Professional Documents
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Buy
EUR
60.00
Price
EUR 34.82
Upside
72.3 %
EUR
Share data:
DCF:
FCF-Value Potential 17e:
60.00
33.00
Bloomberg:
Reuters:
ISIN:
Market Snapshot:
EUR m
Shareholders:
Market cap:
No. of shares (m):
EV:
Freefloat MC:
Trad. Vol. (30d):
4,238
122
3,930
3,942
58.42 m
Description:
WDI GR
WDIG
DE0007472060
Freefloat
MB Beteiligungs mbH
93.0 % Beta:
6.4 % Price / Book:
6.3 % Equity Ratio:
5.0 %
5.0 %
2015e
1.1
3.5 x
55 %
FY End: 31.12.
in EUR m
-19.2 %
1.3 %
Year to date:
-12.5 %
Trailing 12 months:
-12.6 %
Company events:
07.04.16
19.05.16
16.06.16
11.08.16
FY 2015
Q1
AGM
Q2
CAGR
(14-17e)
Sales
Change Sales yoy
Gross profit margin
EBITDA
Margin
EBIT
Margin
Net income
24.5 %
EPS
EPS adj.
DPS
Dividend Yield
FCFPS
FCF / Market cap
30.8 %
29.9 %
0.0 %
EV / Sales
EV / EBITDA
EV / EBIT
P/E
P / E adj.
FCF Yield Potential
ROE
ROCE (NOPAT)
0.7 %
28.6 %
31.5 %
31.0 %
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
325
19.6 %
44.1 %
85
26.0 %
76
23.4 %
61
394
21.3 %
44.3 %
109
27.8 %
93
23.6 %
73
482
22.3 %
44.5 %
126
26.1 %
99
20.5 %
83
601
24.8 %
47.5 %
173
28.8 %
133
22.1 %
108
749
24.6 %
49.4 %
230
30.7 %
186
24.8 %
150
968
29.2 %
48.8 %
296
30.5 %
239
24.7 %
190
1,159
19.8 %
48.5 %
368
31.8 %
303
26.1 %
243
0.60
0.60
0.10
0.8 %
0.76
3.0 %
0.65
0.72
0.10
0.6 %
0.89
4.0 %
0.74
0.83
0.12
0.5 %
0.94
3.4 %
0.89
0.99
0.13
0.4 %
1.22
2.3 %
1.23
1.43
0.13
0.4 %
1.68
3.7 %
1.56
1.82
0.13
0.4 %
2.20
5.2 %
1.99
2.17
0.13
0.4 %
2.78
6.4 %
3.3 x
12.8 x
14.3 x
19.8 x
19.8 x
5.8 %
4.0 x
14.3 x
16.9 x
24.3 x
21.9 x
4.9 %
5.0 x
19.0 x
24.3 x
30.6 x
27.3 x
3.1 %
5.6 x
19.3 x
25.1 x
34.7 x
31.2 x
3.4 %
5.2 x
16.9 x
20.8 x
28.3 x
24.3 x
3.8 %
4.1 x
13.3 x
16.4 x
22.3 x
19.1 x
5.1 %
3.2 x
10.1 x
12.2 x
17.5 x
16.0 x
7.1 %
19.5 %
23.1 %
16.5 %
20.0 %
14.4 %
17.5 %
12.8 %
17.4 %
13.2 %
19.6 %
14.7 %
20.7 %
16.2 %
23.4 %
Guidance
Analyst
J o che n Re ic hert
jreichert@warburg-research.com
+49 40 309537-130
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Sales development
EBIT development
in EUR m
in EUR m
in EUR m
Company Background
Wirecard is one of the leading independent suppliers of electronic payment and risk management solutions and card-based B2C
products. Furthermore, Wirecard is a provider of POS payment/transaction services and systems.
The company serves more than 20,000 commercial customers worldwide and generates a transaction volume of >EUR 30bn, which
corresponds to about >670m individual transactions. The key elements of the strategy are:
An IP-based platform which can be simply linked to dealers' websites. The platform integrates risk management systems, payment,
processing and transaction solutions, currencies and banking/credit card services.
Wirecard combines technology, risk management & banking and follows a so-called omni-channel strategy which provides payment
technologies for all kinds of payment channels at the POS or online
Business model is based on transaction value and percentage-based fees.
Competitive Quality
Structural growth underpins Wirecard's positioning: internet-based consumption and the number of electronic-based payments are
increasing worldwide. E-payment methods are gaining in popularity in emerging markets.
