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Oracle Advisor Webcast

Demantra Log Parser and Data Analysis
Performance Impact
Jeff Goulette
Senior Principal Technical Support Engineer
April 6, 2016
Safe Harbor Statement

The following is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for
information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a
commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon
in making purchasing decisions. The development, release, and timing of any features or
functionality described for Oracles products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.
Oracle Advisor Webcast

Demantra Log Parser and Data Analysis
Performance Impact
Jeff Goulette
Senior Principal Technical Support Engineer
April 6, 2016
Objectives
Review Log Parser Output
Proport Behavior
Prediction Status
General Debugging
Agenda
Log Parser
Prediction Status
Proport Behavior
Any update statements in this presentation are meant to be executed in a NON PRODUCTION system.
Demonstration
Demantra Demand Planning Log File Parser (Doc ID 2053982.1)
Termonology
hist_glob_prop -- Specifies the maximum number of base time buckets to use in calculating glob_prop, the running average demand
for any given item-location combination.
def_delta -- Specifies the default value for the delta field in the mdp_matrix table. If delta equals null for a given combination, the
system uses the value of this parameter instead. In turn, the delta field specifies the month-to-month smoothing of the weekly
proportions.
proport_missing -- Specifies what value to use for dates with null sales (zero or average).
proport_threshold -- Specifies the number of distinct months needed to compute P1, ... P12 in the usual way.
proport_spread -- Specifies what value to use for any month that has null data.
last_date -- Last date of actual sales, to be used by the Analytical Engine and the proport mechanism. No dates after this are used
towards the forecast or the proport calculation.
quantity_form -- Expression that the Analytical Engine uses to select the historical demand from the sales_data table; the result of
this expression is the data that the engine uses as input. The default expression transforms negative values to zero and should be
modified if business needs require negative demand.
mature_age -- Controls the mature_date, which is calculated backwards from the current date using the mature_age parameter. A
combination is young (rather than active) if it does not have any non-zero sales data for dates on or before the mature_date.
dying_time -- If no sales occurred during the length of time specified by dying_time, the combination will be marked as dead (0
forecast will be issued).
10
Stored Procedure Proport high level overview Step 1

A. It analyzes every item/location combination in the mdp_matrix table in conjunction with sales order data in
order to update the column prediction_status with valid values:
1 = Mature - picked up by the forecast engine - there is a significant amount of sales order history for this
item/location combination
97 = manually generated by the user to tell the forecast engine to ignore this particular item/location combination
by changing the Do Forecast (Do_Fore) for this item/location from
1 (Include this in the forecast engine calculation)
to 2 (Do not do forecast for this particular item/location).
98 - Young - there is very little sales order history so while the combination will not be dead the engine will not try
to generate a forecast. Users should make sure there is an override value manually entered until it turns mature.
99 - Dead - This item/location combination will be ignored by the Forecast engine due to the fact that there have
not been any sales orders for a certain amount of time which is determined by the Dying Time System parameter
(eg - If the dying_time parameter is set to 26 weeks and there have been no sales order history for the past 26 weeks, this will
be an indication where Proport would input this value as the prediction_status for this item/location combination
11
Stored Procedure Proport high level overview Step 2

B. It generates and inputs values into columns P1 through P12 for every item/location combination in the
mdp_matrix table in case the Forecasting Engine cannot calculate a forecast at the lowest level specified for
item/location in your environment (ie your lowest level hierarchy for item/location combinations).
If the forecast engine can generate a forecast for your lowest level item/location combination, it will ignore the P1 P12 values as they are not needed.
If it cannot calculate a forecast at the lowest level item/location, then it will begin to move up the item/location
hierarchy Forecast Tree until it can calculate the forecast.
In this case it is still necessary to generate the forecast at the lowest level item/location combination, so after
generating the forecast at the higher hierarchy level, it will use the values (like allocated percentage) in columns P1
through P12 to allocate forecast demand and create the forecast down at the lowest level item/location
combination.
These P values change every week as demand history changes for an individual combination.
(Note that this could change to daily or monthly depending on how the setup was performed for each customer)
12
Forecast Rows
What creates the forecast rows in the future is the Insert_Units procedure that runs as part of the
analytical forecast engine run.
The filter, simplified, that this procedure uses to analyze each combination is:
SELECT DISTINCT item_id, location_id
FROM mdp_matrix m
WHERE prediction_status <> 99
AND do_fore <> 0
AND level_id > 0
Ensure those combinations meet the following rules in the mdp_matrix table:
prediction_status <>99 (99 = Dead Address from lack of recent sales)
do_fore <> 0 (0 = User told the system not to forecast this combination anymore)
level_id > 0 (0 = internal flag set by engine)
If the combinations in question do not meet all of the above criteria, that is the reason the forecast buckets
are not generated by the latest engine run.
13
Proport and do_fore

