Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A. INTRODUCTION
A
fter the securities are issued in the primary market, they are
traded in the secondary market by the investors. The stock
exchanges along with a host of other intermediaries provide
the necessary platform for trading in secondary market and also for
clearing and settlement. The securities are traded, cleared and settled
within the regulatory framework prescribed by the Exchanges and the
SEBI. Till recently, it was mandatory for the companies to list their
securities on the regional stock exchange nearest to their registered
office, in order to provide an opportunity to investors to invest/trade in
the securities of local companies. However, following the withdrawal of
this restriction, the companies have an option to choose from any one
of the existing stock exchanges in India to list their securities. Due to
the earlier regulation requiring companies to get listed first at the
regional stock exchange, there are in all 23 exchanges operating today
in the country.
M
obilization of savings from surplus savers to deficit savers is
most efficiently carried out by the securities market through
a range of complex products called “securities”. The
definition of securities as per the SCRA, 1956 includes shares, bonds,
scrips, stocks or other marketable securities of like nature in or of any
incorporate company or body corporate, government securities,
derivatives of securities, units of collective investment scheme,
interest and rights in securities, security receipt or any other
instruments so declared by the central government. The securities
market has essentially three categories of participants, viz., the issuer
of securities, investors in securities and the intermediaries. The issuers
are the borrowers or deficit savers, who issue securities to raise funds.
The investors, who are surplus savers, deploy their savings by
subscribing to these securities. The intermediaries are the agents who
match the needs of users and suppliers of funds for a commission.
These intermediaries pack and unpack securities to help both the
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 3
C. MARKET SEGMENTS
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 4
T
he securities market has two interdependent segments: the
primary and the secondary market. The primary market is the
channel for creation of new securities. These securities are
issued by public limited companies or by government agencies. In the
primary market the resources are mobilized either through the public
issue or through private placement route. It is a public issue if anybody
and everybody can subscribe for it, whereas if the issue is made
available to a selected group of persons it is termed as private
placement. There are two major types of issuers of securities, the
corporate entities who issue mainly debt and equity instruments and
the government (central as well as state) who issue debt securities.
These new securities issued in the primary market are traded in the
secondary market. The secondary market enables participants who
hold securities to adjust their holdings in response to changes in their
assessment of risks and returns. The secondary market operates
through two mediums, namely, the over-the-counter (OTC) market and
the exchange-traded market. OTC markets are informal markets where
trades are negotiated. Most of the trades in the government securities
are in the OTC market. All the spot trades where securities are traded
for immediate delivery and payment take place in the OTC market. The
other option is to trade using the infrastructure provided by the stock
exchanges. There are 23 exchanges in India and all of them follow a
systematic settlement period. All the trades taking place over a trading
cycle (day=T) are settled together after a certain time (T+2 day).
The trades executed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) are cleared
and settled by a clearing corporation. The clearing corporation acts as
a counterparty and guarantees settlement. Nearly 100% of the trades
in capital market segment are settled through demat delivery. NSE
also provides a formal trading platform for trading of a wide range of
debt securities, including government securities. A variant of the
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 5
D. SECONDARY MARKET
C
orporate Securities - There are 23 exchanges in the
country, which offer screen based trading system. The trading
system is connected using the VSAT technology from over 357
cities. There were 9,368 trading members registered with SEBI as at
end March 2004 (Table 1-10).
The market capitalization has grown over the period indicating more
companies using the trading platform of the stock exchange. The all
India market capitalization is estimated at Rs. 13,187,953 million at
the end of March 2004. The market capitalization ratio defined as the
value of listed stocks divided by GDP is used as a measure of stock
market size. It is of economic significance since market is positively
correlated with the ability to mobilize capital and diversify risk. It
increased sharply to 52.3% in 2003-04 against 28.5% in the previous
year. The trading volumes on exchanges have been witnessing
phenomenal growth over the past decade. The trading volume, which
peaked at Rs. 28,809,900 million in 2000-01, fell substantially to Rs.
9,689,093 million in 2002-03. However, the year 2003-04 saw a
turnaround in the total trading volumes on the exchanges. It registered
a volume of Rs. 16,204,977 million. The turnover ratio, which reflects
the volume of trading in relation to the size of the market, has been
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 6
The movement of the S&P CNX Nifty, the most widely used indicator of
the market, is presented in Chart 1-1. The index movement has been
responding to changes in the government’s economic policies, the
increase in FIIs inflows, etc. However, the year 2003-04 witnessed a
favorable movement in the Nifty, wherein it registered its all time high
in January 2004 of 2014.65. The point-to-point return of Nifty was
80.14% for 2003-04.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 7
G
overnment Securities - The trading in government
securities exceeded the combined trading in equity segments
of all the exchanges in the country during 2003-04. The
aggregate trading in central and state government dated securities,
including treasury bills, increased by manifold over a period of time.
During 2003-04 it reached a level of Rs. 26,792,090 million. The share
of WDM segment of NSE in total turnover for government securities
decreased marginally from 52% in 2002-03 to 47.6% in 2003-04.
However, the share of WDM segment of NSE in the total of Non-repo
government securities increased marginally from 74.01% in 2002-03 to
74.89% in 2003-04 (Table 1-10).
END OF CHAPTER I
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 8
S
EBI Act, 1992: The SEBI Act, 1992 was enacted to empower
SEBI with statutory powers for (a) protecting the interests of
investors in securities, (b) promoting the development of the
securities market, and (c) regulating the securities market. Its
regulatory jurisdiction extends over corporates in the issuing capital
and all intermediaries and persons associated with securities market. It
can conduct enquiries, audits and inspection of all concerned
participants and adjudicate offences under this Act. It has powers to
register and regulate all the market intermediaries. Further it can also
penalize them in case of violations of the provisions of the Act, Rules
and Regulations made there under. SEBI has full autonomy and
authority to regulate and develop an orderly securities market.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 9
S
ecurities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956: It provides for
direct and indirect control of virtually all aspects of the
securities trading including the running of stock exchanges
with an aim to prevent undesirable transactions in securities. It gives
the Central Government regulatory jurisdiction over (a) stock
exchanges through a process of recognition and continued
supervision, (b) contracts in securities, and (c) listing of securities on
stock exchanges. As a condition of recognition, a stock exchange
complies with the requirements prescribed by the Central Government.
The stock exchanges frame their own listing regulations in consonance
with the minimum listing criteria set out in the Rules.
D
epositories Act, 1996: The Depositories Act, 1996
provides for the establishment of depositories for securities
to ensure transferability of securities with speed, accuracy
and security. For this, these provisions have been made: (a) making
securities of public limited companies freely transferable subject to
certain exceptions; (b) dematerializing the securities in the depository
mode; and (c) providing for maintenance of ownership records in a
book entry form. In order to streamline the settlement process, the Act
envisages transfer of ownership of securities electronically by book
entry without moving the securities from persons to persons. The Act
has made the securities of all public limited companies freely
transferable, restricting the company’s right to use discretion in
effecting the transfer of securities, and the transfer deed and other
procedural requirements under the Companies Act have been
dispensed with.
C
ompanies Act, 1956: It deals with issue, allotment and
transfer of securities and various aspects relating to company
management. It provides for standards of disclosure in the
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 10
T
he Government has framed rules under the SCRA, the SEBI Act
and the Depositories Act. The SEBI has framed regulations
under these acts for registration and regulation of the market
intermediaries and for prevention of unfair trade practices. Under
these Acts, the Government and the SEBI issue notifications,
guidelines and circulars, which the market participants comply with.
