UPI/CVoterPoll

PresidentialTracker2016

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IftheU.S.presidentialelectionswereheldtoday,whichcandidatewouldyouvotefor?
(Closedendedoptions:DonaldTrump/HillaryClinton/OtherCandidate/Willvote,
butundecidedrightnow/Iwillnotvoteincomingelections).Resultsofrollover
samplesoflast7daysendingon:
Date
7/14/2016
7/15/2016
7/16/2016
7/17/2016
7/18/2016
7/19/2016
7/20/2016
7/21/2016
7/22/2016
7/23/2016
7/24/2016
7/25/2016
7/26/2016
7/27/2016
7/28/2016
7/29/2016
7/30/2016
7/31/2016

Clinton
43.5
44.2
44.4
45.2
44.7
44.7
44.5
44.0
43.8
44.1
44.4
44.8
45.0
45.8
46.3
47.3
47.4
49.0

Trump
42.1
39.7
38.7
39.4
41.2
43.0
45.1
47.1
48.2
48.9
49.2
49.1
49.0
48.9
48.5
47.8
47.6
46.1

Others
14.5
16.1
16.9
15.4
14.1
12.3
10.4
8.9
8.0
7.1
6.4
6.1
6.0
5.3
5.2
4.9
5.0
4.9

Currentprojectionsbased onUPICVoterdailytrackingpollconductedonlinefromJuly25toJuly
31, 2016 among 1308adults nationwide,including989likelyvoters.Thedataisweightedtothe
known demographic profile of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table
figuresdonotsumto100duetotheeffectsofrounding.

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Methodology&TrackerDetails
Statisticalmarginsoferror are notapplicabletoonline polls.Theprecisionofonlinepollsis
measuredusing acredibilityinterval.Theerrorduetosamplingforprojectionsbased onthe
Likely Voter sample could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and
plusorminus5percentagepointsatstatelevel.Allsamplesurveysandpollsmaybesubject
to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement
error.
Rather than conducting a regular survey with one single wave of approximately 1,400
respondents every week, we are interviewing about 200 respondents daily. We make a
rollover master file every dayfrom thesamplescollectedin thelast7days. Thisgives usa
new sample of about 1,400 every day. Thus rather than a routine weekly tracker, the
UPICVoterPollisadailytracker,givingthepublicopiniontrendsonadailybasis.
We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaignuntil Election Day.
The data collectionstartedJuly8andwillcontinueuntilNov.7.Technicallyspeaking,weare
conducting 17 weekly waves of 1,400 respondents each. But by splitting thatsample into
200 interviews every day, and making one rollover file of the last 7 days every day, we
would be able to do 100 waves of 1,400 samples each. In other words, this gives us an
opportunityofanalyzefreshdata daily for theremainderofthecampaignthroughElection
Day.
We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platform, both online & offline, and
eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the
Presidential Tracker weemploy multiple providersof panelsto randomizeandremovethe
contactbiasofany one particularsampleprovider,if any.Justlikeinour2012 presidential
polls, our exclusive Psephometer algorithm willbeupdatedeveryday,sowewill havethe
national projection, as well as the state level projections on a daily basis. This will be a
uniquetrackerfromthatperspective.
Whatissues/itemsarewecoveringinourPresidentialTracker?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Nationalvoteprojection
Projectionsfor50states
Timelinefortheswingstates
Tenmostimportantissues:Topofmindrecall
Whocansolvethisparticularissue:TrumporClinton
Perceptionsofwinning:Whoisseenaswinningasoftoday
Countrygoinginrightorwrongdirection
WhichofthesecandidatesyoufeellikeyouwillNEVERvotefor
TrackingtheBernieSanderssupporters
10. TrackingnonTrumpRepublicansvoters
Contact:
YashwantDeshmukh,Editor,CVoterInternational:yashwant@teamcvoter.com
CharlenePacenti,ChiefContentOfficer,UPI:cpacenti@upi.com

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August1,2016

ClintonleadsTrumpby3pointsafterDNC
UPI/CVoter Election Tracker 2016clearlyindicates that thepost DNCbump
forHillaryhasovershadowedthegainsmadebyDonaldTrumpafterRNC.
Washington, D.C.(UPI)Daysafter theendof theDemocraticNationalConvention,Hillary
Clinton is ahead of Republican Donald Trump by nearly 3 points in a UPI/CVoter poll
releasedMonday.
The Democraticnomineehada2.9percentagepointleadinthe pollconducted sevendays
throughSunday, with 49 percent support to Trump's 46.1 percent. Voters who preferred
"other" candidates represented 4.9 percent, a figure that had declinedsignificantlyin the
pasttwoweeks.
Before the Democratic National Convention, held July 2528 in Philadelphia, Trump had
taken a 4.8point lead, 49.2 percent to 44.4 percent. That's a 7.7 percentage point swing
sincetheRepublicanNationalConvention,heldJuly1821inCleveland.
The day aftertheDNC ended, the race wasnearlydeadlockedwith47.8percentforTrump
and47.3forClinton.
Beforeboth conventions, Clintonhada5.8pointadvantage, 45.2percentto39.4percentas
of July 17. Atthat point,15.4percent listedother more than10 percentagepoints from
thecurrentpoll.
In the latest sample, 1,308adultsnationwidewerepolledonline,including989likelyvoters,
fromJuly25throughSunday.Thepollhasamarginoferrorof3percent.
In RealClear Politics average of polls from July 22 throughSunday, Clinton shows a lead,
44.9 percent to 42.7 percent. Going into the DNC convention, the two were nearly
deadlockedwitha.2percentagepointadvantageforTrumpoverninedays.
The latest RCP average shows Clintons lead over Trump at 2 points. Nate Silvers Polls
Only aggregation shows Clintons lead at 1 point. The HuffPosts Pollser model shows a
5pointleadforClinton.

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