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Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

www.elsevier.com/locate/pplann

Desert reclamation, a management system for sustainable


urban expansion
Rania E.S. Abdel-Galil *
Department of Architectural Engineering & Environmental Design, Arab Academy for Science and Technology,
Abu-Qir Campus, PO Box 1029, Miami, Alexandria, Egypt

Abstract
Urbanisation is occurring at an unprecedented scale worldwide, with developing countries claiming the biggest share.
Developing countries are increasingly facing enormous pressures to manage their urban and rural areas challenged by limited
resources, exploding numbers of population and rising expectations for a higher quality of life. Sustainability is central to the
management of existing and newly developed areas. It can offer a comprehensive discourse for understanding the functioning of
cities and their hinterlands, with an aim to achieve a balance between environmental, economic and social issues for current and
future generations. Managing the urbanization of newly developed areas requires innovative thinking and an ability to predict and
evaluate the impacts of possible futures. As the new map of Egypt is redrawn and much hope lies on the development of its deserts
constituting 95% of the total land area, an efficient process of directing and facilitating urban development is urgently required. This
paper presents an Urban Sustainable Management System (USMS) using the process of Integrated Assessment to assess three
possible development scenarios based on different economic bases for new developments on desert reclaimed land. Indicators of a
quantitative and qualitative nature are used to describe environmental, social and economic capitals of three scenarios as well as
setting targets towards the aim of sustainability. Pressure points hindering the sustainable development of reclaimed land are drawn
under the three different scenarios. The USMS provides an urban management system that overcomes difficulties of data
availability, combines interdisciplinary knowledge and deals with uncertainties of future developments; struggles decisionmakers
confront across the divide but more so in developing countries.
# 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Sustainable urban management; Indicators; Targets; Scenarios; Developing countries

Contents
1.
2.
3.

4.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Desert reclaimed land a revived agenda . . . . . . .
Sustainability and the planning of urban expansion
3.1. Operationalisation of urban sustainability .
3.2. Existing models and systems . . . . . . . . . . .
An Urban Sustainable Management System . . . . .
4.1. Methodological approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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* Present address: 108 The Maples, Birds Avenue, Clonskeagh, Dublin 14, Ireland. Tel.: +353 867214650.
E-mail addresses: rania@aast.edu, rania.agalil@gmail.com.
0305-9006/$ see front matter # 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2012.04.003

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R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

4.2.
4.3.
4.4.

5.

6.

Methodological implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Indicator selection and organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Scenario building and analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.1. Scenario narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.2. Scenario analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5. Setting targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6. Scenario assessment and evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6.1. Scenario I an agricultural based development
4.6.2. Scenario II an industrial based development .
4.6.3. Scenario III a tourism based development . .
Findings and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.1. Agricultural scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.2. Industrial scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.3. Tourism scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.4. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. Introduction
In the next 50 years the world population is projected
to reach over nine billion (DESA, 2009; WRI, 2006)
with virtually this entire growth taking place in
developing countries (El Araby, 2002; Population
Reference Bureau, 2007), with as many people living
in urban areas as outside them and the projection of 60%
of Africas population living in cities by 2050
(UNHABITAT, 2010). Cohen (2005) warns that if
current trends are assumed poor countries will have to
build the equivalent of a city of more than one million
people each week for the next 45 years. The World
Development Report (2003) estimates that the demands
for energy, water, housing and education will be
enormous. We can thus look ahead to an unprecedented
age of urbanisation and city-building. A century during
which the vast majority of the worlds population will
have to live in cities cries out for images of the good city
(Freidmann, 2000), especially when continued spatial
expansion and growth of cities result in social
segregation, increasing unemployment, environmental
deterioration and declining quality of life (Rotmans, van
Asselt, & Vellinga, 2000; Yigitcanlar, 2008), trends
cited in most cities around the world but are more
intense in developing countries. As a solution to the
overcrowding and congestion of old cities and towns
and subsequent trends, the policy of constructing new
cities and towns has been rediscovered in developing
countries, decades after losing its popularity in the
North (Stewart, 1996). A striking example is that of
Egypt which is expanding into its vast desert land. This

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policy has been adopted since the 70s yet a few of the
new cities have sustained due to bad management and
unbalanced development which neglect social and
environmental aspects. As the policy of new developments on desert reclaimed lands is revived on a much
larger scale, it presents an opportunity to planners and
decision-makers to plan on a clean slate avoiding
problems of existing areas (Golany, 1976) and adopting
principles of sustainability, however, problems of
operationalising the concept remain.
Urban systems and structures have been dramatically
affected by rapid urbanisation in the last few decades
(Yeung, 2000), increasingly challenging planning
bodies worldwide to control urban growth in a
comprehensive and sustainable manner in an aim to
decrease adverse implications. This has been attempted
by the use of urban frameworks and models where
important progress has been made. The result is two
bodies of literature; that focusing on planning questions
of land use, transport and housing and another, in which
attempts are made to integrate the environmental
dimension. Very few attempts have been made building
on the concept of sustainability which emphasises the
importance of the three pillars; the environment, the
social aspects and the economic, despite a wide
suggestion at the international level that urban
sustainability is the best approach to guide present
and future growth of urban areas (Drakakis-Smith,
1995; Myllyla & Kuvaja, 2005; Rees & Wackernagel,
1996; Rodriguez, 2007; Satterthwaite, 1997; Spangenberg, Pfahl, & Deller, 2002). The methods deployed in
frameworks and models have been largely analytical or

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

for the sake of monitoring as will be shown in the


second part of the paper. There has been little
exploration in the field of sustainability evaluative
frameworks. This paper focuses on the development of
an evaluating tool for new developments, departing
from the focus of most literature; namely analytical
frameworks, into producing something workable on the
ground. An Urban Sustainable Management System
(USMS) is proposed that builds on an integrated
approach. The aim is to assist planners to make
comprehensive decisions that take into account all
dimensions of sustainability when planning for
new developments on desert reclaimed land in a
southern context.
The paper is organised in six parts. Following the
introduction, the second part presents the study area, a
region in Upper Egypt which has been scheduled for
major development activities. The third part is
dedicated to discussing the notion of urban sustainability reflecting on the concept and on challenges faced
in its implementation. The fourth part, which constitutes
the largest part of the paper, presents an Urban
Sustainable Management System following an integrated approach to tackle the challenges and limitations
facing sustainability in developing countries. The
system is then applied to the case study area. In the
fifth and sixth part, discussions and findings highlighting pressure points in new developments are
presented followed by conclusions.
2. Desert reclaimed land a revived agenda
Urbanization has occurred in many parts of Egypt
partly as a result of industrial and economic growth, and
mainly as a result of rising expectations of rural people
who have flocked to the cities seeking prosperity and
escape from low quality living standards. This
accompanied by a significant rise in population growth
has exacerbated the problem, where urban expansion is
at the expense of an annual 2530 thousand feddans (1
feddan  1 acre) of cultivated land (Abou-Kourin,
1999; El-Hefnawi, 2005). Thus, developing the desert,
which accounts for 95% of the Egyptian land seems to
be the logical solution to this vast urbanization
consuming the fertile lands of the Nile Valley.
The Governments response to the congestion
problems in the narrow Nile Valley had been to build
new cities and in the last two decades to embark on
mega national projects. An extensive network of new
urban centres was planned. In 1974, 14 new urban
centres were to be built according to the New
population map of Egypt plan. In 1981 only 2 new

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towns were built, by 1999, there were 17, and plans are
set to reach 27 satellite cities. As for mega national
projects, their aim as articulated by the state is: [they]
are to cope with the present and future aspirations and
achieve balanced development in different provinces as
well as optimal exploitation of resources and energies
(SIS, 2001). Current political uprisings and the 2011
Revolution which has toppled the Mubarak regime has
sparked fervent discussions about the development of
the country and experts (such as Director of the Centre
for Remote Sensing at Boston University, Prof. Farouk
ElBaz, renowned engineer Dr Mamdouh Hamza of
Hamza Associates and former Prime Minister Kamal El
Ganzouri of the mid-90s, reappointed in December
2011) re-opened the Western Desert development files,
proposing the cultivation of hundreds of thousands of
feddans in the desert and re-charting the map of
Egyptian urban development.
The objective of the desert reclamation as conceived
by previous governments and experts was to open new
venues of development in the sectors of agriculture,
industry, tourism and mining, in unpopulated areas with
exploitable natural resources, namely the region of the
Western desert, Southern Egypt and that of the Canal
and Sinai.
Egypt is not alone in embarking on mega national
projects to relieve urbanization problems. In many
developing economies, mega national projects have
been regarded as the answer to reduce poverty, rearrange population clusters and introduce new development and economic opportunities, much needed in
the regions encountering economic and social troubles.
Much of these projects involve diverting water to serve
regions suffering from drought, or severe water shortage. Pearce (2003, 2004) outlines projects spanning
around five continents: Asia, North America, Africa,
Australia and South Europe. Diversion of surplus water
from the Yangtze in China, linking 14 rivers in India,
diversion of rivers in Australia, canals to drive water to
areas suffering scarcity of water in Russia and Spain,
talks to buy contents of the Arctic rivers from Canada by
the US, and transferring water from the Oubangui River
the river Chari in Africa, are all striking examples.
The decision to divert large amounts of water to arid
areas is a common theme in these projects. The
Egyptian project differs in that it is diverting water to
uninhabited areas of the western desert, where it is
envisaged people would be encouraged to go, given
appropriate job opportunities are provided. In this
paper, it is argued that more elements affect peoples
choice to migrate to new developments, notwithstanding the importance of the economic dimension,

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R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Fig. 1. Mega National Projects in Egypt.

appropriate living conditions (more particularly that of


environmental and social aspects) are key to the appeal
of these new developments, elements sustainability as a
paradigm engages with.
The largest of the mega national projects is that of the
South Valley (Fig. 1). The project is based on two major
pivots; a 72-km Canal (to carry Nile water from Lake
Nasser to the new lands) and a giant lifting station to
pump water from Lake Nasser into the canal. The
project is planned to include the reclamation of 890,000
feddans of land for agriculture and host 2 million people
in some 55 rural units, 5 central villages and a central
town with all necessary infrastructure and services
(Schemm, 1999). Industry, mining, alternative energy
production, and possibly oil and gas production and
tourism, are part of the vision, with plans for desert
safaris, car rallies, conferences, and medical tourism
(Noeman, 2000). The Southern Valley project is taken
as a case study for desert reclamation projects in this
paper.
The author proposes an Urban Sustainable Management System (USMS) to manage this trend of expansion
into desert reclaimed land and the building of new
communities in the desert. The quest is not merely to
create new economic centres and to relieve the
congested areas of the Nile Valley, rather it is to build
a future which takes account of environmental and
social needs alongside economic drivers, for the sake of

current and future generations. The proposed system


builds on a belief in the imperative of sustainability of
any new development. The system is presented in
Section 4, but first the concept of urban sustainability
and methods developed to assess and operationalize it is
explored, to find (if obtainable) an interpretation of
sustainability that is sensitive to the Egyptian context
and an assessment method that meets the limitations and
challenges faced.
3. Sustainability and the planning of urban
expansion
The paradigm of sustainable development has been a
popular concept and a named challenge in the discipline
of urban planning in recent years, where policies and
strategies have emerged from the discontent and
concern with urban expansion (Ancell & ThompsonFawcett, 2008; Egger, 2006). It has triggered discussions about the sustainability of cities, the parameters
and forms of a sustainable city which led to the
development of a range of initiatives, strategies and
plans. Models of different visions for the sustainable
city as well as listed factors that need to be accounted
for in its planning have emerged. For example,
Haughton (1997, 1999) refers to four models which
vary in their colour from deep green which is
antipathetic to economic expansion, to light green

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

which promotes balancing environmental and economic


development imperatives. The deep green self-reliant
city embraces intensive internalisation of economic and
environmental activities, the second model encourages
redesigning the city which entails planning for compact,
energy sufficient regions. A light green model is the
externally dependent city, which embraces excessive
externalisation of environmental costs, buying-in
additional carrying capacity which some find unethical, and the fourth model is seen as a moderate green
approach called the fair share city which balances needs
and rights equitably, with regulated flows of environmental value and compensatory systems. Kenworthy
(2006) summarises 10 critical factors that place the
nexus between transport and urban form at the heart of
developing a sustainable city; compact, mixed-use
urban form, well-defined higher-density, humanoriented centres, priority to the development of superior
public transport systems and conditions for nonmotorized modes, with minimal road capacity
increases, and protection of the citys natural areas
and food-producing capacity. These factors form a
framework in which everything else is embedded and
Kenworthy maintains that if they are not addressed only
marginal changes in urban sustainability can be made.
Beyond theorising models and proposing critical
dimensions of the sustainable city, there seems to be
no agreement on an exemplar sustainable city or
development, so rightly so, There is no universal
archetype, the sustainable city, but thousands of
possible sustainable cities, for each city has unique
historical, cultural, political and environmental circumstances (Basiago, 1999, p. 145).
There are competing conceptions of sustainable
cities (Guy & Marvin, 1999; Radovic, 2009). Perhaps,
the predicament lies in defining the concept of
sustainability itself. It is quite a powerful idea;
encapsulating many expectations to deliver management of resources, land use, participation in decision
making and social justice in the outcomes (Brown,
2000; Wild, 2000). Beatley and Manning (1997)
comment that there is a general sense that sustainability
is a good thing, but its meaning not immediately
obvious, they add that sustainability and sustainable
development require definition and elaboration, as do
terms such as freedom, justice or quality of life. Pugh
(1996) explains that the definition and conceptual
analysis of sustainability has undergone much refinement and elaboration since the late 1980s. He
distinguishes economic, social and environmental
sustainability, where economic sustainability is understood as generating a maximum flow of economic

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welfare whilst maintaining the stock of assets, including


environmental assets; social sustainability is people
oriented, identified with the stability and cultural
diversity of social systems; and environmental sustainability refers to the preservation, the resilience and the
adaptation of physical and biological systems.
Campbell (1996) regards the broad embrace of
sustainability in optimism, for as an idea it has become
hegemonic, an accepted meta narrative, almost certain
to be integrated into any future scenario of development
and as such, should neither be surprised that no
definition has been agreed upon, nor fear that this
reveals a fundamental flaw in the concept. Although the
ambiguity of the concept will likely remain (Bentivegna, Curwell, Deakin, Lombardi, & Nijkamp, 2002;
Curwell, Deakin, & Symes, 2005; Rees, 2001),
questioning and exploring what it means sharpens the
debate and opens opportunities for critical thinking
about the future we influentially shape (Beatley &
Manning, 1997; Campbell, 1996). Despite troubles of
defining the concept, developing pathways towards
sustainable urban development has been one of the most
crucial topics in recent years (Newton, 2008). Hence, it
can be argued that urban sustainability is very much
open to different interpretations depending on the
context and circumstances which shape the understanding of the concept, define the parameters and
limitations, and most importantly influence the operationalisation of the concept.
3.1. Operationalisation of urban sustainability
Historically the fields of urban planning and city
management have been concerned with zoning, land
use, the channelling of growth and the systematic
provision of infrastructure (Gappert, 1989). In the next
decades urban planning and city management will need
to be preoccupied with the impact of cities on the
environment and their contribution to global environmental solutions, as traditional urban management
practices lack comprehensiveness required by sustainability (Jones, Tauleelo, & Kohlhase, 2002). Changing
the way in which people and industries behave is a
fundamental requirement of sustainable development,
at global and local levels. Changes are also required to
the way in which cities are governed and to the ways in
which people acknowledge and respond to their
individual responsibilities for environmental stewardship, both for their immediate locality and for the global
environment (Haughton & Hunter, 1994).
With a shift towards the rhetoric and values of
sustainability, there is an acceptance of the imperative

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that cities need to be sustainable (Jenks & Dempsey,


2005) and guidance as to what the sustainable city
should consist of have emerged. This is provided by the
suggested initiatives for sustainable urban management
from Agenda 21 (Basiago, 1999; Quarrie, 1992), the
WHO recommendations for a healthy city and for
strengthening the management of urban development
(Barton & Tsourou, 2000; Devuyst, 2001a; World
Health Organization, 1991), policies adopted with long
term sustainability as its focus (Beatley, 2000; European
Commission, 2001; Sorensen, Marcotullio, & Grant,
2004), factors and aims of a sustainable city (see
Dimensions of the Eco-city by Kenworthy, 2006;
Sustainable City Manifesto by Haughton & Hunter,
1994), and the recent recognition of the severity of
climate change and calls for urban policies and holistic
area-based approaches (IPCC, 2007). However, an
approach to adopt and implement these by local
authorities and governments is far from clear, confronted with obscurities of measurement.
Keen interest in techniques for measuring sustainability, evaluating policies and monitoring progress has
been expressed by governments and public agencies
over the past few decades. In response, many academics
and research groups have devoted their research to the
development of methodologies, techniques and procedures, often conceived as tool boxes for implementing
sustainable development (Owens & Cowell, 2002).
Different approaches have been developed; these
include assessment techniques, indicators, audits,
footprint studies and ecological accounts (Munda,
2001; Rydin, Holman, & Wolff, 2003, Tanguay,
Rajaonson, Lefebvre, & Lanoie, 2009), all have been
viewed in terms of operationalising sustainability
translating a concept that is presumed to be agreed in
principle into something workable on the ground
(Owens & Cowell, 2002, p. 49). Radovic (2009) argues
that implementation through action is key to the
realization of true sustainability. Some of the models
and frameworks which employ the approaches mentioned above in various degrees are discussed below.
3.2. Existing models and systems
Attempts for sustainable development planning in
cities have followed different approaches including
multi-criteria analysis, contingent valuation, and risk
assessment (Deakin, Vreeker, & Curwell, 2009;
Shiftan, Kaplan, & Hakkert, 2003). Efforts in city
management have triggered much notable research in
the field resulting in models and management systems,
however, they focus on one aspect of sustainable

planning such as environmental planning, physical


planning or economic-ecological planning. For example, models presented by Leach, Bauen, & Lucas
(1997), Alberti (1999), Shane and Graedel (2000),
Harmaajarvi (2000), and Yoon and Lee (2003); focus
largely on the environmental dimension of urban
sustainability. Models presented by Guangyue and
Xiaochun (2009), Borrego et al. (2005), Noth, Borning,
and Waddell (2003), Farrow and Winograd (2001), and
Churchill and Baetz (1999), focus on the spatial along
with physical aspects of urban sustainability in order to
simulate the urban processes. Other examples investigate the balance between environmental and economic
performances of urban development (see Button, 2002;
Thinh, Arlt, Heber, Hennersdorf, & Lehmann, 2002;
Verhoef & Nijkamp, 2002) and possible conflicts of
aiming towards sustainability on a global versus a local
scale (see Egger, 2006).
At first glance, it seems that there are many studies
that address the operationalisation of urban sustainability. However, two common trends were observed.
First, most focus on one aspect of sustainability rather
than all three dimensions, such as the physical and
economic infrastructure of cities (Rotmans et al., 2000)
or the environment, specifically air quality and water
management. Only a few scholars have attempted to
integrate all dimensions of sustainability, such as
Rotmans et al. (2000) who suggest an integrated city
planning framework, Ravetz (2000) who presents a
prototype integrated sustainable cities assessment
method and Wiek and Binder (2005) who propose a
sustainability assessment tool for city-regions; an
approach to constructing Sustainability Solution
Spaces for decision-making. The tools offer different
conceptual frameworks for the sustainability assessment of city-regions. These and other urban planning
models consist of a modelling framework linked with a
set of indicators by which the implications of city
patterns can be assessed.
Secondly, due to acknowledged difficulties of
technical support, manageability of data and availability
of data, a limited set of issues are considered to reduce
models to a manageable size. Although existing data is
far more advanced in developed countries over
developing countries, the issue of quantification of
indicators remains a difficulty when confronted by the
complexities of the conceptual frameworks associated
with urban sustainability, demanding in turn compromises and the consideration of a limited number of
elements and characteristics to be investigated. Thus at
the level of conceptual framework development, the
models consider a full range of parameters, however at

