Vol.

: 299
20th June,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View

Market wants uncertainties out of the way to conquer new heights

CompanyUpdate
2
We know that market does not like any kind of uncertainties. Britain is expected to have

referendum on 23rd June for giving the public verdict whether they want to remain within the
Aroundthe
Economy

3 Euro zone or not ? As per the economic experts world over , if UK opts to go out of European
Union , it will have a great fallout on the world economy, particularly the currency market will

KnowledgeCorner 3 remain highly volatile for some time. The chance of UK going in to recession is also very high if
they move out of EU. Uncertainties regarding monsoon progress are also restricting the

MutualFund
4 market. If these two events goes smoothly, the market can conquer new heights.

In Last week, two mega events have happened in the Indian Capital market. The merger of
CommodityCorner5 associate banks with State Bank Of India and merger of Max Life with HDFC. After the merger

State Bank will be one of the biggest banks in the world. The Shock absorbing capacity of SBI
ForexCorner
6 will be enhanced substantially. The Strength , the reach , CASA and the regional spread of SBI

will be much higher after the merger. The merger of MAX and HDFC has created the largest
ReportCard
7 private insurance player in India. Now the market is waiting for the GST Bill. If all these events

go positively , we can expect much upside from the current level. Some midcap stocks have
ShortTermCallStatus8 really performed well on earning front. Considering the uncertainties the market will remain
highly volatile in coming weeks. So remain cautious and have medium to long term view.

Technically, there is a strong support 8000 and strong resistance at 8300 8350 range.
Editor&Contributor
MargiShah

Kamal Jhaveri

MD- Jhaveri Securities

SpecialContributors
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

Company Update : Capital First Ltd.

Company Basics

Financial Basics

532938

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

10.00
17.2

NSE Symbol

CAPF

P/E (x) (TTM)

31.1

EQUITY (` in Cr.)

90.98

MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

149.74

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

BSE Code

181.88
1.31
8.38

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
8.37
9.91
65.2
1.43
15.09
0.00

Valuation : CAPITAL FIRST is trading at ` 558. We recommend Accumulate with target price of ` 660 , valuing

stock 30xFY18E EPS of `22.The stock currently trades at 30x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.
Company Overview

Capital First (CAPF) is the retail financing NBFC formed in 2012 as a result of a management buyout of an
existing NBFC. Post Mr. Vaidyanathan taking reigns in FY11 and revamping the business model, the wholesale
lending entity was catapulted to grow into a strong retail NBFC. CAPF lays greater thrust on retail, SME and
wholesale segments; within retail CAPF offers LAP, two-wheelers and consumer durable loans. Catering to the
underserved traditional market, CAPF has carved its own niche in the MSME and two-wheelers segment and is
poised to replicate success on the lines of Bajaj Finance in the consumer finance market.
Investment rational

Strong AUM growth with the shift towards retail assets

CFL has been able to manage AUM (assets under management) CAGR of 44% over FY11-FY15 on the back of focused strategy, strong processes, superior financing skills, strong promoter and the ability to raise funds on time.
Retail AUM posted 90% CAGR over FY11-FY15, whereas corporate
CFL emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs
CFL emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs by offering different products for their various financing needs. Capital First has a comprehensive product suite to meet the multiple financial needs of its customers.
Till date, the Company has financed more than 1.4 million customers, including more than 6,00,000 MSMEs.
The Company provides finance to its customers with the help of contemporary scoring solutions and
sophisticated technology. The Company, through its extensive reach, provides essential debt capital to MSMEs in
a quick, affordable and convenient manner.
Diversified loan mix translating into robust AUMs
According to the needs of the customers, CAPF has carved its own niche in the under-presented traditional
market through its extensive reach. With greater focus on MSME, two wheelers and customer finance segment
CAPF caters to the under-served market characterized.
- 2-

Vol.:
299
20th June,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

On the macro front, data released by government on 14 June 2016 showed that the inflation based on wholesale price
index (WPI) rose 0.79% in May, after rising 0.34% in April. Meanwhile, March WPI inflation has been revised lower to
negative 0.45% from negative 0.85% as reported earlier.
Meanwhile, data released by the government on 13 June 2016 showed that the all-India general consumer prices index
(CPI) inflation increased to 21-months high of 5.76% in May 2016, recording rise for second straight month. The CPI
inflation had stood at 5.47% in April 2016.
The US Federal Reserve on 15 June 2016 left interest rates unchanged and backed off an aggressive stance on future rate
hikes.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Investors will closely watch the progress of monsoon rains. As per reports, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), from 1 June to 15 June 2016, the country has received overall 43.6 mm of rainfall as compared to normal level
of 55.7 mm, an overall deficiency of 22%.

