2016 Polling Update

April 5, 2016

As POTUS Image Continues to Improve, Trump Image Worsens

among Groups He Would Need to Win
National Favorability Tracking
President Obama

56
52

53
47

52

50

47
48

Hillary Clinton

51

50

46

Donald Trump

52

51
46

49

51

46 44

41

36

38

52

54
45

42

37
34

% View Trump
Very Unfavorably

44

53

Independents: +16
Non-College Men: +15
Mar 2015

Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015

Jul 2015

Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016

BSG Polls

POTUS Strong Ratings, Especially among BG Independents,

Make Him a Powerful Advocate for Clinton Candidacy
Battleground States*: Favorability of POTUS and 2016 Candidates
Very Fav

31

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Unsure

24

20

14

Smwt Fav

21

19

Smwt Unfav

Very Unfav

12

32

15

13

43

52

Among Inds in 2016

Battleground States

57/41

34/66

29/68

26% of BG voters unfavorable to both HRC and Trump

*Battleground states: AZ, CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI
C1. Barack Obama. Do you have a favorable view of him, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of him?
C2. Hillary Clinton. Do you have a favorable view of her, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of her?
C6. Donald Trump. Do you have a favorable view of him, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of him?

While Leading, HRC Only Gets to Majority with Leaners: Needs

Stronger Performance with White Women, Low Income Whites
Battleground States*: Clinton-Trump Horserace
Hillary Clinton

Unsure

All BG Voters:

46

47

51

Donald Trump

BG
Inds:

BG Unfav
to Both:

49

46

2016 Undecideds
(among all voters)
49% are white women
(39% of all voters)
29% are non-college white women
(21% of all voters)

38

39

42

38

38

1/5/16
Horserace

3/22/16
Horserace

3/22/16
Horserace w/
Leaners

3/22/16
Horserace w/
Leaners

3/22/16
Horserace w/
Leaners

27% are whites with income <$50K

(21% of all voters)
In March 2012, among 2012 BG State Voters,
HR with leaners was 48 Obama 44 Romney

*Battleground states: AZ, CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Messaging

Use Comments on Race, Women, Inciting Violence to Make

Trump Truly Beyond the Pale
Desired
Perception
Important
Themes

Proof Points
that Resonate

Trump is dangerous and divisive, undermining

our values and putting our security at risk

Insulting + Violent

Call him out for dividing

and insulting Americans

Use quotes from him, esp

those about women

Cite ties to and support

from groups like KKK and
incidents of violence

Undermines Security
Raise stakes: highlight
Prez responsibilities like
nuclear codes
Highlight risk of isolating
US from vital allies +
undercutting US leadership
Point out inflammatory
rhetoric helps terrorists

Untrustworthy

Use Trumps biz dealings

and policy proposals to
show he would hurt
everyday Americans

Remind voters he is being

sued for defrauding
ordinary Americans out of
thousands of dollars

Direct Attacks on Trumps Calls for Violence and Offensive

Remarks Resonate Strongly with Voters
Messaging on Violence and Divisive Rhetoric
Very Convincing

Somewhat Convincing

Offensive Comments about Women

Called women bimbos, dogs, and fat pigs
Blamed military sexual assault on presence of women
Attacked women who came fwd abt sexual harassment

56

Connections to Extremists
Rhetoric is inflammatory and dangerous
Panders to bigots and extremists
Refused to disavow KKK leader David Duke

56

Violence at Campaign Rallies

Incites violence at his campaign rallies
Said he wanted to punch protesters himself
Offered to pay supporters legal bills

55

Vulgar and Divisive Rhetoric

Uses vulgar and divisive rhetoric
Has insulted women, minorities and immigrants
Doesnt reflect American values of tolerance, inclusion

54

Q38-Q61. How convincing a reason is this to vote against Donald Trump?

72

68

70

66

Remind Voters Whats at Stake Internationally if Trump Is Prez

Messaging on Trump Undermining US Abroad
US Leadership Abroad at Risk
Trumps hateful language puts leadership at risk
Called for troops to commit war crimes and promises
to violate international law
Alienates our allies and isolates us from the world

Very Convincing

65

57

No Experience
Being president is a serious job, not reality TV
Will have unclear codes in increasingly unstable world
Too much at stake for someone w/ no real experience

55

Islam
Trumps comments on Islam + excluding immigrants
feed ISIS narrative of war between Islam and West
Trump as nominee only invites more attacks on US

46

Need a Leader Respected Abroad

Trump as president would be first time in modern
history world didnt respect US president
Cant have prez that undermines respect in the world

46

Q38-Q61. How convincing a reason is this to vote against Donald Trump?

Somewhat Convincing

65

60

57

Tap Into Concern that Trump Isnt Fighting for Ordinary

Americans and Drive Home He Cannot Be Trusted
Messaging on Trumps Untrustworthiness
Very Convincing
Enriched Himself through Bankruptcies
Born rich, racked up 4 billion in debt, declared
bankruptcy 4x
Cant trust econ with someone who cant keep own
companies afloat

49

Hurt Ordinary Americans

Econ policies would enrich billionaires at expense of
working class and middle class families
Trump would cut taxes by $275k/yr for people in top 1%
and add $10 trillion to national debt

46

Trump University
Faces 3 lawsuits for fraud by people hurt by Trump
University
Thought they would get training and mentorship, instead
had unqualified instructors and many left in debt

45

Q38-Q61. How convincing a reason is this to vote against Donald Trump?