The SROs like the stock exchanges have also laid down their rules and
regulations. The regulator has to ensure that the market participants
behave in a desired manner so that securities market continue to be a
major source of finance for corporate and government while protecting
the interest of investors. The responsibility for regulating the securities
market is shared jointly by Department of Economic Affairs (DEA),
Department of Company Affairs (DCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and
SEBI. The activities of all these agencies are coordinated by a High
Level Committee on Capital Markets. Most of the powers under the
SCRA are exercisable by DEA while a few others by SEBI and some are
concurrently by them. The regulation of the contracts for sale and
purchase of securities, gold related securities, money market
securities and securities derived from these securities and ready
forward contracts in debt securities are exercised concurrently with
the RBI. The SEBI Act and the Depositories Act are mostly administered
by SEBI. While the rules under the securities laws are framed by
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 11
END OF CHAPTER II
CHAPTER III - REFORMS IN INDIAN SECURITIES MARKETS
A. Policy Developments
O
ver the last decade the Government and the market
regulators have taken several policy measures to improve the
operations of the stock exchanges and market intermediaries.
The measures are aimed at improving the market infrastructure and
upgradation of risk containment, so as to protect the interest of the
investors. The policy developments during April 2003 and June 2004
pertaining to trading of securities are enumerated below:
I. Union Budget
The Union Budget for 2004-05 proposed the following measures that
have a bearing on the functioning of the secondary market:
1. An alternate trading platform for Small and Medium Enterprises
(SME) have been proposed to be set up. This will help these
enterprises in raising equity and debt from the Capital Market.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 12
V. Listing Fees
It has been decided by SEBI, that the stock exchanges should have the
freedom to charge listing fees without seeking prior approval from the
SEBI. Accordingly, the exchanges have been directed to make
necessary amendments to the bye-laws, rules and regulations/listing
agreement.
• make sure that the arbitral award is given within the period
stipulated in the Bye-Laws, Rules or Regulations of the Exchange
and in any case, the award is to be delivered within 15 days after
the final meeting.
• priorities redressing of investor grievances by encouraging fair
trade practice. They should also make use of every opportunity
to enhance and improve their level of knowledge, so that they
are able to resolve various issues arising in the operations of the
exchange with professional competence, fairness, impartiality,
efficiency and effectiveness.
• submit the necessary disclosures/statement of holdings/dealings
in securities as required by the Exchange as per their Rules or
Articles of Association.
• maintain confidentiality about any information obtained in the
discharge of their duty unless otherwise required by law. Further,
they should not use the confidential information for their
personal gains.
• avoid any interest or activity which is in conflict with the conduct
of their official duties.
• not engage in any act involving moral turpitude, dishonesty,
fraud, deceit, or misrepresentation or any other act prejudicial to
the administration of the exchange.
A
t the end of March 2004, there were 23 operative stock
exchanges with 9,368 registered brokers and 12,815
registered sub-broker trading on them (Annexure 4-1). The
stock exchanges need to be recognized under the Securities Contracts
(Regulation) Act, 1956. Of the 23 recognized stock exchanges, only 3
exchanges (Mumbai, Ahmedabad, and Madhya Pradesh) are organized
in the form of “Association of Persons”, while the rest are organized as
limited companies. Except NSE, all exchanges are not-for-profit making
organizations. Realizing the problems of a non-demutualised set up, a
committee under the chairmanship of Chief Justice M. H. Kania was set
up (i) to review the present structures of stock exchanges (ii) to
examine the legal, financial and fiscal issues involved to corporatise
and demutualise the stock exchanges, and recommend the specific
steps that need for demutualisation, and (iii) to advise on the
consolidation and merger of the stock exchanges. The committee
recommended a uniform model of demutualisation and corporatisation
and advised the stock exchanges to initiate the process of getting
demutualised. As on date only two exchanges viz., NSE and OTCEI are
demutualised and others are in the process of getting demutualised.
S
tock exchanges provide liquidity to the listed companies. By
giving quotations to the listed companies, they help trading
and raising funds from the market. Savings of investors flow
into public loans and to joint-stock enterprises because of this ready
marketability and unequalled facility for transfer of ownership of
stocks, shares and securities provided by the recognized stock
exchanges. As a result, over the hundred and twenty years during
which the stock exchanges have existed in this country and through
their medium, the Central and State governments have raised crores
of rupees by floating public loans ; Municipal corporations,
Improvement trusts Local Bodies and State Finance Corporations have
obtained from the public their financial requirements, and industry ,
trade and commerce-the backbone of country’s economy –have
secured capital of crores of rupees through issue of stocks, shares and
debentures for financing their day to day requirements, organizing
new ventures and completing projects of expansion , diversification
and modernization. By obtaining the listing and trading facilities, public
investment is increased and companies were able to raise more funds.
The quoted companies with wide public interest have enjoyed some
benefits and asset valuation has become easier for tax and other
purposes.
In line with the growth in the new issues market during the eighties,
the secondary market also expanded fast during this period. The
number of stock exchanges has increased from 8 in 1980 to a total 24
in 1996. The membership of the stock exchanges has also increased
substantially over the years. The number of listed companies has also
increased and the market capitalization has also shown a substantial
increase. The volume of daily turnover of trade and the number of
dealings per day have gone up sharply.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 35
B. Membership
T
he trading platform of a stock exchange is accessible only to
brokers. They play a significant role in the secondary market by
bringing together the buyers and sellers. The brokers input
buy/sell orders either on his own account or on behalf of clients. The
clients may place their orders either with them directly or through a
sub-broker indirectly. Thus, as these buy and sell order matches, the
trades are executed. The exchange can admit a broker as its member
only on the basis of the terms specified in the Securities Contracts
(Regulation) Act, 1956, the SEBI Act 1992, the rules, circulars,
notifications, guidelines, and the byelaws, rules and regulations of the
concerned exchange. No stock broker or sub-broker is allowed to buy,
sell or deal in securities, unless he or she holds a certificate of
registration from the SEBI. The stock exchanges, however, are free to
stipulate stricter requirements than those stipulated by the SEBI. The
minimum standards stipulated by NSE are in excess of those laid down
by the SEBI. The NSE admits members based on factors, such as,
corporate structure, capital adequacy, track record, education, and
experience (Table 4-2). This reflects a conscious decision of NSE to
ensure quality broking services. The authorities have been
encouraging corporatisation of the broking industry. As a result, a
number of brokers-proprietor firms and partnership firms have
converted themselves into corporates. As at end-March 2004, there
were brokers 9,368 (including multiple registrations) registered with
SEBI as compared to 9,519 brokers as at end-March 2003. As of end-
March 2004, 3,787 brokers, accounting for nearly 40% of total have
become corporate entities. Amongst those registered with NSE around
88.97% of them were corporatised, followed by OTCEI with 77.85%
corporate brokers. As at end-March 2004, there were 12,815 sub-
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 36
C. Listing of Securities
L
isting means formal admission of a security to the trading
platform of a stock exchange. Listing of securities on the
domestic stock exchanges is governed by the provisions in the
Companies Act, 1956, the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956
(SC(R)A), the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules (SC(R)R), 1957,
the circulars/guidelines issued by Central Government and SEBI. In
addition, they are also governed by the rules, bye-laws and regulations
of the concerned stock exchange and by the listing agreement entered
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 37
into by the issuer and the stock exchange. Some of the key provisions
are enumerated below:
1. The Companies Act, 1956 requires a company intending to issue
securities to the public should seek a permission from one or more
recognized stock exchanges for its listing. If the permission is not
granted by all the stock exchanges before the expiry of 10 weeks from
the closure of the issue, then the allotment of securities would be void.
Also, a company may prefer to appeal against refusal of a stock
exchange to list its securities to the Securities Appellate Tribunal
(SAT). The prospectus should state the names of the stock exchanges,
where the securities are proposed to be listed.
