BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINATION -PART A (CLOSED BOOK)

Date: 03 MAY 2013

Day: FRIDAY

Max. Marks: 30
Time: 9.00 A.M. to 10.00 A.M.

2 0 1 2

P S

ID NO NAME:

:
NOTE: There are 10 questions in this paper. Each question below has four possible choices. Pick the choice
that is the most appropriate one and put in the box as A, B etc. Each correct choice fetches you 3 marks
and a wrong choice 1 mark. Any alteration/overwriting will be considered as wrong and awarded
-1 mark. Lower case answers will also be considered as wrong answers.
z 0.1=1.28, z 0.05 =1.645, z 0.025=1.96,

Q1. If the chances of

times out of 5,

z 0.01=2.33

hitting a target is 3 times out of 4

and that of C

and that of B

hitting is 5 times out of 6,

hitting is

and if

A , B ,C

fire at the target alternatively only once, then the probability that the target will be hit exactly
twice will be (assume independence)
19
24

(A)

Q2. Let

47
120

(B)

(C)

23
30

(D)

15
22

1
F ( x )=0 if x <0,= x 2 if 0 x<1,= ( 2 x1 ) if 1 x <2,
4

x2 5
if 2 x <3,=1 if x 3.
6 6

The values of ,

that make

F ( x ) a cdf of a continuous random variable are

(A)

==

1
4

(B)

==

Q3 If the MGF of a random variable

then

P( X 3)

(A)

1
3

(B)

3
2

(C)

is

1
3
= , =
4
2

(D)

1 e t e 2 t e3 t e 4 t
M X (t)= + + + +
6 4 3 6 12 ,

is
1
4

3
1
= , =
2
4

(C)

2
3

(D) cannot be found

Q4 Let

be a random variable having Poisson distribution with parameter =3. Then

largest when

23

(A)

P[ X=x ] is

is

(B) 34

(C)

(D) For no

Q5. The annual rainfall in a city is normally distributed with mean 30 inches and s.d. 2 inches.

inches of rain is exceeded (annually) 95 percent of the time, then c

33.29

(A)
Q6 If

X ,Y

(B)

33.92

(C)

(D)

26.18

are independent random variables each having exponential distribution with

parameters ,

respectively, then the random variable

(A) Gamma with parameters ,

K=min { X ,Y } will be

(B) Exponential with parameter +

,}
(C) Exponential with parameter
min
Q7 If

26.71

is

If

(D) Exponential with parameter

E [ X ] =2, Var X=5, E [ Y ] =1, Var Y =3 and Cov ( X , Y )=2,

then

Var ( 2 X 3 Y +4 )

(A) 1

(B) 5

is
23

(C) 63 (D)

Q8 John and Simon have agreed to meet for lunch between 0.00 P.M.(i.e. 12.00 noon) and

1.00
P.M. The arrival times of both are independent random variables having uniform
distribution over
(0, 1). Then the expected amount of time (in hours) that the one who
arrives first must wait for
the other person is
1
3

(A)

(B)

1
4

3
4

(C)

(D)

1
6

Q9. The burning time of a rocket (measured in seconds) can be thought of as a random variable

uniform distribution on the interval (0, b).

times:
(A)

Q10. A regression line

(B)

y=b 0+ b1 x

(C)

24

having

10 rockets yielded the following burning

8, 7,10, 9,7, 12, 11, 7,9, 10 . Then an unbiased estimate of b will be

12

(D)

18

was fitted (by the method of least squares) to the

n data points ( x 1 , y 1 ) , ( x2 , y 2 ) , , (xn , y n)

. If now each

xi

is increased by 2, then

(A) Both
(C)

b1

b0 ,b1

will change

remains the same but

(B) Both
b0

will change

(D)

b0 ,b1
b0

remain the same

remains the same but

b1

will change

***

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINATION -PART A(CLOSED BOOK)

Date: 03 MAY 2013

Day: FRIDAY

Max. Marks: 30
Time: 9.00 A.M. to 10.00 A.M.