Meanwhile, Mahanagar Gas is coming up with an initial public offer (IPO) of 2.46 crore shares through a 100% book
building process. The IPO will open for subscription on Tuesday, 21 June 2016 and will close on Thursday, 23 June 2016.
The price band for the issue has been fixed at Rs 380 to Rs 421.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan's speech in New York is scheduled on Thursday, 23 June 2016. The
Markit flash Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMIs) for June, indicating activity of the manufacturing sector
for that month will be released on Thursday, 23 June 2016.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Tue-Thu : Mahanagar Gas Ltd. IPO

Knowledge Corner :
Pass-Through Security

A pool of fixed-income securities backed by a package of assets. A servicing intermediary collects the monthly payments from issuers,
and, after deducting a fee, remits or passes them through to the holders of the pass-through security. It is also known as a
"pass-through certificate" or "pay-through security."

Pass-through securities are much like bonds. Most offer semi-annual or monthly income, and this payment frequency enhances the
compounding effects of reinvestment.

- 3-

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name
Franklin India Balanced Fund

AMC

Franklin Templeton Asset Management India

Private Ltd

Type

Equity-oriented

Category

Open-ended and Hybrid

Launch Date

December 1999

Fund Manager

Sachin Padwal-Desai & Umesh Sharma

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 1029.2 crore as on May 31, 2016

History
NAV (Rs)

2013

2014

2015

Financial

23.15

Automobile

7.58

Technology

6.46

Healthcare

5.85

Diversified

4.75

Energy

3.81

Services

3.61

Communication

3.58

Engineering

2.38

Chemicals

2.08

2016

58.48

86.00

90.16

94.24

6.64

47.05

4.85

4.53

0.38

20.28

7.03

Rank (Fund/Category)

14/32

16/57

52 Week High (Rs)

58.51

52 Week Low (Rs)

Total Return (%)

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

12.02

Sharpe Ratio

1.07

1.63

Beta

0.92

22/65

9/82

R-Squared
Alpha

0.89
8.23

86.26

94.03

49.55

57.04

85.34

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

202.27

307.10

759.92

Expense Ratio (%)

2.73

2.90

2.75

+/- VR Balanced

848.42
-

Composition (%)
Equity

68.58

Debt

29.74

Cash

1.68

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth

Blend

Value

Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Large

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, bullion prices gained where gold settled with around 1.72% gains and silver by around 0.72% supported by a softer dollar
and cautious interest rate comments by a voting U.S. Federal Reserve policy member, and was headed for a third week of gains. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank's "dot plot" of projected interest rate policy "appears to be too steep." "Fed funds futures markets do not seem
to believe it. They are priced for a much shallower pace of increases," Bullard said, arguing that the central bank may need to only increase rates once
between now and the end of 2018. Traders said that market dealings could be volatile next week ahead of the June 23 referendum when Britain will
vote on whether to remain in the European Union or to leave. The Bank of England escalated its warnings about fallout from the vote, saying it could
harm the global economy and that sterling looked increasingly likely to weaken further if "Leave" wins. INTL FCStone Inc has hiked the amount of cash
customers have to deposit with them to trade gold, silver and sterling futures, a relatively rare step that shows financial firms are bracing for volatile
trading ahead of Britain's vote on Europe. Speculative investors are holding their biggest bullish position in gold futures in nearly five years, data on
Friday showed. Based on CME's initial margins, an INTL FCStone customer would have to fork out a whopping $9,900 to trade one contract of gold and
$10,560 for one lot of silver. One lot equates to 100 ounces of gold, worth about $130,000, and 5,000 ounces of silver, worth $87,000. Asian physical
gold demand remained subdued this week as the metal rallied to its highest in nearly two years, with discounts in India widening till $17-$18 against
LBMA the most in 3-1/2 months as consumers shied away from making new purchases. Reflecting renewed optimism towards gold, holdings in SPDR
Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to 902.53 tonnes on Thursday, the highest since October 2013. Meanwhile
Jewelers are maintaining thin inventory due to weak retail demand. They will replenish inventory just before the start of the festival season in August.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 31000 SL 31800 TGT 30200-29600. SELL SILVER @ 41900 SL 42800 TGT 40200