In South-East Asia and India, Wirecard is positoned as an enabler of electronic payment and transaction solutions at the POS.
Wirecard combines typical payment gateway services, with risk management tools and banking solutions (e.g. acquiring).
EBT development
in EUR m
in%
in EUR m
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Some of Zatarras allegations
Jochen Hochrein
4
Mr Burkhard Ley and the insolvency of the Kirch Group
4
Mr Schuett and rumours that he received his orders from Markus Braun 4
Trautmanns indicated potential connection to Mr Suter in Switzerland
5
Trautmanns indicated connection to some Irish companies
6
Bluetool, Wire Card, Krores, Oval 2123
6
Schuett and his potential connection to EZV which is a business partner
of Wirecard
9
Bluemay Enterprises
10
Conclusion
11
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Some of Zatarras allegations
Jochen Hochrein
In some parts of the report (e.g. page 1) it is written that Jochen Hochrein, a former
Wirecard board member, is involved in money laundering and is still connected to
Wirecard.
To put this into perspective: Jochen Hochrein was CEO of Infogenie AG until 2003.
Infogenie was used for a reverse IPO of Wirecards payment gateway assets and of the
payment business in 2003/2004.
Mr Hochrein left Infogenie in 2004. Infogenie had a different business (call centre
activities) compared to the Wirecard business model. Furthermore, Wirecard
restructured the call centre business, and Mr Hochrein presumably had a consultant
contract with Wirecard.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
information was published afterwards.
In an email statement, Wirecard wrote: With regards to the Schtt case, in 2010 the
online portal Goldman, Morgenstern & Partners (Gomopa) published a report falsely
claiming that Mr Michael Schtt, in his testimony to US authorities, named Wirecard as
an ally in his money laundering scheme for gambling companies. Several investigations
by journalists have entirely cleared both Wirecard and Mr Trautmann in relation to
Gomopas false claims. Gomopas claims were entirely fraudulent and made solely to
manipulatively drive down Wirecards stock price. For an example of this, please see the
Handelsblatt
article
available
via
the
link:
http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/boerseinside/marktgeruechtefinanzaufsic
ht-untersucht-kursachterbahn-beiwirecard/3406252.html. Gomopas reputation for
questionable business practices is well known.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
We spoke with Wirecard about the issue. If we understood Wirecard correctly, Wircard
would deal with its employees like that:
Wirecard ensures that employees use their work-time completely for Wirecard.
Wirecard assures that there are no conflicts of interests, mainly in two ways.
Employees are not allowed to invest in competitive businesses. Moreover, employees
should not invest or should not have business relations to existing and potential
customers.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Zatarras logic for the connection between Wirecard and Bluetool
Wirecard AG
Company
Secretary
corporate
shell
Bournewood
Bluetool ltd
Officer
Owner
Owner
Ruediger
Trautmann
Fermoya
B.M.E.I
Fermoya
Zatarra indicates (if we understood them correctly) from the connection between Wire
Card (the Wirecard shelf) and Bluetool (involved in money laundering in the Schuett case
via Fermoya and Bournewould) that Wirecard and the board of Wirecard were involved
in establishing a network of shadow and shelf companies to settle illegal transactions in
gambling, adult entertainment and pharmaceuticals.
Furthermore, searching for Bournewood in the Companies House data base results in
738 matches in which Bournewood is the company secretary and registrar. Not
surprisingly, when searching for Fermoya one finds many results in which Fermoya is
either an owner or a company secretary.
Zatarra questions: Shouldnt it dangerous and shouldnt it provide evidence that Wirecard
has used the same professional services as many (or hundreds) of other potentially
doubtful incorporated companies.
Wirecard said that Wire Card UK was incorporated on behalf of Wirecard for the purpose
of establishing a subsidiary for Wirecard in the UK, but other decisions were made. It
was a dormant company during its entire life and never was operational.
Should we really conclude from Bluetool and Wire Card having had the similar corporate
structure that Wirecard is involved in operating a network of shadow and shell
companies to process illegal transactions?
What we cannot really evaluate: Is it rather usual to take a nominee as an owner,
especially a firm which is registered on the British Virgin IslandsT
Tbecause if Bournewood and Fermoya are just used by professional service or
consultancy companies to provide company formation services, the indicated connection
between Wirecard-Bluetool and Wirecard-Bluemay could potentially easily be explained,
in our view.