2 0 1 2

P S

ID NO NAME:

:
NOTE: There are 10 questions in this paper. Each question below has four possible choices. Pick the choice
that is the most appropriate one and put in the box as A, B etc. Each correct choice fetches you 3 marks
and a wrong choice 1 mark. Any alteration/overwriting will be considered as wrong and awarded
-1 mark. Lower case answers will also be considered as wrong answers.
z 0.1=1.28, z 0.05 =1.645, z 0.025=1.96,

Q1. If the chances of

times out of 5,

z 0.01=2.33

hitting a target is 3 times out of 4

and that of C

and that of B

hitting is 5 times out of 6,

and if

hitting is
A , B ,C

fire at the target alternatively only once, then the probability that the target will be hit exactly
twice will be (assume independence)
47
120

(A)

19
24

(B)

(C)

23
30

15
22

(D)

1
2
F ( x )=0 if x <0,= x if 0 x<1,= ( 2 x1 ) if 1 x <2,
4

Q2. Let

x2 5
if 2 x <3,=1 if x 3.
6 6

The values of ,

that

F ( x ) a cdf of a continuous random variable are

make

3
1
= , =
2
4

(A)

(B)

Q3 If the MGF of a random variable

then

P( X 3)

(A)

1
3

Q4 Let

is

==

(C)

1
4

(D)

(B) 1

3
2

1 e t e 2 t e3 t e 4 t
M X (t)= + + + +
6 4 3 6 12 ,

(C)

1
4

(D) cannot be found

be a random variable having Poisson distribution with parameter =3. Then

largest when

==

is
2
3

(B)

1
3
= , =
4
2

P[ X=x ] is

is

(B) 23

(C)

34

(D) For no

Q5. The annual rainfall in a city is normally distributed with mean 30 inches and s.d. 2 inches.

c
(A)
Q6 If

inches of rain is exceeded (annually) 95 percent of the time, then c

33.29
X ,Y

(B) 33.92

(C)

26.18

(D)

is

If

26.71

are independent random variables each having exponential distribution with

parameters ,

respectively, then the random variable

(B) Gamma with parameters ,

(C) Exponential with parameter

K=min { X ,Y } will be

,}
(B) Exponential with parameter
min
(D) Exponential with parameter

Q7 If

E [ X ] =2, Var X=5, E [ Y ] =1, Var Y =3 and Cov ( X , Y )=2,

Var ( 2 X 3 Y +4 )

then
(A) 23

(B) 1

is

(C) 63 (D) 5

Q8 John and Simon have agreed to meet for lunch between 0.00 P.M.(i.e. 12.00 noon) and

1.00
P.M. The arrival times of both are independent random variables having uniform
distribution over
(0, 1). Then the expected amount of time (in hours) that the one who
arrives first must wait for
the other person is
1
6

(B)

(B)

1
3

3
4

(C)

(D)

1
4

Q9. The burning time of a rocket (measured in seconds) can be thought of as a random variable

uniform distribution on the interval (0, b).

(A)

(B)

12

Q10. A regression line

(C)

y=b 0+ b1 x

18

(D)

(A) Both
b0

b0 ,b1

remain the same

remains the same but

24

was fitted (by the method of least squares) to the

n data points ( x 1 , y 1 ) , ( x2 , y 2 ) , , (xn , y n)

(C)

10 rockets yielded the following burning

8, 7,10, 9,7, 12, 11, 7,9, 10 . Then an unbiased estimate of b will be

times:

having

b1

. If now each
(B) Both

will change

(D)

***

xi

b0 ,b1
b1

is increased by 2, then

will change

remains the same but

b0

will change

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
SECOND SEMESTER, 2012-2013
COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINATION
PART-B
AAOC C111/MATH F 113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
DATE: 03-05-2013(FRIDAY) Time: 120 Min.
Max. Marks: 50
Note : Z0.0179 =2.1, Z 0.025=1.96, Z 0.2389 =0.707, Z 0.0571 =1.581, 20.025=5.023, 20.050=3.841.
Write your probability values upto fourdecimal placessimplify .

