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CBO's May 2013 Estimate of the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage
EFFECTS ON INSURANCE COVERAGEa
(Millions of nonelderly people, by calendar year)
Prior-Law
Coverageb
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
35
34
34
33
33
33
33
34
34
34
34
156
157
159
161
164
165
166
167
167
168
169
25
25
26
26
27
27
27
27
28
28
28
Uninsured
57
57
57
56
56
55
55
56
56
56
56
TOTAL
272
274
276
277
279
281
282
284
285
286
288
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
-2
-6
-6
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-2
-3
-4
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
Insurance Exchanges
Uninsuredd
13
22
24
25
25
24
25
24
24
-2
-14
-20
-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
-25
55
44
37
31
30
30
30
30
31
31
31
80%
84%
86%
89%
89%
89%
89%
89%
89%
89%
89%
82%
86%
89%
91%
92%
92%
92%
92%
92%
92%
92%
Change
$5,290
$5,330
$5,350
$5,590
$5,990
$6,240
$6,720
$7,060
$7,460
$7,900
Table 2. CBO's May 2013 Estimate of the Budgetary Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions Contained in the Affordable Care Act
(Billions of dollars, by fiscal year)
Total,
EFFECTS ON THE FEDERAL DEFICITa,b
2013
2014
2015
2016
21
41
62
70
76
80
83
87
92
98
710
26
51
87
108
118
123
129
137
143
151
1,075
14
48
94
151
179
195
205
214
226
237
250
1,798
-2
-4
-5
-5
-5
-5
-6
-6
-6
-45
-10
-11
-14
-15
-16
-17
-18
-19
-20
-140
-5
-9
-11
-14
-18
-22
-80
-6
-14
-20
-23
-24
-26
-28
-31
-171
49
83
130
146
151
151
156
161
166
170
1,363
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2014-2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
EXCHANGE ENROLLMENTa
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0
0
0
6
1
7
11
2
13
19
4
22
20
4
24
20
5
25
20
5
25
20
5
24
20
5
25
19
5
24
19
5
24
Employment-Based Coverage
Purchased Through Exchangesb
DIRECT SPENDING
Premium Credit Outlays
Cost-Sharing Subsidies
Related Spendingc
TOTAL
Total,
2014-2023
0
0
4
4
16
4
3
23
35
8
2
44
63
13
*
76
79
15
*
95
88
16
*
104
92
17
*
108
97
17
*
115
103
18
*
122
109
19
*
128
115
21
*
135
796
149
5
950
0
4
3
26
7
51
11
87
13
108
14
118
15
123
15
129
15
137
15
143
16
151
124
1,075
0
$0
33
$5,290
57
$5,330
100
$5,350
112
$5,590
121
$5,990
124
$6,240
132
$6,720
139
$7,060
145
$7,460
153
$7,900
1,115
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Premium Credit Revenue Reductions (Billions of dollars)
Total, Exchange Subsidies and Related Spending
Total Exchange Subsidies by Calendar Year (Billions of dollars)
Average Exchange Subsidy per Subsidized Enrollee (Dollars)