PROBABILIDAD Y ESTADISTICA I

PRCTICA PREPARATORIA DEL CAPTULO IV

1.- La mesa directiva de una escuela pblica est compuesta por cinco miembros de la comunidad,
dos de los cuales son abogados. El ministerio de educacin planea seleccionar dos de los cinco
miembros de esta mesa directiva al azar, para constituir un subcomit que debe negociar con el
sindicato del profesorado de esa escuela. El inters est en la composicin de ese subcomit.
a) Defina el experimento.
b) Hacer una lista de los puntos muestrales de S.
c) Si todas las posibles parejas de miembros de la mesa directiva tienen la misma probabilidad
de ser seleccionadas, Cul es la probabilidad de que el comit quede constituido por dos
abogados?
d) Cul es la probabilidad de que el subcomit tenga al menos un abogado? Cul sera de
que no tenga abogados?
Solucin
N=5
R=2

2 abogados A1 A2
3 profesores P1 P2 P3

a) X = N de personas elegidas para formar el subcomit

b) N casos posibles

5 = 5 ! =10
2 3 ! 2!

()

S= {( A1 P 1) ( A 1 P2 ) ( A 1 P3 ) ( A 2 P1 ) ( A 2 P 2) ( A 2 P3 ) ( A1 A 2 ) ( P1 P2 ) ( P1 P3 ) ( P2 P3 ) }
A 1
= =0.10
S 10

c)

P ( X=2 A )=

d)

P ( X 1 A )=P ( X =1 A )+ P ( X =2 A )=
P ( X=0 )=

6 1
7
+ = =0.70
10 10 10

3
=0.30
10

2.- A una reunin llegan Carmen, Lola, Mercedes, Juan, Fernando y Luis. Se eligen dos personas al azar sin
importar el orden:
a) Obtener el espacio muestral de este experimento.
b) Calcular la probabilidad de que dos personas sean del mismo sexo.
Solucin
N=6
R=2

Carmen = C, Lola = Lo, Mercedes = M

Juan = J, Fernando = F, Luis = Lu.

6!
N casos posibles= n =
=15
r 4 ! 2!

()

a)

S= { (C , Lo )( C , M ) ( C , J )( C , F ) (C , Lu )( Lo , M )( Lo , J )( Lo , F )( Lo , Lu )( M , J )( m , F ) ( M , Lu ) ( J , F )( J , Lu ) (F
b) X = dos sean del mismo sexo

P ( X )=

X 6
= =0.40
S 15

3.- Considere el siguiente experimento: se lanza una moneda hasta que aparece la primera cara.
a) Cules son los elementos del espacio muestral?
b) Escribirlos elementos del evento A definido por la primera cara aparece en los tres primeros
lanzamientos. Escribir los elementos del suceso B dado por la primera cara sale en un lanzamiento
par.
Solucin
a)

N casos posibles=2n
X = N de caras
n = N de lanzamientos

b) A = la 1 cara aparece en las tres primeros lanzamientos

N casos posibles = 23 = 8

S= { ( ccc )( ccs ) ( css )( sss ) ( ssc ) ( scs ) (csc)}

S X ={ ( ccc ) ( ccs )( cs s ) (csc) }
4.- Una urna contiene 13 fichas, de las cuales 6 fichas estn numeradas con 15, cuatro numeradas con 10 y
tres con 5. Si de esa urna se sacan tres fichas ala azar y al mismo tiempo, calcular la probabilidad de que:
a) Al menos dos de ellas tengan el mismo nmero.
b) La suma de las tres fichas sea 30.
Solucin
N = 13
R=3
a)

P ( X 2 mismo n mero )=P ( X =2 ) + P ( X=3 )

13 !
N casos posibles= 13 =
=286
10 ! 3!
3

( )

6 4 3
6 4 3
6 4 3
6 4 3
6 4 3
(
2 )( 1 )( 0 ) ( 2 )( 0 )( 1 ) ( 1)( 2 )( 0) ( 0 )( 2 )( 1 ) ( 1 )( 0 )( 2 )
P ( x 2 )=
+
+
+
+
13
13
13
13
( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) (133)

