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INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

Participating Companies
Aarti Industries
Aksharchem (India)

HDFC sec Investor Forum


The Chemical Age Key takeaways

Apcotex Industries
Bodal Chemicals
IG Petrochemicals
Omkar Speciality Chemicals
Tata Chemicals

18 SEP 2014

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334

Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

18 SEP 2014

Aarti Industries
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 290

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
ARTO IN
No. of Shares (mn)
89
26/421
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
33
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 308/66
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
52.5 133.8
316.5
Relative (%)
48.2 111.7
282.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
60.87
FIs & Local MFs
8.78
FIIs
0.18
Public & Others
30.17
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Ramp-up to continue
Aarti Industries (AI) is engaged in the
manufacture
of
dyes,
pigments,
pharmaceuticals,
agrochemicals,
rubber
chemicals and their intermediates. AI
specialises in benzene chemistry and is
perceived as a quality and cost-efficient
manufacturer. Its customer list includes global
giants such as BASF, Huntsman, Clariant and
Dow Chemicals.

Full benefits of capex still to accrue : Capex of


~Rs 7bn (on Gross block of Rs 7.38bn in FY11) in
the previous 3 years will help reap benefits in the
foreseeable future. Additional capex of Rs 3bn in
the next 2 years, with a guidance of 3-4x asset
turns, will lead to healthy Revenue/PAT growth.

Steady & profitable growth : A diversified


product portfolio supported by backward and

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)

FY10
13,012
2,058
15.82%
685
7.7
37.3
14.5
16.5
0.92

forward integration has translated into stable


EBITDA margins 14-17% over FY11-14.
Improvement in EBIT margins by 700bps to 12%
bodes well for the pharma division. Benzene
prices have moved up by 60% over last 2 years to
Rs 84/kg in FY14, but price pass throughs have
protected margins. This tells us that most
product segments (that Aarti is present in) offer
robust pricing power.

FY11
14,530
2,021
13.91%
815
9.2
31.3
15.0
16.9
0.93

Outlook and view : Management has guided for


15-18% revenue CAGR for speciality chemicals
and 18-20% for the pharma segment over FY1517E. D/E as at FY14 is 1.1x and this will peak out
by FY15. Foray into ethylene chemistry post
FY17 can be a key trigger. With steady cash flow,
ROEs of ~20%, operating leverage from newer
capacity, de-leveraging post FY16, we feel AI can
replicate its steady growth rate over FY15-17E.
FY12
16,733
2,529
15.11%
1,033
11.7
24.7
12.3
18.7
0.97

FY13
20,962
3,650
17.41%
1,344
15.2
19.0
9.1
19.9
1.04

FY14
26,325
4,125
15.67%
1,624
18.3
15.7
8.4
19.9
1.06

1QFY15
7,250
1,131
15.60%
414
4.7

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

18 SEP 2014

Aksharchem (India)
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 250

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
ADCH IN
No. of Shares (mn)
5
1.2/20.3
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
1
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 303/42
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
80.8 101.0
425.6
Relative (%)
76.4 78.9
391.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
73.68
FIs & Local MFs
0.09
FIIs
Public & Others
26.23
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Well placed to ride a recovery


AksharChem (ACI) is engaged in the production
of dyes and intermediates. ACI excels as one of
the leading manufacturers and exporters
of Vinyl Sulphone (VS). VS is used as raw
material for reactive dyes, which are used in
making colour pigments, paints, rubber, textiles
and plastics.

Market leader in VS : The current VS capacity is


7,800 TPA with utilisation at 75%. About 85% of
VS produced by ACI is exported and it has a 50%
market share in Indias exports. VS business is
very volatile with EBITDA margins varying from
10% to 25%. VS is used to make reactive dyes
which are largely linked to textiles. ACIs
management feels that EBITDA margins of 23%+
is sustainable going ahead.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)