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the operationalisation level, these parameters are


narrowed down and only a few are finally included in
the implementation phase.
These tools have mostly been prepared to assess
cities in the North, which share similar concerns and
function in related environments where exchange of
knowledge, democratic participation and notions of
governance prevail. Pfeffer, Baud, Denis, Scott, and
Sydenstricker-Neto (2010), Lombardi and Stanghellini
(2009), Binnekamp, van Loon, and Piesla (2007), and
Lecca (2006) maintain that the participation of various
stakeholders is key to the development of tools and
systems. It is almost taken for granted that the
participation of stakeholders, channels for knowledge
sharing between different disciplines, data and trends
for environmental, social and economic indicators are
all in place and available to a certain degree. Limitations
and challenges expressed in the reviewed tools are
mostly technical, compromising the amount of data
processed and considered. Moreover, it is also generally
accepted that an understanding of the concept of
sustainability (holistic and intergenerational) has been
developed and acknowledged (Hamilton, Mitchell, &
Yli-Karjanmaa, 2002). It can be argued that in
developing countries these mechanisms and methods
are struggling and have not been fully established, and
that the common understanding of sustainability
incorporating the three pillars is far from established.
It is certainly the case in Egypt where sustainability has
merely environmental connotations, true democracy is
in its infancy, knowledge exchange is seen as a threat (to
individuals fearing indispensability and to society at
large fearing prosecution) and data is either nonexistent or unavailable to the public.
Hence, applying any of the developing tools or
systems in the Egyptian context is problematic.
Approaches and models to sustainable city planning
and management ought to be based on the context of the
area addressed, in accordance with challenges and
possibilities offered within. There is a pressing need for
such an approach for desert reclaimed land as many of
the desert reclamation projects have foundered in the
past. Critical assessment leading to proper management
and execution of new urban settlements is of crucial
importance for the future of urban growth in the
Egyptian context.
4. An Urban Sustainable Management System
The Urban Sustainable Management System
(USMS) developed in this paper is theoretically based
on sustainability at large and more specifically on

157

Integrated Assessment. Extension of environmental


assessment processes to include the three pillars
(economic, social and environmental criteria) has been
labelled integrated assessment (Pope, Annandale, &
Morison-Saunders, 2004). Eggenberger and Partidaro
(2000) and Schreider et al. (2001) explain the term
integration or holism where the whole is independent
and greater than the sum of the parts. Integration implies
that a new entity is created where new relationships
are established bearing on individual entities that have
specific characteristics and specific dynamics but in
combination act in a different way (Eggenberger &
Partidaro, 2000, p. 202).
This idea of integration is useful as a way to frame
and organise the environmental, social and economic
issues, whilst acknowledging that they are not separate
entities, but that they intertwine and interplay daily in a
complex system, resulting in the mixed fabric of the city
or region. The aim of integrated assessment is
articulated by Post, Kolhoff, and Velthuyse (1998, p.
50) it aspires to describe . . . the relations between the
human communities concerned, their economic organization and their actual resource base. It qualifies,
quantifies, and, as far as possible, values the effects of
proposed and alternative interventions on the three
(economic, social and natural) subsystems and their
intersystem relations. It attempts to identify beneficial
interventions and to fully expose unavoidable tradeoffs. Integrated assessment is thus an evolution of the
previous assessment approaches and in this description
lies the foundation of the work to be undertaken in this
paper, where alternatives of human developments are
explored inclusive of subsystems and intersystem
relationships, with an aim to expose pressure points
and tradeoffs of different elements within the economic,
social and natural resource bases of alternative
developments.
The re-emergence of the environmental agenda in
the 1990s triggered interest in measuring progress
towards the environment. Sets of measurable entities or
metrics evolved, these include Eco-Management and
Audit Scheme (EMAS), ISO 14001, Indicator Systems,
State of the Environment Reporting, Norms/standards,
targets (Devuyst, 2001b), Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In the field of urban planning many have
been grappling with the complexity of integration of the
physical, economic and social (Rotmans et al., 2000),
recently latching on to management with its emphasis
on efficiency (Davey, 1993; Yigitcanlar, 2008). Subsequent calls to develop management systems to serve
the sustainability quest and integrate tools such as

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Sustainable Development Indicators, Sustainability


Targets, Sustainability Reporting, etc. have emerged
(Devuyst, 2001b).
An integrated approach towards sustainability
beyond the environmental criteria; the focus of most
previous impact assessments is developed in this
paper, making use of management tools. Decisions to
embark on development projects in the Egyptian
context have been based traditionally on economic
feasibility studies or merely for political reasons
(Abdel Galil, 2007). Environmental Impact Assessments, although more commonly produced since 1994
(promulgation of the Egyptian Environment Law), is
not fully incorporated into the decision making
process. Comprehensive sustainability assessments
that take into account all environmental, economic
and social aspects of such developments are lacking in
the Egyptian context. As mentioned earlier, many of the
desert reclamation projects have foundered in the past
due to bad management and one might add because of
the limited consideration and assessment of issues
at hand.
The approach of combining integrated assessment
with management tools of indicators, scenarios and
targets is pursued in an attempt to operationalise the
concept of sustainability (see Fig. 2). These tools will
assist to explore relations between human communities, their economic organization and their natural
resource base.
Integrated assessment processes tend to use
simulation methods, and focus on communication
between different actors in the form of involvement or
participation. The former requires that data is
available, and in such an analysed form that what

remains is performing mathematical modelling in


terms of simulation or optimisation, and the latter
assumes that processes of participation and public
involvement are enacted, both of which are questionable in this case given the societal conditions and
the stage of developments. Hence the approach in the
research attempts to overcome the shortcomings of
data availability, knowledge sharing and infeasibility
of full scale participation, yet uphold multi-disciplinarity, analysis, synthesis, evaluation and integration
of the subsystems intertwining within a city-region;
all elements of IA (Rotmans, 1998), such that
new knowledge emerges which tests pre-conceptions
of desert development. Three scenarios will be
explored based on dominant economic bases, namely
agriculture, industry and tourism. An objective of the
study is to discover critical levels within each capital
(environmental, social and economic) resulting from
an emphasis on a particular dominant economic
base which will uncover conflicts, tensions and
pressure points resulting from the different types of
development.
4.1. Methodological approach
The USMS is built of three components: scenarios,
indicators and targets, each of which includes the three
dimensions of sustainability, namely the social,
environmental and economic dimensions. The approach
is carried out through four stages: (i) identification of
relevant economic, social and environmental indicators,
then (ii) three scenarios are constructed for urban
developments in the Southern Valley, (iii) targets
towards sustainable levels are set, and (iv) the final

Fig. 2. An integrated approach to urban sustainability management.

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stage is the assessment and evaluation of the different


scenarios.
(i) Indicator selection and organization (Section 4.3),
(ii) Scenario building, validation and analysis (Section
4.4),
(iii) Target setting (Section 4.5), and
(iv) Scenario assessment and evaluation (Section 4.6).
Each stage will be explained thoroughly after the
following section. The urban sustainability management system aims at providing decision-makers with a
tool to assess the socio-cultural, environmental and
economic impacts of relevance to urban development
patterns in a Southern context. The approach differs
from previous approaches in that the model aims to
evaluate different scenarios for proposed and hence
currently non existing developments as opposed to
cities of which sustainability problems are defined. This

159

process is more challenging as building scenarios


involves creative thinking and drawing upon experiences in other parts of the Egyptian urban context. By
evaluating the new developments under different
economic bases according to the three pillars of
sustainability, the Urban Sustainable Management
System will operationalise the concept of sustainability
based on a contextual understanding relevant to
developing countries and will uncover matters of
priority and critical issues in new developments (Fig. 3).
4.2. Methodological implications
The nature of the research is that of an interdisciplinary study, where knowledge needs to be
synthesised from diverse disciplines and different forms
of knowledge are included be they expert, sectoral, or
tacit knowledge (van Ewijk & Baud, 2009). Three
scenarios with different economic bases requires that

Fig. 3. Diagram of stages in the USMS.

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knowledge is compiled for agriculture, industry and


tourism in terms of current practices and sustainable
levels. Environmental, social and economic aspects for
each type of development in the South Valley are
essential information for the formation of the three
capitals of each development.
Such a task implies a quantitative research approach
which is largely dependent on figures and scientific
knowledge to represent the capitals. However, values
and experiences need to be accounted for as the success
of settlements, in terms of their sustainability, is very
much dependent on the incorporation of the values of
the inhabitants. Sustainability studies, although aiming
for objectivity, are usually subjective as the choice of
parameters and problem areas as well as targets fall to
an individual or a small team. To bring objectivity to an
inherently subjective process, transparency and justification of choices is important and crosschecking using a
multiplicity of sources validates the choices made.
To ensure that different groups opinions, needs and
aspirations are included and to capture the knowledge,
practices and experience of stakeholders often referred
to as tacit knowledge (Pfeffer, Baud, Denis, Scott, &
Sydenstricker-Neto, 2010; van Ewijk & Baud, 2009), a
consultation process using interviews was adopted.
Interviews are particularly useful as they allow the
understanding of the opinions and values interviewees
have about the topic as well as gaining access to their
expertise (McNamara, 1999). The individuals interviewed as part of this research cover a range of
disciplines and professions and they can be roughly
categorised in 3 groups; policy makers, academics and
experts, and stakeholders who involve business representatives in agriculture and residents of a newfound
village in the south valley. Of the third group, i.e.
stakeholders, small farmers on desert-reclaimed land in
the South Valley were interviewed in a focus group, a
mechanical engineer who worked in the construction of
the water pumping station for 4.5 years and agricultural
engineers representatives of an agricultural investor in
the area were also interviewed. Of the second group,
researchers in the Desert Research Centre one in water
resources and desert soils division and 2 researchers in
the socio-economic division; 4 academics with interests
in urban sustainability, desert landscape, urban planning
and environmental planning; a former UN consultant
for energy; an industrial engineering professor; an
independent environmental consultant specialised in
sustainable tourism; and also farmers from the Delta
were interviewed. Of the first group a senior planner in
the South Valley project; governmental officials
Deputy Head of the General Organization for Physical

Planning, and Head of Tourism Development Authority


in Upper Egypt were interviewed.
The inputs from the interviewing process were used
in different ways. The stakeholders mainly provided an
insight into characteristics of prospective inhabitants of
the area and what they perceived as priority issues. The
policy makers, academics and experts provided a
validation of the scenarios and specialised expertise for
the indicator and target selection and organisation. Two
rounds of interviewing was conducted, the first aimed at
exploring the meaning of sustainability to the interviewees and their perception of the new developments
and the parameters they consider of importance for
these developments to sustain. The second interview
was set to acquire feedback on the scenarios, where the
interviewees were asked if the events laid out in the
scenarios are plausible and if any of the envisaged
developments would change given the economic base
was to be altered. The interviews to that extent act as a
means to challenge/affirm assumptions of the
researcher as well as ensure that the process does not
reflect a single opinion.
Hence, the research is based more on a qualitative
approach. The consultation process is considered an
important part to uncover assumptions and ensure that
the system is built with transparency. Reasoning and
informed judgements are central features of the work to
address uncertainty and indeterminacy in assigning
figures and values. As Campbell (2006, p. 102) points
out, the use of judgement does not necessarily imply
that the process is arbitrary or dependent on untutored
intuition, Good judgement is founded upon knowledge, understanding and experience. This course of
action has been carried out throughout the assessment,
target formulation and evaluation, in as transparent a
manner as possible. The researcher maintains that this
method can provide a solution to the problems
encountered of data unavailability and uncertainty of
future patterns, and that by conducting the method in
transparency through verification and validation, the
research can contribute to methodological approaches
to operationalise sustainability within a context of
uncertainty.
4.3. Indicator selection and organisation
The aim is to select a set based on location-specific
circumstances that reflect the concerns of urban
developments in the Southern Valley of Egypt while
having resonance with international criteria. The
indicators need to reflect the needs of prospective
inhabitants, reflect sustainabilitys multifaceted nature

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and as an integral part of the proposed USMS, provide


required holistic information about a newly built urban
development to enable its sustainability assessment and
evaluation.
Existing sets of indicators whether national or
international provide information on different environmental and economic elements, and are widely used and
accepted. The reviewed sets include those developed by
OECD, CSD, UN-HABITAT, WHO, as well as indices
such as ESI (Environmental Sustainability Index), CDI
(City Development Index), the EU local sustainability
indicators, along with local national sets. It can be
deduced that international sets are generic in nature
rather than providing a focused analysis and study of the
urban development, they reflect diverse stances they
take on various aspects of sustainability, are mainly
national in scope and when they monitor trends at the
urban scale, place different degrees of emphasis on the
socio-economic or environmental concerns. Hence,
they do not provide a comprehensive set of indicators to
measure the sustainability of an urban development. On
the other hand, examples of local sets are mostly
produced by European or American localities, having a
different context than developing countries, and thus do
not reflect concerns in the research region of the South
Valley. In order to base the indicators on local needs, a
study of the background of the area was conducted as
well as researching the sources, characteristics and
needs of the communities to inhabit the new urban
developments in the South Valley.
There is a need for a framework to organise a set of
urban indicators to allow for the analysis of indicators
and present the diverse information in a meaningful
form. Drawing on frameworks by OConnor (1995), De
Kruijf and Van Vuuren (1998), Meadows (2001), and
Zoeteman (2004) which categorise indicators in terms
of three capitals and exchanges between them, a
framework is used based on the notion that an urban
development can be seen as a collection of interrelated
stocks and flows which indicate both the quantity and
quality (Rotmans et al., 2000). The urban indicator
framework is represented by a triangular model built up
of three capital forms: socio-cultural, economic and
ecological capital. Each capital has main components,
which are then broken down into sub-components and
subsequently expressed in terms of indicators. The
indicators are further organised according to four levels
of needs, following Maslows hierarchy of needs.
Maslow is a leading humanistic psychologist who set up
a hierarchic theory of needs often represented as a
pyramid, where he defined four levels of basic needs;
physiological needs, safety needs, needs of love,

161

affection and belongingness and finally needs for


esteem (Simons, Irwin, & Drinnien, 1987). Beyond
these needs, higher levels of needs exist, which Maslow
termed self-actualizing needs, which are the needs to
fulfil oneself and become all that one is capable of
becoming. Following this hierarchic theory, the
indicators have been prioritised to express the needs
of survival (given 1st priority), sustenance (2nd
priority), stabilisation and progression of the individuals and communities (3rd and 4th priority).
An understanding of the needs and aspirations of
prospective inhabitants and of sustainability through
interviews and social studies enabled to prioritise
elements within the three capitals, and question how
sustainability is being framed and interpreted. Based on
a deduction that the majority of rural migrants are
driven by job aspirations, aiming to own land which
defines their status among peers, a job opportunity was
considered the main drive for all, making job security
and factors which jeopardise them of high priority.
Another important aspect for settlers identified by
interviewees was services, which came second to job
opportunities. The environment was merely seen as a
catalyst by many, except for planners and environmentalists, however when prompted the links to wellbeing
could be made. Supported by findings of the research
and the review of different sets, indicators are selected
such that they are specific to a locality and predictive in
nature to provide information about the future state of
relevant social, economic and environmental variables.
Measures of quantitative and qualitative values are
sought to describe and evaluate the nature of the human
settlements. There are 18 core components, 40 subcomponents and 69 indicators, all priority ranked (see
Section 4.5). In order to discover pressure points within
the environmental, social and economic systems within
a region, the indicators shall not be aggregated into a
single index, this is further explained in Section 4.5.
The social capital has six components: shelter,
safety, health, equity, education and population measured by 25 indicators. Finding an appropriate shelter is
of high priority when a person sets out to inhabit a new
urban development. Safety indicates safe circumstances, stability and protection. Health and primary
health care are important elements of which drinking
water has been ranked highly as an element of human
survival. Equity in the society and overcoming
alienation of certain groups whether through poverty
or gender is of interest in this component. Education is
ranked third on the needs priority list given the
importance of education and the strong link between
securing a job and the persons level of education, basic

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education is ranked second, whereas other indicators are


ranked as third. Population has two sub-components;
population change and cultural identity where the latter
has been ranked third as it is important for the cohesion
and self esteem of a community.
The ecological capital has six components: atmosphere, water, land, biodiversity, noise and urban spaces
measured by 24 indicators. Atmospheres air quality is
ranked as first in the needs priority list as it is of
immediate importance for the human sustenance. Other
sub-components include climate change and ozone
layer depletion. Water, ranked first, has two subcomponents; water quantity and water quality. Land
has two sub-components in the context of the South
Valley project; agriculture and urbanization. Industrial
activities and tourism impacts are taken account of in
other indicators. Biodiversity helps to ensure the
continuous performance of natural ecological processes. More than 40% of the worlds economy and
about 80% of the needs of the worlds poor are
dependent upon biological diversity (CSD, 2001).
Noise levels have to be acceptable and are measured
by the percentage of population exposed to noise above
the standards. Urban spaces, ranked fourth in the needs
priority list, refer to open spaces, which should be
shaded either by their shape and proximity to buildings
or by green elements which also act as wind and sand
screens as well as having a positive psychological
effect.
Finally, the economic capital has six components:
infrastructure, energy, consumption and production
patterns, labour market, economic structure and tourism
sector, measured by 18 indicators. Infrastructure
works are partially undertaken by the Government of
Egypt to set the grounds for the investors to implement
their businesses. This component ranked first has two
subcomponents; services and roads. Energy is vital for
the economic activities. It has two sub-components;
renewable energy and energy efficiency. Consumption
and production patterns, an indicator used by the CSD
has been adapted to reflect issues of concern at the local
level. It has three sub-components; material consumption, waste generation and management and transportation. The Labour markets structure is an important
indicator of the share of different economic activities in
the provision of job opportunities. The Economic
structure ranked third, reflects the diversity of
economic sectors within the development measured
by the percentage of different economic sectors, thus
indicating the share of each sector in the local economy.
Tourism sector is the last core component in the
economic capital and has been singled due to its

possible effects on the economy, where a few have


advocated that it be the sole economic base for the
development rather than agriculture.
The indicators are used to assess alternative
development scenarios in the South Valley Region of
Egypt. Scenario building is the second stage in the
USMS. The scenarios are sequences of images of the
future, which contain a narrative and a quantitative
analytical component. This is further explained in the
next section.
4.4. Scenario building and analysis
Thinking about the future is often done by the
development of scenarios. Scenarios can be useful tools
to help us frame our key considerations and assumptions, and to identify gaps, inconsistencies and
ignorance in a systematic way. They can help us to
explore different and new perspectives and thereby
challenge conventional thinking, they paint pictures of
possible futures and explore the different outcomes that
might result if basic assumptions are changed (Rotmans, 1998; Rotmans et al., 2000). They are also useful
where dominant trends are part of the problem (Owens
& Driffill, 2008). Thus scenarios can help us to expand
our capacity to cope with complexity and uncertainty
and in this way analysis may facilitate decision making
processes (Lee, 2006; Rotmans & van Asselt, 2000).
Narrative scenarios are usually deployed in cases where
data is weak or missing and are helpful to qualitatively
describe pathways into the future.
An activity based scenario development is adopted.
The activity based approach visualizes three possible
types of settlements in the Southern Valley region;
agriculture based development, industrial based development and services based development (tourism). A
narrative was sewn allowing for creative and imaginative thinking, yet within plausible viable boundaries.
Each scenario includes social, economic and environmental aspects; considers different sectors, problems
and scales consistently; is coherent, plausible and
challenging; provides a strong narrative as well as a
quantitative component. Focusing on an activity
enables the examination of impacts a certain economic
base has, in terms of its sustainability, i.e. its effects on
the social, environmental and economic structure of a
region. This identifies and sheds light on critical issues
within each base so as to explore which base, if any,
would provide a sustainable urban development in the
Southern Valley region, and if any base would achieve
the objectives and targets of sustainability within an
urban development.