6 4 3
6 4 3
6 4 3
+ 6 4 3
0 1 2
3 0 0
0 3 0
0 0 3
+
+
+
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3

( )( )( ) ( )( )( ) ( )( )( ) ( )( )( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )

P ( X 2 )=

60 45 36 18 18 12 20
4
1
214
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
=
=0.748
286 286 286 286 286 286 286 286 286 286

b) X = suma sea 30

6 4 3
6 4 3
(
)(
)(
)
(
1 1 1
0 )( 3 )( 0 )
P ( x=30 )=
+
(133) ( 133)

643 141 76
+
=
=0.2657
286
286
286

5.- De 100 pacientes examinados, 20 padecan de artritis, 32 padecan de gastritis y 8 tenan ambos males.
Hallar la probabilidad de seleccionar un apaciente que padezca de artritis o gastritis.
Solucin
N = 100
20 artritis = A
32 gastritis = B
8 ambos males = A B
P (artritis o gastritis) = P (A U B)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )
P ( A B )=

20 32
8
+

=0.2+0.320.08=0.44
100 100 100

6.- Suponga que en la industria de los cereales envasados, el 29 % de los vicepresidentes poseen el titulo de
maestra en administracin de empresas, el 24% de ellos han realizado estudios en una escuela comercial y el
8% tiene ambas cosas. Se va a seleccionar un vicepresidente al azar.
a) Cul es la probabilidad de que el vicepresidente tenga o bien el titulo de maestra en administracin
de empresas o haya realizado estudios en una escuela comercial (o ambas cosas)?
b) Cul es la probabilidad de que el vicepresidente no tenga ninguno de los ttulos anterires?
Solucin

a)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )
P ( A B )=0.29+ 0.240.08=0.45=45

 B ) =P ( A
B ) =1P ( A B )
P( A

b)

P ( A )+P ( B )PA B
1[ ]
1[ 0.29+0.240.08 ]
10.45=0.55=55
7.Solucin
A = llegue tarde a la junta matutina
B = llegue tarde a la junta vespertina

P ( A )=0.40

a)

P ( B ) =0.50
P ( A B ) =0.25
P ( A B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )
0.25=0.400.50
0.25 0.20

A y B no son independientes
b)

P = llegue a tiempo a ambas juntas =

B)

P( A

B ) =P ( A
B ) =1P ( A B )
P( A

P ( A )+ P ( B )PA B
1[ ]
1[ 0.40+0.500.20 ]
10.70=0.30
c) P = exactamente a una junta =

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )

P ( A B )=0.40+0.500.40.5=0.70
8.Solucin
N = 600

P ( M Si ) =

a)

P ( M Si )=P ( M ) + P ( Si )P ( M Si )

b)

casos favorables 250 5

=
= =0.4166
casos posibles
600 12

303 362 250 415 83

+

=
=
=0.6 9
600 600 600 600 120
No )=P ( No )P ( M No )
P( M

c)

238 53 185

=
=0.30 8
600 600 600

9.Solucin
Rendimiento = A
Capacidad directiva = B

18 exelente
24 clara
A= 71 satisfactorio B= 40 posible
11 insatisfa ctorio
36 imposible
a)

P ( E C )=P ( E ) P (C )=0.180.24=0.043

b) Supuestos A y B son independientes

E y C son independientes
10.Solucin
A = se termina en la fecha
B =se termina en el segundo proyecto
A y B son independientes

P ( A B )=0.9
P ( A B ) =0.5
P ( A )=?
P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )=0.9 . 1
P ( A B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )=0.5 . 2
Despejando de P(B) de 2:

P (B)=

0.5
P( A)

Reemplazando en 1

P ( A )+

0.5
0.5=0. 9
P( A)

//*P(A)

P ( A )2+ 0.5=1.4 P ( A )
P ( A )21.4 P ( A ) +0.5=0
P ( A )=

1.4 1.424 ( 0.5 ) 1.4 0.2 0.8

=
=
2
2
0.6

11.Solucin

P ( A )=0.6
P ( B ) =0.8
P ( A B ) =0.4

a)

B ) =P ( B ) P ( A B )=0.80.4=0.4
P( A

P ( A B ) =P ( A )P ( A B )=0.60.4=0.2

b)

