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Interested Parties
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
July 18, 2016

CAFORIO IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF STEVE KNIGHT

Democrat Bryan Caforio trails Republican Congressman
Steve Knight by just 6 points in a DCCC poll of likely
general election voters conducted on July 5, 2016 (40%
to 46%, with 14% undecided). Caforios standing has
improved significantly since the spring due to his
consolidation of Democrats.
Knight is extremely vulnerable, as he fails to win 50% of
the vote.
Not only is Caforio closing the gap on Steve Knight, he has an 8-point lead with crucial Decline To State
(DTS) voters (40% to 32%). Among Hispanic voters, who make up 26% of the district, Caforio leads by 25
points (53% to 28%).

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE 25TH DISTRICT ARE STRONGER THAN EVER

With a Democratic registration advantage for the first time, Californias 25th district presents a prime
opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Congressional seat in 2016.
Democrats have a one-point lead over Republicans in the generic ballot (45% to 44%). Democrats lead
by 3 points with DTS voters (40% to 37%), by 18 points with Hispanics (52% to 34%), and by 21 points
with young voters (52% to 31%).

HILLARY CLINTON LEADS DONALD TRUMP BY 5 POINTS IN THE DISTRICT

Caforio also benefits from an anti-Trump wave. In the Presidential race, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads
Republican Donald Trump by 5 points overall (41% to 36%) and Hispanic voters support Clinton over
Trump by a 38-point margin (56% to 18%).
Located in the greater Los Angeles area, CA-25 is a majority suburban district (52.9%) with an average
income higher than the state average. Hispanics comprise 26.3% of the Citizen Voting Age Population,
African Americans make up 8.3% and Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders cover 8.4% of the population.
Note: These results are based on a survey of 400 likely 2016 general election voters in CA-25 conducted by DCCC on
July 6, 2016. Respondents information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone
via a live or robopoll (IVR) survey. The margin of error is +/- 4.9.