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Abstract
Urbanisation is occurring at an unprecedented scale worldwide, with developing countries claiming the biggest share.
Developing countries are increasingly facing enormous pressures to manage their urban and rural areas challenged by limited
resources, exploding numbers of population and rising expectations for a higher quality of life. Sustainability is central to the
management of existing and newly developed areas. It can offer a comprehensive discourse for understanding the functioning of
cities and their hinterlands, with an aim to achieve a balance between environmental, economic and social issues for current and
future generations. Managing the urbanization of newly developed areas requires innovative thinking and an ability to predict and
evaluate the impacts of possible futures. As the new map of Egypt is redrawn and much hope lies on the development of its deserts
constituting 95% of the total land area, an efficient process of directing and facilitating urban development is urgently required. This
paper presents an Urban Sustainable Management System (USMS) using the process of Integrated Assessment to assess three
possible development scenarios based on different economic bases for new developments on desert reclaimed land. Indicators of a
quantitative and qualitative nature are used to describe environmental, social and economic capitals of three scenarios as well as
setting targets towards the aim of sustainability. Pressure points hindering the sustainable development of reclaimed land are drawn
under the three different scenarios. The USMS provides an urban management system that overcomes difficulties of data
availability, combines interdisciplinary knowledge and deals with uncertainties of future developments; struggles decisionmakers
confront across the divide but more so in developing countries.
# 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Sustainable urban management; Indicators; Targets; Scenarios; Developing countries
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Desert reclaimed land a revived agenda . . . . . . .
Sustainability and the planning of urban expansion
3.1. Operationalisation of urban sustainability .
3.2. Existing models and systems . . . . . . . . . . .
An Urban Sustainable Management System . . . . .
4.1. Methodological approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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* Present address: 108 The Maples, Birds Avenue, Clonskeagh, Dublin 14, Ireland. Tel.: +353 867214650.
E-mail addresses: rania@aast.edu, rania.agalil@gmail.com.
0305-9006/$ see front matter # 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2012.04.003
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152
153
154
155
156
157
158
152
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
5.
6.
Methodological implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Indicator selection and organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Scenario building and analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.1. Scenario narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4.2. Scenario analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5. Setting targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6. Scenario assessment and evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6.1. Scenario I an agricultural based development
4.6.2. Scenario II an industrial based development .
4.6.3. Scenario III a tourism based development . .
Findings and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.1. Agricultural scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.2. Industrial scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.3. Tourism scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.4. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. Introduction
In the next 50 years the world population is projected
to reach over nine billion (DESA, 2009; WRI, 2006)
with virtually this entire growth taking place in
developing countries (El Araby, 2002; Population
Reference Bureau, 2007), with as many people living
in urban areas as outside them and the projection of 60%
of Africas population living in cities by 2050
(UNHABITAT, 2010). Cohen (2005) warns that if
current trends are assumed poor countries will have to
build the equivalent of a city of more than one million
people each week for the next 45 years. The World
Development Report (2003) estimates that the demands
for energy, water, housing and education will be
enormous. We can thus look ahead to an unprecedented
age of urbanisation and city-building. A century during
which the vast majority of the worlds population will
have to live in cities cries out for images of the good city
(Freidmann, 2000), especially when continued spatial
expansion and growth of cities result in social
segregation, increasing unemployment, environmental
deterioration and declining quality of life (Rotmans, van
Asselt, & Vellinga, 2000; Yigitcanlar, 2008), trends
cited in most cities around the world but are more
intense in developing countries. As a solution to the
overcrowding and congestion of old cities and towns
and subsequent trends, the policy of constructing new
cities and towns has been rediscovered in developing
countries, decades after losing its popularity in the
North (Stewart, 1996). A striking example is that of
Egypt which is expanding into its vast desert land. This
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159
160
162
163
169
185
187
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190
194
194
196
201
201
203
203
policy has been adopted since the 70s yet a few of the
new cities have sustained due to bad management and
unbalanced development which neglect social and
environmental aspects. As the policy of new developments on desert reclaimed lands is revived on a much
larger scale, it presents an opportunity to planners and
decision-makers to plan on a clean slate avoiding
problems of existing areas (Golany, 1976) and adopting
principles of sustainability, however, problems of
operationalising the concept remain.
Urban systems and structures have been dramatically
affected by rapid urbanisation in the last few decades
(Yeung, 2000), increasingly challenging planning
bodies worldwide to control urban growth in a
comprehensive and sustainable manner in an aim to
decrease adverse implications. This has been attempted
by the use of urban frameworks and models where
important progress has been made. The result is two
bodies of literature; that focusing on planning questions
of land use, transport and housing and another, in which
attempts are made to integrate the environmental
dimension. Very few attempts have been made building
on the concept of sustainability which emphasises the
importance of the three pillars; the environment, the
social aspects and the economic, despite a wide
suggestion at the international level that urban
sustainability is the best approach to guide present
and future growth of urban areas (Drakakis-Smith,
1995; Myllyla & Kuvaja, 2005; Rees & Wackernagel,
1996; Rodriguez, 2007; Satterthwaite, 1997; Spangenberg, Pfahl, & Deller, 2002). The methods deployed in
frameworks and models have been largely analytical or
153
towns were built, by 1999, there were 17, and plans are
set to reach 27 satellite cities. As for mega national
projects, their aim as articulated by the state is: [they]
are to cope with the present and future aspirations and
achieve balanced development in different provinces as
well as optimal exploitation of resources and energies
(SIS, 2001). Current political uprisings and the 2011
Revolution which has toppled the Mubarak regime has
sparked fervent discussions about the development of
the country and experts (such as Director of the Centre
for Remote Sensing at Boston University, Prof. Farouk
ElBaz, renowned engineer Dr Mamdouh Hamza of
Hamza Associates and former Prime Minister Kamal El
Ganzouri of the mid-90s, reappointed in December
2011) re-opened the Western Desert development files,
proposing the cultivation of hundreds of thousands of
feddans in the desert and re-charting the map of
Egyptian urban development.