When DO_FORE is set as 0 it forces PROPORT to set the prediction status as 99.
INSERT_UNITS also ignores DO_FORE 0 matrix rows.
In the EP_LOAD, MDP_ADD procedure, process, the DO_FORE column is not set directly for new matrix rows and
would be set according to the column default.
The DO_FORE column default should be 1.
In MDP_ADD, DO_FORE is NOT updated on existing rows.
So reloading combinations will not re-set DO_FORE.
DO_FORE is set to 0 either manually or via a worksheet update.
The solution is to set DO_FORE = 1 and PROP_CHANGES = 1 manually then re-run PROPORT.
More on this in the next slide
14
Prop_changes Column
When you change the column prop_changes from 0 to 1 for item location combinations in the
mdp_matrix table, and you run the proport procedure it will
Review those item location combinations to check and see if their prediction_status is accurate.
If it is not accurate it will

Make the appropriate change to the prediction_status for item location combinations as applicable.
Once this is done, all the item location combinations should have an accurate prediction_status
Then the batch analytical engine can be run again to pick up item location combinations with prediction_status =
1 and generate the future forecast.
15
Calculating the Monthly Proportions

After calculating the rolling average demand for each combination, Demantra calculates the average demand per
day (P1, P2, ..., P12) averaged over a month's time.
This calculation consists of three steps:
1. Calculating the average daily demand for each month of the year.
2. Adjusting the level of these averages to account for any overall trend. This calculation uses the rolling average
demand.
3. Smoothing these averages to account for month-to-month variations. This calculation also uses the rolling average
demand.
Note: In weekly and daily systems, the proport mechanism scales the monthly proportions (P1, ..., P12) by dividing
by the number of days in the month, as appropriate.
Smoothing Out Variations
Depending on your business, you may want to smooth out the month-to-month variations. The delta field in
mdp_matrix specifies a weight for a given item-location combination. Demantra uses this weight to even out these
variations as in the following example:
P1 = glob_prop * delta + (old P1) * (1 - delta)
16
Prediction_status and do_fore

Note that on the front end of the application the end users can view the prediction_status and do_fore
flag by adding the following two levels to the worksheet that they are running:
Forecast System Status - this will tell the prediction status of the combination
A value of Good for Forecast (1), Young Address (98), or Zero Forecast (97) will satisfy the first rule for Insert_Units
Forecast User Status - this will tell the user if the combination was turned off
A value of Do Forecast (1) or Do Zero Forecast (2) will satisfy the second rule for Insert Units
If these levels are not available to the users in the Demantra tool
The system administrator will need to turn them to be enabled. To do this go to Business Modeler --> Components -->
Create/Open Component. After double
Clicking on the component then go to the Levels screen, scroll down and find the two levels in question,
right click on them and choose Full Control.
After saving it then the web server will need to be restarted for the changes to appear to the end users.
17
Mature_age
When does a young item become live based on mature age setting ?
When does a young item become dead based on mature age setting ?
Each combination is either young, live, or dead, depending on the relative age of its sales data.
Demantra uses two cutoff dates to determine the age of a combination:
The dying date is controlled by the dying_time parameter, and the mature date is controlled by the mature_age
parameter. Both parameters are global.
Demantra automatically uses these cutoff dates as follows:

