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INTRODUCTION TO FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the
well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the
goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At the company
level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management,
business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination
of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy,
fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future
growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines
economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and
forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental
analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will
ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the
random walkers and believe that markets are weak form efficient.
By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information,
fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.
Value Spotting:
Sound fundamental analysis will help identify companies that represent good
value. Some of the most legendary investors think long-term and value. Graham and
Dodd, Warren Buffett and John Neff are seen as the champions of value investing.
Fundamental analysis can help uncover companies with valuable assets, a strong
balance sheet, stable earnings and staying power
WEAKNESS
Time Constraints:
Fundamental analysis may offer excellent insights, but it can be extraordinarily
time consuming. Time-consuming models often produce valuations that are
contradictory to the current price.
Industry/Company Specific:
Valuation techniques vary depending on the industry group and specifics of each
company. For this reason, a different technique and model is required for different
industries and different companies. This can get quite time consuming and limit the
amount of research that can be performed.
Subjectivity:
Fair value is based on assumptions. Any changes to growth or multiplier
assumptions can greatly alter the ultimate valuation. Fundamental analysts are
generally aware of this and use sensitivity analysis to present a base-case valuation, a
best-case valuation and a worst-case valuation. However, even on a worst case, most
models are almost always bullish, the only question is how much so.
Analyst Bias:
The majority of the information that goes into the analysis comes from the
company itself. Companies employ investor relations managers specifically to handle
the analyst community and release information.
Financial ratios are tools for interpreting financial statements to provide a basis for
valuing securities and appraising financial and management performance.
A good financial analyst will build in financial ratio calculations extensively in a financial
modeling exercise to enable robust analysis. Financial ratios allow a financial analyst to:
Standardize information from financial statements across multiple financial years to
allow comparison of a firms performance over time in a financial model.
Standardize information from financial statements from different companies to allow
apples to apples comparison between firms of differing size in a financial model.
Measure key relationships by relating inputs (costs) with outputs (benefits) and
facilitates comparison of these relationships over time and across firms in a financial
model.
In general, there are 4 kinds of financial ratios that a financial analyst will use most
frequently, these are:
Performance ratios
Working capital ratios
Liquidity ratios
Solvency ratios
These 4 financial ratios allow a good financial analyst to quickly and efficiently address
the following questions or concerns:
Performance ratios
What return is the company making on its capital investment?
What are its profit margins?
Liquidity ratios
Can the company continue to pay its liabilities and debts?
2.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The economic analysis aims at determining if the economic climate is conclusive
and is capable of encouraging the growth of business sector, especially the capital
market. When the economy expands, most industry groups and companies are
expected to benefit and grow. When the economy declines, most sectors and
companies usually face survival problems. Hence, to predict share prices, an
investor has to spend time exploring the forces operating in overall economy.
Exploring the global economy is essential in an international investment setting. The
selection of country for investment has to focus itself to examination of a national
economic scenario. It is important to predict the direction of the national economy
because economic activity affects corporate profits, not necessarily through tax
policies but also through foreign policies and administrative procedures.
2) Inflation
3) Interest rate
Interest rate is the price of credit. It is the percentage fee received or paid by
individual or organization when they lend and borrow money. In general, increases in
interest rate, whether caused by inflation, government policy, rising risk premium, or
other factors, will lead to reduced borrowing and economic slowdown.
4) International influences
Rapid growth in overseas market can create surges in demand for exports,
leading to growth in export sensitive industries and overall GDP. In contrast, the
erection of trade barriers, quotas, currency restrictions can hinder the free flow of
currency, goods, and services, and harm the export sector of an economy.
5) Fiscal policy
The fiscal policy of the government involves the collection and spending of
revenue. In particular, fiscal policy refers to the efforts by the government to
stimulate the economic directly, through spending.
3.INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
An industry analysis helps inform business managers about the viability of their current
strategy and on where to focus a business among its competitors in an industry. The
analysis examines factors such as competition and the external business environment,
substitute products, management preferences, buyers and suppliers. Industry analysis
involves reviewing the economic, political and market factors that influence the way the
industry develops. Major factors can include the power wielded by suppliers and buyers,
the condition of competitors. And the likelihood of new market entrants.
INDUSTRY PROFILE:
Indias real estate market is expected to reach US$ 180 billion by 2020 from US$ 93.8
billion in 2014. Emergence of nuclear families, rapid urbanisation and rising household
income are likely to remain the key drivers for growth in all spheres of real estate,
including residential, commercial and retail.
