

4.6

2930

2990 2960.00 3140.00

2850

OPEN

0.0

SL

94

97

95.50

90.00

100

OPEN

0.0

SELL

182

186

184.00 174.00

191

OPEN

0.0

UNIONBANK SELL

126

129

127.50 120.00

133

OPEN

0.0

SBI

0.0
LT

8Apr16

31

SELL

1176

1198 1187.00 1132.00

1230

OPEN

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

20

64.51

SL+EXIT

11

35.48

TOTAL

31

100

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 289
11th April,2016