Result Update

April 21, 2016

Rating matrix

BlueDart Express (BLUDAR)

Rating
Target

:
:

Buy
| 7300

Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:

12 months
19%

Best financial year; momentum remains key

Whats changed?
Target

Changed from | 7600 to | 7300

EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating

Changed from | 101.1 to | 92.6

Changed from | 119.1 to | 115.3
Unchanged

Quarterly performance
Revenue

Q4FY16

Q4FY15

YoY (%)

Q3FY16

QoQ (%)

653.0

-3.6

629.7

571.0

10.3

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin

69.4
11.0

67.9
11.9

2.2
-87 bps

PAT

40.5

34.7

16.6

89.5
-22.4
13.7 -268 bps
50.1

-19.2

Key financials
| Crore

FY15

FY16P

FY17E

FY18E

Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit

2,272
224
127.2

2,565
382
193.0

3,002
455
220.1

3,533
548
273.9

54.4

81.2

92.6

115.3

FY15

FY16P

FY17E

FY18E

112.1
142.0
64.2
47.9
42.7
28.0

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

59.6
75.5
34.5
26.8
44.9
41.6

50.6
64.0
29.2
21.9
43.3
42.9

EPS

Valuation summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P / BV (x)
RONW (%)
ROCE (%)

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization (| crore)
Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore)
Cash (FY16) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity Capital (| Crore)
Face Value (|)

| 6160

Amount
14,636
392.2
288.2
14,740.2
7900 / 5340
23.8
10.0

Peer Set
1M

3M

6M

12M

Patel Integrated

19.9

15.4

8.8

(12.6)

Blue Dart Exp.

Gati

13.9

3.2

(15.0)

0.4

11.6

0.8

(27.0)

(45.1)

Transport Corp.

(1.8)

7.9

(9.9)

6.3

Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

BlueDarts (BDE) Q4FY16 revenues met our expectations with growth

of 10% YoY (down 4% QoQ) to | 630 crore. Contribution from B2C
segment continues to remain at 25%. However, the B2B business
continues to remain subdued. For FY16, revenues grew 13% YoY to
| 2565 crore compared to | 2272 crore in FY15. Annual shipments for
the year grew 13.5% YoY to 15.9 crore. However, tonnage during the
same period posted growth of 6.6%
EBITDA for the quarter was adversely impacted by the implementation
of new bonus act, following which margins in Q4FY16 remained
subdued at 11%. Besides lower volumes, continued elevated fixed
costs led to lower EBITDA margins. Following the same, EBITDA was
at | 69.4 crore (I-direct estimate | 87 crore). Notably, margins for
Q4FY16 were lowest in FY16. For full year FY16, EBITDA grew 70%
YoY to | 381 crore with a margin expansion of 500 bps to 15%
PAT in Q4 grew 17% YoY (-19% QoQ) to | 41 crore (I-direct estimate:
| 50 crore). The EBITDA margin miss resulted in dissonance in PAT
expectations. PAT growth for FY16 was moderated by higher interest,
depreciation charges. PAT for the year grew 52% YoY to | 193 crore
Continues in pole position; to benefit from increased activities
For FY15, BlueDart continues to be a market leader in the | 3360 crore
organised air express market with 46% market share. However, market
share in the | 4830 crore organised ground express market remains at
sub 15%. The express industry is expected to grow at an average rate of
17% to | 27000 crore by FY18 from the current size of ~| 17000 crore.
Currently, the company has a fleet of seven freighters (5-B/757s and
subsidiarys 2-B/737) with a daily dedicated capacity of 385 tonnes. With
79 express hubs and 477 facilities (spokes) and a workforce of ~10000,
BDE offers an entire range of services that extend from a document to an
entire charter load of shipment. The geographical reach empanels BDE as
the preferred logistic partner catering to Tier II and Tier III cities.
Opportunity in world of e-tailing
With the continuous increase in internet penetration (currently around
11%) and growing use of smart phones and tablets, e-tailing is expected
to maintain strong growth momentum of ~54% over FY15-18. Currently,
e-tailing contributes ~25% to total revenues, compared to 18% in the
previous year. Increase in mobile internet penetration has led most etailers to feel the current sales from mobiles, which is currently at 35-40%
of overall sales will increase to ~70% in the near term. Driven by
increased ad spends across Tier II and Tier III towns, changing buying
patterns and increased ecommerce activities would lead to higher
volumes for BDE. The growth in FY16 could be completely dedicated to ecommerce demand in B2C. However, going forward, a revival in the
economy and GST implementation will trigger B2B growth.
GST delayed, not phased out; implementation to energise sector
The Indian logistics market is highly fragmented with ~2500 players and
50% share of the unorganised market. With a direct correlation to GDP,
trade growth, an expected improvement in the same would buoy revenue
growth for logistic players. Delay in passing Goods & Service Tax (GST)
has sentimentally impacted the stock performance. However, hope
hinges on attaining consensus. Coupled with a strong market share and
positive levers around operating leverage, BDE is expected to deliver
sharper growth in earnings and profitability. Subsequently, we maintain
our BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of | 7300.

