almost 49 million trans-Pacific

passengers by 2010.
In line with passenger growth
forecasts, aircraft movements
across the Pacific are expected
to increase from an estimated
97,220 in 1994 to more than
125,000 in 2000. If so, annual
aircraft movements would
increase by 4.3 per cent. By
2010, the Group forecasts that
transpacific aircraft movements
will reach 192,000.
Australian growth

Asia-Pacific airlines are expected to

grow at a faster rate than the global
average.

N ITS LATEST FORECASTS,

the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

predicts the worldwide air trailsport boom will continue.
ICAO forecasts that total
world passenger traffic will grow
at an average rate of 5.5 per cent
per year from 1995 to 2005.
Assuming this growth, there
would be an increase of around
70 per cent in passenger traffic
during this decade.
Statistics include international and domestic traffic and are
measured in passenger-kilometres travelled.
From 1995 to 2005, ICAO predicts that worldwide international passenger traffic is likely to
grow at a rate faster than total
world traffic, with a predicted
average growth rate of 7 per cent
per annum. If this is the case, the
number of worldwide international passengers travelling in
2005 will be almost double the
number who travelled in 1995.

In the 7 years from 1993 to

2000, intra Asia-Pacific passenger traffic is forecast to increase
by approximately 55 per cent, at
an annual growth of 6.4 per
cent, peaking at around 85 million passengers in 2000.
Similarly, the number of passengers travelling intra AsiaPacific is forecast to grow at a
rate of 6.2 per cent per year in
the decade from 2000, with 72
million more passengers expected to travel in 2010 than in 2000.
This predicted growth follows
an increase in intra Asia-Pacific
travel of around 28.5 million
passengers from 1982 (26.7 million passengers) to 1993 (55.2

million passengers), at an average annual increase of 6.8 per

cent.
With forecasts based on Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) and
yield projections, the ICAO
Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasting Group predicts that, for
the period 1994 to 2000,
transpacific passenger traffic
will increase at an average 6.9
per cent a year. This will increase
the number of passengers crossing the Pacific to 27 million in
2000.
For the decade 2000 to 2010,
the Group predicts a somewhat
lower rate of 6.1 per cent per
annum, resulting in a forecast of

The number of revenue passengers carried on international

scheduled air services to and
from Australia increased by 9.8
per cent for the year ended
October 1996 over the year
ended October 1995, according
to statistics produced by the
Department of Transport and
Regional Development.
Sydney's Kingsford Smith
Airport accounted for almost 49
per cent of the total international passenger traffic through
Australian airports for the year
to October 1996, followed by
Melbourne with 16.5 per cent,
Brisbane with 16.4 per cent,
Perth with 9.8 per cent and
Cairns with 5.5 per cent.
Copies of these reports can be
purchased from AVSTATS in the
Department of Transport and
Regional Development, phone
06 274 7720, fax 06 274 7727.
Joanne Nelson is a communications
officer with CASA.

Asia-Pacific passenger forecast (scheduled international) 1994-2010

Passengers carried (millions)

High
Most
likely
Low

Asia-Pacific

Similarly, traffic in the AsiaPacific market is predicted to

grow at a rate faster than the
worldwide growth rates, according to the ICAO Asia/Pacific Area
Traffic Forecasting Group.

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8 FLIGHT SAFETY AUSTRALIA AUTUMN 1997

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