1.a) For a certain binary channel, the probability that a transmitted 0 is correctly received as 0 is
0.94 and the probability that a transmitted 1 was received as 1 is 0.91. Further, the probability of
transmitting a 0 is 0.45. If a signal is sent, what is the probability of getting an error?
[4]
b) In a super market, a case contains 12 Coca-Cola bottles, in which 3 of them are having expired
date. A sample of 4 bottles is randomly selected from the case. Find the mean of X, the number of
bottles having the expiry date in the sample using the probability distribution of X, and also
calculate the theoretical mean.
[4]
2 a) An automobile production line turns out about 100 cars a day, but deviations occur due to many
causes. The production X in a day is more accurately described by the probability distribution given
below;
x

95

f(x) .03

96 97

98 99 100 101

.05 .07 .10 .15 .20

.15

102

103

104

105

.10

.07

.05

.03

Finished cars are transported across the bay, at the end of each day, by a ferry. If the ferry has space
for only 101 cars, what will be the average number of cars waiting to be shipped in the first week of
April (1st-7th) and what will be the average number of empty spaces on the ferry during that period.
Use the following random numbers {24, 76, 47, 98, 03, 67, 13} and the tabular headings for
simulation in the given order. [6]
Use the following headings: Day, Number of cars waiting for transportation, Random number,
Number of cars produced, Number of cars ferried ( including the previous day waiting cars),
Number of cars not ferried, Number of empty spaces on ferry. Assume initially there is no
production.
b) If X is a normal random variable with mean 7 and variance 4 then find the value of
P (15.364 < (X 7)2< 20.095)?

[3]

3. a) Two numbers are chosen independently and at random from the interval (0, 1). What is the
1

probability that the two numbers diers by more than 2 ?

[4]

2
b) Let (X, Y) be distributed uniformly on the circular disk centered at (0, 0) with radius . Find

the marginal density function of X?

[4]

4. To test the hypothesis that a coin is fair, the following decision rules are adopted. (i) Accept the
hypothesis if the number of heads in 100 tosses is between 40 and 60 both inclusive. (ii) reject the
hypothesis otherwise.
[4+3]
a) Find the probability of rejecting the hypothesis when it is actually correct.
b) What conclusions would you draw if the sample of 100 tosses yielded 53 heads? Could you be
wrong in your conclusion? If so, what type of error it could be?
5. A random sample of 50 mathematics grades out of a total of 1000 showed a mean of 75 and a
standard deviation of 10.
a. What are the 95% confidence limits for the mean of the 1000 grades?
[3]
b. With what degree of confidence could we say that the mean of all 1000 grades is
[3]

75 1

2
( x 2 y ), 0 x 1, 0 y 1
f XY ( x, y) 3
0
elsewhere

6. The joint density of the random variables X and Y is

Find for this distribution. Find also the curve of regression of Y on X.

[7]

7. A process for producing vinyl floor covering has been stable for a long period of time and the
surface hardness measurement of the flooring produced has a mean 5.4. A second shift has been
hired and trained and their production needs to be monitored. Consider testing the hypothesis H 0:
=5.4 against H1: 5.4. A random sample of hardness measurements is made of n=40 specimens
produced by the second shift. If the mean of the sample is 5.1 and standard deviation is 1.2, what
can be concluded at 0.05 level of significance? (Use P-Value test)
[5]

******

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINATION
PART-B-SOLUTIONS
1 a) Let A be the event of transmitting 0, P(A)=0.45, B be the event of receiving 0 ,
transmitting 1,

be the event of

be the event of receiving 1,

Given that P (A) =0.45, P (B/A) = 0.94, P ( B / A ) =0.91.

