General Scientific Researches, Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016. pp.

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The Impact of El Nio and La Nia on the

United Arab Emirates (UAE) Rainfall
Mohamed AlEbri*
Department of Meteorology, National Centre of Meteorology & Seismology (NCMS), Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Hasan Arman
Professor. Department of Environmental Science, College of Science, UAE University (UAEU), AlAin, UAE.

Abdeltawab Shalaby
Department of Research & Development, National Centre of Meteorology & Seismology (NCMS), Abu Dhabi, UAE.
*Corresponding author: bunhyan@gmail.com

Keywords

Abstract

El Nio and La Nia

Rainfall
Drought Index (EDI)
UAE

This study focuses on the impact of El Nio and La Nia on rainfall in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
From the study and analysis of rainfall data for the UAE, collected between 1980 and 2013, it was found that
the phenomena of El Nio and La Nia have an impact on the amount of rainfall in the United Arab
Emirates. An UAE Effective Drought Index (EDI) was created from monthly rainfall data for UAE. When
this index was compared with the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Nino 3.4 Index of the El Nio and La Nia
phenomena, it could be obviously seen in the generated graph that most periods in which an El Nio was
dominant there were increased amounts of rain, and vice versa for La Nia that led to less rainfall amounts.
This is due to the effect of El Nio and La Nia on weather patterns in the atmosphere, such as Jet Streams
and Rossby Waves that travel around the globe, UAE is one of them.

1.

Introduction

The oceanic current that alternates along the west coast of Southern America creates El Nio and La Nia patterns. These terms derive from
Spanish and translate to The Boy and The Girl respectively. As winds blow from high pressure belts to low pressure belts across the Pacific
Ocean, ocean currents are created following the pattern of the winds. El Nio and La Nia are anomalies to the normal pattern and are referred to
as the reversed oceanic currents. In these conditions, the winds must reverse. Furthermore, El Nio and La Nia refers to the fluctuations of the
sea-level pressures in the southern Pacific and the sea surface temperatures in eastern Equatorial Pacific in a time period of between two to seven
years [1].
After two to seven years, warm winds move southwards along the coast of South America, and continue for as long as seven months. This is
then followed by heavy rains, especially along the coastal regions of Ecuador and north Peru. These periodic warmings are called an El Nio. In
the 1960s, scientists started to associate these abnormal periodic warm waters in South America with those throughout the equatorial pacific [2].
Furthermore, more than average warm waters were related to the oscillations of the atmospheric pressures, known as the El Nio Southern
Oscillation (ENSO).
In different countries, different names are used to refer to El Nio, including El Nio Southern Oscillation episode and Pacific warm episode
[3]. The main difference between El Nio and La Nia is that La Nia is associated with cool waters in mostly the central equatorial pacific,
while El Nino is associated with a warm water episode. This causes a change in the distribution and intensity of rainfall in the tropics and in sea
level pressure patterns (this is also the high-index phase of Southern Oscillation) and it is these weather patterns in the atmosphere that affect
most parts in the world. La Nia is also referred to by different names across the different regions in the world, for instance it is also known as
The Pacific Cold Episode [4].
Rainfall is more predominant in the atmosphere above warm waters, which is why the east Pacific is therefore drier under the normal cold
current. The cool waters are considered to be within fifty meters from the surface of the sea [5]. At the onset of El Nio, the trade winds cool
down in the western and the central Pacific, leading to a depression of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific and its elevation in the west. This
then reduces upwelling which normally cools the surface and consequently reduces the supply of nutrient rich water to the euphotic regions. As a
result, a rise in the level of temperature is experienced. Scientists have been able to reach the stage where they can make rough estimates of their
occurrences. Not all of these phenomena are the same, and the reaction of the atmosphere is not always the same, or rather the same atmospheric
conditions are not always present each time an El Nio or La Nia is experienced [6].
The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of La Nia and El Nio on the UAE rainfall, with intensive focus on the rainfall
fluctuations of the UAE. Since this the first study on the relationship between ENSO and UAE rainfall, in this study, several procedures were
used, including the study of El Nio and La Nia and the impact it has on the global scale; the investigation of the climate, with respect to the
fluctuation of the rainfall over the UAE; an exploration of the suitable drought indices for UAE rainfall; and finally, a study of the correlation
between the phenomena that have been mentioned above and the consequences on the climate over the UAE with respect to rainfall. More
specifically, this research focuses on the UAE through conducting analysis on the historical data (rainfall) for at least the past thirty-three years.
It is very important that this will lead to the exploration of the relationships between El Nio and La Nia and the rainfall in UAE.

2.