The objective of the desert reclamation as conceived
by previous governments and experts was to open new
venues of development in the sectors of agriculture,
industry, tourism and mining, in unpopulated areas with
exploitable natural resources, namely the region of the
Western desert, Southern Egypt and that of the Canal
and Sinai.
Egypt is not alone in embarking on mega national
projects to relieve urbanization problems. In many
developing economies, mega national projects have
been regarded as the answer to reduce poverty, rearrange population clusters and introduce new development and economic opportunities, much needed in
the regions encountering economic and social troubles.
Much of these projects involve diverting water to serve
regions suffering from drought, or severe water shortage. Pearce (2003, 2004) outlines projects spanning
around five continents: Asia, North America, Africa,
Australia and South Europe. Diversion of surplus water
from the Yangtze in China, linking 14 rivers in India,
diversion of rivers in Australia, canals to drive water to
areas suffering scarcity of water in Russia and Spain,
talks to buy contents of the Arctic rivers from Canada by
the US, and transferring water from the Oubangui River
the river Chari in Africa, are all striking examples.
The decision to divert large amounts of water to arid
areas is a common theme in these projects. The
Egyptian project differs in that it is diverting water to
uninhabited areas of the western desert, where it is
envisaged people would be encouraged to go, given
appropriate job opportunities are provided. In this
paper, it is argued that more elements affect peoples
choice to migrate to new developments, notwithstanding the importance of the economic dimension,
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
Fig. 4. Map of the South Valley project showing different development scales.
Source: Adapted from The GOPP, The Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Communities (1999).
165
166
167
168
5. URBAN AND RURAL PROFILE: Local Bedouin communities established small camps, using local materials,
typically consisting of small huts, an open air
restaurant and a bathing area to service tourists. The
new urban villages built north of the resorts, are
mainly occupied by housing of different sizes and a
less percentage of the land was used for agricultural
plots, warehouses, bus garages, craft workshops,
commercial shaded street markets selling souvenirs,
schools, local entertainment facilities and laboratories for research. The urban villages were small in
size and few in number, but were popular because of
their scale and traditional compact architecture.
Pensions or catered lodgings were popular with
researchers.
6. TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION: New loop roads
were extended to pass across the new developments
and attractions. Internal roads were levelled. Local
airports in El Kharga, East Owainat and Abu Simbel
were upgraded to serve as international airports thus
facilitating the influx of tourists to the South Valley.
The Government also promoted internal tourism,
which required the upgrading of the intra-regional
transportation network. This involved river transport,
railway services and roads. Public buses were also
made available to residents, though not frequent
enough. Gaps were filled by private mini buses. The
efficiency of communication networks increased
(particularly cellular phones) and many services in
the area could be achieved online.
The scenarios have been constructed where each
depends on a dominant economic base, to identify
and shed light on critical issues within each base. The
scenarios have been structured by a balanced set of
components which have been woven to capture the
socialcultural, economic and ecological patterns
within a regional development, drawing together all
aspects of concern within a new development and the
interrelations between them in a plausible narrative.
The analysis and subsequent target setting and
assessment employ a number of methods to gather and
analyse data. Data gathering used primary sources of
interviews and field observation, and secondary sources
through documents including Egyptian governmental
documents such as the EHDR, DHS; a study of
development trajectories in the South Valley and the
structural plan of New Toshka city; academic literature;
newspaper articles; studies by the World Bank, FAO,
UNEP, WHO, Defra, IEA and UN reports for the
ESCWA region; studies from independent organisations
such as RSSTI (The Red Sea Sustainable Tourism
169
170
Table 1
Figures from selected governorates.
Facts/governorates
1
2
3a
3b
4
5
6
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
a
b
c
Aswan
Fayoum
North Sinai
6,069 km
2,721,478 persons
1,630/km2
27,564 km
357,900 persons
187/km2
376,505 km
193,000 persons
127/km2
130,000 km2
296,800 persons
140/km2
19.3/km2
29.4%
Agr. 30.3
12.8/km2
27.7%
Agr. 23.9
0.4/km2
42.1%
Agr. 33.4
2.5/km2
30.6%
Agr. 7.9
Unemployed
graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic
dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university
students of
populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/bed a
Ratio of inhabitant/
physiciana
Infant Mortality rate
(per 1000 live births)b
No. of cultural centres a
No. of Industrial
establishments a
5.66%
424.1/km2
34.6%
Agr. 48.1 Indu.
21.1
2.36%
Total
12.9
58.1
Female
34.5
Serv.