Zatarra has listed other UK or Ireland-based companies in the report: Krores
UK/Fantazzle, Krores Ireland, Oval (2123).
Krores UK was founded in 2009 and dissolved in 2010. Again, Trautmann and Quinn
had been officers. It looks as if Krores was a shell, too. We point out that there are no
details about the potential connections between Wirecard, Trautmann and Krores
Limited UK.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
There is something, however, which could potentially make it complicated: Based on our
findings, a person named Vineet Katial was an officer, too. He is also listed as an officer
at two other dormant UK companies, Vistamoney Ltd and Vista Money Ltd.
Furthermore, Zatarra has written that Katial incorporated a couple of other companies,
e.g. Krores Cards Private Ltd in India and Krores LCC, U.S. The LinkedIn profile of Katial
reveals that he sold a company named Krores to a German listed bank. We havent
checked whether the profile is real or not.
Zatarra concludes that all information listed in its reportT
T(1) the incorporation of Krores UK,
T(2) other companies around the world which have Krores in the company name
T(3) Trautmann and Katial being officers at Krores UK at the same time
T(4) Katials LinkedIn profile
Tshould be evidence to conclude that Wirecard acquired Krores.
The facts and the logic which are used to conclude that Wirecard potentially bought a
company which was potentially incorporated by employees of Wirecard seem
questionable, in our view.
First, we have only indications about the person named Katial. Second, Wirecard said in
an email statement that it had never acquired Krores from Mr Knoechelmann, Mr
Trautmann or any other party. Furthermore, Wirecard wrote that it also does not have
any business relationship with Krores.
In our view it would be very helpful, if Wirecard could shed some light on the question,
why Trautmann was an officer at Krores UK together with a person (Katial) who seems
potentially to be involved in competitive payment businesses (while he was a board
member of Wirecard AG).
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Zatarras logic for the connection between Wirecard and Krores UK
Wirecard AG
Krores UK
Trautmann
Knoechelmann
incorporated: 2009
deleted: 2010
Officers
Katial
Potentially involved
in competitive
payment businesses
Oval 2123 was incorporated in 2006 and dissolved in 2011. It seems that Wirecard
acquired 51% in Oval 2123 in 2006 via its Gibraltar unit. Mr Trautmann and Mr Hartmann
(employees from Wirecard) had been officers at that time. Later on, according to our
findings in the commercial registers, Oval 2123 was completely taken over by Wirecard.
Until now, everything seems to be quite clear. Zatarra points out that Alexander Herbst
who left Wirecard in 2003, was appointed as an officer at Oval 2123 in 2006.
Again, we really do not comprehend how this or the Oval 2123 case are related to
criminal actions. Furthermore, it is not unusual, after a board member leaves a company,
that he or she is still involved in one or another project for a certain period of time.
Zatarra raises the question why Trautmann still signed Wirecard related filings ten
months after he had officially left the company? Mr Trautmann signed the filings for
striking off Oval 2123 at the end of 2010.
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
Wirecard
Kalder (Wiesbaden, Germany) had been officers, based on our findings in the company
registers of Florida. Then, Freddy Kalder was involved in the incorporation of a company
in the UK, Deutsche Zahlungsverkehrsgesellschaft Ltd. This information, as written in the
Zatarra report, again is correct.
However, when reading the Zatarra report one might get the impression that Kalder, who
was involved in money laundering together with Schuett in the U.S., incorporated the
German company EZV, Gesellschaft fr Zahlungssysteme mbH, which is a cooperation
partner of Wirecard. Based on our findings here, the Zatarra report could easily be
misinterpreted in our view.
Zatarra writes that USA AG Inc. had an address in Germany which seemingly had the
same address as EZV. Based on our research, this seems to be correct.
In the same complaint, Bluetool plays a key role. Apparently, Bluetool Ltd appears to
have been used as a money intermediary for gambling sites.
Again, it is a combination of different individual correct information which is used to
provide potential evidence of systematic money laundering.
UK Bluetool ltd
EZV
Wirecard
Bank
Account
International
Payment Systems
Schuett
Kalder
Business
partner of
Wirecard
ZATARRA
Conclusion
Bluemay Enterprises
Based on our findings, Bluemay Enterprises was incorporated in the UK in 2010. As
written in the report, owner of Bluemay enterprises was for a certain period of time again
Fermoya and the company Bournewoold was an officer for one year in 2010. The
company went insolvent.
Zatarra writes, (1) the potential connection to Wirecard is again via Bluetool (same
owners and offices), (2) Bluemay was a front page for gambling sites, and (3) Bluemay
had a bank account at Wirecard Bank in 2013.
