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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

May 31-June 2, 2016


436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q1. Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
Gender
Vote Choice

Right track
Wrong direction
Don't know/No opinion

Total
9%
86%
5%

Male
9%
86%
5%

Female
9%
86%
5%

Faso
8%
88%
4%

Heaney
10%
85%
4%

Ulster/
Dutchess
10%
86%
4%

I'm going to read a series of names of people and institutions in public life and I'd like you to tell me whether you have a fav
ROTATED]
Q2. Zephyr Teachout
Gender
Vote Choice

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
11%
27%
62%

Male
11%
27%
62%

Female
11%
27%
62%

Faso
8%
37%
55%

Heaney
16%
25%
59%

Ulster/
Dutchess
14%
21%
65%

Q3. John Faso


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
47%
30%
23%

Male
47%
31%
22%

Female
48%
29%
24%

Vote Choice
Faso
81%
9%
11%

Heaney
12%
69%
19%

Ulster/
Dutchess
39%
33%
29%

Q4. Andrew Heaney


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
29%
45%
26%

Male
26%
45%
29%

Female
32%
45%
23%

Vote Choice
Faso
12%
68%
20%

Heaney
75%
13%
11%

Ulster/
Dutchess
35%
31%
33%

Q5. Barack Obama


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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Gender
Vote Choice

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
15%
84%
1%

Male
14%
86%
1%

Female
16%
82%
2%

Faso
11%
88%
1%

Heaney
16%
83%
1%

Ulster/
Dutchess
15%
84%
1%

Q6. Hillary Clinton


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
10%
88%
2%

Male
8%
91%
1%

320511063.xlsx

Female
12%
85%
3%

Vote Choice
Faso
7%
91%
2%

Heaney
16%
82%
2%

Ulster/
Dutchess
9%
90%
1%

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Q7. Bernie Sanders

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
25%
71%
4%

Male
24%
71%
5%

Female
26%
71%
3%

Vote Choice
Faso
23%
73%
4%

Heaney
30%
67%
4%

Ulster/
Dutchess
25%
72%
3%

Q8. Donald Trump


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
65%
31%
4%

Male
71%
26%
3%

Female
59%
37%
5%

Vote Choice
Faso
65%
30%
4%

Heaney
69%
29%
2%

Ulster/
Dutchess
62%
32%
5%

Q9. Chris Gibson


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
86%
7%
7%

Male
90%
7%
4%

Female
82%
8%
11%

Vote Choice
Faso
91%
6%
3%

Heaney
87%
9%
5%

Ulster/
Dutchess
85%
8%
7%

Q10. Will Yandik


Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
4%
17%
79%

Male
4%
21%
75%

Female
5%
11%
84%

Vote Choice
Faso
5%
21%
74%

Heaney
4%
15%
81%

Ulster/
Dutchess
2%
15%
84%

Q11. If the Republican primary election for Member of Congress from the 19th Congressional District was held today, who wo
Gender
Vote Choice
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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Don't know/No opinion

Total
50%
28%
21%

Male
53%
26%
21%

320511063.xlsx

Female
48%
31%
21%

Faso
100%
0%
0%

Heaney
0%
100%
0%

Ulster/
Dutchess
39%
35%
27%

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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Q12. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]?
Gender
Vote Choice
Total

Male

Female

Faso

Heaney

Ulster/
Dutchess

Absolutely certain; theres no chance I


will change my mind

47%

50%

43%

48%

44%

44%

Fairly certain; its unlikely I will change


my mind

34%

36%

33%

35%

34%

33%

Not very certain; I very well may change


my mind

14%

10%

19%

14%

13%

16%

5%

4%

6%

3%

8%

6%

1%

1%

0%

0%

2%

1%

Not certain at all; theres a good chance


I will change my mind
Don't know/No opinion

Q13. Of the following issues, which single issue is the most important one you want your Member of Congress to be working
Gender
Vote Choice

Health care
Education
Protecting the Second Amendment
Immigration reform
The federal budget deficit
Jobs
National defense
Vol: Something else
Don't know/No opinion