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, base metals prices ended with mixed node where aluminium prices gained by around 2.81% followed by around 1.49
percent and over one percent gains in aluminium whereas other prices ended with losses Base metals prices steadied on Friday as market worries over
a potential British exit from the European Union receded and the dollar eased. Zinc prices dropped the most after a surge in inventories and risk aversion will dominate the market before the referendum in the UK. The LME released data showed a surge of 19,750 tonnes arriving at LME warehouses
in New Orleans. While many investors are bullish about zinc because of potential shortages after the closure of major mines, that there are also large
amounts of hidden stocks that are not stored in LME-registered depots. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong grew 9,700 to
330,200 tonnes on weekly basis. Zinc stocks climbed across the three regions due to soft consumption and ample supplies. Downstream buyers slowed
purchases with the nearing of low-demand season and zinc prices reaching 16,000 yuan per tonne. Copper recovered from lows along with other markets, including European shares and oil, which climbed after a suspension of campaigning for Britain's EU membership vote next week following the
killing of a pro-"Remain" politician. Increasing the stockpiles of China, the world's top consumer of copper and other metals, could result in import demand remaining relatively strong despite usual seasonal weakness. China's copper imports jumped 19.4 percent from a year ago in May to 430,000
tonnes. The mood was cautious after industry sources said that copper stocks held in London Metal Exchange warehouses in Asia are set to jump by
about 50 percent in the next month as metal is shifted out or diverted away from top consumer China. Nickel also seen supported after holders of LME
nickel inventories gave shipment notices for 10,722 tonnes, reducing availability. Nickel is outperforming the complex aided by the large stock draw.
Tsingshan put online its 1 million-tpy stainless steel project in Indonesia recently, and demand for nickel will likely grow, and this will serve a favorable
factor for nickel market. The global refined nickel market deficit widened to 10,100 tonnes in April this year, in comparison with the previous month, in
accordance with the latest statistics released by the International nickel Study Group (INSG).
RECOMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 303 SL 296 TGT 316. BUY ZINC @ 130 SL 126 TGT 140. BUY NICKEL @ 595 SL 580 TGT 640. BUY
ALUMINIUM @ 106 SL 104 TGT 110.BUY LEAD @ 113 SL 110 TGT 118

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL : Crudeoil last week dropped by over 3% on fears of a possible exit of the UK from the European Union continued to spook oil traders,
but prices recovered around 2 percent gains on Friday. Optimism about supply outages was replaced by worries that global demand might take a hit if
Britain decides to leave the European Union. Oversupply concerns crept back into the minds of oil traders this week as well. Oil prices have risen 80%90% over the last five months as global production outages spiked. Commercial crude inventories continued to decline, a regular update from the US
EIA showed. The data also showed oil production contracted again last week, reversing what has been the first increase in three months, seen in the
previous seven days. Oil services firm Baker Hughes said in its weekly rig count report that U.S. oil rigs last week rose by nine to 337 for the week ending on June 10. It marked the third straight of weekly increases, the longest since last August. At the same time, the gas rig count inched up by one last
week to 87, boosting the overall count by 10 to 424. The overall rig count is still down by 433 in comparison with the total from the same week last year.
Hedge funds and other big speculators cut their bullish bets on U.S. crude to the lowest in two months, trade data showed, as a resurgent dollar challenged oil bulls' attempts to keep the market above $50 a barrel. Natural gas prices gained by 2 percent as warm weather forecasts keep stoking expectations for strong demand this summer. Baker Hughes Inc., which tracks the data, said the nations gasrig count rose by one in the past week to 86, but
that is still near an alltime low. That compared with builds of 65 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 89 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 86
billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.041 trillion cubic feet, 20.8% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 23.2% above the
five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, updated weather forecasting models continued to show above-normal temperatures across most
parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 3200 SL 3080 TGT 3400. BUY NATURAL GAS @ 170 SL 162 TGT 185

- 5-

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee recouped some of its losses

on talk that the Reserve Bank of India sold
dollars through public sector banks to stem the
currencys fall.

The home currency was trading at 67.39 per

dollar, down 0.45% from its previous close of
67.09. In morning trading, the local currency fell
as much as 0.9% to touch a low of 67.69 a
dollara level last seen on 24 May.

The dollar index, which measures the US

currencys strength against major currencies,
was trading at 93.598, down 0.65% from its
previous close of 94.206.

Market Eye Week ahead :

US dollar index is trading at 93.66 , depreciating in todays session as markets reacted to a opinion polls indicating a lead
for the remain camp in the upcoming Brexit referendum. Economic data is unlikely to have any significant impact on the
days action as Brexit continues to remain the key driver. Dr Rajans exit may create significant depreciation in rupee
seeing capital outflows in near term. Key resistances are seen at 67.35, 67.51, 67.81, 68.05 (crossover of 20D, 30D and
55D EMA) and 68.35 (March 1, 2016 high) respectively. On the other side, initial supports are seen at 67.35, 67.06,
66.91, 66.75, 66.42(May 01, 2016 low), 66.32 (November 2015 low).

