M

E M O R A N D U M

To:
Interested Parties
From: Jill Normington
Date: June 23, 2016

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Second
Congressional District of Maine. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted June 6-9,
2016. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Party Registration: 36% Republican, 35% Democrat,
29% Independent.

In the rematch contest for the Second Congressional District of Maine, Democratic challenger Emily Cain is tied with
incumbent Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin, 45%-45%.

45%

45%

10%
Cain

Poliquin

Undecided

In this closely divided district, which is nearly even between registered Republicans and Democrats (36%-35%,
respectively), Independent voters (29%) will be the decisive element. Among this critical bloc, Cain holds a commanding
lead, 53%-31%. Moreover, Cain leads 49%-41% in the Bangor media market. She leads among women 50%-40%. Cain
also wins voters age 60 and older, 52%-39%.

Not only is the race a dead heat, but Congressman Poliquin is disliked. He is burdened by an overall favorable rating of
just 30%-35%.
o He is ten points underwater among Independents, 26%-36%.
o He is net negative among both men and women, 30%-36% and 30%-35% respectively.
o Voters in the Bangor media market rate him even lower at 28%-39%.

Being disliked by so many limits Poliquins ability to grow his vote. His negative perceptions are driven by the fact that a
plurality of voters (41%) already believes that Congressman Poliquin looks out for himself rather than the people and
that he cares mostly about the special interests (41%) rather than caring about serving the people. Poliquins finger in
the wind style regarding the Ex-Im Bank and TPP as well as his blatant flip-flop on discrimination in government
contracting have done him no favors.

Emily Cain is well positioned to take advantage of the weakness of Congressman Poliquin and win this seat and these poll
results are another sign of the momentum of her campaign. Cain has earned key endorsements from over 400
community leaders and elected officials, along with more than 40 local, state, and national organizations. She has raised
over $1.4 million from more than 7,500 donorsnearly three times as much from five times as many donors in the same
period last cyclemaking her the best-funded Democratic challenger in Maine history. On top of that, Cain outraised
Poliquin in the first two reporting periods of 2016, both in total amount and number of individual donors, and has
amassed a grassroots fundraising base.

1050 17TH STREET NW SUITE 444 WASHINGTON, DC 20036 JILL@NORMINGTONPETTS.COM