Total
9%
7%
17%
7%
20%
19%
17%
3%
0%

Male
7%
5%
19%
9%
24%
16%
17%
3%
0%

Female
11%
10%
15%
5%
16%
23%
17%
3%
0%

Faso
8%
4%
17%
6%
22%
20%
20%
2%
0%

Heaney
10%
7%
13%
8%
21%
21%
16%
4%
0%

Ulster/
Dutchess
9%
7%
17%
10%
20%
23%
11%
3%
0%

Q14. Of the remaining issues, which one is the next most important issue you want your Member of Congress to be working
Gender
Vote Choice

Health care
Education

Total
14%
6%

Male
12%
2%
320511063.xlsx

Female
15%
10%

Faso
13%
7%

Heaney
16%
4%

Ulster/
Dutchess
11%
4%
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Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Protecting the Second Amendment
13%
16%
10%
12%
17%
Immigration reform
14%
17%
10%
12%
16%
The federal budget deficit
15%
14%
15%
17%
11%
Jobs
18%
21%
14%
19%
17%
National defense
20%
17%
24%
18%
17%
Vol: Something else
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
Don't know/No opinion
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%

14%
16%
18%
13%
23%
1%
0%

Q15. Have you been contacted on behalf of either of the Republican candidates for the 19th District whether it was by mail,
Gender
Vote Choice

Yes
No
Don't know/Refused

Total
76%
24%
0%

Male
78%
22%
0%

Female
74%
25%
1%

Faso
80%
19%
0%

Heaney
81%
18%
1%

Ulster/
Dutchess
78%
21%
1%

Q16. (If contacted on behalf of candidate) Which candidates campaign contacted you?
Gender
Vote Choice

John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Don't know/No opinion

Total
73%
81%
5%

Male
77%
83%
3%

Female
68%
79%
8%

Faso
80%
78%
4%

Heaney
63%
90%
4%

Ulster/
Dutchess
67%
84%
6%

Q17. Have you seen or heard any advertising for either of the Republican candidates for the 19th District whether on televis
Gender
Vote Choice

Yes
No
Don't know/Refused

Total
78%
22%
1%

Male
76%
23%
0%

Female
79%
20%
1%

Faso
81%
18%
0%

Heaney
83%
17%
0%

Ulster/
Dutchess
67%
32%
1%

Q18. (If seen or heard any advertising) Which candidates advertising have you seen or heard?
Gender
Vote Choice
320511063.xlsx

6 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Don't know/No opinion

Total
84%
85%
5%

Male
88%
84%
4%

Female
79%
86%
5%

Faso
89%
84%
3%

Heaney
80%
91%
1%

Ulster/
Dutchess
80%
85%
4%

Q19. Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think has been waging the more NEGATIVE campaign? [CHOICE
Gender
Vote Choice

John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Vol: Both
Vol: Neither
Don't know/No opinion

Total
20%
36%
12%
6%
26%

Male
20%
37%
13%
8%
22%

Female
20%
35%
10%
4%
30%

Faso
7%
61%
11%
6%
15%

Heaney
50%
11%
12%
4%
22%

Ulster/
Dutchess
23%
25%
7%
8%
36%

Q20. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which of the two candidates do you think is most likely to win the primary on
Gender
Vote Choice

John Faso
Andrew Heaney
Don't know/No opinion

Total
50%
27%
23%

Male
55%
26%
19%

320511063.xlsx

Female
45%
28%
27%

Faso
82%
7%
10%

Heaney
19%
67%
14%

Ulster/
Dutchess
36%
34%
30%

7 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%

Nature of the Sample


NY CD19 Registered Republicans (Likely Voters)
Political View
Moderate
Conservative
Region
Ulster/Dutchess
Sullivan/Broome/Delaware/Otsego
Montgomery/Schoharie/Greene/
Columbia/Rennselaer
Religion
Catholic
Protestant
Other
Age
Under 55
55 and older
Gender
Male
Female

