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25 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Dollar and Yen higher on Spain banking concern, Korea tension
Risk aversion is trying to re gather momentum today on fear that banking problems in Spain will add further weight to the fiscal debt problem
in Eurozone. In addition, investors are also nervous as tensions on the Korean peninsula escalates. Japanese Nikkei is down -3.06% or 298 pts
while MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped over 3% to the lowest level since last July. Crude oil is back trading below 69 level and is heading
further south. Dollar index is lifted to above 86.8 but the yen is even stronger with USD/JPY back below 90 level again. We might see dollar and
yen breaks recent high against other major currencies if sentiments worsen further in European session.
After Bank of Spain intervened and bailed out Cajasur over the weekend, four Spanish savings banks plan to merge to for the nation's fifth
largest group. Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo, Grupo Cajastur, Caja de Ahorros de Santander y Cantabria and Caja de Ahorros y Monte de
Piedad de Extremadura submitted a proposal to Spain’s central bank to combine their businesses. Finance Minister Elena Salgado said
yesterday that more savings banks would merge in coming weeks. THe development raised concerns on the generally fragile state of banking
industries in Spain. IMF's report yesterday also weighed on the sentiments and said that Spain's "challenges are severe: a dysfunctional labor
market, the deflating property bubble, a large fiscal deficit, heavy private sector and external indebtedness, anemic productivity growth, weak
competitiveness, and a banking sector with pockets of weakness."
Korean won dropped over -1.6% against dollar and with USD/KRW breaches 1200 level mark for the first time since last October. Korean
stocks are down -2.75% and drags Asian stocks lower. Tension between North and South Korea intensified a report showed North Korean
leader Kim Jong Il told the country’s military to be combat-ready in a message broadcast last week. Yesterday, South Korea President Lee
Myung-bak suspend trade ties, condemning last week's attack on a warship. Lee said that the country would take up the issue with UN security
council and would defend itself against any further North Korean aggression.
On the data front, Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose slightly to 1.76 in April. UK GDP revision, EUrozone industrial orders, US house price
index and consumer confidence will be released later today. But main focus will be on developments in Spain.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1.2245
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.2290 with stop 1.2445 target 1.2143/50 first for 1.20 next
Have been stopped on my LONG position from 1.2445 at 1.2390
Enter LONG if we break 1.2415 with a stop 1.2295 target near 1.3670
EUR/USD's break of 1.2295 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.2143 has completed at 1.2671 already. Intraday bias is flipped back
to the downside for 1.2143 low first. break will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first for the 100% projection of
1.3691 to 1.2526 from 1.3093 at 1.1928 next. On the upside, above 1.2415 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more
consolidations first. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3691 to 1.2143 at 1.2734 and bring fall resumption
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from
0.8823 and fall form 1.5144 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further
to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5144 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of 1.3266 resistance is needed to be the first signal of
bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of
1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to
1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209
key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1.1618
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at1.1602 with a stop 1.1545 target near 1.1670
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.1447 with stop 1.1545 target 1.1244 first for 1.0920 next
The daily bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside as recent rally continues. Further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897
from 1.0434 at 1.1673 first. Break will target medium term resistance of 1.1963 next. On the downside, note that break of 1.1447 support will
indicate that a short term top is form with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours RSI and Stochastic oscillators. In such case, deeper pull back
would be seen towards 1.0922/1244 support zone before staging another rise.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 0.9916 is treated as resumption of the long term
rise from 2008 low of 0.9634. Such rise is expected to have a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to
1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0897 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise,
we'll stay bullish.
In the bigger picture, In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish divergence condition in
monthly RSI & Stochastic. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634. Such development will favor the case that long term down
trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1.4227
Position Strategy:Current position : LONG at 1.4468 with a stop 1.4138 target 1.4587 first for 1.4642 next
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.4138 with stop 1.4216 target 1.3869
EUR/CHF drops further to as low as 1.4217 so far today and further decline could be seen as long as 1.4365 minor resistance notes.
Nevertheless, such fall is treated as a correction only and should be contained above 1.4138 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4477 will
flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4587 high first towards the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement from 1.4002 to 1.4846 at 1.4642
next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place above 1.4 psychological level and
the cross has now entered into another consolidation phase. However, note that the current rebound is not strong enough to warranted a
reversal of the long term down trend yet. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.4846 to limit upside. The cross should revisit 1.4 level again some
time in medium term.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run. Break of 1.5138 is needed to confirm reversal.
Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1.4288
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT, Have been stopped on SHORT position from 1.4249 at 1.4517
Enter LONG if we break 1.4527 with a stop 1.4313 target near 1.5053
The GBP/USD's recovery might be completed at 1.4527 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for the moment. Break of 1.4230
will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.3848 next. However, break of
1.4527 will suggest that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 1.5053 resistance before staying another fall.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at
1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook
will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 0.8110
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT.