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However, to grapple with many details at once would


prove problematic. Thus, a set of components, which
can be identified as problem areas or fields provide the
structure upon which a scenario can be explored. These
are referred to as component scenarios (adapted from
Masser, Sviden, & Wegener, 1992). The scenarios were
structured according to six components:
1. POPULATION; source, types, densities, fertility/mortality rates, age structure.
2. LIFE-STYLES; class groups, facilities use/availability/
accessibility.
3. ECONOMY; jobs, labour market, male/female employment.
4. ENVIRONMENT; water, sanitation, air quality, temperature, waste management, desert ecology/ typography/biodiversity.
5. URBAN AND RURAL PROFILE; open-spaces, industrial
areas, housing, fields, services.
6. TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS; goods and passenger, communication services.
These components were used to structure the
scenario narrative and the scenario analysis. The
scenario narrative draws together all aspects of concern
within a new development; environmental, social and
economic and the interrelations between them in a
plausible narrative, which was subjected to a validation
process by consulting experts in urban planning,
academics and officials, environmental activists, desert
development researchers and industrialists. As such, the
scenarios were developed in an iterative way involving
various opinions. The scenario analysis paves the way
between the narrative and the quantitative nature of the
indicators as it draws out measurable figures from the
narrative. As a result, patterns are deduced which feed
into the indicator lists, as will be shown in stage four of
the system.
In the following paragraphs, the narratives of the
Agricultural, Industrial and Service scenarios will be
briefly presented followed by their analysis.
4.4.1. Scenario narratives
4.4.1.1. Scenario I narrative an agricultural based
development. Assumptions: Large enterprises cultivating large areas of land will be combined with small
farms developed by individuals. Food packaging and
light industries to serve the urban development
(carpentry, car repair workshops, etc.) will develop.
Background information: Several studies conducted
on land and water resources have revealed that the soil is
fertile and the area has more than one water resource

163

(surface and subterranean). Soil sampling and land


survey showed that a total of 516,000 feddans were
highly cultivable and 1.5 million fairly cultivable
(Egypt Daily News, 2001).
Surface water is to be conveyed to the area through
the Sheikh Zayed Canal that receives its water via a
pumping station from Lake Nasser. The canal is planned
to reach Paris Oasis in the North travelling 350 km. The
first phase of 68 km is completed where four sub-canals
feed water to four groups of land which amount to
540,000 feddans as shown in Fig. 4, where the dark
colour is the symbol for a first phase and higher quality
of soil. As for crop structure, the area is suitable for
growing palms of different types, medicinal herbs and
winter vegetables. The long warm winter season allows
for 3 rotations of crops and gives the area a competitive
advantage where produce can reach international
markets earlier than other producers (from an interview
with the chief engineer at Kadco farms).
Introduction: Offshore Lake Nasser, the pump
station is carrying the water into the canals, the lifeline
for the agricultural fields and farms some 50 km away.
How different this place looks, considering that four
decades ago it was part of the western desert and people
would only pass this part on their way to the oasis in the
north. There are villages and green fields expanding
over hundreds of feddans around four branches feeding
off the main canal. This is now home to the inhabitants
of the South Valley region, once migrants to the area. At
the point of convergence of the four branches is the New
Toshka City, the closest urban development to the
surrounding villages. The region is popular for the
production of vegetables, fruits and medicinal herbs and
exporting the products worldwide. The environment is
challenging, but the inhabitants have grown accustomed
to the weather and seasonal changes and have adapted
their life styles accordingly.
1. POPULATION: The source of population is mainly from
the congested cities of the Nile Valley in South Upper
Egypt and The Delta. The population is mostly young
men. Family households are of 5 members. The area
attracts basic and secondary vocational educated
members. Mortality rates are less than home villages
due to cleaner water.
2. LIFE-STYLES: There is a large gap between the life
styles of the owners of large farms (luxurious), the
small and medium-sized investors and the labour
force. Most small and medium-sized investors
constitute the upper middle class and work in the
packaging industry and supporting industries to the
large cultivated fields. Whereas, the middle and

164

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Fig. 4. Map of the South Valley project showing different development scales.
Source: Adapted from The GOPP, The Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Communities (1999).

poorer households are involved with cultivating


small areas of land around wells and operating small
farms, which provide the domestic needs of the area.
Due to the non-labour intensive nature of agriculture,
households are smaller and more women tend to
work from home at times other than harvesting
seasons. More children attend school, basic and
vocational education remain the target as need rises
for skilled labour, while few aim for university
education. Travel is limited to special occasions
visiting origin villages to meet with extended family.
3. ECONOMY: Agriculture is the main sector of employment in the region, however, in the city it only
accounts for a fifth of the employment, where the
main sector of employment is agro industries. Crops
of high productivity (some genetically modified),
high revenue and low demand for water were chosen
with an aim for export. A few small farms breed
animals for commercial purposes, especially in
female-headed households. A rising sector is freight
transport and warehousing, as land and the labour
force are relatively cheap. Each settlement has a
service that is unique to it which encouraged interdependency and exchange of trade between the rural
units. Of the construction force who settled, most of

them are located in the north western part (the last of


the areas to be built in the region). Thus, that area is
inhabited by most of the skilled workforce but they
often work in any of the other areas in the region.
Small banking branches for loans are available in the
centres of the region.
4. ENVIRONMENT: Water is a vital resource for the whole
development, it was not polluted by chemical and
biological impurities and had been subject to strict
legislation in the area. A percentage of the water had
to be reused and fields maintained priority over
households but used sprinkler and drip irrigation.
Rationing was accepted and water pricing challenged
any assumptions that water was an abundant
commodity. Waste management also regulated by
law helped to avoid the hazards of pollution.
However, sanitation poses a threat as cost delayed
its implementation and local authorities concentrated
their pollution abatement efforts on the agricultural
activities and light industries.
Household energy demand was reduced by
sustainable design diminishing need for air-conditioning. Energy required for households and agriculture was to be provided by solar, hydroelectric and
limited wind energy techniques. Fuel was used for

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

light industries and transport. Pollution from private


transportation was negligible as use was limited due
to proximity of activities. However, the desert
ecology was affected as some of the species were
lost to the urbanization of the region. The topography
of the area has been greatly changed; flattened for
agricultural pastures, and the trees planted on the
edges to prevent the sand storms from wrecking the
establishments have affected the other side of the
desert and the formation of sand dunes.
5. URBAN AND RURAL PROFILE: The urban pattern is
compact as a response to the harsh environment. The
buildings are mostly adjoined, the streets organic in
shape to prevent the creation of wind tunnels and the
sidewalks are shaded by trees. Open-spaces are small
in scale and take the form of patios to provide shade
and a cool pleasant environment. Assembly halls,
cultural centres and shopping malls are concentrated
in the city. Rural centres have small shops, traditional
cafes, a clinic and primary schools are used for
evening and summer activities acting as a community
centre successfully used to welcome new settlers,
overcoming feelings of loneliness and allienation.
Households vary; middle and economy class 5member households are located in proximity to the
fields, grouped single households are further distanced closer to the industrial zone and few luxury
houses are in the city.
6. TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS: Road vehicles are
the main mean of transportation. People depend on
private mini buses to move around in the region.
Freight vehicles can be considered as the main cause
of problem in the area as roads were not designed to
absorb the high density of freight vehicles. A railway
should have been installed throughout the region to
facilitate the transfer of goods to nearby freight
airports.
As has been shown, the narrative explores the future
settlement of the area, making assumptions explicit.
The settlements grow through a transition of three
periods: the migration period, the settling period and
finally the stabilization and inhabitancy period (GOPP,
1999). The estimates provided are post the transition
period, i.e. the settlements have reached stabilization
(assumed to be after 40 years).
4.4.1.2. Scenario II narrative an industrial based
development. Assumptions: Heavy industries are dispersed in the region situated at the source of raw
materials (see Fig. 5), for example chemical, fertilizers
plant in Abou tartour, cement factory in North West

165

Toshka, steel and iron in Aswan, quarries in Gebel


Kamel, Gebel Owainat, Bir Tarafawi and Bir Safsaf,
marble and granite factories are located in Bir Tarafawi,
and ceramics located in North Toshka.
Background information: The South Valley possesses many building materials especially limestone
which covers 50% of the area (120 billion m3), which is
ideal for cement production. Parasitis sand (tafiliate) is
also present in large quantities (3 million m3) and is of
good quality where it includes silica of up to 68% and
aluminium oxide of up to 26% thus allowing the
production of cement, tafiliate bricks and ceramics.
Raw phosphorus which can be used in the fertilizers
manufacturing is available (1000 million m3) as well as
Kaolin (16.5 million m3) (Azam, 1989 cited in AbouKourin, 1999). Red and pink granite are found in Abou
Bayan el Bahary, Tarafawy well and Safsaf well and in
Khafra quarries north west Abou Simbel city and large
quantities of marble have been discovered in Gabal Al
Owainat and Gabal Kamel in the far south west (Al
Kharbotly & Abdel Aaty, 1999). Also, Gold in Kamel
Mountain is expected to yield a production of 100,000
ounces/annum (Bahr et al., 1998).
Introduction: Many industries founded in the area
due to the wealth of metallurgical and mineral
resources. The resources are dispersed in the region,
dictating the form and type of settlements. Camps are
temporarily set up at some excavation locations.
Permanent housing is located in the city of Toshka
and a few towns that have emerged on the main roads.
Toshka city acts as a node for business services to the
dispersed industrial activities that take place north and
south west of the city. Residential settlements are
located at some distance from the industrial sites. It was
recommended for health reasons that industrial sites be
located at a 40 km distance from the boundaries of
settlements (Safwat, 1997). Rail networks to Aswan
were improved to move products to the national markets
and export nodes.
1. POPULATION: The launching of the industrial activities
in the region attracted a great number of young
technicians and workers who frequently moved.
Most were vocation educated, specialised in specific
industries. Managers and engineers were university
graduates. Fertility rates are lower than the national
average, and the ratio of family households is much
less than single households. The older members of
the work force left their families behind in their
hometowns and do not constitute a significant
number. Mortality rates are higher than average.
The demographic form is more of a pyramid shape,

166

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Fig. 5. Metallurgical resources in the area.


Source: Adapted from Vivian (2000).

slightly bulky in the middle as the young workforce


represent the larger group in the area, with an
increasing group of children and a slightly increased
number of elderly people.
2. LIFE STYLES: A few managerial personnel inhabit
luxury housing in the Toshka city and have adapted
the place to all their needs. They developed a small
club, with different activities as a business centre, a
health club, golf courses, squash courts and some
relaxing lounges. Middle class and poorer households make up the majority of the work force, which
rarely spend time in the towns due to demanding
working hours and shifts. Commercial and entertainment facilities are grouped in the centres of the towns
and small cultural centres provide activities for the
young in the afternoons and advice and support for
womens activities in the mornings. Women rarely
work in the industrial plants and have subsequently
excelled in crafts and small businesses run from
home, even horticulture and poultry. Streets and open
spaces are fairly quiet all week except at school
times, but pick up pace in the weekends where
household produce is sold. Schools and institutes

teach syllabuses oriented towards industry and


manual skills.
3. ECONOMY: Industry is the main sector of employment
in the region, and is followed by freight transportation and warehousing which is a growing sector.
Subcontracting is common, supporting small businesses. The service economy grew, improving
communication infrastructure and financial services
are growing. Crafts produce of the area is gaining
more interest.
4. ENVIRONMENT: Heavy industries such as fertilizer
production and cement and steel taking place in the
South Valley area cause pollution. Measures have
been taken and legislation put in place to reduce the
effects of these industries on the surrounding
environment, nonetheless gaseous emissions and
particulates released as well as illegal dumping of
industrial waste in desert pits are affecting air quality,
ground water and soil composition. These have
health implications, particularly air pollution as
green belts were discarded as an option by local
authorities for cost reasons. Sanitation networks for
residential areas are lagging behind, and residents

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

devise their own means as resources were directed to


industrial areas were wastewater reuse was
demanded by law. Buildings and residential compounds were designed with orientation and passive
energy in mind. Industries depended on natural gas as
a source of energy. The urbanization of the region,
heavy freight transport and industrial waste had an
adverse effect on the biodiversity as species were
affected by the introduction of new elements in the
air, water and soil.
5. URBAN AND RURAL PROFILE: Housing and services are
situated in the urban and rural developments while
the industries are dispersed around the region. This
had the impact of placing demand for the widespread
of roads across the desert, which proved problematic
as it absorbed huge amounts of investment. The
towns are small in size and land is mainly for housing
and supporting services for the communities. Each
settlement lacks a personal identity, and agglomerations were formed, hosting groups coming from one
place or another of the country.
6. TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS: Transport and
communications are vital aspects for successful
business and industry. It took years for the
government, local authorities and investors to
upgrade and improve the existing framework. Roads
primarily catering for freight reaching the railway
network and ports were built. Also, ports were built
on the Red Sea coast to facilitate export to
neighbouring countries, and railway networks connected the areas to the ports which created other job
opportunities in the south of the country and
improved the economic base of the region. Transportation for inhabitants was a struggle however,
communication facilities benefited all.
4.4.1.3. Scenario III narrative a tourism based
development. Assumptions: Special forms of tourism
developed building on the areas environment and
hotels and accommodation to support tourism in the
area as well as surrounding towns were built.
Background information: The area has high potential
for tourism where different suggested activities are:
winter tourism, sightseeing of spectacular sand dunes
and natural views, healing and curing, cultural and
historical tourism benefiting of the antiquities and
monuments from Palaeolithic and Neolithic era. The
Western desert holds great promise to prehistoric
archaeology (Lane, 2000). Also, research into the
natural features of the desert of protected areas, rare
species and uninterrupted sand dunes would attract
researchers. One of the key areas identified on the east

167

bank of the Nile is the Allaqi valley. It is considered a


protected area as it contains many natural features. 92
different types of plants have been recorded (ever
greens, and annual), 15 types of mammals and 16 types
of birds. The Nubian sea is another exceptional site.
Other areas rich with tourism resources include
Klabsha, Girf Hussein, Al Soubou & Amdan, Ibrim
and Abu Simbel. The ministry of tourism has plans to
build 34 resorts with a capacity of 4220 rooms
(comparable to the existing 3939 in Luxor and 2789
in Aswan).
Introduction: It was hard to imagine at the beginning
that endless expanses of desert land had much to offer to
the tourism field. The shores of Nasser Lake were an
untapped resource of the region from a tourism
perspective. Nile cruises in the area were the starting
point that gave way to the construction of a marina, an
urban village to cater for the cruises and subsequently
more settlements. Urban villages were home to
migrants to the area who supported the growing tourism
industry. They were situated at some 20 km away from
the Lake, off highly valuable land snatched by resorts.
The chain of four oases, each 50100 km across, floored
by rock platforms, gravel plains and shifting sands
(Waltham, 2001) encouraged excursions and safaris to
marvel at the unique character of each, ranging from
black basalt topped dunes, to giant white chalk
monoliths, to farmlands and hot springs. Excursions
to the neighbouring oasis would usually pass across the
urban villages as part of their route, promoting sales of
local artefacts and products.
1. POPULATION: There is a mix of people inhabiting the
area. Those working in tourism; young men and
equally young women, make up the staff and
managers of the hospitality industry. Only a few
are married and have brought their young families.
Settlers have come to the area seeking job
opportunities in trade, transportation and food supply
supporting the tourism sector. Bedouins; inhabitants
of the western desert act as guides to the safaris.
Locals of the eastern desert famous for breeding
cattle and camels engage with the area. Also local
Nubians who have not left in the 1950s are eager to
reclaim their land. Fertility rates vary between
groups, where the latter three have larger families.
Mortality rates are lower than the national average.
2. LIFESTYLES: The staff were consumed in their work,
assuming several roles and live in shared apartments
in close urban villages. This type of housing was
hardly acceptable even though it had separate male
and female quarters. Locals and settlers live farther,

168

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

where locals have cultural norms that they abide by


and settlers bring their habits from origin of
migration but are more adaptable to change. As
interaction increased between locals and settlers,
more of the formers children attended school.
Tourism institutes had more entrants each year. Of
a temporary nature were researchers, either archaeologists who stayed only for months or naturists who
were assisting the governments plans to establish
natural protectorates, staying for longer periods.
3. ECONOMY: Tourism is the main sector of employment
in the region. Job opportunities are available in
various fields directly and indirectly linked to
tourism; such as catering, entertainment, accommodation, transport, trade, tours, etc. Cooperation
between neighbouring local authorities encourage
tourists to flow between various geographical sites
(see Fig. 6). Unemployment is low as jobs created are

proportionate to the labour available. Subsidies


offered by the government encouraged investors as
well as cheap labour, which balances the public
private investments made in the infrastructure.
4. ENVIRONMENT: The Western Desert is an enormous
and very barren wilderness except for the chain of
four oases, enriched with water sources and desert
flora. A giant aquifer underlies all four threatened by
pumped abstraction. Safaris disturb the desert soil
held by microscopic plants and threaten the newly
cultivated farm lands. But the biggest threat is high
consumption levels of energy and water (the average
swimming pool uses an amount of water daily that is
equivalent to the usage of 300400 urban residents),
and production of waste with no waste recycling
facility established for the area. Despite guidelines of
best practice, the absence of legislation discouraged
their realisation.

Fig. 6. Loop roads through the Western Desert Oases.

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

5. URBAN AND RURAL PROFILE: Local Bedouin communities established small camps, using local materials,
typically consisting of small huts, an open air
restaurant and a bathing area to service tourists. The
new urban villages built north of the resorts, are
mainly occupied by housing of different sizes and a
less percentage of the land was used for agricultural
plots, warehouses, bus garages, craft workshops,
commercial shaded street markets selling souvenirs,
schools, local entertainment facilities and laboratories for research. The urban villages were small in
size and few in number, but were popular because of
their scale and traditional compact architecture.
Pensions or catered lodgings were popular with
researchers.
6. TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION: New loop roads
were extended to pass across the new developments
and attractions. Internal roads were levelled. Local
airports in El Kharga, East Owainat and Abu Simbel
were upgraded to serve as international airports thus
facilitating the influx of tourists to the South Valley.
The Government also promoted internal tourism,
which required the upgrading of the intra-regional
transportation network. This involved river transport,
railway services and roads. Public buses were also
made available to residents, though not frequent
enough. Gaps were filled by private mini buses. The
efficiency of communication networks increased
(particularly cellular phones) and many services in
the area could be achieved online.
The scenarios have been constructed where each
depends on a dominant economic base, to identify
and shed light on critical issues within each base. The
scenarios have been structured by a balanced set of
components which have been woven to capture the
socialcultural, economic and ecological patterns
within a regional development, drawing together all
aspects of concern within a new development and the
interrelations between them in a plausible narrative.
The analysis and subsequent target setting and
assessment employ a number of methods to gather and
analyse data. Data gathering used primary sources of
interviews and field observation, and secondary sources
through documents including Egyptian governmental
documents such as the EHDR, DHS; a study of
development trajectories in the South Valley and the
structural plan of New Toshka city; academic literature;
newspaper articles; studies by the World Bank, FAO,
UNEP, WHO, Defra, IEA and UN reports for the
ESCWA region; studies from independent organisations
such as RSSTI (The Red Sea Sustainable Tourism

169

Initiative); and statistics and data sets by the World


Resource Institute, CIA world fact book, World
Economic Forum, YCELP (The Yale Centre for
Environmental Law and Policy), CIESIN (The Centre
for International Earth Science Information Network)
and CAMPUS (Central Agency for Mobilization and
Population Statistics in Egypt). Estimated figures for the
scenarios are drawn by reviewing and comparing
different sets of data and information from the above
mentioned sources as well as inference from similar
governorates (five for each scenario) or similar contexts
worldwide.
As mentioned earlier, following the scenario
narrative, a scenario analysis is conducted which paves
the way between the narrative and the quantitative
nature of the indicators as it draws out measurable
figures from the narrative, hence translating the
narrative into numbers.
4.4.2. Scenario analysis
4.4.2.1. Agricultural scenario analysis. To aid in
deducing possible patterns of development of the
different component scenarios in the region, relevant
figures have been compiled of five selected governorates for the following reasons: Aswan is the nearest,
thus a strong possible source of migrants and the New
Valley is the destination governorate where the South
Valley project is sited. Fayoum is selected due to
possible similarity of the area of the governorate to the
South Valley project and because agriculture is a main
sector of the governorates profile. North Sinai and the
Red Sea are selected due to their relatively emerging
economy in comparison to other governorates of Egypt.
Figures from these five governorates are compiled in
Table 1.
1. Population
Estimate of population: It is quite important to estimate
the number of people who can be supported by the
scenario. The Egyptian General Organization for
Physical Planning (GOPP, 1999) suggests 1 city
(100,000), 5 central rural dev. (10,000 each), and from
the map (Fig. 4), the 4 zoness should deliver 54 rural
units (30004000 each) thus, by year 2017 there is an
estimate of 312,000366,000 persons. Its structural plan
estimates 420,000 persons. A few have suggested that
the South Valley area will accommodate some 5 million
people (Nada, 1998), which seems an exaggeration. The
Government suggests 3.5 million, and a pessimistic
view estimates 50,000 (Schemm, 1999). Building on
job opportunities (130,000 and 435,000) suggested and