43
15-29a
31.2
Total
2.9
69.5
Female
8
Red Sea
34,608 km
1,258,882 persons
1,339/km 2
Indu.
26.7
New Valley
Area
Populationc
Population density
(research est.)
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in
Cultivated land
(1000 feddans) b
Km of paved roads a
Inhabitant/km a
Telephone lines/1000
householdsb
Passenger cars/1000
people a
Serv.
30.8
Indu.
16.4
Serv.
59.7
2.18%
15-29a
17.0
Total
3.8
60.4
Indu.
7.4
Serv.
59.2
4.28%
Female
13.3
15-29a
13.6
Total
13.3
54.2
Indu.
39.8
Serv.
52.3
Female
16.1
15-29a
9.4
2.38%
Female
28.5
15-29a
23.8
Total
2
46.5
28.9%
22.71%
24.7%
29.91%
24.6%
49
50
11
2.8
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/
physician
20.6
0.7
992 inhabitant/bed
1,265 inhabitant/
physician
17.3
3.4
615 inhabitant/bed
1,094 inhabitant/
physician
21.3
5.7
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/
physician
12.6
4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/
physician
13.2
10
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)
174.2
5
106 (43 food)
(12 eng., 6 xylose,
15 cons. 15 paper,
5 chem., 9 textiles)
399.1
10
41 (10 food)
(12 eng., 9 xylose,
5 cons. 3 paper,
1 chem.)
154.7
14
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)
159.3
5
46 (13 food)
(8 eng.,
9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)
0.7
912
1068
129
790
2520
73
3585
71
220
2322
61
271
2044
76
353
19.5
13.8
20.2
17.2
43.5
171
Table 2
National estimate of population structure.
Age groups
Age groups
2000 DHS
2000 UN
2020 BUCEN
2025 Courbage
04
514
1524
2560
60+
12.6%
25.4%
18.6%
32.7%
10.7%
04
514
1524
2564
65+
12.4%
24.9%
21.1%
38.05%
3.7%
35.4%
8.72%
17.41%
17.42%
50.46%/(to 60 = 47.2%)
5.98% (60+ = 9.3%)
23.1%
60.5%
4.1%
68.4%
8.6%
Source: Compiled from El-Zanaty and Way (2001), NICI (2002), BUCEN (2000), UN in Zohry (2002c) and Courbage (2002).
Table 3
Percentage of employment in the agri-food complex of the Netherlands in 1997.
Employment in
Supply industry
Primary agriculture
Processing industries
Distribution
Percentage
20.12%
36.64%
24.77%
18.47%
Source: Facts and figures 2000 (although agriculture employment has dropped from 220 Annual Work Units in 2000 to 179.7 in 2010 (Eurostat,
2011) there is no recent data that would suggest major changes in breakdown of sectors).
172
Table 4
Total fertility rates.
Total fertility rate
Urban/rural
Female wage worker/non-wage worker
Nationwide 3.0
2001
urban
2008
urban
2001
rural
2008
rural
2001
urban
2008
urban
2001
rural
2008
rural
3.1
2.6
2.7
3.9
3.7
3.2
3.4
NA
3.0
4.7
3.6
NA
NA
NA
Table 5
Percentage of households in possession of property and animals.
Agricultural land
Farm animals; livestock/poultry
Nationwide 13.9
Nationwide 21.6
(a) Labour
force 58%
(b) Labour
force 40%
156,600
80,040
41,760
69,600
108,000
55,200
28,800
48,000
3. Economy
Labour force and unemployment percentage: In the
following table, two scenarios of labour force of 58%
and 40% are considered.
173
Table 7
Labour force participation rates.
Labour force participation rates (%) 1564
Males
Females
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
1988
1998
1988
1998
1988
1998
74.4
28.5
51.45
70.8
33.0
51.9
78.8
53.5
66.15
73.6
56.6
65.1
76.7
41.8
59.25
72.3
46.0
59.15
Bold values indicates the high values or those most relevant to the area and are refered to in the text.
174
Table 8
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.
Egypt (source for left col.
Populstat, 2004 site, right
col. CIA 2011) 2010 est.
Agriculture
Industry
Services
18%
30%
52%
2.6%
24.9%
72.5%
2.4%
32.6%
65%
12.4%
44.7%
42.9%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
34%
12%
54%
2%
18%
80%
31.2% public services
13.1% finance and business
12.8% commerce
7.5% construction
6.2% transport, storage and communication
6.4% personal and other services
42.4%
19.7%
37.9%
14%
37.5%
48.3%
32%
17%
51%
Egypt
The Netherlands
Israel
Thailand
0.95 acres/worker
feddans/worker
0.91 Arable land 2.92% (2005)
total land 995,450 km2
8.24 acres/worker
7.93 feddans/worker
Arable land 21.96% (2005)
total land 33,893 km2
12.36 acres/worker
11.9 feddans/worker
Arable land 15.45% (2005)
total land 20,330 km2
2.1 acres/worker
1.98 feddans/worker
Arable land 27.54% (2005)
total land 510,890 km2
Source: nationmaster.com (2004) from the World Resources Institute, Washington DC.
175
Table 9
Water and sanitation facilities in selected governorates.
Aswan
Facts/governorates
Fayoum
Red Sea
Upper Egypt
Frontier Gov.
