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Table of
Contents

Foreword 3

Expect the unexpected 4

Britain in the EU in a
post-election world 6

Election factoids 8

Seats to watch 10

Where were you when...? 12

Swingometer 13

The balance of power 14

A Cameron Government? 16

About Burson-Marsteller 18

1
 The one certain outcome
from this election will
be the creation of a new
government – of whatever
political colour.

2

Matt Carter
CEO, Burson-Marsteller UK
Firstly I’d like to welcome you to tonight’s
event – I hope you enjoy the evening, the
panel discussion and the debate itself.
To accompany the event we’ve produced a
Burson-Marsteller Election Brochure which
includes perspectives and viewpoints from
political strategists and experts in the field –
including US election strategist and B-M CEO
Mark Penn and former Tory MP and Cameron
adviser Andrew MacKay.
The one certain outcome from this election
will be the creation of a new government –
of whatever political colour. For business this
presents both an opportunity, to engage the
government on the big issues that will help
business grow and succeed in Britain, but also
a challenge – to ensure that their issues and
concerns are reflected in the thinking at the
highest level.
At Burson-Marsteller we have an experienced
and dynamic Public Affairs team drawn from
senior political practitioners of all major parties
– Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat – so
that whatever the result on May 7th, we are well
placed to support your campaigns and get across
the issues that matter to your business.
Foreword
And to help you navigate the complexities of the
new Parliament, Burson-Marsteller is offering
your business a bespoke Political Healthcheck.
Our expert team will be happy to sit down
with you and talk through the challenges and
opportunities the new Parliament could present
your business and plan your strategy for success.
If you are interested in learning more about the
Political Healthcheck and how it could help your
company, please don’t hesitate to get in touch
with me at matt.carter@bm.com.
The attached USB card (which will hopefully
come in handy for your own files) also contains
a brief film explaining what Burson-Marsteller
does and how you can find out more.
I hope you enjoy the evening.
Best wishes
Matt Carter
3
 Expect the
unexpected –
The 2010
UK Election
Campaign
Mark Penn
CEO, Burson-Marsteller worldwide
With a week to go before the poll, the 2010
UK election has already taken so many
twists and turns that the safest prediction
at this point is to continue to expect
the unexpected.
From the explosive revelations brought to
light in the expenses scandal last year, to the
Cleggmania that has gripped the UK over the
last two weeks, this has been an election that
has put parties in a state of permanent crisis
and left the traditional campaign playbook
in tatters.
The introduction of US-style election debates
undoubtedly transformed the landscape from
what was a run-of-the-mill election into a real
contest and whatever the result, Nick Clegg has
earned a prominence in British politics he
struggled to win before.
4
By contrast, the Conservative campaign has
moved from supreme confidence to nervous
jitters, and from looking a certainty for office
back in 2009, they are now fighting hard to win
any majority at all.
And Labour has moved from being almost neck
and neck with the Tories at the beginning of the
campaign to trailing both the other parties in
third place – a position which if repeated in
the actual election would surely mark the
end of Gordon Brown’s Premiership.
The campaign itself has in many ways become
more centralised – with a greater focus on
national events like the Leaders’ Debates and
fewer leaders’ visits around the country – but
the election itself is going to be won and lost
in lots of local battles, many of which will be
decided by only a handful of votes.
And contrary to the traditional wisdom that the
‘incumbency’ effect means sitting MPs start with
an inbuilt advantage, the negative coverage of
the expenses scandal and the massive number
of MPs standing down this time means that
any previous benefit for incumbents is likely
to be negated.
Many a Presidential
candidate in the US has
triumphed at the start of
the debate series only to
fade by polling day.
As polling day approaches, the polls would
suggest it is still wide open and the performance
of the Leaders in this third debate could really
make all the difference.
For me, in this debate Brown has to finally
show his vision for the future. He’s known
as Mr Policy but just standing on his solid
handling of the economic crisis in the past
isn’t enough for an electorate who want to
know what their future government will
do for them.