B ) =P ( A
B ) =1P ( A B )
P( A
P ( A )+ P ( B )PA B
1[ ]

1[ 0.6+0.80.4 ]
11=0.0
c)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )=0.6+0.80.4=1

d)

P ( A B ) P ( A B )=[ P ( A )P ( A B ) ][ P ( B )P ( A B ) ]
[ 0.60.4 ] [ 0080.4 ]

0.20.4=0.8

12.Solucin

P ( A )=0.6
P ( B ) =0.15

a)

P ( A c )=1P ( A )=10.60=0.4
0

b)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P
( A B )=0.6+ 0.15=0.75

c)

B ) =P ( A
B ) =1P ( A B ) =10.75=0.25
P( A

13.Solucin

P ( A )=0.5
P ( B ) =0.4
B ) =0.3
P( A

a)

B ) =0.3
P( A

1P ( A B )=0.3
P ( A B )=10.3=0.7
b)

P ( A B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )P ( A B )=0. 5+0. 40. 7=2

c)

P ( A B ) =P ( A )P ( A B )=0.50.2=0.3

d)

B ) =P ( B ) P ( A B )=0.40.2=0.2
P( A

e)

B ) =1P ( A B )
P( A
1[ P ( A )P ( A B ) ]

 1( 0.50.2 )=0.70
14.Solucin

P ( A )=0.4 P ( A B )=0.2
P ( B ) =0.5 P ( A C )=0.2
P (C )=0.7 P ( B C )=0.4
P ( A B C )=0. 1

a)

P ( A B C )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P ( C )P ( A B )P ( A C )
P ( B C ) + P( A B C)

0.4+ 0.5+ 0.70.20.20.4+0.1=1.70.8=0.9

b)

) =1P(C A B)

P( A B C
1[ P ( C )P ( A B C ) ]
1[ 0.70.1 ]
10.6=0.4

15.Solucin

P ( A 1 )=0. 22 P ( A 1 A2 ) =0. 11
P ( A 2 )=0. 2 5 P ( A 1 A3 ) =0. 05
P ( A 3 )=0.28 P ( A 2 A 3 )=0. 07
P ( A 1 A 2 A3 ) =0. 0 1

a)

P ( A 1 A2 ) =P ( A 1 ) + P ( A 2 )P ( A1 A2 ) =0.22+ 0.250.11=0.36

b)

A 2 ) =1P ( A 1 A 2)
P ( A 1 A 2 )=P ( A1

 10.11

0.89

c)

P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 ) =P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 )
1P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 )
10.01=0.99

d)

P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 )=P ( A1 A 2 A 3 )
1P ( A 1 A 2 A3 )
1[ P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + P ( A3 ) ( A1 A 2 )P ( A 1 A3 ) P ( A 2 A 3 )P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) ]
1[ 0.22+0.25+0.280.110.050.07+0.01 ]
10.53=0.47

e)

P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 )=P ( A3 ) P ( A 1 A 2 A3 )
P ( A 3 )[ P ( A1 A3 ) P ( A 1 A 2 A3 ) + P ( A 2 A3 ) P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 )+ P ( A 1 A2 A3 ) ]
P ( A 3 )P ( A1 A 3 ) P ( A 2 A3 ) + P ( A 1 A2 A3 )
0.280.050.07+ 0.01=0.1 7

f)

P ( A 1 A 2 ) A 3=1[ P ( A 1 A2 ) P ( A 1 A 3 ) + P ( A 2 A 3 )P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 ) ]
1[ 0.22+0.250.11( 0.05+0.070.01 ) ]
10.25=0.75

16.Solucin

P ( A )=0. 3
P ( B ) =0.2

P ( A B ) =0.1
P( B A) 0.1
=
=0.33
P( A)
0.3

a)

P ( B/ A )=

b)

P (A B)
P ( A )P( A B) 0.30.1 0.2
P ( B / A )=
=
=
=
=0.67
P( A)
P (A )
0.3
0.3

c)

)= P (B A) = P ( B )P ( A B) = 0.20.1 = 0.1 =0.14

P( B / A

1P ( A )
10.3 0.7
P( A)