Somewhat Convincing

61

61

63

Messaging Should Reinforce Existing Concerns Rather than Try

to Undermine Widely-Held Views Hes Unique or Successful
Less Effective Messaging on Trump
Very Convincing
Typical Republican
Says hes different from other Republicans,
but policies would only benefit those at the top
Let insurance companies throw 20 million
people off health insurance
Give massive unfair tax cuts to millionaires
and billionaires

Not That Successful

Never accomplished anything great because
only in it for himself
Inherited money, wouldve made more leaving
it in index funds instead of managing himself

Q38-Q61. How convincing a reason is this to vote against Donald Trump?

Somewhat Convincing

40

33

60

49

Trumps business
failures are only
relevant if they show
how he hurt ordinary
Americans while
enriching himself

10

Minimal Horserace Movement Suggests that Trump Is Already

Well Defined and Will Have Trouble Pivoting to General Election
Clinton-Trump Horserace with Leaners, Before and After POTUS Attacks on Trump
Donald Trump

Unsure

Hillary Clinton

All Voters

BG State Independents

44

47

41

45

44

Post Messaging

Pre Messaging

Post Messaging

52

54

42

Pre Messaging

HR1. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
HR1A. I know you said that you were undecided or not voting for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. But if the election were held today and you had to decide between
Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you be more likely to vote?

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Appendix

Full Trump Messaging Text on Violence and Divisive Rhetoric

OFFENSIVE COMMENTS ABOUT WOMEN: Donald Trump has spent years making insulting and offensive comments about women. Not only
has he called women bimbos, dogs, and fat pigs, but he blamed military sexual assault on the presence of women, and attacked women
who came forward about workplace sexual harassment. Theres no place for those kinds of comments in our politics.

CONNECTIONS TO EXTREMISTS: Donald Trumps rhetoric is inflammatory and dangerous, and he appeals to our worst impulses. Hes
pandered to bigots and extremists, and even refused to disavow the support of white supremacist groups and well-known Ku Klux Klan
leaders like David Duke. We cannot have a president who spreads intolerance and hate instead of keeping Americans safe.

VIOLENCE AT CAMPAIGN RALLIES: Donald Trump has incited violence at his own campaign rallies, encouraging his supporters to abuse and
assault protesters and saying he wanted to punch the protesters himself. His supporters have already violently attacked multiple people at his
rallies, and instead of condemning their behavior, he's encouraged them by offering to pay their legal bills. We cannot have a president who
actively spreads violence in our communities.

VULGAR AND DIVISIVE RHETORIC: Donald Trump uses vulgar and divisive rhetoric, which turns Americans against each other and
undermines our democracy and our values. He has insulted women, minorities, immigrants, and is spreading prejudice and fear in our
communities. Donald Trump is not an accurate reflection of America, or American values of tolerance and inclusion.

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Full Trump Messaging Text on Trump Undermining US Abroad

US LEADERSHIP ABROAD AT RISK: The world looks to America as a leader, but Donald Trumps hateful, inflammatory language puts our
leadership at risk. Hes insulted our allies, called for our troops to commit war crimes, and promised to violate international laws against torture.
One of our closest allies, the U.K., debated banning Trump from their country for hate speech. We can't have a President who alienates our allies
and isolates us in the world.

NO EXPERIENCE: Being president is a serious job, its not hosting a reality TV show. The next president will have the nuclear codes, and be
responsible for conducting US diplomacy in an increasingly unstable and dangerous world. There is too much at stake to have someone with
no real experience in the White House.

ISLAM: Donald Trumps intolerant comments about Islam and talk of excluding immigrants of Muslim faith feeds the ISIS narrative that there
is a war between Islam and the West. It helps ISIS, its counterproductive, and it needs to stop. If Republicans choose Donald Trump as their
nominee, theyll only invite more attacks on America.

NEED A LEADER RESPECTED ABROAD: The President of the United States is the leader of the free world. If Donald Trump became President,
it would mark the first time in modern history that the world didn't look to our president with deference and great respect. We can't have a President
who insults and alienates our allies and undermines our respect in the world.

14

Full Trump Messaging Text on Trumps Untrustworthiness

BANKRUPTCIES AND FAILED BUSINESSES: Donald Trump says hes a successful businessman, but the truth is he was born rich and his
career is littered with failures, like a failed vodka brand, a failed airline, and a failed steak company. Trumps bad business decisions led him and
his companies to rack up nearly $4 billion in debt before declaring bankruptcy 4 times. Americans cant trust our economy with someone who
cant keep their own companies afloat.

HURT ORDINARY AMERICANS: Donald Trump claims that he will fight for ordinary Americans, but his economic policies would enrich
billionaires like him at the expense of working and middle class families. Trumps tax plan would cut taxes by $275,000 a year for people in the
top 1% like him, while adding nearly $10 trillion to the national debt that will be left to our children and grandchildren.

TRUMP UNIVERSITY: Donald Trump might claim that he would help Americans get ahead, but he currently faces 3 lawsuits for fraud committed
against ordinary people, who were hurt by his failed Trump University business. Thousands of Americans believed that Trump University would
give them business training and one-on-one mentorship, but all they got were seminars from unqualified instructors that cost them as much as
$36,000 and left many of them in debt.

15

Full Trump Messaging Text that Resonated Less Strongly

TYPICAL REPUBLICAN- AGAINST ACA: Trump says hes different from other Republicans, but hes proposing the same old policies that
would only benefit those at the top. He wants to let insurance companies throw 20 million people off their health care plans and give massive
unfair tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. Trump may act different, but hes looking out for his friends at the top, not ordinary Americans.

NOT THAT SUCCESSFUL: Trump has never accomplished anything great because hes only in it for himself. Hes turned an inherited fortune
into a small chain of golf clubs and hotels, leaving bankruptcies and lawsuits in his wake. In fact, financial experts say given how much money his
father gave him, he would have made more money just by leaving it in an index fund rather than managing it himself.

16