YFB 3102 SMK SACRED HEART, math m p2 2015

Section A [45 marks]

Answer all questions in this section.

1.

The frequency distribution of the marks obtained by the 5S1 students in the first school
examination is as follows.
Number of students
Marks
60 69
2
70 79
8
80 89
7
90 - 99
15
(a) Calculate the median value, first quartile and third quartile values and hence draw the box plot.
[7 marks]
(b) The school decided to give the top scorers some prizes. The number of recipients only limited to
the top five percent of the students. Find the percentile of the prize recipient.
[2 marks]

2.

A game is played with a set of ten cards, which are numbered 11, 12, 13, 14, , 20 respectively.
The cards are placed in a bag and a player takes a card at random from the bag. If the number on this
card is prime (i.e. 11, 13, 17 or 19 ) , the player wins the game, and if the number is even the player
loses the game. If the number on the card is 15 the player takes a second card at random from the
nine remaining cards in the bag. The player wins the game if the number on the second card is prime
and loses the game otherwise.
Find the probability that in a particular game,

3.

(i)

The player wins,

[2 marks]

(ii)

Only one card is taken from the big given that the player loses.

[3 marks]

(a) The random variable X has a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation . Given
that P ( X < 30) = 0.14 and that P ( X< 60 ) = 0.79, Calculate the values of and , giving your
answer correct to three significant figures.
[5 marks]
(b) The random variable Y has a normal distribution with mean 10 and standard deviation 2.
Find the value of the constant a such that P (10a<Y < 10+a )=0.95 .
[5 marks]

For ten pairs of married couples from the Sibujaya town, the height of the husband ( x cm ) and the
height of the wife ( y cm ) are given as

x=1680, x 2=282 280, y =1620, y 2 =262 450, xy =272179.

Calculate the coefficient of correlation and comment on the result.

[ 3 marks ]

5.

The table below shows the prices of fish and the quantities of it bought by a housewife at the Sibu
Central wet market in January 2013 and January 2015.
Fish
Selar Kuning
Kembung
Bawal Putih
Tenggiri
Parang

January 2013
Price
Quantity
(RM per kg)
(kg)
4.00
5
8.00
3
10.00
2
12.00
2
11.00
2

January 2015
Price
Quantity
(RM per kg)
(kg)
5.00
6
10.00
2
14.00
1
13.00
2
12.00
1

( 2013 = 100 )
(a) Calculate the Laspeyres quantity index, and comment on the housewifes change in expenditure
on fish.
[ 3 marks ]
(b) Calculate the Passche price index, and comment on the housewifes change in expenditure on
fish.
[ 3 marks ]

6.

The following table shows the sale of a housing developer in Sibu for each quarter from 2010 to
2012.
Year
2010
2011
2012

1st Quarter
23
27
30

2nd Quarter
32
40
43

3rd Quarter
68
73
77

4th Quarter
33
37
43

(a) Plot a time series, and comment on the appropriateness of a linear trend.

[ 4 marks ]

(b) Calculate the centred four-quarter moving averages for this time series.

[ 4 marks ]

(c) Calculate the seasonal indices using an additive model.

[ 4 marks ]

Section B [15 marks]

7.

8.

The dates of birth in a large population are distributed throughout the year so that the probability of a
1
randomly chosen persons date of birth being in any particular month may be taken as 12 .
(i)

Find the probability that, of 6 people chosen at random, exactly two will have birthdays in
January.
[3 marks]

(ii)

Find the probability that, of 8 people chosen at random, at least one will have a birthday in
January.
[3 marks]

(iii)

N people are chosen at random. Find the least value of N so that the probability that at least one
will have a birthday in January exceeds 0.9.
[4 marks]

(iv)

Find the probability that, of 100 people chosen at random, at least 40 will have birthday in May,
June July or August.
[5 marks]
The masses and height of eight students from U6A4 are shown in the following table,
Student
Mass ( x kg)
Height ( y cm )

A
52
165

B
55
173

C
51
169

D
58
175

E
58
176

F
54
169

G
49
167

H
48
159

(a) Plot a scatter diagram for the above data.