Variance analysis
Q4FY16 Q4FY16E
629.7
628.5

Revenue
Freight Handling & Service cost
Employee Expenses
Administrative & Oth Expenses

Q4FY15
571.0

YoY (%)
10.3

Q3FY16 QoQ (%)

653.0
-3.6

393.3

380.2

361.3

8.9

392.1

0.3

99.2

100.6

83.1

19.4

110.7

-10.4

67.8

60.0

58.7

15.5

60.7

11.6

560.3

540.8

503.1

11.4

563.5

-0.6

EBITDA

69.4

87.7

67.9

2.2

89.5

-22.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.0

13.9

11.9

-87 bps

Depreciation

10.6

10.4

12.9

-18.3

7.7

7.8

7.7

0.0

7.8

-1.7

10.1

6.1

5.2

95.0

6.6

53.6

Total Expense

Interest
Other Income
Exceptional Gain/Loss
PBT

13.7 -268 bps

10.2

Comments
B2C remains at ~25% of total revenues. However, B2B revenues continue to
remain subdued
Continued fixed costs kept costs at elevated levels
Increase in employee expenses was due to new bonus act

Margins remained subdued at 11% levels

3.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

61.3

75.6

52.5

16.8

78.1

-21.5

Total Tax

20.8

25.3

17.8

17.3

28.0

-25.7

PAT

40.5

50.3

34.7

16.6

50.1

-19.2

Interest is on account of bonus debentures

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
FY17E
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBITDA

Old
3,002.3

FY18E

New % Change
3,002.3
0.0

Old
3,532.9

New % Change Comments

3,532.9
0.0 Revenue estimates remain unchanged

412.5

455.3

10.4

486.8

547.9

13.7

15.2

142 bps

13.8

15.5

PAT

240.1

220.1

-8.3

282.9

273.9

EPS (|)

101.1

81.2

-19.7

119.1

92.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

12.6
173 bps Margins to remain at ~15% levels
-3.2 Higher depreciation would result in a tapering in PAT
-22.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Assumptions
Current
Revenue Growth (%)
Present Value FCFE
Cost of Equity

Earlier

Phase 1
16.5

Phase 2
28.0

Phase 3
14.5

Phase 1
16.5

Phase 2
28.0

429.4

1,839.7

4,123.3

627.0

2,055.6

11.3

12.1

12.0

11.5

12.1

Phase 3
14.5 Slower-than-expected trade recovery, coupled with a delay in GST would trim our
near term estimations. Long term growth story remains intact
4,152.0
12.0 FCFE value Phase 1 (FY15-18), Phase 2 (FY19-25) & Phase 3 (FY26-30)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Upbeat volume growth to sustain revenue momentum
For FY16, tonnage handled for BDE grew 7% YoY to 595623 tonnes while
shipments grew 14% YoY to 160 million. Tonnage growth in FY10-16
grew at 14% CAGR whereas total shipments (including domestics and
international) grew at 13% CAGR in the same period. Volume growth in
the air express industry is largely driven by a robust outlook in industries
like banking financial services & insurance (BFSI), e-commerce,
pharmaceuticals and automotive. We believe this volume growth would
be supported by an addition of a freight plane to BDEs fleet in FY16.
BDEs presence in the fastest growing segment of the logistics sector and
its dominant position in the air express with continuously expanding
presence in the ground express segment would enable it to garner higher
tonnage.
Exhibit 2: Growth in shipments