Enter LONG on a break of 0.8366 with a stop 0.8183 target 0.8454
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.8069 with stop 0.8187 target 0.7702
The daily bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in range above 0.8069. Another rise cannot be ruled out but upside should be
limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9077 to 0.8069 at 0.8454 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.8069 will confirm fall
resumption and should target next key support level at 0.7702.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the decline from 0.9380 is steep, it's still treated as a correction to
medium term up trend from 0.6008. Hence, we're expecting strong support from 0.7702 (50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706), at
least initially, to bring rebound. But after all, break of 0.8715 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 0.9380 is completed. Otherwise,
more downside would remain in favor.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 89.73
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT: Have been stopped on profit on SHORT position from 90.84 at 90.55
Enter LONG on a break of 90.92 stop at 89.95 target near 93.62
Enter SHORT on a break of 88.97 with stop 90.10 target 88.13 for 84.81 next
The daily bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 88.97 might be still in progress. Another recovery cannot be ruled out but
upside should be limited by 90.92 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 88.97 will target 88.13/25 key support zone first. On the upside,
above 90.92 minor resistance will argue that fall from 93.62 is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for this resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, considering that USD/JPY failed to sustained above the lower band of the
ascending channel, green line on the chart, now at 90.86 and dropped sharply, we're now slightly favoring the case that down trend from
124.13 is not over. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The
corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, 94.97 will revive the case
that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 109.87
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT.

Enter LONG on a clear break of 114.39 stop at 112.45 target 122.27
The EUR/JPY's recovery from 109.48 might have completed at 114.39 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 109.48 support
first. Break will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next.
Nevertheless, break of 114.39 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours
Stochastic and RSI. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen, possibly towards 122.27 resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, fall from 139.21 is treated as resumption of long term down trend from 2007
high of 169.96 and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 which is close to 100 psychological level. Though,
we'd expect strong support between 2000 low of 88.96 and 100 psychological level to contain downside and bring reversal. On the upside,
break of 127.88 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave
structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave
correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third falling leg is now in progress but would be
contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 128.3
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