Based on our findings, the provided document from the Insolvency Service from 2014
(Manchester District) shows:
Among the initial shareholders was Fermoya.
Company accounts show profits of GBP 478 in 2011 and GBP 833 in 2012.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
10
Wirecard
A company account at Wirecard Bank AG had total credits EUR 36.3m between June
30, 2011 and June 30, 2012. It was not possible to reconcile the apparent minimal
activity declared in the published accounts with the volume of transactions passing
through the companys Euro account.
Zatarra:
Related to Gambling
Bluetool ltd
Bluemay ltd
Officer
Owner
Owner
Owner
Ruediger
Trautmann
Fermoya
B.M.E.I
Fermoya
Fermoya
Again, it comes back to the question: Is it rather usual to take a nominee as an owner,
especially a firm which is registered at the British Virgin IslandsT
Tbecause if Fermoya is used from professional service or consultancy companies to
provide company formation services, the indicated connection between WirecardBluetool and Wirecard-Bluemay could potentially easily be explained.
Conclusion
Firstly the conclusion cannot be just yes or no, true or false. Secondly until now, we
havent checked all the data. For example, we havent done a closer look on the
allegations about Asia until now.
Thirdly - our findings show that a lot of information and data which is written in the
Zatarra report can be verified by some research work. However, and this is the key
question: Should the connections and conclusions made by Zatarra just be ignored?
A high part of concerns and insecurity would potentially disappear if Wirecard could
provide some more colour why Wirecard used Fermoya (even that Wire Card hadnt any
economic relevance) and why we observed quite a lot of incorporations by Mr Trautmann
while he was a board member of Wirecard.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
11
Wirecard
DCF model
Detailed forecast period
Transitional period
Term. Value
2015e
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
Sales
Sales change
749
24.6 %
968
29.2 %
1,159
19.8 %
1,367
18.0 %
1,600
17.0 %
1,840
15.0 %
2,060
12.0 %
2,266
10.0 %
2,470
9.0 %
2,668
8.0 %
2,828
6.0 %
2,913
3.0 %
2,956
1.5 %
EBIT
EBIT-margin
186
24.8 %
239
24.7 %
303
26.1 %
362
26.5 %
432
27.0 %
497
27.0 %
556
27.0 %
612
27.0 %
667
27.0 %
720
27.0 %
764
27.0 %
816
28.0 %
828
28.0 %
16.0 %
17.0 %
17.0 %
20.0 %
20.0 %
20.0 %
20.0 %
25.0 %
25.0 %
30.0 %
30.0 %
30.0 %
30.0 %
156
198
251
290
346
397
445
459
500
504
534
571
579
44
5.9 %
57
5.8 %
66
5.7 %
78
5.7 %
90
5.6 %
101
5.5 %
124
6.0 %
136
6.0 %
148
6.0 %
160
6.0 %
170
6.0 %
175
6.0 %
177
6.0 %
0
56
7.5 %
0
64
6.6 %
0
73
6.3 %
0
75
5.5 %
0
88
5.5 %
0
105
5.7 %
0
124
6.0 %
0
136
6.0 %
0
148
6.0 %
0
160
6.0 %
0
170
6.0 %
0
175
6.0 %
0
177
6.0 %
144
191
244
293
347
394
445
459
500
504
534
571
579
PV of FCF
146
180
214
239
264
278
293
281
285
267
264
262
248
Figures in EUR m
NOPAT
Depreciation
in % of Sales
Changes in provisions
Change in Liquidity from
- Working Capital
- Capex
Capex in % of Sales
Other
7.24 %
share of PVs
35.98 %
Model parameter
1.5 %
588
4,229
56.78 %
Valuation (m)
Derivation of WACC:
Derivation of Beta:
Debt ratio
Cost of debt (after tax)
Market return
Risk free rate
0.00 %
2.1 %
7.00 %
1.50 %
Financial Strength
Liquidity (share)
Cyclicality
Transparency
Others
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.18
WACC
7.45 %