170

Table 1
Figures from selected governorates.
Facts/governorates
1
2
3a
3b
4
5
6

10
11
12
13
14
15
16

17
18
19
20
21
a
b
c

Aswan

Fayoum

North Sinai

6,069 km
2,721,478 persons
1,630/km2

27,564 km
357,900 persons
187/km2

376,505 km
193,000 persons
127/km2

130,000 km2
296,800 persons
140/km2

19.3/km2
29.4%
Agr. 30.3

12.8/km2
27.7%
Agr. 23.9

0.4/km2
42.1%
Agr. 33.4

2.5/km2
30.6%
Agr. 7.9

Unemployed
graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic
dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university
students of
populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/bed a
Ratio of inhabitant/
physiciana
Infant Mortality rate
(per 1000 live births)b
No. of cultural centres a
No. of Industrial
establishments a

5.66%

424.1/km2
34.6%
Agr. 48.1 Indu.
21.1
2.36%

Total
12.9
58.1

Female
34.5

Serv.
43

15-29a
31.2

Total
2.9
69.5

Female
8

Red Sea

34,608 km
1,258,882 persons
1,339/km 2

Indu.
26.7

New Valley

Area
Populationc
Population density
(research est.)
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in

Cultivated land
(1000 feddans) b
Km of paved roads a
Inhabitant/km a
Telephone lines/1000
householdsb
Passenger cars/1000
people a

Serv.
30.8

Indu.
16.4

Serv.
59.7

2.18%
15-29a
17.0

Total
3.8
60.4

Indu.
7.4

Serv.
59.2

4.28%
Female
13.3

15-29a
13.6

Total
13.3
54.2

Indu.
39.8

Serv.
52.3

Female
16.1

15-29a
9.4

2.38%
Female
28.5

15-29a
23.8

Total
2
46.5

28.9%

22.71%

24.7%

29.91%

24.6%

49

50

11

2.8
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/
physician
20.6

0.7
992 inhabitant/bed
1,265 inhabitant/
physician
17.3

3.4
615 inhabitant/bed
1,094 inhabitant/
physician
21.3

5.7
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/
physician
12.6

4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/
physician
13.2

10
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)
174.2

5
106 (43 food)
(12 eng., 6 xylose,
15 cons. 15 paper,
5 chem., 9 textiles)
399.1

10
41 (10 food)
(12 eng., 9 xylose,
5 cons. 3 paper,
1 chem.)
154.7

14
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)

159.3

5
46 (13 food)
(8 eng.,
9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)
0.7

912
1068
129

790
2520
73

3585
71
220

2322
61
271

2044
76
353

19.5

13.8

20.2

17.2

43.5

Compiled from Egypt Information Highway (1997).


Compiled from EHDR (2010).
Compiled from CAMPUS (2010).

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

171

Table 2
National estimate of population structure.
Age groups

1995 NICI (2002)

Age groups

2000 DHS

2000 UN

2020 BUCEN

2025 Courbage

04
514
1524
2560
60+

12.6%
25.4%
18.6%
32.7%
10.7%

04
514
1524
2564
65+

12.4%
24.9%
21.1%
38.05%
3.7%

35.4%

8.72%
17.41%
17.42%
50.46%/(to 60 = 47.2%)
5.98% (60+ = 9.3%)

23.1%

60.5%
4.1%

68.4%
8.6%

Source: Compiled from El-Zanaty and Way (2001), NICI (2002), BUCEN (2000), UN in Zohry (2002c) and Courbage (2002).

average household size of 5 with one earner, the South


Valley can support 650,0002,175,000 persons (AbouKourin, 1999). However, based on land ownership of 1
feddan/person (large investment and family plots) and a
cultivated land of 502,000 feddans, the population can
be estimated at 600,000.
Population structure: The national figures from
different sources have been compiled, and the future
projection presented by the United States Census BureauInternational Database (BUCEN-IDB) (2000) for the
year 2020 is considered for this scenario (Table 2).
Distribution of working population in different
working sectors: Based on forecasts of population
age structure suggesting a decrease in the child
population and increase in the potential labour force
(Assaad, 2000; BUCEN, 2000; Tunali, 1996; Williamson & Yousef, 2000), and current figures of CAPMAS
that youth ages of 1829 reached about 24.2% of the
total countrys population in 2010 of which 50.5% were
male and 49.5% female (Abdellatif, 2011), an estimated
figure of potential extended labour force (age 1560) for
the area is 40% of the population.
Distribution of employment in Egypt, by major
labour market segments and gender is summarised by
Assaad (2000): agriculture (39%), private non-agricultural enterprises (31.8%), the public sector (29.1%)
decreased to 25.6% in 2008 (EHDR, 2010). 1998
figures suggest that some 66.7% of the female labour
force worked in agriculture, as non-wage workers. In
this scenario, work is shared equally, revenues negate
the need for males to have second jobs to support their
families Though intensive agriculture will be used, it
will still employ a large sector of the population, due to

the up take of organic farming which involves more


farm processing and labour (van Mansvelt, Stobelaar, &
Hendriks, 1998), where pesticides and fertilizer use is
limited (Facts and Figures 2000, 2003).
Figures in Table 8 suggest that for intensive
agriculture the ratio of feddans per worker can be
between 7.93 and 11.9 as opposed to conventional
agriculture of between 0.91 and 1.98 feddans/worker.
For the South Valley area it is estimated at around 4
feddans/worker. Comparing activities involved in agrifood in the Netherlands (Table 3) as well as labour force
by occupation of different countries varying in the
labour intensiveness in the agricultural sector (see Table
8), and comparative figures for sectors of labour force
employment in the governorates (Table 1), it has been
estimated that some 45% will be employed in
Agriculture, 23% in Agro-Industry and warehousing,
12% in commercial services and 20% in communal
services and transport.
Fertility and mortality rates: As seen from Table 4,
the total fertility rate (TFR) of women in Egypt
decreased from 3.5 in 2000 to 3.0 in 2008 (an average of
the three preceding years), estimated by BUCEN (2000)
to reduce to 2.1 by 2025. Also, figures from rural Upper
Egypt suggest that TFR is at 3.6 (decreasing from 4.7 in
2001). As education attainment levels of females have a
great influence on TFR (El-Zanaty & Way, 2001) and
migrants to the South Valley area would have attained
some level of education, it is estimated that the TFR
would be 3 live births/woman.
Mortality rate (per 1000 live births) for Lower Egypt
was 93.3 and Upper Egypt 67.2 (Egypt Human
Development Report 1996, INP cited in Kishk,

Table 3
Percentage of employment in the agri-food complex of the Netherlands in 1997.
Employment in

Supply industry

Primary agriculture

Processing industries

Distribution

Percentage

20.12%

36.64%

24.77%

18.47%

Source: Facts and figures 2000 (although agriculture employment has dropped from 220 Annual Work Units in 2000 to 179.7 in 2010 (Eurostat,
2011) there is no recent data that would suggest major changes in breakdown of sectors).

172

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Table 4
Total fertility rates.
Total fertility rate

Urban/rural
Female wage worker/non-wage worker

Nationwide 3.0

Upper Egypt 3.4

Frontier Gov. 3.3

2001
urban

2008
urban

2001
rural

2008
rural

2001
urban

2008
urban

2001
rural

2008
rural

3.1
2.6

2.7

3.9
3.7

3.2

3.4
NA

3.0

4.7

3.6
NA

NA
NA

Source: El-Zanaty and Way (2001, 2009).

Table 5
Percentage of households in possession of property and animals.
Agricultural land
Farm animals; livestock/poultry

Nationwide 13.9
Nationwide 21.6

Rural Upper Egypt 25.3


Rural Upper Egypt 49.5

Frontier governorates 13.4


Frontier governorates 21.6

Source: El-Zanaty and Way (2009).

Rasheed, El-Badry, Khalifa, & Gomaa, 2002). Recent


figures suggest a drop from 51.4 to 25.2 deaths/1000
live births (CIA world fact book Egypt 2011 est.). The
figure for Upper Egypt is at about 24.5 deaths/1000 live
births and frontier governorates at 14.7 (EHDR, 2010).
Comparing figures of selected governorates in Table 1
(row 19) and considering that there is a similarity with
frontier governorates and the environment is far less
polluted than Upper Egypt, the figure of 14.7 deaths/
1000 births is estimated for scenario I (Table 5).
2. Life styles
It is perceived that large investors (those owning large
plots of land will not be permanently living in the area,
rather appointees will manage their land) constitute the
upper class and will account for 1% of the population.
The second category will be operators of businesses
whether they own them or manage them for others, and
they represent the upper middle class and middle class
and a slight share of the upper class, they account for
14% of the population. The two major sectors of the
population are farmers and labourers. Farmers own
properties and/or livestock, and account for 25% of the
population, taking the ownership figures in Table 6 into
consideration. Reflection on Assaad (2000) figures of
the labour market segments in 1998 show that labourers
account for 50% of the population; they are wageworkers in the different sectors, including the public sector.

Observation of the figures of unemployment from


selected governorates in Table 1 (row 7) suggests that
unemployment figures vary in different regions of the
country ranging between 12.9% in Aswan to 2% in the
Red Sea. The official estimate of unemployment in
August 2011 was 11.8% (rose from 10% in 2004), as
presented in a report by the Central Administration of
Statistics Centre for Population Mobilization and
Statistics (CAPMAS) (Abdellatif, 2011). The same
report found unemployment rate among youth in the
1829 age group to be 20.4%. Unemployment is
considered in this study, at 15% (Table 7).
Economic sectors: The agricultural sector includes
arable farming, livestock production, fisheries and
horticulture (primary production sector). The industries
are categorised into supply industries (supplying seeds,
fertilizers, animal feeds, technical equipment, animal
housing and greenhouses), and processing industries
(food manufacturing industry). Adding to the primary
production sector and the industries is the businesses of
warehousing (weighing, sampling, grading) and distribution (agro-logistics). Primary sector has a mix of
smallmedium and large-scale businesses, and the
supply, processing, warehousing and distribution are
small-medium scale businesses.
Table 6
Two scenarios of labour force.
Population (600,000)

(a) Labour
force 58%

(b) Labour
force 40%

Pop. working in Agri.: 45%


Agro-Indus. and warehousing 23%
Commercial services 12%
Communal services and transport 20%

156,600
80,040
41,760
69,600

108,000
55,200
28,800
48,000

3. Economy
Labour force and unemployment percentage: In the
following table, two scenarios of labour force of 58%
and 40% are considered.

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

173

Table 7
Labour force participation rates.
Labour force participation rates (%) 1564

Males
Females
Total

Urban

Rural

Total

1988

1998

1988

1998

1988

1998

74.4
28.5
51.45

70.8
33.0
51.9

78.8
53.5
66.15

73.6
56.6
65.1

76.7
41.8
59.25

72.3
46.0
59.15

Bold values indicates the high values or those most relevant to the area and are refered to in the text.

Table 8 summarises a comparison of the share of


different economic sectors in the GDP of selected
countries, and the labour force by occupation. These have
been selected due to the nature of the agriculture and
whether it is conventional or intensive. Whereas
Netherlands employs intensive agriculture on seareclaimed land, Israel employs intensive agriculture on
desert land, Thailand uses conventional agricultural
methods, which is the case in a large sector of the
agricultural practice in Egypt (permanent crops are
466,000 ha 6.23 ha/1000 people, and organic cropland
is estimated at 15,000 ha, 0.20 ha/1000 people (nationmaster.com, 2004).
The share of sectors in the GDP of each country and
corresponding labour force differs completely from one
country to another, where Egypts agricultural sectors
share in the GDP is the highest at 14%, however, the
Netherlands and Israel a modest 2.6% and whereas
42.4% of the population of Thailand work in
agriculture, the sector accounts for 12.4% of the GDP.
For South Valley, the agricultural sector is the major
sector for employment in the first scenario, and
estimated figures for share of sectors are: agriculture
30%, industry 25%, and services 45%.
4. Environment
Piped water and sanitation facilities have been largely
enhanced and accessed by a majority of households as
figures in Table 9 suggest. They are an improvement on
the 1995 EHDR figures where households with access
to piped water in urban Upper Egypt were: 90.7%, and
rural: 55.8% and those with access to sanitation in urban
Upper Egypt were: 93.1%, rural: 57.1% (Egypt Human
Development Report, 1996 cited in Kishk et al., 2002).
It is expected though that at the South Valley,
investments and authorities will implement piped water
networks, thus a high percentage of households will have
access to piped water, however, sanitation networks
would lag behind.
Potable water will be available to almost all
households in South Valley estimated at 90%, however,

due to rationalising policies, the per capita share will


decrease. Zohry (2002c) refers to the World Bank
projections for Egypt of a decline from 930 cubic
metres per capita per annum in 1999 to 649 cubic metres
per capita in 2025. 2003 figures stood at 792 cubic
metres per capita (Mostafa, 2004). The New Valley
figure is 541 litres/day/capita, and with the World Bank
scenario can decline to 377.5 litre/day/capita. The South
Valley figure will be estimated at 220 litre/day.
Sewer capacity per capita in the five governorates
varies between none in the Red Sea to 109 litre/day in
the New Valley. Furthermore, it has been suggested
from a study population in a field questionnaire of
migrants to Cairo from Upper Egypt (Zohry, 2002a) that
none had connection to public sewage. As suggested
earlier in this section, access to sanitation in South
Valley is assumed to be inadequate, thus only 60% of
households will have access to it.
Energy: Electricity provision is near universal in
Egypt, where 93.3% of Rural Upper Egypt households
have electricity provision. Around 84% of Egypts
electrical generating capacity is thermal (natural gas),
with the remaining 16% hydroelectric (EIA, 2004),
mostly from the Aswan High Dam. It is assumed that for
the South Valley agricultural region, energy sources are
distributed as follows: fossil fuel 10%, natural gas 53%,
hydro 16%, solar 18%, wind 0%, and biomass 3%.
Renewables are widely used for household energy, while
industrial activities are served by non-renewable sources.
5. Urban and rural profile
Household size: Mean household size (see Table 10) of
rural Upper Egypt in 2000 was 6.2, decreasing to 5.8 in
2008 (El-Zanaty & Way, 2001, 2009 Egypt Demographic
and Health Survey) the poorer, the larger the families as
Zohrys survey of 242 migrants (2002b) recorded an
average of 8.2 persons/family. Due to the educational
attainment level of both males and females, it is estimated
that the household size will be less than the migrants
place of origin, with three children per household, the
average household size is estimated to be five.

174

Table 8
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.
Egypt (source for left col.
Populstat, 2004 site, right
col. CIA 2011) 2010 est.

The Netherlands (CIA the world


fact book 2011) 2010 est.

Israel (CIA the world


fact book 2011) 2010 est.

Thailand (CIA the world


fact book 2011) 2010 est.

Agriculture
Industry
Services

18%
30%
52%

2.6%
24.9%
72.5%

2.4%
32.6%
65%

12.4%
44.7%
42.9%

Labour force by occupation

Egypt (source for


left col. Populstat,
2004 site, right col.
CIA 2011) 2001 est.

The Netherlands (CIA the


world fact book 2011) 2005 est.

Israel (CIA the world


fact book 2011) 2008 est.

Thailand (CIA the world


fact book 2011) 2008 est.

Agriculture
Industry
Services

34%
12%
54%

2%
18%
80%
31.2% public services
13.1% finance and business
12.8% commerce
7.5% construction
6.2% transport, storage and communication
6.4% personal and other services

2% (+forestry and fishery)


16%
82% divided as follows:

42.4%
19.7%
37.9%

Ratio of cultivated land


to workers

14%
37.5%
48.3%

32%
17%
51%

Egypt

The Netherlands

Israel

Thailand

0.95 acres/worker
feddans/worker
0.91 Arable land 2.92% (2005)
total land 995,450 km2

8.24 acres/worker
7.93 feddans/worker
Arable land 21.96% (2005)
total land 33,893 km2

12.36 acres/worker
11.9 feddans/worker
Arable land 15.45% (2005)
total land 20,330 km2

2.1 acres/worker
1.98 feddans/worker
Arable land 27.54% (2005)
total land 510,890 km2

Source: nationmaster.com (2004) from the World Resources Institute, Washington DC.

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Share of sector in GDP in

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

175

Table 9
Water and sanitation facilities in selected governorates.
Aswan

Facts/governorates

Fayoum

North Sinai New Valley

Red Sea

Upper Egypt

Frontier Gov.

Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural


a

Potable water per capita


Sewer capacity per capitaa
Households (%) with
access to piped waterb
Households (%) with
access to sanitationb

181 litre/day 115 litre/day 43 litre/day 541 litre/day 134 litre/day NA


45 litre/day 24 litre/day 10 litre/day 109 litre/day None litre/day NA
94.2
79.6
92.8
97.8
83.7
85.9

96.4

88.4

97.9

81.4

91.12

98.5

99.6

84.9

75.8

NA
NA
90.0

96.8

85.7

81.1

91.6

97.3

79.7

Bold values indicates the high values or those most relevant to the area and are refered to in the text.
a
Egypt Information Highway (1997).
b
EHDR (2005).

Distribution of land uses: The South Valley region


comprises of agricultural land, housing, industrial
plants, warehouses, commercial facilities and cultural
centres among other services. The Structural Plan
(1999) envisages 5 zones (see Fig. 5). For this scenario,
it is assumed that 502,000 feddans (2108.7 km2) are
agricultural land, and a projection of 1220 hhd/feddan,
120,000 hhd, suggests some 2545 km2 will be required
for housing. Going by Drurys (1981) categorisation for
industrial occupancy (services require 15 m2/per person
to 30 m2/per person; manufacturing an average of
28 m2/per person and distributive trades 80 m2/per
person). Thus, for the estimated 55,200 workers in
industry and warehousing an area of 4416 km2 will be
needed (Table 11).
Education; enrolment and facilities: Pre university
school enrolment percentages from selected governorates (see Table 1) suggest a percentage of 25% for the
South Valley translated in numbers to 150,000 students.
El-Zanaty and Way (2009) show decline in enrolment
from one education level to the other suggesting that
only 17.5% enrol in pre university education. Taking
transition percentages into consideration the figures for
the South Valley are as follows: primary school students
represent 82.4% of children (43,012 persons), transition
to preparatory as percent of primary is 104.5% (44,948),
transition to secondary as percentage of preparatory is

71% (31,913 persons) (EHDR, 2003) giving a total of


119,874 persons, representing 19.98% of population.
These figures assume that child enrolment and technical
secondary in new settlements is higher as outlined in the
scenario.
Health profile: The average of Health care facilities
of selected governorates (Table 1) suggests an estimate
of 475 inhabitants/bed and 1370 inhabitants/physician
for the South Valley. If we apply governorate ratios of
the number of hospitals to the total population to the
South Valleys 600,000 population, a figure between
11.4 and 30.6 health units is arrived at. In general health
care indicators in the frontier governorates score highest
in the country (EHDR, 2010).
Cultural facilities in the South Valley should have an
important role in providing activities and gatherings for
the new settlers, thus building on governorate figures (5,
10, 14, 5, and 11) 20 centres are estimated.
6. Transport and communications
Paved roads: in each of the governorates, the paved
roads and the ratio of paved roads to population are
outlined in Table 1 (rows 18, 19). Because each
governorate has a different area and geography
affecting this ratio, a ratio of inhabitant to paved roads
(average from the five governorates), is applied for the

Table 10
Characteristics of households.
Household profile

Mean size of household


Mean rooms per household
Mean persons per room

Nationwide

Upper Egypt

Frontier governorates

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

4.1
3.4
1.3

5.1
3.7
1.5

4.6
3.6
1.4

4.4
3.5
1.4

5.8
3.6
1.8

5.3
3.5
1.6

Source: El-Zanaty and Way (2001).