423
400

338

200

CY10

FY 16

FY 15

FY14

FY13 (15
mths)

CY11

CY10

87

100

114

126

160

141

FY 16

513

559

FY 15

600

596

FY14

595

FY13 (15
mths)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

800

CY11

Exhibit 1: Tonnage growth momentum to continue

Shipments (mn)

Tonnage handled (000 tonnes)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 3: Growth in shipments

3,000.0

2,564.5

2,500.0

2,171.7

2,000.0
1,500.0

2,272.2
1,938.3

1,492.7

1,000.0
500.0
0.0
CY11

FY13E (15 mths)

FY14

FY 15

FY 16

Revenues (| crore)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

The cargo of the air express segment is mostly characterised by high

value low weight cargo such as gems & jewellery and high-end consumer
goods. In the ground express segment, BDEs market share improved
from 5.9% in FY07 to 13% in FY15. The segment is driven by strong
outlook in sectors like auto parts, electrical appliances and healthcare
services coupled with growth in the e-tailing segment. As a result, BDE
has been able to maintain strong volume growth as it has ~96%
institutionalised client base providing considerable volume assurance.
Going ahead, we believe that with outsourcing of logistic operations by
online retail and other sector clients, express and logistics players will
benefit notably.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

E-commerce: Keeping up its high growth promise

The current market size of e-commerce is $20 billion and is expected to
reach $50 billion by 2020, which implies a CAGR of 20% in FY15-20. It is
estimated that private funds have invested over $6 billion in CY14 in e-biz
companies. Online ticketing forms ~65% while online retail (e-tailing)
comprises 35% of the overall market. The online segment (excluding
online ticketing) is estimated to have less than 1% market share at
| 13,900 crore. It is this e-tailing segment that has grown at a robust pace
of nearly 56% CAGR over 2007-15. Going ahead, it is expected to keep its
high growth momentum of ~54% CAGR over 2015-20. The growth in etailing has been fuelled by adoption of multi-channel and omni-channel
delivery methodology. Changing lifestyles coupled with access to
technology are expected to augur well for online retailing in India. The
retail industry is highly fragmented and unorganised. We believe
organised retail, which is a miniscule 7% of the total industry, has huge
potential to grow. Further, the budding online retail industry is in a
scenario as a disruptive force and provides significant potential to
structurally alter the retail industry in the country.
Exhibit 4: E-commerce revenues to gallop, going ahead
35

29.1

30
25

19.2

20
12.7

15
10
5

Exhibit 5: E-fulfilment revenue to contribute to the growth

2.4

3.6

2014

2015E

8.4

5.4

0
2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

2020E

176.2
132.4
98.1
72.7
28.6

2014

39.8

2015E

India Ecommerce Market (USD Bn)

53.8

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

India Efulfilment Market (USD Mn)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Another characteristic of the e-commerce business that is predominant in

India is payment through cash-on-delivery (COD) mode. Around 23% of
online shoppers in metropolitan India choose to pay through the CoD
mode. This mode of payment is imperative in the customer trust building
mechanism. Express companies like BlueDart stand to gain from such
transactions as these increase their volumes. Further, for express
companies, the risk of default of payment from e-commerce companies is
mitigated in case of CoD transaction as the payment is handled by
express companies. As the ecommerce segment forms ~23% of the total
topline for BDE and is expected to grow further, BDE has attuned its
strategy and products according to the requirements of the sector.
Exhibit 6: E-commerce revenues to gallop, going ahead
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

15.5

Exhibit 7: E-fulfilment revenue to contribute to growth

16.6

13.8
12
10.1
8.3
6.1
5.8

10.4

9.4
7.7

8.4
7.1

7.3
6.5

8.3

11.2
8.9

1112

1200
1000
791

800
558

600

393

400
200

138

196

278

2013

2014

2015
China

2016
USA

2017
Germany

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

2018

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

India Last Mile Delivery Market (USD Mn)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4