17.Solucin

P (C / A )=0.8
P (C / B )=0. 4
A B=0

A B=S=1
P ( A )=0. 7

a)

P ( C / A )=

P ( A B )
=0.8
P(A)

P ( A B ) =0.8 ( 0.7 )=0.56

P (C /B )=

P ( B C )
=0.4
P (B)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )=1
P ( A B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )P ( A B )=0
P ( AB )=P ( A ) + P ( B )
1=0.7+ P ( B ) P ( B )=0.3
P ( B C )=0. 4 ( 0. 3 ) =0.12

P ( A B ) =10.70.3=0
P ( A )+ P ( B ) + P ( C )=1
P (C )=10.70.3=0 P (C )=0
b)

) = P( A C ) = P ( A )P( A C ) = 0.70.56 =0.14

P( A /C

1P( C)
10
P( C)

c)

P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B )=0. 7+0. 30=1

18.Solucin
N = 100

56 M
44 V

82 C
43 MC

a) X = Hombre soltero

P ( X )=

b)

X
5
=
=0.0 5
S 100
43
P ( M C ) 100
P ( M / C )=
=
=0. 524
82
P (C )
100

19.Solucin

P ( M ) =52
P ( H ) =48
P ( M I )=

1
125

P ( H I )=

5
32
M

total

1/125

0.3237

0.33175

0.512

5/32

0.6682

total
a)

P ( I )=

0.52

0.48

N de fav 0.33175
=
=0.33
N de pos
1

b)

P ( I / M )=

P(I M ) P ( M )P(M I )
=
=
P(M )
P(M )

c)

P ( I / H )=

P(I M ) 0.3237
=
=0.6743
P(M )
0.48

1
125
=0.9846
0.52

0.52

20.Solucin
4(3/8)
Mediana
0.1
Grande
0.2
total
0.3
A = compro raqueta mediana
B = compro raqueta mango 4.5
a)

4(1/2)
0.2
0.15
0.35

P ( A )=0.45
P ( B ) =0.35
P ( A B ) =0.20

b)

P ( A /B )=

P ( A B ) 0.2
=
=0.57
0.35
P (B)

P ( B/ A )=

P( B A) 0.2
=
=0.4 4
P( A)
0.45

c) C = por lo menos de 4(1/2)

P ( A /C )=

21.Solucin

P( A C) 0.2+0.15
=
=0.5
P (C)
0.35+0.35

4(5/8)
0.15
0.2
0.35

Total
0.45
0.55
1

P ( X )=0. 7
P (Y )=0. 5
P ( X Y )=0. 6

a)

)=1P ( X Y ) =0.6
P ( X Y

P ( X Y )=10.6=0.4
P ( X Y )=P ( X ) + P ( Y )P ( X Y )
0.7+0.50.40=0.8

b)

P(X Y ) P ( X )P( X Y ) 0.70.4 0.3 3

P ( Y / X )=
=
=
=
=
P(X )
P (X )
0.7
0.7 7

22.Solucin
a)

P (C )=

fav 180 18
=
=
pos 300 30

P (H )=

fav 120 12
=
=
pos 300 30

P ( A )=

fav 145 29
=
=
pos 300 60

d)

P (B)=

fav 155 31
=
=
pos 300 60

e)

P ( B C ) =P ( B ) + P ( C ) P ( B C )=

b)

c)

f)

95
P( A C) 300 95
P ( A /C )=
=
=
180 180
P (C)
300

15 180 85 250
+

=
300 300 300 300

g)

85
P(B C ) 300 85
P ( B/C )=
=
=
180 180
P (C)
300

h)

50
P ( H A) 300 50
P ( H / A )=
=
=
145 145
P( A)
300

i)

95
P(C A) 300 95
P (C / A )=
=
=
145 145
P( A)
300

23.Solucin
N = 2 A = {sale 2 en el 1 lanzamiento}
B = {sale 5 en el 2 lanzamiento}
a) Primer lanzamiento:

P ( A )=

fav 1
=
pos 6

N casos posibles 61 = 6

Segundo lanzamiento: N casos posibles 62 = 36

{[

]}

(1,1) ( 1,6)
S=

(6,1) ( 6,6)