Cameron needs to finally connect with the

change British people want in a way that
he hasn’t been able to so far. As a typical
front-runner, Cameron was caught out by
playing it cautious early on in the campaign.
Continuing on that path is not a luxury he
can any longer afford – he has to come out
fighting again as he did last week. This has been an election
And for Clegg, the dramatic rise in his
that has put parties on a
standing has brought with it its own state of permanent crisis
challenges in greater scrutiny and examination and left the traditional
of the Lib Dems and their policies, which
judging from last week’s performance may
campaign playbook
just be starting to eat into his new-found in tatters.
support. Many a Presidential candidate in the
US has triumphed at the start of the debate
series only to fade by polling day. Clegg needs
to avoid this fate if he really wants to be the
surprise success in this election.

Mark Penn is the global CEO of

Burson-Marsteller, who advised Tony
Blair in his 2005 race, Bill Clinton in his
re-election and Hillary Clinton in 2008.
He was the strategic adviser to the US
presidential debates in 1996 and over
20 presidential primary debates in 2008.

5
 Britain in the
EU in a post-
election world
Jeremy Galbraith
CEO, Burson-Marsteller Europe,
Middle East and Africa
Britain’s place in the European Union has
been a hot political issue since the UK joined
the EEC in 1973 – and even before then, as
Britain pondered its post war role in Europe.
Controversy about Britain’s relationship with
the EU reached its peak in the early-to-mid
1990s with the civil war in John Major’s ailing
government caused by the Maastricht Treaty.
Despite public concern about the Lisbon
Treaty, Labour has successfully avoided allowing
Europe to become an all consuming political
issue during its 13 years in office. And despite
a generally eurosceptic public there is little
evidence that Europe is an issue that determines
a significant number of votes at general
elections, although the UK Independence
Party has had impressive results at the
last two European elections.
I don’t see this election being any different
despite some broken European promises from
Labour and the Tories and the Liberals’ very
pro-EU stance which is clearly out of step with
public opinion. While last week’s second leaders’
6
election debate started with a question on
Europe the issue didn’t dominate the debate
at all in a way it would have done in the 1990s.
The Lisbon Treaty, which re-packaged much
of the draft EU constitution, came without a
referendum, despite a promise in 2005 from all
three main parties to hold a vote on the original
text. The fact is that none of the three major
parties has anything to gain by making Europe
a key election issue. Even the Tories, whose views
are probably closest to public opinion, don’t want
to re-ignite internal debate on Europe.
A (unlikely) Labour victory on 6 May would
promise more of the same in terms of EU
policy – hoping to avoid any treaty changes but
working with the EU to address issues such as
the economy, energy and climate change. But it
is telling that the Labour manifesto mentions
‘Europe’ only a handful of times in a 78-page
document – and then only in general terms.
The Liberal Democrats have perhaps the most
‘quietly explosive’ policy – a referendum on EU
membership, which would be the first such poll

