Month

Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10

Actual
360
381
391
601
666
693
561
601
721

Forecast
442
469
371
654
690
730
688
661
620

Mark Chockalingam:
The small letters indicate column indexes.

Month

Actual
Demand
Quantity

Forecasted
Demand

Forecast
Error

Absolute
Deviation (from
Mean Demand)

Cumulative
Absolute
Deviation

Formula
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Total
Average

(b-c)
360
381
391
601
666
693
561
601
721
4975.00
552.78

442
469
371
654
690
730
688
661
620
5325.00
591.67

Mchockalingam:
Error is with reference to the forecast.
Deviation is with reference to the Average
of the actual demand.

cumulative (e)

-82.00
-88.00
20.00
-53.00
-24.00
-37.00
-127.00
-60.00
101.00
-350.00
-38.89

192.78
171.78
161.78
48.22
113.22
140.22
8.22
48.22
168.22
1052.67
116.96

192.78
364.56
526.33
574.56
687.78
828.00
836.22
884.44
1052.67

Mchockalingam:
Deviation is with
reference to the mean of
the actual demand.

Sr. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Cumulative Forecast
Error

Absolute Forecast
Error

Cumulative Abs
Forecast. Error

Relative
Absolute Error

cumulative (d)

absolute (d)

Cumulative (h)

i/f

-82.00
-170.00
-150.00
-203.00
-227.00
-264.00
-391.00
-451.00
-350.00

82
88
20
53
24
37
127
60
101
592.00
65.78

Forecast Metrics
Number of Observations
Arithmetic Mean of Actual Demand
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation
Mean Percent Error (MPE)
Mean Absolute Percent Error ( MAPE)
Forecast Bias
Weighted Absolute Percent Error (WMAPE)
MAD-Mean Ratio
Forecasting Efficiency Quotient
R-Square
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)
Median Absolute Percent Error (MdAPE)
Tracking Signal
Geometric Mean of Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE)
Durbin-Watson
Mean Absolute Scaled Error

0.43
0.47
0.36
0.42
0.39
0.37
0.52
0.56
0.56

82.00
170.00
190.00
243.00
267.00
304.00
431.00
491.00
592.00

Value
9
552.78
65.78
140.69
25%
-9%
13%
-7.04%
11.90%
11.90%
53.25%
0.69
5,506
74.20
10%
-5.32
0.45
1.14
0.84

Absolute %
Error

Delta between
subsequent
Demand
Observations

d/b

h/b

Running Mean
Absolute
Signed % Error
Deviation (MAD)
k
Running Mean of
(h)
82.00
85.00
63.33
60.75
53.40
50.67
61.57
61.38
65.78

23%
23%
5%
9%
4%
5%
23%
10%
14%
115%
13%

-23%
-23%
5%
-9%
-4%
-5%
-23%
-10%
14%
-77%
-9%
MASE

21
10
210
65
27
132
40
120
625.00
78.13
0.84
Mchockalingam:

Mchockalingam:
Mean percent Error - Not a recommended method
since extremely small values will heavily influence this
calculation.
Recommended method is to use the Forecast Bias.

MASE: Mean Absol

Formula=MAD/MAD

MASE does not hav

ed method
influence this

ecast Bias.

Tracking signal

Forecast Error
Squared
Error^2

(cumulative (d)/k)

(b-c)^2

-1.00
-2.00
-2.37
-3.34
-4.25
-5.21
-6.35
-7.35
-5.32

Squared Deviation Error Auto-correlation:

from the Mean [(Error at T) - (Error at
(Deviation)^2
(T-1)]^2
q

6,724
7,744
400
2,809
576
1,369
16,129
3,600
10,201
49,552
5,506

37,163
29,508
26,172
2,325
12,819
19,662
68
2,325
28,299
158,342
17,594

Mchockalingam:
MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error
Formula=MAD/MAD attained on Historical sales
MASE does not have an intuitive explanation and not widely adopted.

36
11,664
5,329
841
169
8,100
4,489
25,921
56,549

Sr. No

Paramaeter

Formula

Mean

Standard Deviation

R-Square

Adjusted R-Square

Durbin-Watson

Forecast Error

MAPE

Root Mean Square

Error

MAD

MAD

10

MASE

11

MAPE

Relative Absolute
Error

12

13

Forecasting
Efficiency Quotient

FEQ

CV WMAPE
CV

ormula

symbols used
n
Y, A
F
e
k

P(ij)
Tj

WMAPE
CV

Predicted value
Target Value

symbols used
Number of observations/sample space
Actual value
Forecast Value
error
number of parameters

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
Dec-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Absolute Deviation (from Mean Demand)

Jun-10
Absolute Forecast Error

Aug-10

Sep-10

1200.00

1000.00

800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
Dec-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Cumulative Absolute Deviation

Jun-10

Cumulative Abs Forecast. Error

Aug-10

Sep-10