Bold values indicates the high values or those most relevant to the area and are refered to in the text.

5.1
3.8
1.4

Source: Adapted from The GOPP, The Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Communities (1999).

140,000
588.1
86,000
146 persons/km2
10,000 + 3  2000 + 50  1000
140,000
588.1
189,000
153 persons/km 2
10,000 + 3  2000 + 71  1000
102,000
428.5
67,000
133 persons/km 2
10,000 + 2  2000 + 53  1000
120,000
504
78,000
155 persons/km 2
10,000 + 3  2000 + 62  1000
Area in feddans
Area in km2
Population
Population density
Composition of settlements

Zone 4 (West)
Zone 3 (Northwest)
Zone 2 (North)
Zone 1 (North East)
Zones of development

Table 11
Zones of development of the South Valley project.

502,000
2108.7
420,000
av. 146.75 per/km 2

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Total

176

population of 600,000 and 1646 km is deduced.


Comparison with the compactness of Fayoum which
is largely agricultural land, an estimate of 1000 km of
paved roads is made.
Telephone lines: lines per 1000 household has more
than doubled between 2001 and 2005 (EHDR, 2008).
For this scenario, an average of the five figures of
selected governorates is taken (209 telephone lines/
1000 households).
Modes of passenger transport: in a survey by the
National Population Council (El-Zanaty & Way, 2009),
the percentage of households in rural Upper Egypt that
possessed the following means of transportation were as
follows: bicycle 16%, private car 2.4%, and motorcycle
3.2%. In the scenario it is assumed that people will rely
on mini buses for intra urban transportation. Buses and
trains will be used mainly for inter-governorate trips.
Thus these figures for modes of transport are assumed
for the area: bicycle 27%, private car 4%, motorcycle
2%, mini bus 45%, bus 7%, and train 5%.
Modes of transport for freight are mainly trucks,
from fields to refrigerators and warehouses, and to
adjacent local markets and to ports. Trains are
convenient for transporting goods to ports. Freight
aeroplanes (not as many) are used by international
companies to export to other countries.
See Table 12 for a summary of figures drawn from
the analysis of scenario I.
4.4.2.2. Industrial scenario analysis. In Table 13,
relevant indicators and figures have been compiled
from five governorates which have been chosen to offer
comparative figures for the industrial scenario. Damietta
and Kalyoubia are of a small area and compared to other
governorates (other than the large urban centres of
Alexandria and Cairo), a large number of the labour force
works in industry. Aswan has been included as a possible
source of migration, the New Valley is the region in which
the study area lies and the Red sea governorate is a
considerably emerging economy.
1. Population
Estimate of population: Metallurgical and mineral
resources quantities can help identify the size of
industry in the region and consequently the number of
workers in the plants which in turn leads to the expected
size of population. However, not all the quantities are
documented, thus direct deductions are infeasible.
Instead, it has been necessary to draw on the literature
on new industrial cities. It suggests that new cities
established for industry (ex. Sadat City, 10 Ramadan

Table 12
Scenario I analysis summary.

Scenario I

Lifestyle

Economy

Environment

Urban and rural profile


Area of approx. 1500 km2

Transportation and
communication

Pop. working in Agri.:


45% (108,000p)

Upper class 1%

Labour force 40%


of total population

Household size (5)

Paved roads 1000 km

Agro-Indus. and
warehousing 23% (55,200p)

Upper middle
class 14%

Cultivated area
502,000 feddans

Telephone lines 209/1000


households

Commercial services 12%


(28,800p)
Communal services and
transport 20% (48,000p)

Middle class 25%

Unemployed: 15%
Unemployed
graduates: 3%
Economy sectors:

Potable water 90%


of households
220 litre/day/capita
Sewer capacity
inadequate 60% of
households
Energy use:

Modes for passenger:

Economy 50%

Agriculture 30%

Fossil fuel (10%)


Natural gas (45%)

Industrial plants area and


warehouses area 4.784 km2
Other services

Fertility (3 children)

Agro-industries 25%

Hydro (16%)

Housing 2545 km2

Mortality (14.7 per 1000 births)

Commercial services
and warehousing 25%
Transport 20%

Solar (25%)

Commercial facilities

Wind (1%)

Cultural centres 20

Biogas (3%)

Schools
Primary (46,650 child)
Prep. and sec. (67,100p)
Institutes 2 (6000p)
(Agriculture, agro-industry)
Health care facilities 30
475 inhabitant/bed
1370 inhabitant/physician

Age groups
04 (8.75%) 52,200
514 (17.4%) 104,400

1524 (17.4%) 104,400


2560 (47.15%) 282,900

Bicycle 27%
Private car 4%
Motorcycle 2%
Mini bus 45%
Bus 7%
Foot 10%
Modes for freight
Trucks 60%
Train 30%

Aeroplane 10%

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Population (600,000)

60+ (9.3%) 55,800

177

178

Table 13
Figures from selected governorates.
Facts/governorates
a

Area
Population c
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in

6
7

Unemployed graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university students
of populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/beda
Ratio of inhabitant/
physician a
Mortality rate b
No. of cultural centres a
Cultivated landb
No. of Industrial
establishments a

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

18
19
20
21
22
23
a
b
c

Potable water per capita a


Sewer capacity per capitaa
Households (%) with
access to piped watera
Households (%) with
access to sanitationa
Telephone lines/1000
households a
Passenger cars/1000
peoplea

Damietta
2

Kalyoubia
2

New Valley

Red Sea
2

130,000 km2
155,695 persons
2,193 population/km2
33.48%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
8
23.8
68.3
2.38%
Total
Female
15-29
4.4
8.2
9.4
58.5

34,608 km
973,671 persons
1,036 population/km 2
21.87%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
28.1
23.6
48.2
5.66%
Total
Female
15-29
14.9
30.4
31.2
73.0

1,029 km
914,614 persons
1,552 population/km 2
30%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
24.6
35.3
40.1
2.18%
Total
Female
15-29
6.5
18.4
14.2
62.4

1,001 km
3,302,860 persons
3,494 population/km 2
28.4%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
18.7
33.8
47.5
2.41%
Total
Female
15-29
7.5
16
16.3
67.6

376,505 km
141,737 persons
127population/km 2
28.58%
Agr.
Indu.
22.5
15.6
4.28%
Total
Female
10.9
22.6
68.4

28.9%

29%

25.7%

29.91%

24.6%

49

41

177

11

1.9
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/
physician
25
10
146,886 Feddans
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)

1.5
475 inhabitant/bed
1846 inhabitant/
physician
17.7
12
193,998 Feddans
1577 (168 food)
(337 eng., 60 xylose,
79 cons. 41 paper,
339 chem. 475 tex.
73metallic)
126 litre/day
183 litre/day
94.6

5.1
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/
physician
19
14
69,717 Feddans
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)

4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/
physician
21
5
80 Feddans
46 (13 food)
(8 eng., 9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)

181 litre/day
45 litre/day
94.2

2.5
313 inhabitant/bed
685 inhabitant/
physician
17.7
6
112,208 Feddans
842 (126 food)
(47 eng., 554 xylose,
63 cons. 10 paper,
8 chem.,
33 textiles)
229 litre/day
77 litre/day
99.3

541 litre/day
109 litre/day
97.8

134 litre/day
None litre/day
83.7

88.4

99.4

98.7

98.5

99.6

66

121.3

74.6

139

181.1

19.5

25.4

15.8

17.2

43.5

Compiled from Egypt Information Highway (1997).


Compiled from EHDR (2010).
Compiled from CAMPUS (2010).

Serv.
61.9
15-29
23.8

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

1
2
3
4
5

Aswan

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

179

Table 14
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.
Share of sector in
GDP in

Egypt (source for left


col. Populstat, 2004
site, right col. CIA
2011) 2010 est.

Malaysia (CIA the


world fact book 2012)
2011 est.

Turkey (CIA the


world fact book 2011)
2011 est.

Tunisia (CIA the


world fact book 2006)
2010 est.

Agriculture
Industry
Services

18%
30%
52%

12%
40%
48%

9.2%
26.9%
63.9%

10.6%
34.6%
54.8%

Labour force
by occupation

Egypt (source for


left col. Populstat,
2004 site, right col.
CIA 2011) 2001 est

Malaysia (CIA the


world fact book 2012)
2005 est.

Turkey (CIA the


world fact book 2011)
2010 est.

Tunisia (CIA the


world fact book 2006)
2009 est.

Agriculture
Industry
Services

34%
12%
54%

13%
36%
51%

25.5%
26.2%
48.4%

18.3%
31.9%
49.8%

14%
37.5%
48.3%

32%
17%
51%

and New Ameriya City) had a target population of


500,000 (Stewart, 1996). It is expected that the
population is dispersed over the region and not confined
to one city.
Population structure: Building on assumptions in the
scenario, age groups 015 percentages are less than
estimated figures of the country while age group 2560
are higher, due to most of that work force being single
men, with few dependents.
Distribution of working population in different
working sectors: Table 14 summarises a comparison
of the labour force by occupation from countries with
dominant industrial economies. By also taking
Damietta and Kalyoubia figures into account, the South
Valley figures are estimated as follows: industrial
activity accounts for 48%, followed by transportation
17% (due to quarrying and the dispersed location of
resources), commercial services partly as supportive
activities to the industries 20%, and communal services
8%, whereas agriculture is still an important activity
accounting for 7% of the labour force.
Fertility and mortality rate: Fertility for scenario II is
estimated as 2.2 live births/woman (less than the rate of
the country which is 3.3), due to the culture of industrial
workers who do not need a big family. Under 5s
mortality rate is estimated at 22.5 per 1000 births. It was
assumed that health care is not as efficient and that
particulate matters have an effect on health, and
subsequently on mortality rate.
2. Life style
In the scenario it has been assumed that the majority of
the population are young male workers. This has an

effect on the distribution of household classes. The


percentage of working class households is the highest in
distribution where most of the workforce live (69%),
followed by the middle class category (20%) and the
upper middle class for the managerial personnel (10%).
The Upper class is the lowest (1%) reserved for visitors
to the area such as owners of the plants and VIPs.
3. Economy
Labour force and unemployment: It is assumed that the
014 age percentage is 23.4% less than national figures
(see Table 2) as families are not the major constituent of
the population. The group 1524 is estimated to
constitute 16.4%, however there is an increase in the
age group of 2560 to 51.2%. Out of the total population,
31.6% are under the age of 20, some 9% are above 60, and
thus the potential labour force is 67.6% of population.
Selected governorate figures are less (Table 13) yet,
projections expect an increase (Assaad, 2000; Tunali,
1996; Williamson & Yousef, 2000), thus an estimate of
42% is suggested. Job opportunities in heavy industries
are available for males, and a few jobs are available for
females in light industries, and after observing the
unemployment levels in selected governorates, unemployment is estimated at 10%.
Economic sectors: Table 14 summarises a comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the
GDP of selected countries with industry as a dominant
base, and the labour force by occupation. The share of
sectors in the GDP of each country and labour force by
occupation correspond. However, Malaysia and Portugals labour force in agriculture is almost twice the
share of the sector in the GDP of the country, reflecting

180

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

the background of agricultural importance in both


countries.
For scenario II, the industrial sector is the major field
for employment, and estimated figures for share of
sectors are: agriculture 5%, industry 55%, transport and
communal services 30% and commercial services 10%.
4. Environment
Potable water and sewer capacity: Considering figures
from governorates and the assumption in the scenario
that networks of water and particularly sewer were not
implemented sufficiently, it is estimated for scenario II
that 85% of households had potable water, and those
with access to sewer were 60% of households. Potable
water per capita per day of governorates averages at 242
litre/capita/day, projected to drop 30% by 2025 by the
World Bank (Zohry, 2002c). Yet, the New Valley figure
(541) is more than twice the average, and with the
introduction of the new canal, it is assumed for the area
a figure of 250 litre/capita/day. Sanitation is expected to
be poor in the area. Although an average of 82.8 litre/
capita/day is suggested by governorate figures, a figure
of 60 litre/day is estimated.
Energy: It is suggested that in developing countries
the industrial sector is responsible for 50% of primary
energy use and 53% of associated carbon dioxide
emissions. It is estimated for the South Valley industrial
scenario that energy sources are distributed as follows:
fossil fuel 20%, natural gas 57%, hydro 16%, solar
(mainly used by households and small size commercial
services) 7%, wind 0%, and biomass 0%.
5. Urban and rural profile
Household size: It has been shown that Upper Egypt
mean household size was 4.9 in urban areas, 6.2 in rural
areas and in Frontier governorates the figure was 6.
Following the assumption made in the scenario of
smaller household size and an average of two children,
mean household size is assumed at four.
Distribution of land use: It is suggested that
industrial plants will occupy 10% of the region,
considering that the resources are widespread where
most of the land is desert. Figures from the Egyptian
industrial new towns allocate different percentages of
land to industry for example 45%, 39% and 29% for
10th of Ramadan, Al Sadat and 6th October,
respectively. Similarly, to residential occupancy these
percentages are allocated: 35%, 34% and 68% and to
commercial and services 17%, 30% and 17%, reflecting
the objective of the new settlements. An estimated

number of households for the scenario are 125,000


households, and land allocated for agriculture 50,000
feddans. Land within developments is also allocated for
the following: housing 35%, warehouses 5%, commercial and communal services 18%.
Education; enrolment and facilities: Reviewing the
EHDR report (2003), the DHS report (2010) and figures
from selected governorates, it is assumed for the
industrial scenario, that 22% of population enrol in pre
university education, as such primary students are
estimated at 35,000 students, preparatory and secondary
at 75,000 students. Higher education is 10.5% of the age
group 2024.
Health profile: Taking an average figure from the
selected governorates, estimates of healthcare are 410
inhabitants/bed and 1385 inhabitants/physician. Considering the ratio of no. of hospitals to the total
population of the selected industrial governorates, the
scenarios 500,000 population would acquire 827
health units. A figure of 25 health units is assumed for
the area, as it is expected that health care facilities need
to be relatively greater to cover the wider area.
Cultural facilities: It is assumed that the community
and authoritys effort to expand these facilities are not
sufficient, thus it is estimated that 15 centres are built.
6. Transportation and communication
Paved roads: Toshka city is 200 km from Aswan
airport, 700 km from Safaga port. There are several
main roads joining the area with surrounding cities. It is
estimated that the developments include 1000 km of
paved roads. However, some roads are needed to join
the industrial areas in the desert to the settlements. Thus
an estimated 1500 km needs to be added to the 1000 km
making a total of 2500 km.
It can be suggested that the rail track would be
extended from where it stops at el Kharga, so it
continues further south parallel to the Darb el Arbaein
road some 250 km to a central place between Toshka
and quarries at Bir Kiseiba and is used for freight. In the
future additional tracks can be added for passenger
coaches. The railway from Cairo to Upper Egypt ends at
Aswan. It can be extended to the south west parallel to
the road joining Toshka and Aswan to facilitate the
commuting of passengers.
Telephone lines: An average of the five figures of the
selected governorates (Table 13, row 22) are taken
resulting in a figure of 116/1000 households.
Modes of transport: It is assumed that people will
rely on mini buses for transportation between plants and
residential areas, due to their higher frequency of trips

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

181

within the area. Buses are used mainly for longer trips to
transport labour to resource sites. The trips take place
every fortnight or so to replace the team and so on.
Trains are used to transport passengers to nearby cities
and to some nearby plants. Thus these figures for modes
of transport are assumed for the area: bicycle 10%, foot
1%, private car 4%, motorcycle 2%, mini bus 53%, bus
20%, train 10%. Freight transport is mainly conducted
by trucks from quarries to factories, warehouses and
from raw material sites to manufacturing zones, to
adjacent local markets and to ports. Trains are
convenient for transporting goods to ports.
See Table 15 for a summary of figures drawn from
the analysis of scenario II.

& warehousing, 15% commercial service, 30% communal service)


Fertility and mortality rate: There are different
groups of population in this scenario, with radically
different backgrounds, which results in a variety of
fertility rates and household size, dependant on cultural
choices. In the scenario it is estimated that migrants will
have a TFR of 3, and Bedouins a TFR of 4, while those
involved in management a TFR of 2. On average a
figure of 3 is estimated for the area. As for the mortality
rate of under 5 year olds, it is assumed that better health
facilities are in place to serve the tourism industry, thus
a figure similar to lower Egypt (and reduced by 50% as
forecasted previously) is assumed for the area, 16.4
deaths/1000 live births.

4.4.2.3. Tourism scenario analysis. In Table 16,


relevant indicators and figures have been compiled
from five governorates which have been chosen to offer
comparative figures for the tourism scenario. South
Sinai and Luxor are cities that have tourism as a major
economic sector.

2. Life style

1. Population
Estimate of population: The ratio of jobs to tourists
defines the number of the population working in tourism
In 2003 in Malta there were 175,862 tourist arrivals,
which generated 41,000 jobs, as such the ratio is 1:4. In
an interview with an independent environmental
consultant he suggested that in Egypt the ratio is 1:1
or even 2:1. A ratio of 1:2 is considered for the area.
Reviewing the tourist nights of Luxor and Aswan, it is
estimated that the area could receive 100,000 tourist
arrivals. That suggests the employment of 25,000
50,000 people, supporting a population of between
250,00 and 500,000. The Head of Tourism Development Authority of Upper Egypt suggests that the area
offers 30,000 jobs in tourism. This figure suggests a
population of 300,000.
Population structure: The first age group will be
similar to the expected national figures, however, the
age group of 2560 is higher due to the incoming
population who try to find job opportunities in the area,
and because not all settle in the area, the age group of
60+ is slightly lower than national estimations.
Distribution of working population in different
sectors: Consulting figures from countries that have
tourism dominant economies (see Table 17) and that of
governorates (Table 16) suggest a labour distribution for
the tourism scenario as follows: 13% agriculture, 7%
industry and 80% services (25% tourism, 10% transport

The diverse groups in the scenarios dictate different


lifestyles as shown in the narrative. The working
(economy) class constitutes nearly half the population
(48%) representing mainly the workforce, the middle
class follows (25%) representing those occupying small
trades and small investors. The upper middle class
(24%) represent medium and large investors working in
support activities such as transport and goods supply,
and finally 3% represent the upper class.
3. Economy
Labour force and unemployment: Of the age group 15
24 only 30% can be counted in the labour force, whereas
70% complete secondary and higher education before
recruitment. Thus the potential labour force can be
55.42% of the total population (50.5% + 30% of the age
group 1524). Considering similar tourism governorate
figures, an estimate of 39.6% is taken for the area.
The unemployment figures of selected governorates
(see Table 16) fluctuate between a surprisingly low 2%
and a high of 14.9%, where the lower refers to the
relatively new areas attracting skilled staff and also
large numbers of construction workers. However, the
scenarios are set at the stabilization phase of the
settlements; as such unemployment for the tourism
scenario is estimated at 8.5%. It is worth noting that
female employment in the relatively emerging economies of South Sinai and Red Sea are higher than other
governorate figures.
Economic sectors: Table 17 summarises a comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the
GDP of selected tourism dominant countries, and the
labour force by occupation. Barbados and Malta have

182

Table 15
Scenario II analysis summary.

