Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Market-Based Valuation
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
Q15-1.
Q15-2.
Q15-3.
Q15-4.
Q15-5.
Q15-6.
Recall that the residual income operating model yields the following formula for the
PE ratio:
PE [(1+re) /re] [1 + (Present value of expected changes in RI Dividend /
Earnings)]
If the company had a payout ratio of zero, the capitalization factor on current
earnings would be 11. This means a PE ratio of 11 implies that the market would
expect no growth in residual operating income. A PE ratio higher than 11 implies that
the market expects positive growth in residual operating income, and a PE ratio less
than 11 implies that the market expects negative growth in residual operating
income.
Q15-7.
This headline means that an analyst(s) from Goldman Sachs increased the price
target for Cisco Systems, based on an increased multiple of Ciscos earnings. This
analyst increased the multiple because she/he expected Cisco to show stronger
earnings growth in the future.
MINI EXERCISES
M15-8. (15 minutes)
Using the industry average PB of 7.1, the estimated intrinsic value of Burger Kings equity is
$5,652 million, computed as 7.1 x $796 million.
This equates to $41.65 per share, computed as $5,652 million / 135.7 million.
ROPI:
Company B:
ROPI:
ROPI:
Company B:
ROPI:
ROPI:
Company B:
ROPI:
ROPI:
Company B:
ROPI:
ROE
29.0%
27.9%
58.5%
57.8%
The market is most likely expecting future ROE to be highest for HSY. This is because it has
the highest PB ratio by far.
EXERCISES
E15-21. (20 minutes)
a. The price to net operating assets ratios for MDRX and MCK are 1.21 and 2.50, respectively.
b. The simple average of the two ratios is 1.86. Also, we could weight one of the two
companies more heavily if we believe its ratio is more relevant for valuing Cerner
Corporation.
Cerners estimated company intrinsic value is $2,760 million, using a 1.86 multiple on net
operating assets.
Cerners estimated equity intrinsic value is $4,110 million, computed as $2,760 million plus
nonoperating assets of $1,350 million.
Its estimated equity intrinsic value per share is $23.88, computed as $4,110 million / 172.1
million shares.
PE
17.67
12.11
9.33
7.67
6.56
b. A company with a cost of capital of 10% and no expected growth in residual income would
have a PE ratio of 11. A company with a cost of capital of 2% and no expected growth in
residual income would have a PE of 52. Consequently, we could explain the range by
claiming that all companies had a cost of capital between 2% and 10%. However, 2%
seems implausibly low for a cost of capital, and 10% does not seem sufficiently high for a
risky company. Therefore, it appears that differences in expectations about future residual
income must explain a fair amount of the variation in PE ratios.
PE
ROE
Description
167%
E . 1.
1.5
12
12.5%
B . 2.
1.5
40
3.8%
C . 3.
15
27%
D . 4.
0.7
23%
A . 5.
Stock
Price
PB
Current
BV per
Share
Trailing
4Q PE
Book
Value*
EPS
$ 30,016
$35.39
1.89
$18.34
11.88
848
$ 15,552
$2.98
0.16
67,578
87.19
10.55
8.44
16.80
775
6,541
5.19
0.61
Citigroup
148,886
29.89
1.17
25.86
8.03
4,981
128,809
3.72
0.14
Coca-Cola
143,928
62.28
7.32
8.51
23.59
2,311
19,667
2.64
0.31
McDonalds
69,534
58.79
4.65
12.63
21.22
1,183
14,941
2.77
0.22
3M
60,261
84.49
5.49
15.35
17.24
713
10,945
4.90
0.32
Wal-Mart
191,630
47.85
3.04
15.57
15.90
4,005
62,358
3.01
0.19
Exxon Mobil
503,364
92.13
4.24
21.68
13.47
5,464
118,460
6.84
0.32
Company
Alcoa
Boeing
CSO
(sh)
*Students answers for Book Value and ROE may vary due to rounding.
ROE*
PROBLEMS
P15-35. (40 minutes)
a. Identification of comparables
Ticker
Market
Cap
($ mil.)