Despite a heavily
eurosceptic public
there is little evidence
that Europe is an issue
that determines
significant numbers
of votes at general
elections
since 1975. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems’ manifesto is
very pro-European (unlike their opponents, they
still propose to join the single European currency,
albeit when the economic conditions are right
and after a referendum). The Lib Dems’ leader,
Nick Clegg, has strong Euro-credentials (he is a
former MEP and European Commission official).
Wary of attacks on his background, he says that
he is a ‘critical friend’ of the EU and that he is the
only party leader to ‘understand’ the Union’s
workings properly. If there is to be a hung
parliament, it is not out of the question that a
‘Lib-Lab’ agreement could see Clegg as foreign
secretary (possibly with the unpopular Gordon
Brown ditched as prime minister and replaced by
a more acceptable Labour figure, such as David
Miliband). This is, of course, the dream scenario
for many in Brussels!
Nevertheless, a Conservative victory – or at least
David Cameron as prime minister – remains the
most likely scenario next week. And political
commentators suggest this outcome could have
profound effects on Britain’s relationship with its
EU partners. I am not so sure.
David Cameron plans to ‘repatriate’ powers from
the EU – notably on social policy, working time
and justice and home affairs. He repeated this
commitment during the leaders’ debate last
week. But this will not be as easy as he makes
it sound. This would require support from other
EU member states – and no government has
pledged to help. Politically, there would be little
appetite from either Nicolas Sarkozy or Angela
Merkel to ride to Mr Cameron’s rescue (they are
still irked by his decision to take his MEPs out of
the centre-right EPP group in the European
Parliament last year – a pledge that had helped
him win the Tory leadership in 2005). Other EU
countries may complain about ‘social dumping’
if rules do not apply uniformly (and therefore
make Britain an easier place to employ people
than other member states). The UK can already
opt-out of justice issues – but if it does so, it risks
losing tools that it finds useful, like the Europe-
wide arrest warrant, or a common approach to
asylum policy.
The Tories also plan a sovereignty act to highlight
the UK parliament’s supremacy – which could
put the UK at odds with EU law (despite Tory
claims that there is a precedent in Germany).
Referenda would be compulsory for
all future treaty changes – presenting a major
block to future EU constitutional reform.
There is much unease in Brussels about a
potential Tory victory. But I am not convinced
that David Cameron will really want to put a
fight with Europe at the heart of a first term
back in power for the Conservatives. Will he
really want to re-ignite the febrile European
debate of the 1990s that helped to tear the
Conservatives apart when voters want him to
sort out the economy? A policy of grudging
cooperation, interspersed with the occasional
showdown, seems more likely to me than a
full-scale battle to repatriate powers.
7
 Election factoids
A post-war record of 147 MPs have stood down
at the 2010 Election. The tally (at the dissolution
of Parliament on 12th April 2010) surpasses the
116 MPs who stepped down in 1997, and the 128
retirements in 1945. In addition three seats were
vacant on the 12th, where the sitting MP has died
or resigned and no by-election had been held.

At the General Election, the UK will gain four

extra constituencies, all in England, raising the
total number to 650, from 646 in 2005. Boundary
changes affecting more than 500 constituencies
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are
coming into force.

The last time two general elections were held

in one year was 1974. The first general election
was held on Thursday 28th February, the second
on Thursday 10th October. The UK’s last hung
parliament followed the February election.

The Rt Hon Tom Clarke is the MP with the

largest majority. He won the seat of Coatbridge,
Chryston & Bellshill in Glasgow for Labour with
a majority of 19,519 in 2005.

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 The smallest majority, of 37, is being defended by
Labour in the seat of Crawley, where incumbent
MP Laura Moffat has stood down.

Britain’s youngest MP in the last Parliament

was former management consultant for
Deloitte, Conservative Chloe Smith. At 27, she
was elected in a July 2009 by-election triggered
by the resignation of the Labour MP Ian Gibson.
At the end of the 2009-10 session the oldest MP
was the Rt Hon Ian Paisley, MP for North Antrim,
born on 6 April 1926. He has now stood down.

To form a Government following the election,

the Conservatives will need their largest swing
in nearly 80 years. They require a 6.9% swing –
bigger than any they have managed at general
elections since 1931, assuming a straight switch
between Labour and Tory with no change in
other parties’ vote share.

A new party has been formed in Northern

Ireland, Ulster Conservatives and Unionists
– New Force (UCUNF). This is the name of a
bipartisan electoral alliance in Northern Ireland
between the Ulster Unionist Party and the
Northern Ireland branch of the Conservative and
Unionist Party, a United Kingdom-wide party.