A
P (error) = P (A B + P B) = P (A) P ( B / A + P ( A P (B / A) =0.45*0.06+0.55*0.09=0.0765
(2M+2M)
b) Given that N=12, r=3, n=4,
Distribution

Mean = E(X)=

x
P(x)

P ( x )=

0
0.2545

xp ( x )=0.9995

r C x N r Cn x
N Cn

1
0.5090

2
0.2181

(1M)
3
0.0181

, theoretical mean = =

function (2M):

nr
=1
(1M)
N

2a) Simulation scheme= F(x)), 1 to 7 refers to the tabular headings given the question and days (2M+2M)
0F(x)<0.03
0.03F(x)<0.0
8
0.08F(x)<0.1
5
0.15F(x)<0.2
5
0.25F(x)<0.4
0
0.40F(x)<0.6
0
0.60F(x)<0.7
5
0.75F(x)<0.8
5
0.85F(x)<0.9
2
0.92F(x)<0.9
7
0.97F(x)<1

1 2 3
X=95
X=96 1 0 2
4
X=97
2 0 7
6
X=98

98

98

10
2

10
1

3 1 4
7

10
0

10
1

X=1004 0 9
8
X=101
5 4 0
3
X=102

10
5

10
1

96

10
0

6 0 6
X=103
7

10
1

10
1

X=1047 0 1
3
X=105

97

97

X=99

Average number of cars waiting: 5/7 (1M)

Average number of empty spaces: 8/7(1M)

2b
P [ 15.364 < ( X7 ) 2< 20.095 ] =P

15.364 X7 2 20.095
<
<
=P [ 3.841< 12<5.02375 ]=0.9750.950=0.025
4
4
4

11/2(1, 1)

(2M+1M)
1/21

1
2

==1/ 4
f xy (x , y ) dxdy= f x ( x ) f y ( y ) dxdy = 21
8

3a)

x+

1
2

P |X Y |>

Or

P |X Y |>

b) Given that

x+

1
2

1
2

1
=2Area of the shaded region=
2
0

1
21
=2Area of triangle=
=1/4
(Sketch-1M, limits 2M+1M)
2
8

1
1

Area of the =
=
4 4

1
f xy ( x , y ) =
y=

Marginal density = f x ( x )=

4
2
x

y=

(1M)

f xy ( x , y ) dy =

4 2
x

1 4
x2
2

(Limits & sketch 2M+1M)

P[40 X 60] P[39.5 X 60.5]

4. The probability of accepting the hypothesis is

60.5 50
39.5 50
P
Z
5
5

=
(Since =np=50 and 2=np(1-p)=25) [2M]
=F[2.1]-F[-2.1] =0.9642
(a) =P[Reject the hypothesis even though it is true]
=P[Reject the hypothesis when p=0.5]
=1-0.9642
=0.0358.
[2M]
(b) If X= 53, then accept the hypothesis. Yes, Type II error.
[3M]
X 75, s 10, n 50
5. (a) Given

X Z 0.025
95% confidence limits for are
X Z / 2

s
n
=

75 2.7718

=(77.228,77.7718)
[3M]

s
75 1
n

(b)Given
Z / 2 0.707 0.4778
Hence
and the confidence level is 0.5222
[3M]
2
( x 2 y ), 0 x 1, 0 y 1
f XY ( x, y ) 3
0elsewhere
6. Given
, hence
1 1
1 1
2

E[ X ] x x 2 y dxdy 5 / 9 E[Y ] y x 2 y dxdy 11/18

3

0 0
0 0
(a)
,
1 1
1 1

2
2 2
E[ X ] x x 2 y dxdy 7 /18 E[ XY ] xy x 2 y dxdy 1/ 3
3

0 0
0 0
,
13
23
X
, Y
162
324
Thus
, Cov(X,Y)= -0.00617
[3M]
0.0818
And
[1M]
1
2
f
x 2y
f X f XY dy x 1 fY / X XY
3
fX
x 1
0
(b)
,
[2M]
1
x 2 y
3x 4
3x 4
Y / X y
dy
y

x 1
0
6x 6
6x 6
Thus
=
, hence the curve of regression is
[1M]
H 0 : 5.4
X
Z
1.581
H1 : 5.4
X 5.1, s 1.2, n 40
s/ n
7.
=0.05,
,
[2M]
P=P[Z>1.581]=0.0571 >/2, hence, the data is in sufficient to reject H0. [3M]