2. The bye-laws of the exchanges stipulate norms for the listing of
securities. All listed companies are under obligation to comply with the
conditions of listing agreement with the stock exchange where their
securities are listed. If they fail to comply with them, then they are
punishable with a fine up to Rs. 1,000.
3. The SC(R)R prescribe requirements with respect to the listing of
securities on a recognized stock exchange and empowers SEBI to
waive or relax the strict enforcement of any or all of them.
4. The listing agreement states that the issuer should agree to adhere
to the agreement of listing, except for a written permission from the
SEBI. As a precondition for the security to remain listed, an issuer
should comply with the conditions as may be prescribed by the
Exchange. Further, the securities are listed on the Exchange at its
discretion, as the Exchange has the right to suspend or remove from
the list the said securities at any time and for any reason, which it
considers appropriate.
5. A SEBI circular asserts that the basic norms of listing on the stock
exchanges should be uniform across the exchanges. However, the
stock exchanges can prescribe additional norms over and above the
minimum, which should be part of their bye-laws. SEBI has been
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 38
D. Trading Mechanism
N
SE was the first stock exchange in the country to provide
nation-wide, anonymous, order driven, screen-based trading
system, known as the National Exchange for Automated
Trading (NEAT) system. The member inputs, in the NEAT system, the
details of his order such as the quantities and prices of securities at
which he desires to transact. The transaction is executed as soon as it
finds a matching sale or buys order from a counter party. All the orders
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 39
and further to the exchange. After these orders are matched, the
transaction is executed and the investors get the confirmation directly
on their PCs. SEBI has also allowed trading through wireless medium or
Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) platform. NSE is the only exchange
to provide access to its order book through the hand held devices,
which use WAP technology. This particularly helps those retail
investors, who are mobile and want to trade from any place.
E. Technology
W
ith the developments in communication and network
technologies, there has been a paradigm shifts in the
operations of the securities market across the globe.
Technology has enabled organizations to build new sources of
competitive advantage, bring about innovations in products and
services, and provide new business opportunities. Stock exchanges all
over the world have realized the potential of IT and have moved over
to electronic trading systems, which have wider reach and provide a
better mechanism for trade and post trade execution. Given the
importance of technology in shaping the securities industry, NSE has
been emphasizing on innovations and sustained investments in
technology. NSE is the first exchange in the world to use satellite
communication technology for trading and also has the largest VSAT-
based trading network in the world and largest VSAT network for any
purpose in the Asia Pacific region. It uses satellite communication
technology to energize participation from more than 2,800 VSATs from
approximately 365 cities spread all over the country. It has been
continuously undertaking capacity enhancement measures so as to
effectively meet the requirements of increased users and associated
trading loads. NSE’s trading system called the National Exchange for
Automated Trading (NEAT), is a state of-the-art client server based
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 41
F. Trading Rules
I
nsider Trading: Insider trading is considered an offence and is
hence prohibited. The SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading)
Regulations, 1992 prohibits an insider from dealing (on his own
behalf or on behalf of others) in listed securities on the basis of
‘unpublished price sensitive information’. It also prohibits
communicating, counseling or procuring such information from any
other person to deal in securities of any company on the basis of such
information. Price sensitive information for a security is any
information, which if published, is likely to affect its price. It includes
information regarding the financial results of the company, intended
declaration of dividends, issue of securities or buy back of securities,
amalgamation, mergers, takeovers, and any major policy changes.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 42
U
nfair Trade Practices: The SEBI (Prohibition of Fraudulent
and Unfair Trade Practices in relation to the Securities
Market) Regulations, 1995 empowers SEBI to investigate into
cases of market manipulation, fraudulent and unfair trade practices.
The regulations define frauds as acts committed by a party of the
contract or by his agent, with intent to deceive another party or his
agent or to induce him to enter into the contract. The regulations
specifically prohibit market manipulation, misleading statements to
induce sale or purchase of securities, and unfair trade practices
relating to securities. Under these regulations, SEBI can investigate
into violations committed by any person, including an investor, issuer
or an intermediary, suo moto or upon information received by it. Based
on the report of the investigating officer, SEBI can initiate action for
suspension or cancellation of registration of an intermediary.
T
akeovers: The restructuring of companies through takeover is
governed by the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and
Takeovers) Regulations, 1997. The Regulations were
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 43
B
uy Back: Buy back is done by the company with the purpose
to improve liquidity in its shares and enhance the
shareholders’ wealth. Under the SEBI (Buy Back of Securities)
Regulations, 1998, a company is permitted to buy back its shares
from:
(a) existing shareholders on a proportionate basis through the offer
document;
(b) open market through stock exchanges using book building process;
and
(c) shareholders holding odd lot shares.
The company has to disclose the pre and post-buy back holdings of the
promoters. To ensure completion of the buy back process speedily, the
regulations have stipulated
time limit for each step. For example, in the cases of purchases
through stock exchanges, an offer for buy back should not remain
open for more than 30 days. The verification of shares received in buy
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 44
C
ircuit Breakers: Volatility in stock prices is a cause of
concern for both the policy makers and the investors. To curb
excessive volatility, SEBI has prescribed a system of circuit
breakers. The circuit breakers bring about a nation-wide coordinated
halt in trading on all the equity and equity derivatives markets. An
index based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at three
stages of the index movement either way at 10%, 15% and 20%. The
breakers are triggered by movement of either S&P CNX Nifty or
Sensex, whichever is breached earlier. Further, the NSE views entries
of non-genuine orders with utmost seriousness as this has market-wide
repercussion. It may suo-moto cancel the orders in the absence of any
immediate confirmation from the members that these orders are
genuine or for any other reason as it may deem fit. As an additional
measure of safety, individual scrip-wise price bands have been fixed as
below:
• Daily price bands of 2% (either way) on a set of specified
securities,
• Daily price bands of 5% (either way) on a set of specified
securities,
• Daily price bands of 10% (either way) on another set of specified
securities,
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 45
D
emat Trading: A depository holds securities in
dematerialised form. It maintains ownership records of
securities in a book entry form, and also effects transfer of
ownership through book entry. Though, the investors have a right to
hold securities in either physical or demat form, SEBI has made it
compulsory that trading in securities should be only in dematerialised
form. This was initially introduced for institutional investors and was
later extended to all investors. The companies, which fail to establish
connectivity with both the depositories on the scheduled date as
announced by SEBI, their securities are traded on the ‘trade for trade’
settlement window of the exchanges. At the end of March 2004, the
number of companies connected to NSDL and CDSL were 5,212 and
4,720, respectively. The number of dematerialised securities have
increased from 76.9 billion at the end of March 2003 to 97.7 billion at
the end of March 2004. During the same period the value of
dematerialised securities has increased from Rs. 5,875 billion to Rs.
10,701 billion. Since the introduction of the depository system,
dematerialization has progressed at a fast pace and has gained
acceptance amongst the market participants. All actively traded scrips
are held, traded and settled in demat form.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 46
A
s per SEBI Regulations, every stockbroker, on the basis of his
total turnover, is required to pay annual turnover charges,
which are to be collected by the stock exchanges. In order to
share the benefits of efficiency, NSE has been reducing the transaction
charges over a period of time. At present a trading member is required
to pay the exchange transaction charges @0.004% (Rs. 4 per Rs.1
lakh) of the turnover.