9
 Seats to
watch
Arfon
A new constituency following boundary
changes, Plaid Cymru are primed to take
advantage here.
Barking
BNP Leader Nick Griffin hopes to
improve upon the party’s third place
in 2005 and unseat Tourism Minister
Margaret Hodge.
Brent Central
Boundary changes pit two MPs against
each other: Labour’s Dawn Butler and
the Lib Dems’ Sarah Teather.
Ceredigion
A seat that rarely sees Labour or the
Tories get more than 20% of the vote
combined, the fight is between the
Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.
Dorset
Lib Dem pressure in this county
could unseat three Conservatives, in
Bournemouth West, Dorset North and
Dorset West.
Eastleigh
Lib Dem Chris Huhne looks vulnerable
with only a one per cent majority over
the Tories. Will the Lib Dem surge
be enough?
Glasgow East
Will the SNP be able to keep their
2008 by-election gain?
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Hampstead and Kilburn
Labour MP Glenda Jackson is battling to
retain her seat. Boundary changes have
cut her majority, boosting Lib Dem and
Tory chances.
Newcastle East and Wallsend
Government Chief Whip Nick Brown
faces a Lib Dem challenge for his seat.
Norwich South
Former Secretary of State Charles Clarke
is under pressure from the Lib Dems.
Ochil and South Perthshire
The SNP look to gain a key seat
from Labour.
Redditch
Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith
defends a 2,000 majority, a potential
high profile casualty.
St Austell & Newquay
Can the Tories break the Lib Dem
stronghold of Cornwall?
Watford
Labour MP Claire Ward faces a tough
challenge from both parties. Nick Clegg
visited here on the day the election was
announced.
York Outer
This new seat is a fight between the
Lib Dems and Tories. The Tories needs
to win to form a government.
 11
7
3
Edinburgh
Glasgow

9
Newcastle upon Tyne

Belfast

15
5 Leeds

Liverpool

1
Norwich

Birmingham
10
0
4 12 2
4
14 3 8
Cardiff
Bristol 2 6
6 1
Brighton

5
13 Plymouth Seats to watch

Where were you when...?

11
 Where were you when...?
This election could throw up all sorts of
surprises and here we take a look at some of
the seats with the potential to make history.
Brighton Pavilion
This seat offers a real chance for Green
Party leader Caroline Lucas to gain the first
seat for her party at Westminster. Brighton
Pavilion is a bohemian, progressive area
surrounded by more conventional suburbs
and Lucas offers an appealing manifesto
to the liberal electorate here.
Buckingham
The seat of the Speaker should by
convention remain unchallenged and John
Bercow MP does not have to worry about
Labour or Liberal Democrat competition.
However he does face a challenge from
former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who will
be hoping to exploit Bercow’s limited Tory
support and has strong backing from UKIP.
Edinburgh South West
Formerly a Conservative seat during the
1980s and early 90s, Edinburgh South West
fell to Labour in the 1997 landslide. Now
the seat of Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling, victory here is being hard
fought for by the Tories and unseating
Darling is not an unrealistic target.
12
Luton South
Normally considered a Labour stronghold,
incumbent MP Margaret Moran has been
under fire in the media and is standing
down. This seat has been the target of
some independents, including Esther
Rantzen. However they may succeed in
splitting the vote in Labour’s favour, rather
than posing a serious challenge.
Morley and Outwood
Morley and Outwood is a newly created
seat being fought by Brown’s right-hand
man Ed Balls. To all intents and purposes
it should be a solid Labour seat. However
Balls has been combating ‘Smeargate’
and the stories regarding his relationship
with Damien McBride. He is also facing
a vigourous Tory campaign in the seat,
behind a strong, local Tory candidate.
This could be a ‘Portillo Moment’
for Labour.
Poplar & Limehouse
Leaving his Bethnal Green and Bow
seat, George Galloway has turned to
Poplar and Limehouse to fight against
Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick. A key target
for the Tories, requiring a swing of just
under 6%, the party could be buoyed by
gentrification surrounding Canary Wharf
and encroachment on the Labour vote
from Galloway.
Swingometer –
How to calculate
the result
Electoral swings compare the results of two
elections in the same area. They are often
Election 2010 - What the
used to analyse the performance of parties key swings would mean:
over time, or in one election across different
electoral areas. 1.6% swing against Labour
This is the uniform national swing needed for
To calculate swing: add the rise in one party’s
Labour to lose their overall majority. This means
share in the vote to the fall in the second party’s
that there would be a hung parliament.
share of the vote. Divide your figure by two.
The resulting figure is the swing.
2.5% swing against Labour
Swing can be measured between each of the This is the uniform national swing needed
political parties. However most of the focus for the Liberal Democrats to hold the balance
in 2010 will be on the Labour to Conservative of power.
swing. Should the polls continue in the Liberal
Democrats’ favour, the swing towards yellow
will also impact the results of the two main
4.3% swing against Labour
This is the uniform national swing needed for
parties. Some unusual effects of swing can
the Conservatives to become the largest party.
be seen, particularly in Scotland and Wales in
They would still not have an overall majority
constituencies where nationalist parties are
to be able to form a government.
strong. For example, several seats will fall to
Plaid Cymru by default in the event of a swing
from Labour to Conservative. 6.9% swing against Labour
This is the uniform national swing needed for
the Conservatives to gain an overall majority and
In 2005, the five largest Labour to
therefore form the next government. Since the
Conservative swings were in:
Second World War, only Tony Blair in 1997 has
• Blaenau Gwent (17.3%) recorded a larger swing (10.2%) than the one
• Poplar & Canning Town (11.6%) the Tories now need to reach the magic number
• Birmingham, Sparkbrook & of 326 MPs to form a Government.
Small Heath (9.9%)
• South Staffordshire (9.1%)
• Enfield, Southgate (8.7%)