If there are no sales for the combination after the dying date, the combination is considered dead.
If there are no sales for the combination before the mature date, the combination is considered young.
Otherwise, the combination is live or active.
18
Mature_age
High forecast for less history by Analytical engine
1. If you want to change the HistoryLength, you will find it in System parameters --> Engine --> Time tab.
2. If your engine is not generating forecast for a combination which has only 4 weeks of history, then please check
mature_age parameter in proport tab of system parameter.
I have checked the HistoryLength and it is 104.00.
And value for mature_age is 8.00
You should have sales between week 8 and week 104 in order to have the combination as active and engine to
generate forecast for it.
If all your sales are older then 104 weeks, your combination is consider dead, so engine will not generate forecast
for it.
If you have sales only in the latest 8 weeks, your combination is young.
19
Proportional reference series

We have an editable series which is proportional.
We have two items under higher item level ( Mktg Family).
We have taken used sales history as proportional reference series
Both the items do not have any history because one item is just released(NPI) and another one is end of
life.
Currently both the items receive the equal share when the data is entered at the higher level because
the proportional reference series is 0 for both the items as there is no sales history for both of them.
We do not want the EOL item to receive any of the Value
How Can we make it happen?
We tried is to make the proportional series null, in the server expression we have used decode
statement to get Null value for End of life items) for End of Life item
But still the End of Life l item receives an amount when we enter the data at the MKTG family level.
20
Proportional reference series

Could you please check what is the glop_prop values for the corresponding combinations?
This is calculated by proport procedure. As per Why does Proport Delivers an Unequal Split On Members with Zero
Original Values? (Doc ID 465362.1)
The order of splitting is as follows:
1) Use the proportion by series, unless all instances are 0 or null (in the DB, not what customer sees)
2) If they are zero or null Use matrix glob_prop proportions, unless all glob_props are 0 or null
In this case, the demand history (which affects glob_prop) for these combinations are driving the percentage of splits
3) use equal split

All combinations below the aggregated level will get an equal split
In addition, depending of the prediction_status for the corresponding combinations, if the prediction_status = 99,
you can also adjust update_dead_comb parameter.
If this parameter is set to 1, then all combinations, even those with a prediction_status of 99 (dead), will be
updated;
- If this parameter is set to 0, then any combinations with a status of 99 that have historical values will be updated.
- If this parameter is set to 2, then any combinations with a status of 99 will not be updated.
21
The difference for aggri_98, aggri_99 and do_aggri

What is the difference for mdp_matrix columns
aggri_98
aggri_99
do_aggri
From the implementation guide all are used to specify whether to perform aggregation on this item-location
combination.
If all are used for determine aggregation, which will take first priority
do_aggri, aggri_98, aggri_99 work in conjunction with prediction_status in Demantra.
If prediction_status is set to 1 by proport, do_aggri is considered
if prediction_status is set to 98 by proport, aggri_98 is considered
if prediction_status is set to 99 by proport, aggri_99 is considered
22
dying_time
Issue caused by the following setup: hist_glob_prop is lower then dying_time. If dying_time is bigger then
hist_glob_prop and all sales history is between hist_glob_prop and dying_time, the proportions are returning
NULLS.
Message: WARNING NULL proportion detected for prop # at node: #, # is a warning that there are nulls in p1- p12 parameters and this
parameters should be calculated by proport procedure.
To implement the solution, please execute the following steps:

1. Log into Business Modeler.
2. Navigate to Parameters >> System Parameters >> Engine >> Proport.
3. Check dying_time and hist_glob_prop parameters . Change the value of hist_glob_prop parameter to be bigger then the value of
dying_time.
4. Execute proport procedure:
BEGIN
UPDATE mdp_matrix
SET prop_changes = 1;
COMMIT;
proport;
END;
23
dying_time cont.
5. Check p1 - p12 for nulls and confirm there are no nulls for all non-dead combinations:
select distinct prediction_status from mdp_matrix
where p1 is NULL
or p2 is NULL
or p3 is NULL
or p4 is NULL
or p5 is NULL
or p6 is NULL
or p7 is NULL
or p8 is NULL
or p9 is NULL
or p10 is NULL
or p11 is NULL
or p12 is NULL;
prediction_status should be 99 - dead combinations.
24
dying_time cont.
Demantra is not updating the prediction status to 99 / forecast system status dead for old combinations.
Even for more periods without history that are specified with the dying_time parameter.
For example: the dying_time parameter is set to 26 periods and history of 0 has been loaded for 30 periods but the
prediction_status is still shwing '98' for 'young' combination.
Running the mdp_add procedure is not updating the status Solution
Found that HistoryLength was 0;