33%
64%
33%
29%
37%
35%
53%
11%
26%
74%
55%
45%

320511063.xlsx

8 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
9%
84%
6%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
8%
87%
6%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
4%
10%
9%
90%
84%
84%
6%
5%
6%

Religion
Prot
7%
89%
4%

Political View
Other
17%
76%
7%

Mod
15%
75%
10%

Conserv
4%
93%
2%

ether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each person or institution I name. [Q2-Q10

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
10%
24%
65%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
8%
35%
57%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
45%
24%
31%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
57%
32%
11%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
30%
42%
28%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
23%
59%
18%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
11%
10%
11%
34%
25%
32%
55%
65%
57%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
42%
49%
48%
36%
28%
32%
22%
23%
21%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
30%
29%
27%
50%
43%
43%
20%
28%
30%

320511063.xlsx

Religion
Prot
10%
24%
66%

Political View
Other
13%
24%
63%

Religion
Prot
49%
27%
24%

Conserv
8%
29%
63%

Political View
Other
44%
37%
20%

Religion
Prot
31%
45%
24%

Mod
15%
24%
61%

Mod
44%
33%
23%

Conserv
49%
28%
23%

Political View
Other
34%
46%
20%

Mod
34%
39%
27%

Conserv
27%
48%
25%

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Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
13%
85%
2%

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Age
Religion
Political View

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
15%
84%
1%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
11%
87%
2%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
10%
87%
3%

Under 55 and
55
older Cath
9%
17%
14%
90%
82%
85%
1%
1%
1%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
6%
11%
11%
91%
87%
88%
3%
2%
1%

320511063.xlsx

Prot
14%
85%
1%

Other
21%
76%
3%

Religion
Prot
8%
90%
2%

Mod
24%
72%
4%

Conserv
7%
93%
0%

Political View
Other
13%
80%
7%

Mod
17%
79%
4%

Conserv
4%
95%
1%

10 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
22%
72%
5%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
26%
69%
5%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
69%
28%
3%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
64%
32%
3%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
83%
6%
11%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
90%
7%
3%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
5%
14%
81%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
7%
20%
73%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
21%
26%
26%
76%
69%
72%
3%
5%
2%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
62%
66%
72%
35%
30%
26%
3%
4%
2%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
82%
88%
88%
12%
6%
7%
7%
7%
5%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
10%
2%
3%
27%
13%
17%
64%
85%
79%

Religion
Prot
23%
71%
6%

Other
29%
66%
5%

Religion
Prot
61%
35%
5%

Prot
84%
7%
9%

Other
61%
31%
7%

Conserv
17%
80%
4%

Mod
52%
43%
4%

Conserv
74%
22%
4%

Political View
Other
91%
5%
3%

Religion
Prot
5%
16%
79%

Mod
38%
55%
7%

Political View

Religion

s held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [CHOICES ROTATED]
Region
Age
Religion
320511063.xlsx

Political View

Mod
89%
5%
6%

Conserv
86%
8%
7%

Political View
Other
5%
16%
79%

Mod
5%
16%
79%

Conserv
3%
17%
80%

Political View
11 of 16

Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
49%
30%
21%

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District
MOE +/- 4.8%
Montgomery/Schoharie/
Under 55 and
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
55
older Cath Prot Other
62%
52%
50%
52%
52%
41%
21%
30%
28%
28%
29%
28%
17%
18%
23%
20%
19%
32%

320511063.xlsx

19
Mod
46%
32%
22%

Conserv
52%
27%
21%

12 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%
Region

Age

Religion

Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer

Under 55 and
55
older Cath

36%

56%

39%

49%

42%

30%

40%

16%

10%

5%
1%

Prot

Other

Mod

Conserv

44%

47%

49%

50%

44%

32%

37%

32%

40%

31%

36%

19%

12%

16%

14%

6%

13%

14%

4%

2%

6%

1%

7%

6%

4%

5%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

0%

2%

0%

ngress to be working on in Washington: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
9%
8%
14%
6%
17%
17%
26%
3%
0%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
10%
6%
20%
5%
24%
18%
15%
2%
1%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
18%
5%