Real estate is currently the fourth-largest sector in the country in terms of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) inflows. Total FDI in the construction development sector during April
2000May 2015 stood at around US$ 24.07 billion.
The Government of India has been supportive to the real estate sector. In August 2015,
the Union Cabinet approved 100 Smart City Projects in India. The Government has also
raised FDI limits for townships and settlements development projects to 100 per cent.
Real estate projects within the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) are also permitted 100 per
cent FDI. In Union Budget 2015-16, the government allocated US$ 3.72 billion for
housing and urban development. The government has also released draft guidelines for
investments by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in non-residential segment.
MARKET SIZE
The Indian real estate market size is expected to touch US$ 180 billion by 2020. The
housing sector alone contributes 5-6 per cent to the country's gross domestic product
(GDP). Also, in the period FY08-20, the market size of this sector is expected to
increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2 per cent. Retail, hospitality
and commercial real estate are also growing significantly, providing the much-needed
infrastructure for India's growing needs.
Real estate has emerged as the second most active sector, raising US$ 1.2 billion from
private equity (PE) investors in the last 10 months.
Foreign investors have bought tenanted office space worth over US$ 2 billion in India in
2014, a four-fold rise compared to the previous year, in order to increase their rentyielding commercial assets in Asia's third largest economy.
According to a study by Knight Frank, Mumbai is the best city in India for commercial
real estate investment, with returns of 12-19 per cent likely in the next five years,
followed by Bengaluru and Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR). Also, Delhi-NCR was
the biggest office market in India with 110 million sq ft, out of which 88 million sq ft were
occupied. Sectors such as IT and ITeS, retail, consulting and e-commerce have
registered high demand for office space in recent times.
Delhis Central Business District (CBD) of Connaught Place has been ranked as the
sixth most expensive prime office market in the world with occupancy costs at US$ 160
per sq ft per annum, according to a survey by CBRE.
COMPETITOR ANALYSIS:
DLF Company
Lodha Group
The Group is currently developing in excess of 35 million sq.ft. of real estate, with
over 30 projects in and around Mumbai.
It was the first Indian real estate company to introduce a Customer Rewards
Program
It was also the first to introduce LEED certification for commercial projects
In 2008 the group received Rs. 1,700 Cr. worth of funding from a consortium of
investors led by Deutsche Bank making it one of the largest FDI deals in the
history of Indian Real Estate
The group won the Green GOOD DESIGN Award 2012 for its iconic project
World One
4.COMPANY ANALYSIS
Analysis of the company consists of measuring its performance and ascertaining the
cause of this performance. When some companies have done well irrespective of
economic or industry failure, this implies that there are certain unique characteristics for
this particular company that had made it a success. The identification of these
characteristics, whether quantitative or qualitative, is referred to as company analysis.
Quantitative indicators of company analysis are the financial indicators and operational
efficiency indicators. Financial indicators are the profitability indicators and financial
position indicators analyzed through the income and balance sheet statements,
respectively, of the company. Operational indicators are capacity utilization and cost
versus sales efficiency of the company, which includes the marketing edge of the
company.
Besides the quantitative factors, qualitative factors of a company also influence
Records that outline the financial activities of a business, an individual or any other
entity. Financial statements are meant to present the financial information of the entity in
question as clearly and concisely as possible for both the entity and for readers.
Financial statements for businesses usually include: income statements, balance sheet,
statements of retained earnings and cash flows, as well as other possible statements
Ratio analysis:
ROA:
ROI:
Return on Investment is one of several commonly used approaches for evaluating the
financial consequences of business investments, decisions, or actions. ROI analysis
compares the magnitude and timing of investment gains directly with the magnitude and
timing of investment costs. A high ROI means that investment gains compare favorably
to investment costs
Of all the fundamental ratios that investors look at, one of the most important is return
on equity. It's a basic test of how effectively a company's management uses investors'
money - ROE shows whether management is growing the company's value at an
acceptable rate. ROE is calculated as:
The portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock.
Earnings per share serve as an indicator of a company's profitability.
DPS:
The sum of declared dividends for every ordinary share issued. Dividend per share
(DPS) is the total dividends paid out over an entire year (including interim dividends but
not including special dividends) divided by the number of outstanding ordinary shares
issued.