Margins at highest levels since CY10; current levels to sustain

BDE is the leader in air cargo transport with 46% market share, which is
considered the premium segment. Further, BDEs market share in ground
improved from 5.9% in FY07 to 15% in FY16. With an improvement in
volumes and tonnages, BDE seeks to optimise operating levers.
Rationalisation of fixed expenses and route optimisation will bring in
higher efficiencies that will gradually lead to margin expansion. The
express market has large number of unorganised players that are unable
to provide the entire spectrum of services across the supply chain and
tend to lose business to quality players like BDE. With every additional
value-added service, BDE manages to increase the revenue per package,
keeping fixed costs constant. Furthermore, a decline in diesel prices and
lower aviation turbine fuel enhance margins by 500 bps to 15% for FY16.
However, going ahead, with diesel prices at current levels and increase in
business activities, we believe the company will resume its growth
trajectory in its B2B segment, catalysed by BDEs strong institutional
client base and, thus, expect margins to recover to historical levels.
Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin to recover as economy expected to rebound
4000

3533

3500
2500
2000

3002

14.9

3000
1938

15.5

15.2

2565

2272
9.9

9.0

1500
1000
500
0

174

123

FY14

224

129

193

FY15
Revenue

220

FY16
EBITDA

548

455

382

FY17E
PAT

274

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

FY18E

EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Implementation of GST to boost volumes for organised players

The Indian logistics industry is plagued by multiple levels of state and
central taxes. The product is prone to double taxation as taxes already
paid on inputs are not adjusted on calculation of taxes on the final
product. Further complications are in the form of interstate transactions
that are taxed separately, for which no input tax credit is available. Thus,
introduction of GST remains a much awaited reform that will simplify
these complications and benefit consumers, produces and the
government. More than 140 markets have implemented GST in some
form or the other. With numerous benefits at both firm/consumer and
economy level, GST is expected to add over 1% to the GDP.
Implementation of GST will lead to a simplified tax structure with a
majority of taxes pooled under one uniform rate, thereby bringing more
efficient tax administration and reduction tax seepages.
Due to multiple taxation, firms had resorted to setting up multiple
warehouses in different states. This was adding to firms costs, as they
were unable to take advantage of economies of scale from using larger
but fewer warehouses. Implementation of GST will overhaul and
compress the entire transportation setup. It is estimated that under the
GST system, tax will be levied on stock transfers and full credit will be
given on inter-state transactions. The outcome of the same will enable the
manufacturer to plan the warehousing and decisions on the basis of
operational and logistics efficiency. The current supply chain
arrangements would be realigned making certain proximity to

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

manufacturing locale or consumption markets, resulting in a diverse huband-spoke models. Post GST, the demand for warehousing is expected to
grow at an annual rate of 9% from current 918 mn sq ft to 1440 mn sq ft.
Exhibit 9: Impact on warehousing