P (B)=

fav 6 1
= =
pos 36 6

P ( A B)=

fav 1
=
pos 36

P ( A B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )
1
1
1 6
1
=
=
36
6
36

 A y B son independientes

b)

1
1
6
1
P (2 y 5 )=P ( A B )=P ( A ) P ( B )=
=
6
36

24.Solucin

P ( A )=0. 6
P ( B ) =0. 9
P ( A /B )=0. 046

P ( A /B )=

P ( A B)
=0.046
P (B)

P ( A B ) =0.0460.9=0.0414

a)

P ( A ) P ( B )=0.60.9=0.54
P ( A B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )
0.0414 0.54

A y B no son independientes
b)

B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )
P( A
/ B )=
P( A

B)
P( A
=10.046=0.954
P (B )

B ) =P ( B ) P ( A /B )=0.90.954=0.8586
P( A
) P ( B )=(10.6)0.9=0.36
P( A

B ) =P ( A ) P ( B )
P( A
0.8586 0.36

y B no son independiente s
A
25.-

Solucin

3
2
5
6
P ( ambos contenganT . tiroides ) =P ( T 1 ) P ( T 2 )=
= =0.20
6
30

a)

( 35 )(1 62 )= 154 =0.26

P ( ningunocontengaT .tiroides )= 1

b)

P ( diferentes tabletas )=

c)

( 52 )( 26 )+( 52 )( 16 )+( 35 )( 36 )+( 35 )( 16 )= 1830 =0.60

26.
Solucin

G1=

{
{

18
V
42
V 27
57
9
(M)
27
17
V
15
27
M
57
10
(M)
27

P ( M ) =P ( V ) P ( M / V ) + P ( M ) P ( M / M )
42
15
9
10
57
57

+
27
27
0.2456+0.097=0.34 3
27.Solucin
2D
5B
N=8
R = 2 (sin reemplazo)

a)

2 5
(
2)( 0 ) 1
P ( X=2 D )=
=
7
(2) 27

b)

V V
25 5
P ( X 1=1 D , X 2=1 B ) = 1 7 1 =
=
42 21
V2

c)

2 5
(
1 )( 1 ) 25 10
P ( X =2 D , X =1 B ) =
=
=
21 21
7
( 2)

28.Solucin
P(p)=1/3
P(ae)=2/3

P(t/p)=0.7
P(t/ae)=0.95

{
a)

{
( )
{

1
p
3

0.7

( pt )

0.3

t
p

t
2
ae
ae
3
t
0.05
ae
0.95

P (t )=P ( p ) P ( t / p ) + P ( ae ) P ( t /ae )
1
2
( 0.70 ) + ( 0.95 )
3
3
0.233+0.633=0.866=86.6

b)

P ( p ) P (t / p )
P ( p / t )=
P ( t )

P ( p /t )=

P ( p ) P ( t / p )
P ( p ) P (t / p ) P ( ae ) P (t /ae )

1
( 0.3 )
3
0.10
P ( pt )=
=
=0.75=75
1
2
0.133
( 0.3 ) + ( 0.05 )
3
3
29.Solucin

{
{
{

0.4 J 0.02 ( E /J )
0.98 E /J
0.3 P 0.06 ( E /P )
0.94 E /P
0.3 M 0.01 ( E /M )
0.99 E /M

P (M / E)=

P ( M ) P ( M / E)
P( E )

P ( E )=P ( J ) P ( E/ J ) + P ( p ) P ( E/ p ) + P ( M ) P ( E/ M )
0.40.02+0.30.06+0.30.01=0.029

P (M / E)=

0.30.01
=0.103=10.3
0.029

30.Solucin
A = 100
B = 200
N = 300
a)

D/A=0.05
D/B=0.06

P ( A )=

100 1
200 2
= P( B)=
=
300 3
300 3

1
A
3

2
B
3

{
{

0.05

( DA )

0.95

0.06

D
A

( DB )

0.94

D
B

P ( D )=P ( A ) P ( D/ A ) + P ( B ) P ( D/B )
1
2
( 0.05 ) + ( 0.06 ) =0.05 6
3
3
1
0.0 5
P ( A ) P ( D/ A ) 3
P ( A / D )=
=
=0.297
0.0 56
P ( D)

b)