El Nio and La Nia

El Nio and La Nia are natural phenomena of the climatic system. They originate from the names of periodic development of warm waters over
the oceans originally over the tropical South American oceans and at the Equator. Today, they describe the whole El Nio Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), which is the climatic fluctuation occurring when the oceans warm up. La Nia thus refers to the opposite extremes of the ENSO
phenomenon.

Mohamed AlEbri *, Hasan Arman, Abdeltawab Shalaby

General Scientific Researches Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016.

La Nia is a phenomenon that is usually experienced in the oceans, and refers to the irregular cooling of sea surface temperatures, from the
coasts of Latin America to the central Pacific. El Nio refers to the disruption of the oceanic atmosphere relationship along the tropical Pacific.
These phenomena also influence jet stream locations and can affect the weather patterns around the world. Some of the consequences that are
brought about by these two phenomena are increased rainfall amounts and severe drought across the different regions that they influence [7].
El Nio and La Nia are the key reasons of variability in climate and weather for different regions across the world. La Nia and El Nio have a
cyclic alternation, called the ENSO cycle. When El Nio gives way to La Nia, this transition is often very fast compared to the reverse
transition [8]. The episodes of El Nio occur during the spring season on the northern hemisphere every three to five years, and lasts between
nine and twelve months. In contrast, La Nia usually lasts between one and three years, but there is variability in the duration as well as their
development and intensity [9]. When both of these two are not experienced, this period is referred to as ENSO neutral.
The indications of the formation of an El Nio are when warm waters build along the equator in the eastern Pacific. The surface of the sea
warms the atmosphere directly above it, allowing moisture to rise and develop into precipitation. The warm waters are usually about five to
seven degrees above average. La Nia, on the other hand, is created by the cool waters surface in the equatorial eastern Pacific. La Nia impacts
are usually directly opposite to the impacts of El Nio. The atmosphere directly above the cool water surface cools down, and thus less
evaporation of water is experienced. The cool and dry air is dense, thus does not rise to form rainfall and storms. The resulting effects do not
form as much rainfall over the pacific. This then results in dry conditions experienced in the south eastern parts of the United States and Latin
America.
La Nia and El Nio show the extreme ends of a cycle in the Pacific. This cycle is not so complicated, but analysis of the time series shows that
the cycle oscillates with an interval of three to seven years. La Nia follows El Nio almost immediately. El Nio is developed by the trade
winds, particularly when those winds are weaker than normal, whereas La Nia occurs when these winds are stronger than normal and are at the
peak in the December months.
Additionally, El Nio and La Nia or ENSO is referred to changing temperatures of the ocean surfaces in the tropical Pacific regions leads to
rise a huge amount of water vapour in the atmosphere and that affect weather patterns aloft such as the jet streams and the Rossby waves. A jet
stream refers to a current of rapidly moving air, usually some thousand metres wide and long; however, it is relatively thin. Jet streams certainly
get affected hugely by the formation of El Nio and La Nia [10]. The Rossby Waves are large scale winds of jet streams that circulate the globe
in series of waves. These weather patterns changes certainly have a lot of effect on UAE as they move from west to east toward the Arabian
Peninsula, especially in terms of rain. When El Nio occurs, it results in increased precipitation. This is due to the polar jet streams that moved
further south causing increased storms. Generally, the precipitations increase in the area where the jet streams are stronger. To date, the
occurrence of the jet streams has been used to indicate the possibility of the weather activities.
3.1 Oceanic Nio Index (ONI)
Meteorologists and scientists use the ONI to measure the departure of the conditions from the normal sea surface temperatures. This is a standard
method of measuring El Nio episodes, forecasting, and estimating the weather. The occurrence of El Nio can be expected by observing the
increase in sea surface temperatures by more than 0.5 oC, for some three or more months.
The Oceanic Nio Index (ONI) simply refers to the departure from the mean effects or the observed anomaly. In analyzing the ONI, different
30-year periods are used as the basis and are then used to calculate anomalies; normally the base period is updated every five years. However, in
real-time computation of these statistics, the base period will be applied to find the real departure from the mean. Additionally, the Climate
Prediction Centre (CPC) generates the base year, still using the 30 years lapse, after every five years. After the five-year period of updating the
ONI, the ONI value changes slightly due to the inclusion of the recently collected data. This is of advantage because the classification of La Nia
and El Nio will remain more or less fixed over the historical period. Additionally, the adjustments that may happen in the future may not affect
the past classification of episodes.
The improvement of ONI is essential regarding its extensive use in various research and weather functions. Interpreting ONI values should be
cautiously done as its development was originally for research purposes. The negative figures of ONI indicate a cold phase, which shows the
possibilities of an occurrence of La Nia; the positive ONI figures indicate the presence of a warm phase, representing El Nio.
One of the most important things to understand is how to identify the phase of the ENSO. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), Climate Prediction Centre also uses the average thirty year sea surface temperature for the tropical Pacific. The
differences in the observations from the average can be used to indicate the phase of ENSO. A monthly calculation is helpful to obtain the
monthly variability; this is averaged with the previous monthly values and compared to the average SST.
The Oceanic Nio Index is a tool used by NOAA for identifying El Nio and La Nia events. The Pacific Ocean has been divided into four
regions; refer to Figure 1. These regions are Nio 1+2, Nio 3, Nio 3.4, and Nio 4. The Nio 3.4 index is around 0.5 and above. This means
that if El Nio conditions exist, that the SST in the Nio 3.4 region is more than 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average. When it is less than 0.5, then La Nia effects have occurred, and indicates then that the SST is at least cooler than average. If the reading is between 0.5 and -0.5,
then the ENSO is considered neutral [11].
As an example, the episodes of El Nio of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 are the most intense recorded in the twentieth century; particularly the
latter one which lasted for about a year. During these periods the sea temperatures in the equatorial regions and eastern tropical pacific were 5 to
10 C above average. The ONI was the highest recorded and the surface temperatures and the weather patterns were similar. Severe droughts hit
Australia, whereas Tahiti experienced severe typhoons and Chile suffered a long period of rains and increased flooding. The 1997-1998, resulted
in increased drought in Brazil, Malaysia, and Indonesia, while Peru received increased rainfalls along the coast. [12]