BITS- PILANI HYDERABAD CAMPUS

SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
TEST 2 (OPEN BOOK)
Date : 30-03-2013
Max. Marks: 60
Day: SATURDAY
Time : 11.00 A.M. to 12.00 Noon
______________________________________________________________________________
Note: 1. Answer all the questions. Marks for each question are given at the end of the question.
2. Give all answers in the most simplified form and either in fractions or correct to 4 decimal places.
______________________________________________________________________________

1. Customers arrive at a bank in a Poisson fashion at an average rate of 10 per hour. Find the probability that
the bank staff have to wait for not more than 6 minutes (from the time of banks opening) for the first
customer to arrive?
[8]
2.

A random variable

=10, =2.

has a gamma distribution with parameters

P [ 8.26 X 31.4 ] .
3.

Let
Y=

4.

Let

[4]

be a continuous random variable with density

1
.
2
1+ X

f ( x )=e x , x> 0 (and 0 otherwise). Let

Obtain the density of the random variable Y .

be a continuous random variable with density

Find a value assumed by

Find

f ( x )=

[8]

{2xx 0 <1x<1x< 2

corresponding to the random number 743.

otherwise,

[10]

( X , Y ) has a uniform distribution over the square with vertices

5. The two-dimensional random variable

( 1, 0 ) , ( 0, 1 ) , (1, 0 ) and ( 0,1 ) .

and

Let U= X +Y ,V =Y X .

( U ,V ) .

the two-dimensional random variable

g(u , v ) of

Hence find the density of the random variable

U= X +Y .

[12]

6. A symmetric die is thrown 300 times. Let

theorem find a lower bound on the probability

7. CSK will play 44 matches next season,

Find the joint density

26

be the number of
P [ 40< X <60 ] .

4 s obtained. Using Chebyshevs

[10]

of these matches are against DD and 18 are against KKR.

Suppose CSK will win each match with a probability 0.6. Assume that the results of the games are
independent. Find the probability that CSK will win at least 30 matches using normal approximation to
binomial
distribution
and
applying
the
half-unit
correction
factor.
[8]

***

BITS- PILANI HYDERABAD CAMPUS SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013

AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TEST 2 (OPEN BOOK) (Solutions)

Max. Marks: 60
Time : 11.00 A.M. to 12.00 Noon

Date : 30-03-2013
Day: SATURDAY
1.

Customers arrive at a bank in a Poisson fashion at an average rate of 10 per hour. Find the probability
that the bank staff have to wait for not more than 6 minutes (from the time of banks opening) for the
first customer to arrive?
[8]
Solution: Unit of time: hour
Time T

until first arrival is exponential with parameter

1
10 .

1/ 10

1
1
P T<
= 1 0 e10 t dt=1 0.6321 .
10
e
0

2.

A random variable

=10, =2.

has a gamma distribution with parameters

P [ 8.26 X 31.4 ] .
X

Solution:

[4]

2
therefore has a distribution with 20 degrees of freedom.

P [ 8.26 X 31.4 ] =0.9500.010=0.940

From Table !V Page 696,

3.

Let
Y=

Solution:

Obtain the density of the random variable Y .

Y

is a decreasing function of

g ( y )=f ( x )

4.

Let

f ( x )=e x , x> 0 (and 0 otherwise). Let

be a continuous random variable with density

1
2
1+ X

Find

| |

dx
=ex
dy

X.

Hence the density of

1
=e
1
2 y2
1
y

1
1
y

1
2y

3/ 2

1 y

,0< y< 1

x 0 < x<1
( )
be a continuous random variable with density f x = 2x 1 x< 2

Find a value assumed by

Solution: The cdf of

X is:

1
F ( x )< if 0< x <1
2

corresponding to the random number 743.

F ( x )=

and

Hence we have to solve for

x2
, 0< x< 1
2

1
1 ( 2x )2 ,1 x <2
2

1
2

x:

if

is

1 x <2.