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.86

67.01

67.24

67.39

67.62

67.46

67.06

67.17

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

75.01

75.36

75.73

76.08

76.45

76.11

75.39

75.50

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

94.58

95.27

95.79

96.48

97.00

96.31

95.10

95.96

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

62.27

63.34

64.15

65.22

66.03

64.95

63.07

64.42

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 8102.25, registered a low at 8063.89 and moved up to 8213.20. Nifty finally closed the
week at 8170.20 thereby showed a negligible rise of 0.15 points on week to week basis. Traders can buy on breakout
and close above 8336 with low of the week as the stop loss or 8134 whichever is lower. Traders long and holding the
same can maintain the stop loss at 8063. Resistance will be at 8228-8336. Another breakout and close above 8336 is
necessary in time to come to move towards 8498-864 and 8849-9119.Correction to 7992-7890 can be used for buying
with a stop loss of 7678.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Status

Capital First

06/06/2016

552

558

660

1%

Accumulate

Wonderla Holidays

25/04/2016

387

395

498

2%

Accumulate

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

167

179

21%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

173

181

30%

Buy

MT Educare

01/02/2016

164

171

230

4%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

352

550

-17%

Buy

AYM Syntax

23/11/2015

121

98

223

-19%

Buy

Natco Pharma

02/11/2015

509

500

636

-2%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1267

1374

11%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

274

368

17%

Buy

20/07/2015

190

211

255

11%

Buy

04/05/2015

298

282

430

-6%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

164

251

8%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

205

368

-19%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

286

337

29%

Buy

M&M

12/01/2015

1238

1351

1452

9%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

364

346

33%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

07/07/2014

39

38

45

-2%

Buy

Adani Port

05/07/2014

280

207

347

-26%

Accumulate

Stocks

Infinite Computer
Sol.
Sadbhav
Engineering Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

5May16

PETRONET

BUY

275

281

6May16

UPL

BUY

590

600

9May16

SRTRANSFIN BUY

1040

10May16

HDFC

BUY

11May16

JUSTDIAL

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

278.00 288.00

266

TA

5.1

595.00 615.00

573

TA

4.8

1060 1050.00 1085

1005

TA

3.4

1195

1220 1207.50 1245

1165

SL

3.5

SELL

700

720

710.00 675.00

750

SL

4.2

MCDOWELL BUY

2670

2730 2700.00 2800.00

2600

SL

3.7

SELL

1515

1545 1530.00 1475.00

1560

SL

2.3

ASIANPAINT BUY

934

952

943.00

972

905

TA

4.8

449.00

12May16

13May16

16May16

17May16

ZEEL

BUY

444

454

475

430

EXPIRE

0.0

10

18May16

GRASIM

BUY

4250

4350 4300.00 4450

4180

TA

3.4

11

19May16

CASTROLIND SELL

380

388

384.00

399

TA

3.7

12

20May16

BANKBARODA SELL

135

138

136.50 129.00

142

TA

5.4

13

23May16

69

70.5

69.75

65

72.8

SL

4.3

14

24May16

907.50

15

AJANTA
PHARMA

ADANIENT

SELL

370

895

920

855

945

TA

4.2

25May16

WOCK
SELL
PHARMA
SRTRANSFIN BUY

1145

1170 1157.50 1220

1110

TA

4.1

16

26May16

TATAMTRDVR BUY

267

273

270.00

285

258

TA

4.4

17

30May16

TATACHEM

BUY

428

436

432.00

445

416

EXPIRE

0.0

18

31May16

HEROMO
TOCO

BUY

3050

3110 3080.00 3180

2990

TA

3.5

19

1Jun16

SBIN

BUY

200

206

214

192

TA

4.4

20

2Jun16

ACC

BUY

1535

1575 1555.00 1600

1505

EXPIRE

0.0

21

3Jun16

YESBANK

BUY

1035

1065 1050.00 1110.00

1005

TA

3.3

22

6Jun16

TATAMOTORS BUY

451

461

456.00

482

438

TA

5.7

23

7Jun16

105

109

107.00

114

103

TA

6.2

- 7-

HINDALCO

BUY

203.00

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

BUY/
SELL

Sr.
No.

DATE

24

8Jun16

25

9Jun16

SIEMENS

26

10Jun16

27

STOCK

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

3310

3370 3340.00 3520

3240

OPEN

0.0

BUY

1251

1275 1263.00 1330

1225

OPEN

0.0

SIEMENS

BUY

1240

1265 1252.50 1330.00

1200

OPEN

0.0

13Jun16

LUPIN

SELL

1430

1460 1445.00 1400.00

1370

OPEN

0.0

28

14Jun16

YESBANK

BUY

1054

1080 1067.00 1130

1030

OPEN

0.0

29

15Jun16

VOLTAS

BUY

327

333

340

318

OPEN

0.0

30

16Jun16

HDFCBANK

BUY

1150

1170 1160.00 1220

1135

OPEN

0.0

31

17Jun16

VEDL

BUY

121

124

118

OPEN

0.0

ULTRACEMCO BUY

RANGE

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

15

65.21

SL+EXIT

34.78

TOTAL

23

100

330.00

122.50

126

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 299
20th June,2016