3.

Effective Drought Index (EDI)

Effective Drought Index (EDI) is a tool used for assessing drought. It is the summation of the value of precipitation taken on a daily or monthly
basis, with respect to time. It is the function of precipitation of the previous and the current days. The period of calculation of the EDI may vary,
but it is normally set to 365 days for simplicity. The main idea behind discussing the objectives of EDI is to enable monitoring the possible
excess and shortage of rainfall during the warm and cold seasons, respectively. In computing the EDI, the following formula was used:
=
=
=

[(

) ]

(1)
(2)

(3)

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Rainfall
General Scientific Researches Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016.

Where EPi (Effective Precipitation) represents the suitable accumulations of precipitation, Pm is the daily precipitation level representing the
days preceding a particular date, and i in equation (1) begins from 365; making EP become the valid accumulation of precipitation, 365 days
from a specific date. Equation (2) in the formula is a representation of the departure of EP from MEP (Mean Effective Precipitation). The SD is
the standard deviation. If DEP (Deviation Effective Precipitation) is found to be negative for two successive days, i becomes 366 (= 365 + 2
1) and the process of calculation starts again [13]. This implies that the drying consequence on soil during a drought that may have occurred
years ago is shown in the EDI [14].
The UAE monthly rainfall data from 1980 - 2013 was ingested by an EDI software application and provided thirty-two years of indices from
1981 -2013. The reason for missing the first year is, as afore-mentioned, the EDI takes into account the accumulated precipitation; that is 365
days (one previous year).
For both climatological and meteorological calculation of drought index (DI), the following summarizes the ranges that define the extent of
wetness and dryness: Extreme drought < -2.0 < Severe drought < -1.5 < moderate drought < -1.0 =< Near normal - < 0 Extreme wet > 2.0 >
Severe wet > 1.5 > moderate wet > 1.0 >= near normal + >0 EDI = 0 Normal. [15]

4.