Scenario II

Lifestyle

Economy

Environment

Urban and rural profile


Area of approx. 1000 km2

Transportation and
communication

Pop. working in Agri.:


7% (25,200p)

Upper class 1%

labour force 42% of


total population:

Household size (4)

Paved roads 2500 km

In Industry and warehousing


48% (100,800p):

Upper middle
class 10%
Middle class 20%

Schools
Primary (33,000 child)
Prep. and sec. (48,650p)
Institutes (4300p)

Telephone lines
116/1000 household

Commercial services 20%


(31,500p)
Communal services 8%
and transport 17% (52,500p)

Unemployed: 10%
Unemployed
graduates 3%
Economy sectors:

Potable water 85%


of households
250 litre/day/capita
Sewer capacity
inadequate 60%
of households
Energy use:

Economy 69%

Industries 55%

Fossil fuel (20%)


Natural gas (57%)
Hydro (16%)

Mortality (22.5 per 1000 births)

Services and
Transport 30%
Agriculture 5%

Health care 3550 facilities


410 inhabitant/bed
1385 inhabitant/physician
Cultural centres 20

Solar (7%)

Communal services 16%

Age groups

Commerce 10%

Wind (0%)

Cultivated area 20% of


settlements area
50,000 feddans (202.36 km2)
Industrial plants distributed
regionally, local industries
10% of area
Warehouses area 6%
Commercial area 3%
Housing 35%

Fertility (2.2 children)

04 (8%) 40,000
514 (15.4%) 77,000

Declined air quality

1524 (16.4%) 82,000


2560 (51.2%) 256,000
60+ (9%) 44,000

Solid wastes
Liquid wastes

Modes for passenger:


Bicycle 10%
Private car 4%
Motorcycle 2%
Mini bus 53%
Bus 20%
Foot 1%
Train 10%
Modes for freight
Trucks 80%
Train 20%

Aeroplane 0%

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Population (500,000)

Table 16
Figures from selected governorates.
Aswan

Luxor

South Sinai

New Valley

Red Sea

Area a
Population c
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in

6
7

Unemployed graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university students
of populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/beda
Ratio of inhab./physiciana
Mortality rate b
No. of cultural centresb
Cultivated landb
No. of Industrial
establishments a

34,608 km2
973,671 persons
1,036 population/km 2
21.87%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
28.1
23.6
48.2
5.66%
Total
Female
15-29
14.9
30.4
31.2
73.0

416 km2
360,503 persons
1,727 population/km 2
23.2%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
24.1
21.3
54.6
3.37%
Total
Female
15-29
11.7
29.3
28
72.2

28,438 km2
54,495 persons
5 population/km 2
40.2%
Agr.
Indu.
10.9
19.3
0.45%
Total
Female
2
7.9
58.9

376,505 km2
141,737 persons
127population/km 2
28.58%
Agr.
Indu.
22.5
15.6
4.28%
Total
Female
10.9
22.6
68.4

130,000 km2
155,695 persons
2,193 population/km 2
33.48%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
8
23.8
68.3
2.38%
Total
Female
15-29
4.4
8.2
9.4
58.5

28.9%

30.3%

18.5%

29.91%

24.6%

49

11

1.9
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/physician
25
10
146,886 Feddans
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)
181 litre/day
45 litre/day
94.2

2.3
982 inhabitant/bed
1306 inhabitant/physician
44.1
2
41,510 Feddans
7 (4 food)
(1 chem., 2 textiles)

9.9
164 inhabitant/bed
524 inhabitant/physician
32.5
8
5,439 Feddans
33 (1 food)
(1 chem. 31 others)

5.1
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/physician
19
14
69,717 Feddans
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)

4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/physician
21
5
80 Feddans
46 (13 food)
(8 eng., 9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)

161 litre/day
36 litre/day
88.3

380 litre/day
200 litre/day
87.8

541 litre/day
109 litre/day
97.8

134 litre/day
None litre/day
83.7

88.4

88.1

89.5

98.5

99.6

912
1068
4.86

250
1442
5.22

1962
28
26.06

2322
61
11.18

2044
76
13.57

66

149

255.2

139

181.1

19.5

14.5

67.1

17.2

43.5

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
a
b
c

Potable water/capita a
Sewer capacity/capitaa
Households (%) with
access to piped waterb
Households (%) with
access to sanitation b
Km of paved roadsa
Inhabitant/kma
Telephone lines/100
inhabitanta
Telephone lines/1000
households b
Passenger cars/1000 peoplea

15-29
4.7

Serv.
61.9
15-29
23.8

183

Compiled from Egypt Information Highway (1997).


Compiled from EHDR (2010).
Compiled from CAMPUS (2010).

Serv.
69.8

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Facts/governorates
1
2
3
4
5

6%
16%
78%

almost corresponding labour and GDP share of sectors


in the economy. However, Hawaiis GDP is dependant
almost solely on services, where tourism accounts for
24.3% (nationmaster, online). For scenario III, the
tourism sector is the major contributor to the economy,
whether through direct or supporting activities. Estimated figures for share of sectors are: agriculture
3%, industry 15%, transport 12%, communal services
20%, commercial and business services 20% and
tourism 30%.

http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopaedia/Hawaii/Economy.
a

34%
12%
54%

32%
17%
51%

1.5%
24.7%
73.9%

1.2%
7.5%
91.2%

4. Environment

Agriculture
Industry
Services

Barbados (CIA the world


fact book 2012) 2000 est.
Hawaii (NE-MW 2005) 2004est.
Malta (CIA the world
fact book 2012) 2011 est.
Egypt (source for left
col. Populstat, 2004
site, right col. CIA
2011) 2001 est.
Labour force by occupation

0.6%
1.9%
97.5% (tourisma 24.3%)
14%
37.5%
48.3%
18%
30%
52%
Agriculture
Industry
Services

1.9%
17.2%
80.9%

Hawaii (NE-MW 2005) 2004 figures


Malta (CIA the world
fact book 2012) 2010 est.
Egypt (source for left col.
Populstat, 2004 site, right
col. CIA 2011) 2010 est.
Share of sector in GDP in

Table 17
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.

3.4%
13.4%
83.2%

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206


Barbados (CIA the world
fact book 2012) 2011 est.

184

Potable water and sewer capacity: It was assumed in the


scenario that the share of water suffered because of the
expanding share claimed by resorts. As for the
sewerage, because the urban villages were accessed
by tourists, the developments would have enhanced
facilities. Thus it is estimated for scenario II that 85% of
households had potable water, and those with access to
adequate sewer were 80% of households, yet still below
the average figures of selected governorates.
Potable water per capita per day is affected by high
rates used by tourists thus estimated at 280 litres/day.
Sewer capacity per capita in the five governorates varies
also between none in the Red Sea to 200 litre/day in
South Sinai. Sanitation is expected to be improved in
the area, yet of moderate capacity. Although an average
of 78 litre/capita/day is suggested by governorate
figures (Table 16, row 19), a figure of 70 litre/day is
estimated.
Energy: It is estimated for the tourism scenario that
energy sources are distributed as follows: fossil fuel
20%, Natural gas 50%, hydro 16%, solar 14% wind 0%,
and biomass 0%. Solar energy is the only renewable
source used, though widely used for household energy,
while commercial, industrial and entertainment facilities are served by non-renewable sources.
5. Urban and rural profile
Household size: It has been discussed earlier that
population diversity leads to different household sizes.
Bedouins have a household size of 6, migrants and
settlers of 5, management staff of 4 (however, they
represent a small number of population). Following the
assumptions made, mean household size is assumed
at five.
Distribution of land use: An estimated number of
households for the scenario are 60,000 households, and
land allocated for agriculture 30,000 feddans. Land
is also allocated for the following: housing 34%,

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

warehouses 3%, industry 4%, research facilities 1%,


commercial and communal services 12%.
Education: Reviewing the EHDR report (2003), the
DHS report (2010) and figures from selected governorates, it is assumed for the tourism scenario that 21.8% of
the population enrol in pre university education. As
such primary students are estimated at 25,600 students,
preparatory and secondary at 39,800 students. Higher
education is estimated at 9% of the age group 2024.
Health profile: Taking an average figure from the
selected governorates, estimates of healthcare are 485
inhabitants/bed and 1240 inhabitants/physician. Also, a
figure of 35 health units is assumed for the area, as it is
expected that health care is improved due to the
presence of tourists.
Cultural facilities: In the tourism scenario, there are
many supportive activities to the tourism industry; as
such cultural centres have a less important role during
tourism seasons (which last for 9 months). It is
estimated that 10 centres are built.
6. Transportation and communication
Paved roads: It is estimated that the developments
include 800 km of paved roads, however, some roads
are needed to realise the loop road from Toshka, through
the oases to Cairo. 660 km are needed to join Toshka to
the oases loop. Also, some routes are needed in the
desert to reach safari locations. Thus an estimate of
2000 km of paved road is made for the scenario.
Telephone lines: An average of the five figures of the
selected governorates (Table 16) is taken resulting in a
figure of 158/1000 household.
Modes of transport: It is assumed that people will
rely on mini buses for transportation between resorts
and residential areas. Buses are used by tourist groups to
visit nearby archaeological sites. The airport is mainly
used for passenger flights. Cruises are also used in the
area to move to nearby temples. 4  4 cars are used for
safaris. Trains are used to transport passengers to nearby
cities. Thus these figures for modes of transport are
assumed for the area: bicycle 10%, private and taxi cars
10%, motorcycle 2%, mini bus 30%, bus 15%, train 7%,
cruise 8%, 4  4 cars 5% and aeroplane 8%. Modes of
freight transport are mainly trucks, followed by trains to
bring in goods that are not produced in the area.
See Table 18 for a summary of figures drawn from
the analysis of scenario III.
As shown, the analysis helps to draw out figures that
describe the scenario enabling the fourth stage of the
USMS, i.e. scenario evaluation. Evaluation of all three
scenarios is shown in Section 4.6 and aims to find out

185

pressure points, tensions and conflict issues within each


scenario. In order to enable stage (iv), a list of targets are
formulated in the next section.
4.5. Setting targets
Based on the selection of urban development capital
indicators in stage (i), specific targets are formulated. In
this process, there is a shift from having an inventory of
an urban development to an assessment of sustainability
where specific targets are defined for each of the
selected indicators enabling insight into whether or not
the predicted impacts will be significant or to what
degree they can be considered positive or negative. In
formulating targets working towards sustainability, one
is confronted again with the problem of defining
sustainability and its standards. The sustainability
literature identifies self-sufficiency as a desirable goal
(Beatley & Manning, 1997; Haughton, 1999; Sale,
1991; Trainer, 1995). It is implied that each city has to
meet the resource needs from its immediate surroundings. However, that demand is unrealistic, it is
appropriate to require that high-consumption, highwaste patterns are reduced as well as high levels of
resource use and waste to limit the damaging ecological
impacts of high demands on the surrounds. Trainer
(1995) describes a conserver society, which is small
scale, cooperative, with a highly self-sufficient local
economy in which people can live well but modestly on
far lower rates of resource consumption than the current
pattern. With that image in mind, the process of target
formulating seeks to define acceptable levels to assign
to the indicators.
As explained, information was drawn from a variety
of sources including governmental documents; studies
and reports by international bodies and independent
organizations; statistics and data sets of established
institutes; and specific theme reports from a number of
countries such as energy use, air quality or water quality
reports. Inferences from national targets of Egypt and of
different countries, references from local surveys for
public preferences as well as tacit knowledge gained
from experiences of interviewees and the researcher
were all used to arrive at the targets. It is worth noting
that target formulating is not a purely scientific process,
knowledge and experience play an important role to
provide a better understanding of the values attached
which might not be easily obtained through scientific
figures. It is also important to acknowledge that setting
sustainability targets does not indicate that if reached, a
certain development has achieved a sustainable state,
rather it indicates that an acceptable goal has been

186

Table 18
scenario III analysis summary.
Lifestyle

Economy

Environment

Urban and rural profile


Area of approx. 1500 km2

Transportation and
communication

Pop. working in tourism 25%


(30,000p)

Upper class 3%

Labour force 39.6% of total


population:

Household size (4)

Paved roads 2500 km

In industry 7% (8400p)
In Agri.: 13% (15,600p)

Upper middle
class 24%

Unemployed: 8.5%
Unemployed graduates: 3%

Potable water 85% of


households
280 litre/day/capita
Sewer capacity 80%
of households

Telephone lines 158/1000


households

Commercial services 15% (18,000p)


In transport and warehousing 10%
(12,000p)
Communal services 30% (36,000p)
Fertility (3 children)

Middle class 25%


Economy 48%

Economy sectors:
Tourism 30%

Energy use:
Fossil fuel (20%)
Natural gas (50%)

Industry 15%

Hydro (16%)

Schools
Primary (25,600 child)
Prep. and sec. (39,800p)
Institutes 2 (2250p)
Health care 35 facilities
485 inhabitant/bed
1240 inhabitant/physician
Cultural centres 10

Mortality (16.4 per 1000 births)

Communal serv. 20%


Commerce 20%

Solar (14%)

Age groups

Transport 12%

Wind (0%)

04 (8.7%) 26,100
514 (16.4%) 49,200
1524 (16.4%) 49,200
2560 (50.5%) 151,000
60+ (8%) 24,000

Agriculture 3%

Biogas (0%)

Water pollution

Commercial and communal


facilities 12%
Research facilities 1%
Cultivated area
30,000 feddans 8%
Hotels, resorts, tourism
villages 37%
Industry 4%
Warehouses area 3%
Housing 34%

Modes for passenger:


Bicycle 10% 44 cars 5%
Private and taxi cars 10%
Motorcycle 2%
Mini bus 30%
Bus 15%
Train 7%
Cruise 8%
Aeroplane 8%
Modes for freight
Trucks 60%
Train 30%
Aeroplane 10%

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Scenario III

Population (300,000)

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

reached where the whole state can be re-evaluated and


targets reviewed.
Some authors have used target intervals or minimum
and maximum threshold values rather than target point
values to avoid uncertainties such as Rotmans et al.
(2000), Nijkamp and Vreeker (2000) and Weik et al.
(2005) or trend target values such as Ravetz (2000).
However, a threshold can be useful to signal a problem
situation, which is conducted in this paper. Innes and
Booher (2000, p. 176) argue that aggregated measures
often have no meaning as they require a weighting
system for which they argue there is no clear basis,
moreover, any aggregated measure reflects a particular
theory or set of value judgements about the society and
what is important, and that may not be shared. They
argue that aggregated measures combine so many
concepts and as such cannot be used to identify what is
problematic or needs attention.
Thus, in this paper, the targets are represented
individually against the list of indicators in order to
avoid such misrepresentation and in order to clearly
identify pressure points caused by a type of development. The next three tables represent the social,
environmental and economic capitals including the
indicators and their targets, ranked by priority to the
sustainability of the new developments on desert
reclaimed land in the South Valley region. A sub-text
which delivers an explanation of each indicator
measurement and how it was derived is available
online (Tables 1921).
Towards sustainable targets for the social capital
Towards sustainable targets for the ecological
capital
Towards sustainable targets for the economic
capital
The previous section has been dedicated to the
formulation of targets for the three capitals of a
development in the South Valley. They are suggested as
figures that act towards the aim of sustainability. To
label them sustainability targets is to suggest that once
these levels are achieved the developments have
reached a sustainable level which is hard to ascertain.
However, these levels have been deduced suggesting an
achievable target which reflects lower levels of
consumption and acceptable levels of services.
In the following section, all three scenarios are
assessed through their three capitals and to conclude the
section, a preliminary evaluation is conducted where
significant pressure points in each scenario are
drawn out.

187

4.6. Scenario assessment and evaluation


Assessing the scenarios against the indicators is the
first step within the fourth stage of the Urban
Sustainable Management System. It involves assigning figures to the indicators of the three capitals of each
scenario. The second step is the evaluation process,
where target figures formulated in the previous section
are set next to the scenario levels as a means to
compare the different levels, a visual medium is
deployed to facilitate the evaluation process. The
visual media used is traffic lights where green
expresses that there is no reason for concern, yellow
expresses an alert sign and red expresses a need for the
reverse of action to reduce negative impacts caused by
any development. This is considered as a visually
appealing approach and an accessible way to communicate to decision-makers the possible state of
affair of different components within the social,
environmental and economic capitals and more
importantly, to flag pressure points that can occur
under any of the three scenarios.
In order to determine in which category each impact
lies, ranges have been identified, these have been
derived from reference points consulting figures from
other governorates, acceptable levels and comparable
levels from other countries used in the target formulation stage. This very much follows the same method of
reasoning and informed judgement used in previous
stages of the USMS. The reference points previously
identified in other stages set ground for ranges of high
impact (red), moderate impact (yellow) and mild or
benign impact (green). An additional dark red
emphasises impacts of grave concern that are considered as major pressure points and are drawn out in the
primary evaluation at the end of this section.
In the following, the assessment and evaluation
process is carried out for the agricultural scenario, the
industrial and the tourism scenario, each featuring
three capitals. The indicator measurements and how
they were reached are explained (details can be found
online). The narrative accounts have enabled the free
exploration of human development and activities
based on existing natural and man-made resources
available in the region. The available resources have
resulted in the economic activity on which the
development is based, and have had a decisive role
in determining the number of population that can be
supported. Each economic base explored has a
different impact on the population structure, life
styles, resource use and consequently an impact on
the environment.

188

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Table 19
Targets for the social capital.
Social capital

Indicator target

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Towards
sustainability

Shelter
(Housing)

Living conditions
Household services

1.25 (5/4)
78%

Safety

Income security

Health

Social co-operation
and hierarchy
Crime
Sanitation

Average number of persons per room


% of households connected to piped water,
sewerage, electricity, telephone
Average number of persons having a
job/household
If exists (T/F)
Safety indication (Number of crimes/1000 population)
Percent of population with adequate sewage disposal
facilities
Solid waste and sanitation capacity per person (litre/day)
% of households with access to safe drinking water
(located within 200 m of the dwelling)
Potable water per capita

1
80%

Drinking water

Healthcare delivery

2
3
2
3
2

Nutritional status

Mortality

Equity

Poverty

3
2

Education

Gender equality
Education level

Population

Literacy
Population change

3
4
3
3

Cultural identity

% of population with access to primary health care facilities


Ratio of inhabitants/bed
Ratio of inhabitants/physician
% of children fully immunized against infectious childhood
diseases
Contraceptive prevalence rate
Nutritional status of children (% of children
underweight/undernourished)
Mortality rate under 5 yrs old
Life expectancy at birth
% of population living below poverty line
Unemployment rate
Ratio of female labour to male labour
Combined basic and secondary enrolment
Sec. Technical as% of total sec.
Adult literacy rate
Population growth rate
Population distribution in formal and informal settlements
(heterogeneity on a scale 19)
Local distinctiveness (satisfaction, sense of place)
(on a scale 19)
Local knowledge dependence (on a scale 19)

2
T

70 litre/day
90%
275 litre/day
(100 m3/year)
90%
400
400
98%
67%
1.8%
10/1000 births
70
8%
7%
1:1
90%
75%
80%
1.8%
99% in formal
settlements
(8) High
(6) Above average

See supplementary data.