13
 The balance
of power

Gavin Grant
Chairman, Burson-Marsteller UK

Some voters may well say “Parliament

should be hung” but that view probably
reflects the expenses scandal rather
than the political make-up!

The combined impact of revelations about MPs’

expenses and voters’ distrust of politicians has
seen a recent narrowing of the opinion polls that
has made the prospect of a hung parliament,
where no one party has an overall majority,
more likely.

Westminster has seen two hung parliaments in

modern times. In February 1974, Edward Heath
called his “who governs Britain?” crisis election
and lost his majority but former Labour PM
Harold Wilson failed to win one. Despite their
6 million votes, the Liberals won few seats but,
nevertheless, Heath approached Jeremy Thorpe
to form a coalition. Even that, if successful, would
not have produced a majority and consequently
Thorpe said “no”. Heath’s government fell and
Harold Wilson re-entered Downing Street leading
a minority government.

Wilson called an election in October ‘74 and

won a slim majority but decided to resign later
in that Parliament, making way for Jim Callaghan
to become PM. Through by-election losses,

14
Callaghan’s majority vanished and the
Parliament was hung again. Callaghan was
successful in his negotiations with the new
Liberal Leader, David Steel and the Lib/Lab
pact was born. The pact died in the “winter
of discontent” when Margaret Thatcher was
swept to power on the back of the first,
modern communications campaign.
Margaret Thatcher’s and
Tony Blair’s landslides mask
a dramatic shift in the UK’s
political landscape that
makes hung parliaments
more likely.
Britain approached a hung parliament in the
last days of John Major’s administration as
by-election defeats came close to wiping out
his majority. In addition, internal Conservative
battles over the EU meant that his small
majority disappeared on key votes, leaving
Major reliant on the Liberal Democrats.
Margaret Thatcher’s and Tony Blair’s landslides
mask a dramatic shift in the UK’s political
landscape that makes hung parliaments more
likely. Votes and MPs from outside the Labour
and Conservative ranks have increased hugely
and over 30% of voters don’t vote for the “big
two”. The last parliament had almost 100 non
Labour/Tory MPs drawn from 10 Parties/
pressure groups.
There is also a precedent in Scottish politics,
where a minority SNP Government is in coalition
with the Greens. Their combined strength is
not a majority, so new laws need the support
of one or more of the Labour, Liberal Democrat
or Conservative parties.
.
What happens if a
hung parliament arrives
on May 7th?
Several factors define the options:
• Protocol counts
As outgoing PM, Gordon Brown will be
asked if he can form a government. Only
if he says “no” does the Leader of the
Opposition get a chance.
• Can two tango?
Nick Clegg will be hoping that if there
isn’t a clear winner, that he is in a position
to do a deal with either of the main
parties. If that can only happen with one
it weakens Clegg’s negotiating position.
• Is three a crowd?
Maybe adding the Liberal Democrats
alone is not enough. That’s dream time
for the Nationalists!
• Will the Liberal Democrats
play ball at all?
Nick Clegg and Vince Cable know the
risks. They could alienate supporters and
activists from the opposite wing of their
party to that of their coalition choice.
Equally if they don’t ‘go in’ they risk
credibility and the backing of the activists
and supporters closer to whichever of
main player makes the offer.
So damned if they do,
and damned if they don’t?
One thing’s for sure, with Parliament
projected to contain 40 – 50 percent
first time MPs, the biggest shake-up
since the Second World War; we can
expect to see an unprecedented new
chapter in British politics.
15
 A Cameron
Government?