GIB
EPS 5-Year
PB
Historical
Current Growth Rate
-
EQIX
9,380
3.84
JCOM
2,310
XXIA
QNST
VOCS
ROE
(T 4Q)
Debt-toEquity
(Prior Q)
20.65% 15.99%
0.73
3.84%
1.61
3.20
11.60% 16.53%
0.35
933
1.87
60.34%
4.68%
0.40
294
1.24
-15.91% -18.89%
0.36
269
7.72%
2.93
Basis of Exclusion:
Financial
Profitability Growth
Risk
12.57
-24.05%
%
0.01
NTES
8,650
2.74
26.59% 24.86%
0.05
ULTI
4,740
25.41
47.25% 16.86%
0.04
DMD
498
1.01
9.50% -0.81%
0.10
DRIV
554
1.41
-17.73% -4.44%
0.75
To value a firm as a multiple of book value using comparable firms, the comparable firms
should be selected so that they have similar profitability, growth, and risk. In doing so, we
know we are not going to find perfect matches, but seek to exclude the firms that are most
different from our firm of interest. On this basis, we exclude 6 of the 9 firms, which leaves
JCOM, XXIA, and DMD to provide the basis for valuing GIB.
=
=
x
x
PB ratio
2.03
Continued next page
P15-35. concluded
c. Memorandum to superior
MEMORANDUM
TO:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
The body of the memorandum should make the following points:
I estimated GIBs intrinsic value at $8,010 million; computed as its book value of $3,946 million
times a PB market multiple of 2.03.
To value a firm as a multiple of book value using comparable firms, the comparable firms should be
selected so that they have similar profitability, growth, and risk. On this basis, I excluded 6 of the 9
firms, which leaves JCOM, XXIA, and DMD to provide the basis for valuing GIB. I have indicated
on the attached table the reasons for excluding the other firms.
If you wish, I can prepare models using other valuation techniques, including discounted cash flows
and discounted residual operating income. These models incorporate estimates of future cash
flows and earnings for GIB. If we have a good handle on GIBs future prospects, these models can
generate more dependable estimates of intrinsic value.
A cordial closing that indicates willingness to discuss the issue further would be appropriate.
Ticker
GIB
EPS 5-Year
Historical
Growth Rate
ROE
(T 4Q)
Debt-toEquity
(Prior Q)
20.65%
15.99%
0.73
Basis of Exclusion:
Financial
Growth
Risk
EQIX
9,380
33.30
7.72%
3.84%
1.61
JCOM
2,310
13.31
11.60%
16.53%
0.35
XXIA
933
13.03
60.34%
0.40
QNST
294
14.40
-15.91%
0.36
VOCS
269
33.09
-24.05%
4.68%
18.89%
12.57%
NTES
8,650
9.86
26.59%
24.86%
0.05
4,740
67.40
47.25%
16.86%
0.04
DMD
498
26.43
9.50%
-0.81%
0.10
DRIV
554
29.06
-17.73%
-4.44%
0.75
ULTI
X
X
0.01
To value a firm as a multiple of PE using comparable firms, the comparable firms should be
selected so that they have similar growth and risk. In doing so, we know we are not going to
find perfect matches, but seek to exclude the firms that are most different from our firm of
interest. On this basis, we exclude 6 of the 9 firms, which leaves JCOM, XXIA, and DMD to
provide the basis for valuing GIB.
b. Estimate of equity intrinsic value
GIBs equity intrinsic value
$15,251 million
=
=
x
x
PE ratio
17.59
P15-36. concluded
c. Memorandum to superior
MEMORANDUM
TO:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
The body of the memorandum should make the following points:
I estimated GIBs intrinsic value at $15,251 million; computed as its earnings estimate of $867
million times a PE market multiple of 17.59.
To value a firm as a multiple of earnings using comparable firms, the comparable firms should be
selected so that they have similar growth and risk. On this basis, I excluded 6 of the 9 firms, which
leaves JCOM, XXIA, and DMD to provide the basis for valuing GIB. I have indicated on the
attached table the reasons for excluding the other firms.
If you wish, I can prepare models using other valuation techniques, including discounted cash flows
and discounted residual operating income. These models incorporate estimates of future cash
flows and earnings for GIB. If we have a good handle on GIBs future prospects, these models can
generate more dependable estimates of intrinsic value.