1
2
1 ( 2x ) =0.743
2

and 0 otherwise,

And we get

x=1.283

( X , Y ) has a uniform distribution over the square with vertices

5. The two-dimensional random variable

Let U= X +Y ,V =Y X .

( 1, 0 ) , ( 0, 1 ) , (1, 0 ) and ( 0,1 ) .

( U ,V ) .

the two-dimensional random variable

[12]

(1,1)

(0,1)

(1,0)

(1,0)

| ||

(1,1)

(1,1)

(0,1)
1
F XY ( x , y )=
2 over the square

x
u
The Jacobian J = y
u
Hence

g(u , v ) of

Hence find the density of the random variable

U= X +Y .

Solution:

Find the joint density

(1,1)

x
v = 1/2 1/2 =1/2
y 1/2 1/2
v

1
gUV ( u , v )= ,1< u<1,1< v<1
4

Hence the (marginal) density of U= X +Y

is:

1
gU (u )= ,1<u <1.
2

6. A symmetric die is thrown 300 times. Let

theorem find a lower bound on the probability

Solution:

E [ X ] ==50; Var [ X ] =

P [ 40< X <60 ] .

[10]

250
6

P [ 40< X <60 ] =P [| X|<10 ] 1

be the number of 4 s obtained. Using Chebyshevs

Var [ X ]
100

(By Chebyshevs Theorem)

250 350 7
=
=
600 600 12

7. CSK will play 44 matches next season, 26 of these matches are against DD and 18 are against KKR.
Suppose CSK will win each match with a probability 0.6. Assume that the results of the games are
independent. Find the probability that CSK will win at least 30 matches using normal approximation to
binomial distribution and applying the half-unit correction factor.
[8]
Solution: Let
Hence

X ,Y

p=0.6 .

be the number of wins against DD; let Y

bw the number of wins against KKR.

are independent rasndom variables both having binomial distribution with same

Hence their sum is also binomial with parameters n=44

and

p=0.6 .

E [ X +Y ] =44 0.6=26.4 ; Var [ X +Y ] =44 0.6 0.4=10.56

P [ X+ Y 30 ] =P [ X +Y 29.5 ] =P

X +Y 26.4 29.526.4

P [ Z 0.95 ] =0.1711 .
10.56
10.56

***

BITS- PILANI HYDERABAD CAMPUS

SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
TEST 2 MAKE-UP (OPEN BOOK)
Date : 18-04-2013
Max. Marks: 60
Day: THURSDAY
Time : 1 Hour
______________________________________________________________________________
Note: 1. Answer all the questions. Marks for each question are given at the end of the question.
2. Give all answers in the most simplified form and correct to 4 decimal places.
1. A computer center maintains a telephone consulting service to troubleshoot for its users. The service is
available from 9.00 A.M. to 5.00 P.M. each working day. Pat experience tells that calls are received in a

Poisson fashion at an average of 50 per day. For a given day, find the probability that at least two calls
will be received by 9.15 A.M.
[10]
2. From experience, Mr. Ram has found that the low bid on a construction job can be regarded as a random
X

variable

having uniform density

2 C
, < x<2 C
(
)
f x = 3C 2
, where
0 elsewhere

is his own estimate of

the cost of the job.

(a) If Ram bids

(1+ 100k )C ,

(b) Hence find k

3.

Find the probability that he will get the contract.

so that his expected profit is a maximum.

If a random variable

[12]

has standard normal distribution, find the density of

Z2 .

density ?

[8]

4. The joint density of

(i) Find c .

Identify this

and Y

is given by

(ii) Find the marginal density of

y
f ( x , y ) = c ( yx ) e , 0< y < , y < x< y
0 elsewhere

X.

(iii) Find

E [ X].

[12]

5. Let

and Y

[0, 1]. Let

be independent random variables each having Uniform distribution over the interval

U= X ,V =X +Y .

(i) Find the joint density f UV (u , v ) of U

and V

(ii) Find the marginal density f V (v ) of V . .

