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Technical note
Impact of wind speed variations on wind farm economy in the open market
conditions
Zeljko
urisi
c*, Jovan Mikulovi
c, Iva Babi
c
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, Belgrade, Serbia
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 15 October 2011
Accepted 11 March 2012
Available online 5 April 2012
Stimulating measures for the production of electrical energy from renewable energy sources (RES) are
guaranteed over certain period of operation. Their aim is that the wind power plants (WPP) and other
RES are brought to a concurrent position with the conventional power plants at the open market of
electrical energy. In perspective, power market conditions should be made equal for all electricity
producers. In such conditions, the economy aspects of a WPP are affected not only by the amount of
produced electricity but also by the daily and yearly production proles. The paper denes correlation
indices between the price prole of electricity at the open market and seasonal and daily proles of WPP
production. These indices could serve as a quantitative measure of the inuence of the seasonal and daily
proles of wind speed on the economy of the project of a WPP.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Wind farm
Electricity market
Correlation index
1. Introduction
Production costs of electrical energy in WPP in the existing
market conditions are still higher compared to those of the
conventional power plants. On the other hand, production costs of
electrical energy still do not take into account the external costs [1],
which will signicantly affect the costs of conventional power
plants [1,2]. Inclusion of the external costs will create conditions
where RES have become competitive in the open market of electrical energy. In the existing conditions, for the purpose of motivating electrical energy production from RES, the governments of
many countries have undertaken various stimulating measures for
production of electrical energy from RES. The literature contains
[3,4] a survey of different instruments for stimulation of electrical
energy production from WPP and other RES.
Over the last ten years, Feed-In Tariff (FIT) systems have
become an effective instrument of generating electricity from
RES, especially through WPP production. The central principle of
FIT policies is to offer guaranteed prices for xed periods of time
for electricity produced from WPP [5,6]. Through this system,
Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System
Operator (DSO) are required to buy the energy generated by WPP.
This mechanism, in various forms, is widely accepted by the
majority of European countries [5], including Germany, Spain, and
Denmark [7], the leading countries in Europe as regards wind
* Corresponding author.
urisi
E-mail address: djurisic@etf.rs (Z.
c).
0960-1481/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.03.015
290
Fig. 1. Level and duration of FIT of onshore WPPs commissioned in 2009 in several European countries.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
P24
CWPMd
j 1 Ej $POMj
24$Eavg $POMavg
24
1 X
e $p ;
24 j 1 j OMj
(6)
291
P12
12
X
m 1 Tm $Em $POMm
tm $em $pOMm ;
8760$Eavg $POMavg
m1
CWPMs
(7)
Veffi Vi
ri
r0
1
3
(8)
where ri is the actual air density at the hub height of the wind
turbine. The air density can be calculated on the basis of the air
temperature and air pressure measurements by using the following
equation:
ri
pi
kg=m3 ;
RTi
(9)
where: pi is the air pressure (Pa) over the 10-min time interval i, Ti is
the air temperature over the 10 min time interval i in degrees of
Kelvin, and R is the specic gas constant for air (287J/kgK).
The electrical power of the wind turbine for each 10 min interval
i is estimated according to the following relation:
292
Ei Epowercurve Veffi ;
(10)
Ei Epower curve Vi
ri
:
r0
(11)
The average annual production power (Eavg) of a WPP is estimated on the basis of the following relation:
Eavg
N
1 X
E:
N i1 i
(12)
CF
Eavg
;
En
(13)
Fig. 2. Average normalized hourly electricity price at EEX for each year over the period 2007e2011.
293
Fig. 3. Average normalized monthly electricity price at EEX over the period 2007e2011.
[24]. The analyses have been carried out assuming that WPP
Bavanistansko Polje has been realized by using wind turbines
Vestas V90, 2 MW, H 105 m. On the basis of two-years-long
measurements (2009e2010) of wind speed at the location of
WPP and the methodology described in Section 3.1, estimates of the
daily prole of the WPP power production have been obtained. The
estimated net AEP of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is 484.2 GWh.
Fig. 4 shows the estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010. It can be
concluded that the average hourly production proles of WPP
Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010 are very similar. Thus,
it can be assumed that the daily production prole of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is very stable on the year by year basis.
Fig. 5 shows concurrently the normalized average hourly
diagram of the estimated WPP production and normalized average
hourly prices of electrical energy at EEX for an average day over the
two years period 2009e2010. Fig. 5 shows concurrently the
normalized average monthly productions of WPP Bavanistansko
Polje and normalized average monthly prices of electrical energy at
EEX.
By a comparative analysis of the diagram of Fig. 5 one can
conclude that the correlation between the average daily variation of
the price of electrical energy and average daily variation of the
production of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is relatively weak. On the
basis of relation (6) the calculated average daily correlation index is
CWPMd 0.973. On the basis of relation (7) the calculated average
seasonal correlation index is CWPMs 0.999. Finally, the correlation
index between the production of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and
prices at EEX electricity market is, according to relation (5), CWPPz
CWPMd 0.973. Based on the previous analysis and relation (4), one
Fig. 4. The estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010.
294
Fig. 5. The estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and normalized hourly prices of electrical energy at EEX for an average day over
2009e2010.
for each year, for the period 2007e2011 (Fig. 2) the corresponding
statistical deviation has been calculated. The results are shown in
Fig. 7.
It can be concluded that the average daily prole of the price of
electrical energy is quite stable on the year by year basis, within the
analyzed period of ve years, the standard deviation of average
hourly values being within the range from 3 to 10%.
Fig. 8 shows standard deviation of the average monthly prices at
EEX on the year by year basis over the period 2007e2011.
Compared to the daily prole, the seasonal prole is not stable
on the year by year basis, the dispersion being more pronounced
over the cooler period of the year. Having in mind statistically small
dispersions of the average monthly prices fro the annual average
and a high discretion on the year by year basis, for EEX market one
can adopt the assumption that the seasonal correlation index is
CWPMs 1. It should be mentioned here that this conclusion
couldnt in advance be made generally applicable to all markets.
Fig. 6. The normalized average monthly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and normalized average monthly prices of electrical energy at EEX.
295
Fig. 7. Standard deviation of the average daily prole of prices at EEX on the year by year basis over the period 2007e2011.
Fig. 8. Standard deviation of average monthly prices at EEX over the period 2007e2011.
296
Fig. 9. Range of values of the correlation index CWPM at EEX for different values of capacity factor (CF) of a WPP.
7. Conclusion
For the purpose of assessing the economy of the project of
a WPP under open market conditions, it is necessary to analyze the
correlation between the production diagram and diagram of the
market prices, in addition to making an estimate of AEP. The paper
denes correlation index between the production prole and prices
prole at an electricity market. This index represents a measure of
quality of the wind as regards the daily and seasonal variations. For
the purpose of estimation this index (CWPM) one should have
measurement data concerning average daily and seasonal proles
of the wind at the WPP location, as well as the average daily and
seasonal prole of prices at the considered auction.
For each electricity market it is possible to dene theoretical
limiting values of the correlation index CWPM for a WPP which are
functions of the capacity factor CF of the WPP only. By a comparative analysis of the estimated CWPM of a WPP and the corresponding
limiting values CWPMmin and CWPMmax the quality of wind as regards
the daily and seasonal proles can be estimated.
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