Beta
1.08
3,220
4,229
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,449
121.7
61.18
Beta
1.26
1.17
1.13
1.08
1.04
0.99
0.90
WACC
8.4 %
7.9 %
7.7 %
7.4 %
7.2 %
6.9 %
6.4 %
Terminal Growth
0.75 % 1.00 %
49.02
49.83
52.86
53.84
55.00
56.08
57.29
58.49
59.77
61.10
62.46
63.94
68.56
70.42
1.25 %
50.69
54.89
57.24
59.78
62.54
65.55
72.46
1.50 %
51.62
56.02
58.50
61.18
64.11
67.31
74.70
1.75 %
52.61
57.25
59.86
62.71
65.82
69.24
77.19
2.00 %
53.69
58.57
61.34
64.37
67.70
71.36
79.95
2.25 %
54.85
60.02
62.96
66.20
69.76
73.71
83.04
Beta
1.26
1.17
1.13
1.08
1.04
0.99
0.90
WACC
8.4 %
7.9 %
7.7 %
7.4 %
7.2 %
6.9 %
6.4 %
Delta EBIT-margin
-1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp
48.78
49.73
50.67
51.62
52.57
53.51
54.46
52.95
53.97
55.00
56.02
57.05
58.07
59.10
55.29
56.36
57.43
58.50
59.57
60.64
61.71
61.18
57.83
58.95
60.07
62.30
63.42
64.54
60.60
61.77
62.94
64.11
65.28
66.45
67.62
69.77
71.00
63.63
64.86
66.09
67.31
68.54
70.62
71.98
73.34
74.70
76.06
77.42
78.78
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
12
Wirecard
Free Cash Flow Value Potential
Warburg Research's valuation tool "FCF Value Potential" reflects the ability of the company to generate sustainable free cash flows. It is based on the
"FCF potential" - a FCF "ex growth" figure - which assumes unchanged working capital and pure maintenance capex. A value indication is derived via
the perpetuity of a given years FCF potential with consideration of the weighted costs of capital. The fluctuating value indications over time add a
timing element to the DCF model (our preferred valuation tool).
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
61
8
-2
9
0
72
16
-2
14
0
83
27
-4
40
0
117
40
-7
50
0
150
44
-7
55
0
190
57
-10
55
0
243
66
-10
55
0
63
5.8 %
7.45 %
77
4.9 %
7.45 %
74
3.1 %
7.45 %
114
3.4 %
7.45 %
146
3.8 %
7.45 %
202
5.1 %
7.45 %
263
7.1 %
7.45 %
1,085
1,569
2,394
3,342
3,876
3,930
3,705
842
1,031
994
1,526
1,966
2,707
3,536
-323
0
-90
0
0
-323
0
-90
0
0
-323
0
-90
0
0
-323
0
-90
0
0
-362
0
0
0
0
-309
0
0
0
0
-533
0
0
0
0
1,255
1,444
1,407
1,938
2,329
3,016
4,069
122
122
122
122
122
122
122
10.31
11.86
11.56
15.92
19.13
24.77
33.43
-45.1 %
-28.8 %
-4.0 %
14.49
15.71
17.21
19.13
21.63
25.06
30.03
18.39
20.07
22.14
24.77
28.22
32.94
39.78
25.08
27.28
29.99
33.43
37.93
44.09
53.03
in EUR m
+
+
WACC
10.45 %
9.45 %
8.45 %
7.45 %
6.45 %
5.45 %
4.45 %
8.32
8.84
9.49
10.31
11.38
12.84
14.97
9.43
10.07
10.86
11.86
13.17
14.97
17.57
9.21
9.83
10.59
11.56
12.82
14.55
17.07
12.32
13.27
14.44
15.92
17.87
20.53
24.38
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
13
Wirecard
Valuation
Price / Book
Book value per share ex intangibles
EV / Sales
EV / EBITDA
EV / EBIT
EV / EBIT adj.*
P / FCF
P/E
P / E adj.*
Dividend Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield Potential
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
3.5 x
0.74
3.3 x
12.8 x
14.3 x
14.3 x
32.9 x
19.8 x
19.8 x
0.8 %
5.8 %
3.3 x
1.73
4.0 x
14.3 x
16.9 x
15.3 x
25.1 x
24.3 x
21.9 x
0.6 %
4.9 %
4.2 x
1.47
5.0 x
19.0 x
24.3 x
21.6 x
29.6 x
30.6 x
27.3 x
0.5 %
3.1 %
3.5 x
3.30
5.6 x
19.3 x
25.1 x
25.1 x
43.6 x
34.7 x
31.2 x
0.4 %
3.4 %
3.5 x
4.27
5.2 x
16.9 x
20.8 x
20.8 x
27.3 x
28.3 x
24.3 x
0.4 %
3.8 %
3.1 x
3.71
4.1 x
13.3 x
16.4 x
16.4 x
19.1 x
22.3 x
19.1 x
0.4 %
5.1 %
2.6 x
5.56
3.2 x
10.1 x
12.2 x
12.2 x
15.7 x
17.5 x
16.0 x
0.4 %
7.1 %
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