4.6.1. Scenario I an agricultural based


development
The Social Capital (scenario I) (Table 22)
The Ecological Capital (scenario I) (Table 23)
The Economic Capital (scenario I) (Table 24)
4.6.2. Scenario II an industrial based development
The Social Capital (scenario II) (Table 25)
The Ecological Capital (scenario II) (Table 26)
The Economic Capital (scenario II) (Table 27)

4.6.3. Scenario III a tourism based development


The Social Capital (scenario III) (Table 28)
The Ecological Capital (scenario III) (Table 29)
The Economic Capital (scenario III) (Table 30)
Stage (iv) of the USMS is concluded by the
evaluation in which figures from the assessment are
compared to the target and their severity evaluated. It
has been conducted with the assessment in the previous
tables for the sake of brevity. The assessment gives
mostly a quantitative account of the developments and

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

189

Table 20
Targets for the ecological capital.
Ecological capital

Indicator target

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Towards sustainability

Atmosphere

Air quality

SO2 emissions (mg/m3)


NO2 emissions (mg/m3)
VOCs emissions/populated land area
Particulate Matter PM10
Vehicles/populated land area
Emissions of green house gases:
Carbon lifestyle efficiency (CO2 emissions/capita)
O3 emissions (mg/m3)

50 (mg/m3) annual mean


50(mg/m3) annual mean
4 tonnes/km2
40(mg/m3) annual mean
4.5/km2
0.5 tonnes/capita

Climate change

Ozone layer depletion

Water

Water quantity

Water quality

Land

Agriculture

Urbanization

Biodiversity

Noise

Fishery
Noise level

Urban green space

Green structures

Ecosystem
Species

Annual withdrawal of ground and surface water


as a percent of total available water
Water consumption/person (litre/day)
Dissolved oxygen concentration (milligrams of O2)
Phosphorus concentration (mg P/litre)
Total oxidized nitrogen and nitrate (N/litre)
Suspended solids (mg/L)
BOD in water bodies (kg of BOD emissions/km3
of water)
Arable and permanent crop land (1000 fed.)
Fertilizer consumption (kg)/feddan of arable land
Use of agriculture pesticides/feddan of crop land
Percent of informal settlements to urban formal
settlements
% of protected area to total area
Abundance of selected key species
% of threatened species
% of fish catch/day
% of population exposed to noise level 5560 dB
% of green area to built area
Green area/capita in urbanised areas

120 (mg/m3) in average


time of 8 h
Ratio 0.61
61%
410 litre/day (150 m3/year)
9mg/L
0.1 mg/L
7 mg/L
5 mg/L
9 ppm
100
80 kg/feddan
0.5 kg/feddan
1%

(7:00 to 23:00) 20%


(23:00 to 7:00) 3%
40%
3040 m2

See supplementary data.

where appropriate, scores to reflect qualitative measures. Assigning figures, both for the scenarios and
sustainability targets has been an exhaustive process.
Reasoning and judgement based on knowledge and
experience have guided this process, where decisions
about the various levels and justification of the results
were conducted in a transparent manner such that the
lists of indicators representing the three capitals
produce a coherent account of each scenario. Evaluation
involved the comparison of indicator measurement
to the set target to reveal the pressure points in
capitals of each scenario and allow for a comparison
across the scenarios where the indicators serve as a
common base.
The evaluation deployed a visual medium to enable
users to identify the indicators that can cause concern
for any scenario. Indicators which fall under the red

light are considered as pressure points. This informs


decision-makers as to what problems and tension points
might occur and thus need to be addressed within the
planning stage of the new developments in hope to
avoid irreversible damage to the environment as well as
plan efficiently for social and economic needs of the
settlers. The evaluation and visual communication of
pressure points make this an accessible system to
decision-makers in an aim to encourage a step towards
committing to the sustainability of urbanrural developments.
Identification of the severance of the impact for most
indicators could be carried out because of the reference
points that had been identified in the analysis and target
selection processes. However, a few indicators mainly
in the economic capital were problematic such as the
percentage of labour in each economic sector and the

190

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Table 21
Targets for the economic capital.
Economic capital

Indicator measure

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Towards sustainability

Infrastructure

Services

Energy

Roads
Renewable energy

Potable water produced/capita (litre/day)


Sewerage capacity/capita (litre/day)
Consumed Electricity/capita (KWH/year)
Communication; telephone lines/1000 household
Inhabitants/Km of paved road
Renewable energy production as a percent of total
energy consumption
Intensity of energy use (mega Joules, MJ)
(a) Residential (MJ/household)
(b) Commercial/service (MJ/m2)
(c) Manufacturing (MJ/unit output of manufacturing)
(d) Transportation (MJ/tonne-km, MJ/passenger-km)
Annual energy consumption/capita

275 litre/day
70 litre/day
1000 kWH/year
187
500
35%

Energy efficiency

2
2

Consumption and
production patterns

Material consumption
Waste generation and
management

Transportation

2
3

Intensity of material use (kg/LE of local revenue)


Industrial and municipal waste generated (kg/capita/year)
Waste management:
% of waste water undergoing treatment
% of solid waste
(a) Disposed to sanitary landfill
(b) Incinerated
(c) Disposed to open dump
(d) Recycled
(e) Burnt openly
(f) Other reuse
Waste recycling and reuse (%)
Distance travelled per capita (km/year)
% of work trips undertaken by
(a) Private car
(b) Bus or minibus
(c) Train
(d) Motorcycle
(e) Bicycle
(f) Foot
% of labour in economic sectors

Labour market

Structure

2
3

Economic structure

Unemployment
Diversity

% of unemployment
Revenues of different economic sectors as a % of total
revenues of the local economy

Tourism sector

Leisure and hospitality


Historical assets

Number of beds/tourist nights


Number of historical sites

15 GJ/HH
500 MJ/m2
15 GJ/tonne
1.2 MJ/pass km
2.7 MJ/t km
0.75 toe/capita
(31 GJ/capita)

300
99%
35%
20%
4.5%
35%
0.5%
5%
40%
6240 km/year
4%
55%
10%
5%
20%
6%
10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10% com/business.
50% services
1500 beds/100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)

See supplementary data.

share of sectors in the local revenue as the figures


selected towards sustainability are indicative rather than
conclusive. The judgement of the balance of impacts by
change of one specific sector is complex and more
dependent on the vision for an area as perceived by
decision-makers.

5. Findings and discussion


The final stage of the system; namely the assessment
and evaluation, revealed the pressure points in capitals
of each scenario, provided insights into possible
impacts of different scenarios and highlighted the

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

191

Table 22
Assessment of the ecological capital of the agricultural scenario.

Social Capital
Needs
priority
1

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Target

Shelter
(Housing)

Living condions

Average number of persons per


room
% of households connected to
piped water, sewerage, electricity,
telephone
Average number of persons having
a job/household
If exists (T/ F)

1.4

1.25 (5/4)

64%

78%

1.5

Safety indicaon (Number of


crimes / 1000 populaon)
Percent of populaon with
adequate sewage disposal facilies
Solid waste and sanitaon capacity
per person (litre/day)
% of households with access to
safe drinking water (located within
200 m of the dwelling)
Potable
water
per
capita
(litre/day)
% of populaon with access to
primary health care facilies
Rao of inhabitants/bed
Rao of inhabitants/physician

60%

80%

45 litre/day

70 litre/day

90%

90%

220 litre/day (80


3
m /year)

275 litre/day (100


3
m /year)

70%

90%

475
1,370
88%

400
400
98%

58%
5.5%

67%
1.8%

14.7/1000 births
66
15%

10/1000
70
8%

15%

7%

2: 1

1: 1

80%

90%

69%

75%

70%
2.6%
92% in formal
selements
(5) average

80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high

(2) Low

(6) above average

Household services

Safety

Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime

Health

Sanitaon

Drinking water

Healthcare delivery

3
2
3
2

Nutrional status

Mortality

Equity

3
2

Indicator measure

Poverty

Gender equality
Educaon

Educaon level

% of children fully immunized


infecous
childhood
against
diseases
Contracepve prevalence rate
Nutrional status of children (% of
underweight/
children
undernourished)
Mortality rate under 5 yrs old
Life expectancy at birth
% of populaon living below
poverty line
Unemployment rate
Rao of female labour to male
labour
Combined basic and secondary
enrolment
Sec. Technical as% of total sec.

3
4
3

Populaon

See supplementary data.

Literacy
Populaon change

Adult literacy rate


Populaon growth rate
Populaon distribuon in formal
and informal selements

Cultural identy

Local disncveness (sasfacon,


sense of place)
(on a scale 1-9)
Local knowledge dependence (on
a scale 1-9)

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Table 23
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the agricultural scenario.

Ecological Capital
Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Atmosphere

Air quality

Climate change

Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty

Water

Indicator measure
Indicator

Land

Agriculture

Urbanizaon

Biodiversity

Noise

Urban
space

See supplementary data.

Ecosystem
Species
Fishery
Noise level

green

Green structures

Target

5 ( g/m ) annual
mean

NO2 emissions ( g/m )

15 ( g/m ) annual
mean

VOCs emissions / populated land


area
Parculate Maer PM10

1 t/ km

4 t/ km

30( g/m3) annual

40( g/m3) annual

mean

mean

SO2 emissions ( g/m )

Vehicles / populated land area


Emissions of green house gases:
Carbon lifestyle eciency (CO2
emissions / capita)
3
O3 emissions ( g/m )

50 ( g/m ) annual
mean
3

50( g/m ) annual


mean
2

2 / km
1 t/ capita

4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita

140( g/m3) in

120 ( g/m3) in

average me of 8 hrs


available water 7.5
3
billion m
3
used 5.5 billion m
rao 0.7,
percent 73%
3
8400 m /year
(23,013 litre/day)

average me of 8 hrs


Rao of 0.61

Dissolved oxygen concentraon


(milligrams of O2)
Phosphorus concentraon (P/litre)

6.5 mg/L

9mg/L

0.6 mg/L

0.1 mg/L

Total oxidized nitrogen and nitrate


(N/litre)
Suspended solids
BOD in water bodies (kg of BOD
3
emissions/km of water)

10 mg/L

7 mg/L

15 mg/L
30 ppm

Arable and permanent crop land


(1000 fed.)
Ferlizer consumpon (kg) / feddan
of arable land
Use of agriculture pescides/feddan
of crop land
Percent of informal selements to
urban formal selements
% of protected area to total area
Abundance of selected key species
% of threatened species
% of sh catch / day
% of populaon exposed to noise
level above the standards
% of green area to built area
Green area/ capita in urbanised
areas

502

5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100

100 kg/feddan

80 kg/feddan

1 kg/ feddan

0.5 kg/feddan

8%

1%

---------

-----------

Annual withdrawal of ground and


surface water as a percent of total
available water

Water
consumpon
(litre/day)
Water quality

Scenario level

/person

150 m /year
(410 litre/day)

------

------

(7:00 to 23:00) 20%


(23:00 to 7:00) 1%

(7:00 to 23:00) 20%


(23:00 to 7:00) 3%

60%
2
30 m

40%
2
30 40 m

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

193

Table 24
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the agricultural scenario.

Economic Capital

Indicator measure

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Target

Infrastructure

Services

220 litre/day

275

45

70

450 KWH/year

1000 KWH/year

209

187

600
37%

500
35%

20 GJ
450 MJ
5 GJ/ton

15 GJ/household
500 MJ
15GJ/ton

Structure

Potable water produced/capita


(litre/day)
Sewerage
capacity/capita
(litre/day)
Consumed
Electricity/
capita
(KWH/year)
Communicaon;
telephone
lines/1000 household
Inhabitants/Km of paved road
Renewable energy producon as a
of
total
energy
percent
consumpon
Intensity of energy use (mega
joules mj)
a) residenal (mj / household)
b)
commercial/
agricultural/
2
service (mj/m )
c) manufacturing (mj/unit output
of manufacturing)
d) transportaon (mj/tonne-km,
mj/passenger-km)
Annual
energy
consumpon
/capita
Intensity of material use (kg/LE of
local revenue)
Industrial and municipal waste
generated (kg / capita /year)
Waste management:
% of waste water undergoing
treatment
% of solid waste
a) disposed to sanitary landll
b) incinerated
c) disposed to open dump
d) recycled
e) burnt openly
f) composted
Waste recycling and reuse (%)
Distance travelled per capita
(km/year)
% of trips undertaken by
a) private car
b) bus or minibus
c) train
d) motorcycle
e) bicycle
f) foot
g) other
% of labour in economic sectors

Unemployment

% of unemployment

Diversity

Revenues of dierent economic


sectors as a % of total revenues of
the local economy

Energy

Roads
Renewable energy

Energy eciency

Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management

Consumpon
and producon
paerns

Transportaon

2
4

Labour market

Economic
structure

1.2 MJ/pass.km,
2.7 MJ/tkm
0.6 toe/capita

0.75 toe/capita (31


GJ/capita)

-----

------

250

300

50%

99%

40%
8%
10%
17%
10%
15%

38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%

36%
5616

40%
6240

4%
52%
5%
2%
27%
10%
0%

4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%

45% agr.
23% agro-indu. 12%
comm.
20% trans.&serv.
15%

10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%

30% agr.
25% agro-indu.
25%comm.&ware.

10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business.

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Table 24 (Continued )

Tourism sector

Accommodaon
Historical assets

Number of beds/ tourist nights


Number of historical sites

20% trans.&serv.
450 b/ 7,500 tn
2

50% services
1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)

See supplementary data.

tensions and conflicts emerging with varying economic


bases. In the following section the most prominent
pressure points shall be outlined, and a brief of findings
of each scenario.
5.1. Agricultural scenario
The most significant pressure point in this scenario is
the water consumption per person (indicator of water
quantity in the ecological capital). Water consumption/
person is measured at 8400 cubic metres per year where
the target of consumption is set at 150 cubic metre per
year (56 times more than the target) because of the use
of water for irrigation.
However, there are indicators that fall short of the
targets and others that fare better in each of the three
capitals. These are presented as follows.
Social capital: Household services are below the
target by 17%, especially sanitation which is poor,
safety scores highest where social structure is strong
and crime level is low where there is a strong sense of
community cooperation, health care delivery, however
is below the target due to the remoteness of the area.
Poverty is highest due to poor income levels, however in
terms of gender equality female labour has a higher
ratio of involvement. In terms of local distinctiveness
and knowledge dependence the score is average and low
due to the various origins of migrants and to the
introduction of new means of cultivation.
Ecological capital: Air quality indicators all show
that emission levels are very low, although carbon
dioxide is higher than the set target as well as ozone
levels. Water quantity was revealed as a key pressure
point, in both measures (high water stress). Water
quality is also threatened where most indicators show
polluting levels due to poor drainage. It is expected that
biodiversity would be affected, though it could not be
measured. This results from the dramatic change in the
habitat, on the other hand the newly created habitat
would introduce and promote new species to the area.
Noise levels are at target if not lower and urban green
spaces exceed targets.
Economic capital: Infrastructure provision is reasonable, although sewerage is lagging behind. Renewable
energy is efficiently used and exceeds target. Energy

efficiency scores well too, where consumption levels are


mostly low. Waste generation is low, however, wastewater is not used efficiently especially in irrigation,
whereas waste recycling and reuse scores highly, yet
does not reach the target. Transportation scores are high
where distance travelled is less which is an indication of
the proximity of related activities, and most modes used
are environmentally friendly. Labour market indicators
reflect high unemployment levels as there are not
enough jobs generated by agriculture, and revenues are
highly dependent on agriculture.

5.2. Industrial scenario


The most significant pressure points in this scenario
are (i) air quality where all emission levels are high as
well as carbon dioxide levels (nine times more than
target), (ii) energy where the manufacturing sector
consumes almost three times the set target, (iii) day
noise levels (three times more) and (iv) distances
travelled per capita (six times more than the target).
Other indicator scores are presented below.
Social capital: Household services are below the
target by 12.6%, safety scores lowest where social
structure is weak and crime level is relatively high in the
absence of community cooperation, health care delivery
although below the target is more efficient as businesses
provide health care. Poverty is lowest where job
opportunities are available, however in terms of gender
equality female labour is a quarter that of male labour
due to a lack of opportunities. In terms of local
distinctiveness and knowledge dependence the score is
low and high respectively due to the varying origins of
migrants and to the nature of mining and quarrying.
Ecological capital: Air quality indicators all show
that emission levels are high, almost twice the set target,
moreover carbon dioxide is nine times the set target.
Water is available and the ratio is well below the stress
levels, however consumption levels are still higher than
required. Water quality is fairly good except for the
suspended solids and BOD, which is a result of poor
sanitation. Biodiversity is affected because of habitat
change, a result of quarrying and excavations. Day noise
levels are 3 times higher than the set target and urban

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195

Table 25
Assessment of the social capital of the industrial scenario.

Social Capital
Needs
priority
1

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Target

Shelter
(Housing)

Living condions

Average number of persons per


room
% of households connected to
piped water, sewerage, electricity,
telephone
Average number of persons having
a job/household
If exists (T/ F)

1.2

1.25 (5/4)

63%

78%

F (weak)

Safety indicaon (Number of


crimes / 1000 populaon)
Percent of populaon with
adequate
sewage
disposal
facilies
Solid waste and sanitaon capacity
per person (litre/day)
% of households with access to
safe drinking water (located within
200 m of the dwelling)
Potable water per capita

60%

80%

60 litre/day

70 litre/day

85%

90%

250 litre/day (91.25


3
m /year)

275 litre/day (100


3
m /year)

% of populaon with access to


primary health care facilies
Rao of inhabitants/bed
Rao of inhabitants/physician

80%

90%

410
1,385
90%

400
400
98%

62%
6%

67%
1.8%

22.5/1000 births
67.5

10/1000
70

8% of households

8%

10%
1:4

7%
1: 1

86%

90%

69%

75%

75%
2.0%
80% in formal
selements
(3) Low

80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high

(7) high

(6) above average

Household services

Safety

Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime

Health

Sanitaon

Drinking water

Healthcare delivery

3
2
3
2

Nutrional status

Mortality

Equity

3
2

Poverty

Gender equality

% of children fully immunized


infecous
childhood
against
diseases
Contracepve prevalence rate
Nutrional status of children (% of
under
weight
children
/undernourished)
Mortality rate under 5 yrs old
Life expectancy at birth
% of populaon/households living
below poverty line
Unemployment rate
Rao of female labour to male
labour
Combined basic and secondary
enrolment
Sec. Technical as% of total sec

Educaon

Educaon level

Populaon

Literacy
Populaon change

Adult literacy rate


Populaon growth rate
Populaon distribuon in formal
and informal selements

Cultural identy

Local disncveness (sasfacon,


sense of place) (on a scale 1-9)
Local knowledge dependence (on
a scale 1-9)

3
4
3

Indicator measure

Component

3
4

See supplementary data.

green space though an essential requirement is well


below the target.
Economic capital: Infrastructure provision is reasonable, although sewerage capacity has not reached

the target. Renewable energy is not widely used,


consumed electricity per capita is twice the target, also
in terms of energy consumption industrial levels are
almost three times as much as the set target, where per

196

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Table 26
Evaluation and assessment of the ecological capital of the industrial scenario.

Ecological Capital
Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Atmosphere

Air quality

Climate change

Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty

Water

Water quality

Land

Agriculture

3
3

Urbanizaon
Biodiversity

Ecosystem
Species
Fishery

Noise

Urban
space

Noise level
green

Green structures

Indicator measure
Indicator

Scenario level

Target

70 g/m3

50 ( g/m ) annual
mean

NO2 emissions ( g/m ) / populated


land area
VOCs emissions / populated land
area
Parculate Maer PM10

90 g/m3

50( g/m ) annual


mean

Vehicles / populated land area


Emissions of green house gases:
Carbon lifestyle eciency (CO2
emissions / capita)
3
O3 emissions ( g/m )/ populated
land area
Annual withdrawal of ground and
surface water as a percent of total
available water
Water
consumpon
/person
(litre/day)

5 / km
4.5 ton/capita

4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita

150 g/m3

120 ( g/m ) in
average me of 8 hrs

Rao 0.04
3.86%

Rao of 0.61

524 litre/day
(191.25 m3/year)
6.5 mg/L

410 litre/day (150


3
m /year)

9mg/L

SO2 emissions ( g/m ) / populated


land area*

Dissolved oxygen concentraon


(milligrams of O2)
Phosphorus concentraon (P/litre)

4.5 t/ km

4 t/ km

70 g/m3

40( g/m ) annual


mean

0.6 mg/L

0.1 mg/L

Total oxidized nitrogen and nitrate


(N/litre)
Suspended solids
BOD in water bodies (kg of BOD
3
emissions/km of water)

7 mg/L

7 mg/L

20 mg/L
20 ppm

Arable and permanent crop land


(1000 fed.)
Ferlizer consumpon
kg / feddan of arable land
Use of agriculture pescides
/feddan of crop land
Percent of informal selements to
urban formal selements
% of protected area to total area
Abundance of selected key species
% of threatened species
% of sh catch / day

5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100

150 kg/feddan

80 kg/feddan

1.5 kg/feddan

0.5 kg/feddan

20%

1%

% of populaon exposed to noise


level above the standards
% of green area to built area
Green area/ capita in urbanised
areas

(7:00 to 23:00) 60%


(23:00 to 7:00) 1%

(7:00 to 23:00) 20%


(23:00 to 7:00) 3%

10%
2
10 m

40%
2
30 40 m

--------

-------------

See supplementary data.

capita level also rises to the same high level. Waste


generation is higher than target and waste water
treatment scores very low, whereas waste recycling
and reuse is half that set due to inefficient management. In transportation distance travelled per capita
is dramatically higher due to the dispersion of
industrial sites, thus an indication of the lack of
compactness, and consequently the use of modes that
generate high levels of pollutants. Labour market
indicators reflect lower unemployment levels and
revenues are concentrated in the industrial, transportation and service sectors.