96.4
88.4
97.9
81.4
91.12
98.5
99.6
84.9
75.8
NA
NA
90.0
96.8
85.7
81.1
91.6
97.3
79.7
Bold values indicates the high values or those most relevant to the area and are refered to in the text.
a
Egypt Information Highway (1997).
b
EHDR (2005).
Table 10
Characteristics of households.
Household profile
Nationwide
Upper Egypt
Frontier governorates
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
4.1
3.4
1.3
5.1
3.7
1.5
4.6
3.6
1.4
4.4
3.5
1.4
5.8
3.6
1.8
5.3
3.5
1.6
5.1
3.8
1.4
Source: Adapted from The GOPP, The Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Urban Communities (1999).
140,000
588.1
86,000
146 persons/km2
10,000 + 3 2000 + 50 1000
140,000
588.1
189,000
153 persons/km 2
10,000 + 3 2000 + 71 1000
102,000
428.5
67,000
133 persons/km 2
10,000 + 2 2000 + 53 1000
120,000
504
78,000
155 persons/km 2
10,000 + 3 2000 + 62 1000
Area in feddans
Area in km2
Population
Population density
Composition of settlements
Zone 4 (West)
Zone 3 (Northwest)
Zone 2 (North)
Zone 1 (North East)
Zones of development
Table 11
Zones of development of the South Valley project.
502,000
2108.7
420,000
av. 146.75 per/km 2
Total
176
Table 12
Scenario I analysis summary.
Scenario I
Lifestyle
Economy
Environment
Transportation and
communication
Upper class 1%
Agro-Indus. and
warehousing 23% (55,200p)
Upper middle
class 14%
Cultivated area
502,000 feddans
Unemployed: 15%
Unemployed
graduates: 3%
Economy sectors:
Economy 50%
Agriculture 30%
Fertility (3 children)
Agro-industries 25%
Hydro (16%)
Commercial services
and warehousing 25%
Transport 20%
Solar (25%)
Commercial facilities
Wind (1%)
Cultural centres 20
Biogas (3%)
Schools
Primary (46,650 child)
Prep. and sec. (67,100p)
Institutes 2 (6000p)
(Agriculture, agro-industry)
Health care facilities 30
475 inhabitant/bed
1370 inhabitant/physician
Age groups
04 (8.75%) 52,200
514 (17.4%) 104,400
Bicycle 27%
Private car 4%
Motorcycle 2%
Mini bus 45%
Bus 7%
Foot 10%
Modes for freight
Trucks 60%
Train 30%
Aeroplane 10%
Population (600,000)
177
178
Table 13
Figures from selected governorates.
Facts/governorates
a
Area
Population c
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in
6
7
Unemployed graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university students
of populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/beda
Ratio of inhabitant/
physician a
Mortality rate b
No. of cultural centres a
Cultivated landb
No. of Industrial
establishments a
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
a
b
c
Damietta
2
Kalyoubia
2
New Valley
Red Sea
2
130,000 km2
155,695 persons
2,193 population/km2
33.48%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
8
23.8
68.3
2.38%
Total
Female
15-29
4.4
8.2
9.4
58.5
34,608 km
973,671 persons
1,036 population/km 2
21.87%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
28.1
23.6
48.2
5.66%
Total
Female
15-29
14.9
30.4
31.2
73.0
1,029 km
914,614 persons
1,552 population/km 2
30%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
24.6
35.3
40.1
2.18%
Total
Female
15-29
6.5
18.4
14.2
62.4
1,001 km
3,302,860 persons
3,494 population/km 2
28.4%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
18.7
33.8
47.5
2.41%
Total
Female
15-29
7.5
16
16.3
67.6
376,505 km
141,737 persons
127population/km 2
28.58%
Agr.
Indu.
22.5
15.6
4.28%
Total
Female
10.9
22.6
68.4
28.9%
29%
25.7%
29.91%
24.6%
49
41
177
11
1.9
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/
physician
25
10
146,886 Feddans
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)
1.5
475 inhabitant/bed
1846 inhabitant/
physician
17.7
12
193,998 Feddans
1577 (168 food)
(337 eng., 60 xylose,
79 cons. 41 paper,
339 chem. 475 tex.
73metallic)
126 litre/day
183 litre/day
94.6
5.1
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/
physician
19
14
69,717 Feddans
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)
4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/
physician
21
5
80 Feddans
46 (13 food)
(8 eng., 9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)
181 litre/day
45 litre/day
94.2
2.5
313 inhabitant/bed
685 inhabitant/
physician
17.7
6
112,208 Feddans
842 (126 food)
(47 eng., 554 xylose,
63 cons. 10 paper,
8 chem.,
33 textiles)
229 litre/day
77 litre/day
99.3
541 litre/day
109 litre/day
97.8
134 litre/day
None litre/day
83.7
88.4
99.4
98.7
98.5
99.6
66
121.3
74.6
139
181.1
19.5
25.4
15.8
17.2
43.5
Serv.
61.9
15-29
23.8
1
2
3
4
5
Aswan
179
Table 14
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.