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by FY16 would lead
to a transformation of the traditional way of managing the supply chain
requirements. This transformation is expected to trigger the transition of
logistics sector from the unorganised to organised market. With a single
rate being applied across India, the whole country will act as a single
market, thereby reducing taxes in manufactured goods and impacting the
pricing of the product. In the absence of a cascading taxation system,
manufacturers do not have to maintain multiple warehouses to save interstate tax. This will lead to consolidation of warehouses across the
country. Economies of large scale and centralised management of
volumes will bring in higher efficiencies for logistics companies. These
companies would be able to fetch a better pay load factor on the back of
route optimisation leading to a faster turnaround time (TAT).
BlueDart Express preferred player in logistics segment
Logistics, like retail, is a highly fragmented and unorganised segment in
India and providing end-to-end service to upcoming online players
remains a challenge. BlueDart Express (BDE) with its dedicated air
facilities and ground network is well equipped to cater to the growing
needs of the online retail players. In 2010, as the online retail market
began to see green shoots, BDE derived nearly 3% of its revenue from
the e-tailing segment. However, currently, the e-tailing segment
contributes nearly 25% of total revenue to BDEs topline registering a
CAGR of nearly 80% in FY10-16. Going ahead, as internet penetration
grows growth in e-tailing segment is expected to be much stronger in
tier-II and III cities. Consequently, as BDE expands its network to more pin
codes from current 34267; it will be well geared to cater to a large
geographical scope, thereby increasing revenue share from the online
retail segment.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Valuation
As the economy nears a turnaround, BDE is expected to be one of the
foremost beneficiaries in the logistics sector. Its strong institutional
clientele and diverse customer proposition such as time definite cargo
delivery, temperature controlled cargo movement, etc. virtually ensure
consistent cargo volume growth in future. Further, with the growth of
online retail industry, the e-tailing segment is expected to show strong
growth. E-tailing revenue for BDE increased at a CAGR of ~80% over
FY10-16. As the online segment becomes more vibrant, the revenue
contribution from the segment will only be more pronounced. Also, its
robust balance sheet with strong cash flow and debt-free capital structure
provide a cushion at difficult times. Going ahead, as we expect the
economy to gather steam, passing of fuel hikes to customers becomes
smoother leading to an improvement in margin. Also, as the central
government emphasises on implementation of GST, it is expected to
bring a structural change in the sector, as a whole. We believe, as a
leading player, BDE is well poised to ride the next growth wave.
Following the delay in GST implementation coupled with slower than
expected revival in trade activities we had moderate our phase 1 (FY16 to
18) revenue expectations in our three phases of DCF valuation
methodology. We continue to expect phase one growth at 17% CAGR.
Further, as GST gets implemented (assuming in FY18) it would take a
minimum of two years for the benefits to percolate to the logistics
industry together with enhanced revenue contribution from E-tailing
segment. Consequently, in our phase two (FY19-25), we expect revenues
to grow at a CAGR of 26%. Subsequently, in the third and the last phase
(FY26-30) we anticipate a stable growth period with both revenue and net
profit posting 14.5% growth. Subsequently, with an average cost of
equity of ~12% over the three phases (Phase-1=11.3%, Phase-2=12.2%
& Phase-3=12%) and terminal growth rate of 4.5%, we arrive at a DCF
based target price of | 7300 with a BUY recommendation on the stock.
Exhibit 10: DCF based valuation
Particulars

Amount

Average cost of equity (Ke)

12%

PV of Phase 1

429.4

PV of Phase 2

1839.7

PV of Phase 3

4123.3

Terminal Growth Rate

4.5%

Present Value of terminal cash flow

10,951.7

PV of FCFE

6,392.5

Number of Equity Shares outstanding

2.4

DCF - Target price (|)

7,300

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 11: Valuations

FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E

Sales
(| cr)
2272.2
2564.5
3002.3
3532.9

Sales
Growth (%)
17.2
12.9
17.1
17.7

EPS
(|)
54.4
81.2
92.6
115.3

EPS
Growth (%)
5.5
49.2
14.1
24.4

PE
(x)
115.8
73.9
64.8
52.1

EV/EBITDA
(x)
65.9
37.5
31.6
26.1

RoNW RoCE
(%)
(%)
42.7 28.0
45.0 38.0
42.2 40.6
43.0 44.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Company snapshot
Target price | 7300

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

Mar-17

Dec-16

Sep-16

Jun-16

Mar-16

Dec-15

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Dec-11

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
Nov-08

Event
BDE to hike freight charges

Sep-09

BDE plans to open new warehouse at Hyderabad airport by Dec-09

Jul-10

BDE speeds up 4.31% as net profit surged 124% YoY in Q2CY10

Apr-11

BDE net profit surges 52% YoY in Q1CY11; MNCs with more than 75% holding gained on delisting news, Bluedart too gained 20%

Feb-12

BDE loses 3.6% to |1608 as profit slipped 6.7% in Q4 December 2011

Apr-12

BDE falls 4% to | 2015 on weak Q1 March 2012 earnings as profit declined 19.5%

Jan-13

BlueDart Express jumps after robust Q4FY13 result (describe result)

Oct-13

Net profit declines 6.65% in September 2013 quarter

May-15

Posts highest EBITDA margins of 11.9% in past seven quarters

Jun-15

Posts highest EBITDA margins of 13% in past nine quarters

Oct-15

Consecutive third quarter of margin expansion with 14.2% EBITDA margins. Upgrade the target price to | 8500

Apr-16

FY16 posted as the best year in terms of profitability. Revenues grew by 13%, margins expanded by 500 bps to 15%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Shareholding Pattern

Name
DHL Express Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Bright Star Investments Pvt. Ltd.
IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited
Damani Estates & Finance Pvt. Ltd.
SBI Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
Axis Asset Management Company Limited
BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited
The Vanguard Group, Inc.

Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)

31-Dec-15 0.75
17.8
0.0
31-Dec-15 0.03
0.8
0.8
31-Dec-15 0.02
0.4
0.0
31-Dec-15 0.01
0.3
0.3
31-Dec-15 0.01
0.3
0.0
31-Dec-15 0.01
0.3
0.0
31-Mar-16 0.01
0.2
0.0
31-Mar-16 0.01
0.2
0.0
30-Nov-15 0.00
0.1
0.0
29-Feb-16 0.00
0.1
0.0

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Jun-15
75.0
6.7
6.0
12.3

Sep-15
75.0
7.1
5.8
12.1

Dec-15
75.0
9.0
4.4
11.7

Mar-16
75.0
7.8
5.4
11.8

Value
-11.10
-8.76
-9.76
-3.78
-2.77

Shares
-0.11
-0.09
-0.09
-0.04
-0.02

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Bright Star Investments Pvt. Ltd.
Damani Estates & Finance Pvt. Ltd.
Axis Asset Management Company Limited
IDBI Asset Management Limited
Russell Investments Limited

Value
81.55
31.05
0.91
0.19
0.02

Shares
0.80
0.30
0.01
0.00
0.00

Sells
Investor name
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
William Blair Investment Management, LLC
William Blair & Company, L.L.C.
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
Aircraft CharterCost
Other Aircraft Expenses
Fuel Charges
Other Operating Expenses
Employee Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)

| Crore
FY14
1,938.3
11.6
40.0
210.6
375.0
702.2
266.6
169.8
1,764.2
174.1
-19.0
27.3
0.0
49.7
196.5
63.5
122.6
-20.7
51.6

FY15
2,272.2
17.2
40.0
420.3
387.0
670.6
321.6
208.3
2,047.9
224.2
28.8
43.6
11.2
24.6
194.1
66.9
129.3
5.1
54.4

FY16P
2,564.5
12.9
37.8
322.0
372.4
641.1
500.9
308.6
2,182.8
381.7
70.2
82.1
35.5
30.2
294.3
101.4
193.0
51.7
81.2

FY17E
3,002.3
17.1
37.8
377.0
435.9
855.7
540.4
300.2
2,547.1
455.3
19.3
108.5
29.9
16.7
333.5
113.4
220.1
14.1
92.6

FY18E
3,532.9
17.7
37.8
423.9
513.0
1,013.9
635.9
360.4
2,984.9
547.9
20.4
120.5
29.9
17.5
415.0
141.1
273.9
24.4
115.3

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
(Inc)/dec in Current Assets
Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions
Others
CF from operating activities
(Inc)/dec in Investments
(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets
Others
CF from investing activities
Issue/(Buy back) of Equity
Inc/(dec) in loan funds
Others
CF from financing activities
Net Cash flow
Opening Cash
Closing Cash

| Crore
FY14
122.6
27.3
-53.4
96.0
-7.7
184.7
-1.6
-23.2
37.3
12.5
0.0
0.0
-332.4
-332.4
-135.2
241.6
106.5