5.3. Tourism scenario


The most significant pressure points in this scenario
are (i) night noise levels (ten times more), (ii) waste
(twice the set target), (iii) consumption level of energy
(2.4 times), and (iv) transportation where the distances
travelled are 2.5 times the set target and modes used
reflect unsustainable levels.
Other key indicators in each capital are presented
below.
Social capital: Household services though below
the target by 9% are provided at better levels than the

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

197

Table 27
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the industrial scenario.

Economic Capital

Indicator measure

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Sustainability level

Infrastructure

Services

Potable water produced/capita


(litre/day)
Sewerage
capacity/capita
(litre/day)
Consumed
Electricity/
capita
(KWH/year)
Communicaon;
telephone
lines/1000 household
Inhabitants/Km of paved road
Renewable energy producon as a
percent
of
total
energy
consumpon
Intensity of energy use (mega
joules mj)
a) residenal (mj / household)
2
b) commercial/service (mj/m )
c) manufacturing (mj/unit output of
manufacturing)
d) transportaon (mj/tonne-km,
mj/passenger-km)
Annual energy consumpon /capita

250 litre/day

275

60

70

2000 KWH/year

1000 KWH/year

116.5

187

200
23%

500
35%

17 GJ/HH
2
400 MJ/ m

15 GJ/household
2
500 MJ/ m

40 GJ/t

15GJ/ton
2.7 MJ/tkm
1.2 MJ/pass.km,
0.75 toe/capita (31.4
GJ/capita)

Intensity of material use (kg/LE of


local revenue)
Industrial and municipal waste
generated (kg / capita /year)
Waste management:
% of waste water undergoing
treatment
% of solid waste
a) disposed to sanitary landll
b) incinerated
c) disposed to open dump
d) recycled
e) burnt openly
f) other
Waste recycling and reuse (%)
Distance travelled per capita
(km/year)
% of trips undertaken by
a) private car
b) bus or minibus
c) train
d) motorcycle
e) bicycle
f) foot
g)other
% of labour in economic sectors

-----

Energy

Roads
Renewable energy

Energy eciency

Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management

Consumpon
and producon
paerns

Transportaon

Labour market

2
4

Economic
structure

Tourism sector

See supplementary data.

Structure

Unemployment
Diversity

% of unemployment
Revenues of dierent economic
sectors as a % of total revenues of
the local economy

Accommodaon
Historical assets

2.5 toe/capita
(104.7 GJ/capita)

400

300

20%

99%

50%
20%
12%
15%
3%
0%

38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%

17%
36400

40%
6240

4%
73%
10%
2%
10%
1%
0%

4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%

12% agr.
48% indu.& man.
15%comm.
17 % trans
8% services
10%
5% agr.
55% indu.
10%comm.
30% trans.&serv.

10% agriculture
20% industry
15%com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business
50% services

Number of beds/ tourist nights


Number of historical sites

250 b, 5,000 tn
0

1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)

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Table 28
Evaluation and assessment of the social capital of the tourism scenario.

Social Capital
Needs
priority
1

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Target

Shelter
(Housing)

Living condions

Average number of persons per


room
% of households connected to
piped water, sewerage, electricity,
telephone
Average number of persons having
a job/household
If exists (T/ F)

1.1

1.25 (5/4)

69%

78%

Safety indicaon (Number of


crimes / 1000 populaon)
Percent of populaon with
adequate sewage disposal facilies
Solid waste and sanitaon capacity
per person (litre/day)
% of households with access to safe
drinking water (located within 200
m of the dwelling)
Potable
water
per
capita
(litre/day)
% of populaon with access to
primary health care facilies
Rao of inhabitants/bed
Rao of inhabitants/physician

80%

80%

70 litre/day

70 litre/day

85%

90%

280 litre/day (102


3
m /year)

275 litre/day (100


3
m /year)

90%

90%

485
1240
90%

400
400
98%

60%
5%

67%
1.8%

16.4/1000
67
10%

10/1000
70
8%

8.5%
1:1.5

7%
1: 1

93%

90%

55%

75%

80%
2%
95% in formal
selements
(2) low

80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high

(7) high

(6) above average

Household services

Safety

Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime

Health

Sanitaon

Drinking water

Healthcare delivery

3
2
3

Nutrional status

Mortality

Equity

3
2

Poverty

Gender equality

% of children fully immunized


against
infecous
childhood
diseases
Contracepve prevalence rate
Nutrional status of children (% of
under
children
weight/undernourished)
Mortality rate under 5 yrs old
Life expectancy at birth
% of populaon/households living
below poverty line
Unemployment rate
Rao of female labour to male
labour
Combined basic and secondary
enrolment
Sec. Technical as% of total sec.

Educaon

Educaon level

Populaon

Literacy
Populaon change

Adult literacy rate


Populaon growth rate
Populaon distribuon in formal
and informal selements

Cultural identy

Local disncveness (sasfacon,


sense of place) (on a scale 1-9)
Local knowledge dependence (on a
scale 1-9)

3
4
3

Indicator measure

Component

3
4

See supplementary data.

other scenarios, safety scores low where the tourism


activity presents high risks and is reflected by the
number of persons having a job per household
(a quarter of the set target due to the fluctuation in
tourist nights), social structure is affected by external
influences, yet, crime level is controlled (twice the set
target) because of increased policing. Health care

delivery is more efficient as businesses provide


health care and higher levels of services. In terms
of gender equality, female labour is almost equal to
that of male labour as the industry provides
opportunities for both. In terms of local distinctiveness the score is low and knowledge dependence the
score is high.

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

199

Table 29
Evaluation and assessment of the ecological capital of the tourism scenario.

Ecological Capital
Needs
priority
1

Component
Atmosphere

Sub-component
Air quality

Climate change

Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty

Water

Water quality

Land

Agriculture

3
3

Urbanizaon
Biodiversity

Ecosystem
Species
Fishery

Noise

Urban
space

Noise level
green

Green structures

Indicator measure
Indicator

Scenario level

Target

70 g/m3

50 ( g/m ) annual
mean

NO2 emissions ( g/m ) / populated


land area
VOCs emissions / populated land
area
Parculate Maer PM10

60 g/m3

50( g/m ) annual


mean

Vehicles / populated land area


Emissions of green house gases:
Carbon lifestyle eciency (CO2
emissions / capita)
3
O3 emissions ( g/m )/ populated
land area
Annual withdrawal of ground and
surface water as a percent of total
available water
Water
consumpon
/person
(litre/day)
Dissolved oxygen concentraon
(milligrams of O2)
Phosphorus concentraon (P/litre)

6/ km
2 ton/capita

4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita

120 g/m3

120 ( g/m ) in
average me of 8 hrs

Rao of 0.03
Percent of 2.88%

Rao of 0.61

655 litre/day (240


m /year)

410 litre/day (150


3
m /year)

8 mg/L

9mg/L

SO2 emissions ( g/m ) / populated


land area*

3.5 t/ km

4 t/ km

50 g/m3

40( g/m ) annual


mean

0.2 mg/L

0.1 mg/L

Total oxidized nitrogen and nitrate


(N/litre)
Suspended solids
BOD in water bodies (kg of BOD
3
emissions/km of water)

5 mg/L

7 mg/L

10 mg/L
6 ppm

Arable and permanent crop land


(1000 fed.)
Ferlizer cons.(kg) / feddan of
arable land
Use of agriculture pescides/feddan
of crop land (tons/10 feddan)
Percent of informal selements to
urban formal selements
% of protected area to total area

5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100

150 kg/feddan

80 kg/feddan

1.5 kg/feddan

0.5 kg/feddan

5%

1%

--------

Abundance of selected key species


% of threatened species
% of sh catch / day

---------

-------------

---------

-------

% of populaon exposed to noise


level above the standards
% of green area to built area
Green area/ capita in urbanised
areas

(7:00 to 23:00) 5%
(23:00 to 7:00) 30%

(7:00 to 23:00) 20%


(23:00 to 7:00) 3%

20%
2
20 m

40%
2
30 40 m

See supplementary data.

Ecological capital: Air quality indicators show


emission levels above target, where carbon dioxide is 4
times the set target. Water is available and the ratio is
well below the stress levels because the number of
tourist nights is not very high, however consumption
levels are still higher than required. Water quality is
fairly good. Biodiversity is affected because of habitat
change, a result of archaeological excavations, camping
and safaris. Day noise levels are quite low, however
night noise levels are 10 times higher than the set target

and the value of the indicator of urban green space is


below the target.
Economic capital: Infrastructure is well provided,
consumed electricity per capita is higher than the target
and renewable energy is used greatly, though still below
target. In terms of energy consumption commercial
consumption is quite high (2.4 times the set target)
where the per capita level also rises to the same high
level. Waste generation is high (twice the target)
and wastewater is not used efficiently in irrigation,

200

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Table 30
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the tourism scenario.

Economic Capital

Indicator measure

Needs
priority

Component

Sub-component

Indicator

Scenario level

Target

Infrastructure

Services

Potable water produced/capita


(litre/day)
Sewerage
capacity/capita
(litre/day)
Consumed Electricity/ capita
(KWH/year)
Communicaon;
telephone
lines/1000 household
Inhabitants/Km of paved road
Renewable energy producon as
a percent of total energy
consumpon
Intensity of energy use (mega
joules mj)
a) residenal (mj / household)
2
b) commercial/service (mj/m )
c) manufacturing (mj/unit output
of manufacturing)
d) transportaon (mj/tonne-km,
mj/passenger-km)
Annual energy consumpon
/capita
Intensity of material use (kg/LE of
local revenue)
Industrial and municipal waste
generated (kg / capita /year)
Waste management:
% of waste water undergoing
treatment
% of solid waste
a) disposed to sanitary landll
b) incinerated
c) disposed to open dump
d) recycled
e) burnt openly
f) other
Waste recycling and reuse (%)
Distance travelled per capita
(km/year)
% of trips undertaken by
a) private car
b) bus or minibus
c) train
d) motorcycle
e) bicycle
f) foot
g) other
% of labour in economic sectors

280

275

70

70

1500 KWH/year

1000 KWH/year

158

187

120
30%

500
35%

20GJ/HH
2
1200 MJ/m

15 GJ/household
2
500 MJ/m

0.5 GJ/ton

1.7 toe/capita
(62 GJ/capita)

15GJ/ton
1.2 MJ/pass.km,
2.7 MJ/tkm
0.75 toe/capita
(31.4 GJ/capita)

-----

------

600

300

50%

99%

50%
5%
20%
10%
15%
0%

38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%

10%
16560

40%
6240

10%
45%
7%
2%
10%
5%
21%

4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%

13% agriculture
7% industry
15% com
10% transport
55% services
8.5%
3% agriculture
15% industry
20%com/business.

10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business.

Energy

Roads
Renewable energy

Energy eciency

Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management

Consumpon
and producon
paerns

Transportaon

Labour market

2
4

Economic
structure

Structure

Unemployment
Diversity

% of unemployment
Revenues of dierent economic
sectors as a % of total revenues of
the local economy

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

201

Table 30 (Continued )

Tourism sector

Accommodaon
Historical assets

Number of beds/ tourist nights


Number of historical sites

60% services
2000b/100,000 tn
9

50% services
1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)

See supplementary data.

moreover waste recycling and reuse is low (less than a


third of the set target). In transportation, the distance
travelled per capita is high due to the trips and activities
of tourists which take place deep into the desert as
attractive sites are a long way from key centres, and
consequently high levels of pollutants and disturbance
to the habitat are generated. Labour market indicators
reflect unemployment levels above the target and
revenues are highly dependent on tourism which has a
high level of risk.
5.4. Summary
Overall, the findings confirm some assumptions,
such as pollution and waste problems associated with
industry and tourism and drainage problems with
agriculture. However, the magnitude of these problems
was greater than expected. Agriculture serves the social
structure where communities have a shared experience
and cooperative nature, however services are poorer and
unemployment is higher. Environmentally, this scenario
is cleaner and greener, however, water quality and
quantity suffer from agricultural practices. Distribution
of small plots of land to families is a luring prospect to
migrants, however, it is likely to be economically
unviable, where the desert conditions call for large plots
of land to be economically feasible. Industry on the
other hand brings in businesses which advance service
delivery, and there is an opportunity for complementing
and supporting industry to evolve. However, the
environmental conditions threaten the inhabitants and
the natural habitat. The nature and remoteness of the
industries impact the towns, often leaving them deserted
further reducing the appeal of the area. Tourism does
provide job opportunities, however there is no guarantee
as to the constant flow of tourists upon which the
development mainly survives, which in turn reduces the
sense of security. The social capital gains in relation to
services and equity; however, this is offset by impacts
on cultural bonds and customs. Also in the tourism
scenario previous experience suggests that environmental measures are usually overridden by economic
priorities, which can lead to the deterioration of the
main asset unless strong management and institutional
enforcement is set in place.

The low priority accorded to the environment is clear


under any economic base, where the economic
dimension is the most influential. In a developing
country context the environmental benefits need to be
coupled with economic benefits (which subsequently
impact the social capital and quality of life), in order to
promote sustainability.
6. Conclusion
Building a Sustainable Management System that
would assist planners and policy makers to reach a
sustainable city is a major challenge due to the
diversified range of environmental, economic and
social elements yielding to the complex nature of
urban developments and due to the many functions and
aims of a sustainable city. Rotmans et al. (2000) confirm
that city management has become a complex undertaking due to processes such as economic and political
globalisation, technological development, and advances
in knowledge about cities and the environment. Yet to
cities in the South, reasons adhering to the complexity
of city management are different. Demographic factors,
combined with poverty and lack of access to resources
and unsustainable patterns of production and consumption causing and exacerbating problems of environmental degradation and resource depletion are more
pressing issues. Moreover, rather than advances in
knowledge, the lack of data and trends are major factors
that inhibit sustainable development.
The work undertaken in this paper aimed to develop
a means by which the planning decision making process
for new developments on desert reclaimed land takes
into account environmental, social and economic
aspects at the outset to act towards sustainability. The
USMS has provided such means, it enabled the
operationalisation of a concept of sustainability relevant
to the developing world, one that does not undermine
the economy, advocates prudent use of resources and
overcomes limitations of full public participation.
Rather than only focus on developing the system, the
research also aimed to discover pressure points resulting
from development based on different economic bases.
While the output of the proposed system helps to
envisage a sustainable urban development in the

202

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

Southern Valley region of Egypt, the process used to


reach that aim reflects on different issues of sustainability of urban developments. In other words, the
research is region specific but engages in the worldwide
debate of the sustainable city.
The USMS has contributed to the paradigm of
sustainable urban management in three significant
ways. It has provided a consistent set of indicators that
resonates with international standards and with
national concerns yet is of a local scale. The set
captures concerns of settlers and various stakeholders,
prioritizing issues of concern. Surprisingly, units for
the indicators were not easily obtainable, the set has
provided these. Secondly, the USMS has overcome data
unavailability by using national and governorate
figures as a baseline and comparable figures from
other areas in other countries that hold similarities, as
well as overcoming the obstacle of knowledge sharing
by collating and synthesizing different forms of
knowledge (expert, sectoral and tacit). Using scenarios
creatively, varying the economic base is a departure
from other studies that use scenarios of business as
usual (BAU), policy scenarios and sustainable development (SD), or projections of a certain trend. Hence,
the USMS has provided methods overcoming difficulties faced in developing countries. Finally, the USMS
does not only provide an evaluative framework, it also
implements it and engages with questions of sustainable levels and values, thereby uncovering pressure
points presented by each economic base, providing
valuable information for decision makers of newly
developed areas.
Although there is an increasing recognition of urban
environmental issues, the holistic interpretation of
integration of social, economic and environmental
issues is not widely investigated. The concept of urban
sustainability in a southern context remains relatively
unspecified. In the course of this research it was
established that three elements matter the most in a
south context, these are: provision of basic needs,
equitable distribution of resources, and the importance
and priority of the economic dimension. The literature
originating from the North enriches the debate by trying
to unfold the imbedded meanings of sustainability and
focusing on the process of involvement of various actors
where interpretations firmly suggest the social is in
control, the ecological is an accepted constraint and the
economic is reduced to its instrumental role. There are
certainly many differences in issues triggering the
debate on sustainability between the North and South;
however, rapid urbanisation involves many familiar
themes and is the bridging theme where many

experiences can be passed on. Yet, there is a shortage


of frameworks in the literature at large to operationalise
the concept as well as evaluative tools to assist planners
in planning towards sustainability. Despite difficulties
shared across the divide, there remain constrictions
challenging operationalisation that are very specific to a
southern context. These include: societal conditions
allowing for participation and accountability, the
awareness of highly productive sustainable methods,
exercising knowledge sharing, and the availability of
data and trends.
The USMS has been developed with the desert
reclamation type of developments in mind, hence the
targets and acceptable levels reflect concerns of new
developments on desert reclaimed land. Similar
developments in other countries can benefit greatly
from the set of targets with measurable (quantitative
and qualitative) indicators aiming towards the sustainability of developments. Also, localities challenged by
lack of data and obstacles in knowledge sharing
commonly found in the South, can find the methodology used quite useful in exploring the future of
developments whilst constantly analysing implications
on the three capitals in a transparent and reflective
fashion using inferencing and deduction. In addition,
the system has a more generalised benefit in that it
provides an evaluative framework which coherently
assesses the contents of the scenario and compares it
with targets to flag pressure points and issues of
concern. As such, the USMS not only measures, it
contributes to sustainable development.
As challenging as it is, devising a Sustainable
Management System for cities and regions is an
imperative task due to the unprecedented pace of
urbanization taking place, and the subsequent pressures
urbanization exerts on existing fabrics and environments. Urban growth leads to conversion of land and
increasing pressure on local and global ecosystems. It
causes changes in water and energy fluxes. Natural
habitats are reduced and fragmented and nutrient cycles
are severely modified. Yet, the adverse consequences of
urban growth are not necessarily an inevitability.
Environmental, economic and social objectives should
be equitably defined at the outset of decisions to inform
the management of the new urban settlements in order
to achieve social justice, sustainable economies and
environmental sustainability.
The USMS can be a helpful tool to assist strategic
planners in the complex process of deciding on new
urban developments, which requires structuring of the
variety of problems that may occur in urban developments. This structuring process is inherently subjective

R.E.S. Abdel-Galil / Progress in Planning 78 (2012) 151206

and beset with many uncertainties especially that a


limited amount of information is available for new
developments and surveying preferences of prospective
inhabitants is problematic. The scenario building
process, an integral part of the USMS, is a creative
process that helps explore a range of possible events,
indicator selection reflects local concerns, target
selection identifies parameters of sustainability and
finally, the evaluation process helps identify key
tensions, conflicts and potentials of new developments.
The article presents a tool that operationalises the
concept of sustainability, overcomes data unavailability,
and accounts for various opinions within the societal
structure of a Southern context.
Acknowledgements
Special thanks go to Prof. Heather Campbell and Mr.
Peter Bibby of the Dept. of Town and Regional
Planning, Sheffield University, UK, for their continuous
support and insightful remarks.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data associated with this article can
be found, in the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/
10.1016/j.progress.2012.04.003.
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The author is a lecturer of Architecture and Planning in the Department of Architectural Engineering and
Environmental Design (AEED) at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Egypt. She acquired her PhD
from the Department of Town and Regional Planning (TRP), Sheffield University, UK. Before assuming her current
position at AEED, she worked as a University Teacher for two years at TRP, during which she was part of a winning
bidding team delivering international experience with urban intensification to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the
Environment, New Zealand. Her teaching career spans over 13 years. Her publications are concerned with
sustainability in developing countries, social concerns and urban form and design.

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