The number of base time buckets to consider for fit estimation and for the proport mechanism.
Must be a non-negative integer.
If equal to 0, the length of the history is set by the start_date parameter instead.
But dying_time should be less than HistoryLength
Dying time is the number of time buckets back from last date (max_sales_date)
If any sales with "QuantityForm" > 0 are found between dying date and max_sales_date then combinations are
NOT dead.
25
Dead Prediction_status
If the combination has no demand in SALES_DATA (quantity_form values), history or
forecast, and the combination is declared as 'dead' (prediction_status = '99'), all the
proportion values should have been zeroed out.
Run the following select statement adding the associated location_ids:
select prop_changes,
prediction_status,
ITEM_ID,
LOCATION_ID,
do_fore,
level_id,
do_aggri,
item_node, loc_node,is_fictive
from mdp_matrix
where location_id in (<&loc_ids>)
order by item_id, location_id;
26
Combinations with Negative Demand

Identify which combinations have a negative demand by doing a search on the
sales_data table for values that are < 0
For if example, the quantity_form expression is
nvl(pseudo_sale,actual_quantity)*(1 + nvl(demand_fact,0))
Then make sure that no values in the sales_data columns

pseudo_sale
actual_quantity and/or demand_fact
Are < 0
27
Missing
1. Check if there are combinations in SALES_DATA that do not exist in MDP_MATRIX using the SQL below:
select count(1) from mdp_matrix where (item_id,location_id) not in (select distinct item_id,location_id from sales_data)
and (prediction_status=1 or (prediction_status=98 and aggri_98=1) or (prediction_status=99 and aggri_99=1))
and item_id <> 0;
2. If the query in step 1 gives any record count that is not 0 then do the following steps.
3. Correct the entries in MDP_MATRIX by setting the invalid combinations to dead combinations.
To do this you reset all of the prediction statuses to 'do not forecast' and then let proport make sure that
only truly good for forecast combinations are set to prediction_status = 1.
Run the SQL statements below
update mdp_matrix set prediction_status = 99, prop_changes=1;
commit;
4. Run your organization's version of proport() to set the correct combinations with prediction_status of 1.
5. Please note that if you have customizations that set prediction_status or has a customized criteria for
determining the combinations that should have a forecast, you will need to run that process after steps 1 - 4
are completed.
28
Prediction_Status
Controls how the Analytical Engine uses this combination. Each combination has one of the following
prediction status values:
96 (No Forecast) This status means that the Analytical Engine will completely ignore this combination.
97 (Create Zero Forecast) --- A user has set do_fore equal to 2 manually.
This status means that the Analytical Engine will insert a zero forecast for this combination but otherwise
ignore it.
98 (Young) Sales for this combination are too new to be used for prediction.
99 (Dead) Sales for this combination are not recent enough to be used for prediction.
1 (Live or Active)Neither young nor dead.
The Analytical Engine ignores any young or dead combinations, except when it is
necessary to aggregate
29
MDP_MATRIX
1) select count(*), do_fore, prediction_status from mdp_matrix group by do_fore,prediction_status;
This will give us an overview of how many combinations have a prediction_status = 1, good for forecast). This will also ensure that
we do not have any invalid combinations as there should be no null values in either/both columns. Any null values should be set to
do_fore = 1 and prediction_status = 1)
2) update mdp_matrix set prediction_status = 99, prop_changes=1;

commit;
exec proport;
This will reset all of the prediction statuses to 'do not forecast' and then let proport make sure that only truly good for forecast
combinations are set to prediction_status = 1
3) select count(*), do_fore, prediction_status group by do_fore,prediction_status;