Share of sector in
GDP in
Agriculture
Industry
Services
18%
30%
52%
12%
40%
48%
9.2%
26.9%
63.9%
10.6%
34.6%
54.8%
Labour force
by occupation
Agriculture
Industry
Services
34%
12%
54%
13%
36%
51%
25.5%
26.2%
48.4%
18.3%
31.9%
49.8%
14%
37.5%
48.3%
32%
17%
51%
180
181
within the area. Buses are used mainly for longer trips to
transport labour to resource sites. The trips take place
every fortnight or so to replace the team and so on.
Trains are used to transport passengers to nearby cities
and to some nearby plants. Thus these figures for modes
of transport are assumed for the area: bicycle 10%, foot
1%, private car 4%, motorcycle 2%, mini bus 53%, bus
20%, train 10%. Freight transport is mainly conducted
by trucks from quarries to factories, warehouses and
from raw material sites to manufacturing zones, to
adjacent local markets and to ports. Trains are
convenient for transporting goods to ports.
See Table 15 for a summary of figures drawn from
the analysis of scenario II.
2. Life style
1. Population
Estimate of population: The ratio of jobs to tourists
defines the number of the population working in tourism
In 2003 in Malta there were 175,862 tourist arrivals,
which generated 41,000 jobs, as such the ratio is 1:4. In
an interview with an independent environmental
consultant he suggested that in Egypt the ratio is 1:1
or even 2:1. A ratio of 1:2 is considered for the area.
Reviewing the tourist nights of Luxor and Aswan, it is
estimated that the area could receive 100,000 tourist
arrivals. That suggests the employment of 25,000
50,000 people, supporting a population of between
250,00 and 500,000. The Head of Tourism Development Authority of Upper Egypt suggests that the area
offers 30,000 jobs in tourism. This figure suggests a
population of 300,000.
Population structure: The first age group will be
similar to the expected national figures, however, the
age group of 2560 is higher due to the incoming
population who try to find job opportunities in the area,
and because not all settle in the area, the age group of
60+ is slightly lower than national estimations.
Distribution of working population in different
sectors: Consulting figures from countries that have
tourism dominant economies (see Table 17) and that of
governorates (Table 16) suggest a labour distribution for
the tourism scenario as follows: 13% agriculture, 7%
industry and 80% services (25% tourism, 10% transport
182
Table 15
Scenario II analysis summary.
Scenario II
Lifestyle
Economy
Environment
Transportation and
communication
Upper class 1%
Upper middle
class 10%
Middle class 20%
Schools
Primary (33,000 child)
Prep. and sec. (48,650p)
Institutes (4300p)
Telephone lines
116/1000 household
Unemployed: 10%
Unemployed
graduates 3%
Economy sectors:
Economy 69%
Industries 55%
Services and
Transport 30%
Agriculture 5%
Solar (7%)
Age groups
Commerce 10%
Wind (0%)
04 (8%) 40,000
514 (15.4%) 77,000
Solid wastes
Liquid wastes
Aeroplane 0%
Population (500,000)
Table 16
Figures from selected governorates.
Aswan
Luxor
South Sinai
New Valley
Red Sea
Area a
Population c
Population densityb
Labour force b
% labour forceb in
6
7
Unemployed graduatesa
Unemployment rateb
(as % of lab.force 15+)
Demographic dependency
ratiob (%)
% Pre-university students
of populationa
No. of health care
facilitiesa (idsc)
Health units/100,000 b
Ratio of inhabitant/beda
Ratio of inhab./physiciana
Mortality rate b
No. of cultural centresb
Cultivated landb
No. of Industrial
establishments a
34,608 km2
973,671 persons
1,036 population/km 2
21.87%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
28.1
23.6
48.2
5.66%
Total
Female
15-29
14.9
30.4
31.2
73.0
416 km2
360,503 persons
1,727 population/km 2
23.2%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
24.1
21.3
54.6
3.37%
Total
Female
15-29
11.7
29.3
28
72.2
28,438 km2
54,495 persons
5 population/km 2
40.2%
Agr.
Indu.
10.9
19.3
0.45%
Total
Female
2
7.9
58.9
376,505 km2
141,737 persons
127population/km 2
28.58%
Agr.
Indu.
22.5
15.6
4.28%
Total
Female
10.9
22.6
68.4
130,000 km2
155,695 persons
2,193 population/km 2
33.48%
Agr.
Indu.
Serv.
8
23.8
68.3
2.38%
Total
Female
15-29
4.4
8.2
9.4
58.5
28.9%
30.3%
18.5%
29.91%
24.6%
49
11
1.9
508 inhabitant/bed
2,037 inhabitant/physician
25
10
146,886 Feddans
135 (47 food)
(28 eng., 21 xylose,
16 cons. 9 paper,
4 chem.)
181 litre/day
45 litre/day
94.2
2.3
982 inhabitant/bed
1306 inhabitant/physician
44.1
2
41,510 Feddans
7 (4 food)
(1 chem., 2 textiles)
9.9
164 inhabitant/bed
524 inhabitant/physician
32.5
8
5,439 Feddans
33 (1 food)
(1 chem. 31 others)
5.1
292 inhabitant/bed
1,593 inhabitant/physician
19
14
69,717 Feddans
3 (2 food)
(1 engineering)
4.0
478 inhabitant/bed
759 inhabitant/physician
21
5
80 Feddans
46 (13 food)
(8 eng., 9 xylose,
8 cons., 1 chem.)