FY10
816
44
5.40%
15
3.1
81.3
31.4
18.7
1.83

FY11
846
86
10.20%
64
12.9
19.4
15.2
56.4
0.54

Green biz to moderate volatility : Pigment green


(PG) biz of Asahi Songwon Colors (a related co)
will be demerged and transferred to ACI. Five
shares of ACI will be issued to Asahis
shareholders for every 26 shares they hold in
Asahi. Yearly revenue from green pigment biz is
Rs 800mn. Current capacity of pigment green is
1,440 TPA . Plans to double capacity in PG biz is
in the offing by 4QFY15. Current EBITDA margins
for PG are at 22%. Management is guiding for a
slight improvement hereon. Pigment green biz
has stable margins and does not face any threat
from Chinese manufacturers.
Well placed to ride recovery across sectors :
Market leadership in VS, transfer of pigment
green biz (stable margin biz) and investments in
ETP gives us confidence about the sustainability
of the biz.
FY12
519
(17)
-3.34%
(39)
-7.9
-78.9
-27.8
0.97

FY13
958
62
6.43%
38
7.7
32.6
22.2
24.9
0.79

FY14
1,449
328
22.67%
200
40.5
6.2
4.0
78.5
0.25

1QFY15
386
69
17.77%
41
8.3

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

18 SEP 2014

Apcotex Industries
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 332

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
APCO IN
No. of Shares (mn)
10
3.4/56.6
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
10
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 395/103
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
91.0 201.1
204.1
Relative (%)
86.7 179.0
169.6
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
57.60
FIs & Local MFs
0.02
FIIs
Public & Others
42.38
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Urban growth play


Apcotex Industries (API) is one of the leading
producers of Performance Emulsion Polymers in
India. API produces two main products :
Synthetic Latex and Synthetic rubber. Synthetic
latex is used in paper, carpet, construction,
tyre, paint and textiles. Synthetic rubber is
primarily used in footwear. Apcotex was
established in the year 1980 as a division of
Asian Paints (India) Ltd., the largest paint
manufacturer in India. Apcotex was spun-off as
a separate company in 1991.

Jump in utilisations : Tough economic


environment led to sub-par capacity utilisation in
FY14 (latex ~60% and rubber ~50%). But post
1QFY15, utilisation of ~80% on account of
improving demand is sustainable according to
management.

Outlook : API clocked a double digit EBITDA


margin in 1QFY15 and the focus is now on
sustaining these levels. Current capacity for
synthetic latex is 55,000 TPA which will be scaled
to 65,000 TPA by FY16 with a capex of ~Rs 60mn.
API will be repaying ~Rs 50mn/yr over the next
couple of years to pare down long term debt.
Although Rubber division has shown some
recovery, API will not invest for expanding
rubber capacity. API feels it can achieve a
revenue CAGR of 40% over FY14-16.

Steady growth : API has delivered a strong CAGR


21/16% Revenue/EBITDA over FY10-14 with
margins at ~8.5-9.5%. RM risks are present due
to dependence on styrene (100% imported) and
butadiene (only two manufacturers in India) but
volatility has decreased recently.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)

FY10
1,431
141
9.82%
83
8.0
41.2
25.3
14.7
0.23

FY11
2,031
203
9.98%
107
10.3
31.9
17.6
18.0
0.29

FY12
2,550
228
8.92%
115
11.1
29.9
16.1
17.1
0.34

FY13
2,734
235
8.60%
128
12.3
26.8
15.7
17.1
0.35

FY14
2,978
276
9.26%
131
12.7
26.1
13.7
16.1
0.39

1QFY15
1,030
114
11.12%
58
5.6

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

18 SEP 2014

Bodal Chemicals
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 53

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
BODL IN
No. of Shares (mn)
109
6/95
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
18
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 76/8
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
37.8 259.3
382.3
Relative (%)
33.5 237.2
347.8
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
72.32
FIs & Local MFs
0.04
FIIs
0.13
Public & Others
27.51
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Turnaround turk
Bodal Chemicals (BCL) is a leading
manufacturer of dyes, dye intermediates and
basic chemicals, including H-acid. BCL produces
three major types of dyes: direct, acid and
reactive dyes (more than 175 products) having
applications in the textile, leather and paper
industries.

Painful past, miraculous recovery : BCL


undertook a major debt funded (Rs 2.5bn)
expansion in FY07 to forward and backward
integrate its dye intermediate business. Dumping
by China during this period led to squeeze in
margins and high interest led to losses. In FY14,
margins shot up to 20% on the back of strong Hacid prices as Chinese plants shut down.