FY15
127.2
43.6
-29.4
53.3
-33.6
161.1
-2.2
20.1
7.3
25.2
4.7
332.2
-463.3
-126.5
59.8
106.5
166.2

FY16P
193.0
82.1
-31.3
151.9
0.0
395.6
26.5
-392.3
370.5
4.7
0.0
0.0
-278.4
-278.4
121.9
166.2
288.2

FY17E
220.1
108.5
-79.8
-16.6
0.0
232.3
0.0
-100.0
204.2
104.2
0.0
0.0
-350.4
-350.4
-13.9
288.2
274.3

FY18E
273.9
120.5
-84.3
35.4
0.0
345.5
0.0
-100.0
-28.6
-128.6
0.0
0.0
-140.3
-140.3
76.6
274.3
350.9

FY14

FY15

FY16P

FY17E

FY18E

51.6
63.1
270.6
49.9
44.8

53.5
71.9
125.2
20.0
70.0

81.2
115.8
180.5
40.6
121.3

92.6
138.3
219.4
46.3
115.4

115.3
166.0
267.9
57.6
147.7

9.0
9.5
6.3
0.5
50.2
20.2

9.9
8.5
5.6
0.6
46.7
20.6

14.9
11.5
7.5
3.0
45.3
24.6

15.2
11.1
7.3
1.0
45.0
21.0

15.5
11.7
7.8
1.0
45.0
21.0

19.1
22.5
28.7

42.7
28.0
41.3

45.0
38.0
63.4

42.2
40.6
52.6

43.0
44.1
60.3

131.8
92.2
8.3
8.3
25.1

112.1
64.3
6.3
6.3
47.9

75.8
38.5
5.7
5.7
34.1

66.5
32.5
4.9
4.9
28.1

53.4
26.8
4.2
4.1
23.0

0.0
0.0
1.6
1.6

1.5
1.1
1.7
1.6

1.0
0.8
1.5
1.4

0.9
0.6
1.6
1.4

0.7
0.5
1.8
1.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Total Debt
Long term Provisions
Other Long term liabilities
Deferred Tax Liability
Minority Interest
Total Liabilities

FY14

FY15

FY16P

FY17E

FY18E

23.8
619.2
643.0
0.0
9.4
0.0
17.46
0.00
669.8

23.8
283.5
307.3
332.2
14.8
0.0
10.17
0.00
664.5

23.8
390.4
414.1
392.2
17.6
11.0
-14.65
12.39
832.7

23.8
502.0
525.7
392.2
0.0
0.0
9.47
0.00
927.4

23.8
621.3
645.1
392.2
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.00
1,037.3

Assets
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Impairment
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Non-current Investments
Long term loans & advances
Deferred Tax Asset
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Current investments
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other liab & Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds

423.7
195.7
0.0
228.0
8.5
236.5
24.3
235.9
0.5
2.7
266.7
67.1
0.1
106.5
0.0
443.1
107.3
163.1
270.4
172.7
669.9

386.8
171.1
0.0
215.6
25.4
241.0
26.5
183.0
0.6
4.0
291.0
71.0
4.8
166.3
0.0
537.0
128.0
205.3
333.4
203.6
664.5

753.7
253.2
0.0
500.5
25.4
525.9
0.0
86.8
1.2
21.1
318.4
57.8
8.9
288.2
0.0
694.4
173.0
302.6
475.6
218.8
832.7

904.5
361.7
0.0
542.7
0.0
542.7
0.0
91.1
1.2
8.2
370.1
98.7
0.0
274.3
0.0
751.3
172.7
286.2
459.0
292.4
927.4

1,004.5
482.3
0.0
522.2
0.0
522.2
0.0
95.7
1.2
9.7
435.6
116.1
0.0
350.9
0.0
912.3
203.3
291.1
494.4
417.9
1,037.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
DPS
Cash Per Share
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin
PBT / Total Operating income
PAT Margin
Inventory days
Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 9

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Logistics)

CMP
M Cap
(|)
TP(|) Rating (| Cr)
Sector / Company
271
280
BUY 2,065
Transport Corp (TRACOR)
6,200 7,300
BUY 14,850
BlueDart
124
150
BUY 1,070
Gati Ltd.
175
195
BUY 8,440
Gujarat Pipavav (GPPL)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

EPS (|)
P/E (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
10.8 12.6 14.0 19.0 17.0 14.5
53.5 81.2 92.6 112.1 77.0 67.5
4.7
3.7
4.8 22.8 29.4 22.6
8.0
5.1
6.3 19.1 30.2 24.3

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
10.6 10.5
9.0
64.3 39.0 32.9
9.7 10.4
8.5
14.3 19.3 14.7

RoCE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
19.8 20.0 19.9
28.0 38.0 40.6
11.2 11.3 13.1
22.8 13.2 16.8

RoE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
13.1 14.0 13.8
42.7 45.0 42.2
6.3
5.7
7.1
21.6 12.1 13.0

Page 10

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 12