P/O RATIO:
The amount of earnings paid out in dividends to shareholders. Investors can use the
payout ratio to determine what companies are doing with their earnings
Calculated
DIVIDEND YEILD:
financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative
to its share price. In the absence of any capital gains, the dividend yield is the return on
investment for a stock. Dividend yield is calculated as follows
5.
COMPANY PROFILE
Introduction
value and commitment to time schedules are perfectly aligned with the living and
working spaces it builds.
History
The Company was setup as a partnership firm in 1989 and later incorporated under the
name Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) on 25 November 1991,by Mr. Rajesh Patil, Mr.
Naresh Patil and Mr. Milind Kolte
Projects classification
Residential or Township
Commercial or Office spaces
Retail or shop
Overview
51.7 msf. of saleable area spread across Pune, Mumbai and Bengaluru 30
ongoing and forthcoming projects with a total saleable area of 27.4 msf.
Future development potential of 24.3 msf.
Equity led growth supported by JDAs, JVs and PE partnerships (ICICI Ventures,
Portman Holdings, IL&FS)
PE investments till date are plain vanilla equity with no guaranteed IRR
structure
Expanding presence in high demand Bengaluru market 19 year presence and
strong 150 member team catering to Bengaluru market
Increased contribution expected going forward with 2.4 msf. of
ongoing/forthcoming projects
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM:
Every asset, financial as well as real, has value. The key to successfully investing
in and managing these assets lies in understanding not only what the value is, but the
sources of the value. Any asset at can be valued but some assets are easier to value
than others, and the details of the valuation will vary from case to case. Thus, the
valuation of a share of a real estate property will require different information and follow
a different format from the valuation of a publicly traded stock. What is surprising;
however, is not the difference in valuation techniques across assets, but the degree of
similarity in basic principles. There is undeniably uncertainty associated with valuation.
Often the
Uncertainty comes from the asset being valued, although the valuation model may add
to that ascertained.
A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for asset
than its worth. This statement may seem logical and obvious as financial assets are
acquired for the cash flows expected from owning them, which implies that the price that
is paid for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate.
The problem in valuation is not that there are not enough models to value an
asset; it is that there are too many. Choosing the right model to use in valuation is as
critical to arriving at a reasonable value as understanding how to use the model.
Analysts use a wide variety of models from simple to the sophisticated. These models
often make different assumptions about pricing, but they do share some common
company.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
Type of research:
Research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted.
It constitutes the blue print for the collection, measurement, and analysis of data. The
type of research adopted for the study is descriptive research as the research does not
require any manipulation of variables and does not establish causal relationship
between events; it just simply describes the variables.
Sources of data:
Primary data
Those are the data that are obtained by a study specially designed to fulfill the
data needs of the problem. Meeting the company professionals personally collected the
information necessary for the study.
Secondary data
The sources of secondary data for solve the problems are:Company Annual Report
HDFC securities institutional research
Internet-websites
Period of study
The period of the study is 5 years i.e. (20010-2015). Company 4 years data has been
taken for the analysis.
Tools
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on earnings,
growth, and value in the market.
Earnings per Share EPS
Price to Earnings Ratio P/E
Projected Earnings Growth PEG
Price to Sales P/S
Price to Book P/B
Dividend Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield
Book Value
Ratio Analysis
Liquid ratio
The study was done for a short period of time, which might not hold true over a
long period of time.
7.
DATA ANALYSIS
The process of evaluating data using analytical and logical reasoning to examine each
component of the data provided. This form of analysis is just one of the many steps
that must be completed when conducting a research experiment. Data from various
sources is gathered, reviewed, and then analyzed to form some sort of finding or
conclusion. There are a variety of specific data analysis method, some of which
include data mining, text analytics, business intelligence, and data visualizations
Data can be of several types
Quantitative data is a number
Qualitative data is a pass/fail or the presence of a characteristic
Quantitative data is data measured or identified on a numerical scale. Numerical data
can be analyzed using statistical methods, and results can be displayed using tables,
charts, histograms and graphs.
The term qualitative data is used to describe certain types of information. This is almost
the converse of quantitative data, in which items are more precisely described as data
in terms of quantity and in which numerical values are used. However, data originally
obtained as qualitative information about individual items may give rise to quantitative
data if they are summarized by means of counts.
Qualitative data described items in terms of some quality or categorization that may be
'informal' or may use relatively ill-defined characteristics such as warmth and flavor.
However, qualitative data can include well-defined aspects such as gender, nationality
or commodity type.