[ 2 marks ]

(b) Calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient r between x and y.

[ 3 marks ]

(c) Comment on the value of r with respect to the scatter diagram in (a).

[ 1 mark ]

(d) Find the equation of the least squares regression line in the form y = a + bx , where a and b
are constants.
[ 4 marks ]
(e) Estimate the height of a student whose mass is 45 kg. Comment on your estimation.
[ 2 marks ]
(f) Calculate the Spearman rank correlation coefficient rs between x and y .

[ 3 marks ]

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge , but fools despise wisdom and discipline .
Proverbs 1 : 7 ]
[
TEH 2015 STPM 950/2 Mathematics M 1st Trial Exam.

Marking scheme ( 2015 1st Trial Examination 950/2 Mathematics M Paper 2 )

SMK Sacred Heart, Sibu .
Q1 (a) Median class is 79.5 89.5
1
( 32 )10
2
median = 79.5+
( 89.579.5 )=88.07
7

[ M1A1 ]

First quartile class is 69.5-79.5

1
( 32 )2
4
fIrst quartile , Q1 = 69.5 + (
( 79.569.5 ) =77
8

[ M1 ]

Third quartile class : 89.5-99.5

3
( 32 )17
4
third quartile, Q3 =
89.5+
( 99.589.5 )=94.17
15

[ M1 ]

Box plot :

[ Scale 1, D2 ]

Q1(b) Top five percent 95 percentile =

Q 2 .(i)

95
( 32 )17
100
89.5+
( 99.589.5 )=98.43
15

Probability that the player wins is

(ii)

4 1 4 4
+
=
10 10 9 9

()

[M1A1]

P ( only one card is taken / the player loses )

P(only one card istakenthe player loses)
P (the player loses )

[ M1A1]

5
10
9
=
4 10
1
9

[ M2A1]
Q3

(a)

Given that X~N(,2 )

P(X<30) = 0.14 P Z<

From table,

30
=1.08 -------(1)

P(X<60)=0.79
From table,

30
30
30
=0.14 1P Z <
=0.14 P Z<
=0.86

P Z<

60
=0.79

60
=0.806

Solving (1) and (2),

---------(2)

30
=1.886 =15.9

= 30 + 1.08 = 47.2
(b)

P(

[ M3A2]

Given Y ~ N( 10,22 )
P (10a<Y < 10+a )=0.95 .
10a10
10+a10
a
a
a
<Z <
)=0.95 . P
< Z < =0.95 P |Z|< =0.95
2
2
2
2
2

a
2 =1.96 a = 3.92
Q4

[M2A1]

x=1680, x 2=282 280, y =1620, y 2 =262 450, xy =272179.

The coefficient of Correlation between x and y is
10 ( 272179 ) (1680)(1620)
r=
=0.95
[ 10 ( 282280 )( 1680 )2 ] [ 10 ( 262450 )( 1620 )2 ]

[ M1A1]

There is a strong positive linear correlation between x ( Height of the husband ) and y
( height of the wife )
[ B1 ]
Q5.

(a) Laspeyres quantity index,

q14 p13 100 (6)(4) (2)(8) (1)(10) (2)(12) (1)(11) 100
(5)(4) (3)(8) (2)(10) (2)(12) (2)(11)
q13 p13
Lq =
85
850
100
77.27
110
11

=
[ M1A1 ]
The quantity of the fish spent by the housewife in expenditure in 2015 is decreased by
22.73 % compare to the year of 2013.
[ B1 ]

p
p

14 14

(b) Passche price index, Pp =

13 14

100

5(6) 10(2) 14(1) 13(2) 12(1)

100
4(6) 8(2) 10(1) 12(2) 11(1)

102
100 120
85

=
[ M1A1 ]
The expenditure of the housewife in fish is increased by 20 % in 2015 compare to 2013.
[ B1 ]