A cordial closing that indicates willingness to discuss the issue further would be appropriate.
18.0%
8.0%
2.9%
18.0%
3.0%
8.1%
8.0%
3.0%
17.8%
d. Recall that this valuation model assumes a constant ROE and a growth rate in perpetuity. In
case a, the implied growth rate is 2.9% (this is growth in residual income, not income). In
case b, the implied discount rate seems plausible. In case c, the ROE is what Wolverine
has achieved recently. Thus, the market expectations underlying the observed PB ratio
seem reasonable.
11.0%
9.0%
6.4%
11.0%
4.0%
7.9%
9.0%
4.0%
12.9%
d. Recall that this valuation model assumes a constant ROE and a growth rate in perpetuity. In
case a, the implied growth rate is 6.4% (this is growth in residual income, not income), which
might be difficult to sustain. In case b, the implied discount rate seems reasonable. In case
c, the ROE is higher than what CVS has achieved recently. Thus, the market expectations
underlying the observed PB ratio might be difficult to obtain. It is possible that investors are
assuming that CVSs acquisition of Caremark will substantially improve its performance
going forward.
15.0%
10.0%
15.0%
8.0%
10.0%
8.0%
8.6%
9.5%
17.4%
DISCUSSION POINTS
D15-44. (35 minutes)
a. The price to net operating assets ratios for Ralph Lauren and Gap are 3.45 and 5.70,
respectively.
b. The simple average of the two ratios is 4.58. You could weight one of the two companies
more heavily if you believe its ratio is more relevant for valuing Guess.
Guess estimated intrinsic company value is $3,508 million, using a 4.58 multiple on net
operating assets.
Guess estimated equity intrinsic value is $3,829 million, and its estimated equity intrinsic
value per share is $44.84.
c. The price to book value ratios for Ralph Lauren Gap are 2.73 and 5.27, respectively.
d. The simple average of the two ratios is 4.00. You could weight one of the two companies
more heavily if you believe its ratio is more relevant for valuing Guess.
Guess estimated equity intrinsic value is $4,348 million, using a 4.00 multiple on book
value. Guess estimated equity intrinsic value per share is $50.91.
c. There are a range of possible answers to this question. However, one should definitely
eliminate APO due to negative expected growth and HD, CAB, and DDS whose expected
growth rates exceed 15%.
If you are comfortable with the analysts forecast of 4.3%
earnings growth for Guess, then it would also make sense to eliminate HBI, TJX, ZQK and
ANF with growth rates over 10%. FL and MW have very low leverage, so they might be
eliminated. This leaves only PERY and KSS.
Continued next page
D15-46. concluded
d.
PB ratio observed = 2.32; PB* = PB 1 = 1.32
Case 1: Solve for implied growth rate
Assumed parameters
ROE
Discount rate, re
Implied parameter
Growth rate, (re + [PB* re] ROE) / PB*
Case 2: Solve for implied discount rate
Assumed parameters
ROE
Growth rate, g
Implied parameter
Discount rate, (ROE + [PB* g]) / (1+PB*)
Case 3: Solve for implied future ROE
Assumed parameters
Discount rate, re
Growth rate, g
Implied parameter
ROE, (PB* [re g]) + re
14%
11%
8.7%
14%
5%
8.9%
11%
5%
18.9%
SUBJECT:
Using the method of comparables with the suggested multiple of (Price Book) / R&D Expense
must be done with caution. The choice of comparable companies will be key and should be done
to match types of products as closely as possible. For example, when looking at Pfizer, companies
researching drugs specific to certain applications may be valued differently than those seeking
drugs with broad usage.
Another element of the use of this ratio is that it implies that all differences between price and book
arise due to the R&D efforts. However, if a companys accounting is conservative, there will be a
difference not attributable to the R&D. This must be considered when using this multiple. To value
a firm using multiples, the comparable firms should be selected so that they have similar
profitability, growth and risk.
If you would like, I can prepare models using other valuation techniques, including discounted
cash flows and discounted residual operating income. These models incorporate estimates of
future cash flows and earnings for the companies. If we have a good handle on their future
prospects, these models may generate more dependable estimates of intrinsic value.