Integrated model: Current capacity for Basic


Chemicals/Intermediates/Dyestuff
is
at
190/30/17 kTPA with utilisations at 90/70/65%

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY10
4,675
527
11.28%
135
1.2
42.9
15.9
23.4
4.51

FY11
5,727
617
10.78%
166
1.5
34.8
13.5
24.4
3.23

respectively. With commissioning of ETP (capex


of Rs 300mn) the utilisation levels can increase to
90% for both intermediates and dyestuffs from
the second half of FY15.
Outlook : BCL has no plans to expand capacity as
of now, with its primary target being debt
reduction. As at Mar-14, net D/E is 3.8x. BCL has
a debt repayment obligation of ~Rs 150mn every
2 years. But with strong internal cash generation
(OCF of Rs 522mn in FY14 vs Rs 142mn in FY13),
BCL will probably run ahead of schedule in
repaying debt.
Co has guided for 10-15% revenue growth over
FY15-17E with EBITDA margins ranging between
16-18%. PAT (adj for one time depreciation) for
FY14 was Rs 778mn, with a guidance of Rs
1.15bn in FY15E. BCL has no plans to dilute
equity to reduce D/E but will rely on strong
internal generation.
FY12
6,137
49
0.80%
(298)
-2.7
185.2
-43.6
5.63

FY13
5,275
237
4.49%
(232)
-2.1
38.7
-42.8
6.72

FY14
9,595
1,925
20.06%
302
2.8
19.2
4.7
43.1
3.78

1QFY15
3,853
939
24.37%
520
4.8

18 SEP 2014

IG Petrochemicals
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 70

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
IGPL IN
No. of Shares (mn)
31
2.2/35.4
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
2
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 81/16
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
51.2 244.8
310.6
Relative (%)
46.8 222.7
276.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
72.10
FIs & Local MFs
0.05
FIIs
0.01
Public & Others
27.84
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Transition
IGP is one of the largest and lowest cost
producers of Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) in the
world. PAN is an industrial chemical and has
wide usage across cables, pipes, packaging,
plasticisers, paints, building materials etc.
Cost savings on synergies : IGP added 50,000 TPA
capacity of PAN in FY14 to take the overall
capacity to 166,000 TPA. Addition of the third
plant led to cost savings for IGP. Steam generated
from PA-3 has led to decrease in furnace oil
consumption. This initiative will lead to Rs 8090mn/yr of cost saving. Benzoic acid produced
from waste water can generate additional
income. IGP can produce 1,200 TPA of benzoic
acid which will boost topline by Rs 120-130mn/yr
as per the management.
Raw Material scenario : Orthoxylene (OX) is the
key RM required for manufacturing PAN. IGP
currently sources 70% of its RM requirements
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)
Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY10
5,419
611
11.27%
273
8.8
7.9
4.3
7.7
0.20

from Reliance Industries and the balance is


imported. With setting up of a new OX
manufacturing facility of 2 lac TPA in Singapore,
prices of OX should stabilize/correct as per the
management. Also reduction in import duty from
5% to 2.5% augurs well for the company.
Outlook : EBITDA/kg for IGP had corrected from
Rs 5.4 in FY10 to Rs 3.6 in FY12 due to higher
manufacturing (plant level) costs. Operational
efficiency on commissioning of PA-3 has led to an
improvement in this metric to Rs 6.1/kg in 1QFY14
which is sustainable according to the
management. With gross margins hovering in the
Rs 10-12/kg range and OX prices remaining soft,
we believe IG could be headed for EBITDA in the
Rs 900-1000mn per annum. With healthy cash
accretion, we think the co is well placed to set in
motion the next phase of growth : a downstream
foray into plasticisers and perhaps one more
brownfield PA expansion.

FY11
6,313
449
7.11%
132
4.3
16.3
5.5
13.1
0.12

FY12
8,861
461
5.21%
133
4.3
16.2
5.1
13.0
0.08

FY13
9,703
620
6.39%
31
1.0
69.9
5.5
11.5
0.48

FY14
12,043
702
5.83%
31
1.0
68.7
5.3
12.5
0.61

1QFY15
3,434
278
8.09%
108
3.5

18 SEP 2014

Omkar Speciality Chemicals


INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 146

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
OSCL IN
No. of Shares (mn)
20
3/47
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
36
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 170/69
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
18.4
7.4
98.7
Relative (%)
14.1 (14.7)
64.2
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
66.08
FIs & Local MFs
13.16
FIIs
3.70
Public & Others
17.06
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Well Placed
Omkar Speciality Chemicals (OSC) produces
Speciality
Chemicals
and
Pharma
Intermediates. OSCs products are used in
Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals, Glass, Cosmetics,
Ceramic Pigments and Cattle & Poultry Feeds.