Q6

Axis :

[ M1 ]

(a) points & Graph: [ D1D1 ]

The data is increasing linearly

showing an upward trend and
seasoanally variation has
maximum value at third quarter and
minimum value at first quarter.
Its an additive model.
[ B1 ]

Q6 (b)
Year
2010

2011

2012

Quarte
r
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Sales,
y
23
32
68
33
27
40
73
37
30
43
77
43

4 points mov.
Ave.
39
40
42
43.25
44.25
45
45.75
46.75
48.25
-

Centred 4 points m.a. Y

Deviation, y -Y

39.50
41.00
42.625
43.75
44.625
45.375
46.25
47.50
-

28.5
-8
-15.625
- 3.75
28.375
-8.375
-16.25
-4.5
-

[ M3 A1]
Q6 (c)
Year / Quarter
2010
2011
2012
Average seaonal
variation
Adjusting factor
Seasonal variation

1st
-15.625
-16.25
-15.9375

2nd
-3.75
-4.5
-4.125

3rd
28.5
28.375
28.4375

4th
-8
-8.375
-8.1875

0.046875
-15.984375

0.046875
-4.171875

0.046875
28.390625

0.046875
-8.234375

28.39

-8.234

The seasonal variation index is as follow ( 4 s.f. )

Seasonal variation
-15.98
-4.172
Index

[ M3 A1 ]
Q7

(i)

Let X be the number having birthday in January in a sample of size 6. X ~ B ( 6,

1
12

)
P(X=2) =
(ii)

2
4
6 ( 1 ) ( 11 ) =0.07355(0.0736)
2 12 12

()

[M2A1]

Let Y be the number of people having birthday in January in sample size 8. Y~B(8,
1

12
11
12

P (Y 1 )=1P ( Y =0 )=1

(iii)

[M2A1]

Let w be the number of people having birthday in January in a sample of size N.

1
W ~ B ( N, 12 ) ,
11 N
11 N
(
)
(
)
P W 1 >0.9 1P W =0 > 0.9 1
> 0.9
<0.1 N >26.46
12
12

( )

(iv)

( )

Therefore, the minimum N 1s 27.

[M3A1]
Let T be the number of people having birthday in May, June, July and August in a
4
sample size 100. T ~ B( 100, 12 )

[B1]
1
100
np = 100( 3 = 3 >5
T~N(

, nq = 100

( 23 )= 2003 >5

Using Normal Approximation,

100 200
,

3
9

[B1]

P (T 40 ) P ( T >39.5 ) =P Z>

100
3
=P ( Z>1.308 )=0.0955
200
9

39.5

[M2A1]

8 (a)
[ D1D1]

8 (b)

n 8, x 425, x 2 22679, y 1353, y 2 229047, xy 72013

[ B1]

8 72013 425 1353

8 22679 425 2

0.9036

8 229047 1353

[ M1A1]

8 (c) r = 0.9036, it shows there is a strong positive linear correlation between the mass (x) and the
height (y) of students.
[ B1 ]
8(d)

y=a+bx

8(e)

8 72013 425 1353

8 22679 425

1.337

1353
425
1.337
98.10
8
8

[ M2A1]

: . The equation of least square regression line is y = 98.10 + 1.337 x

[ B1]

When x = 45, y = 98.10 + 1.337 ( 45 ) = 158.27 cm ( 2d.p. )

[ M1]

: . The estimate height of the a student when the mass is 45 kg is 158.27 cm. This
estimation is not valid as the mass, 45 kg is not in the range of data collected.
[ B1 ]
8(f)
Student
s
x
y
d2

4
2
4

6
6
0

3
4.5
2.25

7.5
7
0.25

7.5
8
0.25

5
4.5
0.25

2
3
1

1
1
0

8
[ M1 ]

rs 1
Spearman rank correlation coefficient,

6 8

8 82 1

0.9048
[ M1A1 ]