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TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: PAUL HARSTAD AND MIKE KULISHECK


DATE: APRIL 27, 2010
RE: NEW SURVEY IN HAWAII’S 1ST CD SHOWS CASE WITH CLEAR LEAD OVER HANABUSA

Our April 24 to 26 survey among 506 likely voters in Hawaii’s 1st CD special election shows
Democrat Ed Case virtually tied with Republican Charles Djou, but leading on every
dimension over Democrat Colleen Hanabusa.

 While all three congressional candidates are equally known, Ed Case is easily the most
popular, with an impressive feelings score of 63% favorable to 24% unfavorable. A 55%
majority of voters are favorable toward Charles Djou while 29% are unfavorable. And
Colleen Hanabusa is polarizing with equal favorable (41%) and unfavorable (43%)
feelings.
 In the overall 3-way vote, Democrat Case (with 34%) is nearly tied with Republican Djou
(36%) with Democrat Hanabusa a distant third (20%). However, among most likely
voters, Djou has a modest lead of 39% to 31% over Case, with 20% for Hanabusca –
illustrating the vulnerability of losing this seat to the Republicans.
 Even women prefer Case by 36% to 23% over Hanabusa, with 31% for Djou.
 In a key leading indicator question, Hanabusa has alienated voters lately to a striking
extent: in the last few weeks 25% of voters say they are more likely to support her while a
58% majority are less likely to support her (net minus -33%). For Case, the results are
42% more likely, 29% less likely (net plus +13%). And for Djou, it is 46% more likely and
37% less likely (net plus +9%). This is a pivotal predictor of recent trends in voter opinion
that cannot be ignored.

Furthermore, all of the crucial projective questions in the survey point to Ed Case as the
candidate far better positioned to prevail over Djou – in striking contrast with Hanabusa.

 More voters choose Case as their second choice (40%) than either Hanabusa (21%) or
Djou (15%) combined. Case is chosen overwhelmingly by both Hanabusa voters (Case
by 67% to 15% for Djou) and by Djou voters (Case by 73% to 9% for Hanabusa). But
Case voters opt for Hanabusa as their second choice by only 53% to 35% for Djou.
 Indeed, in a series of hypothetical 2-way races, Case beats Djou by 47% to 39% and
Case bests Hanabusa by 61% to 23%. But Djou beats Hanabusa by 48% to 38%.
 Lastly, when non-Case voters were asked the chance they would support him in a 3-way
race, his support could grow from 34% by another 21% who say there is a fair chance
they could support him – for a total of 55%. Djou does nearly as well by expanding his
original 36% by another possible 13% – for a total of 49%. But Hanabusa’s potential
support is much more limited: besides her original 20%, another 16% say there is a fair
chance they would support her – for a total of just 36%.

The bottom line is that with a split-Democratic vote, this congressional is more likely than not
to fall into Republican hands. Ed Case is the only candidate who can beat Charles Djou in
this multi-candidate special election in May.

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