51
24.4 %
73
22.7 %
80
17.4 %
121
24.7 %
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
14
Wirecard
Consolidated profit & loss
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
Sales
Change Sales yoy
325
19.6 %
394
21.3 %
482
22.3 %
601
24.8 %
749
24.6 %
968
29.2 %
1,159
19.8 %
0
7
332
189
325
44.1 %
0
10
404
230
394
44.3 %
0
21
502
288
482
44.5 %
0
25
626
341
601
47.5 %
0
26
775
405
749
49.4 %
0
28
996
523
968
48.8 %
0
30
1,189
627
1,159
48.5 %
Personnel expenses
Other operating income
Other operating expenses
Unfrequent items
EBITDA
Margin
28
1
32
0
85
26.0 %
37
4
33
0
109
27.8 %
48
7
47
0
126
26.1 %
66
7
53
0
173
28.8 %
88
5
57
0
230
30.7 %
110
7
74
0
296
30.5 %
118
9
84
0
368
31.8 %
1
84
8
0
76
23.4 %
76
3
106
13
0
93
23.6 %
103
4
122
23
0
99
20.5 %
111
8
165
32
0
133
22.1 %
133
8
222
36
0
186
24.8 %
186
10
286
47
0
239
24.7 %
239
11
358
55
0
303
26.1 %
303
Interest income
Interest expenses
Other financial income (loss)
EBT
Margin
0
2
0
74
22.8 %
3
5
0
91
23.0 %
2
6
0
94
19.6 %
1
8
0
126
21.0 %
1
8
0
179
23.9 %
0
10
0
229
23.7 %
0
10
0
293
25.2 %
Total taxes
Net income from continuing operations
Income from discontinued operations (net of tax)
Net income before minorities
Minority interest
Net income
Margin
13
61
0
61
0
61
18.9 %
18
73
0
72
0
73
18.4 %
12
83
0
83
0
83
17.2 %
18
108
0
117
0
108
18.0 %
29
150
0
150
0
150
20.0 %
39
190
0
190
0
190
19.6 %
50
243
0
243
0
243
21.0 %
102
0.60
0.60
112
0.65
0.72
112
0.74
0.83
122
0.89
0.99
122
1.23
1.43
122
1.56
1.82
122
1.99
2.17
In EUR m
Guidance: EBITDA 2015e: EUR 210m - EUR 230m; 2016e: EUR 280m - EUR 300m
Financial Ratios
Total Operating Costs / Sales
Operating Leverage
EBITDA / Interest expenses
Tax rate (EBT)
Dividend Payout Ratio
Sales per Employee
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
76.3 %
0.7 x
35.6 x
17.2 %
16.6 %
698,488
75.0 %
1.0 x
21.5 x
19.7 %
15.4 %
847,312
78.2 %
0.3 x
21.7 x
12.3 %
16.2 %
1,036,009
75.4 %
1.4 x
22.4 x
14.4 %
14.7 %
1,292,542
72.8 %
1.6 x
28.8 x
16.0 %
10.5 %
1,610,753
72.4 %
1.0 x
29.6 x
17.0 %
8.3 %
2,080,645
70.8 %
1.3 x
36.8 x
17.0 %
6.5 %
2,491,640
Sales, EBITDA
Operating Performance
in EUR m
in %
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
15
Wirecard
Consolidated balance sheet
In EUR m
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
265
116
128
3
27
0
295
1
182
222
7
412
707
348
177
142
12
99
0
459
2
215
443
9
669
1,128
444
254
146
14
127
0
586
5
279
547
14
845
1,431
671
391
218
16
124
0
811
3
355
818
8
1,184
1,995
687
400
225
26
148
0
861
5
376
902
37
1,320
2,181
930
643
225
31
148
0
1,109
5
430
919
54
1,408
2,516
932
645
225
36
148
0
1,116
5
455
1,173
54
1,687
2,803
102
11
228
0
341
0
341
2
0
191
1
135
37
366
707
112
140
290
-1
542
0
542
8
0
337
15
187
55
586
1,128
112
142
354
0
608
0
608
8
0
493
16
259
62
822
1,431
123
493
453
3
1,073
0
1,073
11
0
495
9
298
118
922
1,995
123
493
440
150
1,207
0
1,207
12
0
540
10
312
110
974
2,181
123
493
575
190
1,381
0
1,381
13
0
610
10
400
112
1,135
2,516
123
493
749
243
1,608
0
1,608
15
0
640
10
430
110
1,195
2,803
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
6.4 x
1.0 x
20.8 %
9.5 x
0.9 x
15.8 %
12.5 x
0.9 x
14.1 %
7.9 x
0.8 x
13.3 %
7.9 x
0.9 x
17.4 %
14.7 x
0.9 x
17.1 %
17.5 x
1.1 x
21.8 %
23.1 %
19.5 %
19.5 %
20.0 %
16.5 %
18.2 %
17.5 %
14.4 %
16.1 %
17.4 %
12.8 %
14.3 %
19.6 %
13.2 %
15.3 %
20.7 %
14.7 %
17.2 %
23.4 %
16.2 %
17.7 %
-31
-31
-9.2 %
n.a.