Re-run SQL #1 again to see if the count has changed and make sure that at least some combinations are good for forecast, indicating
sufficient sales_data for the engine to process. If there are not any set to prediction_status = 1, then you need to evaluate why
there is no sales_data
30
MDP_MATRIX - Investigate
The following SQL will tell you
How many active combinations are in mdp_matrix
prediction_status = 1 and do_fore= 1
How many Young
prediction_status = 98 and do_fore= 1
Dead combinations are part of the aggregated sales history, do_aggri = 1 and aggri_98/aggri_99 = 1
Used by the Engine in order to create a forecast
prediction_status= 99 and do_fore= 1
Interesting exercise:
Determine all combinations then
Determine how many are dead
31
MDP_MATRIX - ACTIVE COMBINATIONS and ENGINE PERFORMANCE

Introducing a useful SQL
Whenever encountering Engine performance issues and/or OutOfMemory errors the
following SQL needs to be run:
Select count(*),
prediction_status,
do_fore,
do_aggri,
aggri_98,
aggri_99,
level_id
from mdp_matrix
Group by prediction_status, do_fore, do_aggri, aggri_98, aggri_99, level_id;
32
MDP_MATRIX
COUNT(*)
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_FORE
DO_AGGRI
AGGRI_98
AGGRI_99
LEVEL_ID
99
169
99
150000
34
99
99
98
44
98
99
2086
99
1101
99
50000
Which are dead?

Which are Young
33
MDP_MATRIX
COUNT(*)
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_FORE
DO_AGGRI
AGGRI_98
AGGRI_99
LEVEL_ID
99
169
99
150000
34
99
99
98
44
98
99
2086
99
1101
99
50000
Prediction_status = 1 is active
34
MDP_MATRIX
COUNT(*)
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_FORE
DO_AGGRI
AGGRI_98
AGGRI_99
LEVEL_ID
99
Dead
169
99
Dead
150000
34
99
99
98
Young
44
98
Young
99
2086
99
Dead
1101
99
Dead
50000
Dead
The above SQL output shows 200k active combinations plus another 3444 Young (98) and Dead (99) combinations to be used in
aggregation.
do_fore=0, do not forecast
do_fore=1, forecast-default
do_fore=2, zero forecast
35
Prediction_Status
Controls how the Analytical Engine uses this combination.
Each combination has one of the following prediction status values:
96 (No Forecast) This status means that the Analytical Engine will completely ignore this combination.
97 (Create Zero Forecast) A user has set do_fore equal to 2 manually. This status means that the Analytical Engine will
insert a
Zero forecast for this combination but otherwise ignore it
98 (Young) Sales for this combination are too new to be used for prediction.
99 (Dead) Sales for this combination are not recent enough to be used for prediction.
1 (Live or Active)Neither young nor dead.
36
MDP_MATRIX Review
My Data Combinations do not have do_fore = 1 or prediction_status = 1
To resolve we are submitting an update to repair
Engine does not directly look at do_forecast
It references the prediction_status series
When proport is run and do_forecast = 0 the results should translate to prediction_status = 99 for which the engine will
not generate a forecast
The primary method to resolve is Run proport to update prediction_status
You can ensure proport only runs on the desired combinations by setting prop_changes = 1, another hidden series based
on the do_fore series.
If do_forecast is modified you set the series connect to prop_changes = 1.
Prior to batch run, the expectation is that proport is being executed
If you are loading data, proport should run automatically
If not tied to data load you need to call the procedure or run a workflow step which calls proport for the specific
engine_profile you care about.
37
MDP_MATRIX Prediction_Status
Is_Fictive=1

Prediction_status =98 or young
Is_Fictive=0 or 2
Do_Fore=0
Prediction_status =99 or dead
N
Choice Not Available
Do_Fore=1
N
Prediction_status =97 zero fcst
Do_Fore=2
N
Dying_Time?
Mature_Age=Y
N