Stamp duties are payable as per the rates prescribed by the relevant
states. In Maharashtra, it is charged @ Re. 1 for every Rs. 10,000 or
part thereof (i.e. 0.01%) of the value of security at the time of its
purchase/sale as the case may be. However, if the securities are not
delivered, it is levied @ 20 paise for every Rs. 10,000 or part there of
(0.002%). The depositories provide depository services to investors
through depository participants (DPs). They do not charge the
investors directly, but charge their DPs who are free to have their own
free structure for their clients. The depositories, however, have been
reducing their charges from DPs over a period of time. The charges
levied on DPs by NSDL and CDSL are presented in Table 4-4b.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 47
H. Institutional Trades
T
rades by Mutual Funds and Foreign Institutional Investors are
termed as Institutional trades, Transactions by MFs in the
secondary market are governed by SEBI (Mutual Funds)
Regulations, 1996. A MF under all its schemes is not allowed to own
more than 10% of any company’s paid-up capital. They are allowed to
do only ‘delivery-based’ transactions. A MF cannot invest more than
10% of the NAV of a particular scheme in the equity shares or equity
related instruments of a single company. The investments by FIIs are
governed by the rules and regulations of the RBI and the SEBI. As per
the RBI guidelines, each FII can invest up to 10% of the paid-up capital
of a company; however, the total FII investment should not exceed
24%. This can, however, be increased up to the sectoral cap/statutory
ceiling, as applicable, provided the Indian company’s board of
directors and also its general body approve it. As per the SEBI
guidelines, all FII transactions are to be routed through a registered
member of a recognized stock exchange in India. FIIs have to
necessarily give and take delivery of securities sold and bought.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 48
I. Index Services
A
stock index consists of a set of stocks that are representative
of either the whole market, or a specified sector. It helps to
measure the change in overall behaviour of the markets or
sector over a period of time. NSE and CRISIL, in technical partnership
with Standard & Poor’s, have jointly promoted the India Index Services
& Products Limited (IISL). The IISL provides stock index services by
developing and maintaining an array of indices for stock prices. IISL is
the only specialized organization of this type in the country. IISL
maintains a number of equity indices comprising broad-based
benchmark indices, sectoral indices and customized indices. The most
popular index is the S&P CNX Nifty, followed by the CNX Nifty Junior,
S&P CNX Defty, S&P CNX 500, CNX Midcap 200, S&P CNX Industry
indices (for 73 industries) and CNX IT Index. These indices are
monitored and updated dynamically and are reviewed regularly. These
are maintained professionally to ensure that it continues to be a
consistent benchmark of the equity markets, which involves inclusion
and exclusion of stocks in the index, day-to-day tracking and giving
effect to corporate actions on individual stocks. S&P CNX Nifty is a well
diversified 50 stock index accounting for 24 sectors of the economy. It
accounted for 56.97% of total market capitalization of CM segment of
NSE as at end-March 2004. The total traded value of all Nifty stocks is
approximately 77% of the traded value of all the stocks on the NSE.
CNX Nifty Junior accounts for 11.6% of the market capitalization in
NSE. After carrying out a number of iterations, it was felt that Indian
stock market had comfortable liquidity at around 50 stocks. Beyond
50, the liquidity levels became increasingly lower. Hence the index set
size of 50 stocks was chosen. The stocks included in the Nifty index
are selected on the basis of their impact cost, liquidity and market
capitalization. The composition of Nifty is reviewed at every quarter.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 49
The index is calculated afresh every time a trade takes place in any of
the index stock. It is calculated on-line and disseminated over trading
terminals across the country. Annexure 4-2 to 4-5 present the market
capitalization, weightage, beta and monthly returns of the S&P CNX
Nifty stocks for the period April 2003-March 2004. S&P CNX Nifty was
introduced considering the fact that it would not only be used for
reflecting the stock market behavior accurately, but also for modern
applications such as index funds and index derivatives. It has become
the most popular and widely used stock market indicator in the
country. Index futures and options have been launched based on S&P
CNX Nifty index and on CNX IT Index. Futures contracts based on S&P
CNX Nifty have also been launched at the derivative exchange at
Singapore. It is the only Indian index-based derivative product traded
on a foreign exchange.
J. Market Outcome
T
urnover – Growth and Distribution: Trading volumes in the
equity segments of the stock exchanges have witnessed
phenomenal growth over the last few years. While it has
increased from Rs. 10,233,820 million in 1998-99 to Rs. 28,809,900
million in 2000-01, it witnessed a slump during 2001-02 registering
volumes of only Rs. 8,958,180 million. The traits of recovery in the
market are visibly seen for the last two years. The volumes have risen
to Rs. 9,689,093 million in 2002-03 and further to Rs. 16,204,977
million in 2003-04. In percentage terms there has been a growth of
67.29% in 2003-04 over the previous
year’s volume (Table 4-5). The monthly trading value of the CM
segment on NSE increased from Rs. 489,713 million in April 2003 to
Rs. 1,048,765 million in March 2004 (Table 4-6). The daily turnover on
NSE averaged around Rs. 43,289 million in this year. Most of the
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 50
trades for Rs. 379,451 million constituting 3.45% of the total trading
volume were routed and executed through the internet. NEATiXS a
product of the NSE.IT helps brokerage firms to conduct internet
trading, which can be accessed easily using standard browsers. It
provides real time
on-line market information including stock quotes and order screens,
allowing investors to place orders from their personal computers. The
success of internet trading in India, however, will depend on expansion
of internet bandwidth, which is necessary for faster execution of
trades.
K. Market Capitalization
T
he market capitalization for securities available for trading on
the equity segment of NSE and BSE witnessed enormous
growth over the previous years (Table 4-6). The market
capitalization of NSE and BSE as at end March 2004 amounted to Rs.
11,209,760 million and Rs. 12,012,068 million respectively. A sharp
change in the shares of different sectors in market capitalization is
observed over the years (Table 4-8). Sectors like manufacturing, which
used to dominate in terms of market capitalization with more than
35% in the year 1998-99, have shown declines in 2001-02 and 2002-
03. However, they witnessed a turnaround in 2003-04 having
registered 31.13% share in market capitalization of the top 50
companies.
L. Prices
T
he year 2003-04 proved to be good for all the major indices in
the world. The S&P CNX Nifty index, which remained subdued
for the early part of 2003, rose sharply from August 2003
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 56
J. Volatility
T
he stock markets witnessed maximum volatility in January 2004
due to the fear of possible ban on the use of Participatory Notes
(P-Notes), wherein it was 2.18% and 2.05% on Nifty and
Sensex, respectively (Table 4-12). However, in May 2003 lowest
volatility was witnessed at 0.74% and 0.72% for S&P CNX Nifty and
Sensex respectively. Chart 4-2 presents the volatility of S&P CNX Nifty,
Sensex and NASDAQ. The volatility across different sectoral indices
varied widely (Table 4 -13). For the month of April 2003, while the Nifty
volatility was 1.38%, the volatility of CNX IT Index was 5.20%.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 58
T
he performance of S&P CNX Nifty and various other indices
over different periods of last one month to 12 months is
presented in Table 4-14. It reveals that the indices have
performed with varying degrees over varying periods. A common
phenomenon observed was that some of the indices provided
substantial gains in the longer period of 6 months and one year, but
did not give encouraging returns for the shorter periods of 1 month, 3
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 59
T
he first ETF in India, the “Nifty BeES (Nifty Benchmark
Exchange Traded Scheme) is based on S&P CNX Nifty. It was
launched in December 2001 by Benchmark Mutual Fund. It is
bought and sold like any other stock on NSE and has all characteristics
of an index fund. As on March end 2003, there were five ETFs launched
on Nifty, Junior Nifty, CNX Bank Index namely, the Nifty BeES, Junior
Nifty BeES, Bank BeES, Liquid BeES and SUNDER (S&P CNX Nifty UTI
Notional Depository Receipts Scheme). Prudential ICICI launched an
ETF based on BSE Sensex, namely SPICE (Sensex Prudential ICICI
Exchange Traded Fund). During the month of March 2004, 637 trades
involving 0.13 million Nifty BeES were transacted. The trading value
was Rs. 22.42 million.