[8]
6. How many times do we have to flip a balanced coin to be able to assert with a probability at most 0.01
that the difference between the proportion of tails and 0.5 will be at least 0.04?
[10]

***

BITS- PILANI HYDERABAD CAMPUS

SECOND SEMESTER 2012-2013

AAOC C111/MATH F113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
TEST 2 MAKE-UP(OPEN BOOK) (Solutions & Marking Scheme)
Date : 18-04-2013
Max. Marks: 60
Day: THURSDAY
Time : 1 Hour
______________________________________________________________________________
Note: 1. Answer all the questions. Marks for each question are given at the end of the question.
2. Give all answers in the most simplified form and correct to 4 decimal places.
1. A computer center maintains a telephone consulting service to troubleshoot for its users. The service is
available from 9.00 A.M. to 5.00 P.M. each working day. Pat experience tells that calls are received in a
Poisson fashion at an average of 50 per day. For a given day, find the probability that at least two calls
will be received by 9.15 A.M.
[10]
Solution:

P at least 2 calls are received between 9.00 A.M, and 9.15 A.M.

(2)

1P at most 1 call is received between 9.00 A.M. and 9.15 A.M. (2)

1e

75
48

( 1+ 7548 )=0.4629

(3+3)

2. From experience, Mr. Ram has found that the low bid on a construction job can be regarded as a random

variable

having uniform density

2 C
, < x<2 C
f ( x )= 3 C 2
, where
0 elsewhere

is his own estimate of

the cost of the job.

(a) If Ram bids

(1+ 100k )C ,

(b) Hence find k

Solution: (a)

Find the probability that he will get the contract.

so that his expected profit is a maximum.

is the low bid by others

P Ram gets the contract =P

( (

[12]

P X > 1+

))

k
C=
100

Low bid by others > Rams bid

k
C
100
2
k
= (1
)
C
3
100
2C
2

2 c 1+

(2+2)

(2)

( 100k )C

(b) Hence Profit of Ram =

2
k
(1
)
if he gets the contract
3
100

with probability

(2)
2
k
(1
)
3
100

And 0 with probability 1 -

Q=

Hence his expected profit is

if he does not get the vontract

(1)

2 kC
k
(1
)
300
100 which is a maximum when

dQ
=0
dk

i.e. if k=50. (2+1)

3.

If a random variable

has standard normal distribution, find the density of

Z2 .

density ?

[8]

Density of Z

f ( z )=

is

1 z / 2
e
,< z< .
2

2
Hence Density of Y =Z is

g ( y )=

Hence Y

1
2 y

(1)

[ f ( y ) + f ( y)]
1

1
1
( )21 /2
2

y2

(2)

e2

, y> 0 (3)

is a random variable having chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom. (2)

4. The joint density of

(i) Find c .

Identify this

and Y

is given by

(ii) Find the marginal density of

y
f ( x , y ) = c ( yx ) e , 0< y < , y < x< y
0 elsewhere

X.

(iii) Find

E [ X].

[12]

5. Let

and Y

[0, 1]. Let

be independent random variables each having Uniform distribution over the interval

U= X ,V =X +Y .

(i) Find the joint density f UV (u , v ) of U

and V

(ii) Find the marginal density f V (v ) of V . .

[8]
6. How many times do we have to flip a balanced coin to be able to assert with a probability at most 0.01
that the difference between the proportion of tails and 0.5 will be at least 0.04?

[10]

***

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
SECOND SEMESTER, 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F 113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Test - 1 (Closed Book)
DATE: 25-02-2013(Monday)
Time: 60 Min.
Max Marks: 60
Note: There are six questions. Answer all questions with justification by clearly
defining event(s)/random variable(s). Marks for each question are given at the end of
the question.

1. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer or he

guesses. Let 0.6 be the probability that he knows the answer and 0.4 the probability that he guesses.
Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with 1/5, where 5 is the number of
multiple-choice alternatives. What is the probability that a student knew the answer to a question
given that he answered it correctly?
[8M]
2. Suppose that a cafeteria purchases 5 cartons of skim milk at the wholesale price of Rs 12.00 per
carton and retails the milk at Rs 14.00 per carton. After the expiration date, the unsold milk is
removed from the shelf and the cafeteria receives a credit from the distributor equal to three-fourths
x
f(x)

0
1
1/15 2/15

2
3
2/15 a/15

4
4/15

5
3/15

of the wholesale price. If the probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of
cartons that are sold from this lot is

Find the Expected Profit for the Cafeteria.