Andrew MacKay
Former Conservative MP and now
Senior Adviser, Burson-Marsteller UK

On the morning of May 7th we will be since the war to win outright still remains
waking up to one of three scenarios – the high, in which case David Cameron will be
same Government, a Cameron Government presiding over a parliament with a huge
or a hung Parliament. Throughout the number of new MPs.
campaign, the latter two options have
seemed the more likely outcomes. So let
me take them in reverse order.

I predict that if we do end up with no party in With nearly 150 MPs

overall control then we won’t see the creation standing down at the
of a formal coalition between a big party and
a small one. Instead, the Prime Minister will
election, the scale of
be running the gauntlet of the division lobbies turnover in MPs will make
on each and every issue, taking control of the the next Parliament look
nation and its deficit, and eye ball to eye ball and feel very different.
with the other parties who might not welcome
his threat of an early fresh election.

With nearly 150 MPs standing down at the

election, the scale of turnover in MPs will make
the next Parliament look and feel very different.
There is an unpredictability about the new
Members, with many likely to be voting on local
issues and independent agendas. The ability of
the whips to deliver votes may be reduced and
the impact of the churn is yet to be seen.
The possibility that the Tories might just out-do
their performance in every general election
How this cast of characters will bed down
in the new Parliament that will have squeamish
decisions to take on tax and spend remains to
be seen. However, Prime Minister Cameron does
have a deep pool of talent from which to draw.
George Osborne has been a close ally and
fundamental member of the Cameron
campaign and will be rewarded with the keys
to Number Eleven should the Tories triumph.

16
I’d expect William Hague to remain at the
Foreign Office where as the (intellectual!)
John Prescott of his era, he would be the figure
to whom David Cameron – and natural Tories
– could turn for advice and reassurance from
its traditional roots.
Michael Gove has the responsibility of making
sure the Tories’ flagship education policy, raising
standards in schools including giving every
parent access to a good school on the Swedish
model, has taken root by the next election.
Jeremy Hunt and Greg Clarke could well be
given promotions. Another high priority
legislative area for the Conservatives, likely to
appear quickly in Parliament, would be reform
of public services to deliver better value for
money through decentralisation, accountability
and transparency with particular emphasis
on encouragement to form employee led
co-operatives.
Of course, there remains the third possible
outcome of this general election – the re-
election of the Government we already have.
A victory for the beleaguered Prime Minister
would be a personal triumph for Gordon
Brown, achieved against the odds and tasting
particularly sweet after years in Tony Blair’s
shadow. It would undoubtedly leave the Prime
Minister and his Chancellor-in-waiting Ed Balls,
masters of all they survey. The question then
arises, would it be business as usual, or an
emboldened Gordon Brown seeking to
govern more in his own image?
17
 About
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 Contact
Matt Carter, Chief Executive

Burson-Marsteller
24-28 Bloomsbury Way
London WC1A 2PX

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7300 6234

Email: matt.carter@bm.com

www.bursonmarsteller.co.uk

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