Enter LONG on a clear break of 131.36 with stop 129.10 target near 140.55
Enter SHORT on a break of 126.73 with stop 129.74 target 120 first for 118.81 next
GBP/JPY's recovery from 126.73 might have completed at 131.36 already and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for
126.73 support first. Break will confirm fall and will target 120 psychological level first and then 118.81 key medium term low next.
Nevertheless, break of 131.36 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with bullish convergence condition
in 4 hours AO and RSI. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen, possibly towards 140.55 resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view rebound from 118.81, which is treated as
correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as
resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to
100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1.0757
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.0700 with stop at 1.0779 target near 1.0246 first for 1.0109 next
Enter LONG on a break of 1.0779 with stop 1.0536 target near 1.1126
The USD/CAD's break of 1.0748 indicates that rise from 1.0109 has resumed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and note that decisive
break of 1.0779 resistance will confirm medium term bottoming. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to
0.9929 at 1.1126 next. however, break of 1.0534 support will indicate that rise from 1.0109 is over and will turn bias back to the downside for
retesting this support.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of medium term
reversal yet, It’s why I will try a short at 1.0700. Whole down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 might still continue and below 0.9929 low will
target 2008 low of 0.9056. However, note that break of 1.0779 will confirm that fall from 1.3063 has completed and stronger rebound should
be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 and above.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 1187.68
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1169.55 with stop 1193 target 1124.3 first for 1044.5 next
Enter LONG on a break of 1206.8 with stop 1169 target 1249
No changer: Gold's fall from 1249.35 made a 'double top' pattern and extends further to as low as 1166.20 last week but lost downside moment
as it hit 1169.55 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1124.3 to 1249.35 at 1171.6). Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway
trading should be seen around 1169.5 first. On the upside, break of 1206.8 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1249.35 has
completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this high. However, note that firm break of 1169.55 will argue that whole rise
from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support first for 1044.5 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.35 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1169.5 cluster
support as well as long term trend indicator, light green line on the chat, now at 1165.35. However, note that sustained trading below the long
trend indicator will opens up a bearish possibilities. The bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation
from 1227.5 , in an irregular flat pattern, and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next, a factor that is favoring this view now is that the
short term trend indicator, light blue line on the chart is crossing below the medium term trend indicator, red line on the chart. On the upside,
a break above 1206.8 minor resistance will reactivated our bullish and a break above 1249.35 will be the confirmation and will target 100%
projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.
CrudeOIL July future contract
The technical outlook for OIL Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 68.42
Current position : SHORT at 68.80 with stop 71.25 target 60.5 ,Have taken profit from SHORT position from 70.80 at 70.15
Enter LONG on a clear break of 71.25 stop at 69.30 target 75
Crude oil dived to as low as 68.30 today and break the support at 68.83 there and turned the daily bias bearish. The break of 68.83 target now
60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.12 at 60.16. On the upside, a break of 71.25 may bring recovery
with a risk of divergence on stochastic and AC oscillators, and stronger rally might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 87.12 to 68.83 at 75.71.
However, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 80.06 and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 70.83/71.09 support zone affirms our view that whole medium
term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.12 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be
seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.12 at 60.16 at least. Also, we count the rebound from 33.2 as the second leg of the whole correction that
started at 2008 at 147.27. On the upside, break of resistance at 81.26 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.12 is completed.
Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance
zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.12 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd
anticipate an eventual break of 60.16 target and may bring 58.98 first for 54.25 next and a final target between 51.23 and 49.73.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Tuesday, May the 25th, 2010, level 9841.15
Current position: SHORT at 9865 with stop 10090 target 9789 first for 9557 next
Enter LONG on a break of 10505.15 stop at 10306 target near 10914
By breaking below 9865.65 may imply that the third leg of the correction is still on and may target 9557 and bring resumption. The Dow
potential “double bottom pattern” still exit and as I said previously, we are now on the third leg of the correction after rebound from 9865.65
failed to sustain above the Fibonacci retracement at 10865 and pullback from this level. As expected following our current Elliott wave count,
the current sharp selloff argues that correction fall from 11196.65 high is resuming and 10916.15 was the end wave b of II. We are now in
wave c of II and as noted before, following this count another leg down is perhaps still on or the bottoming process is still possible. On the
upside, we may move above 10916.15 to trigger the” double bottom” pattern but a break of 10505.15 will the first sign of the end of the
correction. But for now by the break of 9865.65 a move below 9789 will confirm the continuation of the third leg of the correction in direction
of 9557.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50%
retracement rally was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of
Primary wave I of Cycle wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 of I conclude with alternation with
the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10% correction, and following our count: we have ended wave I at 11196.65 and we are now in wave II
that may be ended or have a potential to go as far as 9557. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will
be followed by a wave II in correction that may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L Nb of
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips trades
EUR/USD Short 1.229 1.2245 1.2445 1.2143/50 45 1,086 1,131 12
CHF/USD Long 1.1602 1.1618 1.1545 1.167 16 453 469 9
EUR/CHF Long 1.4468 1.4227 1.4138 1.4642 -241 247 6 3
GBP/USD Flat 0 318 318 10
AUD/USD Flat 0 471 471 10
USD/JPY Flat 0 255 255 8
EUR/JPY Flat 0 805 805 8
GBP/JPY Flat 0 307 307 9
USD/CAD Short 1.07 1.0757 1.0779 1.0246 -57 709 652 9
TOTAL -237 4,651 4,414 78
Current Open P&L Nb of
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts trades
Gold Flat 0.00 -86.3 -86.30 4
Oil Short 68.8 68.42 71.25 60.5 0.38 9.8 10.18 8
Dow Jones Short 9865 9841.15 10090 9789 23.85 1289.1 1,312.95 5
Monthly
recap
Since April 16 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Total
EUR/USD 247 839 1086
CHF/USD -34 487 453
EUR/CHF 247 247
GBP/USD -56 642 586
AUD/USD -145 616 471
USD/JPY 161 94 255
EUR/JPY -31 836 805
GBP/JPY -97 404 307
USD/CAD 149 560 709
TOTAL 194 4725 4,919
Gold -11.3 -75 -86.30
Oil 1.71 8.09 9.80
Dow Jones 533.6 755.5 1289.1
ECONOMIC CALANDAR
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q2 -- 2.7%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Apr -- 1.708
07:30 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. May 107.3 107.9
08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales s.a. M/M Mar 0.1% 0.1%
08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -- -0.4%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% 0.2%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 P -0.2% -0.3%
08:30 GBP Private Consumption Q1 P -0.1% 0.4%
08:30 GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q1 P -0.3% -2.7%
08:30 GBP Government Spending Q1 P 0.6% 1.0%
08:30 GBP Exports Q1 P 0.0% 3.8%
08:30 GBP Imports Q1 P 0.6% 4.7%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Mar 0.2% 0.4%
08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr 37000 34905
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a. M/M Mar 2.5% 1.5%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Mar 15.0% 12.2%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. M/M Mar -0.4% -0.1%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar 2.4% 0.6%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Mar -- 144
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Q1 -- 136.1
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Y/Y Q1 -- -2.5%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence May 59.0 57.9
14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index May 25 30
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Mar -- -0.2%
14:00 USD House Price Purchase Index Q/Q Q1 -- -0.1%
15:15 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in London England --
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 21) -- -794K
20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 21) -- 981K
20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 21) -- -331K
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 23) -- -44
23:50 JPY BoJ Meeting Minutes -- --
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr -- -1.1%
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar -- 0.5%
00:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks at BoJ -- --

