CA-31

GENERAL ELECTION
2016

Survey conducted June 14 through June 15, 2016. 1,091 likely 2016 General Election voters participated
in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election.
Margin of Error is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to
rounding.

Q: What do you believe should be the top priority for Congress?

Jobs & Economy: 31%
Terrorism & National Security: 22%
Immigration: 7%
Border Security: 7%
Education: 7%
Budget & Deficit: 4%
Healthcare: 3%
Taxes: 2%
Something else: 3%
Unsure: 13%
Q: If the election for United States Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican
candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Democrat: 46%
Republican: 45%
Undecided: 9%
Q: What is your opinion of Pete Aguilar?
Favorable: 36%
Unfavorable: 21%
No opinion: 43%
Q: What is your opinion of Paul Chabot?
Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 21%
No opinion: 51%
Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Congress are:
Paul Chabot, Prefers Republican Party, Counterterrorism Military Officer, and,
Pete Aguilar, Prefers Democratic Party, United States Representative
If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? [ROTATE]
Paul Chabot: 43%
Pete Aguilar: 43%
Undecided: 14%

Q: What do you believe should be the top priority for Congress?

BY ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Column %
Jobs & Economy
Terrorism & Nat'l Security
Immigration
Border security
Education
Budget & Deficit
Healthcare
Taxes
Something else
Unsure

AD 40
32%
22%
7%
9%
7%
4%
3%
2%
5%
10%

AD 41
25%
31%
11%
6%
6%
2%
4%
3%
3%
9%

AD 47
33%
18%
4%
4%
7%
6%
5%
2%
1%
22%

BY PARTY
Column %
Republican Democrat Non-Partisan
Jobs & Economy
20%
41%
31%
Terrorism & Nat'l Security
32%
13%
22%
Immigration
10%
3%
8%
Border security
13%
1%
9%
Education
4%
9%
6%
Budget & Deficit
5%
2%
8%
Healthcare
1%
5%
5%
Taxes
3%
3%
0%
Something else
2%
5%
3%
Unsure
10%
18%
9%
BY GENDER
Column %
Jobs & Economy
Terrorism & Nat'l Security
Immigration
Border security
Education
Budget & Deficit
Healthcare
Taxes
Something else
Unsure

Female
28%
26%
4%
6%
7%
5%
4%
2%
4%
15%

Male
36%
16%
10%
8%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
12%

Q: What do you believe should be the top priority for Congress? (Continued)
BY AGE
Column %
Jobs & Economy
Terrorism & Nat'l Security
Immigration
Border security
Education
Budget & Deficit
Healthcare
Taxes
Something else
Unsure

18-29
37%
8%
4%
16%
26%
0%
0%
0%
3%
6%

30-39
33%
16%
14%
5%
2%
6%
2%
9%
6%
6%

40-49
31%
22%
7%
6%
4%
8%
4%
0%
1%
16%

BY RACE
Column %
White African-American Hispanic
Jobs & Economy
30%
52%
29%
Terrorism & Nat'l Security 25%
20%
19%
Immigration
8%
4%
7%
Border security
8%
1%
5%
Education
5%
5%
9%
Budget & Deficit
5%
0%
4%
Healthcare
4%
6%
3%
Taxes
2%
2%
3%
Something else
3%
2%
4%
Unsure
11%
8%
17%

50-69
31%
25%
5%
6%
6%
4%
5%
2%
3%
12%

70+
26%
27%
7%
6%
1%
2%
2%
2%
4%
24%

Asian
49%
10%
0%
16%
6%
5%
0%
0%
0%
14%

Other
30%
21%
11%
14%
9%
0%
2%
0%
2%
10%

Q: If the election for United States Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican
candidate or the Democratic candidate?
BY ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Column %
Democrat
Republican
Undecided

AD 40
43%
48%
9%

AD 41
35%
60%
5%

AD 47
56%
32%
12%

BY PARTY
Column %
Democrat
Republican
Undecided

Republican
6%
86%
8%

Democrat
84%
11%
5%

Non-Partisan
38%
41%
21%

BY GENDER
Column %
Democrat
Republican
Undecided

Female
47%
42%
11%

Male
44%
48%
8%

BY AGE
Column %
Democrat
Republican
Undecided

18-29
40%
53%
7%

30-39
49%
43%
8%

40-49
54%
35%
11%

BY RACE
Column %
Democrat
Republican
Undecided

White
33%
56%
11%

African-American
71%
11%
18%

Hispanic
61%
34%
6%

50-69
43%
47%
11%

70+
46%
46%
8%

Asian Other
56%
46%
39%
40%
5%
14%

Q: What is your opinion of Pete Aguilar?

BY ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

AD 40
37%
24%
40%

AD 41
26%
21%
54%

AD 47
37%
15%
49%

BY PARTY
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

Republican
21%
27%
52%

Democrat
51%
12%
37%

Non-Partisan
29%
28%
43%

BY GENDER
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

Female
36%
17%
47%

Male
35%
25%
39%

BY AGE
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

18-29
46%
22%
32%

30-39
32%
32%
36%

40-49
35%
11%
54%

BY RACE
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

White
32%
22%
47%

African-American
30%
18%
52%

Hispanic
44%
18%
39%

50-69
32%
22%
46%

70+
41%
16%
43%

Asian Other
32%
26%
28%
30%
40%
43%

Q: What is your opinion of Paul Chabot?

BY ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

AD 40
32%
22%
46%

AD 41
35%
20%
45%

AD 47
19%
19%
63%

BY PARTY
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

Republican
46%
13%
42%

Democrat
13%
26%
61%

Non-Partisan
30%
25%
45%

BY GENDER
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

Female
26%
16%
58%

Male
31%
27%
41%

BY AGE
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

18-29
40%
16%
44%

30-39
35%
22%
43%

40-49
20%
24%
56%

BY RACE
Column %
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion

White
32%
21%
47%

African-American
3%
26%
71%

Hispanic
28%
18%
53%

50-69
29%
21%
50%

70+
24%
19%
57%

Asian Other
22%
25%
28%
20%
50%
56%

Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Congress are:
Paul Chabot, Prefers Republican Party, Counterterrorism Military Officer, and,
Pete Aguilar, Prefers Democratic Party, United States Representative
If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? [ROTATE]
BY ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Column %
Paul Chabot
Pete Aguilar
Undecided

AD 40
48%
42%
11%

AD 41
54%
29%
16%

AD 47
29%
52%
19%

BY PARTY
Column %
Paul Chabot
Pete Aguilar
Undecided

Republican
78%
8%
15%

Democrat
12%
76%
12%

Non-Partisan
47%
39%
13%

BY GENDER
Column %
Paul Chabot
Pete Aguilar
Undecided

Female
41%
45%
14%

Male
46%
41%
13%

BY AGE
Column %
Paul Chabot
Pete Aguilar
Undecided

18-29
33%
45%
22%

30-39
48%
46%
5%

40-49
35%
49%
16%

BY RACE
Column %
Paul Chabot
Pete Aguilar
Undecided

White
55%
32%
13%

African-American
21%
62%
17%

Hispanic
30%
57%
14%

50-69
47%
39%
14%

70+
43%
46%
11%

Asian Other
38%
40%
49%
41%
13%
19%

DEMOGRAPHICS
ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
AD 40
AD 41
AD 47

%
61%
11%
28%

PARTY
Republican
Democrat
Non-Partisan

%
37%
43%
20%

GENDER
Female
Male

%
56%
44%

AGE
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-69
70+

%
11%
14%
16%
42%
17%

RACE
White
African-American
Hispanic
Asian
Other

%
53%
5%
35%
5%
2%