M. Liquidity
M
any listed securities on stock exchanges are not traded
actively. The percentage of companies traded on BSE was
quite low at 35.93% as compared with 97.71% on NSE in
March 2004 (Table 4-15). Only 75.10% of companies traded on BSE
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 61
were traded for more than 100 days during 2003-04, while that on
NSE, it has been 92.16% (Table 4-16). Trading took place for less than
100 days in case of 24.9% of companies traded at BSE during the year,
and for less than 10 days in case of 5.6% of companies traded.
N. Institutional Transactions
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 62
T
hough the volume of trades done by FIIs is not very high as
compared to other market participants, they are the driving
force in determination of market sentiments and price trends.
This is so because, they do only delivery-based trades and they are
perceived to be infallible in their assessment of the market. During
2003-04, the investments made by FIIs were a total turnaround
compared to its performances in the earlier years. The strong risk
adjusted returns of the Indian market have led FIIs to make more
allocations to India. The FIIs registered a net investment of Rs. 457,645
million. The FIIs net investment was highest during the month of
October 2003, when they made net purchases for a peak of Rs. 67,228
million (Table 4-17). The cumulative net FIIs investment touched US$
25.75 billion by end- March 2004. As on end March 2004, the total
number of FIIs registered with SEBI amounted to 540 against 502 in
March 2003.
During 2003-04, the MFs have invested more funds in the debt
instruments than
equity instruments (Table 4-18). In the equity market, MFs were net
buyers to the tune of Rs. 13,157 million during 2003-04. The months of
April 2003, June 2003, September 2003, October 2003 and February
2004 witnessed the MFs in a selling spree in the equity, whereas in the
debt instruments only February 2004 witnessed the MFs in selling
mode.
O. ADR/GDR Prices
A
comparison of the price of ADR/GDR of a company with the
domestic price of its share gives an idea about the extent to
which domestic price of the security is at premium/discount to
the international price. The extent of divergence between the prices of
ADRs/GDRs and the domestic prices of the companies constituting the
Instanex Skindia index is presented in Table 4-19. RBI permitted two-
way fungibility for ADRs/GDRs, which meant that the investors (foreign
institutional or domestic) in any company that has issued ADRs/GDRs
could freely convert the ADRs/GDRs into underlying domestic shares.
They could also reconvert the domestic shares into ADRs/GDRs,
depending on the direction of price change in the stock
P. Takeovers
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 65
I
n 2003-04, there were 65 takeovers under open category involving
Rs. 15,948 million as against Rs. 63,891 million during the
preceding year (Table 4-20). However, there were 171 takeovers
under exempted category involving Rs. 14,357 million as against Rs.
24,284 million in the previous year.
Q. Performance of Brokers
A
s mentioned earlier, there were 9,368 trading members at the
end of March 2004, however, the details of their performance
are not readily available. A brief detail with respect to 799
members of NSE is presented in Table 4-21. It is observed that about
57% of the members had deployed a capital of less than Rs. 20 million
at the end of March 2003, while 5% have deployed more than Rs. 100
million. Similarly about 52% of members had a turnover of less than
Rs. 10,000 million during 2003-04, while about 6% had turnover of
more than Rs. 10,000 crore.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 66
END OF CHAPTER IV
T
echnical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on
price charts. Technical analysis assumes that current prices
should represent all known information about the markets.
Prices not only reflect intrinsic facts, they also represent human
emotion and the pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment.
Prices are, in the end, a function of supply and demand. However, on a
moment to moment basis, human emotions…fear, greed, panic,
hysteria, elation, etc. also dramatically effect prices. Markets may
move based upon people’s expectations, not necessarily facts. A
market "technician" attempts to disregard the emotional component of
trading by making his decisions based upon chart formations,
assuming that prices reflect both facts and emotion.
A. STOCK CHARTS
Stock charts gained popularity in the late 19th Century from the
writings of Charles H. Dow in the Wall Street Journal. His comments,
later known as "Dow Theory", alleged that markets move in all kinds of
measurable trends and that these trends could be deciphered and
predicted in the price movement seen on all charts.
A stock chart is a simple two-axis (x-y) plotted graph of price and time.
Each individual equity, market and index listed on a public exchange
has a chart that illustrates this movement of price over time. Individual
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 68
data plots for charts can be made using the CLOSING price for each
day. The plots are connected together in a single line, creating the
graph. Also, a combination of the OPENING, CLOSING, HIGH and/or
LOW prices for that market session can be used for the data plots. This
second type of data is called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are
then overlaid onto the graph, creating a dense visual display of stock
movement.
B. TRENDS
Use the stock chart to identify the current trend. A trend reflects the
average rate of change in a stock's price over time. Trends exist in all
time frames and all markets. Day traders can establish the trend of
their stocks to within minutes. Long term investors watch trends that
persist for many years.
Range bound price swings back and forth for long periods between
easily seen upper and lower limits. There is no apparent direction to
the price movement on the stock chart and there will be LITTLE or NO
rate of price change.
A famous quote about trends advises that "The trend is your friend".
For traders and investors, this wisdom teaches that you will have more
success taking stock positions in the direction of the prevailing trend
than against it.
C. Volume
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 71
Stocks that are bought with greater interest than sold are said to be
under ACCUMULATION. Stocks that are sold with great interest than
bought are said to be under DISTRIBUTION. Accumulation and
distribution often LEAD price movement. In other words, stocks under
accumulation often will rise some time after the buying begins.
Alternatively, stocks under distribution will often fall some time after
selling begins.
It takes volume for a stock to rise but it can fall of its own weight.
Rallies require the enthusiastic participation of the crowd. When a rally
runs out of new participants, a stock can easily fall. Investors and
traders use indicators such as ON BALANCE VOLUME to see whether
participation is lagging (behind) or leading (ahead) the price action.
How can you organize the endless stream of stock chart data into a
logical format that doesn't require rocket science to interpret? Charts
allow investors and traders to look at past and present price action in
order to make reasonable predictions and wise choices. It is a highly
visual medium. This one fact separates it from the colder world of
value-based analysis.
Pattern analysis gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat
the same bar formations over and over again. These patterns have
been categorized over the years as having a bullish or bearish bias.
Some well-known ones include HEAD and SHOULDERS, TRIANGLES,
RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE BOTTOMS and FLAGS. Also,
chart landscape features such as GAPS and TRENDLINES are said to
have great significance on the future course of price action.
with a herd mentality as price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to
develop known characteristics that repeat themselves over and over
again. Chart interpretation using these two important analysis tools
uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should eventually
translate into price change.
E. Moving Averages
The most popular technical indicator for studying stock charts is the
MOVING AVERAGE. This versatile tool has many important uses for
investors and traders. Take the sum of any number of previous CLOSE
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 75
Plotting moving averages in stock charts reveals how well current price
is behaving as compared to the past. The power of the moving
average line comes from its direct interaction with the price bars.
Current price will always be above or below any moving average
computation. When it is above, conditions are "bullish". When below,
conditions are "bearish". Additionally, moving averages will slope
upward or downward over time. This adds another visual dimension to
a stock analysis.
One of the most common buy or sell signals in all chart analysis is the
MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER. These occur when two moving
averages representing different trends criss-cross. For example, when
a short-term average crosses BELOW a long-term one, a SELL signal is
generated. Conversely, when a short-term crosses ABOVE the long-
term, a BUY signal is generated.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 76
Buyers and sellers are constantly in battle mode. Support defines that
level where buyers are strong enough to keep price from falling
further. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to
allow price to rise further. Support and resistance play different roles
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 77
Support and resistance come in all varieties and strengths. They most
often manifest as horizontal price levels. But trend lines at various
angles represent support and resistance as well. The length of time
that a support or resistance level exists determines the strength or
weakness of that level. The strength or weakness determines how
much buying or selling interest will be required to break the level. Also,
the greater volume traded at any level, the stronger that level will be.
Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all markets. Levels
in longer time frames are stronger than those in shorter time frames.
The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal,
form the basis of technical analysis today. Dow created the Industrial
Average, of top blue chip stocks, and a second average of top railroad
stocks (now the Transport Average). He believed that the behavior of
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 78
the averages reflected the hopes and fears of the entire market. The
behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout the
world.
G. Dow Theory
I. Three Movements
Markets fluctuate in more than one time frame at the same time:
Nothing is more certain than that the market has three well defined
movements which fit into each other.
• The first is the daily variation due to local causes and the
balance of buying and selling at that particular time (Ripple).
• The secondary movement covers a period ranging from days to
weeks, averaging probably between six to eight weeks (Wave).
• The third move is the great swing covering anything from
months to years, averaging between 6 to 48 months. (Tide).
H. Dow Theory
Bull markets
Bear markets
Ranging Markets
I. Dow Theory
I. Trends
What if the series of higher Highs and higher Lows is first broken by a
lower Low? There are two possible interpretations - see Large
Corrections.
Bear Trends - Each successive rally fails to penetrate the high point
of the previous rally. Each decline terminates at a lower point than the
preceding decline.
A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend: when a rally ends with a
lower peak and then retreats below the previous low. The end of a
bear trend is identical to the start of a bull trend. What if the series of
lower Highs and lower Lows is first broken by a higher High? This is a
gray area - see Large Corrections.
J. Dow Theory
I. Large Corrections
A large correction occurs when price falls below the previous low
(during a bull trend where price rises above the previous high (in a
bear trend).
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 84
Some purists argue that a trend ends if the sequence of higher highs
and higher lows is broken. Others argue that a bear trend has not
started until there is a lower High and Low nor has a bull trend started
until there is a higher Low and High.
• A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high
• A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low,
• A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa).
Standard bar charts are commonly used to convey price activity into
an easily readable chart. Usually four elements make up a bar chart,
the Open, High, Low, and Close for the trading session/time period. A
price bar can represent any time frame the user wishes, from 1 minute
to 1 month. The total vertical length/height of the bar represents the
entire trading range for the period. The top of the bar represents the
highest price of the period, and the bottom of the bar represents the
lowest price of the period. The Open is represented by a small dash to
the left of the bar, and the Close for the session is a small dash to the
right of the bar. Below is a standard bar chart example.
You may be asking yourself, "If I can already use bar charts to view
prices, then why do I need another type of chart?"
The answer to this question may not seem obvious, but after going
through the following candlestick chart explanations and examples,
you will surely see value in the different perspective candlesticks bring
to the table. In my opinion, they are much more visually appealing,
and convey the price information in a quicker, easier manner.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 86
The candlesticks themselves and the formations they shape were give
colorful names by the Japanese traders. Due in part to the military
environment of the Japanese feudal system during this era, candlestick
formations developed names such as "counter attack lines" and the
"advancing three soldiers". Just as skill, strategy, and psychology are
important in battle, so too are they important elements when in the
midst of trading battle.
( 3a )
(3b)
The long, dark, filled-in real bodies represent a weak (bearish) close
( 3a ), while a long open, light-colored real body represents a strong
(bullish) close ( 3b ). It is important to note that Japanese candlestick
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 89
analysts traditionally view the open and closing prices as the most
critical of the day. At a glance, notice how much easier it is with
candlesticks to determine if the closing price was higher or lower than
the opening price.
Just as many traders look to bar charts for double tops and bottoms,
head-and-shoulders, and technical indicators for reversal signals, so
too can candlestick formations be looked upon for the same purpose. A
reversal does not always mean that the current uptrend/downtrend will
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 92
reverse direction, but merely that the current direction may end. The
market may then decide to drift sideways. Candlestick reversal
patterns must be viewed within the context of prior activity to be
effective. In fact, identical candlesticks may have different meanings
depending on where they occur within the context of prior trends and
formations.
lower, under the low of the prior black day. Then, prices
close above the 50% point of the prior day's black real
body.
Stars
• Morning Star
• Evening Star
• Doji Star
• Shooting Star (Inverted Hammer)
is a white real body that moves well into the first period's black
real body. This is similar to an island pattern on standard bar
charts.
• E
v
e
ning Star -- a bearish top reversal pattern and counterpart to
the Morning Star. Three candlesticks compose the evening star,
the first being long and white. The second forms a star, followed
by the third, which has a black real body that moves sharply into
the first white candlestick.
body. If the candlestick after the Doji star is black and gapped
lower, the bullishness of the Doji is invalidated.
• Shooting Star -- a small real body near the lower end of the
trading range, with a long upper shadow. The color of the body is
not critical. Not usually considered a major reversal sign, only a
warning.
END OF CHAPTER V
The following five sectors were considered for the purpose of study
during the course of our project.
• Telecom
• Steel
• Cement
• Pharma
• Software
The following stocks and their trends in the last one year (2004)
were studied in the course of the project.
• Bharti Televentures
• SAIL
• ACC
• Wockhardt
• Reliance
Telecom sector
Introduction
2004 has been a momentous year for the Indian telecom sector.
Explosive growth rate in the mobile telephony segment was almost
counterbalanced by rapidly falling profitability due to regulatory
pressures and pressure on tariffs. Increasing consolidation activity was
also prominent throughout the year. The growth in the industry was
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 102
The most important event of the year for the domestic telecom
industry was the introduction of unified licensing regime (ULR). The
main aim of this regime was to simply the licensing procedure and
granting a unified license that enables services providers to provide all
kinds of telecom services covering various geographical areas using
any technology. Another big event in relation to the sector was the
raising of FDI limits from 49% to 74%.
The growth in the industry was clearly reflected in the way major
telecom players performed on the stock markets. Against the Sensex
gains of 14%, the telecom index grew by an almost double 27% during
2004. The table below shows that Bharti Tele led the pack with a YoY
gain of 99%. Strong performance of the stock, especially during the
second-half of the year, mirrored the robust financial performance of
the company. This growth was aided by a continued strong addition to
the subscriber base. At the end of September 2004, Bharti had a base
of 8.7m mobile subscribers, which was 20% of the Indian cellular
(GSM+CDMA) market. This rapid addition to the base more than
compensated for the pressure on ARPUs (average revenue per user) as
the company improved upon its operating margins and profitability.
26-Dec- 27-Dec- %
03 04 Change
BHARTI TELE 106 212 99.0%
VSNL 155 234 50.4%
TATA TESERV 23 34 47.2%
(MAH)
MTNL 135 157 16.8%
ITI LTD 25 28 13.1%
Apart from the gainers as mentioned above, there were just a couple
of losers from the telecom sector in 2004 – HFCL (17%) and Krone
Communications (21%).
Expectation in 2005
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 104
Bharti Televentures
Performance Summary
Company’s Profile
Performance in 3QFY05
Segment-wise performance…
Despite the strong growth in the topline, Bharti has reported a 180
basis points narrowing of its operating margins for 3QFY05. This has
been mainly a result of a 170 basis points increase in access and
interconnection charges. On the contrary, expenses under other major
heads like employee costs and license fee have declined in the
quarter. With the revised ADC (access deficit charge) guidelines, which
are expected to reduce burden on mobile services providers by
reducing their payment to BSNL and MTNL, we expect the pressure on
account of interconnect charges is likely to decline for Bharti going
forward.