161 litre/day
36 litre/day
88.3
380 litre/day
200 litre/day
87.8
541 litre/day
109 litre/day
97.8
134 litre/day
None litre/day
83.7
88.4
88.1
89.5
98.5
99.6
912
1068
4.86
250
1442
5.22
1962
28
26.06
2322
61
11.18
2044
76
13.57
66
149
255.2
139
181.1
19.5
14.5
67.1
17.2
43.5
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
a
b
c
Potable water/capita a
Sewer capacity/capitaa
Households (%) with
access to piped waterb
Households (%) with
access to sanitation b
Km of paved roadsa
Inhabitant/kma
Telephone lines/100
inhabitanta
Telephone lines/1000
households b
Passenger cars/1000 peoplea
15-29
4.7
Serv.
61.9
15-29
23.8
183
Serv.
69.8
Facts/governorates
1
2
3
4
5
6%
16%
78%
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopaedia/Hawaii/Economy.
a
34%
12%
54%
32%
17%
51%
1.5%
24.7%
73.9%
1.2%
7.5%
91.2%
4. Environment
Agriculture
Industry
Services
0.6%
1.9%
97.5% (tourisma 24.3%)
14%
37.5%
48.3%
18%
30%
52%
Agriculture
Industry
Services
1.9%
17.2%
80.9%
Table 17
Comparison of the share of different economic sectors in the GDP of selected countries, and the labour force by occupation.
3.4%
13.4%
83.2%
184
185
186
Table 18
scenario III analysis summary.
Lifestyle
Economy
Environment
Transportation and
communication
Upper class 3%
In industry 7% (8400p)
In Agri.: 13% (15,600p)
Upper middle
class 24%
Unemployed: 8.5%
Unemployed graduates: 3%
Economy sectors:
Tourism 30%
Energy use:
Fossil fuel (20%)
Natural gas (50%)
Industry 15%
Hydro (16%)
Schools
Primary (25,600 child)
Prep. and sec. (39,800p)
Institutes 2 (2250p)
Health care 35 facilities
485 inhabitant/bed
1240 inhabitant/physician
Cultural centres 10
Solar (14%)
Age groups
Transport 12%
Wind (0%)
04 (8.7%) 26,100
514 (16.4%) 49,200
1524 (16.4%) 49,200
2560 (50.5%) 151,000
60+ (8%) 24,000
Agriculture 3%
Biogas (0%)
Water pollution
Scenario III
Population (300,000)
187
188
Table 19
Targets for the social capital.
Social capital
Indicator target
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Towards
sustainability
Shelter
(Housing)
Living conditions
Household services
1.25 (5/4)
78%
Safety
Income security
Health
Social co-operation
and hierarchy
Crime
Sanitation
1
80%
Drinking water
Healthcare delivery
2
3
2
3
2
Nutritional status
Mortality
Equity
Poverty
3
2
Education
Gender equality
Education level
Population
Literacy
Population change
3
4
3
3
Cultural identity
2
T
70 litre/day
90%
275 litre/day
(100 m3/year)
90%
400
400
98%
67%
1.8%
10/1000 births
70
8%
7%
1:1
90%
75%
80%
1.8%
99% in formal
settlements
(8) High
(6) Above average
189
Table 20
Targets for the ecological capital.
Ecological capital
Indicator target
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Towards sustainability
Atmosphere
Air quality
Climate change
Water
Water quantity
Water quality
Land
Agriculture
Urbanization
Biodiversity
Noise
Fishery
Noise level
Green structures
Ecosystem
Species
where appropriate, scores to reflect qualitative measures. Assigning figures, both for the scenarios and
sustainability targets has been an exhaustive process.
Reasoning and judgement based on knowledge and
experience have guided this process, where decisions
about the various levels and justification of the results
were conducted in a transparent manner such that the
lists of indicators representing the three capitals
produce a coherent account of each scenario. Evaluation
involved the comparison of indicator measurement
to the set target to reveal the pressure points in
capitals of each scenario and allow for a comparison
across the scenarios where the indicators serve as a
common base.
The evaluation deployed a visual medium to enable
users to identify the indicators that can cause concern
for any scenario. Indicators which fall under the red
190
Table 21
Targets for the economic capital.
Economic capital
Indicator measure
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Towards sustainability
Infrastructure
Services
Energy
Roads
Renewable energy
275 litre/day
70 litre/day
1000 kWH/year
187
500
35%
Energy efficiency
2
2
Consumption and
production patterns
Material consumption
Waste generation and
management
Transportation
2
3
Labour market
Structure
2
3
Economic structure
Unemployment
Diversity
% of unemployment
Revenues of different economic sectors as a % of total
revenues of the local economy
Tourism sector
15 GJ/HH
500 MJ/m2
15 GJ/tonne
1.2 MJ/pass km
2.7 MJ/t km
0.75 toe/capita
(31 GJ/capita)
300
99%
35%
20%
4.5%
35%
0.5%
5%
40%
6240 km/year
4%
55%
10%
5%
20%
6%
10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10% com/business.
50% services
1500 beds/100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)
191
Table 22
Assessment of the ecological capital of the agricultural scenario.