Iodine derivative biz : Management guided that


iodine derivatives (50% of revenues) will grow at
25% CAGR over FY15-17E. EBITDA margin of 12%
in iodine biz seems sustainable. Resumption of
crude iodine supplies from Japan (post
earthquake) has led to price retracement to
$35/kg currently (had risen from $35/kg in FY09
to $70/kg in FY11). Domestic receivables is an
issue for the iodine biz with debtor days of ~150
which has led to stretched working capital. OSC is

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)

FY11
1,068
220
20.59%
102
5.2
28.1
13.0
11.0
0.00

doubling the iodine + intermediate capacity to


9,000 TPA for Rs 600mn (debt + internal
accruals).
Veterinary API : OSC has increased its Veterinary
API facility from 100 TPA to 600 TPA with a capex
of Rs 200mn. OSC expects asset turns of 6x on
the expanded capacity. Veterinary API biz has an
EBITDA margin of 30% which is sustainable going
ahead and can grow at 30% CAGR over FY15-17E.
Outlook : OSC has planned for an equity dilution
to pare working capital debt. Due to high
volatility in INR/USD, the company has started
using INR loans instead of FCNR loans which has
resulted in doubling of interest cost. This was
the primary reason behind the fall in FY14
profits.

FY12
1,669
364
21.79%
160
8.2
17.9
9.6
16.2
0.59

FY13
2,117
442
20.89%
206
10.5
13.9
9.2
17.7
0.95

FY14
2,403
462
19.22%
136
6.9
21.1
9.9
10.3
1.26

1QFY15
364
53
14.69%
30
1.6

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

18 SEP 2014

Tata Chemicals
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 17 Sep 14)

Chemicals
Rs 393

Nifty
7,976
Sensex
26,631
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg
TTCH IN
No. of Shares (mn)
255
100/1,643
MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn)
6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
298
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
Rs 422/236
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
16.5 41.4
61.6
Relative (%)
12.1 19.3
27.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters
31.06
FIs & Local MFs
23.68
FIIs
21.93
Public & Others
23.33
Source : BSE

Satish Mishra
satish.mishra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7334
Shrenik Mehta
shrenik.mehta@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336

Focus on de-leveraging
Tata Chemicals Ltd (TCL) is a key player in
fertilisers (both urea and complex), iodised salt
and soda ash (worlds 2nd largest producer
with manufacturing facilities in Asia, Africa, EU
& USA).

US operations : US soda ash remains a high profit


business and TCL plans to expand capacity from
2.5 mtpa to 2.75mtpa.
UK, Kenya operations : With a view to ensure
long term viability of the business, the company
had restructured its UK operations in the early
part of FY14. Management has guided for a
sustainable EBITDA of $15m from the Kenyan
operations and 25m from the UK operations
once a steam turbine is installed to begin sale of
surplus power. Installation of the turbine is

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (Rs mn)


Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
ND/ E (x)

FY10
95,436
18,101
18.97%
6,059
23.8
16.4
7.6
12.8
0.76

FY11
110,606
19,597
17.72%
6,535
25.7
15.2
7.0
12.9
0.64

expected in 3QFY15. The Kenyan operations will


retrench ~200 people as a part of restructuring.
Growth Drivers : TCL plans to focus on consumer
products and wellness nutrition business like
ready to cook/eat food, spices, pulses. 5 yr target
from this segment is to increase revenues from
Rs 10bn to Rs 35bn (includes Rs 18bn from salts)
according to the management. With the
restructuring efforts coming to an end, the
management is now focused on repayment of
debt. The management has guided for a gradual
debt repayment schedule over the next 5 years
across all its operations. Stemming of losses in
the UK and Africa businesses accompanied by a
gradual reduction in interest expense are to drive
earnings growth in the years to come.

FY12
138,150
24,715
17.89%
8,376
32.9
11.9
5.8
14.2
0.63

FY13
147,110
25,807
17.54%
4,004
15.7
24.8
5.8
6.3
0.74

FY14
158,954
19,519
12.28%
(10,320)
-40.5

1QFY15
38,466
5,307
13.80%
1,755
6.9

8.5
(17.2)
1.06

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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