Data Analysis and Result

Drought indices are used most frequently in determining the frequency of meteorological drought. This measurement is very simple and easy to
use. EDI (Effective Drought Index) is considered a standardized index used to assess the drought severity. The daily or monthly time
measurements make the EDI unlike most of the other indices, as the measurement uses precipitation as the only data variable and excludes other
meteorological statistics. This makes it better for application purposes due to the availability of such data, and for extensive periods, which is
especially suitable for the UAE. EDI can be calculated using a range of -2 to 2, with a threshold that can be used to measure wetness, from
extremely wet to extremely dry conditions. If the EDI is less than -2, the indication may be harsh dry conditions, if EDI is between -1.99 and 1.5, then a severe drought is projected, and an EDI between -1.49 and -1 indicates moderate drought. Conditions that are more or less near
normal are shown by an EDI between -0.99 and 0.99. In this study, the total monthly rainfall data is being used. The study investigates the
fluctuation of rain over thirty-three years using Effective Drought Index (EDI).
4.1 Statistical Description of Data
Descriptive statistics are used in the analysis of the data concerning UAE weather and climate change. The statistics are used to describe the
basic features of the data. It is especially used in summarizing simple statistics regarding the parameter samples. In this study, together with the
graphic analysis, they form the essential basis of every quantitative data analysis. Descriptive statistics in this paper simply describes what is or
what the data reveals.
The rainfall is basically calculated by adding up all the values of all weather stations of each month. For instance, the total rainfall for the month
of January was calculated by summing up the rain values recorded throughout the month from all the weather stations in the UAE.
Furthermore, indices for classification of the conditions of UAE with respect to the amount of rainfall recorded at all stations were also analyzed
using EDI software to help in the categorization of these thirty-three years as whether they are severe drought, drought, extremely wet or
otherwise as well as investigating the correlation between the El Nio/La Nia effect and the intensity of the rainfall over UAE. Thus in
summary, this particular study uses mainly quantitative data that are analyzed by SPSS too.
The data that was collected are quantitative and ensured the SPSS descriptive traits are applied well. The application covered whole the UAE to
ensure that the data collected were representative and homogeneous. The study was done in such a manner that the climatic conditions that
affected all parts in the country were analyzed and interpreted. In the analysis, some years receive greater amounts of rainfall, or experience
drought conditions, in different seasons. The zonal climatic changes are taken into consideration for purposes of achieving homogeneity and
representativeness of data [16]. An instance is the comparison between UAE EDI index (rainfall) and Nio 3.4 index events.
The UAE rainfall EDI index and Nio 3.4 index both from 1981 to 2013 were inputted into the SPSS software in order to obtain appropriate
statistical descriptive analysis that would lead to understand the correlation of the data samples, as shown in Table 1, and support the output of
analysis statistically. As a result, the P-value was less than 0.05 (Sig=0.000). Therefore, there is a strong relationship between UAE rainfall EDI
index and Nio 3.4 index.
Up to 393 variables were sampled and evaluated in order to determine whether the number of Nio 3.4 indexes were equal to the number of
UAE rainfall EDI indexes. The data were analyzed using chi square Goodness of fit test as shown in Table 2.
When El Nio and La Nia occur, it takes time to affect other distant parts of the world such as the UAE. The level of significance as shown in
Table 2 shows a high significant correlation between the two figures (Nio 3.4 indexes and UAE rainfall EDI indexes).
4.2 Analysis
There are 98 weather stations spread throughout the UAE which were used in this study. Rainfall data were collected from these weather
stations as shown in Figure 2. The amounts were recorded every day of the month, throughout the year, from Jan 1980 to Sep 2013, in order to
detect and study any relation between El Nio and La Nia Years and UAE precipitation. As such, the rainfall data were analysed intensely.
Effective Drought Index (EDI) was computed for all weather stations with 33 years of data. Note that the Effective Drought Index (EDI) is a
Climatological/Meteorological drought index which measures drought severity and the monthly Nio 3.4 index (which is used to calculate the
ONI values) uses at least 30 year periods. These are presented in Table 3.
Comparing the computed UAE rainfall EDI with Nio 3.4 values, the drought index calculated from the rainfall data indicated that in Jan 1981,
the index was -0.98. After comparing this with the EDI drought indices classification, UAE was classified as near normal. The March 1982
rainfall data produced an index of 2.73. This indicated that in this month of that year, the country was extreme wet. In Dec 1982, the index was
1.59, classifying the country as severe wet. In April, May, and June 1984, the generated indices were -1.04, -1.04, and -1.07 respectively; they
were thus classified as moderate drought. In Sept, October, November and December 2009, the indices generated were 2.86, 2.04, 1.36 and 2.51
respectively. These indices show that in the respective months of that year, the UAE was extreme wet, extreme wet, moderate wet and extreme
wet. Comparing these indices with the monthly Nio index, that is May and December 1982 and Sept, October, November and December 2009,
it has been easily seen that the amount of rainfall increased. This indicated that in those months, the country was considered to be effected by El
Nio.
Graphing the UAE rainfall EDI and Nio 3.4 indices gives a better picture representing the relationship, as shown in Figure 3. The graph shows
the two lines fluctuating in the same path with some differences in the level in some cases but, nevertheless, they all give almost the same
rhythms of oscillations. As a matter of fact, for this case, it is better to avoid day to day or month to month comparison. As aforementioned, the
occurrence of El Nio or La Nia doesnt affect UAE precipitation immediately as there is a delay in any effect due to the physical distance
involved. This means that atmosphere weather patterns such as the Jet Stream and Rossby Waves and other features take time to reach UAE. The

Mohamed AlEbri *, Hasan Arman, Abdeltawab Shalaby

General Scientific Researches Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016.

