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S.F. ranked-choice voting confusing, poll

says
John Cot, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, March 10, 2011

San Francisco is heading into its first competitive

mayor's race using ranked-choice voting with a
majority of voters who don't understand how the
system works, according to a poll to be released today.
Despite ranked-choice voting being introduced for
Board of Supervisors races in 2004 and used in every
city election since, 55 percent of respondents to a recent poll commissioned by the Chamber of Commerce
said they didn't know whether their vote counted once their first-, second- or third-choice candidate had
been eliminated.
In that scenario, their vote would not affect the outcome of the race, although 29 percent of respondents
thought that their vote would be counted. Only 15 percent of the respondents said that their vote would
not be counted, according to the poll, which was conducted by David Binder Research and has a margin of
error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
"It's clear that San Francisco voters understand ranked-choice voting about as well as they understand
quantum physics," said Nathan Ballard, a Democratic strategist who was a spokesman for Lt. Gov. Gavin
Newsom when he was mayor.
"It's cloaked in mystery to the degree that most voters find it indecipherable, and will have no idea of the
impact of their votes on election day," Ballard said.
Steven Hill, a consultant who helped draft ranked-choice voting systems for San Francisco and Oakland,
said the poll, which surveyed 500 registered voters in the city from Feb. 16 to 20, was inconclusive. He
also said the poll's questions were skewed to elicit responses unfavorable to ranked-choice voting to lay
the groundwork for a repeal of the system.
"Most people don't understand how your car works, or how your computer works or how your phone
works," Hill said. "But they know how to use it, and they're comfortable with it."
Under ranked-choice voting, voters list their first, second and third choices. If no candidate wins more
than half the vote, last-place candidates are eliminated and second- and third-place votes from those
ballots are redistributed until someone wins a majority.
The system didn't factor into the 2007 mayor's race because Newsom had no serious challenger.
Determining strategy
Political camps are closely watching how ranked-choice voting plays out in this year's mayor's race,
particularly after Oakland Mayor Jean Quan surprised the Bay Area in November with her victory over
former state Sen. Don Perata, who had an 11 percentage point lead in first-place votes. Business interests
are considering a challenge to the system, although Chamber of Commerce Vice President Jim Lazarus
said his organization does not have a position on the matter.
A real estate group is bankrolling a separate legal challenge to the city's ranked-choice system, and the

case is now before the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. A ruling could come by summer.
Backers say ranked-choice voting allows for greater democratic involvement while eliminating the need for
costly runoff elections that often have low voter turnout. It also has led to coalition building and less
negative campaigning, they say.
Critics contend it allows candidates to get elected with an extremely low number of votes and doesn't allow
voters to hear directly from the top two vote-getters in a runoff. Malia Cohen emerged as the victor in
November's race for District 10 supervisor after 20 rounds of counting. She received just 11.8 percent of
first-place votes - two candidates had more first-place votes. Hill said Cohen's race was an anomaly, and
that using it as an example is "cherry-picking data."
Voters unsure
The new Chamber of Commerce poll suggests that a substantial number of voters may not use their
ranked-choice options.
When asked who their second choice for mayor would be on the November ballot, 38 percent of those
polled did not pick anyone, with 10 percent undecided. A majority of respondents - 54 percent - did not
list a third choice.
Corey Cook, a political science professor at the University of San Francisco, said that was not necessarily
an indication ranked-choice voting wasn't working.
"It's really early in the race, and voters are used to only casting one vote," Cook said. "But if voters are
confused, and think second and third choices dilute their chance of electing the person they most prefer,
then it's a huge problem."
Using the system
Data from recent elections shows that most voters make use of the options in a ranked-choice system. In
the last Oakland mayor's race, 78 percent of voters made three choices, 10 percent made two and 8
percent made one, according to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters. In San Francisco, 62 percent of
voters ranked three candidates in the last District 10 race, almost 15 percent ranked two candidates and 23
percent ranked just one.
But the chamber poll shows support for ranked-choice voting cooling, with voters evenly split on whether
they prefer the current system or a runoff. In 2009, voters overwhelmingly preferred ranked-choice
voting, 62 to 28 percent, the poll found.
"A lot of voters don't understand ranked-choice voting," said chamber President Steve Falk, "but they're
beginning to get concerned."
E-mail John Cot at jcote@sfchronicle.com.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/03/10/MNG11I6QNO.DTL
This article appeared on page A - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
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