[7M]

3. A random variable X, which represents the weight (in ounces) of an article, has the Probability
density function is given by

( x8 ) , for 8 x< 9
f ( x )= ( 10x ) , for 9 x< 10
0; other wise

a. Find the cumulative distribution function X.

b. Find the moment generating function X.
c. Calculate the variance of the random variable X.

[15M]

4. On the average there are 1.8 breakdowns every five working days in major factory equipment at
the main plant of XYZ Fabricators, according to the plants maintenance department:
a. Find the probability that fewer than 4 breakdowns occur in 10 working days.
b. What are the chances that there will be one or more breakdowns on any working day?
c. What is the probability that there will be one or more breakdowns during the next three-workingday period?
[9M]
5. The local authorities in a certain city install 10,000 electric lamps in the street of the city. If these
lamps have an average life of 1000 burning hours with a standard deviation of 200 hours, assuming
normality, what number of lamps might be expected to fail (i) in the first 800 burning hours? (ii)
between 800 and 1200 burning hours? After what period of burning hours would you expect that
(iii) 10% of the lamps would fail? (iv) 10% of the lamps would be still burning?
[Use
the necessary table values:

Z 0.1

= 1.28;

Z 0.1587 =1

] [12M]

6. Suppose that during rainy season on a tropical island the length of the shower has an exponential
distribution, with parameter

=2, time being measured in minutes. What is the probability that a

shower will last more than three minutes? If a shower has already lasted for 2 minutes, what is the
probability that it will last for at least one more minute?
[9M]
********

BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

HYDERABAD CAMPUS
SECOND SEMESTER, 2012-2013
AAOC C111/MATH F 113: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
DATE: 18-04-2013
Test - 1 MAKE UP(Closed Book)
Time: 60
mins
DAY: THURSDAY
Max Marks: 60
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Note: There are six questions. Answer all questions with justification by clearly
defining event(s)/random variable(s). Marks for each question are given at the end of
the question.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
1. The sum of two non-negative quantities is equal to 2n. Find the probability that their product is not
less than times their greatest product.
[8M]
2. A consignment of 15 record players contains 4 defectives. The record players are selected at random
one by one,and examined. Those examined are not put back. What is the probability that the 9th one
examined is the last defective.
[8M]
3. A Piece of mechanism consists of 11 components, 5 type A, 3 or type B, 2 of type C and 1 of type D.
The probability that any particular component will function for a period of 24 hours from the

commencement of operations without breaking down is independent of whether or not any other
component breaks down during that period and can be obtained from the following table:
Component
A
B
C
D
Probability
0.60
0.70
0.30
0.2
(i) Calculate the probability that 2 components chosen at random from the 11 components will both
function for a period of 24 hours from the commencement of operations without breaking down.
(ii) If at the end of 24 hours of operations neither of the 2 components chosen in(i) has broken down,
what is the probability that they are both type C components.
[14M]
4. In a certain factory turning out optical lenses, there is a small chance

1
500

for any lens to be

defective. The lenses are supplied in a packet of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate the
approximate number of packets containing no defective, one defective and three defective lenses in a
consignment of 20,000 packets.
[10M]

5. In a normal distribution, 10.03% of the items are under 25 Kg weight and 89.97% of the
items are under 70 Kg weight. What are the mean and standard deviation of the distribution?
(Given:
[10M]

Z 0.1 =1.28

)
4

6. (i) If X is uniformly distributed with mean 1 and variance 3 , find P(X<0).

[5+5 =10M]

(ii) Suppose that the time between breakdowns for a machine is exponential with 6 hrs. If
the machine has worked without failure during the last 3 hours, what is the probability that it
will continue without failure during the next hour?