Prediction_status =1 or Active
38
Is_Fictive=1

Is_Fictive=0 or 2
Do_Fore=0
N
Do_Fore=1
N
Do_Fore=2
N
Dying_Time?
Mature_Age=Y
N

39
Is_Fictive=1

Is_Fictive=0 or 2
Do_Fore=0
N
Do_Fore=1
N
Do_Fore=2
N
Dying_Time?
Mature_Age=Y
N

40
Is_Fictive=1

Is_Fictive=0 or 2
Do_Fore=0
N
Do_Fore=1
N
Do_Fore=2
N
Dying_Time?
Mature_Age=Y
N

41
Debugging
Error running Proport in db_exception_log. Error in executing dynamic_proc
20003 ORA-20003: Error in PROCEDURE PROPORT_SALES line 1120
executing dynamic_proc('DYN_PROP_028165151068_93 ('01-18-2014 00:00:00','01-16-2016 00:00:00')')
What can you do to reveal additional error information?
Please manually execute DYN_PROP_028165151068_93 to get the real error .
Begin
dynamic_proc('DYN_PROP_028165151068_93 ('01-18-2014 00:00:00','01-16-2016 00:00:00')');
end;
42
Debugging
We are seeing that the level_id is not populated for these combinations we expect to see them active.
Below see prediction_status = 98.
How is the level_id populated?
Is there any correlation between level_id and Prediction_status?
DO_FORE
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_AGG
RI
IS_FICTIVE
PROP_CHANGES
LEVEL_ID
COUN T(*)
80
265
117
97
766
97
244
97
98
98
1347
43
Debugging
DO_FORE
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_AGGRI
IS_FICTIVE
PROP_CHANGES
LEVEL_ID
COUN T(*)
80
265
117
97
766
97
244
97
98
98
1347
Mature_age is the parameter which influences it

Do you have sufficient history for these items as per the mature_age setup?
You may also check the value of parameter - dying_time.
Though this setting does not affect the prediction_Status = 98, but still you may check if this is set correctly
When is_fictive is 1, prediction status is set to 98
44
Debugging
DO_FORE
PREDICTION_STATUS
DO_AGGRI
IS_FICTIVE
PROP_CHANGES
LEVEL_ID
COUN T(*)
80
265
117
97
766
97
244
97
98
98
1347
Demantra sets a flag for each combination to indicate whether that combination is real or not.
In mdp_matrix, the is_fictive flag has one of the following values:
0 - Combination is real and it has non zero sales data.
1 - Combination is fictive (not real). This combination was created via Member Management.
2 - Combination is real but all sales are zero or null.
3 - Errors occurred while loading this combination.
45
Is_Fictive=1

Is_Fictive=0 or 2
Do_Fore=0
N
Do_Fore=1
N
Do_Fore=2
N
Dying_Time?
Mature_Age=Y
N

46
Proport log/debug functionality

To debug the proport procedure you can increase the LOGGING_LEVEL (0 = no logging, 6 = maximum logging) into
LOG_IT_PARAMS table for your specific procedure .
Eg : for proport procedure:
update LOG_IT_PARAMS set LOGGING_LEVEL = 6 where PNAME = 'PROPORT';
commit;
Then execute proport procedure :
BEGIN
UPDATE mdp_matrix
SET prop_changes = 1;
COMMIT;
proport;
END;
You can check then the logs into LOG_PROPORT table.
47
proport_missing
Controls how missing dates are treated when calculating Glob_Prop parameter
(Average demand in the last hist_glob_prop time buckets)
which is moving average proportion.

VALUE '0': Missing dates are t
dying_time If no sales occurred during the length of time specified by
dying_time, the series will be marked as dead (0 forecast will be issued).
ForecastGenerationHorizon Specifies what data the engine will write to the
database. If this parameter is 0, the engine writes the forecast only. If
this parameter is a positive integer N, the engine writes the last N
historic
48
I need to set up how Demantra split the data in the lowest levels
How forecast is generated by the engine if split down to lowest levels
If you are referring to analytical engine, then it first try to calculate the forecast at lowest level and most of the combination
should succeed to generate a forecast at lowest level.
If it cannot calculate a forecast at the lowest level item/location, then it will begin to move up the item/location hierarchy
Forecast Tree until it can calculate the forecast. In this case, it is still necessary to generate the forecast at the lowest level
item/location combination, so after generating the forecast at the higher hierarchy level, it will use the values in columns P1
through P12 to allocate forecast down at the lowest level item/location combination.
The override series updated by users at an aggregated level for proportional series in the worksheets
If you are referring to override series at an aggregated level, first check if the series is proportional on some other series or not.
If it is proportional on some other series, then use the bellow sequence:
1. First will use the proportions at the lowest level of the other series, unless all the values of the other series are 0 or null (in the
DB)
2. If all the values of the other series are 0 or null (in the DB, not what customer sees), use glob_prop , unless all glob_props are 0
or null for all the combinations.
3. If also the glob_props are 0 or null for all the combinations at the lowest level, then use equal split.
49
how the delta modified the p1...p2.