Conference
01:30 AUD Construction Work Done Q1 4.0% 2.6%
02:00 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks at BoJ Conference -- --
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence May -- 46.8
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Jun 3.7 3.8
06:45 EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook May -- 4
06:45 EUR French Production Outlook Indicator May 7 8
06:45 EUR French Business Confidence Indicator May 97 97
06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending M/M Apr -0.4% 1.2%
06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending Y/Y Apr 1.5% 2.5%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 21) -- -1.5%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Apr 1.3% -1.3%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Apr 0.3% 2.8%
13:00 CAD Canada House Price Index Y/Y Apr -- 9.9
14:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Apr 2.2% 26.9%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Apr 420K 411K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 21) -- 162K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 21) -- -294K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 21) -- -979K
20:15 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Apr 455M 567M
22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (NZD) Apr -60 -194
22:45 NZD Imports (NZD) Apr 3.43B 3.49B
22:45 NZD Exports (NZD) Apr 3.88B 4.06B
23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (JPY) Apr 687.5B 666.2B
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (JPY) Apr 700.3B 948.9B
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports Y/Y Apr 38.3 43.5
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports Y/Y Apr 23.3 20.7
Thursday, May 27, 2010
-- EUR German CPI M/M May P 0.1% -0.1%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y May P 1.2% 1.0%
-- EUR HICP M/M May P 0.1% -0.1%
-- EUR HICP Y/Y May P 1.2% 1.0%
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Mar -- -0.3%
00:00 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks at BoJ -- --

Conference
01:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q1 2.5% 5.5%
06:40 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in Stockholm Sweden --
06:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence Indicator -38 -37