Expectation
BHARTI TELEVENTURES
Mar 11, 2005
Live BSE Quotes
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 225.15 229.90 (Rs)
225.45 221.00
% Volume Value (Rs) 52-
Change 464,502 104,225,904 Week
1.03 H/L
240.70
/
115.00
Valuation
EPS (Rs)* P/E Ratio (x) Market Cap (Rs P/BV (x)
7.05 31.99 m) 9.87
417,842.27
*Trailing 12 months earnings | BSE Sensex | S&P
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 110
Steel
Introduction
It was yet another year of gains for investors in the stock markets with
the benchmark index – Sensex – having notched gains of about 14%
during 2004. Similar to last year, practically all the sectors (barring
FMCG this time) ended the year with significant gains, as reflected by
their respective indices. The metals index (steel & aluminum) has also
ended the year in the positive by registering gains of about 27%
(calculated on a simple average basis of the stocks in the tables below,
as the BSE Metals index was launched only in 2HCY04). We take a look
at what led the continued optimism amongst investors towards the
sector after the spectacular performance in 2004 and what is in store
for 2005.
As mentioned above, the metals index has risen by about 27% during
the year. However, if we consider the steel and aluminum sectors in
isolation, the steel index has registered an impressive growth of about
40% while the aluminum sector has closed the year on a negative note
with about 2% fall, consequently affecting the overall performance of
the metals index.
not yielded much result as yet, which has led to the extension of the
steel cycle and further strengthening the aluminum cycle.
The primary reason for the steel sector to hit the headlines time and
again in 2004 revolved around rising steel prices. While steel
manufacturers cited helplessness in the face of surging raw material
prices like that of coke, iron ore and melting scrap, which forced them
to pass on the same to consumers, there was significant opposition by
steel user industries including auto and construction citing significant
pressure on their margins.
Expectation in 2005
As far as the steel sector is concerned, we must admit that the steel
cycle has extended beyond our expectation as China continues to
register strong growth rates despite efforts by its authorities to cool
down the economy. However, we continue to remain apprehensive on
the steel sector for the medium-term owing to various reasons. We
believe that the steel cycle has peaked and the various domestic and
global capacity expansion plans that are taking shape would put
pressure on steel prices. Indian steel majors have already announced
aggressive capacity expansion plans in India. This means that any
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 113
SAIL
Performance summary
% %
Profit after Tax/(Loss) 7,380 15,142 105.2 14,978 41,390 176.3%
%
Net profit margin (%) 12.5% 19.5% 9.8% 21.0%
No. of Shares (m) 4,130 4,130 4,130 4,130
Diluted earnings per 7.1 14.7 4.8 13.4
share*
Price to earnings ratio 4.0 4.4
(x)
(* annualized)
Company profile
Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL), the domestic public sector steel
behemoth, is India’s largest steel producer and is the world’s 15th
largest. The company commands almost 1/3rd of the domestic market
share with its 13 MTPA capacity. It operates 4 integrated steel plants
and 2 specialty steel plants. After bleeding at the net profit level
during the period FY99 to FY03 owing to an unfavorable steel cycle,
the company turned around in FY04 and has continued its
commendable performance into 9mFY05. Further, going forward, the
company has embarked on a massive expansion plan (split into two
phases), which will take its steel production capacity to 20 MTPA by
FY12.
profits registered a 253% rise at the PBT level. However, the bottom-
line growth was curtailed to 105% (though still splendid) owing to a
massive rise in tax provisioning. However, in what could be termed as
a major landmark in the overall turnaround process of SAIL, the board
for the first time since 1997-98 has announced an interim dividend of
15% on paid-up.
SAIL
Mar 11, 2005
Live BSE Quotes
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 66.00 66.40 (Rs)
65.85 64.65
% Volume Value (Rs) 52-
Change 5,441,256 356,860,704 Week
2.09 H/L
67.65
/
20.00
2005
(Close)
Software
Introduction
The year 2004 marked the continuity in prospects for the Indian
software sector with billing rates stabilizing (at least for Tier-1
companies) and volume expanding at ‘faster than earlier’ pace.
However, the year also led the management of Indian software
companies chew on risks on the outsourcing front in wake of the US
presidential elections held in November. While the return of Mr. Bush
Junior brought some respite for these companies as the year drew to a
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 118
close, it was not before a lot of apprehensions were raised whether the
backlash would affect Indian software companies.
2004 also saw the listing of TCS, Asia’s largest software services
exporter onto the Indian bourses. The issue received a wide response
and the stock was listed at the upper end of the issue price. Another
event to have marked 2004 was the crossing of US$ 1 bn revenue
mark by two Indian tech majors – Infosys and Wipro. While size of
these three Indian software players are still miniscule as compared to
global technology majors, the crossover of the US$ 1 bn revenue mark
definitely marks their emergence into the global technology domain
where balance sheet size plays a vital role in garnering large-scale
contracts and growing businesses rapidly.
A look at the tables of key gainers below indicates that this year has
belonged to the leading players in the industry, be it from the end-to-
end segment (Infosys and Wipro) or from the focused and niche
categories (Hexaware and Kale Consultants). Gains, specifically, in
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 119
stocks of large players like Infosys and Wipro were due to belief that
these would be the biggest beneficiaries of the increased outsourcing
momentum. These players are consistently building up their employee
bases, investing consistently in building up infrastructure
(development centres, marketing and distribution network), and this is
all in the anticipation that they would get enough work to justify their
investments. However, we believe that if that fails to fructify, or that if
these companies fail to garner adequate business in line with their
expectations, times might come out to be tough.
26-Dec- 27-Dec- %
03 04 Change
INFOSYS 1,348 2,055 52.5%
HEXAWARE TECH 407 598 47.0%
WIPRO 571 753 31.9%
KALE 59 75 27.1%
CONSULTANTS
RAMCO SYSTEMS 366 462 26.3%
Companies that have had a poor track record and that were named in
the stock markets scam of 2000, lost out considerably in 2004. This is
a good sign considering the historical performance when such stocks
rallied along with the better players from the sector. As a matter of
fact, the major loser in the calendar year 2003 was Silverline (down
71%) followed by Pentasoft (down 60%).
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 120
26-Dec- 27-Dec- %
03 04 Change
SSI LTD 192 44 -77.1%
PENTASOFT 8 3 -61.2%
TECH
VISUALSOFT 258 128 -50.4%
DSQ SOFTWARE 17 9 -48.3%
NIIT 266 178 -33.2%
Expectation in 2005
MASTEK
Mar 11, 2005
Live BSE Quotes
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 387.80 394.70 (Rs)
381.70 380.00
% Volume Value (Rs) 52-
Change 82,252 31,762,100 Week
-1.22 H/L
408.40
/
189.00
Valuation
EPS (Rs)* P/E Ratio (x) Market Cap (Rs P/BV (x)
25.65 14.88 m) 4.13
5,298.00
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 122
Pharma
Introduction
The year 2004 was another ‘special’ year for the stock market
participants, as the markets see-sawed towards their all time high
levels. While almost all the sectors participated in the bull-run, Pharma
stocks were among the leaders, again outperforming the broader
indices after the strong performance in 2003. Against 14% gains for
the Sensex, the Pharma index gained 20% during the year.
The year started well for the industry with robust growth witnessed
during the first quarter. A major growth driver for the industry once
again was new products introduction as companies tried their hands
out on various kinds of products in order to capture largest market
share before the new patent regime comes into picture.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 123
The growth in the domestic market was sluggish while revenues from
international markets grew at a rapid pace for Indian companies.
According to the statistics of Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers,
export revenues from the pharmaceutical sector are likely to grow at a
CAGR of 30% over the next three years (including FY05). The year saw
smaller companies like Matrix labs and Divi’s Labs made their way
further into exports markets.
MNC pharma companies were the biggest gainers during 2004 with
Aventis emerging the leader. There were two reasons for this out-
performance by Aventis. While the performance of the company was
very good on profitability front, the markets have also taken a re-look
at the valuations. Somewhat similar was the case with other major
MNC pharma companies like Glaxo and Novartis. While Novartis saw a
rise in its stock price after the announcement by the company that it
will try to reach out into a larger part of India. The company has plans
to introduce new drugs once the product patent comes into force.