Irrespective of the number of years of history Demantra is loaded with, it is always concerned about the smoothing
factor (delta - higher the value of this delta, the more we smooth the day-to-day variations) it finds in mdp_matrix.
If the engine finds the smoothing factor, then it always calculates the monthly averages based on delta and glob
prop.
As per my understanding, Before level adjustment and after level adjustment cannot work independently. They are
part of single one process.
Delta is used to smooth out the month-to-month variations.
It is used by demantra as in the following example:
P1 = glob_prop * delta + (old P1) * (1 - delta)
Be aware of a forecast that is not generated at the item level but higher up the tree where there may be a large
quantity difference between combinations that make up the level where the forecast is being generated.
In a month you have a combination with sales 5 and another combination with sales 5,000,000 and these too combinations are
combined to generate the forecast when the figures are dis-aggregated down the the item combinations the combination with
5 may get a higher forecast e.g. 500
Even so, verify the def_delta parameter that is set in the init_params_0 table.
50
Case Scenario where you can use proport to manipulate forecast horizon
Want to compare the forecast with the actuals.
Must have the engine to do a forecast from say Jan 1 2015 instead. That way they can
compare the forecast for the 1st qtr (Jan 2016 to Mar 2016) with that of the actuals.
You want the engine to ignore the history loaded for the period Jan to Mar 2016 and
use only historical data up to Dec 31 2015 to do forecast there of.
How can I achieve the same ( historical fit forecasts )
You would need to set history back to Dec 31 2015.
51
Case Scenario where you can use proport to manipulate forecast horizon
1) set parameters Max_sales_date,last_date_backup to Dec 31 2015
3) Rerun proport from sqlplus
3.1) Update mdp_matrix set prop_changes = 1;
3.2) Commit;
3.3) exec proport
4) Ensure parameters above are still set to Dec 31 2015
5) Run the engine.
After the test customer must repeat steps above to restore end of history date to
current end of history week.
52
Are there combinations?

If you have lost your way in parameter manipulation
Does the engine have any combinations to work with?
Run the following SQL checking if it returns a result set:
SELECT count (*),
M1.T_EP_P2_EP_ID
FROM MDP_MATRIX M1
WHERE (T_EP_ORG_TYPE_EP_ID=1)
AND M1.do_fore=1
AND M1.prediction_status=1
AND M1.T_EP_P2_EP_ID is NOT NULL
GROUP BY M1.T_EP_P2_EP_ID ORDER BY 1 DESC
53
Summary
What we covered today

Demantra Proport
Demantra Prediction Status
Demantra Log Parser
54
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Drill down to your area of
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Stored Procedure Proport high level overview Step 1

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Stored Procedure Proport high level overview Step 2

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Proport and do_fore

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If it is not accurate it will

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Calculating the Monthly Proportions

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Prediction_status and do_fore

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Demantra automatically uses these cutoff dates as follows:

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Proportional reference series

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Proportional reference series

3) use equal split

The difference for aggri_98, aggri_99 and do_aggri

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To implement the solution, please execute the following steps:

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prediction_status should be 99 - dead combinations.

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Found that HistoryLength was 0;

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Combinations with Negative Demand

Then make sure that no values in the sales_data columns

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2) update mdp_matrix set prediction_status = 99, prop_changes=1;

3) select count(*), do_fore, prediction_status group by do_fore,prediction_status;

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MDP_MATRIX - ACTIVE COMBINATIONS and ENGINE PERFORMANCE

Which are dead?

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do_fore=0, do not forecast

Prediction_status =98 or young