May
07:15 CHF Employment Level Y/Y Q1 -- -0.1%
07:15 CHF Employment Level Q1 -- 3.960M
07:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence May 85.8 85.5
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages M/M Apr -- 0.3%
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages Y/Y Apr -- 2.3%
10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades May -- 13
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 S 3.5% 3.2%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Q1 S 3.7% 3.6%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q1 S 0.6% 0.6%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 S 0.9% 0.9%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 22) 435K 471K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAY 15) -- 4625K
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr -- -0.4%
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey May -17 -16
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y May -1.2% -1.5%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y May -1.5% -1.9%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y May -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Apr -1.1% -1.1%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Apr -1.4% -1.2%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Apr -1.4%
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate Apr 5.0% 5.0%
23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio Apr 0.50 0.49
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Apr 2.6% 4.4%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. M/M Apr -1.0% 0.8%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 3.6% 4.7%
23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales Apr -5.3% -5.0%
Friday, May 28, 2010
03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 Y/Y Apr -- -3.5%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Apr 1.5% 1.7%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Apr 7.4% 5.0%
06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Apr -- 2.01B
06:15 CHF Exports M/M Apr -- 1.4%
06:15 CHF Imports M/M Apr -- -2.2%
09:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator May 2.03 1.99
12:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (CAD) Q1 -$7.0B -$9.8B
12:30 USD Personal Income Apr 0.5% 0.3%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Apr 0.3% 0.6%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Apr 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Apr 1.2% 1.3%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Apr -- 2.0%
13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager May 62.0 63.8
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May F 73.5 73.3
14:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee May -- 66
16:00 EUR French Total Jobseekers Apr -- 2661.3
16:00 EUR French Total Jobseekers Change Apr -- -6.6%
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25 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT.

Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT.

Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT

CrudeOIL July future contract

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

TRACK Since April

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q2 -- 2.7%

06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Apr -- 1.708

08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales Y/Y Mar -- -0.4%

08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% 0.2%

08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 P -0.2% -0.3%

08:30 GBP Private Consumption Q1 P -0.1% 0.4%

08:30 GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q1 P -0.3% -2.7%

08:30 GBP Government Spending Q1 P 0.6% 1.0%

08:30 GBP Exports Q1 P 0.0% 3.8%

08:30 GBP Imports Q1 P 0.6% 4.7%

08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Mar 0.2% 0.4%

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. M/M Mar -0.4% -0.1%

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar 2.4% 0.6%

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Mar -- 144

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Q1 -- 136.1

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index Y/Y Q1 -- -2.5%

14:00 USD Consumer Confidence May 59.0 57.9

14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index May 25 30

14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Mar -- -0.2%

14:00 USD House Price Purchase Index Q/Q Q1 -- -0.1%

15:15 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in London England --

20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 21) -- 981K

20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 21) -- -331K

21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 23) -- -44

23:50 JPY BoJ Meeting Minutes -- --

23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr -- -1.1%

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar -- 0.5%

00:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks at BoJ -- --

01:30 AUD Construction Work Done Q1 4.0% 2.6%

02:00 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks at BoJ Conference -- --

05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence May -- 46.8

06:45 EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook May -- 4

06:45 EUR French Production Outlook Indicator May 7 8

06:45 EUR French Business Confidence Indicator May 97 97

06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending M/M Apr -0.4% 1.2%

06:45 EUR French Consumer Spending Y/Y Apr 1.5% 2.5%

11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 21) -- -1.5%

12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Apr 1.3% -1.3%

12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Apr 0.3% 2.8%

13:00 CAD Canada House Price Index Y/Y Apr -- 9.9

14:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Apr 2.2% 26.9%

14:00 USD New Home Sales Apr 420K 411K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 21) -- -294K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 21) -- -979K

20:15 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --

22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Apr 455M 567M

22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (NZD) Apr -60 -194

22:45 NZD Imports (NZD) Apr 3.43B 3.49B

22:45 NZD Exports (NZD) Apr 3.88B 4.06B