26-Dec- 27-Dec- %
03 04 Change
Aventis 682 1,370 100.9%
Nicholas 166 292 76.4%
Piramal
Novartis 432 682 58.1%
Abbott 495 736 48.7%
Wockhardt 259 356 37.6%
Apart from the MNC pharma companies, Nicholas Piramal was amongst
the major gainers in the sector. Two important events that marked the
year for Nicholas Piramal were the contract manufacturing business
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 124
26-Dec- 27-Dec- %
03 04 Change
Dr 1,423 855 -39.9%
Reddy's
Biocon 484 497 2.6%
Ranbaxy 1,099 1,241 13.0%
Cipla 257 308 19.5%
Pfizer 557 698 25.3%
Glaxo 595 776 30.4%
Expectation in 2005
The year 2004 was an eventful year with new companies entering into
the bandwagon for pharma exports. However, 2005 is likely to be ‘the’
year of execution for most of the companies. As far as the domestic
markets are concerned, the patent ordinance will definitely instill
confidence among players in the industry. However, we may not see a
sudden jump in revenues and profits of MNC companies as they may
approach new product launches with caution.
Wockhardt
Performance
%
Profit after tax/(loss) 503 632 25.6% 1,42 2,135 49.7%
6
Net profit margin (%) 17.7% 18.4% 15.1 17.2
% %
No. of shares (m) 72.6 109.0 72.6 109.0
Diluted earnings per share 13.1 19.6
(Rs)*
P/E ratio (x) 19.2
(* annualized)
Company Profile
Performance in CY04:
Europe potion: Though European growth has slowed down post the
acquisition spurt, the region still clocked a healthy 29% revenue
growth. Just to put things in perspective, the revenues from European
business in June quarter last year were Rs 333 m, while the revenues
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 128
Home score: The sales in the domestic market were up 10% during
the quarter and over 13% in CY04. The field force re-structuring in the
domestic market, as well as buoyancy in the lifestyle segment
(biotechnology, Nephrology, Diabetology) has helped company beat
the industry growth rate. The 30 power brands of the company, which
constitute 80% of the domestic revenue, grew by 15% in CY04. Also,
the revenues from its biotech portfolio grew by 81% YoY during CY04.
Wepox (Erythropoeitin) is growing at 47% plus and Wosulin, which has
completed one year of its launch, increased its market share to about
6%-7% in domestic insulin market.
Geographical Mix…
Margin story: The operating profit grew faster than the revenues.
The basic reason for this is the increased contribution from the
European markets, where margins are higher, as also the benefits of
restructuring. Increased contribution from the high margin
formulations business has also expanded operating margins. However,
this margin profile is likely to be affected once competition picks up in
the European markets. Also, company's recent entry into the US
market on its own will affect the margins, as the cost of establishing
sales and marketing network will take its toll, at least in the near term.
Business Mix…
The company has achieved robust growth on the back of its inorganic
strategy over the past few quarters. Apart from this, changing
geographical mix and streamlining of operations has helped
Wockhardt to maintain healthy margins over the last few quarters.
Expectations
WOCKHARDT (WOCK)
Mar 11, 2005
Live BSE Quotes
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 377.70 380.00 (Rs)
373.85 371.05
% Volume Value 52-
Change 22,803 (Rs) Week
0.38 8,609,900 H/L
391.50
/
236.25
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 377.05 384.00 (Rs)
375.30 373.00
% Volume Value (Rs) 52-
Change 61,904 23,429,300 Week
0.29 H/L
405.90
/
224.65
Valuation
EPS (Rs)* P/E Ratio (x) Market Cap (Rs P/BV (x)
19.10 19.57 m) 8.59
40,674.88
ACC
A.C.C. (ACC)
Mar 11, 2005
Live BSE Quotes
(Close)
Price Open (Rs) High (Rs) Low
(Rs) 370.00 372.30 (Rs)
366.45 365.60
% Volume Value (Rs) 52-
Change 219,280 80,899,104 Week
-0.72 H/L
385.00
/
218.00
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 133
Valuation
EPS (Rs)* P/E Ratio (x) Market Cap (Rs P/BV (x)
17.80 20.59 m) 4.95
65,316.05
*Trailing 12 months earnings | BSE Sensex |
S&P CNX Nifty
The two stocks that performed really well in the bourses during the
year 2004 were the stocks of SAIL & Task pharma. The banking stock
SBI and the pharma stock Ranbaxy were the moderate performers in
the same year. The worst performing stock was that of the BPL
because of the ongoing feud in the family. After the budget
announcement by the finance minister the Sensex fell drastically
because of the sheer panic due to the constant policy differences
between the ruling government and the left parties (introduction of the
STT was also responsible of the downward trend of the index).
However it has bounced back and has hit a record high of 6680 in the
beginning of the year 2005.
.
SAIL will continue to perform well in the year 2005 due to the rising
domestic as well as foreign demand for steel. Ranbaxy too has a
positive year ahead with India moving into the product patent regime.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 134
The stock price will depend on the company’s ability to come out with
newer drugs since they have invested heavily in the R & D.Task
pharma continues to perform well in the year 2005. The future of the
BPL stock is unpredictable unless the ongoing family feud is resolved.
Bharti Televentures is another company whose stock has really
performed well in the year 2004.This is mainly because of their
increasing revenues from their landline connections, broadband
facilities and their licenses to offer cellular services in the newer circles
such as J & K. Moreover they also have the first mover advantage in
the telecom sector. The outsourcing of their complete network
management to IBM and their focus on customer service has definitely
contributed to the upward movement of the stock.
General questions
The FIIs are planning to invest heavily in India in the near future.
Lots of money is waiting outside India in the hands of the FIIs to be
invested in the Indian market. The investment that these FIIs make
in India is very miniscule compared to the total size of their holding.
Energy sector
1. The ongoing family feud had a very little impact on the performance
of the stock mainly because Reliance is such a large holding and a
highly trusted and stable brand in the eyes of the investors.
3. The approval of the Iran gas pipeline is a major boost for the
company. But unless the project is executed nothing can be predicted
about its impact on the company’s stok.
Oil sector as a whole was a laggard one in the year 2004.The share
price of oil companies HPCL & BPCL were badly affected owing to the
divestment of these two PSUs. The share prices of these two
companies are slowly bouncing back this year.
Cement sector
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 136
2. The top performer in the cement sector in the year 2004 was the
Grasim cements.
IT sector
1. With the IT giants like Infosys and Wipro joining the billion
dollar club, the small companies are really facing a uncertain
future. The smaller companies like Polaris, NIIT etc are losing
their clients to their bigger competitors. The clients are
turning to the bigger IT companies because of their larger size
and their capability to offer everything under one roof.
Barring a few companies like Mphasis BFL most of the small
companies are facing difficult challenges to survive which is
adversely affecting their stock prices in a big way.
Pharma sector
1. With India moving into the product patent regime the pharma
sector is bound to have a bright future. Indian pharma giants like
Ranbaxy, Cipla have an established presence in the North American
and European markets and have a very bright year ahead. Also
these companies have invested heavily in their R & D facilities
which will definitely give them a good ROI in the near future. The
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 137
2. Exports are bound to rise in the near future though not as much
as 30% but considerably little less. However in the long run the
Indian Pharma sector will definitely boom and has a very positive
2005 ahead.
3. The entry of small companies will not affect the larger ones in a
big way because in the Pharma sector there is space for everyone.
The big giants can always fall back on their superior R & D facilities
to come out with newer drugs compared to the smaller companies.
END OF CHAPTER VI
STOCK MARKET TRENDS IN INDIA 138