To:

BeauWhitney

From:
J.L.Wilson

Date:
June27,2016

RE:

SurveyResults:MarionCountyProposaltoBanProduction,SaleofMarijuanainCounty

TheNelsonReportconductedascientifictelephonesurveytoassesstheattitudesofvotersresidingin
MarionCountyaboutapendingCountyproposalthatwouldprohibittheproductionandsaleof
marijuanaintheunincorporatedareasofMarionCounty.

Findingsfromthisreportwillinformthestrategytoopposeabanontheproductionandsaleof
marijuanainunincorporatedMarionCounty.

ResearchDesign:
Scientifictelephonesurvey
N=384voters
15minutequestionnaire
ConductedbetweenApril13and16,2016
Quotassetbyage,gender,politicalparty,andareaofdistricttoensurearepresentativesample
Respondentscontactedthrougharegisteredvoterlistthatincludescellphones
Qualitycontrolmeasuresemployed,includingquotamonitoringandcallbacks
Marginoferror+/5.0%atthe95%confidencelevel

KeyFindings:

AnarrowpluralityofMarionCountyvotersareopposedtomarijuanalegalizationinthewakeof
Measure91spassage48%remainopposed,47%support.

MostMarionCountyvotersbelieveBallotMeasure91willhaveapositiveimpactonMarion
Countyseconomy(54%positive;26%negative).

TheinitialballottestonaproposaltobanmarijuanaproductioninunincorporatedMarion
Countystartsoutata4pointdeficit.Only45%ofvoterswouldsupport;49%wouldoppose.
However,thosewhostronglyfavorsuchaproposaloutnumberthosewhowouldstrongly
opposebya39%to36%margin.

MarionCountyvotersstronglyfavoraddinga3%countywideretailsalestaxonthesaleof
marijuana.65%ofMarionCountyvoterswouldsupportthetax.27%wouldoppose.

Analysis:

ThekeyfindingisthatMarionCountyvotershavelargelymadeuptheirmindsontheissueofmarijuana
legalizationanditsrelatedissues.Votersmaybesplitonlegalization,butthereisanarrowand
consistentmajoritywhoareinclinedtoopposebanningproductionandsaleofmarijuanainMarion
Countynowthatlegalizationisthelawoftheland.

Theopeningballottestshowsonly45%supportand49%oppositionforbanningproductionof
marijuanainunincorporatedMarionCounty.Twoobservationshere:(1)Thisisaweakstartingposition
foraballotproposal,and(2)the6%undecidedisuncommonlysmallforaninitialballottestandfurther
illustratesthatvotershavelargelymadeuptheirminds.

Thefactthatonlytwoargumentsproducedstatisticallysignificantmovementontheproposedbanalso
affirmsthatvotersfeeltheyhaveheardandprocessedmostoftheargumentssurroundingmarijuana
legalizationandtheyvelargelymadeuptheirminds.

Afunded,organizedandwellexecutedcampaigninoppositiontobanningproductionofmarijuanain
unincorporatedMarionCountyshouldbeabletoprevailinthisenvironment.Thekeytothiscampaign
willclearlybethearticulationoftheeconomicbenefitsofallowingmarijuanaproductioninMarion
County.Itwillalsobeimportanttohighlighttheopportunitycostsofnotallowingproduction(ie,lost
taxrevenue).Itisalsorecommendedthatthecampaignseekthirdpartyvalidatersanddemonstrate
thatthetraditionalagriculturalcommunitysupportsit.

Finally,iftheCommissionweretoputa3%retailmarijuanasalestaxontheballotwithaninitial
supportlevelof65%Iwouldexpectittopass.

FinalNote:

TheNelsonReportwouldrecommendabriefbenchmarkingofthisissueaftertheMarionCounty
Commissionpassestheballottitle.Wemakethisrecommendationfortworeasons:(1)ballotmeasure
titleshaveaprofoundimpactonhowmeasuresareperceivedandinterpretedbyvoters,and(2)the
Commissionmaydraftthemeasureinsuchawaytocompelthemarijuanaindustrytoseekayesvote
onthemeasuretoallowproductionandsaleintheCounty.Thiswilladdanotherchallengetothe
campaignthatneedstobeaccountedfor.Itwillbeperceivedasanothervoteonlegalization,whichin
thiscase,playsintoopponentshands.