time of the effect varies and depends on the speed of the weather patterns circulation in the atmosphere, however, it was noticed that an impact
may happen within three months of the El Nio and La Nia take place.
According to the analysis, the periods that are considered wet cover at least 19.95 % of the time, with 72.02 % consider normal and 8.03 %
considered drought. These figures are additionally so significant with a p-value less than 0.05, with respect to a significance level of 95%
confidence level. Thus, there seems to be a few inconsistencies in the amount of rainfall recorded; most of these figures are statistically
significant and could represent the true value in reality.
Again, a glance at the drought indices reveal that the drought indices seem to follow a decreasing trend, showing that the UAE keeps on shifting
from the normal to arid conditions. An instance is that in January1997, the drought index was 1.19 and in January 2012 the drought index was 0.14. But, nevertheless, this trend is not necessarily set to continue along the same path, as it represented only a short period of climate of the
UAE. The future trend could be positive depending on the climate change cycles.

5.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1. The Oceanic Nio Index regions. Showing the region Nino 3.4 (5 North 5 South) (170 120 West)
that was used to do the correlation analysis [17]

Figure 2. The distribution of weather stations over UAE. The rainfall data were taken from these 98 stations.
GIS software application was used to locate the weather stations

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Rainfall
General Scientific Researches Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016.

Figure 3. Correlation between UAE EDI and Nio3.4 indices throughout 33 years. UAE Effective
Drought Index (EDI) in blue line and Nio3.4 index in red line

Table 1. Statistical correlations of UAE EDI and Nio 3.4 Indices

Rain_EDI Index

Nio 3.4 Index

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Rain_EDI Index
1
393
.314
.000
393

Nio 3.4 Index

.314
.000
393
1
393

Table 2. Chi square test result

Value
38.607
393

Linear-by-Linear Association
N of Valid Cases

df
1
--

Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)

.000
--

Table 3. Definition of the UAE EDI

Status
Weak El Nio
Moderate El Nio
Strong El Nio
Normal
Weak La Nia
Moderate La Nia
Strong La Nia

6.

Abbr.
WEl
MEl
SEl
N- / N+
WLa
MLa
SLa

Value
0.5 < Nio3.4 < 1.0
1.0 <= Nio3.4 < 1.5
Nio3.4 >= 1.5
-0.5 < Nio3.4 < 0.5
- 1.0 < Nio3.4 <= - 0.5
-1.5 < Nio3.4 <= -1.0
Nio3.4 <= -1.5

Conclusion

The UAE continues to face challenges that are related to adaptation to weather and climate change. The impact of weather in the UAE has been
linked to El Nio and La Nia. This is despite other causes of climate change as well. The action plans that have been proposed seek to achieve
three goals. There is a need to come up with a strategy of strengthening the capacity of numerical weather predictions in the meteorology agency
in the UAE. This is essential to the UAE so that the phenomena affecting the country can be predicted well ahead to a point of having a better
understanding of the potential future weather and great significance implications in the future. Additionally, identification of this strategy will
enable measures and integration of actions to adapt to change in climate in the UAE development. While this is widespread and ongoing, it will
need to expand to address the related risks associated with the weather and climate changes with respect to the global outlook, including the
UAE. Furthermore, the plan will analyze the potential occurrence of El Nio and La Nia that will be used to achieve an accurate prediction of
the effect of these phenomena on UAE rainfall.
According to the evidence shown in the statistical analysis, it is evident that the cyclical events of El Nio and La Nia vary significantly. In this
regard, the changes in the rainfall of UAE could be attributed to these phenomena. However, for some years, the cause may be different from the
two phenomena. The impact of natural variability that leads to natural changes of the weather and climate in the atmosphere, which basically
comprises of man-made causes like greenhouse gases, are partially responsible for these changes.

Mohamed AlEbri *, Hasan Arman, Abdeltawab Shalaby

10

General Scientific Researches Vol(4), No (1), March, 2016.

The comparison of the El Nio and La Nia years with other years, for instance 1995/96 and 1997/98 respectively, show a lot of difference of
intervals, and inconsistencies in the trend that would imply an El Nio and La Nia cycle. The amount of rainfall varied significantly across the
years. This shows that the UAE precipitation differs greatly from year to year. As an evidence of a related impact, the years that were considered
to have been impacted by La Nia showed low rainfall; an instance is 1981, 1984, 1989, 1999, 2005, and 2011. On the other hand, some years
showed remarkable amounts of rainfall in the UAE on the events of El Nio as shown in the analysis; an instance is 1982, 1987, 1997, 2007 and
2009 which showed rainfall that went above the average total annual rainfall.

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