3.3
0.7
-106
-106
-19.5 %
n.a.
4.8
1.7
-54
-54
-8.9 %
n.a.
5.4
1.5
-323
-323
-30.1 %
n.a.
8.8
3.3
-362
-362
-30.0 %
n.a.
9.9
4.3
-309
-309
-22.4 %
n.a.
11.3
3.7
-533
-533
-33.2 %
n.a.
13.2
5.6
Assets
Goodwill and other intangible assets
thereof other intangible assets
thereof Goodwill
Property, plant and equipment
Financial assets
Other long-term assets
Fixed assets
Inventories
Accounts receivable
Liquid assets
Other short-term assets
Current assets
Total Assets
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
Subscribed capital
Capital reserve
Retained earnings
Other equity components
Shareholders' equity
Minority interest
Total equity
Provisions
thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations
Financial liabilities (total)
thereof short-term financial liabilities
Accounts payable
Other liabilities
Liabilities
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
Financial Ratios
Efficiency of Capital Employment
Operating Assets Turnover
Capital Employed Turnover
ROA
Return on Capital
ROCE (NOPAT)
ROE
Adj. ROE
Balance sheet quality
Net Debt
Net Financial Debt
Net Gearing
Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA
Book Value / Share
Book value per share ex intangibles
ROCE Development
Net debt
in EUR m
in EUR
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
16
Wirecard
Consolidated cash flow statement
In EUR m
Net income
Depreciation of fixed assets
Amortisation of goodwill
Amortisation of intangible assets
Increase/decrease in long-term provisions
Other non-cash income and expenses
Cash Flow
Increase / decrease in inventory
Increase / decrease in accounts receivable
Increase / decrease in accounts payable
Increase / decrease in other working capital positions
Increase / decrease in working capital (total)
Net cash provided by operating activities
Investments in intangible assets
Investments in property, plant and equipment
Payments for acquisitions
Financial investments
Income from asset disposals
Net cash provided by investing activities
Change in financial liabilities
Dividends paid
Purchase of own shares
Capital measures
Other
Net cash provided by financing activities
Change in liquid funds
Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash
Cash and cash equivalent at end of period
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
61
1
0
8
0
0
70
0
-63
37
3
-24
46
-7
-2
-21
0
0
-58
53
-10
0
0
0
42
30
0
142
72
3
0
13
0
0
88
-1
-33
52
-10
8
96
-22
-3
-106
0
0
-131
9
-11
0
141
-5
134
98
-1
240
83
4
0
23
0
11
122
-3
-63
72
0
6
127
-35
-6
-28
-83
0
-162
130
-12
0
0
-10
107
72
-1
311
117
8
0
32
0
3
159
1
-76
39
5
-30
129
-35
-8
-83
-12
0
-170
-153
-15
0
367
-15
184
143
2
501
150
8
0
36
0
0
194
-2
-21
14
27
17
211
-45
-11
-7
-24
0
-87
12
-16
0
0
-36
-40
84
0
656
190
10
0
47
0
0
247
0
-54
88
6
40
286
-50
-14
0
0
0
-64
50
-16
0
0
-240
-206
17
0
673
243
11
0
55
0
0
308
0
-25
30
30
35
343
-57
-16
0
0
0
-73
0
-16
0
0
0
-16
255
0
928
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
77
11.3 %
63
59.8 %
0.2 %
1.4 %
99
17.8 %
77
96.7 %
0.8 %
1.9 %
105
17.8 %
74
103.8 %
0.3 %
1.4 %
148
14.3 %
114
79.7 %
0.1 %
1.6 %
204
20.7 %
146
103.5 %
0.1 %
1.5 %
268
23.0 %
202
117.0 %
0.0 %
1.7 %
338
23.3 %
263
111.4 %
0.0 %
1.6 %
2.7 %
2.8 %
104.9 %
10.5 %
134.5 %
242.8 x
205
261
-259
6.4 %
3.6 %
162.0 %
9.8 %
115.1 %
141.3 x
200
297
-293
8.6 %
8.3 %
150.5 %
5.6 %
107.6 %
61.9 x
211
329
-319
7.2 %
8.3 %
107.3 %
7.0 %
118.8 %
102.9 x
215
320
-314
7.5 %
7.3 %
127.3 %
8.6 %
120.5 %
81.0 x
183
281
-274
6.6 %
5.7 %
113.3 %
5.4 %
107.5 %
104.6 x
162
279
-274
6.3 %
4.7 %
111.5 %
2.8 %
105.8 %
125.4 x
143
250
-246
Financial Ratios
Cash Flow
FCF
Free Cash Flow / Sales
Free Cash Flow Potential
Free Cash Flow / Net Profit