31.Solucin
S1 = 2000
S2 = 1200
S3 = 800
N = 4000

D/S1 = 2%
D/S2 = 0.9%
D/S3 = 1.2%

{
{
{

0.02

0.5 S 1

0.3 S 2

0.2 S 3

( SD1 )

D
S1

0.98

0.009

( SD2 )

0.991

0.012

D
S2

( SD3 )

0.988

D
S3

a)

P ( D )=P ( S 1 ) P ( D /S 1 ) + P ( S 2 ) P ( D /S 2 ) + P ( S 3 ) P ( D/S 3 )
0.50.02+ 0.30.009+ 0.20.012=0.015 1

b)

c)

d)

P( D)=1P(
D)=10.0151=0.9849
D/ S 3

P ( S 3) P
P ( S 3 D ) =

) = P ( S 1 ) P ( D/S 1 ) = 0.50.98 =0.4975

P ( S 1/ D
)
0.9849
P(D

32.Solucin

A P ( D/ A )=0.2
B P ( D / B ) =0.1
C P ( D/ C )=0.3
P ( B ) =P ( A )+ P ( C )=2 P ( C ) P ( A )=P(C)
Se sabe que : P ( Xi ) =1
P ( A )+ P ( B ) + P ( C )=1
P (C ) +2 P ( C )+ P ( C )=1
1
1
1
4 P ( C )=1 P ( C ) = ; P ( B )= ; P ( A )=
4
2
4

{
{
{

D
(
A)
0.25 A

D
0.8 ( )
A
D
0.1 ( )
B
0.5 B

D
0.9 ( )
B
D
0.3 ( )
C
0.25 C

D
0.7 ( )
C
0.2

P ( B/ D ) =

P ( B ) P ( D/B )
P ( D)

P(B) P( D/ B)
P ( A ) P ( D / A )+ P ( B ) P ( D/ B ) + P (C ) P ( D /C )

1
0.1
2
0.05

=
=0.28 5
1
1
1
0.175
0.2+ 0.1+ 0.3
4
2
4
33.Solucin
P(T) = 0.75
P(R) = 0.25
a)

P(E/T) = 0.80
P(E/R) = 0.60

P (T E )=P ( T ) P ( E/T )
0.750.80=0.60

0.75 T

b)

( ET )

0.20

0.60

0.25 R

c)

{
{

0.80

E
T

( ER )

0.40

E
R

P ( E )=P ( T ) P(ET )+ P(R)P(ER)

0.75 ( 0.8 ) +0.25 ( 0.6 )

0.6+0.15=0.7 5
33.Solucin
Aumentos = P(A) = 0.60
Reducciones = P(B) = 0.40

{
{

C/A = 0.93
C/R = 0.98

C
A
0.60 A
C
0.07
A
0.93

( )

C
R
0.40 B

C
0.02
R
0.98

( )

)= P ( R) P (C / R)
P( R /C
)
P (C

P (C )=P ( A ) P ( C / A ) + P ( R ) P ( C /R )
0.6 ( 0.07 ) +0.4 ( 0.02 )=0.05
)=
P( R / C

0.40 (0.02)
=0.16
0.05

35.Solucin
2C
0.25
0.32
0.57

M
Q
total
a)

P ( M ) =0.41
P (Q )=0.59
P (2 C )=0.57
P ( 4 C )=0.43

b)

P (Q 2 C ) =

0.32
=0.32=32
1

0.41
=0.41=41
1

c)

P (M )=

d)

P ( 4 C /Q )=

P (4 C Q) 0.27
=
=0.457
P(Q)
0.59

36.Solucin

A 3 V B 2 V C 1V
2 CH 3 CH 2CH

4C
0.16
0.27
0.43

Total
0.41
0.59
1

{
{
{

3
V
1
A 5
3
2
( CH )
5
2
V
1
B 5
3 3
( CH )
5
1
V
1
3
C
3
2
(CH )
3

P ( X=CH )=P ( A ) P ( CH / A ) + P ( B ) P ( CH /B ) + P ( C ) P (CH / C )

1
1
1
2
3
2
3
3
3

+
+
5
5
3

2+3 2
+ =0.55 5
15 9