Social Capital
Needs
priority
1
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
Shelter
(Housing)
Living condions
1.4
1.25 (5/4)
64%
78%
1.5
60%
80%
45 litre/day
70 litre/day
90%
90%
70%
90%
475
1,370
88%
400
400
98%
58%
5.5%
67%
1.8%
14.7/1000 births
66
15%
10/1000
70
8%
15%
7%
2: 1
1: 1
80%
90%
69%
75%
70%
2.6%
92% in formal
selements
(5) average
80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high
(2) Low
Household services
Safety
Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime
Health
Sanitaon
Drinking water
Healthcare delivery
3
2
3
2
Nutrional status
Mortality
Equity
3
2
Indicator measure
Poverty
Gender equality
Educaon
Educaon level
3
4
3
Populaon
Literacy
Populaon change
Cultural identy
192
Table 23
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the agricultural scenario.
Ecological Capital
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Atmosphere
Air quality
Climate change
Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty
Water
Indicator measure
Indicator
Land
Agriculture
Urbanizaon
Biodiversity
Noise
Urban
space
Ecosystem
Species
Fishery
Noise level
green
Green structures
Target
5 ( g/m ) annual
mean
15 ( g/m ) annual
mean
1 t/ km
4 t/ km
mean
mean
50 ( g/m ) annual
mean
3
2 / km
1 t/ capita
4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita
140( g/m3) in
120 ( g/m3) in
6.5 mg/L
9mg/L
0.6 mg/L
0.1 mg/L
10 mg/L
7 mg/L
15 mg/L
30 ppm
502
5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100
100 kg/feddan
80 kg/feddan
1 kg/ feddan
0.5 kg/feddan
8%
1%
---------
-----------
Water
consumpon
(litre/day)
Water quality
Scenario level
/person
150 m /year
(410 litre/day)
------
------
60%
2
30 m
40%
2
30 40 m
193
Table 24
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the agricultural scenario.
Economic Capital
Indicator measure
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
Infrastructure
Services
220 litre/day
275
45
70
450 KWH/year
1000 KWH/year
209
187
600
37%
500
35%
20 GJ
450 MJ
5 GJ/ton
15 GJ/household
500 MJ
15GJ/ton
Structure
Unemployment
% of unemployment
Diversity
Energy
Roads
Renewable energy
Energy eciency
Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management
Consumpon
and producon
paerns
Transportaon
2
4
Labour market
Economic
structure
1.2 MJ/pass.km,
2.7 MJ/tkm
0.6 toe/capita
-----
------
250
300
50%
99%
40%
8%
10%
17%
10%
15%
38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%
36%
5616
40%
6240
4%
52%
5%
2%
27%
10%
0%
4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%
45% agr.
23% agro-indu. 12%
comm.
20% trans.&serv.
15%
10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
30% agr.
25% agro-indu.
25%comm.&ware.
10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business.
194
Table 24 (Continued )
Tourism sector
Accommodaon
Historical assets
20% trans.&serv.
450 b/ 7,500 tn
2
50% services
1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)
195
Table 25
Assessment of the social capital of the industrial scenario.
Social Capital
Needs
priority
1
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
Shelter
(Housing)
Living condions
1.2
1.25 (5/4)
63%
78%
F (weak)
60%
80%
60 litre/day
70 litre/day
85%
90%
80%
90%
410
1,385
90%
400
400
98%
62%
6%
67%
1.8%
22.5/1000 births
67.5
10/1000
70
8% of households
8%
10%
1:4
7%
1: 1
86%
90%
69%
75%
75%
2.0%
80% in formal
selements
(3) Low
80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high
(7) high
Household services
Safety
Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime
Health
Sanitaon
Drinking water
Healthcare delivery
3
2
3
2
Nutrional status
Mortality
Equity
3
2
Poverty
Gender equality
Educaon
Educaon level
Populaon
Literacy
Populaon change
Cultural identy
3
4
3
Indicator measure
Component
3
4
196
Table 26
Evaluation and assessment of the ecological capital of the industrial scenario.
Ecological Capital
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Atmosphere
Air quality
Climate change
Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty
Water
Water quality
Land
Agriculture
3
3
Urbanizaon
Biodiversity
Ecosystem
Species
Fishery
Noise
Urban
space
Noise level
green
Green structures
Indicator measure
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
70 g/m3
50 ( g/m ) annual
mean
90 g/m3
5 / km
4.5 ton/capita
4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita
150 g/m3
120 ( g/m ) in
average me of 8 hrs
Rao 0.04
3.86%
Rao of 0.61
524 litre/day
(191.25 m3/year)
6.5 mg/L
9mg/L
4.5 t/ km
4 t/ km
70 g/m3
0.6 mg/L
0.1 mg/L
7 mg/L
7 mg/L
20 mg/L
20 ppm
5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100
150 kg/feddan
80 kg/feddan
1.5 kg/feddan
0.5 kg/feddan
20%
1%
10%
2
10 m
40%
2
30 40 m
--------
-------------
197
Table 27
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the industrial scenario.