Interest Received / Avg. Cash
Interest Paid / Avg. Debt
Management of Funds
Investment ratio
Maint. Capex / Sales
Capex / Dep
Avg. Working Capital / Sales
Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors
Inventory Turnover
Receivables collection period (days)
Payables payment period (days)
Cash conversion cycle (Days)
Working Capital
in EUR m
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
17
Wirecard
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The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of
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SOURCES
All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
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-1-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, or an employee of one of these companies responsible for the compilation of the
research, hold a share of more than 5% of the equity capital of the analysed company.
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium
-2-
for an issue in the course of a public offering of such financial instruments, which are, or the issuer of which is, the subject of the
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-4-
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-5-
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-6-
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-7-
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Company
Disclosure
Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
Wirecard
6, 7
http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0007472060.htm
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
19
Wirecard
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of
the analyst who covers this financial instrument.
-B-
Buy:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H-
Hold:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12
months.
-S-
Sell:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
Rating suspended:
The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
127
66
Hold
56
29
Sell
Rating suspended
191
100
Total
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
26
81
Hold
13
Sell
Rating suspended
32
100
Total
NOTE
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
20
Wirecard
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USA
pdontenwill@mmwarburg.com
Matthias Fritsch
Marie-Therese Grbner
hnass@mmwarburg.com
+49 40 3282-2630
mgruebner@mmwarburg.com
+49 40 3282-2695
United Kingdom
mkriszun@mmwarburg.com
Marc Niemann
+49 40 3282-2660
Germany
mniemann@mmwarburg.com
Fabian Roggemann
+49 40 3282-2667
USA
froggemann@mmwarburg.com
Sanjay Oberoi
+49 69 5050-7410
United Kingdom
soberoi@mmwarburg.com
Juliane Willenbruch
+49 40 3282-2694
Roadshow/Marketing
jwillenbruch@mmwarburg.com
+49 40 3282-2696
United Kingdom
mfritsch@mmwarburg.com
SALES TRADING
Oliver Merckel
+49 40 3282-2634
omerckel@mmwarburg.com
Michael Ilgenstein
+49 40 3282-2700
Sales Trading
milgenstein@mmwarburg.com
Bastian Quast
Jrg Treptow
+49 40 3262-2658
Sales Trading
jtreptow@mmwarburg.com
Jan Walter
+49 40 3262-2662
Sales Trading
jwalter@mmwarburg.com
+49 40 3282-2701
Sales Trading
bquast@mmwarburg.com
MACRO RESEARCH
Carsten Klude
+49 40 3282-2572
Macro Research
cklude@mmwarburg.com
Matthias Thiel
+49 40 3282-2439
cjasperneite@mmwarburg.com
+49 40 3282-2401
Macro Research
mthiel@mmwarburg.com
research.mmwarburg.com/en/index.html
Bloomberg
FactSet
MMWA GO
www.factset.com
Thomson
www.thomson.com
Reuters
www.knowledge.reuters.com
Capital IQ
www.capitaliq.com
+49 40 3282-2632
aschaper@mmwarburg.com
NOTE
Kerstin Muthig
+49 40 3282-2703
Sales Assistance
P u bl i s h e d 1 0 . 0 3 . 2 0 1 6
kmuthig@mmwarburg.com
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