Age

Under 55 and
55
older Cath
7%
10%
10%
6%
7%
6%
19%
16%
12%
6%
7%
3%
21%
20%
18%
20%
19%
24%
19%
16%
25%
3%
3%
2%
0%
0%
1%

gress to be working on in Washington? [CHOICES ROTATED]


Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
11%
7%

Political View

Age

Under 55 and
55
older Cath
10%
15%
9%
4%
6%
6%
320511063.xlsx

Religion
Prot
9%
9%
16%
10%
22%
18%
13%
4%
0%

Political View
Other
13%
2%
37%
4%
17%
14%
14%
0%
0%

Religion
Prot
20%
6%

Mod
12%
10%
9%
5%
23%
21%
16%
4%
1%

Conserv
7%
4%
21%
8%
20%
19%
17%
2%
0%

Political View
Other
2%
2%

Mod
15%
8%

Conserv
11%
4%
13 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional
MOE +/- 4.8%
14%
16%
12%
12%
15%
13%
13%
14%
14%
13%
14%
14%
15%
19%
12%
18%
23%
16%
18%
14%
15%
17%
21%
21%
19%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%

11%
12%
11%
23%
22%
1%
0%

District 19
7%
18%
11%
32%
25%
0%
3%

ether it was by mail, by email, by telephone, or in person by a campaign worker?


Region
Age
Religion
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
74%
26%
0%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
76%
24%
1%

Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
76%
81%
6%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
78%
79%
4%

Under 55 and
55
older Cath
70%
78%
74%
30%
21%
26%
0%
1%
0%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
73%
73%
69%
77%
82%
82%
6%
5%
5%

ct whether on television, radio, on the internet or in some other place?


Region
Age
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
72%
27%
1%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
91%
8%
1%

Region

Under 55 and
55
older Cath
78%
77%
74%
22%
22%
26%
0%
1%
1%

Age
320511063.xlsx

Prot
79%
21%
1%

Other
71%
29%
0%

Religion

Mod
77%
22%
1%

Conserv
76%
23%
0%

Political View
Other
73%
94%
0%

Religion
Prot
80%
19%
1%

16%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1%
0%

Political View

Religion
Prot
76%
78%
6%

9%
14%
12%
17%
22%
1%
2%

Mod
76%
84%
3%

Conserv
72%
81%
6%

Political View
Other
76%
24%
0%

Mod
72%
26%
2%

Conserv
80%
20%
0%

Political View
14 of 16

Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
79%
76%
7%

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District
MOE +/- 4.8%
Montgomery/Schoharie/
Under 55 and
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
55
older Cath Prot Other
89%
80%
85%
80%
86%
84%
90%
78%
87%
87%
83%
84%
3%
7%
4%
4%
4%
7%

campaign? [CHOICES ROTATED]


Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
18%
34%
14%
6%
28%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
19%
48%
14%
5%
14%

o win the primary on June 28th? [CHOICES ROTATED]


Region
Sullivan/Broome/
Delaware/Otsego
48%
28%
24%

Montgomery/Schoharie/
Greene/Columbia/Rennselaer
64%
20%
16%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
25%
18%
16%
35%
37%
37%
7%
13%
13%
4%
7%
8%
28%
25%
27%

Age
Under 55 and
55
older Cath
54%
49%
49%
26%
27%
30%
20%
24%
21%

320511063.xlsx

Religion
Prot
24%
37%
9%
6%
24%

Mod
87%
85%
6%

Conserv
82%
85%
4%

Political View
Other
19%
31%
17%
2%
31%

Religion
Prot
51%
28%
21%

19

Mod
24%
31%
11%
8%
26%

Conserv
19%
40%
12%
5%
25%

Political View
Other
54%
15%
30%

Mod
48%
27%
25%

Conserv
52%
27%
22%

15 of 16

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll


May 31-June 2, 2016
436 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.8%

320511063.xlsx

16 of 16

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