Economic Capital
Indicator measure
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Sustainability level
Infrastructure
Services
250 litre/day
275
60
70
2000 KWH/year
1000 KWH/year
116.5
187
200
23%
500
35%
17 GJ/HH
2
400 MJ/ m
15 GJ/household
2
500 MJ/ m
40 GJ/t
15GJ/ton
2.7 MJ/tkm
1.2 MJ/pass.km,
0.75 toe/capita (31.4
GJ/capita)
-----
Energy
Roads
Renewable energy
Energy eciency
Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management
Consumpon
and producon
paerns
Transportaon
Labour market
2
4
Economic
structure
Tourism sector
Structure
Unemployment
Diversity
% of unemployment
Revenues of dierent economic
sectors as a % of total revenues of
the local economy
Accommodaon
Historical assets
2.5 toe/capita
(104.7 GJ/capita)
400
300
20%
99%
50%
20%
12%
15%
3%
0%
38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%
17%
36400
40%
6240
4%
73%
10%
2%
10%
1%
0%
4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%
12% agr.
48% indu.& man.
15%comm.
17 % trans
8% services
10%
5% agr.
55% indu.
10%comm.
30% trans.&serv.
10% agriculture
20% industry
15%com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business
50% services
250 b, 5,000 tn
0
1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)
198
Table 28
Evaluation and assessment of the social capital of the tourism scenario.
Social Capital
Needs
priority
1
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
Shelter
(Housing)
Living condions
1.1
1.25 (5/4)
69%
78%
80%
80%
70 litre/day
70 litre/day
85%
90%
90%
90%
485
1240
90%
400
400
98%
60%
5%
67%
1.8%
16.4/1000
67
10%
10/1000
70
8%
8.5%
1:1.5
7%
1: 1
93%
90%
55%
75%
80%
2%
95% in formal
selements
(2) low
80%
1.8%
99% in formal
selements
(8) high
(7) high
Household services
Safety
Income security
Social co-operaon
and hierarchy
Crime
Health
Sanitaon
Drinking water
Healthcare delivery
3
2
3
Nutrional status
Mortality
Equity
3
2
Poverty
Gender equality
Educaon
Educaon level
Populaon
Literacy
Populaon change
Cultural identy
3
4
3
Indicator measure
Component
3
4
199
Table 29
Evaluation and assessment of the ecological capital of the tourism scenario.
Ecological Capital
Needs
priority
1
Component
Atmosphere
Sub-component
Air quality
Climate change
Ozone
layer
depleon
Water quanty
Water
Water quality
Land
Agriculture
3
3
Urbanizaon
Biodiversity
Ecosystem
Species
Fishery
Noise
Urban
space
Noise level
green
Green structures
Indicator measure
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
70 g/m3
50 ( g/m ) annual
mean
60 g/m3
6/ km
2 ton/capita
4.5 / km
0.5 metric tons of
carbon /capita
120 g/m3
120 ( g/m ) in
average me of 8 hrs
Rao of 0.03
Percent of 2.88%
Rao of 0.61
8 mg/L
9mg/L
3.5 t/ km
4 t/ km
50 g/m3
0.2 mg/L
0.1 mg/L
5 mg/L
7 mg/L
10 mg/L
6 ppm
5 mg/L
9 ppm (parts per
million)
100
150 kg/feddan
80 kg/feddan
1.5 kg/feddan
0.5 kg/feddan
5%
1%
--------
---------
-------------
---------
-------
(7:00 to 23:00) 5%
(23:00 to 7:00) 30%
20%
2
20 m
40%
2
30 40 m
200
Table 30
Evaluation and assessment of the economic capital of the tourism scenario.
Economic Capital
Indicator measure
Needs
priority
Component
Sub-component
Indicator
Scenario level
Target
Infrastructure
Services
280
275
70
70
1500 KWH/year
1000 KWH/year
158
187
120
30%
500
35%
20GJ/HH
2
1200 MJ/m
15 GJ/household
2
500 MJ/m
0.5 GJ/ton
1.7 toe/capita
(62 GJ/capita)
15GJ/ton
1.2 MJ/pass.km,
2.7 MJ/tkm
0.75 toe/capita
(31.4 GJ/capita)
-----
------
600
300
50%
99%
50%
5%
20%
10%
15%
0%
38%
20%
1%
35%
1%
5%
10%
16560
40%
6240
10%
45%
7%
2%
10%
5%
21%
4%
55%
10%
3%
20%
6%
2%
13% agriculture
7% industry
15% com
10% transport
55% services
8.5%
3% agriculture
15% industry
20%com/business.
10% agriculture
20% industry
15% com/business
10% transport
45% services
7%
10% agriculture
30% industry
10%com/business.
Energy
Roads
Renewable energy
Energy eciency
Material
consumpon
Waste generaon
and management
Consumpon
and producon
paerns
Transportaon
Labour market
2
4
Economic
structure
Structure
Unemployment
Diversity
% of unemployment
Revenues of dierent economic
sectors as a % of total revenues of
the local economy
201
Table 30 (Continued )
Tourism sector
Accommodaon
Historical assets
60% services
2000b/100,000 tn
9
50% services
1500b/ 100,000 tn
9 (recorded sites)
202
203
204
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The author is a lecturer of Architecture and Planning in the Department of Architectural Engineering and
Environmental Design (AEED) at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Egypt. She acquired her PhD
from the Department of Town and Regional Planning (TRP), Sheffield University, UK. Before assuming her current
position at AEED, she worked as a University Teacher for two years at TRP, during which she was part of a winning
bidding team delivering international experience with urban intensification to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the
Environment, New Zealand. Her teaching career spans over 13 years. Her publications are concerned with
sustainability in developing countries, social concerns and urban form and design.